• joined Jul 26, 2009
  • last login Aug 27, 2014
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Hockey Analytics Writer at @hockeygraphs and @lhhockey. Former Pitchf/x analyst. Isles, Mets, Jets, Spurs. Duke '09.,,

User Blog

Isles Analytics Review Part 1: Neutral Zone +/-

Well guys, the season is over and I'm going to be starting a series of posts reviewing the Islanders' individual performances through Hockey Analytics - what some might call "Advanced Stats." I'm...

2013 Review: Isles possession and zone entries

John Tavares and Frans Nielsen are gods at the offensive aspects of the neutral zone.

Isles 26-Game Review: The Forwards

The Isles' forward corps seems to be unproductive outside of John Tavares. But is that really the case? Where are the problems? Who's not holding his own?

21-Game Review: Isles Defense

Examining the New York Islanders defense by advanced stats through the first quarter of the 2013 NHL season.


Islanders Review: The Goalies After 21 Games

Lighthouse Hockey commenter and fancystats enthusiast garik16 takes a look at the Islanders goaltending 21 games into the season. (Fanpost)

Goalies on '13 Market by EV Save%

The options for goalies available via free agency in 2013 are not plentiful nor promising.

Isles Zone Entries, 10 GP: Trending wrong way

By successful offensive zone entries, David Ullstrom looks like a candidate to play on John Tavares' wing.

Zone Entries: Isles Neutral Zone Play in 4 Games

The Islanders have been acting like an average team in the neutral zone so far this year overall, and could use improvement from a few key wing positions.


What exactly is Garth Snow Planning to do about the Islanders' Problems?

Taking yet another break from my introductory series on hockey analytics, I want to address a question I have: What exactly does Garth Snow plan to do about the Isles' three problems? Because...

The Bottom Six Matter - Stop defending Islanders' Roster moves by saying someone is just a fourth liner, who cares.

This was a recent comment on this blog: a 4th line isn’t going to make or break any team – Colin McDonald is a perfectly good 4th line RW – Reasoner could be okay at C for now as well A...

Hockey Analytics 6.3: What are indicators of luck?

How do we know when a team or player's performance has been influenced by a run of good or bad luck?


Introduction to Hockey Analytics Part 6.2: Luck and Random Variance: True Talent and Regression

So let's say we've figured out that a player has been lucky or unlucky - what do we do with that information? The answer lies in the concept of Regression. So WHAT IS REGRESSION? To explain...

Introduction to Hockey Analytics Part 6.1: Luck and Random Variance: An Introduction.

Luck is a very odd concept to talk about in professional (and amateur) sports. The players in the NHL all got the opportunity to play NHL hockey mainly because they are quite simply the most...

Introduction to Hockey Analytics Part 5.1: Evaluating Neutral Zone Play: Zone Entries

The Professional Hockey rink is divided into three "zones" - the offensive zone, the defensive zone, and the neutral zone. As you'd think, a player's play in each of these zones is important - and...

Introduction to Hockey Analytics Part 4.4: Possession Metrics: Scoring Chances

In the last 3 posts, we've discussed Corsi and Fenwick, two measures of possessions that rely upon shots in order to measure the effectiveness of players and teams. Neither Corsi nor Fenwick care...

Introduction to Hockey Analytics Part 4.3: Possession Metrics: Fenwick a Measure of Effective Possession

We've talked about the idea in the last two posts about the concept of attempting to measure the total percentage of the time a team has possession in the offensive zone through the counting of all...


Introduction to Hockey Analytics Part 4.2: The Various Forms of Corsi Available on Hockey Sites

Welcome back! In the last post a year ago, I discussed the value of possession metrics such as Corsi or Fenwick. As we noted back in that post, by keeping using shots - all shots, not just shots...

Mets PITCHf/x Analysis: Collin McHugh

A PITCHf/x analysis of Collin McHugh's first two big league starts with the Mets.


Let's be Objective: The Cy Young Race

Listen, we all want R.A. Dickey to win the Cy Young. He's an awesome person, a knuckleballer (who doesn't love a knuckleballer?), and of course a Met. And he's having an awesome season. But...


New York Mets PITCHf/x Analysis: A Look At Matt Harvey's First Five Starts

A PITCHf/x analysis of Mets pitcher Matt Harvey's first big league starts.


Jeremy Hefner - Spare Parts or something More? (A Pitchf/x Look)

A pitchf/x look at Jeremy Hefner.

More Fascinating work from Eric at NHLNumbers, he has examined an alternate method of determining...


More Fascinating work from Eric at NHLNumbers, he has examined an alternate method of determining the quality of competition players face, using Time on Ice. This Chart shows the time of Ice of defensemen faced while each player is on the ice, and the time of ice of forwards faced while each player is on the ice. The greater time on ice, the better a player is thought by his coaches to be. Why is this fascinating? Well, consider: The top forwards of a team will face the top defensemen, but not naturally the top forwards of an opponent (but rather the defensive forwards). The top defensive forwards of a team will face the top opposing forwards, but not the top opposing defensemen. Only two way players will face both top forwards and defensemen. In this chart, showing the Islanders in 2011-2012, we see the following: Tavares-Moulson face top defensemen and top forwards (the sign of 2 way players facing the best of the best of all worlds.) Nielsen and Grabner meanwhile face the top forwards, but not the top defensemen - because after all, they're the defensive group. The other forwards all lag behind (Though PAP fits in the middle).

Dumping the Puck: HALF as effective as carrying the puck in.


This article and the linked article within present some amazing discoveries by Eric of BroadStreetHockey. Eric and the Broad Street Hockey crew (Geoff Detweiler) have been tracking each zone-entry during each Flyers game this year. They've come up with two fascinating results: 1. Entering the zone via carrying the puck in instead of by Dump results in basically TWICE as many shots on goal, even AFTER you take out odd-man rush and dump-and-change situations. 2. Neutral Zone play is far more important than previously believed and is far more of an area where player skill affects performance than offensive or defensive zone play, as opposed to simple randomness. The first of these discoveries I suspect will be more interesting to the general LHHockey community though the 2nd is probably more of a landmark discovery, so I've linked in this fanshot the second dump-in vs carry-in article. (If you guys aren't going to NHLNumbers regularly at this point, you're missing out. It's filling the hole created by BehindtheNetHockey becoming ArcticIceHockey and then some.)

Hockey Analytics: Explaining the importance of Shot Quality in Hockey -


I've referenced this a bunch in my comments before, and it's something I meant to get to in my intro to hockey analytics series, but Eric of Broad Street Hockey has written an amazing article explaining what we mean by "shot quality" and why those who look at hockey #s tend to dismiss it as an argument for a team being good and focus more on possession statistics like corsi/fenwick. Very readable and requires little outside knowledge.

A little over 5 years ago, Wallace Matthews wrote in Newsday that the knuckleball is a bigger menace to the game than steroids, growth hormone or Clomid will ever be.


A nice blast from the past from Fire Joe Morgan (about a different knuckler, but the point stands): The relevant quotes: Wallace: His knuckleball, or whatever you want to call it, is a bigger menace to the game than steroids, growth hormone or Clomid will ever be. If as many guys in major-league baseball threw the knuckler as have taken performance-enhancing drugs, the game and its fans would have died of boredom years ago. Someone needs to remind him of this on twitter (@ESPNNYYankees)

Is Grigorenko's supposed bad work ethic and poor second half production a mirage?


Very interesting article about why Grigorenko isn't as much as a risk as people thought. Reminds me of Couturier last year, who supposedly had lost production, but a look at the #s (done by Copper&Blue who wanted him at #1) showed he was still as productive.

"Burying Nino Niederreiter"


An interesting article looking at Nino's historically bad - performance wise - 2011-2012 season and what should be expected from him.

Hockey Prospectus' Player Usage Charts and Opinions on Every team in 2011-2012


"Player Usage Charts for every single NHL team, accompanied by expert analysis from 20+ different analysts. At last you can easily find out how different players are being used and put all other statistics in their proper context. This 68-page PDF is absolutely free, and available right here" My take: A nice recap of what you should know already, with small blurbs of analysis after each team. Still the visual aids of the charts are fantastic.

Yu Darvish's Filthy "Shuuto" from Tuesday - What is this pitch?


Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks wrote a short piece on Wednesday about a pitch thrown by Yu Darvish on Tuesday April 24. Parks, for those of you who are don't know (and you should know him), is...

Consensus 2012 Top 100 Draft Prospects from Copper & Blue


Copper n Blue just released their April update of the consensus Top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. The list basically averages the following top 100 lists: Bob McKenzie, Redline Report, Future Considerations, ISS, Craig Button, Hockey Prospectus, The Scouting Report, and Win Shares via Nick, A.K.A. Mathletic. It's very interesting - Dumba ahead of Murray and Forsberg sneaking into 2nd.

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