SB Nation User Blog: gojohn10

A comprehensive look at attendance figures

gojohn10 — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 04:23:39 -0000

I was hoping to post this analysis before the door to the A’s staying in Oakland was effectively slammed shut a few days back.

The impetus for me doing this fanpost was that I’ve read too many comments about A’s attendance that are selective and don’t take into account average league attendance figures or the fact that team attendance across MLB has increased almost 50K per year over the last 40 years. Therefore, when someone states that the A’s only drew 2.1 million fans the year they last won a World Series, it’s somewhat disingenuous because in 1989, that figure was 2nd best in MLB. It also is somewhat deceiving to state that A’s attendance was better than the Giants prior to the opening of Pac Bell. It better be! During the period from 1968 to 1999, the Giants’ attendance figures were the second worst in baseball (imagine that, a second-class city like Oakland outdrawing SF for over 30 years).

I think it is clear that the Oakland Athletics have a problem with low attendance, but how bad is the problem? It seems to me that the A’s have to be the thick of a division race just to attract a crowd that isn’t laughable. I’ve paid enough attention to the A’s over the years to think that my view isn’t due to ascertainment bias. Not only that, but why else would the game attendance consistently make it into postgame wrap ups if it wasn’t? Regardless, I wanted to find out for sure if my opinion was really based on fact.

Below is a graph that shows A’s attendance figures and win totals for every year since the their move to Oakland. Both the attendance figures and wins are displayed as their % difference from average (Average attendance figures were AL only).

Not too surprisingly, attendance is highly correlated with the success of the team. Since both attendance and wins have been normalized to the % difference from average, these values can be subtracted from one another so that they can be compared a bit easier. Years in which attendance outpaces wins will have a positive value, while years with negative values have a lower than expected attendance based on the team’s win total.

Except for the Billy Ball and the Bash Brother eras, the team’s attendance is much worse than one would expect based on their success on the field. The red arrows are events that I thought would specifically affect A’s attendance. The effect the three consecutive world titles had on attendance what downright pathetic. Attendance was league average the year of the first world title 1972, but ranked 11th out of 12 AL teams in 1974. My first thought when I saw this how could the community not shoulder a considerable portion of the blame for their lack of support of these legendary teams? How bad could ownership really be to drive away fans to such a dramatic extreme? However, in support of the statements repeated ad nauseam by the so-called Oakland-only crowd, support for the team was considerably the Haas years. Attendance completely reversed course the year Walter Haas took ownership of the team and it precipitously dropped the year he sold the team to Hoffman-Schott. It would seem as though ownership actually can make quite a difference when it comes to attendance. Other factors have a large of an effect as well (e.g. Mt. Davis, Pac Bell Park, loss of popular players) and since one event cannot be isolated to determine it’s effect, we can’t know for sure how much of a difference ownership has made. Still, after seeing this data I’ve changed my tune a bit and would concede that an owner such as Haas can indeed affect fan turnout. Moving on…

I then took the average attendance-wins value over the 41 years from the graph above (green line: -21%) and converted it to the average number of wins that would be needed to achieve average attendance. For the A’s, that value was not good: 100 wins. I then performed the same analysis on every team in MLB. The results are shown below with the values sorted from the most wins needed to achieve average attendance, to the least.

I found out some pretty interesting things that I really did not expect. The Dodgers and the Rockies had, by far, the best attendance relative the quality of the team fielded. In the first seven years after the Rockies were added as an expansion team, including the the strike shortened year 1994, Colorado average over 3.7 million fans a year. Since 1968, the Dodgers have averaged 2.94 million fans per year, finishing 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in NL attendance for 37 of the 41 years. The Yankees averaged 2.36 million fans/year during the same time period while averaging 4 more wins per season than LA. The other thing that surprised me was that the Angels are among the highest drawing teams on the list. For some reason I always figured they drew about as well as the A’s and that the A’s could look to Anaheim as a model for how to turn around a franchise. As it turns out, the two teams really aren’t very comparable.

The bad news is our beloved A’s are among the bottom of the heap. The good news is that nobody can call A’s fans fair weather! Only Pittsburg and Florida have had a worse attendance relative to team wins than the A’s. Even during the Haas era, when the team was considered a "large market" franchise and their ballpark was often mentioned in the same breath as Dodger stadium, the A’s were not drawing like a large market team. The team still needed to produce almost 86 wins per year to achieve average attendance. Nothing to balk at, especially considering the attendance during the reigns of the other owners, but still a number that would place the team in the bottom-half of the league. How much could a new stadium help? Shown below are the teams with new or renovated stadiums, with the win/attendance values split between the old and new ballpark.

Since so many teams have built new ballparks, there are several case studies to learn from. Prior to their move to new facilities, Pittsburg, Cleveland, and San Francisco all had attendance figures comparable to the A’s current situation. Certainly, the A’s would want to avoid a situation like what has happened in Pittsburg. The Pirates have been able to achieve the average increase in attendance figures observed when opening a new park, but their figures were so poor to begin with that the new values are still quite poor.

Cleveland and San Francisco are models the A’s would certainly hope to emulate. Reminiscent of the current situation in Oakland, their previous home parks had reputations for being among the worst parks in the league. Perhaps with a better ownership group and a brand spankin’ new ballpark downtown or on the Oakland waterfront, the team can/could have made a similar kind of turn around. However, with the crown jewel of modern ballparks only a few miles away, who knows how that would affect the popularity of an Oakland ballpark? When Pac Bell opened in 2000, there was a large drop in A’s attendance relative to team quality that year, especially considering they won the division that year on the last day of the season. This suggests that the Giants were able to bring some naïve A’s fans over to the dark side. A’s attendance did rebound to pre-Pac Bell levels by 2003, but one has to wonder whether attendance would have been significantly better during this time period if the Giants still played at Candlestick? I think the answer is a resounding yes, but I’m sure others will disagree.

I’m not even going to get into how a move to San Jose or elsewhere might affect attendance. That has already been discussed elsewhere, including here, here, and pretty much daily here.

Ticket Swap! Thread Cont.

gojohn10 — Fri, 06 Oct 2006 03:49:45 -0000

Here is the link to the last ticket swap thread that is now way down the list of diaries: http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2006/10/5/12023/3994

I have one extra ticket for tomorrow if anyone wants a bleacher seat in LF (Section 136 row 39 seat 3). $26 for the ticket was the price I paid including fees. As long as you don't mind sitting next to me and my 2 and a half year old, you can have the ticket for the same price. Email me at john10car @ mac.com if interested.

LET'S GO A'S!!!!

Tuesday night's game - I need friends

gojohn10 — Tue, 01 Aug 2006 11:52:55 -0000

I went last night with my in-laws, but they're unavailable tonight. Anyone out there that is ticketless and would like to sit with me so I don't have to sit alone? I don't have tickets yet but would am planning to get tickets off the Angels exchange before noon. I'll also accept an extra ticket if someone has one (I'll pay for it of course).

I'd also be interested in any pregame consumption of adult beverages if anyone has plans.

BTW, what is up with Boston fans? No matter what park you go to, they show up decked out in Red Sox gear whether their team is playing or not. Saw it last night, earlier in the year at San Diego, and at the Coliseum. It's just wierd.

Last minute extra ticket thread

gojohn10 — Mon, 03 Apr 2006 21:33:35 -0000

My stupid friend is afraid of water so I have an extra ticket for tonights game that I would rather not have go to waste. It is a standing room only ticket, so you won't have to sit in a wet seat (What a deal!) If someone wants it, they can have it free of charge. Shoot me an email at the address below and leave a phone number I can reach you.

johntb -AT -berkeley -dot - edu

Anyone else with extra tickets feel free to post here.

A's sign Bradley and Calero

gojohn10 — Thu, 12 Jan 2006 00:29:39 -0000

[EDITOR'S NOTE: This is great news as the A's have avoided arbitration with Milton Bradley and Kiko Calero. Bradley seems like he could be a steal at $3 million a year. Arbitration likely could've led to a much bigger hit and if he's healthy, Bradley could produce quite a season in green and gold. - Blez]

Yippee, no arbitration for Milton!

here's the link for the press release

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Oakland A's today announced that they have agreed to terms with outfielder Milton Bradley and right-handed pitcher Kiko Calero on one-year contracts for the 2006 season.
Bradley was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers with infielder Antonio Perez in exchange for Andre Ethier on December 13, 2005. He batted .290 with 13 home runs and 38 RBI in 75 games with the Dodgers last year in a season interrupted by injuries twice. The 27-year old Bradley has a .269 career batting average with 54 home runs and 233 RBI in 534 games in the Majors.

Calero made 58 relief appearances with the A's last year and was 4-1 with a save and a 3.23 ERA. He allowed a .216 opponents batting average and first batters faced hit .170 which ranked sixth lowest among American League relievers. The 31-year old Calero has a 2.97 ERA in 125 career appearances.

Bradley and Calero were among the five arbitration eligible players on the A's roster that had not signed for 2006. The remaining three are right-handed pitcher Juan Cruz, catcher Adam Melhuse and infielder Mark Ellis.

Update [2006-1-11 19:42:49 by gojohn10]: Thanks to andeux for the link on the financials. Bradley, hoping to return to his top form after a season-ending left knee injury Aug. 23 that required surgery, will receive $3 million with the chance to earn an additional $200,000 in performance bonuses. Calero receives an $850,000 salary.

How hurt will Frank be? (w/ Poll)

gojohn10 — Sat, 07 Jan 2006 22:46:34 -0000

Jerry Crasnick has an ESPN insider article on free agent veteran bats still available. Here is a snippet from the portion of the article on Frank Thomas. What he has here is really nothing different from Susan Slusser's article yesterday

Although Thomas has been dogged by ankle problems, he showed enough pop to make clubs think he can have an impact if healthy. He batted only .219, but hit 12 homers in 105 at-bats for a .590 slugging percentage. Thomas also helped amend his image as a "me first" guy by cheering on his teammates with his foot in a cast during the World Series. And unlike the other sluggers on the waiting list, he hasn't encountered a hint of steroid speculation.

...

Oakland remains a prime Thomas suitor

...

Signing Thomas might create enough of a logjam that the Athletics have to move a hitter -- most likely outfielder Jay Payton. But that doesn't appear to be a major impediment to a deal.

The trading of Jay Payton if Thomas is signed is being discussed in OaktownIn06's Diary. Personally, I think it would be a mistake to move Payton if we are only doing so out of fear that he will blow up like last year in Boston because he was not getting enough playing time. Here's three reasons why: (1) Bradley (2) Kotsay (2)Thomas. All three of these guys have an injury plagued history and I suspect Payton would be getting plenty of at bats.

But the poll below deals with the appropriately named "Big Hurt". If healthy, this Walt Hriniak protégé would be a heck of a pick up (Here are Thomas' career numbers). Most people agree with that theory, but because that is a huge IF, the debate about Oakland's interest in Thomas mostly centers around his health. How many at bats do you think Frank Thomas will have in 2006? Cast your vote below.

Poll

Big Hurt at bats in 2006?

<150

16 votes

151-300

60 votes

300-450

49 votes

>450

11 votes

136 votes | Poll has closed

AN Day Pictures (warning, no popular people)

gojohn10 — Wed, 17 Aug 2005 06:44:22 -0000

I had a blast at AN day. It was a bit weird talking to people that you kind of know well, but not really at all, but I got over it and enjoyed my internet buddies nonetheless. I didn't get to meet everyone, but the people I did talk to were really cool. I also enjoyed watching the A's winning a game. So, with AN land sulking tonight, I thought I would post pictures from the last game we won. Remember those days? It seems like an eternity ago. Enjoy!

This was the view from my seat

Melisa and other ANers

Me and Melisa

Mike Heath and his significant other

FormerHuntsvilleStar at his first A's game in Oakland

EasyRaider and his son

Hooray! Everyone cheers Kotsay's HR while Jerry (of kimNjerry) does his best impression of Kotsay rounding the bases

Me and the future GM of the Oakland Athletics, ohad. I'll be showing my grandkids this one.

Stupid Wave

Not AN day, but my kid couldn't make it and I was jealous of seeing everyone pictures of everyone else's kid and not mine

one more (couldn't resist)

This is how I want to be remembered

gojohn10 — Fri, 08 Jul 2005 04:50:17 -0000

Tonight's game was pretty depressing. I really thought we were going to take this one. Here I'm happy that Rincon is being defended on AN and then he goes out tonight and sucks monkey balls. Bad timing.

At least when I finally keel over after watching my beloved A's lose another heartbreaker, my family will know how I want my memorial service set up. I got the idea from a recently deceased Steeler fan. Of course, they'll replace the black and gold with green and gold.

http://www.presstelegram.com/Stories/0,1413,204~29553~2954090,00.html

Fan takes loyalties to the grave
James Henry Smith was a zealous Pittsburgh Steelers fan in life, and even death could not keep him from his favorite spot: in a recliner, in front of a TV showing his beloved team in action.
Smith, 55, of Pittsburgh, died of prostate cancer on June 30th. Because his death wasn't unexpected, his family was able to plan for an unusual viewing Tuesday night.

The Samuel E. Coston Funeral Home erected a small stage in a viewing room, and arranged furniture on it much as it was in Smith's home on game day Sundays.

Smith's body was on the recliner, his feet crossed and a remote in his hand. He wore black and gold silk pajamas, slippers and a robe. A pack of cigarettes and a beer were at his side, while a high-definition TV played a continuous loop of Steelers highlights.

"I couldn't stop crying after looking at the Steeler blanket in his lap,' said his sister, MaryAnn Nails, 58. "He loved football and nobody did (anything) until the game went off. It was just like he was at home.'

Draft Trend: avoiding HS pitchers

gojohn10 — Thu, 09 Jun 2005 07:41:02 -0000

The A's picked a plethora of high school pitchers in this year's draft. In fact, they picked 5 in the first 7 rounds. While Moneyball stresses using draft picks on college players (esp. pitchers), many here on AN, including myself, stated this change in strategy was just Beane & Co. exploiting another market inequity. So, is it true that college pitchers have become overvalued in recent years? I looked at the trends. Since the bulk of our HS pitchers were taken rounds 1-7, I focused on those rounds. Here are the results:

% High School Pitchers chosen per round
draft rounds
1-7 1-3 4-7
2001 44% 45% 41%
2002 42% 45% 39%
2003 32% 38% 28%
2004 24% 21% 28%
2005(-A's) 28% 35% 21%

I was surprised to see just how large the change had been. From 2001-2004 the percentage has dropped ~50%. The trend rebounded slightly (ignoring the A's picks) in 2005 due to an increase in the early rounds while the % HS pitchers taken in rounds 4-7 continued to decrease. The A's chose 3 HS pitchers in rounds 5-7, so maybe those picks were the best steals. Perhaps the increase in %HS pitchers chosen in rounds 1-3 this year represents not a reversion of philosophy of the other teams, but a strong HS pitcher draft class (of which I've heard, but I have no idea if it's true). Regardless, it does appear that the A's were able to exploit an undervalued commodity. The funny thing is the A's were the ones that started everyone in the direction of college players. Kind of reminds me of "Trading Spaces" when Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd sell off all those orange juice commodities to the Duke brothers who are trying to corner the market, only buy back the commodities when the futures report comes out and OJ commodities prices drop, bankrupting the Dukes and making themselves rich.

Even the front office is not immune to controversy

gojohn10 — Wed, 06 Apr 2005 21:37:24 -0000

Keough gets busted!

"Former All-Star pitcher Matt Keough was arrested for investigation of drunken driving and leaving the scene of an accident after a collision that injured a pedestrian, the Orange County Sheriff's Department said Tuesday."

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/n/a/2005/04/05/sports/s153652D12.DTL

Yikes, doesn't sound good at all. I do hope the injured pedestrian is ok.

I'm pretty sure Keough used to be our advanced scout, but I just checked out the front office directory on oaklandathletics.com and he is listed as "Special Assistant to the General Manager." So, I'm sure this won't effect the team. I wonder if he'll keep his position.