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grant76

Apr 01, 2008 Dec 18, 2009 17 838

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Let's talk about catchers



I'm going to display some ignorance here, because I don't know how to quantify catching intangibles.  So I'm just going to kick things off with my random thoughts and see where things go from there.

I think the future of catching for the Brewers is Jonathan Lucroy.  I don't see any area where Angel Salome has any significant advantage over him.  Lucroy currently has a line of .263/.379/.401.  The number that really jumps out is the OBP of .379.  If you are looking at the batting average, you are seeing a mediocre AA guy.  But if you look at his 62:53 BB/K ratio, you see a guy who has incredible plate discipline for a young player (or any player).

His arm strength has been described as average or fringy, but his quick release has him throwing out 40% of basestealers at AA, after nabbing 51% last year in A ball.  Salome had 33% and 26% at AAA and AA respectively.

Lucroy has a .989 fielding percentage.  Salome is at .979.  FWIW Kendall has thrown out 21% this year after 43% last year.  Kendall also has a .993 fielding percentage (.990 career).

I said all of that to say that everything that the Brewers do regarding catching should revolve around Jonathan Lucroy.  And it might just be time to consider moving him up to AAA, with the idea that he become the MLB starter next year.  Consider that over the last 14 days, his line is .400/.478/.575 - 1.053OPS.  Over the last 28 days its .333/.446/.522 - .968OPS

So what do you do with Salome?  He could be traded in the off season, but for now he could be promoted to the big club.  Yes that means a demotion for BCB favorite Mike Rivera, but it would be a chance to showcase Salome a bit, especially if the Brewers are not in contention.  Granted that craptastic line of .233/.300/.233 for the last 28 days is not going to fly, but Salome is still a valuable trade chip, and the Brewers should have moving him in the offseason as a highly regarded option. 

So Kendall/Salome finish out this year, with Lucroy and Rivera in AAA.  Trade Salome in the offseason for a pitcher or two.  Next year Lucroy starts with Kendall or Rivera backing him up.  Does that sound too aggressive?  Does Lucroy need to just play AA for this year and AAA all of next year?

Either way I think Kendall has to become a bench guy next year or perhaps just move on.  Whether its Salome or Lucroy, its time to promote a guy and take the growing pains they bring with them.

Poll
Because I can't resist adding a poll. The 2010 starting catcher for the Brewers should be:
Jason Kendall
17 votes
Angel Salome
58 votes
Jonathan Lucroy
26 votes
Mike Rivera
41 votes
Other (leave comment)
19 votes

161 votes | Poll has closed

19 comments  |  0 recs

A pitcher to trade for

Jake Peavy

What to like:  Career 3.27 ERA and 9.0 K/9 rate.  Consistently good for a long time, and only 28.

What not to like: Pitches in a pitcher-friendly park (3.84 ERA on the road).  Hefty salary

Salary: $11M - 2009, $15M - 2010, $16M - 2011, $17M - 2012, $4M buyout for 2013

What it would take:  It would probably start with Alcides Escobar, and include Manny Parra.  The Padres are shedding and payroll, and would look for cheap, young talent exclusively.

 

Erik Bedard:

What to like:  2.48 ERA this year.  8.9 K/9.  Was dominant in 2007, his last year with Baltimore. Seattle GM has ties to Milwaukee

What not to like:  Injury history.  Free agent after 2009.  Might be the most sought pitcher in July.

Salary: $7.75M - 2009

What it would take:  Jack Z knows the Brewers minor leagues like the back of his hand and would likely target a top prospect or two.

 

Matt Cain:

What to like: 2.31 ERA (3.61ERA career).  Younger than Tim Lincecum.  Inexpensive and signed through 2011.

What not to like: Very average K/9 (6.24) and BB/9 (3.66). 2nd place Giants may not be selling.

Salary: $2.9M - 2009,  About $4M for 2010 and $6M for2011

What it would take:  Giants need hitters including a 1B.  From a position of strength, they would probably seek Prince Fielder

 

Javier Vazquez:

What to like: Strike throwing (11 K/9 2 BB/9) workhorse (9 straight seasons with 32+ GS) is back in the National league where he has had the most success. 

What not to like: In 5 AL years before going to Atlanta, had a very mediocre 4.52 ERA.  Is 32.  Salary

Salary: $11.5M for 2009, and $11.5M for 2010.

What it would take:  Atlanta has a surplus of pitchers with Hudson coming back.  Need hitters including outfielders.  Their good outfielder is RF Jeff Francoeur, but Corey Hart might  still be a target.  Better trade for the off season when guys can change positions.

 

Others:

Cliff Lee is back to his CY Young ways and Bleacher Reports think he can be had for Angel Salome or Jonathan Lucroy and others. 

Roy Oswalt could be on the move, but I can't imagine that he will be traded within the division

Brad Penny and Jarrod Washburn will be free agents at the end of the year, and both seem like they could be available at the trading deadline.

 

 

 

 

Poll
Which pitcher do you hope the Brewers will try to trade for?
Jake Peavy
28 votes
Erik Bedard
25 votes
Matt Cain
30 votes
Javier Vazquez
13 votes
Cliff Lee
42 votes
Roy Oswalt
6 votes
Brad Penny
3 votes
Jarrod Washburn
1 votes
Other - Add comment
3 votes
Stay with what we have
22 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

32 comments  |  0 recs

A Tale of two Pitchers

I have a question about two pitchers and which you think is better.  I'll get into a bit of analysis, but lets start with each of these guys and their statistics for a half of 2008.

Pitcher A

16G

86.2 innings

8-2 

3.95ERA

46BB

68K

9HR

.312 babip

 

Pitcher B

16G

79.1 Innings

2-6

4.88ERA

29BB

79K

9HR

.356 babip

Continue reading this post »

1 comment  |  0 recs

Is this the list?

From Deadspin

OK, let's do a little test of the Internets today: In the last hour, we have been forwarded a list of players mentioned in the Mitchell Report by about 25 different people. Is this list substantiated? No. Is it from an MLB official? No. Do we have any reason to believe it's anything but random bunk? No. But it's what's making the rounds today, and we're less than three hours away, and if the list is wrong, we'll know real soon.

But, if you're curious, here's the list of players supposedly mentioned in the report, according to just about every email we've received. It could very likely be one of those Web urban legends that somehow got around, like when everyone thought Scott Baio was dead. It probably is, actually. (We mean, come on: The list has Rich Garces on it.) We'll know soon enough, but, for now, for "fun" ... After the jump.

(UPDATE: A source inside baseball says this list is "not entirely accurate." Emphasis ours.)

(SECOND UPDATE: WNBC apparently has the same list, some names of which have been disputed by baseball. But not all. And less than two hours to go!)

Brady Anderson
Manny Alexander
Rick Ankiel
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Aaron Boone
Rafael Bettancourt
Bret Boone
Milton Bradley
David Bell
Dante Bichette
Albert Belle
Paul Byrd
Wil Cordero
Ken Caminiti
Mike Cameron
Ramon Castro
Jose and Ozzie Canseco
Roger Clemens
Paxton Crawford
Wilson Delgado
Lenny Dykstra
Johnny Damon
Carl Everett
Kyle Farnsworth
Ryan Franklin
Troy Glaus
Rich Garces
Jason Grimsley
Troy Glaus
Juan Gonzalez
Eric Gagne
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
Jeremy Giambi
Jose Guillen
Jay Gibbons
Juan Gonzalez
Clay Hensley
Jerry Hairston
Felix Heredia, Jr.
Darren Holmes
Wally Joyner
Darryl Kile
Matt Lawton
Raul Mondesi
Mark McGwire
Guillermo Mota
Robert Machado
Damian Moss
Abraham Nunez
Trot Nixon
Jose Offerman
Andy Pettitte
Mark Prior
Neifi Perez
Rafael Palmiero
Albert Pujols
Brian Roberts
Juan Rincon
John Rocker
Pudge Rodriguez
Sammy Sosa
Scott Schoenweiis
David Segui
Alex Sanchez
Gary Sheffield
Miguel Tejada
Julian Tavarez
Fernando Tatis
Mo Vaughn
Jason Varitek
Ismael Valdes
Matt Williams
Kerry Wood.

Continue reading this post »

16 comments  |  0 recs

For the Masochists: 10 worst losses of the year.

10 Really bad losses.  You pick the worst.

Continue reading this post »

7 comments  |  0 recs

Turnbow Splits - Days of Rest

On days when Turnbow has had at least a day of rest:

33 games
30 innings
19 hits
7 ER
13 BB
37 K
0 HR
2.10 ERA

On days when Turnbow has had no rest:

19 games
16 innings
16 hits
15 ER
9 BB
21 K
4 HR
8.44 ERA

Ned talked about getting Linebrink to get some rest for Turnbow.  The numbers seem to back up the theory that Turnbow pitches better with at least a day off between appearances.

15 comments  |  0 recs

Ryan Braun closes in on ROY

Hunter Pence has hit the DL for 4 - 6 weeks with an injured wrist.  

Now I know that everyone here is familiar with Ryan Braun.  But I bet if you asked the average fan, they would be split at 50-50 between Pence and Braun for ROY.

Just a recap:

Braun     Pence

51 G          73 G
206 AB       312 AB
43 R          42  R
71 H          103 H
16 HR        12  HR
43 RBI       45  RBI
16 BB        10  BB
48 K          60  K
8  SB         8 SB   
.392 OBP      .355 OBP    
.670 SLG      .564 SLG   
.345 AVG      .330 AVG

1.062 OPS  .919 OPS

One reason that some people lean toward Pence is because he has played an extra month.  Now Braun will catch up in playing time and as long as he keeps ups the gaudy numbers, he should be a lock for best rookie.  

His HR numbers will clinch it.

8 comments  |  0 recs

We are halfway there!

81 games down 81 to go.  What are you happy about? Not so happy about?  I'll go first.

-- Happy --

Hart and Hardy (sounds like a soup).   These are the hitters that surprised me.  I know others have been high on Hart, but I had not been bullish on someone that projected to be a .280 20/20 guy.

The Uber Prospects  I know its early and that they may occasionally struggle, but Braun can rake.  And Yovani can mow.

Sheets  Kind of taken for granted, and hasn't been flashy, but the healthy ace has been very good.

The Closers  Turnow and Cordero have been very solid

-- Not So Happy --

Middle relief  Dessens and Aquino have highlighted some shaky middle relievers.

Weeks His window for taking the next big step is closing

Starters not named Sheets  A whole lot of average.

Outfield depth  If Jenkins could hit lefties, Mench might never play.  Gross is just a guy.

9 comments  |  0 recs

Will Ben Sheets be a 2007 All-star?

I got the Sporting News magazine in the mail today and the writer (Stan McNeal) listed who he thought would be on the rosters.  He listed Fielder as a starter and Hardy and Cordero, but no Sheets.

Pros
8-3 3.19 ERA
Winning team
Name recognition

Cons
Started a little slowly
Strikeouts are down.  Hasn't been real dominant.
Every team needs to be represented.
Might have 3 other Brewers on the team.

I'm guessing he sneaks in with an ERA of 2.98. Story is online as well http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=225733

Poll
Does Sheets make the team
Yes
23 votes
No
12 votes

35 votes | Poll has closed

10 comments  |  0 recs

The Draft - Call your shot! (poll)

Its tough to decide because they don't have any glaring needs.  The infield appears to be set for years.  The rotation has a lot of depth.

I guess catcher is a possibility.  Outfield maybe.

I'm guessing they just go with the best available.

I'm afraid of another power arm (like Parker).  I might go with a position player because we apparently ave a knack for grabbing quality position players.

Whereas our pitching draft history has been spotty at best.

Poll
Call your shot! Who will they pick?
Rick Porcello
0 votes
Ross Detwiler
1 votes
Mike Moustakas
2 votes
Daniel Moskos
0 votes
Josh Vitters
0 votes
The Rest of the Field
14 votes
David Price
1 votes
Jarrod Parker
2 votes
Matt Wieters
3 votes
Jason Heyward
1 votes

24 votes | Poll has closed

5 comments  |  0 recs