SB Nation User Blog: gee-roj

Looks like the Redskins ARE the key to the Division, (for Dallas anyway)..?

gee-roj — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 18:39:19 -0000

On November 20, I posted this prior to the first Redskins meeting:

Are the Redskins the Key to the Division

One key thought from this post was this here:

Conventional wisdom would seem to favor the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants all splitting their season series with each other; this would make all three of them 2-2 in the division when removing the Redskin games. I personally believe that these match ups are going to work a little differently this year in that the Eagles are going to sweep the Giants; the Giants will sweep Dallas, and the Cowboys will sweep the Eagles, but end result is the same; 2-2 for each of those 3 in the division minus the Redskins games.

The other key thought was this:

The tricky part then remains who is going to lose to the Redskins because mark my words someone will. No team has ever gone winless in NFC East match ups and it's not going to happen this year either. I think it's reasonable to assume that the team (or teams) that loses to the Redskins will miss out on the divisional crown this year.

Well the Giants and Eagles have already swept the ‘skins which leaves us with Dallas, and you better believe that Redskin nation would love nothing more than to undo the Cowboys season; there is nobody they hate more. The Cowboys are the Redskins last hope of avoiding an 0-6 record in the division.

The question I have is; have the Redskins already packed it in for the year? Has the level of dysfunction in the front office become so bad that they no longer even try on the field? Up until last night they had at least been competitive in back to back to back losses to Dallas, Philly and New Orleans before beating the crap out of the Raiders. I even thought they had a solid chance at an upset last night; instead I awake this morning to discover they suffered a 45-12 beat down. Are the Giants just that good now?

The keys to this game are similar to the last time these two met. Dallas needs to score early and often, if they don’t and they let the Redskins hang around, we could be in for another frustrating dog fight but this time Shaun Suisham is on the Cowboys sideline. Yikes. If the Cowboys get off to a quick 14-0 lead (like they did against New Orleans last Saturday) then the Redskins will pack their bags and sign off on this game and Dallas should win rather easily. However, if this turns into another 7-6 affair it could very well be the other sideline celebrating when the final gun sounds.

As a side note:

I’ve noticed that the Redskins have started wearing their dark jerseys at home this season. I must say this bums me out a bit. It just doesn’t feel like a, Cowboys at Redskins game without seeing Dallas in the rarely seen blue jerseys. Here’s to hoping the ‘skins go old school this Sunday and wear the white jerseys.

Here We Go Again... ANOTHER DECEMBER MELTDOWN!!!!

gee-roj — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:07:50 -0000

(Insert deep breath and count backwards from 10 to 0)

I have to remind myself as I cool off from this past Sunday’s calamity that I predicted a few weeks ago that the Giants would win. My thought at the time was that the Giants, would sweep Dallas, the Eagles would sweep NY and the Cowboys would sweep Philly. I further speculated that whichever one of those three teams dropped one to the Redskins would be the odd man out. It's already too late for that team to be the Eagles as they have swept Washington but the Redskins still have two, very interesting, back to back home games against the Giants and Cowboys. Let us hope that it's the Giants that lose at FedEx field and not the boys (though I can tell you that the Cowboys will be the team they are more up for).

The Cowboys road-record is an average 3-3 thus far and I'd be more than happy to see them continue this .500 trend through the remainder of season and finish 4-4 on the road; (which would mean a win at either New Orleans or Washington) providing of course that they win out at home, (fishing the year7-1 at the new stadium). This would leave Dallas 11-5 at season’s end and anything shy of that won't get it done. Most seasons, 10-6 seems to be the magic mark but this year appears to be a buck of that trend. I think it's reasonable to assume that both the Giants and the Packers are capable of finishing at least 10-6 and the Cowboys would lose tie-breakers to both of those teams. It’s therefore imperative that the Cowboys at least hold serve at home for the remainder of the season; which brings us to the Chargers this Sunday.

The Chargers come to town with a ¾ defense. The Cowboys offense has struggled mightily against ¾ teams over the past few seasons, will this continue this Sunday? The Chargers offense is too explosive for the Cowboys’ offense to get off to a slow start or to struggle scoring. If the defense tackles like it did last Sunday the Cowboys’ O will need to score a lot of points to pull off a win.

Has the Cowboys’ defense been exposed or was last Sunday an apparition? Has it simply been bad offenses until now making this defense appear better than it is? Are the leagues more explosive units about to make the Dallas D look below average? Before the Giants game the Cowboys had snuck their way into the top 3 in scoring defense but then came Sunday’s 31 point explosion. Maybe it’s just the Giants who for some reason matchup really well against Dallas this year. They have averaged 32 points a game in their two contests against Dallas while the Cowboys have surrendered a stingy average of 14.9 points per game against everyone else on their schedule thus far.

I really think the Cowboy season is on the line this Sunday. If they lose, they will, most likely, no longer control their own destiny.

Are the Giants a Repeat of the Green Bay Game Waiting to Happen..?

gee-roj — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:20:42 -0000

In week 2 the Cowboys blew an extraordinary opportunity to beat a divisional foe despite multiple turnovers. Had they won that game the Cowboys would be sitting on a 9-2 record (3-0 in the division) and not facing as desperate a situation as they are this Sunday. A loss to the Giants this time around drops them to 8-4 overall (most likely a tie with Philly for first) and (2-2) in the division; worst of all they will have been swept by the Giants. I HATE BEING SWEPT BY ANYONE. (Insert deep breath here) It also makes the rest of their games that much more critical; if a loss to the Giants is followed up by loses to either the Chargers or Saints or both, the Cowboys may no longer be in charge of their own destiny.

The Giants come into this game much like Green Bay did a few weeks back; they exhibit a similarly discouraging list of injuries, have more or less been dismissed from most playoff discussions and find their season on the line…. this weekend…. against the Cowboys! And like the Packers a few weeks back, the Giants’ talent level is better than their record and it doesn’t hurt that they get to be home for this one

One big difference might be, however, that the Giants will face a less satisfied Cowboy team than the Packers faced on 11/15. That Cowboy team had just rattled off 4 straight wins, including an emotionally draining victory over the Eagles the week before. The Cowboys’ team coming to the meadowlands this weekend, is far from content and hasn’t played well enough recently to be overconfident. In short, I suspect the Cowboys have put in a good 10 days of focused preparation for this game (but unfortunately so have the Giants).

The last time these two faced one another the Giants could do nothing to stop the Cowboy running attack while the Cowboys could do nothing to stop the Giants passing game. Since then the Cowboys pass-defense has improved significantly while the Giant run D remains suspect. Will Garrett further exploit this weakness with the 3-headed monster, or is a more pass heavy game plan in the works? The Cowboy passing attack was woeful against the Giants and Romo had his worst game of the season, what adjustments has Garrett designed to counter the Giants, deep umbrella coverage approach they took last time? Will the Giants even employ that same strategy this time around (after all Miles Austin hadn’t really been discovered yet when they last played)?

Eli torched the Cowboys last time and had a near career night and a lot of that came on 3rd down conversions. Since then Wade has changed things up by playing tighter coverage, designating Jenkins the official starter, and often lining up in a 3-3-5 look on obvious passing downs. It also doesn’t hurt that the Cowboys rush has picked up since then as well. Will these improvements be enough to stifle the Giant passing attack?

Are the Redskins the key to the division..?

gee-roj — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:07:29 -0000

Conventional wisdom would seem to favor the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants all splitting their season series with each other; this would make all three of them 2-2 in the division when removing the Redskin games. I personally believe that these match-ups are going to work a little differently this year in that the Eagles are going to sweep the Giants; the Giants will sweep Dallas, and the Cowboys will sweep the Eagles, but the end result is the same; 2-2 for each of those 3 in the division minus the Redskins games.

Add to that the non-divisional games like Oakland, San Diego, and New Orleans. Both the G-men and Iggles have already lost to both the Chargers and Saints and I think it's reasonable to believe that the Cowboys will drop one of their games against these two.

The tricky part then remains who is going to lose to the Redskins because mark my words someone will. No team has ever gone winless in NFC East match ups and it's not going to happen this year either. I think it's reasonable to assume that the team (or teams) that loses to the Redskins will miss out on the divisional crown this year.

I say it all the time but I'll say it (or write it) again now; it's not who you play but who you play when you play them and I would have much preferred to have played the Redskins a few weeks ago then now. If there is any good to come out of the Green Bay game it's that the Redskins should face a more focused and motivated Cowboys team than they might have otherwise seen.

The Cowboy offense will likely have to be very patient on sunday as the points will likely be hard to come by.... At first.

But the defense should hold it's and eventually that Redskin armor will chink. Of course if the Cowboy offense can get out to an explosive start and build something like a 14-0 lead then the game could be over as the Redskins aren't really built to put a lot of points up quickly.

Is the Packers’ game a letdown game..?

gee-roj — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:25:47 -0000

I just hope the Cowboys’ team isn't feeling as satisfied with the Philly win as the Cowboys’ fans are. They’re starting to get some accolades in the media now and they may lose that chip they’ve had on their shoulder. This is the time when paying extra attention in the film room and at practice becomes harder to do. You have to stay focused throughout the week in this league; almost pissed. Are the Cowboys about to take their next opponent too lightly? The Cowboys have really owned the Packers for the past couple of decades (just look at Favre’s lifetime record of 0-10 at Texas Stadium), and last year the Cowboys won at Lambeau for the first time ever; are the Packers overdue?

Wade’s defensive game plan for the Eagles last Sunday was brilliant; he forced them to go the length of the field with every possession, and the Eagles at this juncture live and die by the big play. His efforts were helped by an offense that didn’t force anything and a special team’s unit that kept the Eagles from making big plays in that phase of the game as well. Will he enforce a similar stagey against the Packers?

On the surface it would seem that yes this is the prudent way to defend this Sunday’s opponent but unlike Philly, the Packers have demonstrated an ability to produce long scoring drives. Just look at their latest outing with the Vikings for a couple examples of this. Honestly I think Wade can afford to be a little more aggressive in this game; considering his front 7 faces a heavily depleted offensive line. Will we see an exact blue print of the Eagles strategy this weekend or will Wade throw out a couple of wrinkles?

Garrett was equally brilliant last Sunday. His use of Olgetree, and the bubble screen to counter the Eagle blitzes was an outstanding surprise. Throw in a couple of appearances by Choice running the Razorback and he seemed to have the Eagles defense confused during the games most crucial drives. Overall he did the best job I’ve seen him do yet of designing and calling plays to offset the blitz. His patient strategy was the perfect complement to Wade’s and as a team this was the most cohesive effort I’ve seen from the Cowboys in a long time (perhaps since 1993). Against Green Bay, he will not have to focus as much on the Blitz as the they do not do at as much nor are they anywhere near as good as it as the Eagles are.

The Packers best pass defense is to go with a 7 man front and if they start this way will Garrett be willing to run the ball more and give them a heavy dose of the 3-headed-monster? Last year both Miles and Felix burned the Packers for big TD’s to break open an otherwise close game. My guess is that the Packers will attempt to make the Cowboys execute long sustained drives this weekend (attempting to give the ‘boys a taste of their own medicine) which could mean that the big plays may not come from the typical big play guys. Is this perhaps the weekend that Roy comes up big? Or will we perhaps see multiple touchdown dances from the Barbarian?

Since Romo became the QB of the Cowboys their record in the month of November has been a staggering, 13-2 (including 2009 thus far). With Redskins and Raiders still left on their November schedule the Cowboys should be heading towards yet another winning record in the 11th month of the year, (of course the dark cold days of December still lay ahead but that’s a story for another day).

Is this the week the Eagles attack with an unforeseen use of the, "Wild Cat" featuring Michal Vick?

gee-roj — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:58:30 -0000

Is this the week the Eagles unleash (no pun intended) Michael Vick? I certainly hope not because I think it will catch the Cowboys’ D “off-guard.” I fear that Andy just might have 4 or 5 choice plays he’s been developing (for Vick) and has been waiting for both the chemistry to come to together in practice and the right game to unpackaged them in. Could that be this Sunday?

Will we see the more pass happy explosive Cowboys of the past couple games this Sunday? Or will it be the bruising version that lead the league in rushing after week 3? Personally I hope it’s a balanced mix of both. I don’t expect the Eagles to play a one dimensional defense so neither do I expect the Cowboys to counter with a one dimensional offense. Garret has, so far, this season done a good job of taking what the defense gives him. The Eagles defense, however, presents the biggest challenge (so far), in that they make it very difficult to see what it is they’re keying on, (trying to take away) on any given down. The Eagles will be looking to stop the pass and the run on Sunday and Garrett should find himself in a very interesting chess match.

The Cowboys’ defense has improved but are they ready for the most explosive offense they will have faced so far this year? For a long time now the Eagles have been the masters of the screen pass. Reid seems to have an uncanny sense of when and where an opponent is blitzing from and he will offset that with a beautifully designed screen pass. Wade has done a great job these past few games of choosing when to dial up the blitz and an even better job of knowing when to call off the dogs and mix it up. In each of the past two games the Cowboy’s opponents have started out with long, impressive drives and in each of those games Wade and company have done an outstanding job of adjusting and shutting them out for their next several possessions. When playing chess against Andy, Wade will have to do some of his best “in-game” adjustments of the season so far; should be interesting.

Will special teams make the difference? The default thing to say is, “whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game.” But what if that battle is even when the final gun sounds? I’m anticipating that both teams will have a pair of turnovers this Sunday, so does this mean special teams could make the difference? Both teams have proven themselves capable of producing both points and great field position in the return game… Might a key 4th quarter punt return be the difference?

And finally will I be able to go to sleep on Sunday night once this game is over? Will I be tossing and turning with anger due to an obnoxious loss? Or I will I be wide-eyed with giddiness due to a remarkable win? Will my 4 month old son allow me sleep through the night either way? Time will tell.

Can’t wait for Sunday night.

Are the Seahawks a Trap Game..?

gee-roj — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:30:09 -0000

We are reaching that point in the week where last weekend’s game fades into the background as next weekend’s game takes center stage and as happy as am with the Falcons win, I’m beginning to worry that the Cowboys are heading into a classic, “trap” game.

They just beat a team that most considered to be in the top 3 to 5 in the NFC before last weekend, (how could they not feel good about that victory and want to pat themselves on the back) and waiting for them on Nov. 8 is a long awaited rematch with the Eagles, the team that so graciously ended the Cowboys’ season last year with perhaps the worst defeat I’ve seen (44-6) since the ’85 Bears beat them 44-0. The Cowboys have got to be chopping at the bit to get back on the field against those guys and exact some revenge (not to mention that the very real possibility exists that first place in the division could be on the line as both teams could realistically be 5-2 heading into that contest). In between these two big games lies a match with the Seahawks; a team the Cowboys should mop the floor with (much like they did last Thanksgiving) but a team that can be very dangerous if not taken seriously.

Coming off their bye the Seahawks have had two full weeks to prepare for this game which gives them plenty of time to put together a solid game plan for the Cowboys. Of note, teams coming off the bye are 8-4 so far this year and some of those wins have been rather decisive.

I wish Garrett would learn to go with the hot hand…

gee-roj — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 15:31:48 -0000

Was I the only one wondering why he continued to give the bulk of the carries to Barber yesterday when it was clear, early on, that Choice was having the better day? Garrett just seems to lock into an idea of what this team is supposed to do and it takes him a long time to break out of it and change things up; even after that evidence is there that a different direction would be more effective.

Going forward I’d love to see him go with the hot hand; meaning that if Choice is clearly having the better game than let him get the bulk of carries for that game and then let the other guys spell relief. The next week it might be Felix, and the week after that Barber. If someone is on a roll let them stay on a roll, much in the same way that a basketball coach will often give more minutes to a bench player in a particular game if he gets hot.

Same thing goes for the wide outs. Against Atlanta I expect to see Austin in the starting lineup, (not Crayton). I think he’s earned that after yesterday’s performance. But why do I have this foreboding feeling that Mr. “no-separation” Crayton will start.

Also…

I don’t think I have ever seen a defensive team in all my years of watching NFL football find more ways to give up a 3rd and very long than Wade’s group over the past few years. Yesterday during that 3 & 26 I turned to me wife and said, “I guarantee you this unit will find a way to blow this and give the Chiefs a first down.” Sure enough, one Alan Ball penalty later, the Chiefs were in business with a first and 10.

The two minute defense under Wade just might be the worst in Cowboys history. You can count on these guys to blow it every single time they are called on to close out a half or a game. Why is this? How can this unit play so well for well 28 minutes a half only to fall apart in the final two. Is it perhaps the “prevent” that in reality prevents nothing. I much prefer Rex Ryan’s approach of turning up the pressure during crunch time. As bad as the Chiefs pass protection was yesterday I would love to have seen two or three all out blitzes. I mean why not, it’s not like the safer approach kept them out of the end zone.

BTW, 5 off-sides penalties (4 in one drive) has this ever happen before?

Why are the Cowboys such an awful Football team..?

gee-roj — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:59:18 -0000

Answer is, they’re not but you sure would think so if your opinion were based solely on the expert analysis of sports shows like the ones that air on ~~ESPN~~ (BSPN). This morning for example, on Mike and Mike, they each predicted an 8-8 and 7-9 season respectively for the Cowboys (and in all fairness Golic did have them in Super Bowl last year). Both of them harped on the poor December showings and lack of playoff victories over the past 12 seasons (which is truly unacceptable for the Cowboys franchise). We should all expect this to be the new albatross for the Cowboys, in the media, until they silence them on the field with December AND January victories. Golic reasoned that the Cowboys play in way too tough a division to have late season breakdowns and survive (a fair point but it assumes that the Cowboys will once again fail in December). Gone is T.O. as the big “story” and “in” is the late season collapse as a way to further blaspheme the Cowboys, (especially for BSPN).

If I’m honest with myself, I have to admit that I too will take any early season success with a grain of salt until I see this team playing its best football down the stretch. 1 or 2 maybe even 3 straight years of late season collapses is nothing to be that concerned about but 12 straight years of it? That’s a pattern; the type of pattern the Detroit Lions are made out of. If I really think about it the last time the Cowboys played their best football, in the month of December, Jimmy Johnson was the coach; that’s a LONG time ago. I realize that Barry Switzer coached a team that won the Super Bowl in ’95 but even that team had a lousy December and quite honestly lucked out with their playoff match ups in that they didn’t have to face a 49ers team that had their number (as it is they barely squeaked by a vastly inferior Steelers team in that Super Bowl).

The Cowboys have posted a 40-26 record over the past 4 seasons (including the post-season). Over that same period of time they have gone 10-3 in the month of September; 10-7 in the month of October; 13-3 in the month of November; a lousy 7-11 in the month of December and an even uglier 0-2 in January. Why so great in November and so abysmal December? The two months are separated by just one day. Is it scheduling? Are the schedules tougher for the Cowboys in December? That‘s no excuse as the real elite teams win those tough games. Has it been injuries? That’s no excuse as the real elite teams overcome injuries as well. Is it the weather? Are the Cowboys a team that can’t win cold weather games? This never used to be a problem for the Silver and Blue. Over the past two seasons it’s really been the offense that has done the biggest about-face as the holidays approach.

Over the past two seasons Jason Garrett’s offense has put up a staggering average of nearly 29 points a game in months of September – November while putting up a meager average of 14 points a game in months of December and January. That’s more than cutting in half the point production. My biggest fear is that over the course of the season opposing D-Coordinators are putting together game plans that by season’s end Garrett is having a hard time counter adjusting to in a timely matter. My other concern is that Garrett has had a difficult time adjusting his game plans when injuries occur. This was never more evident than last season when Romo went down but Garrett still had his receivers running the same type of deep routes that Johnson just did not have the arm for; rather than adjusting the team’s strategies to play to Johnson’s strengths, (more underneath routes and check down options). Or how about how few touches Choice got after Felix went down (it took an additional injury to Barber before Choice finally saw any significant playing time).

The evidence tells me that when given a full off-season to draw things up and given a healthy offense Garrett can “X’s and O’s” with the best of them but as the circumstances change he has not yet got the experience to modify the strategies it took him an entire off-season to develop. Have the past two years been enough of a learning experience to help him over this hump? Time will tell.

It does feel different this year and quite honestly I’m glad the media is down on Dallas. I’d rather they be underdogs than favorites. If this franchise can finally find a way to finish strong this could truly be a magical season; especially if they start out as hot as they have in recent seasons.

The most unpredictable of seasons…

gee-roj — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 11:54:51 -0000

The 2009 campaign, as it approaches, has got to be one of, if not the hardest season I’ve ever seen in terms of what to expect. At this point results ranging from a 6-10 disaster to 16-3 Super Bowl Champion would not be surprise me. We’ve seen flashes of brilliance at almost of every position while additionally seeing stretches of horrific play from the same players. We’ve seen game plans that seem to catch the opponent completely off guard and other strategies that were so predicable you would have thought the opposing coordinators had been allowed to read over the Cowboy’s playbook the night before the game. We’ve seen brilliant Novembers and disastrous Decembers. The up and down nature of this team has resulted in 9-7 finishes in three of the past four seasons.

The coaching staff has been an absolute joke for the past couple of seasons. From the way they conduct training camp to the way they game plan; this staff has been unable to put a consistent result on the field. Wade Phillips is admittedly hesitant to play younger players unless he absolutely has to and as a result will sometimes start a less talented player (see A. Henry). The offensive play design and play calling has looked near high school like. There was almost never anyone in motion or even lined up in a different position in any sort of attempt to create a mismatch last season.

The Cowboys used to be a model franchise when it came to coaching. For 29 years Landry roamed the sidelines and for most of that time was a true innovator. His 20 consecutive winning seasons (1966-1985), are an NFL record that hasn’t even been challenged yet and it remains one of the longest winning streaks in the annals all of professional sports. He was followed up by Jimmy Johnson who won again brought some innovation to big D with an emphasis on team speed. Four years later he won the Super Bowl w/ the youngest team in the NFL at that time. Unlike Wade, Jimmy had no fear of playing a rookie in crucial situations. As an encore Jimmy coached Dallas, to their franchise first, “back to back” title (Damn it! Had he stayed I’m convinced they would have been the first to win 3 straight).

Sigh

Some will point to the 2007 13-3 season as an example of what this staff can do but to them I say that was more of abnormality than anything else; take a look at these teams for example:

Seattle (2005; 13-3)

Chicago (2006; 13-3)

Green Bay (2007; 13-3)

These 3 teams like Dallas have had one random great year (that fell short), preceded and followed by mediocrity. Why, because quite frankly the NFC is inferior to the AFC right now and there is no consistency in the NFC at this time. While the AFC brings the same teams to the playoff table nearly every year, i.e. New England, Indy San Diego, and Pittsburgh; the NFC consistently has had at least 4 new teams in the post season from one year to the next. In Belichick, New England has got perhaps the best strategist the game has ever seen; Indy had, until this off-season, one of the most solid HC’s of the past 15 years in Dungy and Pittsburgh has won the Super Bowl with each of their last 3 head coach selections.

On the bright side it really does seem like the coaching staff is taking a different approach this year. First and foremost it was great idea (if Jerry is determined to keep him) to make Wade the D-Coordinator / HC. This is where the man truly shines, putting aggressive schemes on the field, that put relentless pressure on the opponents offense. His prior approach of being a loose administrator that leaves the bulk of the work with the assistants just has never really threatened to bring home a Vince Lombardy trophy anywhere he has ever been.

Another bright spot is that with Joe DeCamillis the Cowboys have made a definite upgrade to Special Teams coaching.

Garrett, well, we’ll have to see…