SB Nation User Blog: fwembt

2009 Predictions

fwembt — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 02:50:49 -0000

It's that time of year when we all sit down, gather up the papers and the internets, and start prognosticating. Think this is the year? Think we may never win again? Think we'd be better off with a roster comprised entirely of fullbacks? Here's your chance to get that down in ink. Just as a template, I'll be picking final record, pleasant surprise and crushing disappointment.

Final Record: 6-10.

Right after I fearlessly predicted (last night) that we would suck, I decided to actually look at the schedule. The schedule, it just so happens, is really soft. I think Pittsburgh beats us twice, we split with Baltimore, and we sweep the Bengals. That leaves us 3-3 in division, which isn't awful. I think we can beat Buffalo, Detroit, and Kansas City on the road. Oakland is absolutely awful and should be a win in Cleveland. If you are paying very close attention, you'll notice that is seven wins, where I previously stated six. I'm assuming that, somewhere along the line, we'll lose a game we should, or could, win. I fear Kansas City and would be disgusted were it Cincinnati.

Pleasant Surprise: Mike Furrey.

I'll confess, I really expected nothing out of Furrey coming into training camp. For starters, he is associated with Detroit, not a lovely place anyway and certainly not if you played for the worst team in football history. Secondly, he was hurt and missed a significant amount of time last year. Now, after the preseason, Marla Ridenour has christened him "First Down" Furrey. While I hate contrived and prosaic nicknames, I think Furrey has a chance to play something of a Brian Brennan role in this offense.

Crushing Disappointment: Losing to Denver, again.

I hate Denver. I don't that can be said enough. I loathe Denver. My first memories of Browns football are being surrounded by Broncos fans for The Drive and The Fumble. Denver has become a symbol of everything that is wrong in this world to me. Sadly, I just don't see us going there and beating them. And that makes me feel like crying, again.

General Thoughts:

I think this Browns team is better than most of the mainstream media thinks it is. That said, I don't think it is good. There are too many questions at too many important positions for this team to actually make a push for anything.

I'm on record (lots of records, really) as saying I prefer Derek Anderson to Brady Quinn. With that out there, allow me to posit that I think Quinn can be a very good quarterback in this system. It seems like our offensive schemes are more geared to Quinn's skill set (accuracy, good reads) than Anderson's (throwing the ball very hard, regardless of circumstance) anyway.

Jamal Lewis may want all of us to think he's saving something for the regular season, but I'm not buying. He looks slow in preseason games, people who know say he looks slow in camp. That's not the sign of a back that is going to do anything this year. 1,100 yards at 3.2 YPC isn't going to do it for us. I think RB is a position of weakness on this team and it's going to take more than James Davis to fix that. Jerome Harrison is a rooster illusion at this point.

I'm excited with the things being done here. I wasn't a big Romeo fan near the end (who was?) and I think Mangini is taking the the right. I don't love the completely pointless secrecy around the starting QB, but it's his team, not mine.

Poll

What do you think the Browns record will be?

10-6 or better

21 votes

9-7

21 votes

8-8

37 votes

7-9

55 votes

6-10

33 votes

5-11

25 votes

4-12 or worse

32 votes

224 votes | Poll has closed

Some Amateur Fausto Analysis

fwembt — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 21:49:41 -0000

I originally only posted this as a comment but, with today's developments, I decided to take the plunge and make it a FanPost.

I asked my brother (himself a pretty good pitcher in college) about this. I was mostly curious as to the drop and slight lateral move of his release point, his increased reliance on the sinker instead of the slider, and his loss in velocity (down nearly two miles an hour) and here is what he said:

"1. A later release point is usually a good thing; it’s a sign that a pitcher is firing his front side later, enabling him to keep his weight back and be more explosive through his release. For an extreme sinkerballer, movement on the pitches comes from having a slight amount of arm drag, which comes from having the front side open a little earlier. This results in more strain on the arm and side (just ask Jake Westbrook and his elbow) and is also the reason you never see a sinkerballer with a high leg follow through. The tighter, lower release point would indicate to me not that Fausto is releasing later, but that his front side is clearing sooner. This increases arm drag, which leads us right to…

2. His velo is down, probably because having his front side open sooner lengthens the process of delivering the ball, particularly weight transfer. This makes him less explosive to the plate and slows his arm down, which in turn slows the ball down. Speaking of which…

3. Fausto can’t find the zone because his ball is going everywhere. These are really the same problem. Because he is open earlier, his arm comes in and down in an effort to catch up to his body. The increased lateral motion of his arm at the moment of release gives him more and increasingly horizontal spin on the baseball. Because both his release point and movement are radically different than they have been in the past, he effectively has no idea what is going to happen when he lets go of the ball.

4. I would speculate that Fausto’s decreased arsenal stems from his command issues in two ways: first, he has less confidence in everything he throws, so he goes back to the pitch he trusts the most. Second, his new release point would kill both a slider and a cutter. Since he is effectively releasing from inside the plane of his torso now, he would have to "push" either pitch against the momentum of his arm to put it anywhere outside of the left-handed batter’s box. This results more hangers, which results in more home runs and less confidence.

I again hesitate to say the whole deal is fatigue. If his hip has been bothering him for longer than he has let on, i.e., since he started sucking (again), I think he has probably adjusted his mechanics to take the pressure off of that. That puts the arm farther behind the body, brings the plane of the arm in and down, lowers and brings the release point in, and gives us our current Fausto. Might as well shut him down or carve on him; he’s not doing us any good trying to fight through it.

I’m not totally giving up on him, but he needs some serious work. He’s gotta have enough confidence in his hip to plant his front foot back inside where it used to be, bringing his arm slot back up and giving him the assortment of pitches he’s had since he started throwing. Shut him down, then let him finish the year in AAA. Clifton P. Lee is back from the dead, if Fausto has the makeup to do the same thing, might as well let him give it a go."

An open letter.

fwembt — Sun, 31 May 2009 06:00:58 -0000

Friends,

Over the next few days you are going to feel pretty depressed. Once again, one of our teams has been eliminated from the playoffs. AM radio will tell you that we were cursed, the television will tell you that the calls, and the bounces, were always destined to not go our way. Your friends will talk about how they knew this was going to happen, and your family will dejectedly moan about how the Indians, Cavs and Browns are heading down the same road they always do.

I just have one simple request for you. Ignore them. We aren't cursed, no one conspired agaisnt us and it wasn't fate. We lost, it happens. Enjoy this season for what it was. We had 66 wins, the MVP, and national media coverage. Our team was the lead on ESPN, our team destroyed anyone who came into our city, our team played as hard as they could, every moment of the year.

This team brought together fans as disparate as my 92 year old grandmother and Jay-Z, this team brought some life back into a town that deserves it, this team was something to be proud of.

So, fellow Clevlanders, remember that the sun also rises, there will be a tomorrow. And you know what? Wait 'til next year. Next year, we'll get them. Forget the negativity, we've come back from far worse in the past. Screw this, (next year) we're winning.

Since then, Barfield has been relegated mostly to Triple-A games. Unless he learns to play...

fwembt — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 03:08:33 -0000

Since then, Barfield has been relegated mostly to Triple-A games. Unless he learns to play something other than second, his career probably will remain stalled. But he has shown promise taking ground balls at third and chasing fly balls in the outfield.

In fact Wedge has said, ''Barfield is a good center fielder right now, and he can play all three spots.''

Sheldon Ocker ruminates on utility players

Winslow not suspended, not playing

fwembt — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 02:32:37 -0000

Winslow not suspended, not playing

Well done, everyone. Now we are missing our best player and didn't even suspend him. Tremendous.

The next Cleveland Indian

fwembt — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 13:14:34 -0000

The next Cleveland Indian

Great beard, steely determination, pictures of him doing gritty things. Wedge won't even care that he doesn't actually play baseball.

Tigers Sign Fultz

fwembt — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 22:04:18 -0000

Tigers Sign Fultz

The Tigers pick up our scraps. I think that about sums it.

OT: New Addition to LGT Family

fwembt — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 19:38:15 -0000

Hope Ivy was born on Dec. 10th at 10pm. Both mother and baby are doing well and are finally back home. Thanks much to all of you who offered your condolences at the start of the year and have kept us in your thoughts and prayers until this extremely happy day. Her first real cry came when ESPN showed highlights of the ALCS. Another Indians fan has been indoctrinated.

Indians v. Yankees. Position by Position

fwembt — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 02:47:34 -0000

The ALDS starts on either Wednesday or Thursday so I took it upon myself to compare the Indians to the Yankees at every position. For the purposes of this I took the three frontline starters, top three relievers, top five bench players and the entire lineup. (All statistics before Saturday's game)

Starters: (W-L, ERA, PRC)

CLE- Sabathia (19-7, 3.21, 131), Carmona (19-8, 3.06, 116), Westbrook (6-9, 4.32, 56).

NYY- Wang (19-7, 3.70, 90), Pettitte (14-9, 3.81, 92), Clemens (6-6, 4.18, 38).

Even Suzyn Waldman would admit that the Indians have the best one-two in the league. Clemens may have a slight margin over Westbrook but neither has been brilliant. If a fourth starter is needed Paul Byrd will give a slight advantage over Mussian or Hughes. The PRC of Sabathia and Carmona is astounding. This one is easy.

Edge: Cleveland

Relief Pitching (ERA, WHIP, FIP, LOB%)

CLE- Lewis (2.20, 1.22, 2.58, 80.9%), Perez (1.66, .89, 3.08, 84.8%), Betancourt (1.47, .76, 2.25, 86.4%).

NYY- Vizcaino (4.30, 1.45, 4.12, 72.1%), Farnsworth (4.73, 1.46, 4.92, 70.3%), Chamberlain (.38, .76, 1.94, 96.6%).

The state of affairs in the Yankee bullpen is such that Vizcaino and Farnsworth are one and three in appearances. For the Indians, the bullpen has made a tremendous impact on the season. Innings 7 and 8 will be split between Lewis, Perez and Betancourt. Loathe as we may be to admit, Chamberlain has been fantastic. Still, this one is not that close.

Major Edge: Cleveland

Closer (ERA, SV, FIP, WHIP)

CLE- Borowski (5.15, 44, 4.12, 1.44)

NYY- Rivera (3.15, 30, 2.71, 1.12)

Borowski allows way too many baserunners. While this may the product of a high BABip, it doesn't really matter, nearly a runner and a half reach per inning. Rivera has not been as dominant in the past but he has been better than Borowski.

Edge: New York

First Base (BA/OBP/SLG, HR, RC)

CLE- Garko (291/361/485, 21, 72)

NYY- Mientkiewicz (272/343/432, 5, 24)

Mientkiewicz has taken most of the time at 1st away from Andy Phillips. He has hit at a decent rate but for basically no power. Garko has been a nice surprise by continuing last year's success. His defense is not as good as Mientkiewicz but the Yankee has lost a bit and Garko is no slouch.

Edge: Cleveland

Second Base

CLE- Cabrera (279/345/422, 3, 25)

NYY- Cano (306/353/487, 19, 95)

We all love Asdrubal but he has not had a full year to contribute. Cano has been fantastic again. Cabrera is considerably better in the field but Cano just rakes.

Edge: New York

Shortstop

CLE- Peralta (270/341/432, 21, 85)

NYY- Jeter (322/387/449, 12, 113)

For all the hype, Jeter is not a noticeably better hitter than Jhonny. Jhonny has more pop in his bat and is more patient at the plate. Jeter will hit a few more doubles and triples. In the field there is also little difference. Both players have a mediocre RZR but Peralta has made nearly twice as many plays outside of his zone (OOZ).

Edge: Push

Third Base

Blake- (269/337/437, 18, 68)

A-Rod- (312/420/644, 54, 161)

We love you Casey but this is no contest. A-Rod is arguably the best player in the game.

Major Edge: NYY

Outfield

CLE- Lofton (298/369/413, 7, 79), Sizemore (280/393/466, 24, 124), Gutierrez (264/317/475, 13, 36).

NYY- Matsui (285/367/488, 25, 93), Cabrera (274/328/392, 8, 71), Abreu (283/368/447, 16, 102).

This ended up being closer than I thought. The defensive edge is all to the Indians, who employ three center fielders. The Yankees are average at best in the field. The Yankee outfield is renowned for really crushing the ball but actually posts a lower slugging in two of the three spots.

Edge: Push

Catcher:

CLE-Martinez (298/371/504, 25, 106)

NYY- Posada (337/426/544, 20, 100)

Posada is having a career year. Martinez just keeps getting better. Neither is great at shutting down the running game but both are quite competent. Both will hit to the alleys with decent power. This is as close as a position as there is on the field. Shoppach will see time here if Byrd starts, whether or not this is a good thing is debatable.

Edge: Push, again

Designated Hitter

CLE- Hafner (264/384/449, 24, 93).

NYY- Giambi (232/349/431, 14, 39), Damon (270/351/396, 12, 85).

Nothing overwhelming here, which is a real dissapointment for the Indians. Giambi and Damon will both see some time here, with Damon also playing in the outfield. If Hafner gets hot he can carry a team, the same can not be said of either Yankee.

Edge: Cleveland

Bench

CLE- Micheals, Nixon, Barfield, Shoppach, Gomez.

NYY- Betemit, Duncan, Molina, Phillips, Giambi/Damon.

J-Mike and JBarf both spent some time starting this year. The Giambi/Damon player off the bench for the Yankees will also have some time starting. Betemit is a more powerful version of Gomez who does not make contact as frequently. Shoppach and Molina both can hit a bit but Shoppach supplies more power. There is no real standout player on either bench.

Edge: Push

Prediction: Indians in 3. The Yankees can hit but the advantage is not so big as the national news media would have you think. The pitching is a marked advantage for the Indians. Sabathia and Carmona are the best one-two the Indians have ever sent to the playoffs. Five years ago, Clemens against Westbrook would have been a nightmare matchup for the Indians, now it is a very winnable game.

[This is just a skeletal rundown. There are players who may appear for an inning or two whom I have not mentioned. All statistics are from The Hardball Times, all player positions used for projection of lineups are from ESPN.]

Poll

Outcome of the Series?

Indians in 5

25 votes

Yankees in 3

3 votes

Yankees in 4

6 votes

Indians in 3

12 votes

Yankees in 5

3 votes

Indians in 4

61 votes

110 votes | Poll has closed

Nickname Forcing

fwembt — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 05:12:57 -0000

Hello assembled gentlemen and lady, I'm Brad and I am here to discuss a recent outbreak of that most horrednous disease, Nickname Forcing. This disease is at times known as Chris Bermanism or ESPNitis. Known sufferers are Linda Cohn, Stuart Scott and the namesake of the disease, Chris Berman.

The danger of this scourge is that it leads to a bunch of grown men (and woman) sounding like nothing more than a bunch of junior high kids, trying desperately to be cool. While it has been established that there is nothing cooler than a nickname that just seems to flow (ie. The Wizard of Oz) it has also been established that nothing sounds so stupid as a nickname that is forced (ie. Curtis "My Favorite" Martin).

I plead with you, the kind citizens of LGT, to not fall into the plague of ESPN with the rest of the world. Do not succumb to the pressure to give Ben Francisco a nickname, do not call Grady anything but Grady, don't be Linda Cohn and call Victor Martinez "V-Mart." I pray of you, let us rise above the fray. Let us call players by the names that their parents argued over for so long before bestowing them.

I leave it to you, my friends, to keep this a place free of this horrific malady. Only you can prevent Nickname Forcing.