http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2009/10/01/top-25-pitching-prospects

 

1         Stephen Strasburg         RHP         CH is a wild card but his FB and CB are both MLB-ready pitches; mechanics aren't perfect         21.2         WAS         NCAA
2         Brian Matusz         LHP         Flew through minors thanks to 4 potential above-average pitches; commands at the knees         22.7         BAL         MLB
3         Daniel Hudson         RHP         Too good to be true? Showing lots of FB/CH movement in bigs; needs a out pitch for righties    22.6         CHW         MLB
4         Neftali Feliz         RHP         Still a bit raw but has ace potential thanks to FB that sits in mid-90s and outstanding slider         21.4         TEX         MLB
5         Jeremy Hellickson         RHP         Works off 90-93 FB that he pounds zone with; outstanding CH; CB is solid but inconsistent         22.5         TB         AAA
6         Wade Davis         RHP         Commands straight,  90-94 FB well; CB can be filthy and SL is a good pitch; CH isn't special         24.1         TB         MLB
7         Carlos Carrasco         RHP         We love the movement on his FB, CH and CB, but we'll admit that he's still raw; ace upside         22.5         CLE         MLB
8         Jhoulys Chacin         RHP         Has question marks and upside; great movement on sinking FB; CH is his out pitch; good SL         21.7         COL         MLB
9         Madison Bumgarner         LHP         Strength is good command of deceptive FB; SL has improved -- still inconsistent, though         20.2         SF         MLB
10         Kyle Drabek         RHP         Finesse guy with a power arsenal; a pitcher more than thrower; 92-96 FB; CB is a K pitch         21.8         PHI         AA
11         Martin Perez         LHP         Throws sharp hammer curve, dirty slider and straight, 94-96 FB -- mediocre FB command         18.5         TEX         AA
12         Christian Friedrich         LHP         Best pitch: devastating CB that he commands well; 90-94 FB w/ good sink; CH could be ave.    22.2         COL         A+
13         Hector Rondon         RHP         Raw w/ upside; 91-94 FB -- misses over the plate a bit too much; impressive SL and CH         21.6         CLE         AAA
14         Junichi Tazawa         RHP         Deceptive pitcher has huge 12/6 CB, good FB movement and strong CH; excellent command    23.3         BOS         MLB
15         Mike Leake         RHP         Awesome command of 90-93 FB that has a lot of movement; impressive CH; big GB guy         21.9         CIN         NCAA
16         Jon Niese         LHP         His 88-92 FB moves a lot + is deceptive -- commands it well, too; CB can be a knee-buckler         22.9         NYM         MLB
17         Jake Arrieta         RHP         Good athlete; 3 promising secondary pitches; straight 90-93 FB w/ inconsistent command         23.6         BAL         AAA
18         Jenrry Mejia         RHP         Owner of a filthy 94-98 FB that has hard, cutting action; CH has excellent movement         20.0         NYM         AA
19         Casey Kelly         RHP         Outstanding athlete has three pitches that could be ave. or better: 86-90 FB, CB and CH         20.0         BOS         A+
20         Michael Montgomery         LHP         Up-and-down 1st full season; was tough to hit, missed a lot of bats and adjusted well to A+    20.3         KC         A+
21         Jarrod Parker         RHP         No. 1-2 stuff, near-MLB ready, but elbow injury could steal some time; FB command lacking         20.9         ARI         AA
22         Kevin Mulvey         RHP         Big CB has emerged as a K pitch; great, sinking FB -- not always sharp; could be a no. 3-4         24.4         ARI         MLB
23         Brad Lincoln         RHP         Thrower more than a pitcher; hard and heavy 2 and 4-seamer; promising CB is inconsistent         24.4         PIT         AAA
24         Matthew Moore         LHP         Has MLB stuff; very good CH, disgusting CB, explosive 88-91 FB -- isn't always sharp         20.3         TB         A
25         Zeke Spruill         RHP         Gets nasty sink with 91-92 FB; CH may already be a plus pitch; his CB is a good pitch, too         20.1         ATL         A
Honorable Mentions
26         Julio Teheran         RHP         Had some dominant Low-A outings at end of the season, including 7 no-hit innings on 9/2         18.7         ATL         A
27         Stolmy Pimentel         RHP         Began year w/ very good CB, finished w/ outstanding -- we heard a Zito comp for the pitch    19.7         BOS         A
28         Casey Crosby         LHP         Recovered from high walk rates in April/May to have plenty of dominating 2nd-half outings         21.1         DET         A
29         Zach Britton         LHP         Sick GB rates + steady performance and improving command = 2010 breakout candidate         21.8         BAL         A+
30         Zack Stewart         RHP         Fast-riser has MLB stuff; question is if he can handle a starter's work load going forward         23.0         TOR         AAA

 

 

Obviously a slightly bizarre list with extremely high and low rankings.  projectprospect.com wants to stress the their "rankings put a lot of weight into floor as well as ceiling".   Some of these rankings are extremely gutsy such as Daniel Hudson at #3, Carlos Carrasco at #7, Zeke Sprulli at #25, Stomly Pimentel and Julio Teheran as HMs, Mike Leake at #15, and Kevin Mulvey at #22.  

I was going to wait until the end of the MiLB season to post this, but the site hasn't produced many new fanposts recently so I thought it would be a good time.  It might be a good idea to post the previous grade too as well as a new grade that you would put.  Any players who have lost prospect eligibility are good too such as Mat Latos and players who are close to losing eligibility are cool too such as Brian Matusz

So the Royals just signed Chris Dwyer to a huge signing bonus for a 4th round guy.  He is a freshman out of Clemson.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1486Posted Aug. 13, 2009 2:26 pm by Jim Callis
Filed under: Uncategorized
The Royals and Clemson lefthander Chris Dwyer have agreed to terms on a $1.45 million bonus. That's a record for the fourth round, eclipsing the $1.3 million the Yankees gave Brad Suttle in 2007. It's also well over MLB's $240,300 recommendation for Dwyer's slot (122nd overall).

The best freshman-eligible prospect in draft history, Dwyer is a quality athlete with a 90-94 mph fastball and hammer curveball. He came on strong at the end of the college season and turned in one brilliant outing with the Cape Cod League's Cotuit Kettleers before taking the rest of the summer off. 

courtesy of baseballamerica.com

 

 My question is that how are some college freshmen and sophomores eligible for the draft, while others are not?  And are all juniors and seniors eligible?

Also with the signing day approaching, use this thread to post any and all signings.

Notable Pitchers today include:

AAA:Carlos Carrasco, Horacio Ramirez, Fabio Castro, Hayden Penn, Eric Stults, Esmil Rogers, Steve Hammond, Josh Banks

AA: Brandon Erbe, Tyson Ross, Anthony Lerew 

A+: Craig Clark, Joseph Williamson

A: Nick Barnese, Nick Hagadone, Stolmy Pimentel

SS A: Robbie Ross

In other news, Alex Avila made his MLB debut today, and went 2-4 with a 2B, RBI, and a K.  I have high hopes for him.

 

Go ahead and do your thing in the comments

Good day everybody.  Here are some probable pitchers for today's action:

Triple-A has Andy Sonnastine, Jake Arrieta, Chris Narveson, Joe Martinez, Brandon Morrow, Trevor Bell, T.J. Beam, Lenny DiNardo, and Cesar Carillo

Double-A is light with the Eastern League taking a day off, but Andrew Cashner and Trevor Reckling are throwing

The only high-A game is Brevard County (Michael Bowman) against Dayton (James Leverton)

Low-A features Tim Melville, T.J. House, Ross Seaton, and Manuel Banuelos.

Kinda surprised nobody posted this with the high amounts of pitching going on today:

AAA – Hector Rondon, Brad Lincoln vs. Wade Davis (pretty strong matchup), Gustavo Chacin vs. Philip Humber (I used to absolutely love chacin),  Junichi Tazawa, Charlie Haegar

AA – Jeanmar Gomez vs. Bradley Holt (another strong matchup), Radhames Liz, Jeremy Papelbon, Kasey Kiker (does he stick at starter or reliever, he's having a great season in my mind), Lance Lynn, 

A+ – Mark Rogers, Kyle Nicholson

A – Andrew Carraway, Aaron Miller, Joseph Serafin, Ross Seaton, Manuel Banuelos

Considering how in 2001, I was only 8 years old, I didn't really follow MiLB too much, so I can't recall what exactly people were saying about specific players.  I have put the top-100 BaseballAmerica rankings from 2001 in positional order.  I wanted to see which positions yielding the most positive results.  I plan on doing this for a couple other seasons, let me know if you like them posted, or if I should keep them to myself.  Also, let me know on any suggestions you have for my style or anything else.  Should I keep it like this or should it be position-by-position posts?

 

RHP - 38: 8 successes, 7 mild success, 11 mild failures, 11 failures, 1 incomplete

SUCCESS                          3. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins - asserted himself in 2002, since rookie season topped a 4.00 ERA only twice (2006 5.01 and 2008 4.03) and has established himself as one of the top starting pitchers in MLB

 

MILD SUCCESS             4. Jon Rauch, rhp, White Sox - bounced around from 2002 to 2005.  Never becomes the top starter people had hoped, but has become a useful relief pitcher and a psuedo closer in 2008 for WAS.

 

SUCCESS                         5. Ben Sheets, rhp, Brewers - established himself in 2001, arm troubles have held him back, but when he is healthy, he is filthy

 

SUCCESS                         13. Roy Oswalt, rhp, Astros - For this one I will just quote thebaseballcube.com. "Best known for: Astros Ace during 2000s decade"

 

MILD FAILURE            15. Chin-Hui Tsao, rhp, Rockies - bust, 8 career starts (unimpressive 8 too), and had various callups from COL and LAD, never did much though. Out of professional baseball.

 

MILD SUCCESS            17. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs - rookie in 2001, poor as a starter, starting to emerge as a pretty good reliever, with control being his biggest enemy.

 

MILD SUCCESS            19. Jerome Williams, rhp, Giants - terrific rookie season with SF in 2003, decent 2004, 2005 and beyond was rough due to mother's death.  he gained weight and is just now starting to work himself back in shape with OAK.  I'm pulling for him

 

FAILURE                        20. Bobby Bradley, rhp, Pirates - 2000 was easily his best season, missed most of 2001 and all of 2002.  out of baseball by 2005.

 

FAILURE                        26. Donnie Bridges, rhp, Expos - 2000 was his 1-hit wonder season, injuries slowed him down and never recovered.  out of baseball by 2005

 

MILD FAILURE            30. Kurt Ainsworth, rhp, Giants - brief glimmers of success, after trade for Sidney Ponson, never became anything at all.  out of baseball by 2004.

 

MILD FAILURE            28. Matt Belisle, rhp, Braves - missed all of 2001, become more of a big league spot starter and relief pitcher than anything else.

 

FAILURE                        37. Ben Christensen, rhp, Cubs - bust, never makes it passed AA.  out of baseball by 2003

 

SUCCESS                        40. Jacob Peavy, rhp, Padres - rookie season 2002, really established himself in 2004 and doesn't look back, one of the best pitchers in the NL.

 

FAILURE                        41. Adam Johnson, rhp, Twins - the #2 pick from 2000 is strong in 2001 at AA, last of his success.  out of professional baseball in 2006

 

MILD FAILURE            44. Matt Ginter, rhp, White Sox - became a very good AAA pitcher, and a very bad MLB pitcher. still fighting it out with the Brewers.

 

FAILURE                        45. Wes Anderson, rhp, Marlins - never makes it past A+, control issues are the biggest problem.

 

SUCCESS                        47. Brett Myers, rhp, Phillies - a solid starter, innings eater and sometimes a very dominant pitcher.  shortly converted to pen, and back, with mild success on both ends

 

MILD FAILURE            49. Tim Redding, rhp, Astros - nothing special, became an adequate #5 starter on some teams.

 

FAILURE                        51. Matt McClendon, rhp, Braves - never again had any success, out of baseball by 2004.

 

MILD FAILURE            52. Jason Standridge, rhp, Devil Rays - big leagues in 2001, never enjoyed success.  still pitching in FLA AAA

 

FAILURE                        53. Wascar Serrano, rhp, Padres - very confused why he was a top-prospect.  he was 33, however he never became much, and he is out of baseball by 2005

 

FAILURE                        61. Dan Wright, rhp, White Sox - a decent 2002, never anything after that, out of baseball by 2006.

 

MILD FAILURE            63. Pat Strange, rhp, Mets - no major league success, out of baseball by 2004

 

FAILURE                        65. Jovanny Cedeno, rhp, Rangers - never past A+ ball, out of baseball by 2003

 

MILD FAILURE            66. Adrian Hernandez, rhp, Yankees - no major league success, out of baseball by 2005

 

SUCCESS                        68. Carlos Zambrano, rhp, Cubs - since 2001, never a season with a 4.00+ ERA, a terrific pitcher, borderline ace, terrific #2 depending on the situation

 

MILD FAILURE            69. Jesus Colome, rhp, Devil Rays - converted to the pen, but he has not been very good there either.  still playing as a pretty mediocre reliever.

 

SUCCESS                        71. Francisco Rodriguez, rhp, Angels - converted to the pen, 2003 rookie season, been a top-3 closer since.

 

MILD FAILURE            76. Brad Baker, rhp, Red Sox - never any big league success, out of baseball by 2007

 

FAILURE                        78. Brad Baisley, rhp, Phillies - never made it past AA, out of baseball by 2004

 

MILD SUCCESS            79. Mike MacDougal, rhp, Royals - rookie season 2002, 2005 and 2006 were his best years.  still a decent reliever (pseudo closer for WAS)

 

MILD SUCCESS            80. Joel Pineiro, rhp, Mariners - very inconsistent starter, great years in 2002 and 2003, off and on every since

 

FAILURE                        83. Nick Neugebauer, rhp, Brewers - no MLB success, out of baseball by 2004

MILD FAILURE            84. Justin Miller, rhp, Athletics - no success until this season, helps to anchor SF's surprise top-bullpen. has to pitch with sleeves due to dense tattoos

 

MILD SUCCESS            88. Danys Baez, rhp, Indians - been a solid to good big league reliever.  a much better reliever than starter

 

MILD SUCCESS            92. Jason Marquis, rhp, Braves - a solid innings eater back end starter, nothing spectacular, got a[n undeserved] all-star appearance this season.

 

SUCCESS                        97. Adam Wainwright, rhp, Braves - rookie in 2006 as a reliever, turned back to starter in 2007 and is a very good front-rotation pitcher

 

VERY SAD                        100. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays - never made it past AAA, out of baseball by 2003.

 

LHP - 7: 1 success, 1 mild success, 2 mild failures, 3 failures

SUCCESS                        7. C.C. Sabathia, lhp, Indians - instant ace in 2001, never looked back and is now the richest pitcher in MLB history (other than the other Matt White, who found 2 billion dollars worth of stone in his backyard, so I guess that makes him a little richer than C.C.)

 

FAILURE                        8. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners - never made it past AAA, out of baseball by 2005

 

MILD FAILURE            25. Chris George, lhp, Royals - very limited MLB success, playing for BOS AAA Pawtucket today

 

MILD SUCCESS            39. Bud Smith, lhp, Cardinals - terrific rookie season in 2001, threw a no-hitter, never did much else, out of baseball by 2007

           

FAILURE                        50. Joe Torres, lhp, Angels - never made it past AA, still 26 in AA TEX Frisco, a reliever now.

 

FAILURE                        57. Wilfredo Rodriguez, lhp, Astros - pitched 3 MLB innings, out of baseball by 2006

 

MILD FAILURE            58. Mike Bynum, lhp, Padres - limited big league success, out of baseball by 2005

 

C - 4: 1 success, 3 failures

FAILURE                        21. J.R House, c, Pirates - AAAA player, now struggling with KC AAA Omaha

 

SUCCESS                        67. Brandon Inge, c, Tigers - a very useful C/3B player with power now. K's a lot, but his power is still around.  Will be at the all-star game this year, as well as the HR Derby.

 

FAILURE                        74. Dane Sardinha, c, Reds - still playing, poorly for Detroit and Detroit AAA Toledo.

 

FAILURE                        99. Joe Lawrence, c, Blue Jays - moved to 2B, one bad MLB season in 2002.  2000 was his best year, out of baseball by 2003.

 

 

1B - 7: 3 success, 3 mild failures, 1 incomplete

SUCCESS                        10. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees - a good 1B, terrific discipline.  not too much 1B power, but overall a good player

 

SUCCESS                        11. Carlos Pena, 1b, Rangers - decent success 2003-2005.  became a good player in 2007 to present.  he provides incredible power.

 

MILD FAILURE            22. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs - bad contact skills, walked a lot, lots of power.  out of baseball by 2006

 

MILD FAILURE            59. Jason Hart, 1b, Athletics - 15 MLB at-bats, out of baseball by 2006

 

MILD FAILURE            70. Eric Munson, 1b, Tigers - lots of power, converted to 3B, and converted to C, playing for OAK AAA Sacramento, never much big league success

 

VERY SAD                        77. Dernell Stenson, 1b/of, Red Sox - R.I.P.

 

SUCCESS                        89. Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, Marlins - AAAA until 2005, when he was traded to SD, and he has been only one of the best players in the MLB ever since.

 

2B - 3: 2 mild successes, 1 mild failure

MILD FAILURE            34. Jose Ortiz, 2b, Athletics - very limited MLB success, playing in Japan off and on since 2003

 

MILD SUCCESS            54. Marcus Giles, 2b, Braves - good player 2003-2005, bad player since, out of baseball now

 

MILD SUCCESS            93. Luis Rivas, 2b, Twins - not a great player, more defense than anything else.  playing for CHC AAA Iowa and is nothing more than a defensive spot-starter.

 

3B  - 10: 5 successes, 1 mild success, 4 mild failures

MILD SUCCESS            6. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres - a solid rookie 2002 season lead to nice 2003 and 2004 seasons.  Afterwards, his production dropped and he was out of baseball by 2007

 

MILD FAILURE            14. Drew Henson, 3b, Reds - gained 9 MLB at bats, was out of baseball by 2003.  Has had an equally unimpressive NFL career, but did manage to throw 1 TD (isn't that all you really need?).

 

SUCCESS                        36. Joe Crede, 3b, White Sox - rookie season in 2002.  decent contact and good power skills, bad discipline, injuries have also held him back, but is holding down the hot corner for the Twins after a 9-year career with CWS saw him hit 125 home-runs.

 

SUCCESS                        42. Albert Pujols, 3b, Cardinals - Flat out, the best player in MLB.  3B, LF, 1B, he'll play it all and he'll hit.  Minimal minuscule holes in his game.  Worst OPS season in his 9-season career, .955, enough said.

 

SUCCESS                        43. Aubrey Huff, 3b, Devil Rays - a very good corner infielder.  Decent BB rates and Ks under 100 times as a full-time starter.  Good power, good player overall.

 

SUCCESS                        55. Michael Cuddyer, 3b, Twins - moved to OF and has become a good hitter, 2008 was an off-year, but has OPS .750+ every other year (except rookie 2002 .740 OPS)

 

MILD FAILURE            60. Tony Torcato, 3b, Giants - never enjoyed MLB success, out of baseball by 2006

 

SUCCESS                        82. Xavier Nady, 3b, Padres - moved to OF. mediocre until 2006, with NYM and PIT.  Good player 2007 and 2008 with PIT and NYY, hurt in 2009.  Good hitter overall

 

MILD FAILURE            85. Lance Niekro, 3b, Giants - Awful discipline made him never enjoy MLB success. Trying to make it as a knuckleball pitcher with the GCL Braves.

 

MILD FAILURE            87. Tony Blanco, 3b, Red Sox - 1 bad MLB season, still playing, had a nice 2008 AA COL Tulsa season as a 26 year old.

 

SS - 12: 4 successes, 1 mild success, 6 mild failures, 1 failure

MILD FAILURE            16. Antonio Perez, ss, Mariners - never much MLB success, still playing with AAA ATL Gwinett

 

SUCCESS                        27. Alfonso Soriano, ss, Yankees - converted to 2B and later LF.  A great power/speed combo who Ks a lot.

 

MILD FAILURE            29. Wilson Betemit, ss, Braves - career backup corner infielder combo, playing with CWS now.

 

SUCCESS                        31. Jimmy Rollins, ss, Phillies - one of the best leadoff hitters and SS in MLB.  terrific speed and surprising power.

 

SUCCESS                        32. Felipe Lopez, ss, Blue Jays - an average SS, with 1.5 terrific seasons (2005 with CIN and 2008 with STL)

 

MILD FAILURE            46. D'Angelo Jimenez, ss, Yankees - career backup infielder, not too much MLB success, with Mexican league now

 

MILD FAILURE            62. Alex Cintron, ss, Diamondbacks - career backup infielder, not too much MLB success, with WAS now

 

MILD FAILURE            73. Luis Montanez, ss, Cubs - MiLB starter until 2008, nice 38 game appearance with BAL, 2009 provided 18 bad games with BAL, and back to the minors

 

FAILURE                        90. David Espinosa, ss/2b, Reds - never did anything outstanding in the minors and no MLB experience, still playing with AA SEA West Tennessee.

 

SUCCESS                        91. Miguel Cabrera, ss, Marlins - moved to 3B and 1B, one of the best pure hitters in MLB

 

MILD SUCCESS            94. Juan Uribe, ss, Rockies - powerful infielder, who does not walk.  Rookie season in 2001 and strongest year in 2004 (CWS - 23 HR - .833 OPS).  now a spot-starting UTIL infielder with SF (and destroyer of Jonathan Sanchez' perfect game, but oh well, no-hitters are good, and maybe Sanchez would have given up a hit without that error)

 

MILD FAILURE            95. Ramon Santiago, ss, Tigers - career backup infielder, not too much MLB success, with DET now

 

OF - 19: 8 successes, 3 mild success, 7 mild failures, 1 failure

SUCCESS                        1. Josh Hamilton, of, Devil Rays - we all know his story, he's struggling this year, I sure hope his body holds up.

 

MILD SUCCESS            2. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs - speed, check.  power, check.  walks, where?.  strikeouts, abundant.  A very odd player and very toolsy, now struggling with WAS

 

SUCCESS                        9. Ichiro Suzuki, of, Mariners - my favorite player growing up (see the 51?) massive contact skills, if he wants, he can hit it out, incredible defensive/arm player, doesn't walk an insane amount, but also doesn't K much.  loads of speed and baserunning ability.  model Japanese player

 

SUCCESS                        12. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays - very strong outfielder through 2006.  production has dropped since but he is still a valuable player, just vastly overpaid.

 

MILD FAILURE            18. Alex Escobar, of, Mets - in short MLB time, has been a useful backup.  out of baseball in 2008

 

MILD FAILURE            23. Joe Borchard, of, White Sox - huge power numbers never translated to MLB success, spent 2009 between SF AAA Fresno and ATL AAA Gwinett

 

MILD SUCCESS            24. Austin Kearns, of, Reds - power didn't translate to MLB, discipline did, and he has been a fringe 3rd outfielder

 

SUCCESS                        33. Adam Dunn, of, Reds - huge power, huge walks, huge Ks, huge guy.  been a good player with bad defense for some time now.  has mastered the 40 HR 100 RBI 100 BB 150 K season now

 

SUCCESS                        35. Brad Wilkerson, of, Expos - 2002 rookie season, very useful player through 2004 peak (32 HR) after his career has gone steadily down.  now he is with BOS AAA Pawtucket

 

SUCCESS                        38. Jack Cust, of/1b, Diamondbacks - adam dunn light after 2007, with fewer home-runs and more Ks.  proof that AAAA players can shed the label

 

MILD FAILURE            48. Dee Brown, of, Royals - good minor league player, bad MLB player, now with LA AAA Albuquerque

 

MILD SUCCESS            56. Kevin Mench, of, Rangers - Shrek had good 2004, 2005, and 2006 campaigns with TEX, but after his trade to MIL, his career.  biggest hat size in MLB

 

FAILURE                        64. Brian Cole, of, Mets - never played after 2000

 

SUCCESS                        72. Carl Crawford, of, Devil Rays - the face of the Rays for years has been a good speedster for the young team.

 

MILD FAILURE            75. Abraham Nunez, of, Marlins - not much MLB success in his 136 career games.  out of baseball by 2008

 

SUCCESS                        81. Ryan Ludwick, of, Athletics - coming out party in 2008 with 37 HR and .966 OPS.  before had bounced around, never fully hitting stride

 

MILD FAILURE            86. Chin-Feng Chen, of, Dodgers - 19 MLB games, out of baseball by 2005

 

MILD FAILURE            96. Keith Reed, of, Orioles - 6 MLB games, out of baseball by 2008

 

MILD FAILURE            98. Chris Snelling, of, Mariners - 93 MLB games, struggling with PIT AAA Indianapolis

 

 

Overall - 100: 30 successes, 15 mild successes, 34 mild failures, 19 failures, 2 incomplete

Well, at least for me, this has been a lot of fun, and eye-opening in most regards.  Obviously, high end prospects had a much higher success to failure rate.  The success:mild success:mild failure:failure system I used is extremely basic.  A success entailed a proven big-league player, with some years of stardom or near stardom.  A mild success entailed a proven big-league player, without the stardom, however many players were fringe (example: Marcus Giles). A mild failure was basically if they made it to MLB at all, but had no success (example: Keith Reed).  A failure entailed not making it to MLB at all.  a 30% success rate seems pretty solid for BaseballAmerica, but the 20 full failures and 34 mild failures demonstrates a high level of failure 45:54.   Right-handed pitchers are the most likely to fail (full) at 31.5% while third-base, shortstop, and first-base all did not produce a full-failure.  Third-base had the highest success rate with 50% (full) 60% (full + mild) while outfield produced a 57.8% success (full+mild) rate.  Out of the 19 outfielders, all but one reached MLB, and all 3 2B reached MLB, each with varying results.

 

REASONS FOR BAD CONCLUSIONS

There are many reasons why this test provides limited results.

*The success/mild success/mild failure/failure system is the most basic system created and too many fringe players were available

*Outfield was ranked in one category instead of corner and center or left, center, and right

*For statistical purposes, only basic stats were used

*I was 8 at the time of this list and so I do not know what experts were saying about them individually

*Some player values could have varied based not on offensive stats, but defense, but I could not recall each player's defensive worth

*I did not look up injury issues for most prospects, so some of the busts may be due to injuries

*Other things that I did not list.

 

*All stats courtesy of thebaseballcube.com

*Rankings courtesy of Baseball America