SB Nation User Blog: gogotabata

Top 32 prospects

gogotabata — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 11:48:55 -0000

1) Matt Wieters (Mauer w/ power)
2) David Price (tho part of me sees a LH Andy Benes)
3) Dexter Fowler (complete package: for some reason, I see Robin Yount when he shifted to CF, but with more range)
4) Colby Rasmus (not worried, somewhere b/w Jim Edmonds and Steve Finley)
5) Jason Heyward (could be a monster)
6) Neftali Feliz (worst case scenario is Joel Zumaya, best case is something like Lincecum)
7) Rick Porcello (polish and power)
8) Cameron Maybin (power potential, but I don't see a 300 hitter)
9) Pedro Alvarez (if he stays at third, Aramis Ramirez with better plate discipline)
10) Chris Tillman (damn you Bavasi)
11) Chris Carter (that's right--his batting average on balls in play was unlucky to start the year; he should be at around his 290-300 usual ba; he's a 270 hitter in the majors, with huge power)
12) Engel Beltre (all about the upside)
13) Trevor Cahill (a Brandon Webb who doesn't kick it up to Cy Young levels)
14) Mike Moustakas (believe in the tools)
15) Travis Snider (all bat; Brian Giles 2.0?)
16) Matt LaPorta (all bat; Richie Sexson 2.0?)
17) Madison Bumgarner (pass)
18) Gordon Beckham (I'm getting Longoria, Tulowitzki vibes)
19) Tim Alderson (pass)
20) Derek Holland (the kool aid tastes great!)
21) Jesus Montero (only 20% chance of staying at catcher, but still looks like a specimen regardless)
22) Jeremy Hellickson (10% of becoming Oswalt, but still a likely #2)
23) Jordan Walden (ugliest guy on the list, but classic power package)
24) Andrew McCutchen (I just don't think he'll put it all together; I see Corey Patterson with a better eye)
25) Frederick Freeman (more kool aid)
26) Brandon Wood (if Rob Deer played 3rd base)
27) Brett Anderson (classic 2/3 starter, just enough oomph to not have to be crafty)
28) Tim Beckham (tool shed, will likely have a long apprenticeship)
29) Logan Morrison (mix between Youkilis and Overbay? or more power?)
30) Nick Weglarz (the performance isn't quite there, but next year he taps the huge power to go with the great plate discipline)
31) Lars Anderson (overrated due to organization and Lancaster, but still an everyday first baseman)
32) Wilson Ramos (my own mancrush koolaid; ballpark and BABIP have artificially skewered his numbers downward, though those numbers are starting to look pretty decent on their own; strong athlete, I think he's an all-star catcher: 280/350/450 line with GG defense, tho it may be for somewhere else)

How do you use John's book?

gogotabata — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 01:05:17 -0000

So, we're over halfway through the 2008, and after thumbing through John's book while giving old Mr. Brown a pinch, I was wondering how people utilize the book.

Other than bathroom material, I mostly use it as a big database throughout the season that I turn to when I come across a prospect with an interesting stat line or recent performance and I want a kind of bird's-eye view of him. I think that's what the real strength of the book is, you get John's own impressions, some background on the guy usually, and maybe a sentence or two on their tools or stuff.

I guess what I find least useful, or what I utilize least, are John's guesses as to how this or that guy is going to develop. I guess I find that somewhat interesting, but I never act on it (in my leagues), especially since half the pitcher forecasts are the "we'll have to see how he does at higher levels" variety.

Those of you in keeper leagues: are there any prospects you've jumped on based on John's write-up or recommendation?

I remember going after Tommy Mendoza, Jon Jay and Scott Sizemore based on John's recommendations. Since then I've developed my own means of identifying lower level guys and have relied much less on a single-year's performance, or John's recs (which are what led me to the above guys).

I suppose another part is that I don't usually read the book straight through BEFORE the season. I'll check on some favorite prospects right away, but I usually wait until in season. Because:

1) I like to see what John has to say about someone whose performance or stat line has caught my eye. Since John is usually non-aggressive and pretty risk-averse on really jumping on dark horse prospects, I usually see his commentaries on guys as a nice, middle-voice sort of common sense view of guys: this guy is an athlete, this guy sits in the high 80s, this guy has a long swing, etc. Very rarely do you see John really push a guy very few others are pushing, like Goldstein did with, say, Neftali Feliz, or Baseball America did with Nick Blackburn. I feel John almost never gives me the jump on this or that guy, but he does provide a sober voice to counter other folks' enthusiasms.

2) Also, while on the toilet, during the season, I'll come across a write up by John on a guy that is intriguing (usually concerning some lower-level athletic player) and then I'll go to MILB or wherever and check out their stat line, or look closer at their stat line. This year, I've moved towards Michael Tarsi, the big lefty in the Twins org, off of this method -- he has a superficially poor ERA in the MWL, but his FIP and components suggest a better prospect than first glance provides.

So, I'm saying, I pretty much get 90% of my use and pleasure from John's book DURING the season, and not beforehand. Sometimes I'll also dip into old ones and see if I can find common denominators on sleeper guys who became exciting prospects, or guys that became busts.

These two tendencies of mine have moved me much more in the direction of following scouting reports than following single year stat lines, and it has directed me towards watching certain stats categories for development or regression.

I wonder how many folks are similar, or how many have their own unique way(s) of reading or using John's book.

Who knows, it might even help John get to know his readers better.

Guys having better seasons than the stats say

gogotabata — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 01:07:18 -0000

Two guys from the Twins.

First is Wilson Ramos, whom some of us were very high on coming into this year as he has great tools and athleticism, hit very well as a young player in the MWL, and is supposed to have the defensive chops to stay at catcher.

His season thus far in the FSL: 253/307/392. Pretty ugly.

But! His line in his home park: 213/272/309. His line on the road: 287/337/465.

His road numbers are I think what most people were expecting to see this year. So, am I just cherry picking? I'm not sure.

Looking at the league's home/road splits, you'll see that Ramos' team, the Ft. Myers Miracles, have an OPS of 617 at home and 703 on the road. (Oddly enough, the difference is less pronounced for their pitchers who give up a 646 OPS at home and 674 on the road, the difference being, like for the hitters, almost exclusively in the slugging dept).

He really struggled in April, with a 609 OPS, put up 780 in May with almost all of that in the slugging dept (505), and 706 OPS in June with almost all of that in OBP (365). My hope is that in July and August he puts his skill set back together and maybe even ends up with year end rates that approach his road OPS.

The thing that makes me think that might NOT happen is this: his OPS is 801 versus starters but 591 versus relievers. Either there are some mighty tough relievers in the FSL, or Ramos is getting tired at the end of games: his BABIP vs starters is 346 and 253 vs relievers. I think this also points to decreases in bat and foot speed as the game progresses.

My optimistic guess is that there is room here for a rebound, that we weren't mistaken about his skill set and acumen but that two obstacles (his home park and his fatigue) are depressing his production. Of course, major league caliber players conquer those obstacles, and that's why I'm interested in seeing his performance over the rest of this season. I don't think everything hinges on the 2nd half, but if he DOES start putting things together, then I think he's demonstrated that difficult extra quality of being able to make adjustments that separate the successful from the merely talented.

The second guy I'm interested in is more under-the-radar than even Ramos: Michael Tarsi, the huge, 6'8" lefty pitcher also in the Twins organization. 21 years old in the Midwest League, and with an ugly ERA for that league: 5.48. But, like David Hernandez of the Orioles before this year, I think the ERA belies the interesting peripherals and profile.

So far, 83 k's and 23 walks in 95 innings, and with a 1.82 ground to air out ratio. The bad news: 12 homers, and a .316 average against.

He is supposed to work his fastball around 90, and is much tougher on lefties than righties.

Last year, he had a great first year in the Appy league: 59/13/0 k/bb/hr ratio in 52 innings. Also had a .238 batting average against. And a 2.22 ERA.

Other than the homers, the difference in the ERA b/w the two years is the BAA. The big story there might well be the BABIP: this year it is an ungodly .370.

His ratios otherwise are good to okay: 8.43 k/9; 2.33 bb/9; 1.22 hr/9, and a lot of that seems to be due to his home park 932 OPS against at home versus 714 on the road.

I'm curious about these home/road splits w/ Ramos and Tarsi. In Beloit this year, the hitters have a 90 point BETTER OPS at home than on the road, and a 315 BABIP at home vs 282 on the road. The pitchers are also better at home than on the road, by 60 points OPS, and give up a 297 BABIP at home and 309 on the road.

So the home park at Beloit is a hitter's park for the hitters and pitcher's park for the pitchers.

I'm kind of tired and could be messing this all up.

All Prospect Team

gogotabata — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 23:55:04 -0000

Easy enough. Just guys in the minors are eligible, this is the squad I'd want in my organization; I tend to upside and risk over surety.

C: Matt Weiters

1B: Matt LaPorta

2B: Chris Valaika

3B: Pedro Alvarez

SS: Hector Gomez

LF: Jason Heyward

CF: Peter Bourjos

RF: Mike Moustakas

DH: Travis Snider

SP: David Price

SP: Jeremy Hellickson

SP: Jordan Walden

SP: Jake McGee

SP: David Hernandez

CL: Neftali Feliz

Middle infield is a little rough, but I think Valaika could be Michael Young, and I like Gomez's upside. Went ahead and moved Moustakas' arm and athleticism in right so he can just concentrate on mashing. I was half tempted to put McCutchen or Rasmus or Fowler or Gorkys in centerfield, but I really love Bourjos' defense and his baserunning, and when thinking about fielding an actual team, I'm willing to punt some offensive upside for those other qualities. And I wanted to give a nod to his season, and to Valaika and David Hernandez, two other under the radar guys that I'm psyched about.

Zach Daeges

gogotabata — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 23:21:12 -0000

So, coming into this year, he was thought of as your prototypical C+/C level guy--a 6th round pick out of Creighton in 2006, he mashed at Lancaster at 330/423/579. Nice numbers, but his age, experience and the especially the league/park gave every reason to be skeptical. But:

This year, in AA, he's put up a ridiculous 349/488/508 line as a 24 year old. Are we looking at Youkilis 2.0 here? He's big: 6'4", 225. He bats lefty, but is also killing lefties at 396/508/646.

His line against righties? Here: 321/476/423.

His plate control and ability to get on base seem completely legit. So the question is whether he's a power hitter like he is against lefties, or if he's just a good average/great walks guy, like he is against righties. If his real power is anything like he showed last year or is showing against lefties, that translates into a really crush-worthy hitter. Even if he's the batter he is this year against righties, he's basically the wet dream #2 hitter.

He's hitting much better at home than on the road, but he's still a good hitter on the road.

He's played mostly RF, and some LF. Any reports on his fielding?

Is he a straight B type guy now? He has to be at least a B- if his performance stays anywhere near where he's at now, and if it does stay where it's at, he could be up in the show this year.

Interesting prospect.

Cape Fear Update: First Base

gogotabata — Tue, 27 May 2008 00:52:52 -0000

I was really looking forward to Wily Mo doing an Around the Cape of Cuddles or whatever for each of the positions, but he's been busy going to yard sales with John's wife, I guess. Anyway, I'm procrastinating research work so I thought I'd do an updated look at the upper parts of Wily Mo's list:

His Top 100 guys

Daric Barton, OAK : 211/330/317 in 49 MLB games.

Joey Votto, CIN : 273/339/533 in 47 MLB games.

...

Lars Anderson, BOS : 277/383/484 in 41 A+ games (Cal)

Chris Marrero, WAS : 238/332/419 in 47 A+ games (Car)

Chris Davis, TEX : 333/376/618 in 46 AA games; now at AAA

...

Andrew Lambo, LA : 268/325/447 in 48 A games (MWL)

Nick Weglarz, CLE : 272/430/437 in 45 A+ games (Car)

Jordan Brown, CLE : 297/352/415 in 31 AAA games (INT)

Chris Carter II, OAK : 212/322/458 in 49 A+ games (Cal)

Other candidates (quickly tiered):

Kyle Blanks, SD: 292/392/404 in 47 AA games (Tex)

...

Matt Sweeney, ANA

Sean Doolittle, OAK: 335/425/627 in 49 A+ games (CAL)

Chris Carter I, BOS : 305/357/487 in 50 AAA games (INT)

Juan Miranda, NYY: 271/405/421 in 32 AAA games (INT)

...

Cody Johnson, ATL: 230/298/431 in 48 A games (SAL)

Anthony Rizzo, BOS: 373/402/446 in 21 A games (SAL) (diagnosed w/ lymphoma)

Brandon Snyder, BAL: 269/314/425 in 45 A+ games (CAR)

Freddie Freeman, ATL: 287/327/484 in 48 A games (SAL)

Yohermyn Chavez, TOR: 224/277/348 in 44 A games (MWL)

Jeff Larish, DET: 274/369/589 in 52 AAA games (INT)

So, the big risers in value for me are Chris Davis, Sean Doolittle, and Jeff Larish; I think each takes a bump up in the prospect strata. Doolittle probably a couple bumps as he's now a top 50 prospect, I think. Votto looks like the real deal and I would guess he's lining himself up for Paul Konerko's career.

I think Weglarz is the sleeper as power is supposed to be his big tool. He's showing himself to be an OBP machine and if the power turns on like it should then we're looking at a wet dream number three hitter.

There were more guys on Wily Mo's list but I can only procrastinate for so long.

I'd recommend adding Jovan Rosa in the Cubs org as a first base sleeper; he's played some first, some third, and is hitting 312/393/471 as a 20 year old in the MWL.

Billy Rowell, criminally underrated

gogotabata — Sun, 11 May 2008 19:18:42 -0000

So, after he was drafted, Rowell hit rookie ball pitching really well and was a super hot prospect -- I think John gave him a B+ and he looked to be maybe the best high school hitter in his class. Last year in A ball he hit a so-so 273/335/426 and it seems everyone has forgotten about him since then. He's still huge and still at third base and he's hitting 304/365/429 in hi-A in the Carolina league. What I think people forget is how freaking young he still is as his birth date is 9/10/88. That is, he'll play all of this year, his third year as a pro, as a teenager.

By comparison, Beau Mills is two years older and is hitting 233/375/388 in the same league. Cody Johnson is one month older and playing one level lower in the Sally league and is hitting 233/313/411. Michael Burgess is basically the same age and is hitting 207/292/446 in the Sally league. It's early in the season and I expect at least Mills and Burgess to bounce back, but I think it's useful to see that guys in his age group (Johnson and Burgess) aren't just struggling, but also struggling one whole level lower.

I think Rowell's age and great first half-season are masking what is a subtly exciting development curve. My guess is that he'll spend the whole season in hi-A ball, maybe showing a little more power and a little less average than he is now. Next year, though, he'll be more ready than any hitter in his age group to make the leap to AA and consolidate his skills, tools and approach, the way Dexter Fowler appears to be doing so now, except the fact that Rowell next year in AA will be a year and a half younger than Fowler is now; even if say he struggles a bit next year (which I'm not expecting) and spends all of 09 in AA and starts off in AA in '10, moves to AAA in '11, and makes it to the majors in 2012, he'd be playing all of '12 as a 23 year old, and that'd be IF it takes him '09/'10/'11 to pass through AA and AAA.

Emerging Prospects

gogotabata — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 19:24:39 -0000

Matt Cusick, 2b, Astros.

The next Ian Kinsler? Cusick was drafted last year out of USC; his 306/422/446 in the New York Penn League. This year, he is crushing the ball in the Sally League: 405/464/716. He was a hitter in college, but it seemed that there were questions because his tools aren't off the charts; from what I've gathered, loosely, he is a decent enough athlete to stay at 2nd. I would guess he gets bumped up to Hi-A if he keeps this up; if he continues to hit after the jump, I think he immediately pops onto the radar as a 2nd base prospect. Right now, he's a definite sleeper.

David Hernandez, SP, Orioles.

Coming into this year, this was a guy I and some others on this site identified as a sleeper; if I remember correctly, we chided John for giving him a C grade, as his peripherals, especially his k/9, pointed towards outstanding stuff the last two years. This year in AA, he seems to be putting it together: 37 k's in 25 innings, with a 2.52 ERA. His k/bb ratio is 37/14, and he has given up three homers in 25 innings. I'm not sure he can keep up that Bugs Bunny-esque k rate, but his track record suggests he's someone who can put up 9+ strikeouts per nine innings, at least in the minors.

Jeff Locke, SP, Braves.

A guy who got more attention coming into this year than Cusick and Hernandez, Locke's early starts have him sporting an ugly 5.63 ERA so far in 24 Sally league innings: but look at his peripherals: a 22/5 k/bb rate, and ZERO homers. Those early, ugly starts will be put in perspective soon, I bet, as his runs scored come back to match the rest of his periphs. I really think this guy is ready to make a jump as a top 50 prospect this year: great size, nice pedigree (2nd round pick), great organization, and a terrific track record so far.

Allen Craig, 3b, Cardinals.

The next Kevin Kouzmanoff? Hasn't had the injury problems Kouz had in the minors, but he seems to profile as a similar type hitter: really solid average and pop with just barely enough defense to stick at third. An 8th round pick in 2006, he hammered Hi-A pitching last year in the tough FSL league with a 312/370/530 line, and then made the late season jump to AA, putting up a 1.070 OPS in seven games. He got out of the gate pretty slowly this year, but seems to be coming around, hitting .357 in his last 10 games and going 253/343/391. I'd be shocked if he doesn't approximate his FSL line in AA by the end of the year.

Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels.

Like Locke, a pretty popular sleeper pick coming into this year; I've stated on this site before that I don't see much separation between Bourjos and Gorkys Hernandez as prospects. I thought he'd show more power (he's very toolsy), but I didn't anticipate the speed he's shown this year. So far in the Hi-A Cal league he's put up a nice leadoff line: 310/372/366 with 17 steals (and just one CS) in 18 games. He's also been described as Gary Pettis 2.0 defensively in CF; if he develops any power he becomes a really, really exciting prospect, but even if he doesn't he still looks like he could become a Gold Glove centerfielder with an above average OBP and lots of steals.

Ben Snyder, SP, Giants.

I know very little about this guy other than his size (6'2", 224) & stat line: 1.23 era and 23/4 k/bb ratio in 29 innings and 1 homer allowed in hi A. He went 16-5 with a 2.09 era last year in lo A, 145/32 k/bb rate in 151 innings.

Steve Garrison, SP, Padres.

Surprised when he made BA's SD top 10, as he doesn't have hot stuff, but his transition to AA has been superb: 1.59 era with a 13/5 k/bb ratio and no homers in 17 innings. The really curious thing is that he's only given up 9 hits in 17 innings, and just 2 hits in his last twelve innings. He can't keep that up, obviously, but I wonder what it is he does to keep hits down: he gave up just 32 hits in 42 Cal league innings last year with a 28/6 k/bb rate.

Beau Mills v Dexter Fowler

gogotabata — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 14:35:31 -0000

Two different types of guys, but I would guess at the same level of prospect value. And both with strange first names.

Mills is looking like he's limited to 1B, but he has been described as having plus-plus power, and looks to be on track to probably being a contributor to the major league club starting in 09.

Fowler has more room between where he is and where he can be; his numbers slipped last year, but he was coming alive when he got hurt, and he seems to be developing plate discipline. His frame suggests plenty of power, but it has been in evidence yet.

Who will have the better career?

Poll

Who will be better?

Dexter Fowler

35 votes

Beau Mills

55 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

The Ghost of Wilson Ramos

gogotabata — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 20:01:09 -0000

So, Baseball America recently ranked him the #3 guy in the Twins system, and John Manuel claimed to have considered him seriously for #1, and that he believed Ramos to be one the of top 5 catching prospects in the minors, and that several Twins people referred to him as 'untouchable.'

Compelling stuff. On the other hand, according to John Sickels here and Kevin Goldstein at BP, Ramos is either rumor, ghost or figment of the imagination, as I haven't read a syllable about him from these two sources -- it appears he didn't even make John's book.

In 73 games in the Midwest League, Ramos hit .291/.345/.438 in 73 games, an OPS of 783 in a league that averaged a 696 OPS and on a team that had a 672 OPS. He did this as a 19 year old at a premium position, and the BA writeup mentions him as a possible 5-tool catcher.

Last year, he hit .286/.339/.435 as an 18 year old in rookie ball, putting up a 774 OPS in a league that averaged 664, and on a team that averaged 673.

Scouting report from BA: "Ramos blends catch-and-throw talent and offensive upside in a manner rare among current minor leaguers. He has excellent strength, helping produce above-average bat speed and power to all fields. A solid-average runner for now, Ramos rounds out his tools with an accurate, above-average arm and the hands to be a sound receiver. He threw out 41 percent of basestealers in 2007."

John Manuel, in the chat: "I think the scouting report on Ramos says it all; he's all tooled up, young, can catch-and-throw and has offensive upside. He's one of the top 5 guys in the minors for me and has a chance to be an all-star. He was considered strongly for the No. 1 spot; when you have people in the organization calling him "untouchable," you have to listen, and at least two scouts we talked to in the Midwest League called him Beloit's top prospect."

Later: "I think the thought is, the Twins probably believe Ramos is in the top 3 catchers in the minors and would have to be overwhelmed to deal him."

So, you have one publication touting him as possibly one of the three or five best prospects at a premium position, and then you have Sickels and Goldstein, who are seemingly unawares of the guy.

Intriguing!

I'd picked him up in my DMB league a month or so before the BA list came out, based on his age, position, stats and a comment in one of the BA chats that league scouts thought Ramos a better all-around prospect than Conger, though Conger had the stronger bat.

In another chat, Jim Callis mentions Ramos as someone who could've been the number one Twins prospect, so it may not just be a case of Manuel having a boner for a guy.

Should a collective boner be growing for this guy? Why haven't Sickels or Goldstein mentioned him?

Bryan Smith at BP lists him as a breakout for 08 guy, and writes:

"A raw Venezuelan catcher, the Twins planned on keeping Ramos in extended spring training before moving onto the Appalachian short-season league. However, an injury to the starting catcher in Beloit coupled with an impressive performance in that extended spring work led to an early June assignment to full-season ball. Ramos was brilliant in his full-season debut, hitting two home runs in just his fifth game at the level. The Twins like Ramos' ability behind the plate, where his strong arm led to an impressive 40.9 caught stealing percentage. At the plate, Ramos' plate discipline--only 19 walks in 318 PA--shows his lack of refinement, but his power numbers reflect that there's some pop in his bat. Ramos was hurt in August, but he continued to get at-bats in the Twins instructional league. While hellish hitter's environments in Fort Myers and the Florida State League delay a 2008 breakout, Ramos' ability will be widely recognized soon enough."

Poll

How does Wilson Ramos grade out?

B-

5 votes

C+

6 votes

C

1 votes

A

2 votes

A-

4 votes

B+

10 votes

B

10 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed