Five players I'm watching in July

gocards62 — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 21:38:12 -0000

Picking up on HL's meme that the Cards need "Two Bats and an SP," I nominate the following players as the keys to a successful month and beyond.

The daily core is pretty well established; however TLR doesn't always play ~~Rasmus~~ them everyday: Yadi, Boog, Skip, Rasmus, & AP. I don't think there's any reason to monitor these guys. They're givens. DeRosa will also be in the lineup the majority of the time

First the "two bats" to watch: Ryan Ludwick &. . . wait for it: Troy Glaus. If Ludwick returns to 2008 form, we have found one bat. Even close to that performance will be acceptable. The most recent games have been encouraging and I'm hopeful. Glaus is ready to begin swinging in his rehab. His last four seasons he has averaged .368 wOBA. If his shoulder allows him to throw at least as well as Thurston, Glaus will be an upgrade and DeRosa can platoon at 2B with Skip and play LF platoon w/Ank/DunK. If neither Ludwick or Glaus can perform this month, I believe Mo will make a deal. The wildcard in this scenario is Brett Wallace. A strong month in Memphis may find the Walrus in StL despite the FO's wishes. And of course Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel may have a hot streak to help, but given what they've done so far, I'm not that optimistic.

The SP situation is a little clearer. As I wrote in the daily thread, Wellemeyer's last start is an encouraging first step. Two more just like it and we have found our SP. Welley's WHIP last year was 1.25; this year it's 1.66, and for his career, 1.47. His FIP the first 1 1/2 years in StL was 4.56. In 2009, it's 4.81. Can Welley return to his previous form? Someone worth watching.

I will also be watching Kyle Lohse to see if he can return to pre-injury form. His season WHIP (1.22) is better than last year's (1.30), but his FIP is higher (4.03 to 3.87). Carp, WW, and Pineiro have been solid so far, and while Jo-el may regress some, there's no reason to believe they all won't continue to be competitive. Again if Wellemeyer or Lohse prove inconsistent this month, I think Mo will look for a deal.

So there are my five to watch in July: two bats (Ludwick, Glaus, Wallace) and one SP (the Colonel and Lohse). Who will YOU be watching and why?

Poll

Who are your key Cards to watch this month?

The search for bench players

gocards62 — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 16:49:55 -0000

What's more important -- offense or defense-- in a SS or 2B? Does a slick-fielding, no power MIF save or cost your team runs? There's a lively debate going on at PD's CardsTalk comparing Izturis, Eckstein & Ryan. http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=534150.

This issue got me thinking about the Cards bench. I'll try to summarize what others are saying about the above issue and give my thoughts on why I think the Cards shouldn't trade/buy any IF help. I also think that given our offensive weakness at the bottom of the order, we need to use the best hitters available.

Now CardsTalk discussion raises the issue of "lies, damn lies, and statistics." The Saber metrics guys argue that Izturis is the weaker of the three SS DEFENSIVELY. According to these stats, Ryan is the best, followed by Eck. The guys who use their own personnel "eyeballs" say that Izturis is better. Offensively the Eck/Ryan is a push and Izturis is clearly again the weakest, notwithstanding his good OBP% this year.

In looking at the Memphis IF offensive stats, there are several guys that are out performing Izturis (.204/.265/.361): J. Hoffpair (.387/.418/.391) and B. Barden (.290/.435/.375). Well, okay Hoff's not getting on base quite as much. There are two other guys who could be serviceable as Glaus's backup: J. Mather--on DL (.318/.464/.727), & D. Freese (.254/.460/.277).

Full disclosure: I haven't seen ANY of these guys play, I don't create my own stat sheets, and yes, I know it's not the same to compare ML and Pacific League. But the point I want to make is that it's preferable to give the Memphis guys a chance to prove themselves before trying to package a group of pitchers and prospects to get a bench player from elsewhere.

I'm willing to have Brendan Ryan play everyday SS, and I think defensively he'll be comparable to Izturis. He certainly will be more effective at the plate. I also think the Memphis guys mentioned above will be adequate to replace TGlaus when he needs a day off. Perhaps one or more will develop into a John Mabry or Scott Spiezio. They need to be given the chance.

Thanks for reading and be gentle to this first-time poster.

SB Nation User Blog: gocards62

Five players I'm watching in July

Who are your key Cards to watch this month?

The search for bench players