SB Nation User Blog: gogotabata

BA's MWL Top 20

gogotabata — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 18:40:13 -0000

The write-up is over here.

The list:

1. Aaron Hicks, of, Beloit (Twins)
2. Dee Gordon, ss, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
3. Josh Vitters, 3b, Peoria (Cubs)
4. Brett Lawrie, 2b, Wisconsin (Brewers)
5. Mike Montgomery, lhp, Burlington (Royals)
6. Casey Crosby, lhp, West Michigan (Tigers)
7. Simon Castro, rhp, Fort Wayne (Padres)
8. Jaff Decker, of, Fort Wayne (Padres)
9. Cody Scarpetta, rhp, Wisconsin (Brewers)
10. Ethan Martin, rhp, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
11. Tim Melville, rhp, Burlington (Royals)
12. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Burlington (Royals)
13. A.J. Pollock, of, South Bend (Diamondbacks)
14. Wily Peralta, rhp, Wisconsin (Brewers)
15. James Darnell, 3b, Fort Wayne (Padres)
16. Chris Archer, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)
17. Kyle Russell, of, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
18. Grant Desme, of, Kane County (Athletics)
19. Pedro Figueroa, lhp, Kane County (Athletics)
20. Chris Carpenter, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)

Some stuff here to talk about. Simon Castro is ranked ahead of Jaff Decker, and Cody Scarpetta ahead of Ethan Martin. Hosmer falls past Montgomery and Melville in his own organization.

Top 35 Sally League Prospects

gogotabata — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 16:02:19 -0000

Now that we've seen a chunk of the season, it might be fun to speculate on the top 20 to 30 prospects in a league. I did this list in about a half-hour, so I'm certain there are some oversights. I probably value ceiling twice as much as current production, and weigh scouting reports heavier than stats. I suppose I'm presenting the list less to try to be right than to make a forum for focused discussion on these young A ball guys. Looking through the league, it's stunning how strong the pitching is, and how few impact position prospects remain in the league, which may give reason to temper excitement over strong pitching numbers that exceed scouting reports -- it might be the competition.

1. Matthew Moore
2. Martin Perez
3. Christian Friedrich
4. Tim Beckham
5. Jordan Lyles
6. Wilmer Flores
7. Derek Norris
8. Casey Kelly
9. Daniel Hudson
10. Jason Knapp
11. Randall Delgado (w/ bullet)
12. Jeurys Familia (w/ bullet)
13. Nick Hagadone
14. Kyle Skipworth
15. Trevor May
16. Nick Barnese
17. Tony Sanchez
18. Zach Collier
19. Manuel Banuelos
20. Oscar Tejeda
21. Brett Devall
22. Jefry Marte
23. Anthony Rizzo
24. Neil Ramirez
25. Wilmer Font
26. Kyle Allen
27. Ross Seaton
28. Travis D'Arnaud
29. Rudy Owens
30. Abner Abreu
31. Craig Kimbrel
32. Robert Carson
33. Starling Marte (w/ bullet)
34. Delta Cleary
35. Robbie Grossman

Revised: I added in a couple of guys I overlooked: Friedrich, May, Sanchez, and then added in my two favored honorable mentions (Cleary, Grossman).

Julio Teheran just debuted a couple of days ago in the Sally; I'd slot him between Knapp and Delgado.

Poll

Who is the top prospect in the Sally League?

Tim Beckham

25 votes

Matthew Moore

18 votes

Martin Perez

52 votes

Wilmer Flores

16 votes

Jordan Lyles

22 votes

Derek Norris

16 votes

Jason Knapp

8 votes

Casey Kelly

17 votes

Daniel Hudson

6 votes

Randall Delgado

11 votes

other

9 votes

200 votes | Poll has closed

Lars Anderson v. Chris Carter

gogotabata — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 17:27:46 -0000

I remember last year I had the poor sense to post my own top 32 prospects list, which was riddled w/ blindspots, oversights, and bad calls (no Stanton, C. Santana, Smoak, Hanson, etc). I have come here not to praise my list, but to bury it.

Rather, remembering that list triggered me reading the comment thread, and the most controversial thing at the time was that I ranked Chris Carter over Lars Anderson as a prospect -- I largely felt BABIP was masking their similarities as hitters, and that Carter's 80 power tool put him on a different level than Anderson as a potential major leaguer (though I admitted that Carter struck me as a bigger flameout risk). Lars was pretty universally considered a better prospect at the time, as I was aware, but I wanted to make a stand on Carter (and a few other guys, like Wilson Ramos, Nick Weglarz and [gulp] Jordan Walden).

Lars has been getting some bad scout mojo lately, while Carter is putting up pretty gaudy numbers (though it is HIS luck that seems skewed upward so far this year) and seems to be getting the Ks a little more under control.

According to minorleaguesplits, their neutralized lines (taking home park and luck into account) should be

Lars Anderson 266 / 355 / 406

Chris Carter 269 / 379 / 484

Anderson had the better pedigree, and a (superficially, I think) better statistical record coming into this year, and was the seemingly consensus choice for top first baseman prospect.

Has Carter passed him?

2008 Amateur Draft, through two rounds

gogotabata — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 02:02:45 -0000

An earlier post had most of the first round from our league's draft. We just finished the second round, and so for shits and giggles and procrastination from writing a dissertation, here is the look at our two rounds. It's a DMB league with 50 team rosters. All signed amateur players of the last year (through draft and international free agency) are eligible.

1. Marlins (via Cardinals) - Junichi Tazawa
2. Angels - Eric Hosmer
3. Cardinals (via Diamondbacks)- Pedro Alvarez
4. Pirates (via Phillies) - Buster Posey
5. Rangers - Justin Smoak
6. Blue Jays - Brian Matusz
7. Yankees (via Marlins) - Timothy Beckham
8. Reds - Brett Wallace
9. White Sox (via Marlins, Mets) (Relos from Red Sox) - Gordon Beckham
10. Tigers - Aaron Hicks
11. Cardinals (via Marlins, Astros) - Yonder Alonso
12. White Sox (Relo from Padres) - Dayan Viciedo
13. Dodgers (Relo from Rays) - Michael Inoa
14. Nationals - Ethan Martin
15. Braves - David Cooper
16. Indians - Jemile Weeks
17. Phillies (via Pirates) - Kyle Skipworth
18. Cardinals (via Rays (Relo from White Sox)) - Tim Melville
19. Royals-Andrew Cashner
20. Red Sox (Relo from Dodgers) - Michael Montgomery
21. White Sox (via Marlins, Milwaukee) - Jaff Decker
22. Cubs- Brett Lawrie
23. Giants (via Orioles)- Jason Castro
24. Padres (Relo from Mets) - Christian Friedrich
25. Rays (viaCardinals (via Marlins (via Mariners))) - Casey Kelly
26. Athletics - Ryan Perry
27. Yankees (via Rays (via Cardinals (via Rockies))) - Jake Odorizzi
28. Rays (via Yankees) - Shooter Hunt
29. Twins - Ryan Westmoreland
30. Phillies (via Orioles (via Giants)) - Zach Collier

1. Cardinals (via Marlins (via Cardinals)) - Rashun Dixon
2. Angels - Daniel Schlereth
3. Diamondbacks - Anthony Hewitt
4. Orioles (via Phillies) - Ike Davis
5. Rangers - Joseph Weiland
6. Blue Jays - Brad Holt
7. Diamondbacks (via Cardinals (via Marlins)) - Reese Havens
8. Reds- Trevor Harden
9. Mets - Lonnie Chisenhall
10. Tigers - Conor Gillaspie
11. Astros - Allan Dykstra
12. White Sox - Joshua Lindblom
13. Dodgers - Craig Kimbrel
14. Nationals- Anthony Gose
15. Braves - Brett DeVall
16. Braves (via Indians) - Wade Miley
17. White Sox (via Marlins, Pirates) - Jordan Danks
18. Cardinals (via Rays) - Hak-ju Lee
19. Royals - Carlos Gutierrez
20. Mets (via Red Sox) - Adys Portillo
21. Indians (via Cardinals (via Brewers)) - Ryan Flaherty
22. Cubs - Brad Hand
23. Yankess (via Orioles) - Will Smith
24. Padres (via Cardinals (via Padres))- Dennis Raben
25. Cardinals (via Mariners)- Jason Knapp
26. Athletics- Tyson Ross
27. Cardinals (via Rockies)- Rafael Rodriguez
28. Cardinals (via Marlins (via Yankees))- Yorman Rodriguez
29. Twins- James Darnell
30. Cardinals (via Giants)- Kyle Lobstein

DMB keeper league -- draft recap

gogotabata — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 16:25:46 -0000

I'm in my second year in a DMB keeper league with salaries and minor league systems. The draft lasts just 5 rounds, and basically everyone is eligible to be drafted except players still in high school and international free agents who haven't been playing in a system for at least a year (so, Inoa and Flores and Teheran are not eligible for our draft, but Strasburg is, and Alvarez/Smoak/Matusz were already drafted).

I think it may have actually taken 6 months for the draft to occur, so there are some picks that seem odd now, such as Holland and Carlos Santana falling as far as they did, but this was mostly due to a month or so lag in the draft.

Anyway, I'm always curious to see how things go in fantasy drafts, which is one of the best ways of gauging perceived value.

Round 1

1 Pittsburgh - Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS, Tampa Bay Rays
2 Texas - Buster Posey, C, Florida St, SF Giants
3 Baltimore - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

4 Colorado - Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
5 Philadelphia - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami University
6 Philadelphia - Kyle Skipworth C, Patriot HS

7 Pittsburgh - Jhoulyls Chacin, P, Rockies Org.
8 Houston - Nick Blackburn, SP, Twins Org.
9 Minnesota - Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers Org

10 Atlanta - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals Org
11 Washington - Jason Castro, C, Stanford U
12 Toronto - Jason Donald, SS, Phillies Org

13 Baltimore - Daryl Thompson, SP, Reds Org
14 Oakland - Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners org.
15 Colorado - Jesus Montero, C, Yankees Organization

16 Chicago (N) - Christian Friedrich, SP, Eastern Kentucky, Rockies org
17 Colorado - Ethan Martin, SP, Dodgers Org
18 Cleveland - Aaron Hicks, OF, Wilson HS, Twins Org

19 Detroit - Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood, Brewers Org
20 Texas - Todd Frazier, SS, Reds Org
21 Minnesota - Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins Org

22 Kansas City - Luke Hughes, 3b, Twins Org
23 Texas - Jess Todd, SP, Cardinals Org
24 Colorado - Henry Rodriguez, SP, Oakland Org

25 Arizona - Brandon Hicks, SS, Braves Org
26 San Francisco - Alex White, RHP, NC
27 Anaheim - Kyle Gibson, SP, U. of Missouri

28 Cincinnati - Engel Beltre, OF, Rangers Org
29 Houston - Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Nationals Org
30 Chicago (A) - Fautino De Los Santos, P, White Sox Org.

Supplemental 1st round

1.A Toronto - David Huff, SP, Indians Org
1.B Philly - Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox Org
1.C Houston - Logan Morrison, 1B, FLO

1.D Colorado - Gerrit Cole, SP, Orange Lutheran HS, Yankees Org
1.E San Diego - David "Reese" Havens, SS, Mets Org
1.F Chicago Cubs - Sean Doolittle, 1b, A's Org

1.G Arizona - Anonio Bastardo, SP, Phil's Org
1.H Texas - Jake Arrieta ,SP, Orioles Org
1.I Florida - David Robertson, RP, Yankees Org

1.K New York Yankees - Kelvin De la cruz, SP, Indians Org
1.L Baltimore - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State, Pirates Org
1.M Arizona - Lou Marson, C, Phillies Org

1.N Texas - David Cooper - 1B, Toronto Blue Jays org
1.O Florida - Jared Burton, RP, Reds Org
1.P Baltimore - Shooter Hunt, SP, Tulane, Twins org

1.Q Arizona - Grant Green, SS, USC
1.R Florida - Neftali Soto, 3B, Reds Org

2nd round

1 Boston - Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves Org.
2 Kansas City - Brad Holt, RHP, Mets Org.
3 St Louis - Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest

4 Toronto - Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals Org.
5 Philadelphia - Jonathon Niese, LHP, Mets Org
6 Washington - Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Coconino HS

7 Pittsburgh - Emilio Bonifacio, 2b, Nationals Org.
8 Houston - Armando Galarraga, RHP, Tigers Org.
9 Colorado - Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS, Royals Org

10 Atlanta - David Hernandez, P, Orlioles Org
11 New York (N) - Edward Cegarra, RHP, Royals Org
12 Seattle - Josh Donaldson, C, A's Org

13 Chicago (A) - Ryan Perry, P, U. of Arizona
14 Oakland - Carlos Rosa, SP, Royals Org
15 San Diego - Casey Kelly, SS - Sarasota HS (FL)

16 Chicago (N) - Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers Org
17 Los Angeles - Chris Hernandez, LHP, Miami
18 Cleveland - Andrew Cashner, rhp, Texas Christian

19 Detroit - Connor Gillaspie, 3b, Wichita St U
20 Milwaukee - Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Indians org
21 Arizona - Vin Mazzaro, P, Athletics Org

22 Tampa Bay - Mike Aviles, SS, Royals Org.
23 Texas - Joshua Fields, RHP, Seattle Mariners
24 Minnesota - Jose Ceda, P, Cubs Org

25 Florida - Oscar Tejeda, SS, Red Sox
26 San Francisco - Zach Collier, OF, Phillies Org
27 Anaheim - Anthony Hewitt, SS, Phillies Org

28 Cincinnati - Chris (Vernon) Carter, 1B, Oakland A's
29 New York (A) - Hector Rondon, RHP, Indians Org
30 Baltimore - Cody Satterwhite, SP, Tigers Org

Round 3

1 Boston - Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS, Nationals Org
2 Kansas City - Jacob Odorizzi, RHP, Highland HS (IL)
3 St Louis - Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Diamondbacks Org

4 Toronto - Brad Ziegler, RP, Athletics Org
5 Philadelphia - Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox Org
6 Washington - Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Twins Org

7 Pittsburgh - Pablo Sandoval, C/1B, Giants Org.
8 Houston - Jorge Campillo, SP, Cardinals Org.
9 Colorado - Greg Halman, OF, Mariners Org.

10 Atlanta - Ryan Jackson, SS Miami University
11 New York (N) - Ryan Flaherty, SS, Cubs Org
12 Seattle - Felipe Paulino, RHP, Astros Org

13 Chicago (A) - Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine
14 Oakland - Matthew Buschmann, SP, Padres org
15 San Diego - Mike Montgomery, LHP, Hart HS, Royals Org

16 Chicago (N) - Scott Campbell, 2B, Blue Jays Org
17 Los Angeles - Blake Dean, OF, LSU Tigers
18 Cleveland - Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Twins Org

19 Detroit - Eddie Kunz, P, Mets Org.
20 Milwaukee - Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals Org
21 Arizona - Brad Bergeson, RHP, Orioles Org

22 Tampa Bay - Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels Org
23 Texas - Kyle McClellan, RP, Cardinals Org
24 Minnesota - Ryan Tucker, P, Marlins Org

25 Florida - Nick Evans, 1B, Mets org.
26 San Francisco - Derek Holland, SP, Rangers Org.
27 Anaheim - Carlos Santana, C, Indians org

28 Cincinnati - Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins
29 New York (A) - Matthew Joyce, OF, Tigers org
30 Baltimore - Brett Hunter, SP, Pepperdine/A's

Round 4

1 Seattle - Nick Barnese, RHP, TB org
2 Houston - Zach McAllister, SP, NYY
3 St Louis - Evan Frederickson, LHP, Brewers Org

4 Toronto - Pat Venditte, P, Yankees Organization
5 Philadelphia - Daniel Murphy, UT, Mets Org
6 Detroit - Chris Dickerson, LF, Reds Org.

7 Seattle - Wilmer Font, RHP, Rangers org
8 Houston - Ben Francisco, OF, Indians org
9 Pittsburgh - Neil Ramirez, P, Rangers Org.

10 Philadelphia - Tyler Flowers, C, Braves Org
11 Kansas City - Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals Org
12 Houston - Caleb Gindl, OF, Brewers org.

13 Seattle - James Darnell, 3B, Padres org
14 Oakland - Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels org.
15 Toronto - Shelby Ford, 2B, Pirates Org

16 Chicago (N) - Michael Taylor, OF, Phillies org
17 Baltimore - Andrew Oliver, SP, Oklahoma St.
18 San Francisco - Josh Lindblom, SP, Dodgers Org

19 Seattle - Adam Moore, C, Sea org
20 Milwaukee - Jordan Lyles, SP, Astros org
21 Kansas City - Destin Hood, OF, St Pauls Episcopal HS (AL), Nationals Org.

22 Cincinnati - Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners Org.
23 Baltimore - Jordy Mercer, ss, Oklahoma St., Pirates Org
24 Cincinatti - Daryl Jones, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

25 Cincinnati - Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, Royals Org
26 San Francisco - Brett DeVall, LHP, Braves org.
27 Philadelphia - Carlos Rivero, SS, Indians Org

28 Seattle - Cale Iorg, SS, Tigers org
29 Seattle - Justin Maxwell, OF, Nationals org
30 Houston - Alfredo Aceves, SP, Yankees Org

5.01 Boston - Jeff Locke, LHP, Braves Org.
5.02 Houston - Jesse Carlson, RP, TO
5.03 St Louis - Wade Miley, LHP, Diamondbacks Org.

5.04 Toronto - Ryan Strieby, 1B, Tigers Org
5.05 Philadelphia - Juan Ramirez, RHP, Mariners Org
5.06 Detroit - Brandon Douglas, SS, Tigers Org.

5.07 Baltimore - SKIP
5.08 Houston - Sharon Martis, SP, Nationals Org
5.09 Colorado - Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt

5.10 Cincinnati - Marcus Lemon, SS, Rangers org
5.11 Seattle - Michael Olt, SS, UConn
5.12 Baltimore - SKIP

5.13 Los Angeles - Scott Woodward, 3B, Coastal Carolina
5.14 Oakland - David Freese, 3B, Cardinals org.
5.15 Minnesota - Jose Martinez, OF, white sox Org

5.16 Chicago (N) - Brad Mills, LHP, Blue Jays org
5.17 New York (N) - Jason Motte, RP, STL org
5.18 Cleveland

5.19 Cincinnati - Martin Perez, SP, Rangers org
5.20 Milwaukee - John Raynor, OF, Marlins org
5.21 Arizona - Craig Italiano, SP, Athletics org

5.22 Seattle - Robbie Shields, SS, FLA Southern
5.23 Minnesota - Dennis Raben, OF Seattle Org
5.24 Cincinnati - Matt Moore, SP, Rays

5.25 Cincinnati - Justin Jackson, SS, Blue Jays
5.26 San Francisco - Ross Seaton, RHP, HOU Org
5.27 Philadelphia - Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor

5.28 Cincinnati - Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies Org
5.29 Cincinnati - Nick Hagadone, SP, Red Sox Org
5.30 Oakland - Mike McKenry, C, Rockies org

Top 32 prospects

gogotabata — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 11:48:55 -0000

1) Matt Wieters (Mauer w/ power)
2) David Price (tho part of me sees a LH Andy Benes)
3) Dexter Fowler (complete package: for some reason, I see Robin Yount when he shifted to CF, but with more range)
4) Colby Rasmus (not worried, somewhere b/w Jim Edmonds and Steve Finley)
5) Jason Heyward (could be a monster)
6) Neftali Feliz (worst case scenario is Joel Zumaya, best case is something like Lincecum)
7) Rick Porcello (polish and power)
8) Cameron Maybin (power potential, but I don't see a 300 hitter)
9) Pedro Alvarez (if he stays at third, Aramis Ramirez with better plate discipline)
10) Chris Tillman (damn you Bavasi)
11) Chris Carter (that's right--his batting average on balls in play was unlucky to start the year; he should be at around his 290-300 usual ba; he's a 270 hitter in the majors, with huge power)
12) Engel Beltre (all about the upside)
13) Trevor Cahill (a Brandon Webb who doesn't kick it up to Cy Young levels)
14) Mike Moustakas (believe in the tools)
15) Travis Snider (all bat; Brian Giles 2.0?)
16) Matt LaPorta (all bat; Richie Sexson 2.0?)
17) Madison Bumgarner (pass)
18) Gordon Beckham (I'm getting Longoria, Tulowitzki vibes)
19) Tim Alderson (pass)
20) Derek Holland (the kool aid tastes great!)
21) Jesus Montero (only 20% chance of staying at catcher, but still looks like a specimen regardless)
22) Jeremy Hellickson (10% of becoming Oswalt, but still a likely #2)
23) Jordan Walden (ugliest guy on the list, but classic power package)
24) Andrew McCutchen (I just don't think he'll put it all together; I see Corey Patterson with a better eye)
25) Frederick Freeman (more kool aid)
26) Brandon Wood (if Rob Deer played 3rd base)
27) Brett Anderson (classic 2/3 starter, just enough oomph to not have to be crafty)
28) Tim Beckham (tool shed, will likely have a long apprenticeship)
29) Logan Morrison (mix between Youkilis and Overbay? or more power?)
30) Nick Weglarz (the performance isn't quite there, but next year he taps the huge power to go with the great plate discipline)
31) Lars Anderson (overrated due to organization and Lancaster, but still an everyday first baseman)
32) Wilson Ramos (my own mancrush koolaid; ballpark and BABIP have artificially skewered his numbers downward, though those numbers are starting to look pretty decent on their own; strong athlete, I think he's an all-star catcher: 280/350/450 line with GG defense, tho it may be for somewhere else)

How do you use John's book?

gogotabata — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 01:05:17 -0000

So, we're over halfway through the 2008, and after thumbing through John's book while giving old Mr. Brown a pinch, I was wondering how people utilize the book.

Other than bathroom material, I mostly use it as a big database throughout the season that I turn to when I come across a prospect with an interesting stat line or recent performance and I want a kind of bird's-eye view of him. I think that's what the real strength of the book is, you get John's own impressions, some background on the guy usually, and maybe a sentence or two on their tools or stuff.

I guess what I find least useful, or what I utilize least, are John's guesses as to how this or that guy is going to develop. I guess I find that somewhat interesting, but I never act on it (in my leagues), especially since half the pitcher forecasts are the "we'll have to see how he does at higher levels" variety.

Those of you in keeper leagues: are there any prospects you've jumped on based on John's write-up or recommendation?

I remember going after Tommy Mendoza, Jon Jay and Scott Sizemore based on John's recommendations. Since then I've developed my own means of identifying lower level guys and have relied much less on a single-year's performance, or John's recs (which are what led me to the above guys).

I suppose another part is that I don't usually read the book straight through BEFORE the season. I'll check on some favorite prospects right away, but I usually wait until in season. Because:

1) I like to see what John has to say about someone whose performance or stat line has caught my eye. Since John is usually non-aggressive and pretty risk-averse on really jumping on dark horse prospects, I usually see his commentaries on guys as a nice, middle-voice sort of common sense view of guys: this guy is an athlete, this guy sits in the high 80s, this guy has a long swing, etc. Very rarely do you see John really push a guy very few others are pushing, like Goldstein did with, say, Neftali Feliz, or Baseball America did with Nick Blackburn. I feel John almost never gives me the jump on this or that guy, but he does provide a sober voice to counter other folks' enthusiasms.

2) Also, while on the toilet, during the season, I'll come across a write up by John on a guy that is intriguing (usually concerning some lower-level athletic player) and then I'll go to MILB or wherever and check out their stat line, or look closer at their stat line. This year, I've moved towards Michael Tarsi, the big lefty in the Twins org, off of this method -- he has a superficially poor ERA in the MWL, but his FIP and components suggest a better prospect than first glance provides.

So, I'm saying, I pretty much get 90% of my use and pleasure from John's book DURING the season, and not beforehand. Sometimes I'll also dip into old ones and see if I can find common denominators on sleeper guys who became exciting prospects, or guys that became busts.

These two tendencies of mine have moved me much more in the direction of following scouting reports than following single year stat lines, and it has directed me towards watching certain stats categories for development or regression.

I wonder how many folks are similar, or how many have their own unique way(s) of reading or using John's book.

Who knows, it might even help John get to know his readers better.

Guys having better seasons than the stats say

gogotabata — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 01:07:18 -0000

Two guys from the Twins.

First is Wilson Ramos, whom some of us were very high on coming into this year as he has great tools and athleticism, hit very well as a young player in the MWL, and is supposed to have the defensive chops to stay at catcher.

His season thus far in the FSL: 253/307/392. Pretty ugly.

But! His line in his home park: 213/272/309. His line on the road: 287/337/465.

His road numbers are I think what most people were expecting to see this year. So, am I just cherry picking? I'm not sure.

Looking at the league's home/road splits, you'll see that Ramos' team, the Ft. Myers Miracles, have an OPS of 617 at home and 703 on the road. (Oddly enough, the difference is less pronounced for their pitchers who give up a 646 OPS at home and 674 on the road, the difference being, like for the hitters, almost exclusively in the slugging dept).

He really struggled in April, with a 609 OPS, put up 780 in May with almost all of that in the slugging dept (505), and 706 OPS in June with almost all of that in OBP (365). My hope is that in July and August he puts his skill set back together and maybe even ends up with year end rates that approach his road OPS.

The thing that makes me think that might NOT happen is this: his OPS is 801 versus starters but 591 versus relievers. Either there are some mighty tough relievers in the FSL, or Ramos is getting tired at the end of games: his BABIP vs starters is 346 and 253 vs relievers. I think this also points to decreases in bat and foot speed as the game progresses.

My optimistic guess is that there is room here for a rebound, that we weren't mistaken about his skill set and acumen but that two obstacles (his home park and his fatigue) are depressing his production. Of course, major league caliber players conquer those obstacles, and that's why I'm interested in seeing his performance over the rest of this season. I don't think everything hinges on the 2nd half, but if he DOES start putting things together, then I think he's demonstrated that difficult extra quality of being able to make adjustments that separate the successful from the merely talented.

The second guy I'm interested in is more under-the-radar than even Ramos: Michael Tarsi, the huge, 6'8" lefty pitcher also in the Twins organization. 21 years old in the Midwest League, and with an ugly ERA for that league: 5.48. But, like David Hernandez of the Orioles before this year, I think the ERA belies the interesting peripherals and profile.

So far, 83 k's and 23 walks in 95 innings, and with a 1.82 ground to air out ratio. The bad news: 12 homers, and a .316 average against.

He is supposed to work his fastball around 90, and is much tougher on lefties than righties.

Last year, he had a great first year in the Appy league: 59/13/0 k/bb/hr ratio in 52 innings. Also had a .238 batting average against. And a 2.22 ERA.

Other than the homers, the difference in the ERA b/w the two years is the BAA. The big story there might well be the BABIP: this year it is an ungodly .370.

His ratios otherwise are good to okay: 8.43 k/9; 2.33 bb/9; 1.22 hr/9, and a lot of that seems to be due to his home park 932 OPS against at home versus 714 on the road.

I'm curious about these home/road splits w/ Ramos and Tarsi. In Beloit this year, the hitters have a 90 point BETTER OPS at home than on the road, and a 315 BABIP at home vs 282 on the road. The pitchers are also better at home than on the road, by 60 points OPS, and give up a 297 BABIP at home and 309 on the road.

So the home park at Beloit is a hitter's park for the hitters and pitcher's park for the pitchers.

I'm kind of tired and could be messing this all up.

All Prospect Team

gogotabata — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 23:55:04 -0000

Easy enough. Just guys in the minors are eligible, this is the squad I'd want in my organization; I tend to upside and risk over surety.

C: Matt Weiters

1B: Matt LaPorta

2B: Chris Valaika

3B: Pedro Alvarez

SS: Hector Gomez

LF: Jason Heyward

CF: Peter Bourjos

RF: Mike Moustakas

DH: Travis Snider

SP: David Price

SP: Jeremy Hellickson

SP: Jordan Walden

SP: Jake McGee

SP: David Hernandez

CL: Neftali Feliz

Middle infield is a little rough, but I think Valaika could be Michael Young, and I like Gomez's upside. Went ahead and moved Moustakas' arm and athleticism in right so he can just concentrate on mashing. I was half tempted to put McCutchen or Rasmus or Fowler or Gorkys in centerfield, but I really love Bourjos' defense and his baserunning, and when thinking about fielding an actual team, I'm willing to punt some offensive upside for those other qualities. And I wanted to give a nod to his season, and to Valaika and David Hernandez, two other under the radar guys that I'm psyched about.

Zach Daeges

gogotabata — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 23:21:12 -0000

So, coming into this year, he was thought of as your prototypical C+/C level guy--a 6th round pick out of Creighton in 2006, he mashed at Lancaster at 330/423/579. Nice numbers, but his age, experience and the especially the league/park gave every reason to be skeptical. But:

This year, in AA, he's put up a ridiculous 349/488/508 line as a 24 year old. Are we looking at Youkilis 2.0 here? He's big: 6'4", 225. He bats lefty, but is also killing lefties at 396/508/646.

His line against righties? Here: 321/476/423.

His plate control and ability to get on base seem completely legit. So the question is whether he's a power hitter like he is against lefties, or if he's just a good average/great walks guy, like he is against righties. If his real power is anything like he showed last year or is showing against lefties, that translates into a really crush-worthy hitter. Even if he's the batter he is this year against righties, he's basically the wet dream #2 hitter.

He's hitting much better at home than on the road, but he's still a good hitter on the road.

He's played mostly RF, and some LF. Any reports on his fielding?

Is he a straight B type guy now? He has to be at least a B- if his performance stays anywhere near where he's at now, and if it does stay where it's at, he could be up in the show this year.

Interesting prospect.