. . . until you read someone else's, which'll also be pretty good.

Continue reading this post »

Clearly, we're in the midst of an historic year for rookies. It's pretty astonishing to consider just how strong of a team you could put together with just rookies. I'll try to put together a 25 man roster of the rookies I'd most want on my squad; current year performance is weighted, though preference is given to long term potential. I'm looking for the squad that'll win the most games the rest of the year, with an eye towards giving more playing time to those I think would be long term answers. I'm sure I'll miss some guys, especially in the bullpen.

Lineup:

CF Tyler Colvin
DH Ike Davis
RF Jason Heyward
C Carlos Santana
1B Justin Smoak
LF Michael Stanton
3B Pedro Alvarez
2B Reid Brignac
SS Starlin Castro

Bench: Buster Posey, Brennan Boesch, Austin Jackson, Gaby Sanchez, Alcides Escobar

 

SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Jaime Garcia
SP Mike Leake
SP Brian Matusz
SP Jake Arrieta

CL Neftali Feliz
RP Sergio Santos
RP Alexi Ogando
RP Jonathan Venters
RP Jenrry Mejia
SW Jonathon Niese

Is this a 2010 playoff team?

I've just traded away Pedro Alvarez in a 30 team DMB league (for Chase Headley and Franklin Morales), mostly because I'm starting to get spooked that he's in some sort of Andy Marte-Alex Gordon vortex of perpetual tease-and-disappoint, and that I had to break ties.

As a 23 year old in AAA, he's currently putting up 237/318/421. Now, some of this is poor luck: his BABIP is right around .280, and surely that will go up. But he's also got 22 strikeouts in 84 plate appearances, and just 8 walks. I suppose that's what is spooking me.

Small sample size is a harlot, but there is a larger narrative I'm seeing, a track record of perpetual underachievement. What do I see in Alvarez? As a ceiling, I see a young Troy Glaus, but remember: at Pedro's age, Glaus was somewhere between a SS and a 3B, and that athleticism served him well as he bulked up and aged. Pedro is starting off as somewhere between a 3B and 1B, and one who has continual questions and issues with conditioning.

Also: Pedro the Lion turns into Jars of Clay when facing LH pitching: 190/227/238. Last year, cumulatively, against lefties: 267/320/394, and that is WITH a .393 BABIP against lefties.

Is Keith Law right? Pedro has big time power, obviously, and when he's on a hot streak, he looks like Mark Reynolds 2.0. Is that what the current best case scenario is for him? Or are there reasons to withhold such judgment?

Poll

What is the best comp for Pedro Alvarez's MLB production and career arc?

16%

Troy Glaus

29 votes

9%

Andy Marte

17 votes

10%

Mark Reynolds

18 votes

15%

Jim Thome

27 votes

7%

Alex Gordon

13 votes

8%

Carlos Lee

16 votes

25%

Aramis Ramirez

46 votes

6%

Other (list below)

12 votes

178 votes | Poll has closed

Here's is my present, personal top 100 . . . systematically, I just ranked the prospects in the order in which I would covet them in my own system. Two things will push a guy up for me: ceiling, and readiness to contribute. So, although Matthew Moore has a higher ceiling than Wade Davis, I still greatly prefer Davis, as he's ready drop in as a #3 right now. Probably not too many outrageous rankings, though there are some guys I'm more bullish on than the norm (Alcides Escobar, Jacob Turner, Brett Jackson, Reese Havens) and some guys that I'm less bullish on (Michael Stanton, Fernando Martinez, Daniel Hudson, Yonder Alonso).

I'm intending this not as an authority or anything, but because I've enjoyed looking at others' lists, and it's a good way to settle into discovering what I actually do value in prospects, and to hold myself accountable (when I mock someone's ranking in two years, they can just come back to this post and mock my ranking of x).

Continue reading this post »

I'm in a pretty active, fun 30 team sim league; we just completed a five round amateur draft of guys from the 2009 draft and IFAs (not including Aroldis, who signed too late). Each team has a 50 player roster cap, with 25 of those having to have a ZiPS projection (the roster cap is why a number of teams passed in the 5th round); draft picks can be traded, and undrafted prospects can be signed during the season.

I'm personally always interested in seeing the results of these drafts . . . it's an interesting window into how players are actually being valued.

 

Round 1

1. Cardinals: STEPHEN STRASBURG, RHP. NATIONALS.
2. Diamondbacks: DONOVAN TATE, OF. PADRES.
3. Yankees (via Marlins): DUSTIN ACKLEY, OF. MARINERS
4. Astros: ZACK WHEELER, RHP, GIANTS
5. Dodgers: TYLER MATZEK, LHP, ROCKIES
6. Diamondbacks (via Royals): JACOB TURNER, RHP, TIGERS
7. White Sox: GRANT GREEN, SS, ATHLETICS
8. Tigers: AARON CROW, RHP, ROYALS
9. Rays: SHELBY MILLER, RHP, CARDINALS
10. Diamondbacks (via Rangers): MIGUEL SANO, SS, TWINS
11. Braves: MIKE LEAKE, RHP, REDS
12. Giants (Via Athletics): JIOVANI MIER ,SS, ATHLETICS
13. Giants (via Mets): JOSE IGLESIAS, SS, REDSOX
14. Reds: JARED MITCHELL, OF, WHITESOX
15. Athletics (via Giants,via Orioles): MIKE MINOR, LHP, BRAVES
16. Brewers (via Indians, Diamondbacks): KYLE GIBSON, RHP TWINS
17. Blue Jays: BOBBY BOCHERING, 3B DIAMONDBACKS
18. Twins (via Nationals): MIKE TROUT, OF ANGELS
19. Yankees (via Angels): ALEX WHITE, RHP INDIANS
20. Diamondbacks (via Brewers): ANTHONY SANCHEZ, C PIRATES
21. Cardinals (via Nationals, Mariners, Royals): BRETT JACKSON, CF, CUBS
22. Rockies: TANNER SCHEPPERS, RHP, RANGERS
23. Giants(via Phillies, Pirates): WIL MYERS, C ROYALS
24. Marlins (via Yankees): MAX STASSI, C, ATHLETICS
25. Cubs: CHAD JAMES, LHP, MARLINS
26. Giants (via Phillies, Cardinals): TIM WHEELER, OF, ROCKIES
27. Giants: DREW STOREN, CL, NATIONALS
28. Indians (via Red Sox): MATTHEW HOBGOOD, RHP, ORIOLES
29. Cardinals (via Giants, Padres, Phillies): AARON MILLER, SP, DODGERS
30. Twins: ERIC ARNETT, RHP BREWERS

Continue reading this post »

The write-up is over here.

The list:

1. Aaron Hicks, of, Beloit (Twins)
2. Dee Gordon, ss, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
3. Josh Vitters, 3b, Peoria (Cubs)
4. Brett Lawrie, 2b, Wisconsin (Brewers)
5. Mike Montgomery, lhp, Burlington (Royals)
6. Casey Crosby, lhp, West Michigan (Tigers)
7. Simon Castro, rhp, Fort Wayne (Padres)
8. Jaff Decker, of, Fort Wayne (Padres)
9. Cody Scarpetta, rhp, Wisconsin (Brewers)
10. Ethan Martin, rhp, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
11. Tim Melville, rhp, Burlington (Royals)
12. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Burlington (Royals)
13. A.J. Pollock, of, South Bend (Diamondbacks)
14. Wily Peralta, rhp, Wisconsin (Brewers)
15. James Darnell, 3b, Fort Wayne (Padres)
16. Chris Archer, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)
17. Kyle Russell, of, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
18. Grant Desme, of, Kane County (Athletics)
19. Pedro Figueroa, lhp, Kane County (Athletics)
20. Chris Carpenter, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)

Some stuff here to talk about. Simon Castro is ranked ahead of Jaff Decker, and Cody Scarpetta ahead of Ethan Martin. Hosmer falls past Montgomery and Melville in his own organization.

Now that we've seen a chunk of the season, it might be fun to speculate on the top 20 to 30 prospects in a league. I did this list in about a half-hour, so I'm certain there are some oversights. I probably value ceiling twice as much as current production, and weigh scouting reports heavier than stats. I suppose I'm presenting the list less to try to be right than to make a forum for focused discussion on these young A ball guys. Looking through the league, it's stunning how strong the pitching is, and how few impact position prospects remain in the league, which may give reason to temper excitement over strong pitching numbers that exceed scouting reports -- it might be the competition.

1. Matthew Moore
2. Martin Perez
3. Christian Friedrich
4. Tim Beckham
5. Jordan Lyles
6. Wilmer Flores
7. Derek Norris
8. Casey Kelly
9. Daniel Hudson
10. Jason Knapp
11. Randall Delgado (w/ bullet)
12. Jeurys Familia (w/ bullet)
13. Nick Hagadone
14. Kyle Skipworth
15. Trevor May
16. Nick Barnese
17. Tony Sanchez 
18. Zach Collier 
19. Manuel Banuelos
20. Oscar Tejeda
21. Brett Devall
22. Jefry Marte
23. Anthony Rizzo
24. Neil Ramirez
25. Wilmer Font
26. Kyle Allen
27. Ross Seaton
28. Travis D'Arnaud
29. Rudy Owens
30. Abner Abreu
31. Craig Kimbrel
32. Robert Carson
33. Starling Marte (w/ bullet)
34. Delta Cleary
35. Robbie Grossman

Revised: I added in a couple of guys I overlooked: Friedrich, May, Sanchez, and then added in my two favored honorable mentions (Cleary, Grossman).

Julio Teheran just debuted a couple of days ago in the Sally; I'd slot him between Knapp and Delgado.

Poll

Who is the top prospect in the Sally League?

12%

Tim Beckham

25 votes

9%

Matthew Moore

18 votes

26%

Martin Perez

52 votes

8%

Wilmer Flores

16 votes

11%

Jordan Lyles

22 votes

8%

Derek Norris

16 votes

4%

Jason Knapp

8 votes

8%

Casey Kelly

17 votes

3%

Daniel Hudson

6 votes

5%

Randall Delgado

11 votes

4%

other

9 votes

200 votes | Poll has closed

I remember last year I had the poor sense to post my own top 32 prospects list, which was riddled w/ blindspots, oversights, and bad calls (no Stanton, C. Santana, Smoak, Hanson, etc). I have come here not to praise my list, but to bury it.

Rather, remembering that list triggered me reading the comment thread, and the most controversial thing at the time was that I ranked Chris Carter over Lars Anderson as a prospect -- I largely felt BABIP was masking their similarities as hitters, and that Carter's 80 power tool put him on a different level than Anderson as a potential major leaguer (though I admitted that Carter struck me as a bigger flameout risk). Lars was pretty universally considered a better prospect at the time, as I was aware, but I wanted to make a stand on Carter (and a few other guys, like Wilson Ramos, Nick Weglarz and [gulp] Jordan Walden).

Lars has been getting some bad scout mojo lately, while Carter is putting up pretty gaudy numbers (though it is HIS luck that seems skewed upward so far this year) and seems to be getting the Ks a little more under control.

According to minorleaguesplits, their neutralized lines (taking home park and luck into account) should be

Lars Anderson            266 / 355 / 406

Chris Carter                 269 / 379 / 484

Anderson had the better pedigree, and a (superficially, I think) better statistical record coming into this year, and was the seemingly consensus choice for top first baseman prospect.

Has Carter passed him?

An earlier post had most of the first round from our league's draft. We just finished the second round, and so for shits and giggles and procrastination from writing a dissertation, here is the look at our two rounds. It's a DMB league with 50 team rosters. All signed amateur players of the last year (through draft and international free agency) are eligible.

1. Marlins (via Cardinals) - Junichi Tazawa
2. Angels - Eric Hosmer
3. Cardinals (via Diamondbacks)- Pedro Alvarez
4. Pirates (via Phillies) - Buster Posey
5. Rangers - Justin Smoak
6. Blue Jays - Brian Matusz
7. Yankees (via Marlins) - Timothy Beckham
8. Reds - Brett Wallace
9. White Sox (via Marlins, Mets) (Relos from Red Sox) - Gordon Beckham
10. Tigers - Aaron Hicks
11. Cardinals (via Marlins, Astros) - Yonder Alonso
12. White Sox (Relo from Padres) - Dayan Viciedo
13. Dodgers (Relo from Rays) - Michael Inoa
14. Nationals - Ethan Martin
15. Braves - David Cooper
16. Indians - Jemile Weeks
17. Phillies (via Pirates) - Kyle Skipworth
18. Cardinals (via Rays (Relo from White Sox)) - Tim Melville
19. Royals-Andrew Cashner
20. Red Sox (Relo from Dodgers) - Michael Montgomery
21. White Sox (via Marlins, Milwaukee) - Jaff Decker
22. Cubs- Brett Lawrie
23. Giants (via Orioles)- Jason Castro
24. Padres (Relo from Mets) - Christian Friedrich
25. Rays (viaCardinals (via Marlins (via Mariners))) - Casey Kelly
26. Athletics - Ryan Perry
27. Yankees (via Rays (via Cardinals (via Rockies))) - Jake Odorizzi
28. Rays (via Yankees) - Shooter Hunt
29. Twins - Ryan Westmoreland
30. Phillies (via Orioles (via Giants)) - Zach Collier

1. Cardinals (via Marlins (via Cardinals)) - Rashun Dixon
2. Angels - Daniel Schlereth
3. Diamondbacks - Anthony Hewitt
4. Orioles (via Phillies) - Ike Davis
5. Rangers - Joseph Weiland
6. Blue Jays - Brad Holt
7. Diamondbacks (via Cardinals (via Marlins)) - Reese Havens
8. Reds- Trevor Harden
9. Mets - Lonnie Chisenhall
10. Tigers - Conor Gillaspie
11. Astros - Allan Dykstra
12. White Sox - Joshua Lindblom
13. Dodgers - Craig Kimbrel
14. Nationals- Anthony Gose
15. Braves - Brett DeVall
16. Braves (via Indians) - Wade Miley
17. White Sox (via Marlins, Pirates) - Jordan Danks
18. Cardinals (via Rays) - Hak-ju Lee
19. Royals - Carlos Gutierrez
20. Mets (via Red Sox) - Adys Portillo
21. Indians (via Cardinals (via Brewers)) - Ryan Flaherty
22. Cubs - Brad Hand
23. Yankess (via Orioles) - Will Smith
24. Padres (via Cardinals (via Padres))- Dennis Raben
25. Cardinals (via Mariners)- Jason Knapp
26. Athletics- Tyson Ross
27. Cardinals (via Rockies)- Rafael Rodriguez
28. Cardinals (via Marlins (via Yankees))- Yorman Rodriguez
29. Twins- James Darnell
30. Cardinals (via Giants)- Kyle Lobstein

 

I'm in my second year in a DMB keeper league with salaries and minor league systems. The draft lasts just 5 rounds, and basically everyone is eligible to be drafted except players still in high school and international free agents who haven't been playing in a system for at least a year (so, Inoa and Flores and Teheran are not eligible for our draft, but Strasburg is, and Alvarez/Smoak/Matusz were already drafted).

I think it may have actually taken 6 months for the draft to occur, so there are some picks that seem odd now, such as Holland and Carlos Santana falling as far as they did, but this was mostly due to a month or so lag in the draft. 

Anyway, I'm always curious to see how things go in fantasy drafts, which is one of the best ways of gauging perceived value.

Round 1

1 Pittsburgh - Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS, Tampa Bay Rays
2 Texas - Buster Posey, C, Florida St, SF Giants
3 Baltimore - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

4 Colorado - Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
5 Philadelphia - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami University
6 Philadelphia - Kyle Skipworth C, Patriot HS

7 Pittsburgh - Jhoulyls Chacin, P, Rockies Org.
8 Houston - Nick Blackburn, SP, Twins Org.
9 Minnesota - Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers Org

10 Atlanta - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals Org
11 Washington - Jason Castro, C, Stanford U
12 Toronto - Jason Donald, SS, Phillies Org

13 Baltimore - Daryl Thompson, SP, Reds Org
14 Oakland - Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners org.
15 Colorado - Jesus Montero, C, Yankees Organization

16 Chicago (N) - Christian Friedrich, SP, Eastern Kentucky, Rockies org
17 Colorado - Ethan Martin, SP, Dodgers Org
18 Cleveland - Aaron Hicks, OF, Wilson HS, Twins Org

19 Detroit - Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood, Brewers Org
20 Texas - Todd Frazier, SS, Reds Org
21 Minnesota - Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins Org

22 Kansas City - Luke Hughes, 3b, Twins Org
23 Texas - Jess Todd, SP, Cardinals Org
24 Colorado - Henry Rodriguez, SP, Oakland Org

25 Arizona - Brandon Hicks, SS, Braves Org
26 San Francisco - Alex White, RHP, NC
27 Anaheim - Kyle Gibson, SP, U. of Missouri

28 Cincinnati - Engel Beltre, OF, Rangers Org
29 Houston - Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Nationals Org
30 Chicago (A) - Fautino De Los Santos, P, White Sox Org.

Supplemental 1st round

1.A Toronto - David Huff, SP, Indians Org
1.B Philly - Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox Org
1.C Houston - Logan Morrison, 1B, FLO

1.D Colorado - Gerrit Cole, SP, Orange Lutheran HS, Yankees Org
1.E San Diego - David "Reese" Havens, SS, Mets Org
1.F Chicago Cubs - Sean Doolittle, 1b, A's Org

1.G Arizona - Anonio Bastardo, SP, Phil's Org
1.H Texas - Jake Arrieta ,SP, Orioles Org
1.I Florida - David Robertson, RP, Yankees Org

1.K New York Yankees - Kelvin De la cruz, SP, Indians Org
1.L Baltimore - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State, Pirates Org
1.M Arizona - Lou Marson, C, Phillies Org

1.N Texas - David Cooper - 1B, Toronto Blue Jays org
1.O Florida - Jared Burton, RP, Reds Org
1.P Baltimore - Shooter Hunt, SP, Tulane, Twins org

1.Q Arizona - Grant Green, SS, USC
1.R Florida - Neftali Soto, 3B, Reds Org

2nd round

1 Boston - Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves Org.
2 Kansas City - Brad Holt, RHP, Mets Org.
3 St Louis - Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest


4 Toronto - Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals Org.
5 Philadelphia - Jonathon Niese, LHP, Mets Org
6 Washington - Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Coconino HS

7 Pittsburgh - Emilio Bonifacio, 2b, Nationals Org.
8 Houston - Armando Galarraga, RHP, Tigers Org.
9 Colorado - Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS, Royals Org

10 Atlanta - David Hernandez, P, Orlioles Org
11 New York (N) - Edward Cegarra, RHP, Royals Org
12 Seattle - Josh Donaldson, C, A's Org

13 Chicago (A) - Ryan Perry, P, U. of Arizona
14 Oakland - Carlos Rosa, SP, Royals Org
15 San Diego - Casey Kelly, SS - Sarasota HS (FL)


16 Chicago (N) - Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers Org
17 Los Angeles - Chris Hernandez, LHP, Miami
18 Cleveland - Andrew Cashner, rhp, Texas Christian

19 Detroit - Connor Gillaspie, 3b, Wichita St U
20 Milwaukee - Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Indians org
21 Arizona - Vin Mazzaro, P, Athletics Org

22 Tampa Bay - Mike Aviles, SS, Royals Org.
23 Texas - Joshua Fields, RHP, Seattle Mariners
24 Minnesota - Jose Ceda, P, Cubs Org

25 Florida - Oscar Tejeda, SS, Red Sox
26 San Francisco - Zach Collier, OF, Phillies Org
27 Anaheim - Anthony Hewitt, SS, Phillies Org

28 Cincinnati - Chris (Vernon) Carter, 1B, Oakland A's
29 New York (A) - Hector Rondon, RHP, Indians Org
30 Baltimore - Cody Satterwhite, SP, Tigers Org

Round 3

1 Boston - Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS, Nationals Org
2 Kansas City - Jacob Odorizzi, RHP, Highland HS (IL)
3 St Louis - Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Diamondbacks Org

4 Toronto - Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics Org
5 Philadelphia - Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox Org
6 Washington - Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Twins Org

7 Pittsburgh - Pablo Sandoval, C/1B, Giants Org.
8 Houston - Jorge Campillo, SP, Cardinals Org.
9 Colorado - Greg Halman, OF, Mariners Org.

10 Atlanta - Ryan Jackson, SS Miami University
11 New York (N) - Ryan Flaherty, SS, Cubs Org
12 Seattle - Felipe Paulino, RHP, Astros Org

13 Chicago (A) - Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine
14 Oakland - Matthew Buschmann, SP, Padres org
15 San Diego - Mike Montgomery, LHP, Hart HS, Royals Org

16 Chicago (N) - Scott Campbell, 2B, Blue Jays Org
17 Los Angeles - Blake Dean, OF, LSU Tigers
18 Cleveland - Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Twins Org

19 Detroit - Eddie Kunz, P, Mets Org.
20 Milwaukee - Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals Org
21 Arizona - Brad Bergeson, RHP, Orioles Org

22 Tampa Bay - Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels Org
23 Texas - Kyle McClellan, RP, Cardinals Org
24 Minnesota - Ryan Tucker, P, Marlins Org

25 Florida - Nick Evans, 1B, Mets org.
26 San Francisco - Derek Holland, SP, Rangers Org.
27 Anaheim - Carlos Santana, C, Indians org

28 Cincinnati - Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins
29 New York (A) - Matthew Joyce, OF, Tigers org
30 Baltimore - Brett Hunter, SP, Pepperdine/A's

Round 4

1 Seattle - Nick Barnese, RHP, TB org
2 Houston - Zach McAllister, SP, NYY
3 St Louis - Evan Frederickson, LHP, Brewers Org

4 Toronto - Pat Venditte, P, Yankees Organization
5 Philadelphia - Daniel Murphy, UT, Mets Org
6 Detroit - Chris Dickerson, LF, Reds Org.

7 Seattle - Wilmer Font, RHP, Rangers org
8 Houston - Ben Francisco, OF, Indians org
9 Pittsburgh - Neil Ramirez, P, Rangers Org.

10 Philadelphia - Tyler Flowers, C, Braves Org
11 Kansas City - Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals Org
12 Houston - Caleb Gindl, OF, Brewers org.

13 Seattle - James Darnell, 3B, Padres org
14 Oakland - Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels org.
15 Toronto - Shelby Ford, 2B, Pirates Org

16 Chicago (N) - Michael Taylor, OF, Phillies org
17 Baltimore - Andrew Oliver, SP, Oklahoma St.
18 San Francisco - Josh Lindblom, SP, Dodgers Org

19 Seattle - Adam Moore, C, Sea org
20 Milwaukee - Jordan Lyles, SP, Astros org
21 Kansas City - Destin Hood, OF, St Pauls Episcopal HS (AL), Nationals Org.

22 Cincinnati - Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners Org.
23 Baltimore - Jordy Mercer, ss, Oklahoma St., Pirates Org
24 Cincinatti - Daryl Jones, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

25 Cincinnati - Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, Royals Org
26 San Francisco - Brett DeVall, LHP, Braves org.
27 Philadelphia - Carlos Rivero, SS, Indians Org

28 Seattle - Cale Iorg, SS, Tigers org
29 Seattle - Justin Maxwell, OF, Nationals org
30 Houston - Alfredo Aceves, SP, Yankees Org

5.01 Boston - Jeff Locke, LHP, Braves Org.
5.02 Houston - Jesse Carlson, RP, TO
5.03 St Louis - Wade Miley, LHP, Diamondbacks Org.

5.04 Toronto - Ryan Strieby, 1B, Tigers Org
5.05 Philadelphia - Juan Ramirez, RHP, Mariners Org
5.06 Detroit - Brandon Douglas, SS, Tigers Org.

5.07 Baltimore - SKIP
5.08 Houston - Sharon Martis, SP, Nationals Org
5.09 Colorado - Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt

5.10 Cincinnati - Marcus Lemon, SS, Rangers org
5.11 Seattle - Michael Olt, SS, UConn
5.12 Baltimore - SKIP

5.13 Los Angeles - Scott Woodward, 3B, Coastal Carolina
5.14 Oakland - David Freese, 3B, Cardinals org.
5.15 Minnesota - Jose Martinez, OF, white sox Org

5.16 Chicago (N) - Brad Mills, LHP, Blue Jays org
5.17 New York (N) - Jason Motte, RP, STL org
5.18 Cleveland

5.19 Cincinnati - Martin Perez, SP, Rangers org
5.20 Milwaukee - John Raynor, OF, Marlins org
5.21 Arizona - Craig Italiano, SP, Athletics org

5.22 Seattle - Robbie Shields, SS, FLA Southern
5.23 Minnesota - Dennis Raben, OF Seattle Org
5.24 Cincinnati - Matt Moore, SP, Rays

5.25 Cincinnati - Justin Jackson, SS, Blue Jays
5.26 San Francisco - Ross Seaton, RHP, HOU Org
5.27 Philadelphia - Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor

5.28 Cincinnati - Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies Org
5.29 Cincinnati - Nick Hagadone, SP, Red Sox Org
5.30 Oakland - Mike McKenry, C, Rockies org

1) Matt Wieters (Mauer w/ power)
2) David Price (tho part of me sees a LH Andy Benes)
3) Dexter Fowler (complete package: for some reason, I see Robin Yount when he shifted to CF, but with more range)
4) Colby Rasmus (not worried, somewhere b/w Jim Edmonds and Steve Finley)
5) Jason Heyward (could be a monster)
6) Neftali Feliz (worst case scenario is Joel Zumaya, best case is something like Lincecum)
7) Rick Porcello (polish and power)
8) Cameron Maybin (power potential, but I don't see a 300 hitter)
9) Pedro Alvarez (if he stays at third, Aramis Ramirez with better plate discipline)
10) Chris Tillman (damn you Bavasi)
11) Chris Carter (that's right--his batting average on balls in play was unlucky to start the year; he should be at around his 290-300 usual ba; he's a 270 hitter in the majors, with huge power)
12) Engel Beltre (all about the upside)
13) Trevor Cahill (a Brandon Webb who doesn't kick it up to Cy Young levels)
14) Mike Moustakas (believe in the tools)
15) Travis Snider (all bat; Brian Giles 2.0?)
16) Matt LaPorta (all bat; Richie Sexson 2.0?)
17) Madison Bumgarner (pass)
18) Gordon Beckham (I'm getting Longoria, Tulowitzki vibes)
19) Tim Alderson (pass)
20) Derek Holland (the kool aid tastes great!)
21) Jesus Montero (only 20% chance of staying at catcher, but still looks like a specimen regardless)
22) Jeremy Hellickson (10% of becoming Oswalt, but still a likely #2)
23) Jordan Walden (ugliest guy on the list, but classic power package)
24) Andrew McCutchen (I just don't think he'll put it all together; I see Corey Patterson with a better eye)
25) Frederick Freeman (more kool aid)
26) Brandon Wood (if Rob Deer played 3rd base)
27) Brett Anderson (classic 2/3 starter, just enough oomph to not have to be crafty)
28) Tim Beckham (tool shed, will likely have a long apprenticeship)
29) Logan Morrison (mix between Youkilis and Overbay? or more power?)
30) Nick Weglarz (the performance isn't quite there, but next year he taps the huge power to go with the great plate discipline)
31) Lars Anderson (overrated due to organization and Lancaster, but still an everyday first baseman)
32) Wilson Ramos (my own mancrush koolaid; ballpark and BABIP have artificially skewered his numbers downward, though those numbers are starting to look pretty decent on their own; strong athlete, I think he's an all-star catcher: 280/350/450 line with GG defense, tho it may be for somewhere else)

So, we're over halfway through the 2008, and after thumbing through John's book while giving old Mr. Brown a pinch, I was wondering how people utilize the book.

Other than bathroom material, I mostly use it as a big database throughout the season that I turn to when I come across a prospect with an interesting stat line or recent performance and I want a kind of bird's-eye view of him.  I think that's what the real strength of the book is, you get John's own impressions, some background on the guy usually, and maybe a sentence or two on their tools or stuff.

I guess what I find least useful, or what I utilize least, are John's guesses as to how this or that guy is going to develop. I guess I find that somewhat interesting, but I never act on it (in my leagues), especially since half the pitcher forecasts are the "we'll have to see how he does at higher levels" variety.

Those of you in keeper leagues: are there any prospects you've jumped on based on John's write-up or recommendation?

I remember going after Tommy Mendoza, Jon Jay and Scott Sizemore based on John's recommendations. Since then I've developed my own means of identifying lower level guys and have relied much less on a single-year's performance, or John's recs (which are what led me to the above guys).

I suppose another part is that I don't usually read the book straight through BEFORE the season.  I'll check on some favorite prospects right away, but I usually wait until in season. Because:

1) I like to see what John has to say about someone whose performance or stat line has caught my eye.  Since John is usually non-aggressive and pretty risk-averse on really jumping on dark horse prospects, I usually see his commentaries on guys as a nice, middle-voice sort of common sense view of guys: this guy is an athlete, this guy sits in the high 80s, this guy has a long swing, etc. Very rarely do you see John really push a guy very few others are pushing, like Goldstein did with, say, Neftali Feliz, or Baseball America did with Nick Blackburn. I feel John almost never gives me the jump on this or that guy, but he does provide a sober voice to counter other folks' enthusiasms.

2) Also, while on the toilet, during the season, I'll come across a write up by John on a guy that is intriguing (usually concerning some lower-level athletic player) and then I'll go to MILB or wherever and check out their stat line, or look closer at their stat line.  This year, I've moved towards Michael Tarsi, the big lefty in the Twins org, off of this method -- he has a superficially poor ERA in the MWL, but his FIP and components suggest a better prospect than first glance provides.

So, I'm saying, I pretty much get 90% of my use and pleasure from John's book DURING the season, and not beforehand. Sometimes I'll also dip into old ones and see if I can find common denominators on sleeper guys who became exciting prospects, or guys that became busts.

These two tendencies of mine have moved me much more in the direction of following scouting reports than following single year stat lines, and it has directed me towards watching certain stats categories for development or regression.

I wonder how many folks are similar, or how many have their own unique way(s) of reading or using John's book.

Who knows, it might even help John get to know his readers better.

Two guys from the Twins.

First is Wilson Ramos, whom some of us were very high on coming into this year as he has great tools and athleticism, hit very well as a young player in the MWL, and is supposed to have the defensive chops to stay at catcher.

His season thus far in the FSL: 253/307/392.  Pretty ugly. 

But! His line in his home park: 213/272/309.  His line on the road: 287/337/465. 

His road numbers are I think what most people were expecting to see this year.  So, am I just cherry picking?  I'm not sure.

Looking at the league's home/road splits, you'll see that Ramos' team, the Ft. Myers Miracles, have an OPS of 617 at home and 703 on the road. (Oddly enough, the difference is less pronounced for their pitchers who give up a 646 OPS at home and 674 on the road, the difference being, like for the hitters, almost exclusively in the slugging dept).

He really struggled in April, with a 609 OPS, put up 780 in May with almost all of that in the slugging dept (505), and 706 OPS in June with almost all of that in OBP (365). My hope is that in July and August he puts his skill set back together and maybe even ends up with year end rates that approach his road OPS.

The thing that makes me think that might NOT happen is this: his OPS is 801 versus starters but 591 versus relievers.  Either there are some mighty tough relievers in the FSL, or Ramos is getting tired at the end of games: his BABIP vs starters is 346 and 253 vs relievers.  I think this also points to decreases in bat and foot speed as the game progresses.

My optimistic guess is that there is room here for a rebound, that we weren't mistaken about his skill set and acumen but that two obstacles (his home park and his fatigue) are depressing his production.  Of course, major league caliber players conquer those obstacles, and that's why I'm interested in seeing his performance over the rest of this season. I don't think everything hinges on the 2nd half, but if he DOES start putting things together, then I think he's demonstrated that difficult extra quality of being able to make adjustments that separate the successful from the merely talented.

The second guy I'm interested in is more under-the-radar than even Ramos: Michael Tarsi, the huge, 6'8" lefty pitcher also in the Twins organization. 21 years old in the Midwest League, and with an ugly ERA for that league: 5.48. But, like David Hernandez of the Orioles before this year, I think the ERA belies the interesting peripherals and profile.

So far, 83 k's and 23 walks in 95 innings, and with a 1.82 ground to air out ratio. The bad news: 12 homers, and a .316 average against.

He is supposed to work his fastball around 90, and is much tougher on lefties than righties.

Last year, he had a great first year in the Appy league: 59/13/0 k/bb/hr ratio in 52 innings. Also had a .238 batting average against. And a 2.22 ERA.

Other than the homers, the difference in the ERA b/w the two years is the BAA. The big story there might well be the BABIP: this year it is an ungodly .370.

His ratios otherwise are good to okay: 8.43 k/9; 2.33 bb/9; 1.22 hr/9, and a lot of that seems to be due to his home park 932 OPS against at home versus 714 on the road.

I'm curious about these home/road splits w/ Ramos and Tarsi. In Beloit this year, the hitters have a 90 point BETTER OPS at home than on the road, and a 315 BABIP at home vs 282 on the road. The pitchers are also better at home than on the road, by 60 points OPS, and give up a 297 BABIP at home and 309 on the road.

So the home park at Beloit is a hitter's park for the hitters and pitcher's park for the pitchers. 

I'm kind of tired and could be messing this all up.

 

 

Easy enough. Just guys in the minors are eligible, this is the squad I'd want in my organization; I tend to upside and risk over surety.

 

C: Matt Weiters

1B: Matt LaPorta

2B: Chris Valaika

3B: Pedro Alvarez

SS: Hector Gomez

LF: Jason Heyward

CF: Peter Bourjos

RF: Mike Moustakas

DH: Travis Snider

 

SP: David Price

SP: Jeremy Hellickson

SP: Jordan Walden

SP: Jake McGee

SP: David Hernandez

CL: Neftali Feliz

 

Middle infield is a little rough, but I think Valaika could be Michael Young, and I like Gomez's upside.  Went ahead and moved Moustakas' arm and athleticism in right so he can just concentrate on mashing. I was half tempted to put McCutchen or Rasmus or Fowler or Gorkys in centerfield, but I really love Bourjos' defense and his baserunning, and when thinking about fielding an actual team, I'm willing to punt some offensive upside for those other qualities. And I wanted to give a nod to his season, and to Valaika and David Hernandez, two other under the radar guys that I'm psyched about.

So, coming into this year, he was thought of as your prototypical C+/C level guy--a 6th round pick out of Creighton in 2006, he mashed at Lancaster at 330/423/579. Nice numbers, but his age, experience and the especially the league/park gave every reason to be skeptical. But:

This year, in AA, he's put up a ridiculous 349/488/508 line as a 24 year old. Are we looking at Youkilis 2.0 here? He's big: 6'4", 225. He bats lefty, but is also killing lefties at 396/508/646.

His line against righties? Here: 321/476/423.

His plate control and ability to get on base seem completely legit.  So the question is whether he's a power hitter like he is against lefties, or if he's just a good average/great walks guy, like he is against righties.  If his real power is anything like he showed last year or is showing against lefties, that translates into a really crush-worthy hitter.  Even if he's the batter he is this year against righties, he's basically the wet dream #2 hitter.

He's hitting much better at home than on the road, but he's still a good hitter on the road.

He's played mostly RF, and some LF.  Any reports on his fielding?

Is he a straight B type guy now?  He has to be at least a B- if his performance stays anywhere near where he's at now, and if it does stay where it's at, he could be up in the show this year.

Interesting prospect.

I was really looking forward to Wily Mo doing an Around the Cape of Cuddles or whatever for each of the positions, but he's been busy going to yard sales with John's wife, I guess.  Anyway, I'm procrastinating research work so I thought I'd do an updated look at the upper parts of Wily Mo's list:

His Top 100 guys

Daric Barton, OAK : 211/330/317 in 49 MLB games.

Joey Votto, CIN : 273/339/533 in 47 MLB games.

...

Lars Anderson, BOS : 277/383/484 in 41 A+ games (Cal)

Chris Marrero, WAS : 238/332/419 in 47 A+ games (Car)

Chris Davis, TEX : 333/376/618 in 46 AA games; now at AAA

...

Andrew Lambo, LA : 268/325/447 in 48 A games (MWL)

Nick Weglarz, CLE : 272/430/437 in 45 A+ games (Car)

Jordan Brown, CLE : 297/352/415 in 31 AAA games (INT)

Chris Carter II, OAK : 212/322/458 in 49 A+ games (Cal)

 

Other candidates (quickly tiered):

 

Kyle Blanks, SD: 292/392/404 in 47 AA games (Tex)

...

Matt Sweeney, ANA

Sean Doolittle, OAK: 335/425/627 in 49 A+ games (CAL)

Chris Carter I, BOS : 305/357/487 in 50 AAA games (INT)

Juan Miranda, NYY: 271/405/421 in 32 AAA games (INT)

...

Cody Johnson, ATL: 230/298/431 in 48 A games (SAL)

Anthony Rizzo, BOS: 373/402/446 in 21 A games (SAL) (diagnosed w/ lymphoma)

Brandon Snyder, BAL: 269/314/425 in 45 A+ games (CAR)

Freddie Freeman, ATL: 287/327/484 in 48 A games (SAL)

Yohermyn Chavez, TOR: 224/277/348 in 44 A games (MWL)

 

Jeff Larish, DET: 274/369/589 in 52 AAA games (INT)

 

So, the big risers in value for me are Chris Davis, Sean Doolittle, and Jeff Larish; I think each takes a bump up in the prospect strata.  Doolittle probably a couple bumps as he's now a top 50 prospect, I think. Votto looks like the real deal and I would guess he's lining himself up for Paul Konerko's career.

I think Weglarz is the sleeper as power is supposed to be his big tool.  He's showing himself to be an OBP machine and if the power turns on like it should then we're looking at a wet dream number three hitter.

There were more guys on Wily Mo's list but I can only procrastinate for so long.

I'd recommend adding Jovan Rosa in the Cubs org as a first base sleeper; he's played some first, some third, and is hitting 312/393/471 as a 20 year old in the MWL.

 

 

So, after he was drafted, Rowell hit rookie ball pitching really well and was a super hot prospect -- I think John gave him a B+ and he looked to be maybe the best high school hitter in his class.  Last year in A ball he hit a so-so 273/335/426 and it seems everyone has forgotten about him since then.  He's still huge and still at third base and he's hitting 304/365/429 in hi-A in the Carolina league.  What I think people forget is how freaking young he still is as his birth date is 9/10/88. That is, he'll play all of this year, his third year as a pro, as a teenager.

By comparison, Beau Mills is two years older and is hitting 233/375/388 in the same league. Cody Johnson is one month older and playing one level lower in the Sally league and is hitting 233/313/411. Michael Burgess is basically the same age and is hitting 207/292/446 in the Sally league. It's early in the season and I expect at least Mills and Burgess to bounce back, but I think it's useful to see that guys in his age group (Johnson and Burgess) aren't just struggling, but also struggling one whole level lower.

I think Rowell's age and great first half-season are masking what is a subtly exciting development curve.  My guess is that he'll spend the whole season in hi-A ball, maybe showing a little more power and a little less average than he is now.  Next year, though, he'll be more ready than any hitter in his age group to make the leap to AA and consolidate his skills, tools and approach, the way Dexter Fowler appears to be doing so now, except the fact that Rowell next year in AA will be a year and a half younger than Fowler is now; even if say he struggles a bit next year (which I'm not expecting) and spends all of 09 in AA and starts off in AA in '10, moves to AAA in '11, and makes it to the majors in 2012, he'd be playing all of '12 as a 23 year old, and that'd be IF it takes him '09/'10/'11 to pass through AA and AAA.

 

 

Matt Cusick, 2b, Astros.

The next Ian Kinsler? Cusick was drafted last year out of USC; his 306/422/446 in the New York Penn League.  This year, he is crushing the ball in the Sally League: 405/464/716. He was a hitter in college, but it seemed that there were questions because his tools aren't off the charts; from what I've gathered, loosely, he is a decent enough athlete to stay at 2nd. I would guess he gets bumped up to Hi-A if he keeps this up; if he continues to hit after the jump, I think he immediately pops onto the radar as a 2nd base prospect.  Right now, he's a definite sleeper.

David Hernandez, SP, Orioles.

Coming into this year, this was a guy I and some others on this site identified as a sleeper; if I remember correctly, we chided John for giving him a C grade, as his peripherals, especially his k/9, pointed towards outstanding stuff the last two years.  This year in AA, he seems to be putting it together: 37 k's in 25 innings, with a 2.52 ERA.  His k/bb ratio is 37/14, and he has given up three homers in 25 innings.  I'm not sure he can keep up that Bugs Bunny-esque k rate, but his track record suggests he's someone who can put up 9+ strikeouts per nine innings, at least in the minors.

Jeff Locke, SP, Braves.

A guy who got more attention coming into this year than Cusick and Hernandez, Locke's early starts have him sporting an ugly 5.63 ERA so far in 24 Sally league innings: but look at his peripherals: a 22/5 k/bb rate, and ZERO homers. Those early, ugly starts will be put in perspective soon, I bet, as his runs scored come back to match the rest of his periphs.  I really think this guy is ready to make a jump as a top 50 prospect this year: great size, nice pedigree (2nd round pick), great organization, and a terrific track record so far.

Allen Craig, 3b, Cardinals.

The next Kevin Kouzmanoff? Hasn't had the injury problems Kouz had in the minors, but he seems to profile as a similar type hitter: really solid average and pop with just barely enough defense to stick at third. An 8th round pick in 2006, he hammered Hi-A pitching last year in the tough FSL league with a 312/370/530 line, and then made the late season jump to AA, putting up a 1.070 OPS in seven games.  He got out of the gate pretty slowly this year, but seems to be coming around, hitting .357 in his last 10 games and going 253/343/391.  I'd be shocked if he doesn't approximate his FSL line in AA by the end of the year.

Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels.

Like Locke, a pretty popular sleeper pick coming into this year; I've stated on this site before that I don't see much separation between Bourjos and Gorkys Hernandez as prospects. I thought he'd show more power (he's very toolsy), but I didn't anticipate the speed he's shown this year. So far in the Hi-A Cal league he's put up a nice leadoff line: 310/372/366 with 17 steals (and just one CS) in 18 games.  He's also been described as Gary Pettis 2.0 defensively in CF; if he develops any power he becomes a really, really exciting prospect, but even if he doesn't he still looks like he could become a Gold Glove centerfielder with an above average OBP and lots of steals.

Ben Snyder, SP, Giants.

I know very little about this guy other than his size (6'2", 224) & stat line: 1.23 era and 23/4 k/bb ratio in 29 innings and 1 homer allowed in hi A. He went 16-5 with a 2.09 era last year in lo A, 145/32 k/bb rate in 151 innings.

Steve Garrison, SP, Padres.

Surprised when he made BA's SD top 10, as he doesn't have hot stuff, but his transition to AA has been superb: 1.59 era with a 13/5 k/bb ratio and no homers in 17 innings. The really curious thing is that he's only given up 9 hits in 17 innings, and just 2 hits in his last twelve innings.  He can't keep that up, obviously, but I wonder what it is he does to keep hits down: he gave up just 32 hits in 42 Cal league innings last year with a 28/6 k/bb rate.

 

Two different types of guys, but I would guess at the same level of prospect value. And both with strange first names.

Mills is looking like he's limited to 1B, but he has been described as having plus-plus power, and looks to be on track to probably being a contributor to the major league club starting in 09.

Fowler has more room between where he is and where he can be; his numbers slipped last year, but he was coming alive when he got hurt, and he seems to be developing plate discipline.  His frame suggests plenty of power, but it has been in evidence yet.

Who will have the better career?

Poll

Who will be better?

38%

Dexter Fowler

35 votes

61%

Beau Mills

55 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

So, Baseball America recently ranked him the #3 guy in the Twins system, and John Manuel claimed to have considered him seriously for #1, and that he believed Ramos to be one the of top 5 catching prospects in the minors, and that several Twins people referred to him as 'untouchable.'

Compelling stuff.  On the other hand, according to John Sickels here and Kevin Goldstein at BP, Ramos is either rumor, ghost or figment of the imagination, as I haven't read a syllable about him from these two sources -- it appears he didn't even make John's book.

In 73 games in the Midwest League, Ramos hit .291/.345/.438 in 73 games, an OPS of 783 in a league that averaged a 696 OPS and on a team that had a 672 OPS. He did this as a 19 year old at a premium position, and the BA writeup mentions him as a possible 5-tool catcher.

Last year, he hit .286/.339/.435 as an 18 year old in rookie ball, putting up a 774 OPS in a league that averaged 664, and on a team that averaged 673.

Scouting report from BA: "Ramos blends catch-and-throw talent and offensive upside in a manner rare among current minor leaguers. He has excellent strength, helping produce above-average bat speed and power to all fields. A solid-average runner for now, Ramos rounds out his tools with an accurate, above-average arm and the hands to be a sound receiver. He threw out 41 percent of basestealers in 2007."

John Manuel, in the chat: "I think the scouting report on Ramos says it all; he's all tooled up, young, can catch-and-throw and has offensive upside. He's one of the top 5 guys in the minors for me and has a chance to be an all-star. He was considered strongly for the No. 1 spot; when you have people in the organization calling him "untouchable," you have to listen, and at least two scouts we talked to in the Midwest League called him Beloit's top prospect."

Later: "I think the thought is, the Twins probably believe Ramos is in the top 3 catchers in the minors and would have to be overwhelmed to deal him."

So, you have one publication touting him as possibly one of the three or five best prospects at a premium position, and then you have Sickels and Goldstein, who are seemingly unawares of the guy.

Intriguing!

I'd picked him up in my DMB league a month or so before the BA list came out, based on his age, position, stats and a comment in one of the BA chats that league scouts thought Ramos a better all-around prospect than Conger, though Conger had the stronger bat.

In another chat, Jim Callis mentions Ramos as someone who could've been the number one Twins prospect, so it may not just be a case of Manuel having a boner for a guy.

Should a collective boner be growing for this guy?  Why haven't Sickels or Goldstein mentioned him?

Bryan Smith at BP lists him as a breakout for 08 guy, and writes:

"A raw Venezuelan catcher, the Twins planned on keeping Ramos in extended spring training before moving onto the Appalachian short-season league. However, an injury to the starting catcher in Beloit coupled with an impressive performance in that extended spring work led to an early June assignment to full-season ball. Ramos was brilliant in his full-season debut, hitting two home runs in just his fifth game at the level. The Twins like Ramos' ability behind the plate, where his strong arm led to an impressive 40.9 caught stealing percentage. At the plate, Ramos' plate discipline--only 19 walks in 318 PA--shows his lack of refinement, but his power numbers reflect that there's some pop in his bat. Ramos was hurt in August, but he continued to get at-bats in the Twins instructional league. While hellish hitter's environments in Fort Myers and the Florida State League delay a 2008 breakout, Ramos' ability will be widely recognized soon enough."

Poll

How does Wilson Ramos grade out?

2%

C

1 votes

26%

B+

10 votes

5%

A

2 votes

26%

B

10 votes

10%

A-

4 votes

13%

B-

5 votes

15%

C+

6 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed

So, it's a fun system to talk about since no one agrees who their best prospect is.  Here's my top 12, followed by the expert chorus. Perhaps a community top 12 for the Twins would be fun?

GoGoTabata Rankings

1.    Jeff Manship B
2.    Ben Revere B
3.    Anthony Swarzak B
4.    Tyler Robertson B-
5.    Trevor Plouffe B-
6.    Chris Parmelee B-
7.    David Bromberg B-
8.    Brian Duensing B-
9.    Wilson Ramos C+
10.    Joe Benson C+
11.    Oswaldo Sosa C+
12.    Nick Blackburn C+

Sickels

1.    Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade B+
2.    Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade B
3.    Ben Revere, OF, Grade B
4.    Eduardo Morlan, RHP, Grade B
5.    Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade B
6.    Trevor Plouffe, SS, Grade B-
7.    Brian Duensing, LHP, Grade B-
8.    Oswaldo Sosa, RHP, Grade B-
9.    Jose Mijares, LHP, Grade C+
10.    Mike McCardell, RHP, Grade C+

Goldstein

Four-Star Prospects

Ben Revere, CF
Three-Star Prospects

2. Anthony Swarzak, RHP
   
3. Jeff Manship, RHP
   
4. Eduardo Morlan, RHP
   
5. Tyler Robertson, LHP
   
6. Nick Blackburn, RHP
   
7. Brian Duensing, LHP
   
8. Trevor Plouffe, SS
   

Two-Star Prospects

9. Chris Parmelee, OF
   
10. David Bromberg, RHP
    
11. Joe Benson, OF

Baseball America

1 - Nick Blackburn
2 - Joe Benson
3 - Wilson Ramos
4 - Tyler Robertson
5 - Anthony Swarzak
6 - Ben Revere
7 - Jason Pridie
8 - Brian Duensing
9 - Jeff Manship
10 - Trevor Plouffe

Poll

Who is the best Twins prospect?

5%

Nick Blackburn

9 votes

25%

Anthony Swarzak

43 votes

8%

Jeff Manship

15 votes

4%

Chris Parmelee

8 votes

28%

Tyler Robertson

49 votes

1%

Joe Benson

3 votes

16%

Ben Revere

28 votes

0%

Brian Duensing

1 votes

5%

Trevor Plouffe

9 votes

2%

other (list below)

5 votes

170 votes | Poll has closed

I think Kuo is getting written off way too quickly by ye olde conventional wisdom, as I think he's exactly the sort of guy who delivers on his early promise (like Bedard), but a few years later than expected (like Bedard).

Last year, b/w the NL and the PCL (not a huge difference, eh?), he threw just 50 innings, with a 55/22 k/bb rate, and five homers. The year before, b/w the same two stops, he threw 112 innings with an 134/55 k/bb rate, and and gave up 8 homers.  

He had a 7.42 era in his 30 mlb innings last year, but his fielding-independent ERA was 4.26.

The big thing with this guy is clearly his health, but a couple of scratches at the numbers reveals a guy who could burst 'out of nowhere' to become a dominant lefty starter in his age 27-28 seasons.

Poll

Whose career will Kuo's resemble (regardless of handedness)?

4%

AJ Burnett

10 votes

12%

Oliver Perez

26 votes

2%

Chris Carpenter

5 votes

20%

Hideo Nomo (click here if you is racist's!)

41 votes

24%

Matt Mantei

49 votes

21%

Scott Williamson

44 votes

1%

Cole Hamels

3 votes

1%

Brad Lidge

4 votes

4%

Erik Bedard

10 votes

5%

Kelvim Escobar

12 votes

204 votes | Poll has closed

I enjoyed seeing people's jockeying of the 'next wave' pitchers like Jordan Walden, Neftali Feliz, Matt Latos, et al.  I was hoping to maybe do something similar with some hitters who may be bubbling and ready to burst up into 4/5 star territory in 08. Maybe in this poll I'll limit the candidates to slugger types, as opposed to up-the-middle speed types.  

So, most of these guys are folks who put themselves on the radar this last year, or slipped (like Rowell and Parmelee) from elite to interesting in the conventional wisdom; some of these will Dopirak out, some will just chug along, and some will burst out from their chrysalis into full Pearceness or maybe even Braundom.

Let's see who we think will be next year's hotshot.

Also, throw out candidates for a possible round two.

Poll

Which young slugger will be next year's sexy butterfly?

15%

Chris Carter, 1b, A's

33 votes

26%

Bill Rowell, 3b, Orioles

55 votes

13%

Chris Davis, 3b, Rangers

28 votes

1%

Daniel Dorn, OF, Reds

4 votes

2%

Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners

6 votes

3%

Kyle Blanks, 1b, Padres

8 votes

12%

Nicholas Weglarz, OF, Indians

26 votes

9%

Chris Parmelee, OF, Twins

19 votes

3%

Ryan Royster, OF, Rays

7 votes

11%

Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox

24 votes

210 votes | Poll has closed

Since a number of these guys won't likely make the top 100, at least not for awhile, I think it might be interesting to see who the kings and princes of the not-yet elite are; maybe quite a few of these will sneak on in the latter half of a top 100.  Generally, I find these guys more fascinating to rank and talk about than the super hyped dudes.  So, I'm taking the top performers from my previous post and putting them together with other guys of a similar stripe, to see who you all think is the most likely to make the leap to eliteness & sexiness next year. If nothing else, this might be a fun sub-category to explore in terms of who should get pushed into the Community Prospect polling.

Who else should be included in the discussion?

Poll

Who is most likely to become the super sexy breakout pitching prospect of 08?

8%

Chorye Spoone, Orioles

18 votes

1%

Chris Mason, Rays

3 votes

23%

Jordan Walden, Angels

48 votes

10%

Matt Latos, Padres

21 votes

11%

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

24 votes

10%

Henry Alberto Rodriguez, A's

21 votes

6%

Juan Ramirez, Mariners

14 votes

15%

Jeremy Hellickson, Rays

32 votes

4%

Omar Poveda, Rangers

10 votes

5%

Daniel Cortes, Royals

11 votes

202 votes | Poll has closed

I've been collecting a list of not-yet (or never-to-be) elite pitching prospects to pursue in my leagues.  Here is a partial list, as I rank them.

1.    Eric Hurley (JS B+ #2 Rangers)
2.    Jordan Walden (KG 4-star #3 Angels; JS B #4)
3.    Chorye Spoon (KG 4-star #2 Orioles;)
4.    Jeremy Hellickson (KG 3 star #9 Rays)
5.    Daniel Cortes (JS B #4 Royals; KG 3-star #3 Royals)
6.    Jeff Manship (JS B #5 Twins; KG 3-star #3 Twins)
7.    Henry Alberto Rodriguez (KG 3-star, #4 A's)
8.    Drew Miller (BA #5 Padres)
9.    Brandon Hynick (BA #8 Rockies)
10.    Andrew Bailey (KG 3-star, #5 A's)
11.    Neftali Feliz (JS B- #12 Rangers)
12.    David Bromberg (KG 2-star #10 Twins; JS C+ #17 Twins)
13.    Steve Garrison (BA #6 Padres)
14.    Fabio Castillo
15.    Rich Thompson

16.     Wilber Bucardo
    
17.     Larry Suarez
    
18.     Chris Huseby
    
19.     Daniel Bard
    
20.     Pedro Strop

I've included not-quite-up-to-date info on how Sickels, Goldstein and Baseball America rank them.  I generally weigh Goldstein and BA higher than John because they often rank via scouting reports and info I don't have access to, while John often seems to go off the numbers and intuition; his intuition is obviously more nuanced than mine, but I also have access to the stats and like to play my hunches.

Anyway, how would you correct these rankings?  Who jumps out to you as a breakout candidate?

I really see Walden, Manship, Miller & Rodriguez as candidates to jump into say Wade Davis/McGee/Fautino territory next year.

What other under the radar dudes are you tracking?

Poll

Who is most likely to break out next year as an elite prospect?

2%

David Bromberg

3 votes

27%

Jordan Walden

41 votes

1%

Brandon Hynick

2 votes

11%

Daniel Cortes

17 votes

7%

Chorye Spoon

11 votes

1%

Drew Miller

2 votes

9%

Henry Alberto Rodriguez

14 votes

14%

Neftali Feliz

22 votes

6%

Jeff Manship

10 votes

17%

Jeremy Hellickson

26 votes

148 votes | Poll has closed

1.      Chase Headley, 3b
   
2.     Matt Antonelli, 2b
   
3.     Matt Latos, rhp
   
4.     Wade LeBlanc, lhp
   
5.     Drew Miller, rhp
   
6.     Steve Garrison, lhp
   
7.     Will Inman, rhp
   
8.     Cedric Hunter, of
   
9.     Nick Schmidt, lhp
   
10.     Kyle Blanks, 1b

Interesting to see Garrison that high on a BA list, as he's no tools goof.  Drew Miller looks like a candidate to bust out next year as a big time pitching prospect. This is quite suddenly a really interesting system.

Well, Brett Myers among others have been charged with such conduct.

Which leads me to this. What current players do you think beat their wives?

I personally am starting to think Miguel Cabrera does. Surly locker room behavior. Sudden wisps of a goatee.  Occasionally wears white tank-top undershirts.

Sure, some people say it might just be roid rage, but could it be spousal abuse? Maybe she doesn't cook enough and it has made him abusive?

Anyone else you think beats their wife?

Poll

Does Miguel Cabrera beat his wife?

37%

Nope.

36 votes

62%

Yep.

60 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

So, I've been digging the 2010 lineups, and would like to send a candy-coated chill pill to the geniuses who say "uhhh, you don't think the Yankees are gonna make trades b/w now and then." Yeah, no shizzle, Sherlock.  But the whole fun of it is to see what sorts of 2010 rosters current organizations have contained within their present talent pool. It was very illustrative, for instance, to see just how weak the 2010 A's are looking, at this moment, if we just consider what talent is showing itself as present (at this moment).  

Anyway, I thought it might be fun to put together a squad of players who I think will be contributors in 2010 but who may or may not have strong prospect reps right now. You know, the future Jason Bays, Brian Giles, Scott Hatteburgs, Mark Buehrles, Paul Loducas, Ryan Theriots, Chris Duncans, Marcus Thamses.

Basically, it's a list of guys I don't expect to see on teams' 2010 lineups here in the diaries that I think will be seen to be quite a bit more valuable contributors three years from now.

C Vincent Rottino, Brewers
1B JR House, Orioles or Paul McAnulty, Pads
2B Michael Hollimon, Tigers
SS Brian Bixler, Pirates
3B Jack Hannahan, A's
OF Jason Pridie, Rays
OF Chris Pettit, Angels
OF Joe Dillon, Brewers
UT Joe Inglett, Indians

SP JP Howell, Rays
SP Oswaldo Sosa, Twins
SP Chris Sampson, Astros
SP Dave Bush, Brewers
SP Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks

RP Winston Abreu, Nats
RP Craig Breslow, Red Sox
RP Felix Romero, Orioles

So, before this season a Diamond Mind keeper league that I'm in, held a draft for 06 draftees and foreign free agents.  Five rounds. Picks can be traded, so you'll see the same teams a bunch.  I'm basically posting this because I'm interested to see how prospects are valued in actual exchange mode, like in a draft, and I thought this might be a good way of glancing at how prospects' perceived value has shifted over the season.

The draft:

1.- SF - Andrew Miller - SP

2. - SF - Daisuke Matsuzaka - SP
   
3. - MN - Tim Lincecum - SP
   
4. - MN - Evan Longoria - 3B
   
5. - ARI - Luke Hochevar - SP
   
6. - CIN - Clayton Kershaw - SP
   
7. - ARI - Travis Snider - OF
   
8. - SF - Daniel Bard - SP
   
9. - PHI - Billy Rowell - 3B
   
10. - MIL - Akinori Iwamura - 3B
    
11. - TOR - Joba Chamberlin - SP
    
12. - ARI - Dellin Betances - SP
    
13. - ARI - Brad Lincoln - SP
    
14. - SF - Pedro Feliciano - RP
    
15. - MN - Brandon Morrow - SP
    
16. - HOU - Tyler Colvin - OF
    
17. - CIN - Hank Conger - C
    
18. - FLO - Kei Igawa - SP
    
19. - TEX - Chris Parmelee - OF
    
20. - SEA - Takashi Saito - CL
    
21. - ARI - Kyle Drabek - SP
    
22. - SEA - Pedro Beato - SP
    
23. - MN - Greg Reynolds - SP
    
24. - BAL - Kasey Kiker - SP
    
25. - KC - Max Scherzer - SP
    
26. - MN - Jeremy Jeffress - SP
    
27. - ANA - Brett Anderson - SP
    
28. - MN - Lars Anderson - 1B
    
29. - NYA - Christopher Marrero - OF
    
30. - ANA - Brett Sinkbeil - SP

Round 2

1. New York (NL)- Young-Il Jung
   
2. Tampa Bay- Angel Villalona
   
3. New York (NL)- Angel Beltre
   
4. Houston- Chris Davis
   
5. Chicago (NL)- Matt Sulentic
   
6. Chicago (NL)- Cedric Hunter
   
7. Chicago (NL)- Tony Butler
   
8. New York (AL)- Wes Hodges
   
9. Philadelphia- David Huff
   
10. Oakland- Bryce Cox
    
11. New York (NL)- Justin Masterson
    
12. Chicago (NL)- Cole Gillespie
    
13. Chicago (NL)- Max Sapp
    
14. Boston- Jason Place
    
15. Chicago (NL)- Matt Antonelli
    
16. Washington- Kyle McCulloch
    
17. Oakland- Adam Ottavino
    
18. St. Louis- Yohannis Perez
    
19. Texas - Colton Willems
    
20. Tampa Bay - Carlos Truinfel
    
21. Cincinatti - Bryan Avery Morris
    
22. Chicago (NL) - Emmanuel Burris
    
23. Boston - Jon Jay
    
24. Cincinatti - Kris Johnson
    
25. New York (NL) - Trevor Cahill
    
26. Chicago (AL) - Drew Stubbs
    
27. Minnesota - Jermaine Mitchell
    
28. New York (NL) - Adrian Cardenas
    
29. Seattle - Juan Miranda
    
30. Kansas City - Yuslan Herrera

Round 3

1. Mets - Matt Sweeney
   
2. Orioles - Preston Mattingly
   
3. Mariners - Cyle Hankerd
   
4. Astros - Ian Kennedy
   
5. Tigers - Mark Hamilton
   
6. Reds - Jordan Walden
   
7. Mets - Jeff Manship
   
8. Dbacks - Esmailyn Gonzalez
   
9. Phils - Cody Johnson
   
10. Brewers - Jeff Sarmizdija
    
11. BlueJays - Brooks Brown
    
12. Dodgers - Kyler Burke
    
13. Rockies - Chris Coghlan
    
14. Marlins - Kyle Snyder
    
15. Mets - Kevin Mulvey
    
16. Nats - Cory Rasmus
    
17. Cards - Chris Perez
    
18. Dodgers - Steve Evarts
    
19. Rangers - Josh Butler
    
20. Mariners - Chris Valaika
    
21. Red Sox - Chris Huseby
    
22. Marlins - Austin Bibens-Dirx
    
23. Royals - Max McBride
    
24. Dbacks - Balbino Fuenmayor
    
25. Indians - Caleb Clay
    
26. ChiSox - Jason Taylor
    
27. Angels - Chad Huffman
    
28. Mets - Daniel Dorn
    
29. Yanks - Chad Tracy
    
30. Dbacks - Marcus Lemon

Round 4

1. Royals - Joe Smith
   
2. Drays - Chris Tillman
   
3. Drays - Tom Hickman
   
4. Astros - David Christensen
   
5. Tigers - Eddie Degerman
   
6. Cardinals - Ryan Adams
   
7. Brewers - Mike Felix
   
8. Cubs - Drew Rundle
   
9. Phil - Ronnie Bourquin
   
10. BlueJays - Jeff Locke
    
11. Brewers - Wade Leblanc
    
12. Dodgers - Brad Furnish
    
13. Rockies - Steven Wright
    
14. Cubs - Garrett Olson
    
15. Tigers - Don Czyz
    
16. Nats - Colin Curtis
    
17. A's - Sean Watson
    
18. Cards - Josh Rodriguez
    
19. Rangers - Chase Fontaine
    
20. Mariners - Chad Rogers
    
21. Marlins - Matt Camp
    
22. D-Backs - Tyler Robertson
    
23. Red Sox - Scott Sizemore
    
24. Pirates - Sean Black
    
25. Indians - Brent Brewer
    
26. ChiSox - Joe Benson
    
27. Angels - Sergio Perez
    
28. Twins - Stephen King
    
29. Yanks - Zach Zinicola
    
30. Cubs - Moises Tejada

Round 5 (I ran out of steam here, didn't bother with the team names, and stopped keeping track as soon as I made my pick, which was Tanner)

1. Chad Lee
   
2. Felix Carrasco
   
3. Glenn Gibson
   
4. Drew Carpenter
   
5. Lauren Gagnier
   
6. Brennan Boesch
   
7. Francisco Pena
   
8. Wirfin Obispo
   
9. Dustin Evans
   
10. Craig Baker
    
11. Steven Englund
    
12. Matt Long
    
13. Blake Wood
    
14. David Freese
    
15. Keith Weiser
    
16. Jonah Nickerson
    
17. Whit Robbins
    
18. Aaron Bates
    
19. Alex Cobb
    
20. Brandon Magee
    
21. Clayton Tanner

My team is the Red Sox.  I had no first round pick.  I ended up drafting: Jason Place, Jon Jay, Chris Huseby, Scott Sizemore, and Clayton Tanner.  I felt pretty decent about my draft at the time, especially about getting Huseby that late, but now, a year late, it's a pretty weak haul.  

I think the painful thing is that I was choosing b/w Jason Place and Matt Antonelli for my first (2nd round) pick, but was spooked a bit by Antonelli's lack of power in his short trial run, even though I'd identified and tracked him from the time of the draft as someone I wanted from his scouting reports.  I actually had Antonelli higher on my draft board, but lost my nerve.  The second (2nd round) pick was between Jon Jay and Adrian Cardenas, and I picked wrong again, it seems; looking back at my draft board, I had Cardenas a couple slots above Jay, but let myself talk myself  out of it, especially after reading John's strong opinions and grade for Jay on this site.  Again, I should've gone with my initial instincts and not relied so heavy on the smallish, early sample-size.  I still feel very good about Huseby, long term; he was the person left on the draft board I most wanted, and actually took him this time.

It'll be interesting looking at this draft again a year from now . . .

I've been wanting to put together a list like this far a while; it's basically my working list of the top young prospects.  I'm defining young as 20 or under, so the cut-off birth date for the list is 9/1/86.

I just put this together this evening, so I'm certain there is a myriad of prospects I'm missing.  On 07 draftees, I've worked into the list those players who have made some sort of impact with their performance on me this year.

Suggestions and critiques are very much desired here.  This could be a forum for people to suggest very young, high-ceiling guys from their favorite organization that are still flying under the radar.  I've put a couple of my pet young prospects on here, like Peter Bourjos, Ryan Kalish, Chris Carter, Neftali Feliz and Juan Ramirez.

This is also a pretty idiosyncratic list once you get past the top 20 or so; I like lists that aggressively rank players that haven't yet had a consensus formed on them, so I've done that with people like Hector Gomez, Jordan Schafer, Michael Burgess, Zach Braddock and others.

1.    Justin Upton, CF, ARI, 8/25/87
2.    Jay Bruce, OF, CIN, 4/03/87
3.    Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD, 3/19/88
4.    Chris Marrero, OF, WAS, 7/02/88
5.    Cameron Maybin, CF, DET, 4/04/87
6.    Travis Snider, OF, TOR, 2/02/88
7.    Carlos Triunfel, SS, SEA, 2/27/90
8.    Deolis Guerra, SP, NYM 4/17/89
9.    Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM, 10/10/88
10.    Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS, 9/25/87
11.    Bill Rowell, 3B, BAL, 9/10/88
12.    Carlos Carrasco, SP, PHI, 3/21/87
13.    Jose Tabata, OF, NYY, 8/12/88
14.    Andrew McCutchen, CF, PIT, 10/10/86
15.    Brett Anderson, SP, ARI, 2/01/88
16.    Dellin Betances, SP, NYY, 3/23/88
17.    Hank Conger, C, LAA, 1/29/88
18.    Bryan Anderson, C, STL, 12/16/86
19.    Angel Villalona, 3B, SF, 8/13/90
20.    Adrian Cardenas, 2B, PHI, 10/10/87
21.    Kasey Kiker, SP, TEX, 11/19/87
22.    Michael Burgess, OF, WAS, 10/20/88
23.    Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB, 4/08/87
24.    Hector Gomez, SS, COL, 3/05/88
25.    Jordan Schafer, CF, ATL, 9/04/86
26.    Desmond Jennings, CF, TB, 10/30/86
27.    Gorkys Hernandez, CF, DET, 9/07/87
28.    Chris Parmelee, OF, MIN, 2/24/88
29.    Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX, 8/26/88
30.    Zach Braddock, SP, MIL, 8/23/87
31.    Gerardo Parra, OF, ARI, 5/06/87
32.    Josh Bell, 3B, LAD, 11/13/86
33.    Tyler Robertson, SP, MIN, 12/23/87
34.    Neftali Feliz, P, ATL, 5/02/88
35.    Cedric Hunter, CF, SD, 3/10/88
36.    Chris Carter, 1B, CHW, 12/18/86
37.    Kyle Blanks, 1B, SD, 9/11/86
38.    Nick Noonan, 2B, SF, 5/04/89
39.    Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS, 3/28/88
40.    Trevor Cahill, SP, OAK, 3/11/88
41.    Dan Duffy, P, KC, 12/21/88
42.    Austin Jackson, OF, NYY, 2/01/87
43.    Peter Bourjos, CF, LAA, 3/31/87
44.    Cole Rohrbrough, SP, ATL, 5/23/87
45.    Juan Ramirez, SP, SEA, 8/16/88
46.    Ben Revere, CF, MIN, 5/03/88
47.    John Whittleman, 3B, TEX, 2/11/87
48.    Max Sapp, C, HOU, 2/21/88
49.    Carlos Rivero, SS, CLE, 5/20/88
50.    Young Il-Jung, SP, LAA, 11/16/88

Honorable mentions:

Clayton Tanner, SP, SF, 12/05/87
Aaron Poreda, P, CHW, 10/10/86
Tony Butler, SP, SEA, 11/18/87
Chris Huseby, SP, CHC, 1/11/88
Balbino Fuenmayor, 3B, TOR, 11/26/89
Dan Cortes, P, KC, 3/04/87
Matt Sulentic, OF, OAK, 10/06/87
Chris Tillman, SP, SEA, 4/05/88
D'Arby Myers, OF, PHI, 12/09/88
Jason Place, OF, BOS, 5/8/88
Francisco Pena, C, NYM, 10/12/89