SB Nation User Blog: grant76

A pitcher to trade for

grant76 — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:51:16 -0000

What to like: Career 3.27 ERA and 9.0 K/9 rate. Consistently good for a long time, and only 28.

What not to like: Pitches in a pitcher-friendly park (3.84 ERA on the road). Hefty salary

Salary: $11M - 2009, $15M - 2010, $16M - 2011, $17M - 2012, $4M buyout for 2013

What it would take: It would probably start with Alcides Escobar, and include Manny Parra. The Padres are shedding and payroll, and would look for cheap, young talent exclusively.

Erik Bedard:

What to like: 2.48 ERA this year. 8.9 K/9. Was dominant in 2007, his last year with Baltimore. Seattle GM has ties to Milwaukee

What not to like: Injury history. Free agent after 2009. Might be the most sought pitcher in July.

Salary: $7.75M - 2009

What it would take: Jack Z knows the Brewers minor leagues like the back of his hand and would likely target a top prospect or two.

Matt Cain:

What to like: 2.31 ERA (3.61ERA career). Younger than Tim Lincecum. Inexpensive and signed through 2011.

What not to like: Very average K/9 (6.24) and BB/9 (3.66). 2nd place Giants may not be selling.

Salary: $2.9M - 2009, About $4M for 2010 and $6M for2011

What it would take: Giants need hitters including a 1B. From a position of strength, they would probably seek Prince Fielder

Javier Vazquez:

What to like: Strike throwing (11 K/9 2 BB/9) workhorse (9 straight seasons with 32+ GS) is back in the National league where he has had the most success.

What not to like: In 5 AL years before going to Atlanta, had a very mediocre 4.52 ERA. Is 32. Salary

Salary: $11.5M for 2009, and $11.5M for 2010.

What it would take: Atlanta has a surplus of pitchers with Hudson coming back. Need hitters including outfielders. Their good outfielder is RF Jeff Francoeur, but Corey Hart might still be a target. Better trade for the off season when guys can change positions.

Others:

Cliff Lee is back to his CY Young ways and Bleacher Reports think he can be had for Angel Salome or Jonathan Lucroy and others.

Roy Oswalt could be on the move, but I can't imagine that he will be traded within the division

Brad Penny and Jarrod Washburn will be free agents at the end of the year, and both seem like they could be available at the trading deadline.

Poll

Which pitcher do you hope the Brewers will try to trade for?

Jake Peavy

28 votes

Erik Bedard

25 votes

Matt Cain

30 votes

Javier Vazquez

13 votes

Cliff Lee

42 votes

Roy Oswalt

6 votes

Brad Penny

3 votes

Jarrod Washburn

1 votes

Other - Add comment

3 votes

Stay with what we have

22 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

A Tale of two Pitchers

grant76 — Mon, 04 May 2009 14:33:26 -0000

I have a question about two pitchers and which you think is better. I'll get into a bit of analysis, but lets start with each of these guys and their statistics for a half of 2008.

Pitcher A

16G

86.2 innings

8-2

3.95ERA

46BB

68K

9HR

.312 babip

Pitcher B

16G

79.1 Innings

2-6

4.88ERA

29BB

79K

9HR

.356 babip

If you are like me, you look at the first guy and you just hate the BB/9 and the K/9 - though 7k/9 is not terrible - the 5BB per 9 is. The babip is a little high, and you have to figure that he's not going to keep winning 8 out of 10 decisions with those peripherals.

The second guy shows some promise. He is striking out about 1 guy per inning. His walk rate is not terrific but better than the first guy. The HRs are a wash, and both guys have a LD% of 20% which is one reason that both have bad babip numbers.

But lets look at the results. The first guys wins and has a better ERA despite his mediocre stuff. The second guy looks like he should be a very decent pitcher but he is getting killed.

You've probably guessed that the two guys are the same guy. You may also have guessed that the first guy is Manny Parra circa 2008 (April-June) and the second guy is Manny Parra 2008 (July -October)

Counterintuitively, Parra got worse as he got better. Or got better as he got worse. Perhaps he started throwing too many strikes - 63% up from 59%, which sounds preposterous. His LD% and HR levels stayed the same, indicating that he wasn't getting hit any harder, but his babip jumped 45 points and his ERA went up by almost 1 full run.

Was 2nd half Manny just very unlucky? Or did he make a mistake by throwing more strikes?

Is this the list?

grant76 — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 17:29:37 -0000

From Deadspin

OK, let's do a little test of the Internets today: In the last hour, we have been forwarded a list of players mentioned in the Mitchell Report by about 25 different people. Is this list substantiated? No. Is it from an MLB official? No. Do we have any reason to believe it's anything but random bunk? No. But it's what's making the rounds today, and we're less than three hours away, and if the list is wrong, we'll know real soon.

But, if you're curious, here's the list of players supposedly mentioned in the report, according to just about every email we've received. It could very likely be one of those Web urban legends that somehow got around, like when everyone thought Scott Baio was dead. It probably is, actually. (We mean, come on: The list has Rich Garces on it.) We'll know soon enough, but, for now, for "fun" ... After the jump.

(UPDATE: A source inside baseball says this list is "not entirely accurate." Emphasis ours.)

(SECOND UPDATE: WNBC apparently has the same list, some names of which have been disputed by baseball. But not all. And less than two hours to go!)

Brady Anderson
Manny Alexander
Rick Ankiel
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Aaron Boone
Rafael Bettancourt
Bret Boone
Milton Bradley
David Bell
Dante Bichette
Albert Belle
Paul Byrd
Wil Cordero
Ken Caminiti
Mike Cameron
Ramon Castro
Jose and Ozzie Canseco
Roger Clemens
Paxton Crawford
Wilson Delgado
Lenny Dykstra
Johnny Damon
Carl Everett
Kyle Farnsworth
Ryan Franklin
Troy Glaus
Rich Garces
Jason Grimsley
Troy Glaus
Juan Gonzalez
Eric Gagne
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
Jeremy Giambi
Jose Guillen
Jay Gibbons
Juan Gonzalez
Clay Hensley
Jerry Hairston
Felix Heredia, Jr.
Darren Holmes
Wally Joyner
Darryl Kile
Matt Lawton
Raul Mondesi
Mark McGwire
Guillermo Mota
Robert Machado
Damian Moss
Abraham Nunez
Trot Nixon
Jose Offerman
Andy Pettitte
Mark Prior
Neifi Perez
Rafael Palmiero
Albert Pujols
Brian Roberts
Juan Rincon
John Rocker
Pudge Rodriguez
Sammy Sosa
Scott Schoenweiis
David Segui
Alex Sanchez
Gary Sheffield
Miguel Tejada
Julian Tavarez
Fernando Tatis
Mo Vaughn
Jason Varitek
Ismael Valdes
Matt Williams
Kerry Wood.

Looks like the known names + the suspected names. No Turnbow which should have been obvious. I think there will be more obscure names than high profile, but that's just my guess, based on who's been busted so far. I'm also curious about Geoff Jenkins. He was taking something (Creatine?) for a while IIRC

For the Masochists: 10 worst losses of the year.

grant76 — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 19:53:21 -0000

10 Really bad losses. You pick the worst.

April 4th vs. the Reds 5-11

Nursing a one run lead in the 7th, Greg Aquino comes in with two on and two out. Two hits, two walks, and a wild pitch later, the Reds had a 9-5 lead. Elmer Dessens allowed 2 more in the 8th, to round things out.

May 14th vs. the Phillies 6-8

In an attempt to save Cordero, Yost had Shouse pitch the 8th with the Brewers up 6-2. The first two hitters (both right handed) got hits and Turnbow came on. A walk, wild pitch, and a hit scored 3 making it 6-5. One out and two singles later, Prince Fielder threw to home too late on a grounder. Turnbow gave up another single and a sacrifice fly making it 8-6 Phillies.

June 9th vs. Rangers 3-4

The Brewers led 3-0 going into the bottom of the 9th and brought in Francisco Cordero to slam the door. After getting two quick outs, Cordero allowed a single and walk followed by 4 consecutive run-scoring singles, giving Cordero his first blown save and loss of the season.

June 29th vs. the Cubs 5-6

A five run first inning goes by the boards as the cubs score three in the bottom of the 9th off of Cordero, including a walk-off home run by Aramis Ramirez.

July 28th vs. the Cardinals 6-7

Manny Parra was great in his first major league start, but Cordero gave 4 hits and 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th culminating in a walkoff single by Ryan Ludwick.

August 5th vs. the Phillies 6-8

Matt Wise started the 9th with the Crew up 6-1. After an error by Wise and a home run, the Brewers brought in Cordero for the save. After two quick outs Cordero loaded the bases with a single and a pair of walks. Cordero hit Ryan Howard to make it 6-4 and then an Aaron Rowand ground ball got by Ryan Braun to tie the game. Manny Parra gave up two more in the 11 for the loss.

August 8th vs. the Rockies 4-19

Yovani Gallardo got rocked for 11 earned runs and 12 hits in 2 and 2/3. It was only the beginning of a 19-4 beatdown.

August 26th vs. the Giants 4-5

After jumping to an early 4-1 lead, the wheels fall off of a decent Dave Bush start. He gives up one in the 6th and 2 more in the 7th. Linebrink allows another in the 8th to complete the collapse, dropping the Crew to 65-65.

September 22nd vs. the Braves 3-4

Cordero blows his seventh game of the year by allowing a game tying home run to Scott Thorman with two outs in the 10th. Seth McClung and Brian Shouse allow the game winner in the 11th.

September 23rd vs. the Braves 4-7

Desperately needing a win the Brewers built a 4-1 lead entering the 7th. Claudio Vargas gave up 4 runs in the 7th and Chris Spurling gave up 2 more in the 8th to drop the Brewers to 3 ½ back with 7 games to go.

Turnbow Splits - Days of Rest

grant76 — Mon, 30 Jul 2007 14:07:59 -0000

On days when Turnbow has had at least a day of rest:

33 games
30 innings
19 hits
7 ER
13 BB
37 K
0 HR
2.10 ERA

On days when Turnbow has had no rest:

19 games
16 innings
16 hits
15 ER
9 BB
21 K
4 HR
8.44 ERA

Ned talked about getting Linebrink to get some rest for Turnbow. The numbers seem to back up the theory that Turnbow pitches better with at least a day off between appearances.

Ryan Braun closes in on ROY

grant76 — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 15:10:30 -0000

Hunter Pence has hit the DL for 4 - 6 weeks with an injured wrist.

Now I know that everyone here is familiar with Ryan Braun. But I bet if you asked the average fan, they would be split at 50-50 between Pence and Braun for ROY.

Just a recap:

Braun Pence

51 G 73 G
206 AB 312 AB
43 R 42 R
71 H 103 H
16 HR 12 HR
43 RBI 45 RBI
16 BB 10 BB
48 K 60 K
8 SB 8 SB
.392 OBP .355 OBP
.670 SLG .564 SLG
.345 AVG .330 AVG

1.062 OPS .919 OPS

One reason that some people lean toward Pence is because he has played an extra month. Now Braun will catch up in playing time and as long as he keeps ups the gaudy numbers, he should be a lock for best rookie.

His HR numbers will clinch it.

We are halfway there!

grant76 — Mon, 02 Jul 2007 19:29:22 -0000

81 games down 81 to go. What are you happy about? Not so happy about? I'll go first.

-- Happy --

Hart and Hardy (sounds like a soup). These are the hitters that surprised me. I know others have been high on Hart, but I had not been bullish on someone that projected to be a .280 20/20 guy.

The Uber Prospects I know its early and that they may occasionally struggle, but Braun can rake. And Yovani can mow.

Sheets Kind of taken for granted, and hasn't been flashy, but the healthy ace has been very good.

The Closers Turnow and Cordero have been very solid

-- Not So Happy --

Middle relief Dessens and Aquino have highlighted some shaky middle relievers.

Weeks His window for taking the next big step is closing

Starters not named Sheets A whole lot of average.

Outfield depth If Jenkins could hit lefties, Mench might never play. Gross is just a guy.

Will Ben Sheets be a 2007 All-star?

grant76 — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 02:04:14 -0000

I got the Sporting News magazine in the mail today and the writer (Stan McNeal) listed who he thought would be on the rosters. He listed Fielder as a starter and Hardy and Cordero, but no Sheets.

Pros
8-3 3.19 ERA
Winning team
Name recognition

Cons
Started a little slowly
Strikeouts are down. Hasn't been real dominant.
Every team needs to be represented.
Might have 3 other Brewers on the team.

I'm guessing he sneaks in with an ERA of 2.98. Story is online as well http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=225733

Poll

Does Sheets make the team

Yes

23 votes

No

12 votes

35 votes | Poll has closed

The Draft - Call your shot! (poll)

grant76 — Thu, 07 Jun 2007 17:44:02 -0000

Its tough to decide because they don't have any glaring needs. The infield appears to be set for years. The rotation has a lot of depth.

I guess catcher is a possibility. Outfield maybe.

I'm guessing they just go with the best available.

I'm afraid of another power arm (like Parker). I might go with a position player because we apparently ave a knack for grabbing quality position players.

Whereas our pitching draft history has been spotty at best.

Poll

Call your shot! Who will they pick?

Matt Wieters

3 votes

Jason Heyward

1 votes

Rick Porcello

0 votes

Ross Detwiler

1 votes

Mike Moustakas

2 votes

Daniel Moskos

0 votes

Josh Vitters

0 votes

The Rest of the Field

14 votes

David Price

1 votes

Jarrod Parker

2 votes

24 votes | Poll has closed

Revisiting Bill Hall

grant76 — Wed, 30 May 2007 15:28:13 -0000

There are a few items that I would like to look at today, challenging conventional Bill Hall wisdom.

1) Bill is trying too much to hit the opposite way.

Billy has always pulled ground balls to left and has been a spray fly ball hitter. That is also the case this year. His hitting chart shows that his past hitting patterns are still in effect

2) Bill is not walking as much.

This is true. Though if he were to walk at last year's rate he would only have 4 more walks and his OBP would be only about .010 points higher.

In fact, though his walks ans K's are down, his BB/K% is still a bit below average and largely consistent as seen here

3) Bill is grounding out more. This is very true, and this is probably affecting his slugging because his HR/FB rate has also dropped.

You can see that his FB% is down to 41% from last year's 48%. His HR's per FB is down from 19.4% to 10.9%. It is this combination of things that is killing his slugging percentage, and to a lesser extent his OBP.

134 balls in play.
55 fly balls
6 HR

Using last years percentages he would have
134 balls in play
64 fly balls
12 HR

If Hall had the same FB% and same HR/FB% as last year his SLG% would be at about .560, and his OPS would be about .900.

4) Hall was due to regress a bit.

Sadly this also appears to be true.

Last year Hall hit .270/35HR/85RBI/.899OPS

Projected Bill James .268/24HR/71RB/.815OPS
Projected CHONE .265/26HR/86RBI/.820OPS
Projected Marcel .276/23HR/73RBI/.836OPS
Projected ZiPS .268/24HR/72RBI/.830OPS

On pace 2007 .256/20HR/67RBI/.743OPS

Here is my guess. And its only a guess. The smart guys that project this stuff thought that the HR's were an aberration. The HR/FB% of 19.4% put him in company with some heavy hitters.

He was projected to keep the rest of his numbers constant (adjusted for having about 10 fewer home runs), and even have fewer walks and strikeouts. So basically he is just a little worse than projected by the experts.