
giantsrainman
Mar 22, 2008 May 24, 2012 160 6831
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When Did Amphetamines Use Become Cheating In MLB?
I can think of 5 possible answers and I am interested in which this community thinks is the correct one.
1) It has always been cheating since the very first time a WWII vet returned to MLB and popped one to restore his focus and improve his energy.
2) In 1971 when the Controlled Substances Act outlawed their use in the US without a valid prescription.
3) In 1991 when Fay Vincent's Drug Policy Letter declared that the use of any illegal drug was strickly forbidden by any MLB or MiLB personnel including players.
4) In 2006 when the MLB and the MLBPA agreed to randomly test and punish for their use.
5) It has never been cheating as even today it is easy to get a "therapeutic use exemption" to use them.
When Did Steroids Use Become Cheating In MLB?
In order to have the ability to later compare the Amphetamines Poll with this Steroids Poll I am going to use the same 5 possible answers. I will however adjust four of these answers slightly to account for the following four slightly different historical circumstances. 1) The first know use of steroids in MLB was in the early 1970s by Tom House who admitted his use but it is possible that use by others could have occured as early as right after WWII just as amphetamines use did since both were available then and legal without a prescription. 2) Steroids were not included in the original 1971 Controlled Substances Act but were added much later in 1990 with an amendment. 3) In 2004 MLB and the MLBPA agreed to testing with penalties for steroids use two years earlier then their 2006 agreement on testing with penalties for amphetamines use. 4) Unlike amphetamines it is very difficult to get a "therapeutic use exemption" for steroids as I am not aware of any such "exemption" having ever been granted.
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When Did Amphetamines Use Become Cheating In MLB?
I can think of 5 possible answers and I am interested in which this community thinks is the correct one.
1) It has always been cheating since the very first time a WWII vet returned to MLB and popped one to restore his focus and improve his energy.
2) In 1971 when the Controlled Substances Act outlawed their use in the US without a valid prescription.
3) In 1991 when Fay Vincent's Drug Policy Letter declared that the use of any illegal drug was strickly forbidden by any MLB or MiLB personnel including players.
4) In 2006 when the MLB and the MLBPA agreed to randomly test and punish for their use.
5) It has never been cheating as even today it is easy to get a "therapeutic use exemption" to use them.
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This Coming Offseason How Much Money Will The Warriors Be Able to Spend On Free Agents?
Under the current NBA CBA the Soft Cap is likely to be somewhere Just under $55M. The Warriors already have just under $50M commited to 10 players for next season. This just does not seem to leave any room for signing the "Big" we have all heard they intend to sign. This would mean they would need to do a sign a trade (ala David Lee) to make this add. But just what high dollar contract could we actually trade that we would want to trade? I just do not see any team being kind enough to take Biedrins off our hands in such a trade.
We have also heard that the NBA would like to begin phasing in a Hard Cap with the yet to be bargined new CBA. I am starting to think that the Warriors believe this Hard Cap will eliminate the restrictions of the current Soft Cap and allow them to spend more. If say this Hard Cap were to be set at $65M and there would no longer be a Soft Cap then the Warriors would have $15M to spend signing this much desired "Big".
What say GSOM?
Cohn Has It Right
Our rotation has become the problem and if their failures continue they will be the reason we do not make the playoffs.
Ryan Rohlinger Optioned To Fresno
The Giants are returning to a 8 man bullpen and only a 4 man bench.
Rainman Rant - Sabean, Fix The GD Bullpen!
Apart from Wilson and Romo our bullpen is crap. They consistently struggle to throw strikes and almost as consistently give up big hits after they have dug themselves a hole with their failure to throw strikes. Leave the position players and rotation alone. Fixing the bullpen should be the one and only priority of this upcoming trade deadline.
Renteria And Burrell Need To Be Everyday Players
Torres, Huff, Uribe and Sandoval are the only Giants currently on pace to have enough PAs to qualify for the batting title and there is zero reason to take any of them out of the starting lineup. In addition Freddy Sanchez has shown since his returm from the DL that he belongs in the everyday lineup. Sitting either Renteria or Burrell to play any of Posey, Molina, Whiteside, Ishikawa, Schierholtz, or Rowand makes very little sense. Both Renteria and Burrell are not only on fire but have the track record to support believing that they can stay good (even if not this good) for the remainder of the year. The top 7 in the batting order should be:
Torres CF, Sanchez 2B, Renteria SS, Huff RF. Uribe 3B, Burrell LF, Sandoval 1B
This just leaves one open starting position player spot at catcher left to decide. Like most of you I think now is the time for Bengie to pass the torch to Buster. But if the Giants do not agree then they need to send Posey back to Fresno so that we can make sure he will not qualify for super two after the 2012 season.
With this top 7 I am of the opinion that the Giants do not need to seek an upgrade to the lineup. I would prefer that the Giants pursue a bullpen upgrade for the 8th inning or even better yet a big time 5th starter upgrade like one of the aces expected to be available at the trade deadline.
If you don't want to come here and play and hit for this pitching staff we have, then you don't want to win.
Bowker Back In Bochy's Doghouse?
A righthander is starting for the Astro's but Bruce goes with Torres anyway. I really don't get this. i just can't believe that John having one of the team's 9 ofers yesterday is the reason. This just does not make any sense.
Our Offensive Worries Are Over - Big Money Hitting Clean Up Again
Aubrey Huff is in the lineup but dropped to 5th.
Believe It Or Not
According to Fangraphs your San Francisco Giants after the first 21 games are second in the NL in total team WAR at 7.7 trailing the Colorado Rockies by a mere 0.2. This Giants Pitchers have thus far contributed 4.1 WAR trailing only the Cubs 4.5 WAR and tied with the Cardinals. The most hard to believe element of this is that the Giants Position Players are actually 5th in the NL having produced 3.6 WAR which is only exceeded by the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres at 5.6, 4.4, 4.2, and 3.8 respectively.
NL Team WAR For Position Players
Would any of you have guessed that the WAR produced thus far by the Giants Position Players would be 5th in the NL while being next to last (4th) in NL West?
Who Leaves When Freddy Sanchez Returns From DL?
It is pretty clear to me that Matt Downs will return to Fresno when Aaron Rowand comes of the DL around May 3rd. I am less sure what the Giants will do around May 10th when Freddy Sanchez seems likely to return from the DL. In your answer to the following poll tell me what you think the Giants will do and in your comments to this fanpost tell me what you think the Giants should do.
Outside Of The Box Thinking - Why Not Posey In The OF?
Clearly Buster is more then good enough of an athlete to handle LF. If he can play SS in college he can play LF in MLB. I know many of you think Schierholtz and especially Bowker have not been given resonable chances to prove they belong as everyday members of the strarting lineup. But I also know that most of you realize that neither of these are as likely to suceed with the bat as Buster Posey is. My view is that the very best lineup (overall combining offensive and defensive) the Giants could put on the field every day includes Buster Posey, Bengie Molina, and Aubrey Huff and does not include John Bowker or Nate Schierholtz when Aaron Rowand returns from the DL. I think the Giants should go with the following everyday lineup against both lefties and righties now and replace Schierholz with Rowand when Aaron returns.
Buster Posey LF
Mark DeRosa RF
Juan Uribe 2B
Aubrey Huff 1B
Bengie Molina C
Nate Schierholtz CF
If the Giants decide to do this they will either option Eli Whiteside (my preference) or John Bowker to Fresno if they really think they can't get by without a dedicated backup catcher. My view is that having two backup catchers starting at other positions (Posey in LF and Sandoval at 3B) makes having a third backup catcher that is exclusively a backup catcher completely unnecessary but somehow I think Bruce Bochy will not agree.
Sooner or later this is what I think the Giants are going to do. They may decide to move Huff to LF and play Posey at 1B but the net result will be the same.
A (small) crime in San Francisco
Bengie Molina last night did not tie Bob Brenly for most career RBIs as a SF Giant Catcher. Depending upon how one counts (RBIs while being the catcher of record or RBIs of players whose primary position is catcher) Bengie still has 62 or 57 to go to catch Bob Brenly or Tom Haller.
When I heard this last night I thought Tom Haller and Dick Dietz were being forgotten and now I now Kruk and Keip were indeed given bad info by their producers.
Very sloppy work. We have a right to expect better.
Tom Tango Agrees With The Rainman
Controlling HR/FB Rate is a skill and not just a matter of luck.
Calling Beatown415 To Discuss Our Avatar Bet
Fangraphs has now calculated the Zips wOBA Projections so we can now see where we are at. In addition, Fangraphs now shows upward adjustments in the Chone wOBA Projections for Sandoval, Huff, and Molina.
Chone wOBA Projections
Rowand .323
Sanchez .318
Sandoval .385
Huff .336
DeRosa .335
Molina .311
Uribe .314
Renteria .317
ZIPS wOBA Projections
Rowand .339
Sanchez .329
Sandoval ..383
Huff .339
DeRosa .345
Molina .317
Uribe .327
Renteria ..325
Average Of Chone And ZIPS wOBA Projections
Rowand .3310
Sanchez .3235
Sandoval .3840
Huff .3375
DeRosa .3400
Molina .3140
Uribe .3205
Renteria .3210
Rainman wOBA Projections
Rowand .330
Sanchez .327
Sandoval .405
Huff .347
DeRosa .348
Molina .313
Uribe .316
Renteria .320
Kevin Frandsen Still Has An Option Left
This was a surprise to me as he used the normal three options allowed in 2006, 2007, and 2009 (on MLB DL or Roster for all of 2008). So I went to Cots Transactions Glossary and looked up Options to see if I could figure out how Kevin could still have an option left. Turns out that baseball has a funky rule that creates a forth option year for a player that does not yet have five full years of professional service and Frandsen falls under this rule. You might ask, how is this possible since Kevin began his professional career at Salem Keizer in 2004? Well, the answer is that short season leagues don't count as professional years and neither do seasons in which you have less then 60 days of non DL time like 2008 in Frandsen's case. Thus in Kevin's case only 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2009 count as professional seasons and thus he does not yet have five of them.
The In Context Case For The Franchise Getting $13M
Prior to Tim Lincecum only one other pitcher in MLB history has entered his first year of arbitration having already earned two Cy Young Awards. In addition only two other pitchers have entered their first years of arbitration having already earned a single Cy Young Award. In all three of these instenses the first year of arbitration was 1988. The three pitchers respectively are Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, and Bret Saberhagan. If Super 2 had existed in 1987 all three of these pitchers would have qualified as they started their careers in 1984 but not early enough in 1984 to get credit for a full year of service and thus did not qualify for arbitraitn until 1988. The records of these three pitchers entering their first year of arbitration and the Franchise's are as follows:
Roger Clemens 60-22, 767 Innings, 694/216 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP, 3.11 ERA, 2 CYs, 1 MVP
Dwight Gooden 73-26, 924 Innings, 892/275 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP, 2.46 ERA, 1 CY, 1 ROY
Bret Saberhagan 55-39, 806 Innings, 506/156 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP, 3.39 ERA, 1 CY
Tim Lincecum 40-17, 599 Innings, 676/217 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP, 2.76 ERA, 2 CYs
In 1987 the salary structure of MLB was vastly different then it is now. The MLB Minimum Salary was $62K then while it is $400K today. In 1987 MLB's highest salary was Mike Schmidt's $2.127M while it was Alez Rodriguez's $33M in 2009. So we obviously can not just use the dollar figures from back then. But, perhaps we can use where these dollars figures rank compared to the dollar figures of other players. The first year arbitration salaries of Clemens, Gooden and Saberhagen in 1988 were $1.35M, $1.4M, and $1.1M which according to this link made them the 36th, 31st, and 54th highest paid players in all of MLB. Compared to 2009 salaries where does The Franchise's request of $13M rank relative to this? By my count using COTs there were 41 players last year paid more then the $13M Timmy is asking for while there were 105 paid more then the $8M the Giants offered.
In this context, which number looks closer to reality?
The Rainman Projections For The Franchise And Friends
| Name | W | L | ERA | GS | G | SV | IP | H | ER | HR | SO | BB | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | WAR | Edit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Lincecum | 19 | 7 | 2.75 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 225.0 | 172 | 69 | 16 | 262 | 68 | 1.07 | 10.48 | 2.72 | 3.85 | 7.4 | Edit |
| Matt Cain | 16 | 10 | 3.25 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 225.0 | 202 | 81 | 22 | 188 | 68 | 1.20 | 7.52 | 2.72 | 2.76 | 4.6 | Edit |
| Jonathan Sanchez | 13 | 10 | 3.75 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 195.0 | 180 | 81 | 19 | 206 | 91 | 1.39 | 9.51 | 4.20 | 2.26 | 3.8 | Edit |
| Barry Zito | 13 | 10 | 4.25 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 195.0 | 191 | 92 | 24 | 141 | 80 | 1.39 | 6.51 | 3.69 | 1.76 | 2.0 | Edit |
| Other Starters | 9 | 15 | 4.75 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 165.0 | 172 | 87 | 21 | 119 | 68 | 1.45 | 6.49 | 3.71 | 1.75 | 1.6 | Edit |
| Brian Wilson | 4 | 1 | 2.75 | 0 | 75 |
41 | 75.0 | 58 | 23 | 5 | 88 | 31 | 1.19 | 10.56 | 3.72 | 2.84 | 1.9 | Edit |
| Sergio Romo | 4 | 4 | 3.25 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 75.0 | 68 | 27 | 5 | 79 | 18 | 1.15 | 9.48 | 2.16 | 4.39 | 1.9 | Edit |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 4 | 4 | 3.25 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 75.0 | 68 | 27 | 5 | 62 | 31 | 1.32 | 7.44 | 3.72 | 2.00 | 0.9 | Edit |
| Brandon Medders | 4 | 4 | 3.75 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 75.0 | 73 | 31 | 5 | 62 | 35 | 1.44 | 7.44 | 4.20 | 1.77 | 0.5 | Edit |
| Other Relievers | 4 | 7 | 5.25 | 0 | 153 | 0 | 153.0 | 152 | 88 | 17 | 112 | 88 | 1.57 | 6.59 | 5.18 | 1.27 | -0.6 | Edit |
| Total | 90 |
72 |
3.74 |
162 |
162 |
41 |
1458.0 |
1336 |
606 |
139 |
1319 |
578 |
1.31 |
8.14 |
3.57 |
2.28 |
24.0 | Edit |
| 2009 | 88 |
74 | 3.55 |
162 |
162 |
41 |
1446.0 |
1268 |
571 |
140 |
1302 |
584 |
1.28 |
8.10 |
3.63 |
2.23 |
21.7 | Edit |
PECOTA Triple Slashes For The McCoven's Seven Dwarfs
This is subscription only so to get more you have to go here and subscribe.
But I think I am safe in providing this limited to avg/obp/slg for the seven veterans so many of you love to hate on.
Mark DeRosa .267/.346/.438
Aubrey Huff .274/.340/.436
Aaron Rowand .272/.342/.430
Edgar Renteria .284/.342/.401
Bengie Molina .280/.317/.434
Freddy Sanchez.278/.323/398
Juan Uribe .254/.306/.411
Details On The Voiding Of Duanel Jones' Contract
The Giants confirmed that Major League Baseball has voided the contract of Dominican third-base prospect Duanel Jones, who signed in December for a reported $1.3 million bonus.
Giants vice president of baseball operations Bobby Evans said that Jones failed a physical examination, prompting the club to ask for the deal to be scrapped. Jones injured an oblique muscle last year.
Crazy Idea!
Should the Giants consider offering Johnny Damon a one year backloaded contract? This can be done by structuring the deal as a 1 year at about $2M with a team option for a second year at about $10M or around a $5M buyout paid over about 5 years at around $1M each.
A Suprising View On Brian Sabean From BP
Subscription required to read how this was calculated and get more details. Hopefully I am safe providing this link and quote of the end results.
Finally, the best- and worst-run teams of the decade:
Team GMs PER 1. Oakland Athletics Billy Beane (2000-09) 1.52 2. St. Louis Cardinals Walt Jocketty (2000-07), John Mozeliak (2008-09) 1.25 3. Cleveland Indians John Hart (2000-01), Mark Shapiro (2002-09) 1.18 4. San Francisco Giants Brian Sabean (2000-09) 1.16 5. Toronto Blue Jays Gord Ash (2000-01), J.P. Ricciardi (2002-09) 1.16 --- --- --- 26. Pittsburgh Pirates Cam Bonifay (2000-01), Dave Littlefield (2002-07), Neal Huntington (2008-09) .97 27. Los Angeles Dodgers Kevin Malone (2000-01), Dan Evans (2002-03), Paul DePodesta (2004-05), Ned Colletti (2006-09) .95 28. Baltimore Orioles Syd Thrift (2000-02), Mike Flanagan/Jim Beattie (2003-07), Andy MacPhail (2008-09) .92 29. New York Yankees Brian Cashman (2000-09) .87 30. New York Mets Steve Phillips (2000-03), Jim Duquette (2004), Omar Minaya (2005-09) .81 With that, on to the debate on the results.
Just How Lucky Were The 2009 San Francisco Giants?
I did a little research on Fangraphs focusing on wRAA for hitters, UZR for fielders, and RAR for the pitching staff. The Giants hitters (including pitchers) combined for a very bad -118 wRAA vs a NL average of -27 (AL was +31). The Giants fielders combined for a very good +51 UZR vs a NL (AL and MLB) average of Zero. The Giants pitchers combined for a very good +201 RAR vs a NL average of +128 (AL was +172).
In total relative to the average NL team the 2009 Giants were 33 runs above NL average (-91 Hitting, +51 Fielding, and +73 Pitching). An average NL team won 80 games (AL average was 82). In the NL run environment these 33 runs were worth 4 wins so the Giants should have won 84 games and thus were lucky to win an additional 4 to get to 88. Some might argue that the above pitching and fielding contained some luck too. However I think this can be disputed especially for pitchers since RAR is based on FIP (not ERA) and thus not likely impacted much by luck. I would also argue that the defense was real as the leaders of the pack where Randy Winn and his +16.5 UZR which is very much in line with his 4+ year track record as a Giant and Travis Ishikawa and his +10.4 UZR which is very much in line with the consensus scouting opinion that he is one of the top defensive 1Bs in all of baseball if not the very best.
The Giants then are starting 2010 from an 84 win base and not an 88 win base. This begs the question, are we any better? We have lost Randy Winn's defense and benched Travis Ishikawa's. Have the players added not only made up for this lost defense with their gloves and/or bats but have they increased the Giants relative runs compared to the NL average? I am not going to address this now as I still have work to do on my "Rainman Projections For The Franchise And Friends" which I need to compete before I can do this. But, by all means share what you are thinking if you have already reached a conclusion on this.
One other item I would like to open up to discussion is the very large (44 runs!) advantage in RAR that the average AL pitching staff has over the average NL pitching staff. I understand the 58 run advantage the average AL team has over the average NL team in wRAA (DH vs pitchers hitting) but I just can not get my mind around this advantage the average AL team seems to have over the average NL team in pitching. What say the McCoven?
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