SB Nation User Blog: fwembt

Some Amateur Fausto Analysis

fwembt — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 21:49:41 -0000

I originally only posted this as a comment but, with today's developments, I decided to take the plunge and make it a FanPost.

I asked my brother (himself a pretty good pitcher in college) about this. I was mostly curious as to the drop and slight lateral move of his release point, his increased reliance on the sinker instead of the slider, and his loss in velocity (down nearly two miles an hour) and here is what he said:

"1. A later release point is usually a good thing; it’s a sign that a pitcher is firing his front side later, enabling him to keep his weight back and be more explosive through his release. For an extreme sinkerballer, movement on the pitches comes from having a slight amount of arm drag, which comes from having the front side open a little earlier. This results in more strain on the arm and side (just ask Jake Westbrook and his elbow) and is also the reason you never see a sinkerballer with a high leg follow through. The tighter, lower release point would indicate to me not that Fausto is releasing later, but that his front side is clearing sooner. This increases arm drag, which leads us right to…

2. His velo is down, probably because having his front side open sooner lengthens the process of delivering the ball, particularly weight transfer. This makes him less explosive to the plate and slows his arm down, which in turn slows the ball down. Speaking of which…

3. Fausto can’t find the zone because his ball is going everywhere. These are really the same problem. Because he is open earlier, his arm comes in and down in an effort to catch up to his body. The increased lateral motion of his arm at the moment of release gives him more and increasingly horizontal spin on the baseball. Because both his release point and movement are radically different than they have been in the past, he effectively has no idea what is going to happen when he lets go of the ball.

4. I would speculate that Fausto’s decreased arsenal stems from his command issues in two ways: first, he has less confidence in everything he throws, so he goes back to the pitch he trusts the most. Second, his new release point would kill both a slider and a cutter. Since he is effectively releasing from inside the plane of his torso now, he would have to "push" either pitch against the momentum of his arm to put it anywhere outside of the left-handed batter’s box. This results more hangers, which results in more home runs and less confidence.

I again hesitate to say the whole deal is fatigue. If his hip has been bothering him for longer than he has let on, i.e., since he started sucking (again), I think he has probably adjusted his mechanics to take the pressure off of that. That puts the arm farther behind the body, brings the plane of the arm in and down, lowers and brings the release point in, and gives us our current Fausto. Might as well shut him down or carve on him; he’s not doing us any good trying to fight through it.

I’m not totally giving up on him, but he needs some serious work. He’s gotta have enough confidence in his hip to plant his front foot back inside where it used to be, bringing his arm slot back up and giving him the assortment of pitches he’s had since he started throwing. Shut him down, then let him finish the year in AAA. Clifton P. Lee is back from the dead, if Fausto has the makeup to do the same thing, might as well let him give it a go."

An open letter.

fwembt — Sun, 31 May 2009 06:00:58 -0000

Friends,

Over the next few days you are going to feel pretty depressed. Once again, one of our teams has been eliminated from the playoffs. AM radio will tell you that we were cursed, the television will tell you that the calls, and the bounces, were always destined to not go our way. Your friends will talk about how they knew this was going to happen, and your family will dejectedly moan about how the Indians, Cavs and Browns are heading down the same road they always do.

I just have one simple request for you. Ignore them. We aren't cursed, no one conspired agaisnt us and it wasn't fate. We lost, it happens. Enjoy this season for what it was. We had 66 wins, the MVP, and national media coverage. Our team was the lead on ESPN, our team destroyed anyone who came into our city, our team played as hard as they could, every moment of the year.

This team brought together fans as disparate as my 92 year old grandmother and Jay-Z, this team brought some life back into a town that deserves it, this team was something to be proud of.

So, fellow Clevlanders, remember that the sun also rises, there will be a tomorrow. And you know what? Wait 'til next year. Next year, we'll get them. Forget the negativity, we've come back from far worse in the past. Screw this, (next year) we're winning.

Since then, Barfield has been relegated mostly to Triple-A games. Unless he learns to play...

fwembt — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 03:08:33 -0000

Since then, Barfield has been relegated mostly to Triple-A games. Unless he learns to play something other than second, his career probably will remain stalled. But he has shown promise taking ground balls at third and chasing fly balls in the outfield.

In fact Wedge has said, ''Barfield is a good center fielder right now, and he can play all three spots.''

Sheldon Ocker ruminates on utility players

Winslow not suspended, not playing

fwembt — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 02:32:37 -0000

Winslow not suspended, not playing

Well done, everyone. Now we are missing our best player and didn't even suspend him. Tremendous.

The next Cleveland Indian

fwembt — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 13:14:34 -0000

The next Cleveland Indian

Great beard, steely determination, pictures of him doing gritty things. Wedge won't even care that he doesn't actually play baseball.

Tigers Sign Fultz

fwembt — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 22:04:18 -0000

Tigers Sign Fultz

The Tigers pick up our scraps. I think that about sums it.

OT: New Addition to LGT Family

fwembt — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 19:38:15 -0000

Hope Ivy was born on Dec. 10th at 10pm. Both mother and baby are doing well and are finally back home. Thanks much to all of you who offered your condolences at the start of the year and have kept us in your thoughts and prayers until this extremely happy day. Her first real cry came when ESPN showed highlights of the ALCS. Another Indians fan has been indoctrinated.

Indians v. Yankees. Position by Position

fwembt — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 02:47:34 -0000

The ALDS starts on either Wednesday or Thursday so I took it upon myself to compare the Indians to the Yankees at every position. For the purposes of this I took the three frontline starters, top three relievers, top five bench players and the entire lineup. (All statistics before Saturday's game)

Starters: (W-L, ERA, PRC)

CLE- Sabathia (19-7, 3.21, 131), Carmona (19-8, 3.06, 116), Westbrook (6-9, 4.32, 56).

NYY- Wang (19-7, 3.70, 90), Pettitte (14-9, 3.81, 92), Clemens (6-6, 4.18, 38).

Even Suzyn Waldman would admit that the Indians have the best one-two in the league. Clemens may have a slight margin over Westbrook but neither has been brilliant. If a fourth starter is needed Paul Byrd will give a slight advantage over Mussian or Hughes. The PRC of Sabathia and Carmona is astounding. This one is easy.

Edge: Cleveland

Relief Pitching (ERA, WHIP, FIP, LOB%)

CLE- Lewis (2.20, 1.22, 2.58, 80.9%), Perez (1.66, .89, 3.08, 84.8%), Betancourt (1.47, .76, 2.25, 86.4%).

NYY- Vizcaino (4.30, 1.45, 4.12, 72.1%), Farnsworth (4.73, 1.46, 4.92, 70.3%), Chamberlain (.38, .76, 1.94, 96.6%).

The state of affairs in the Yankee bullpen is such that Vizcaino and Farnsworth are one and three in appearances. For the Indians, the bullpen has made a tremendous impact on the season. Innings 7 and 8 will be split between Lewis, Perez and Betancourt. Loathe as we may be to admit, Chamberlain has been fantastic. Still, this one is not that close.

Major Edge: Cleveland

Closer (ERA, SV, FIP, WHIP)

CLE- Borowski (5.15, 44, 4.12, 1.44)

NYY- Rivera (3.15, 30, 2.71, 1.12)

Borowski allows way too many baserunners. While this may the product of a high BABip, it doesn't really matter, nearly a runner and a half reach per inning. Rivera has not been as dominant in the past but he has been better than Borowski.

Edge: New York

First Base (BA/OBP/SLG, HR, RC)

CLE- Garko (291/361/485, 21, 72)

NYY- Mientkiewicz (272/343/432, 5, 24)

Mientkiewicz has taken most of the time at 1st away from Andy Phillips. He has hit at a decent rate but for basically no power. Garko has been a nice surprise by continuing last year's success. His defense is not as good as Mientkiewicz but the Yankee has lost a bit and Garko is no slouch.

Edge: Cleveland

Second Base

CLE- Cabrera (279/345/422, 3, 25)

NYY- Cano (306/353/487, 19, 95)

We all love Asdrubal but he has not had a full year to contribute. Cano has been fantastic again. Cabrera is considerably better in the field but Cano just rakes.

Edge: New York

Shortstop

CLE- Peralta (270/341/432, 21, 85)

NYY- Jeter (322/387/449, 12, 113)

For all the hype, Jeter is not a noticeably better hitter than Jhonny. Jhonny has more pop in his bat and is more patient at the plate. Jeter will hit a few more doubles and triples. In the field there is also little difference. Both players have a mediocre RZR but Peralta has made nearly twice as many plays outside of his zone (OOZ).

Edge: Push

Third Base

Blake- (269/337/437, 18, 68)

A-Rod- (312/420/644, 54, 161)

We love you Casey but this is no contest. A-Rod is arguably the best player in the game.

Major Edge: NYY

Outfield

CLE- Lofton (298/369/413, 7, 79), Sizemore (280/393/466, 24, 124), Gutierrez (264/317/475, 13, 36).

NYY- Matsui (285/367/488, 25, 93), Cabrera (274/328/392, 8, 71), Abreu (283/368/447, 16, 102).

This ended up being closer than I thought. The defensive edge is all to the Indians, who employ three center fielders. The Yankees are average at best in the field. The Yankee outfield is renowned for really crushing the ball but actually posts a lower slugging in two of the three spots.

Edge: Push

Catcher:

CLE-Martinez (298/371/504, 25, 106)

NYY- Posada (337/426/544, 20, 100)

Posada is having a career year. Martinez just keeps getting better. Neither is great at shutting down the running game but both are quite competent. Both will hit to the alleys with decent power. This is as close as a position as there is on the field. Shoppach will see time here if Byrd starts, whether or not this is a good thing is debatable.

Edge: Push, again

Designated Hitter

CLE- Hafner (264/384/449, 24, 93).

NYY- Giambi (232/349/431, 14, 39), Damon (270/351/396, 12, 85).

Nothing overwhelming here, which is a real dissapointment for the Indians. Giambi and Damon will both see some time here, with Damon also playing in the outfield. If Hafner gets hot he can carry a team, the same can not be said of either Yankee.

Edge: Cleveland

Bench

CLE- Micheals, Nixon, Barfield, Shoppach, Gomez.

NYY- Betemit, Duncan, Molina, Phillips, Giambi/Damon.

J-Mike and JBarf both spent some time starting this year. The Giambi/Damon player off the bench for the Yankees will also have some time starting. Betemit is a more powerful version of Gomez who does not make contact as frequently. Shoppach and Molina both can hit a bit but Shoppach supplies more power. There is no real standout player on either bench.

Edge: Push

Prediction: Indians in 3. The Yankees can hit but the advantage is not so big as the national news media would have you think. The pitching is a marked advantage for the Indians. Sabathia and Carmona are the best one-two the Indians have ever sent to the playoffs. Five years ago, Clemens against Westbrook would have been a nightmare matchup for the Indians, now it is a very winnable game.

[This is just a skeletal rundown. There are players who may appear for an inning or two whom I have not mentioned. All statistics are from The Hardball Times, all player positions used for projection of lineups are from ESPN.]

Poll

Outcome of the Series?

Indians in 5

25 votes

Yankees in 3

3 votes

Yankees in 4

6 votes

Yankees in 5

3 votes

Indians in 3

12 votes

Indians in 4

61 votes

110 votes | Poll has closed

Nickname Forcing

fwembt — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 05:12:57 -0000

Hello assembled gentlemen and lady, I'm Brad and I am here to discuss a recent outbreak of that most horrednous disease, Nickname Forcing. This disease is at times known as Chris Bermanism or ESPNitis. Known sufferers are Linda Cohn, Stuart Scott and the namesake of the disease, Chris Berman.

The danger of this scourge is that it leads to a bunch of grown men (and woman) sounding like nothing more than a bunch of junior high kids, trying desperately to be cool. While it has been established that there is nothing cooler than a nickname that just seems to flow (ie. The Wizard of Oz) it has also been established that nothing sounds so stupid as a nickname that is forced (ie. Curtis "My Favorite" Martin).

I plead with you, the kind citizens of LGT, to not fall into the plague of ESPN with the rest of the world. Do not succumb to the pressure to give Ben Francisco a nickname, do not call Grady anything but Grady, don't be Linda Cohn and call Victor Martinez "V-Mart." I pray of you, let us rise above the fray. Let us call players by the names that their parents argued over for so long before bestowing them.

I leave it to you, my friends, to keep this a place free of this horrific malady. Only you can prevent Nickname Forcing.

Season so far.

fwembt — Sat, 14 Oct 2006 03:42:31 -0000

Pro:

Charlie Frye- Frye has been completing over 62% his passes. He has a QB rating higher than Ben Roethlisberger, Steve McNair and Jake Plummer. He has thrown 5 td's despite being sacked 16 times and spending more time running than your average felon. He has been cool in the pocket (when there has been one) and has shown good leadership according to his teammates. Bernie Kosar, in an interview on WTAM, said that Frye has all the tools and needs a decent line to protect him. Bernie said that Frye has a chance to be great if he can stay on his feet.

Defense- The defense has, with the exception of the Cincy game, been pretty good. They have kept us in every game despite spending a ridiculous amount of time on the field almost every game. Ralph Brown sucks but other than him the secondary has done quite well despite injuries. Sean Jones and Brodney Pool have both been outstanding.

Kellen Winslow/Braylon Edwards- Finally healthy, putting up the numbers that everyone thought they could. They have combined for 50 catches, 593 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Special Teams- Given the practice Zastudil gets he should be good. Cribbs leads the league in kickoff return average and Northcutt leads the league in punt return average.

Con:

Playcalling- Started the first week with Carthon calling fullback sweeps on 3rd and 1...twice. The play calling has been astonishingly conservative given we have playmakers all over the place. This week Carthon decided to mix things up by throwing in a fullback pass on the goalline. Moronic play call. Chris Palmer showed more guts than this guy. It seems like we are content to dink and dunk without ever trying anything down the field. In the 21 games that Carthon has been the coordinator the Browns have been the lowest scoring team in football.

Running- Droughns has been hurt and inconsistent when he is in. The next problem is probably what is hurting the running game.

Offensive line- These guys suck. Frye has been sacked 16 times but seems to get hit on nearly every passing attempt. Frye is constantly being sacked on 3 step drops and in the midst of handoff attempts. I know very little about the intricacies of football but I know a sack on a running play is a very bad thing. The line has had plenty of time to "gel," this is a matter of a lack of talent. They have been little better when it comes ot clearing holes to run. Droughns gained 6 yards after first contact on one play last week, sadly he only made one yard past the line of scrimmage.

Charlie Frye- Much as I am a Charlie Frye apologist I will admit that he has made some really, really bad decisions this year. He has thrown nine interceptions but, in his defense, four have bounced off of his receivers hands and one smoked Droughns in the head. The interception in the end zone against Baltimore quite probably cost us the game and one in Oakland would have had the same effect had the defense not tightened down. Bernie said much the same thing when he said the only thing keeping Charlie from being great was his decision making (and the O-line of course). Bernie is of the opinion that Charlie will learn and get better. One can only hope.

Sorry this is rather poorly written. I put it on Facebook first and didn't bother proofing it.