While this figure is above our current winning percentage (.571), it's not that hard to imagine given the new 4-man rotation and our August schedule.

Each of our starters (Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, and Kyle Lohse) gets six starts. Our #5 guys (BoggsThompsonWaltersMeyer) gets TWO. I've attached a table to show when and where. Going on past performance and matching up teams RS and RA, here's my prediction. The SP may or may not get the win; I'm predicting team W/L.

Picking up on HL's meme that the Cards need "Two Bats and an SP," I nominate the following players as the keys to a successful month and beyond.

The daily core is pretty well established; however TLR doesn't always play Rasmus them everyday: Yadi, Boog, Skip, Rasmus, & AP. I don't think there's any reason to monitor these guys. They're givens. DeRosa will also be in the lineup the majority of the time

First the "two bats" to watch: Ryan Ludwick &. . .  wait for it: Troy Glaus. If Ludwick returns to 2008 form, we have found one bat. Even close to that performance will be acceptable. The most recent games have been encouraging and I'm hopeful. Glaus is ready to begin swinging in his rehab. His last four seasons he has averaged .368 wOBA. If his shoulder allows him to throw at least as well as Thurston, Glaus will be an upgrade and DeRosa can platoon at 2B with Skip and play LF platoon w/Ank/DunK. If neither Ludwick or Glaus can perform this month, I believe Mo will make a deal. The wildcard in this scenario is Brett Wallace. A strong month in Memphis may find the Walrus in StL despite the FO's wishes. And of course Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel may have a hot streak to help, but given what they've done so far, I'm not that optimistic.

The SP situation is a little clearer. As I wrote in the daily thread, Wellemeyer's last start is an encouraging first step. Two more just like it and we have found our SP. Welley's WHIP last year was 1.25; this year it's 1.66, and for his career, 1.47. His FIP the first 1 1/2 years in StL was 4.56. In 2009, it's 4.81. Can Welley return to his previous form? Someone worth watching.

I will also be watching Kyle Lohse to see if he can return to pre-injury form. His season WHIP  (1.22) is better than last year's (1.30), but his FIP is higher (4.03 to 3.87). Carp, WW, and Pineiro have been solid so far, and while Jo-el may regress some, there's no reason to believe they all won't continue to be competitive. Again if Wellemeyer or Lohse prove inconsistent this month, I think Mo will look for a deal.

So there are my five to watch in July: two bats (Ludwick, Glaus, Wallace) and one SP (the Colonel and Lohse). Who will YOU be watching and why?

What's more important -- offense or defense-- in a SS or 2B? Does a slick-fielding, no  power MIF save or cost your team runs? There's a lively debate going on at PD's CardsTalk comparing Izturis, Eckstein & Ryan. http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=534150.

This issue got me thinking about the Cards bench. I'll try to summarize what others are saying about the above issue and give my thoughts on why I think the Cards shouldn't trade/buy any IF help. I also think that given our offensive weakness at the bottom of the order, we need to use the best hitters available.

Continue reading this post »