I don't know how y'all feel, but I think OKC is by far our biggest rival. Going back to the Seattle days the I-5 rivalry was always my favorite. You don't really hate them like you hate the Lakers, to where it's pure unadulterated animosity, but you want to beat them bad because it's like playing the guy you've known since you were a kid and you might even kind of be friends, so the rivalry means all that much more. Then a bunch of mouth-breathing hicks from Oklahoma stole the Sonics from Seattle and most of us kind of thought the rivalry was dead.

But then, low and behold, the 2007 NBA draft lotter happened and we got the #1 pick and Seattle got #2. And when the draft came around we had a big decision to make. And a lot of people became pretty emotionally invested in that decision and most of us wanted the big GO, and we got him. And OKC took Durant with #2. Forever history will link these two players and these two franchises for that fateful day. And we all know how history has unfolded to date. Durant is currently the 2010-2011 league scoring champion and Oden has had two freak unexplained season ending knee injuries and one freak mid-season fractured patella season ending knee injury. For those keeping track at home that is 3 season-ending knee injuries in four years. Meanwhile, KD played for the USA team last summer, lead the team in scoring, proved he was a winner and he and his running-mate Russel Westbrook (UCLA product, blech) became the darlings of the NBA prognosticators. 

All of a sudden, even though OKC ended last season in the 8 seed in the west and Portland finished higher with the 6 seed, all these "experts" were picking OKC as the young team de jour. And Portland was being picked to finish 8th! No major roster changes, no other reason than Durant is the darling of the NBA and people just wanted OKC to be better. And as a Blazer fan, that made me angry. Our team, talent-wise and based on history, should have been picked to win more games than OKC. And yet everybody was picking those red-state ignoramuses' team to beat out the Blazers. Well, suffice it to say, I was was saying to myself "we'll just see about that."

And then, low and behold, it came true. Oklahoma City beat the Blazers head to head the first time they played this season in a game I thought Portland should have won. Brandon Roy became a shell of his former self and our best player was effectively a liability, and OKC kept winning more games than the Blazers and they remained in the top half of the western conference standings we the Blazers, with injuries heaped on injuries, did not. It almost seemed like the Zombie Sonics heard everybody's predictions that they were good, believed them, and played accordingly. Meanwhile, Portland dealt with emotional blow and after emotional blow when Greg Oden, the Brandon Roy, and then Marcus Camby went down with injuries and they stood there and took those blows but they were tired, beaten up and fuzzy-headed from all the beatings they had taken. OKC was handed everything this season. Everybody liked them. everybody told them they were better, they lived the charmed golden boy life of a chosen, anointed winner. Meanwhile Portland was everybody's sad, cautionary tale about what can happen.

Now here we are. The last chance this season to preserve some small bit of pride against a team that I maintain, player for player, should not be as good as the Blazers. And once again us Blazer fans are thrust into the underdog role. Nobody believes in us, everybody feels bad for us, but ultimately nobody cares because we're just some small market team without a superstar, without the cache of a proven #1 scorer, without much hope. Except that little does everybody know that we have heart, a new guy named Gerald Wallace who will flatten you, two cagey veterans who know all the tricks, fundamentally sound young Wes$ and Nick Batum who play both team offense and defense the right away, a Spaniard who's weird shooting slump has to end sometime, a beasting power forward that can beat you inside and outside, an alien who stole Brandon Roy's body but still has Roy's skill and clutch scoring ability, and a secret weapon in a magical aboriginal medium who creates an otherworldly link between the spirit of the basketball and the spirit of the bottom of the net. So I say let's make this our game seven before we get to an actual game 7. 

I for one relish this one last opportunity to shove it down OKC's throat. Because no matter what people may say, this Blazer team is better than OKC. Serge Ibaka is okay, obviously Westbrook and Durant are good players, and Perkins adds toughness that you have to respect. But beyond that this OKC team is not nearly as good as they think they are. And I would really love to cut them down a notch.

Well, that's my story of why I think OKC is our biggest rival, why I'm bitterly disappointed to have lost 3 games to them this season, and why I really hope we blow them out tonight. Go Blazers!

Coach McMillan has done a good job getting this team to where they are, but can he take us to the next level? This is a familiar refrain, but I continue to note some specific deficiencies in the way the Blazers play. 

The biggest problem: the offense. The Blazers spend most of their offense possessions standing and watching a high screen and roll, with occasional back cuts and screens. Sometimes we feed the post, but that is a completely stagnant set. The ball stays still, the players run around and eventually they look to get the ball to Aldridge down low. Mostly I see a lot of the ball staying in one plays, players running around, then everybody stops and the ball gets passed for a one on one move. After everybody stops moving they move the ball and try to catch the defense rotating out of a double team. Usually the ball is not fast enough to catch the defense out of position, or if not we get an open jump shot that either goes in or doesn't. When it goes in that's great but as we all know the Blazers don't shoot a great percentage from outside so we don't win games that way. My opinion is that the offensive sets the Blazers run simply aren't very good. Most of the good shots we get on cuts and dishes around the basket come from creative individual plays where players are riffing and improvising out of broken sets. And we have good smart basketball players to do that kind of thing, but that does not make it "good offense." Good offense is execution of sets with a purpose and getting shots that are reproducible, high percentage. The Blazers don't execute on offense with a purpose because 90% of the time they don't really know where their next basket is coming from. To me, that is 100% on the coach not having a well developed strategy for how we are supposed to score. Coach McMillan thinks it should just happen naturally, but other teams like the Spurs and Lakers have a system on offense. The Blazers don't. That is the biggest problem with this team right now and it is 100% on the coach. 

The defensive problem: Largely Portland is a good defensive team. But there is one thing they always do, that they have been doing for years, that is wrong and continues to not get fixed under Nate McMillan. Can anybody guess what this is? I'll bet 70% of you know exactly what I'm talking about before I say it. Other teams target this bad defensive practice and exploit it at end of game situations mercilessly. I don't even have to say it because you already know. It's Chris Paul, Manu Gionobli, whoever the other teams best one on one clutch scorer at the end of the game isolated one on one against LaMarcus Aldridge. He always switches on the high screens. Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb. Now, I believe Aldridge is a pretty good one on one defensive player. He can move his feet very well laterally for a man his size. But he should not be switching out onto the Gionoblis of the league all the time. There is a proper way to guard the pick and roll. The big man hedges out onto the ballhandler for an instance, pushes them away from the basket to give the other defender time to recover, then the smaller defender SWITCHES BACK and the big man goes back to his man. Often a third defense helps briefly to cover the back man to make sure he can't roll to the basket for an easy 2. This is a skill that you develop, practice and learn. It is the right way to guard the pick and roll. Nate McMillan tells reporters all the time the team has a policy of not switiching on these. And yet, ALDRIDGE DOES IT EVERY SINGLE TIME. One thing I noticed, Gerald Wallace does it right. When it's his man who is going over the screen he switches back. Aldridge stands there doing his usual "naw man I got this," but Wallace switches back. At first, Aldridge looks around like "hey why are we both guarding the same guy?" Then he gets the hint and recovers to his own man. Gerald Wallace knows how to do it right. And the thing is, switching is a lazy practice. It's easier to switch it and not switch back. But Coach McMillan hasn't coached these guys to do it right.

These are my two indictments of Coach McMillan. The biggest thing is the offense. Also how can allow your team to make the same mistake on defense for years, literally years, and not correct it? That indicates a problem to me. But he's still better than most coaches I think and he's done a good job, but I worry about the future. They need to get an offensive guru in there or something. Hopefully they will start playing better before the playoffs. Gosh I hope they advance this year. 

Right now Portland has an excellent stable of big men.  We have one of the biggest, best front lines in the league.  Marcus Camby is one of the best rebounders and shotblockers in the league.  The new LaMarcus Aldridge is a top tier power forward who is only going to continue to improve now that he has figured out how to score inside.  He will likely make the All Star game if the Blazers continue to win more games heading into the All Star break.  I believe they will.  We have one of the better center/ power forward combinations in the league right now.  Also, we will have Pryzbilla back any day now, who is a starting caliber true 7 foot center.  With those three players we have a better stable of big men than most all the teams in the NBA.  Especially because Aldridge can swing down to the center and play that position better than most starting centers in the league (since a lot of players who start at center are undersized, and LaMarcus isn't 6'11" and therefore tall enough to play a true center position.  

The reason I made this fanpost was an attempt to accentuate part of the positive of the Blazers right now, to provide an opportunity for people to praise Mr. Aldridge's uncanny transformation from soft jump-shooting forward to true, beasting power forward, and to foster some debate about relative quality of our bigs.  I think they are quite good.  

Portland needs to run some offense in the 4th quarter.  Last night, everything was one on one, or one pass and one on one.  They weren't running any kind of coherent offense.  Sure, a pick and rolls and curls are nice, but  Portland needs to make the defense work more. That means getting the ball to move from one side to the other, forcing the defense to rotate.  I think this is one reason we struggle against Denver, where they have individual strength and athleticism, but maybe not the discipline to rotate against ball movement.  

It seemed like at the beginning of the game with Blake in there they were successful with running patterns, moving the ball around and forcing the defense to rotate.  This gets people the ball in positions to get higher percentage shots.  When Miller came in it was all one on one, pick and roll, one or two passes and tough shot. 

Portland just really needs to run offensive sets in the fourth quarter.  This has been a consistent weakness of this team over the years, in my opinion.

The man should never have been removed from his position.  He showed tonight he can still call the games.  Even if its every fortnight for half of a game, he should still be a radio play-by-play guy for the Blazers.  He's still got it.  The chemistry with Rice was amazing.   All class. 

I really hope the Blazers management was listening tonight to what we've all been missing these last years.  Who can say what would have happened, but I for one would like to see the man get his chance to do what he loves for as long as he wants, because he is still good.

Obviously, the Blazers have multiple players who are good at several positions.  They also have a few key/older players who are essential to success at playoff time.  Furthermore, some of the players who will be buried on the bench can contribute more if they get more minutes (Martel, Rudy and Outlaw come to mind.)  What I propose the Blazers do is this: give guys nights off routinely. 

I realize this is not usually done in the NBA.  However, the NBA schedule has too many games.  Most other leagues play half as many.  So there is no shortage of opportunity for guys to stay in shape and keep their game sharp.  Coming down the stretch and into the playoffs, having a fresh Brandon Roy, for example, will be critical.  And allowing some of those lesser players have more opportunities to play during the season should give them more confidence and sharpness should they be called upon during the post-season. 

So, what say all of you.  Should the Blazers give guys like Brandon and possibly others regular days off, say 2 or 3 games a month against lesser competition?  I think they should.

I believe the Blazers have solved their point guard problem for the upcoming season with the addition of Andre Miller.  However, Mr. Miller is legitimately old by NBA standards, and the long term answer at point guard has yet to be found.  I offer a suggestion for one possible solution that would best utilize the personnel we have now. 

We have seen the facility with which BRoy is capable of running the offense in the half-court.  But bringing the ball up the court can take its toll on Brandon's energy.  Rudy Fernandez consistently demonstrates inspired court vision and passing, in the half court.  But Rudy cannot bring the ball up the court, its just not one of his strengths.  I don't believe Rudy can "learn" to effectively bring ball up the court.  My conclusion is Rudy and Brandon can coexist very effectively as backcourt mates, in the half court.  The problem with playing them together is you need to play a point guard with them to bring the ball up the court, which in turn forces one of them (Brandon, again the more versetile) to defend a small forward.  Either way, Brandon get's too tired/beat up.  The solution I suggest:  A point forward.

Be it Nick Batum (in the event he shows his full court dribbling abilities can be relied upon), or bringing some other forward who has the skills to bring it up the court (a la Pippen, Odom, historically Diaw did it for a while, and even Garnett at times), the Blazers could very effectively field a team with Roy and Rudy in the back court, and Oden and LMA up front.  (I don't think Webster has the handles at all, so that's a non-starter IMO).  A starting lineup with Rudy, Roy Oden and LMA would be a deadly starting lineup, in my opinion. 

Whether the Blazers field a conventional starting lineup with a true point guard, or do something less conventional as I am suggesting they could, they are going to be very good for years to come.  I am looking forward to seeing how this and future seasons play out.  Go Blazers!