SB Nation User Blog: goodymobb

7/19/09: Haren returns to STL? Anyone want tickets?

goodymobb — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:27:33 -0000

7/19/09: Haren returns to STL? Anyone want tickets?

Sorry if this seems spammy, but I can't use my tickets to Sunday's game vs. the DBacks and am looking for takers. It looks like Dan Haren is slated to face everyone's favorite heavy sinkerballer Joel Pineiro in a day game (1:15 pm). I've got 2 tickets in section 349 (behind home plate, near press box) face valued at $37 each. I've got them listed on Craigslist for $60 but would welcome an offer from a VEBer who could make the game. Shoot me a message if you're interested or post if you have any questions. Hope everyone's enjoying the All-Star festivities and all the love STL's getting from the national media.

Quality starts...but not the good kind.

goodymobb — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 22:23:31 -0000

The team's offensive woes have been discussed ad nauseum, but what I think we haven't really touched on in detail is just what these deficiencies do for the teams we face. Obviously it's easier to beat a team when it's only scoring 2-3 runs/game, but the lack of offensive production turns basically any pitcher into a "quality starter" when facing the Cards. Consider the following table:

Quality Start = 6+ IP, 3 ER or fewer
Date-Opponent	Opposing Starter's Stats	Starter's current stats
4/26- CHC (L 10-3)	Harden 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER	4-2, 4.74 ERA in 43.2 IP
4/27- ATL (W 3-2)	Jurrjens 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER	5-3; 2.84 ERA in 73 IP
4/28- ATL (L 2-1)	Reyes 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER	0-2; 7 ERA in 27 IP
4/29- ATL (W 5-3)	Vazquez 8 IP, 9 H, 5 ER	4-4; 3.58 ERA in 70.1 IP
4/30- WAS (W 9-4)	Cabrera 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER	0-5; 5.85 ERA in 40 IP
5/1- WAS (W 6-2)	Zimmerman 5.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER	2-3; 5.71 ERA in 52 IP
5/2- WAS (L 6-1)	Martis 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER	5-1; 5.31 ERA in 62.2 IP
5/3- WAS PP'd
5/4- PHI (L 6-1)	Blanton 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER	4-3; 5.86 in 58.1 IP
5/5- PHI (L 10-7)	Myers 5.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER	4-3; 4.66 in 63.2 IP
5/6- PIT (W 4-2)	Duke 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER	6-4; 2.62 in 79 IP
5/7- PIT (W 5-2)	Ohlendorf 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER	5-5; 4.85 ERA in 65 IP
5/8- CIN (L 6-4)	Cueto 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER	5-3; 2.43 ERA in 74 IP
5/9- CIN (L 8-3)	Harang 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER	5-6; 4.11 ERA in 76.2 IP
5/10- CIN (W 8-7)	Volquez 6.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER	4-2; 4.35 ERA in 49.2 IP
5/12 - PIT (L 7-1)	Duke 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER	6-4; 2.62 in 79 IP
5/13- PIT (L 5-2)	Ohlendorf (again) 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER	5-5; 4.85 ERA in 65 IP
5/14- PIT (L 5-1)	Karstens 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER	2-3; 5.30 ERA in 56 IP
5/15- MIL (SUSP)
5/16- MIL (L 1-0)	Suppan 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER	3-4; 5.09 ERA in 58.1 IP
5/17- MIL (L 8-2)	Parra 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER	3-7; 6.75 ERA in 57.1 IP
5/18- MIL (L 8-4)	Looper 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER	5-3; 4.65 ERA in 62 IP
5/19- CHC (W 3-0)	Lilly 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER	6-4; 3.28 ERA in 71.1 IP
5/20- CHC (W 2-1)	Dempster 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER	4-3; 4.48 ERA in 68.1 IP
5/21- CHC (W 3-1)	Marshall 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER	3-4; 4.73 ERA in 45.2 IP
5/22- KC (W 5-0)	Davies 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER	2-5; 5.20 ERA in 64 IP
5/23- KC (W 5-0)	Hochevar 6.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER	0-2; 10.80 ERA in 11.2 IP
5/24- KC (L 3-2)	Bannister 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER	4-3; 4.97 ERA in 50.2 IP
5/25- MIL (L 1-0)	Gallardo 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER	6-2; 2.84 ERA in 73 IP
5/26- MIL (W 8-1)	Suppan 3.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER	3-4; 5.09 ERA in 58.1 IP
5/27- MIL (W 3-2)	Parra 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER	3-7; 6.75 ERA in 57.1 IP
5/29- SF (L 4-2)	Cain 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER	7-1; 2.27 ERA in 71.1 IP
5/30- SF (W 6-2)	Zito (!) 6.2 IP, 10 H, 3 ER	2-6; 3.86 ERA in 67.2 IP
5/31- SF (L 5-3)	Sanchez 4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER	2-4; 4.75 ERA in 47.1 IP
6/1- CIN (L 5-3)	Volquez 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER; Lincoln et al., 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER	4-2; 4.35 ERA in 49.2 IP
6/2- CIN (W 5-2)	Arroyo 5.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER	7-4; 5.37 ERA in 70.1 IP
6/3- CIN (L 9-3)	Cueto 6.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER	5-3; 2.43 ERA in 74 IP
6/4- CIN (W 3-1)	Harang 8 IP, 8 H, 3 ER	5-6; 4.11 ERA in 76.2 IP
6/5- COL (L 11-4	De La Rosa 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER	1-6; 5.28 ERA in 61.1 IP

I realize that traditional pitching stats (e.g., W/L, ERA) don't tell the whole story and are often misleading, but I think they are useful for descriptive purposes. If we look at the starting performances for each of the pitchers we've faced since 4/26 (i.e., the last game against the Cubs), which can loosely be considered the start of the Cards' troubles, given their disappointing 12-15 May, we can clearly see that 25 out of the last 37 starters we've faced have turned in "quality starts" against whatever lineup iteration we've happened to pencil in for that particular day.

Of course, one of the pitchers among the 37 counted for this exercise was Edison Volquez, who left his start on 6/1 with an injury after 1 IP. Unfortunately for the Birdos, the incomparable Mike Lincoln and company filled in admirably, yielding just 1 ER and 5 H over 8 strong innings of relief. We should probably discard this start from the pool, so we're looking at 25/36 now, but however you slice it, failing to put up more than 1 ER against 8 innings of bullpen mop-up duty when a stud starter leaves the game is pretty disappointing, to say the least.

As far as the performances of those remaining 12 starters, many of them looked pretty strong against our anemic offense as well. If we relax the "quality start" criteria by just one unit (i.e., 5+ IP, 4 ER or fewer), we can add 3 more performances to the "quality" starts against the Cards pool, for a running tab of 28 out of the past 36 pitchers we've faced. Clearly, you can't win baseball games when you don't score runs and our glaring offensive troubles really stack the deck against the team, even when the opposing team sends a very average starter to the hill.

During this period, the Cards have tallied a meager 130 runs over 37 games, good for a 3.5 runs/game average. Four times during this period we've lost when the opponent has scored 3 or fewer runs; we've lost another game when the opposition only scored 4 runs.

Further, it's not like the Cards have been facing off against baseball's best. Scan the table and instead of names like Lincecum, Hamels, and Greinke, you'll see such world beaters as JoJo Reyes (0-2; 7.00 ERA total, but 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER vs. STL), Shairon Martis (5-1; 5.31 ERA total, but a complete game, 5 hit, 1 ER performance vs. STL), Joe Blanton (4-3; 5.86 ERA total, but 6 IP, 4 hit, 1 ER), Ross Ohlendorf (5-5; 4.85 ERA total, but 12 IP, 9 H, 6 ER in two games vs. STL), Luke Hochevar (0-2; 10.80 ERA total, but 6.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER vs. STL), Manny Parra (3-7; 6.75 ERA total, but 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ERA vs. STL), and Jorge "Cy" De La Rosa (1-6; 5.28 ERA total, but 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER vs. STL) absolutely shutting down the Cardinals' bats.

Thankfully, prior to last night, anyway, our collective pitching staff was among the best in baseball. Unfortunately, the starters (or the team, usually) don't have the glamour stats (e.g., Wins) to show for their efforts. If not for some gutsy (and perhaps unsustainable) performances by our starters over the last month-plus, this rough patch would look even worse within the context of the W/L column.

No matter which lens through which we look, I think it's clear that we need an offensive upgrade from somewhere in order to help pick up some of the slack. When the other team's 3rd, 4th, 5th, and/or call-up starters are regularly tossing up gems against your offense, it's fairly obvious that your lineup could use a significant shot in the arm. Our pitching staff can't be expected to be lights-out every night and at some point, our offense needs to throw up more than three-and-a-half runs per game on a regular basis.

It was a dumb decision, but what's to blame?

goodymobb — Wed, 11 Jul 2007 13:18:48 -0000

So I agree that TLR's decision was a disappointing one (to say the least), but what's really to blame here? The MLB All-Star game is incredibly flawed: 1- Now "it counts." There's some sort of incentive to win the game. 2- However, the fans ( and really, we're talking about the fans who have the most internet access) set the starting lineups. Now, these starters are not necessarily the best players like, you know, "starters" in the traditional sense of the word. Rather, these starters are the most popular players. Following the naming of the starters by the fans, the manager and players select some guys, then the fans vote AGAIN on the final guy. 3- With most All-Star games, there are some unwritten rules. First, you only pitch your starters 1-2 innings. Second, basically no player will receive more than 2 ABs. Third, the manager will try his best to juggle everything and get everyone into the game at some point. 4- However, if the objective was to win the game because it counts, there shouldn't be this pressure to make sure that everyone gets some playing time. Rather, you would determine the 8 best position players to field a team, plus your best starting pitcher and roll with it for the majority of the game, guided by the logic that the best guys give you the best chance to win, so these guys should be given the most chances to make something happen. Sure, you'd make some timely substitutions for pinch-hitting situations or defensive replacements late into the game, but there would be less of a juggling act.

So ultimately, given the dumb unwritten rule that everyone (who isn't a Royal) gets into the game at some point, what's a guy to do?

While most people realize that you can't please everyone, MLB seems to be of the mindset that being vague and ambivalent about a bunch of different things maximizes the popularity of the game.

It's the fans' game, so they should pick the starters. Yet the game "matters", so make sure you aren't horsing around out there and that your squad is playing to win. Oh, but make sure that you don't simply play the best guys for 9 innings, but that you try to juggle the roster so that you have substitution after substitution so each player (who's isn't a Royal) can say "Yeah, I played in the All-Star game once."

It's really dumb and I'm not really sure why the game has to "matter." No other All-Star game matters - each is an exhibition and people have fun with it - yet MLB seems to think their game has to be all things to all people, plus it has to count for something so that the players and managers put forth maximum effort.