SB Nation User Blog: ghost_ride

Back From the Dead: Clippers 106, Nuggets 99

ghost_ride — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 07:50:10 -0000

The result we saw was not supposed to happen. I'm not really sure there was anyone who thought the Clippers would actually win tonight. On my way home from work, I had to listen to John Ireland say that 4-10 was a forgone conclusion for the Clips, over and over, but in an overly-cocky, big brother laker fan kind of way. But it was hard to argue, the only real case you could make for a Clipper win was that Denver was struggling a bit on the road, and even less likely, that Dunleavy was again sitting on the hot seat, and maybe that would encite some fireworks from the team that had been laying dormant for whatever reason.

In one of the more exciting games we've seen in recent memory, the Clippers appeared to play for their coaches job. In the first half, the 1st and 2nd unit were like two sides of a football team desperate to achieve the same goal. The first several minutes did not look good at all, in fact the early 10 point deficit felt almost inevitable and final. But the starters were able to gain some traction, and then sustain some momentum before giving way to an improbable 2nd unit of Telfair, Butler, Collins, Smith, & DeAndre (+17 on the night) that played about the best 8 minutes of basketball we've seen from a Clippers 2nd team, ever. Telfairs' ability to take it to the rim and score the ball and yet also look for his teammates was key...DJ's energy in the form of emphatic dunks & rebounding gave them a swagger, and then there was Smith and Mardys' steadiness, but it was Butler, as if trying to make ammends for several unusually poor games all in one shot, who was our mvp of the night. Making crucial shots, including 4/9 3's, taking it to the rim a couple of times, while limiting his turnovers. This was more like what we thought we were getting out of the Phoenix this off-season.

In fact, the wings in general were the teams biggest strength. Probably something we never thought we'd see. In about 95+ minutes of action, Butler, Thornton, Collins, & Davis(2) shot 17 of 33 w/ 5 three pointers, and while making 14 out of 17 free throws for a true shooting percentage of 64%. They turned the ball over only 3 times while getting 4 steals (all by Collins). These are fantasy numbers, especially for our weakest position, and all without Eric Gordon in the mix. Collins has proved deserving of getting some burn, recalling his steady play during some ultra thin Clipper lineups from a year ago. Thornton appears to be morphing into Thornton 2.0, by attacking the rim with much more regularity than settling for the forced outside shot we've all come to dread. But again, it was Butler who had the most to do with getting us our biggest win of the young season, assuming EJ's role of nailing crucial shots, including 3's at key points in the game, and even keeping the defense a little honest by finding his way to the rim and being able to finish a couple times, unexpectedly.

It was a mixed bag for Denver. They got another amazing game from Anthony, Nene & Martin played very solid, while Lawson continues to be one of the most impressive reserves in the league this year. Billups & JR Smith however, pretty much stunk. To say the team played bad as a whole wouldn't be accurate at all. The extra free throws that George Karl wanted so badly, and almost got him ejected, turned out to be dead even with both teams making 27 for 33.

Yet, it wouldn't be a patented Clipper victory, without a good amount of sweating it out near the end. The Clips were somehow able to win the 3rd quarter by five points, but the 4th quarter felt unsteady even before it started with Carmelo hitting a deadly 3-pointer to cut the lead to 15 heading into the final period. Dunleavy opted to give his starters a rest to open, hoping for something close to the kind of production they put forth in the 2nd quarter. But it wasn't to be, as they played about as tight and unaggressive as they possibly could while the Nuggets were smelling blood, quickly trimming the lead down to 10 and then into single digits. It really looked like they might blow right by the suddenly rudderless Clips, but the starters did their best to bear down and Butler hit a crucial three to push the lead from 2 to 5 just as Denver was on the verge of going for the jugular. Then there was that rebound Kaman secured that eventually clinched the game. He didn't look overly coordinated while securing it, but he got it done, in a very un-Clipper like, anti-Kaman like way.

That's the kind of night it was, very un-Clipper like. Maybe it wasn't just the players and coaches that did the job. It could have very well been the uproar of a sleepy fan base that had finally had enough. The team must have heard us, the fans, because they responded with the type of play we've been asking for all along, but so rarely get to see. We can only hope that this is the beginning, and not just a single game like Novak's game winner against the Nets last year. With EJ on his way back, and Griffin waiting in the wings, a Clipper fan is now caught off guard...they now have to actually consider having hope, for what already seemed like a lost season of injured young talent and disgruntled vets, guided by a lame-duck coach.

Griffin practicing as expected

ghost_ride — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 21:49:43 -0000

Griffin practicing as expected

via a lisa dillman tweet, this is expected but also comforting to see it play out.

Blake Griffin Update

ghost_ride — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 01:05:13 -0000

Blake Griffin Update

Cleared for practice on Thursday? Kind of strange to clear for practice two days in advance, maybe they meant today.

Either way, this is good news if it holds. 20 minutes on Friday night would be sweet.

LA Times Article/ Update

ghost_ride — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 18:53:43 -0000

LA Times Article/ Update

Both Camby and Telfair were good enough to practice Monday, but no mention of Griffin.

Story is about DeAndre and mostly about his improved free throw shooting.

All good, but hopefully Griffin is good to go tomorrow...

Who's Taking the Shots?

ghost_ride — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 05:32:47 -0000

Reading about Steve's post on EJ's true shooting percentage got me thinking about what our shot distribution will look like next year. This may be the first season in a while that we don't have a player that's odds on to lead our team in shot attempts. For years, it wasn't much of a question that the offense was going to revolve around Elton Brand. In his absence, guys like Corey Maggette & Al Thornton stepped up. Last year, it was BD & Thornton sharing top billing to open the season, before Zach Randolph took over the role, helping to stabilize our offense. But who will it be this year, and more importantly, who should it be?

Based on True Shooting % alone, EJ would seem to be the default choice, but does he have the mentality to be a first option? We know he'll accept the role if he has to, but he seems to prefer laying back a little bit as a 2nd or 3rd option at this point in his career, and until he proves different.

The other players who figure to be in the mix for most shot attempts are Baron Davis, Blake Griffin, & Al Thornton.

With BD being more of a pass first PG, and Thornton's well documented inefficiency, all signs point to Blake Griffin right out of the chute. Will this actually happen? I have no idea, but with any luck, our offense will make Griffin & EJ the focal points.

Of course, everything starts with BD. I've said this more than a few times before, but after all the off-season hype going into last year gave way to the season opener, we watched BD bring the ball up the floor last year without anyone to throw it into down low, other than the turnover prone Kaman, and without any real play makers to hand off to, other than Thornton, who excels more in a transition game, and so all the early losing the team endured seemed almost pre-determined.

Heading into this year, BD will have a lot more talent to help facilitate with both Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon. And it's really with these three players that make up the core of what the team can hope to accomplish this upcoming season. They represent our chance at a competitive advantage, and though our options at Center (& the bench) have a chance at being well above average as well, they will mostly help facilitate what the BD-BG-EJ trifecta can accomplish against the rest of the NBA's best. The good news with these three, is that they all appear plenty motivated, and to have good chemistry from what we can tell so far. At least EJ & BG appeared to have an instant rapport in summer league, and we know that BD is already a fan of both players.

The wild card to these dynamics is obviously Al Thornton. While receiving big playing time as a rookie, AT on average accounted for about 14% of the teams shot attempts two years ago (while he played), which is coincidentally what EJ accounted for last year in his rookie season. In Thornton's sophmore campaign last year, that number rose to 18%, tying him for second place with Baron Davis at 18%, while Zach did in fact take the most shots when he did play, by taking 21.5% of all shots. If you sub in Blake Griffin for Zach, and maybe shave a couple of points off of that, it's pretty obvious that you'd like to see Thornton's shot attempts drop the most prominently, and with the addition of Butler, that may very well become true. Next, BD could stand to shoot a bit less, and most importantly, EJ's shot attempts have to go up to somewhere near 20% along with Griffin.

Here's an optimistic shot distribution projection for 09-10:

Blake Griffin - 19%

Eric Gordon - 18.5%

Baron Davis - 15.5%

Thornton - 11%

Kaman - 11%

Camby - 8%

Bench - 17%

*Note: During our famed 2005 season, Elton Brand took about 23.5% of the teams shots.

In looking at all these numbers, something did strike me as kind of interesting. Before last season, the Clippers averaged 78 shot attempts per game the previous 4 years (04-05 thru 07-08) with a range from 77.1 to 78.6. Last year, that number rose to 81.7, an up-tick of about 5%. For how frustratingly slow our offense seemed last year, it was still the quickest it's been in the dunleavy era. With the more athletic Blake Griffin running the floor in place of Randolph, that figure is naturally likely to increase once again.

Poll

Who would you like to see lead the team in shot attempts in 09-10?

Eric Gordon

49 votes

Blake Griffin

18 votes

Baron Davis

10 votes

Al Thornton

2 votes

79 votes | Poll has closed

Resetting the Draft

ghost_ride — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:20:54 -0000

If the Clippers hired me to play GM for the draft, this is how I would approach it. I've seen enough mock drafts w/ Thabeet going to us at the 3 spot to be more than a little concerned, but hopefully we'll be competent enough to avoid him.

#1. Ricky Rubio - Many are tempted to put him in the #1 spot, and it's easy to see why if you watch any film on him. He's a throw-back kind of player that could not only be great, but one of the most exciting to watch lead a team. With the fan base and executives anywhere from disappointed to infuriated w/ BD's 1st season, this could be just the face lift the team needs. As recently mentioned in the previous thread, Rubio & EJ have the potential to make for one of the most youthful & explosive back courts in the league. Probability of drafting #1: 17.7%

#2. Blake Griffin - For strong reason, the consensus 1st overall pick would bring plenty of buzz to the Clippers, but Griffin wouldn't figure to have the kind of impact that the team needs in the short term, nor would he seem to have the edge on long term upside when compared to Rubio. He's definitely the most prudent pick at #1 due to his very high floor, but the Clippers don't need solid, they need transcendent. On the other hand, Griffin would seem like a dream pick for OKC...Probability of drafting #2: 17.3%

Probability of drafting 1 or 2 : 35% Unfortunately, we must come to grips with the fact that we are unlikely to draft Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio. While we have a solid chance of getting here, the reality is that we can't be too disappointed when the odds aren't in our favor. If it's any consolation, the Wizards only have a 35.2% chance of landing in the top 2 spots while the Kings are also under 50% likely go 1st or 2nd @ 46.5%

#3. DeMar DeRozan - Pick #3 is where it starts to get interesting, but what I like about DeMar is that he for sure has an NBA body w/ a ton of upside, and in the small amount of experience we have to go on, he played his best at the right time. Despite the merry-go-round exploits of his "posse", he seems like a good kid, and think he projects as a nice upgrade over Thornton because he's got a better shooting stroke and because he has an easier time deffering to teammates. He'll need to be coached, especially on the defensive end, but it's hard to pass up on this kind of talent, especially after Thornton's stock sliding over the past year. Unless someone goes overboard trying to trade up to get him, I take this guy all the way here. Probability of drafting #3: 16.4%

At least we are likely to land in the top 3 w/ an overall 51.4% chance.

#4. Brandon Jennings - Ricky Rubio aside, he's the only other PG that really stands out from the pack of solid points coming out this year. Like DeRozan, he's a hometown kid with plenty of upside to spare and is arguably more skilled at his position than DeRozan, but questions about how his body will hold up in the NBA persist. While he boasts more quickness and flash than Rubio, he doesn't seem to have that "heart of a champion" determination that Rubio plays with, though he does possess an inner toughness & cool about him that could prove to be very effective just as well. Would be slightly more willing to trade out of this spot, but am still plenty intruiged to take a shot and draft him. Probability of drafting #4 - 19.5%

#5. Jordan Hill - I don't like Hill at #3 or 4 as much because I like the idea of us taking a bold move rather than a safe pick this time, not that Hill is the safest pick around. No doubt he's improved tremendously over the last couple of years, but that also means he wasn't very good just a short time ago and his game still obviously needs plenty of work. Taking Harden, and dealing him shortly thereafter might be another option here, or just trading down or out altogether, just depends what we get back. Probability of drafting #5: 25%

Scary thought: We have about as much chance of drafting #4 or 5 (44.5%) as Sacramento has of drafting #1 or 2 (46.5%).

#6. With a 4% chance of landing here, we're obviously a big longshot to wind up having to be in this position, but if we do, we should be able to take one of the aforementioned players, especially with Thabeet & Harden projected in the top 5. If all else fails, we'd be all but forced to trade our pick, but the group of guys who figure to round out the lottery are Earl Clark, Stephen Curry, Gerald Henderson, Ty Lawson, Chase Budinger, Jonny Flynn, Erik Maynor, Tyreke Evans, & James Johnson. Donatas Mantiejunas (international player) is showing up on ESPN's simulator, but I don't know much about him.

Danny Granger's Knee's

ghost_ride — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 19:53:25 -0000

Danny Granger's Knee's

Probably old news to some of you, but I never knew the reason why so many GM's passed on Granger in the draft.

The "JV Team" v.s. The "Real Clippers"

ghost_ride — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 18:44:01 -0000

It's pretty crazy to think about, but I really think that we've been watching a team closer to the actual Clippers than a JV team these last few games. The JV team has just recently played a decently competitive game against the Lakers, actually finishing a margin better than the Spurs or Cavs have managed. They've also been able to notch a couple actual wins, which is big for any Clipper team this year, and last night we watched them play the Trailblazers tough for 3 quarters, coming off a back to back w/ a short flight sandwiched inbetween.

A big reason the JV Team hasn't been a joke is that the Point Guard play has really stepped up in BD's absence. Mardy Collins for a while, and lately Fred Jones has really been knocking down shots. With as bad as BD was playing this year, have we really been losing much here? Trump card of course is that BD finds his past form, or at least something much better than what we've seen.

DeAndre has also done a pretty good job filling in for Center. He's no where near as reliable and steady as Camby, but he can make some pretty explosive plays that neither Kaman or Camby can. And for all the wacked out stuff we see from DeAndre, don't a lot of those mistakes often remind you of another Clipper Center on our roster? Hint: He's the longest tenured Clipper.

And Novak has been a huge boost offensively, and wouldn't have been getting this playing time otherwise. Crazy as it sounds, I'd say the difference in those positions are pretty negligible.

Hands down the biggest difference in this JV Team we've been watching and the Real Clippers is Zach Randolph. We've all seen we're a different team with him establishing a pecking order in our offense.

And obviously, we'll have plenty of depth to look forward to once the Real Clippers are back in action...maybe we can even spare ourselves of an alleged (but highly suspicious) nba point guard currently on our roster.

What the hope is though, is that the JV Team will have learned something from their experience fending for themselves. EJ & AT will hopefully be better players for it, and be somewhat overqualified, or just better qualified for their roles. Novak will be a regular contributor, our back-up point guard spot will be plenty robust, and project DeAndre status' might be changing to useful DeAndre.

Clippers 101, Bucks 92

ghost_ride — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 08:54:14 -0000

In front of an enthusiastic crowd at Staples center, the Clippers put forth one of their most satisfying victories of the year tonight, snapping their 12 game losing streak against a solid Bucks team that easily handled them 12 games ago in Milwaukee.

The Clippers didn't feature a go to scorer or a high volume shooter tonight, but had 6 players score between 12 and 18 points, with the bench chipping in for a robust 26. That's pretty balanced scoring to say the least. Everyone who played helped the cause with the exception of Fred Jones, who managed 4 turnovers and a missed shot (block against) in just under 10 minutes. Just a brutal game for him.

Camby had one of his most complete offensive performances as a Clipper, aggressively and efficiently attacking the rim and making his outside shots to go 9 for 13 from the field. His front court counter-part, Brian Skinner was shockingly productive as well, putting forth his highest offensive output (18 pts on 8/12 shooting) since April of 2004. Solid rebounding (8) and interior defense (4 blocks) made his performance all the more impressive...So is this why we keep the guy around?

If Skinner's play came out of left field, it was Al Thornton's team oriented line that brought the house down.

13 pts (5/9 FG's in 39 minutes)
8 rebounds
5 assists (ties a career high)
4 blocks (ties a career high)
1 turnover

Yes, Al Thornton. The efficient, low volume shooter, who shares the basketball, rebounds, and makes big defensive plays w/out turning the ball over? Well, for one night anyway. Thank god we won the game, which hopefully gives him some positive reinforcement in how to help the team win without having to score. Side note: His total of 9 (assists + blocks) was 50% more than his previous career high of 6.

Ricky Davis played more or less the way we expected him to play based on last years stats. It was not without a lucky bank shot, and some major contributions to poor ball movement, but he made some big shots when the team needed them and that's what the team has needed.

Gordon continued to struggle a bit from the field but hit a couple big threes and created a wide open 3 for Ricky Davis that was one of the most important plays of the game. His defense continued to be eye popping...fighting through screens and closing out at the 3 pt. line (take good notes Thornton). He finished w/ 4 steals & a block.

Mardy Collins seems to have locked up the back up point guard spot...now who saw this coming? He needs to work on his free throw shooting and show an ability to bring the ball up a little quicker, but other than that he's showing rock-like reliability.

Of course the biggest news of the night was Marcus Camby's injury in the 2nd half. As he slowly walked off the court, it gave the Clipper faithful a chance to show their appreciation for the player who has taken over the teams "lead by example" leadership role left vacant by Elton Brand's departure. Minutes after heading to the locker room, he came back to the bench and received another rousing ovation from the crowd. His coming back to the bench was obviously a great sign going forward, and a huge lift for everyone.

Afterwards, it seemed that the team needed this win just to stay sane. The guys who've been forced to step up due to all the injuries finally proved they could win a game, and also look pretty good while doing it.

Salvaging the Season

ghost_ride — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 20:03:18 -0000

It's amazing to think of our once 8-18 record as the good old days. Some of us still dreamed that a herculean finish to the season could allow us to sneak into the playoffs. Now, we keep hearing players and coaches talking about "Trying to Salvage the Season".

Dunleavy was on AM710 last night doing a pretty good job of explaining why we're in the spot that we're in, citing injuries, and that BD isn't as worthless as he seems (8 assists per game), he's just off to a poor shooting start. Apparently, his objective is to get all the players back healthy and show the fan base what the team is capable of heading in to next year, which isn't much of a surprise. Whether he'll be able to effectively lead a disorganized, talent-laden team is another question for the beleaguered head coach & gm.

The current losing streak has seen us play competitively against the better teams in the league, but then so have other bottom feeders like OKC & Minnesota. With any given team seemingly capable of victory on any given night in the NBA, the ability to close out games may be the biggest difference between the winners and losers, and one area we've proven to be especially deficient. All weaknesses seem to arise when the game is on the line: Lack of team chemistry, judgement, focus, leadership, execution, determination.

As we start to see our team get healthy again, hopefully we'll get to evaluate fair and square what this team will be capable of heading into next year.