Tre's note (doing a Fooch impression): Solid post here by Grant that I felt was worthy of moving up to the front page. Also, I'm short.

As fans and pundits alike have been looking more at the statistical side of the NFL, people have become more familiar with the concept of regression to the mean. This concept suggests that unless there is some significant explanatory factor not captured by statistics, over time, statistics that look strange (exceptionally high or low) will generally change to be less strange (more like the average).

The reason I bring this up is that it seemed to me that the 2011 49ers scored an inordinately low number of "cheap points"--that is, non-offensive points--in 2011. When I had a look at this in a more detailed way, the numbers bore out. Follow me after the jump to see how this affects the 49ers as we look forward to the playoffs.

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Fooch's Note: Excellent write-up on a topic that has been at the heart of many discussions in recent weeks. Thanks Grant.

In the run-up to the 49ers game vs. the New York Giants, much was made about whether Alex Smith is or is not an "elite" quarterback, partially because players, coaches, and media-types have all noticed that Alex has not been asked to do a lot, and partially because Eli himself has raised the question of what elite quarterback play means in today's NFL.  Eli has wanted to claim that he belongs in the same category as Brady, Peyton, Brees and Aaron Rodgers.  Most have argued that Alex is not elite because he's a different type of QB--he's a game manager.

What this whole debate has missed is the fact that the fundamental distinction is not between elite QBs and game managers; it's between Artist QBs and Workmanlike QBs.  QBs of either type can become elite, depending on how they are used in a system, and how they perform under pressure.

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Fooch's Note: Thanks to Grant for putting this FanPost together. This was an extremely interesting play call and I am curious to see if it is utilized moving forward.

Everybody knows that an NFL coach's life is spent in the film room.  But the smartest coaches will use this very fact against their opposition by showing one thing and then doing another.  The photo series that I've posted as the first comment depicts the second offensive play the Niners ran against the Redskins, a simple handoff to Kendall Hunter that gains 5 yards. What interests me isn't so much the effectiveness of this run play as the effect it has on the defense, and that it just might set up a counter QB option run play that can be run out of the same set.

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@Tre9er, Ninjames and I participated in a Twitter mock draft over the past week and were responsible for the 49ers picks. You can check out all of the picks at http://mockthree.wordpress.com

Overall, we were pretty pleased at least with the range and values we got with the picks we ended up making, though we were hampered somewhat by the fact that we always ended up picking after 11:00 PM, a time when many of our would-be trade partners were sleeping or off-line.

I've posted the picks and some of Tre's analysis after the jump.  Let us know what you think!

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Tre9er's note: Solid piece here. Grant and I (as well as Drawnitsud) tossed around some of the degrees of separation between Mallett and Harbaugh, via Michigan, this weekend.  Let's hear it, folks!

The title alone will probably earn me a bunch of flames, but I'm going to try this out: I'm going to develop a conspiracy theory that will explain why it would make sense if the 49ers would draft Ryan Mallett.  This is strictly hypothetical, and you should know that I also have my doubts about Mallett.  He looks like he has concrete boots on his feet, he makes questionable decisions, and he has poor footwork and thus relies on his arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows...and that's all without mentioning the possible drug issues that cloud all discussions of Mallett's NFL future.  I will grant you that all of that is tremendously worrisome.  In fact, I hate this QB draft class and am not sold on any of the QBs (except maybe Ponder if his decision-making improves and if his arm is actually healthy--but that's another story).  Drew K's take on Mallett is also worth a read, so check that out.

I do hope, however, to draw a few connections and to build something of a case for, specifically, *Harbaugh* taking on Ryan Mallett as his Quarterback Of The Future for your San Francisco 49ers.  

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As everyone on this site will agree, the 49ers QB play didn't measure up to a winning standard in 2010, and while some of us are happy about the way this has led to Singletary's departure and Jim Harbaugh's hiring (finally), the question remains: who will quarterback the 2011 49ers? 

Josh Johnson is currently a backup quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have Josh Freeman entrenched as their starting QB and QBOTF.  He has had very little game action (profile here) but appears to have some of the physical tools you need to be an NFL quarterback.

Johnson was the quarterback of the I-AA University of San Diego Toreros under Jim Harbaugh from 2004-2007 (a full time starter from '05 through '07) and put up some ridiculous numbers, including a 42TD, 1 Int senior season. 

With all this as preamble, I collected some links about Johnson that I've posted below.  It would be interesting to see if the Niners took a look at Johnson because of Harbaugh's familiarity with him.  It bears noting that the Niners couldn't complete a trade for Johnson unless the players and league come to terms on a new CBA before March 3.  Still, I'd be happy with the team investing something like a 4th rounder in the upcoming draft if the team was convinced about him.

On to the Links!

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I take the following axioms to be self-evidently true:

1) Winning the turnover battle correlates to winning football games.

2) Good teams win the turnover battle.

3) Very good teams can lose the turnover battle and still win football games.

In the 35 games the Niners have played under Mike Singletary, the Niners have performed poorly (won fewer games than they should've) in games in which they have a positive takeaway/giveaway ratio and performed very poorly in games that in which they have had a negative takeaway/giveaway ratio.  My curiosity about this issue was peaked when Football Outsiders came out and predicted that the Niners would win only 5 games because their streak (from 2009) of high takeaway games would not continue. 

I ran the numbers over the past 35 games (after the jump), and the quick hit summary looks like this:

1) When the Niners have a takeaway/giveaway ratio of +2 or better, their record is 7-2

2) When the Niners are +1, their record is 2-0

3) When neither team gets a turnover advantage, their record is 4-3

4) When the Niners are -1, their record is 2-7

5) When the Niners have a takeaway giveaway ratio of -2 or worse, their record is 1-7

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Well it's a bit late to post this, with the Thursday game already in the books.  But better late than never, I always say!

Week 10 features some tasty match-ups with huge fantasy potential: Texans-Jags and Lions-Bills could be some of the most exciting "Nobody-Stops-Anybody" match-ups of the season, even with Stafford out for the Lions (with an Alex Smith) and Aaron Kampman out for the Jags (torn ACL).  At least you'll be able to see the Texans-Jags game (unlike Lions-Bills game--which is blacked out!)

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I know that this comparison may be a little bit crazy (OK, maybe a lot crazy), but hear me out.  With a hat tip to Bill Simmons, it's crucial that we not overreact after Week 1's debacle.  His words?  "home dogs + raucous crowd + [Defensive] TD + dumb turnovers + bad weather + [Jimmy Raye] = FLUKE UPSET!!!!"

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Here’s how my final 53 looks prior to the Niners’ Sunday game against the Raiders:

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Congratulations on Measure J!  I for one am excited about the new stadium, and hope that the process of securing the rest of the financing can go through and that the process of getting the stadium built can go as quickly and as responsibly as possible.

I'm writing to ask about whether you have consulted acoustical engineers in the stadium design process.  It's no secret that the acoustical design of Seattle's Qwest Field has helped to provide the Seahawks with a significant home field advantage.  There is a demonstrable correlation between crowd noise and false-start penalties, and it has also been demonstrated that run-heavy offenses can struggle in noisy environments due to the fact that not all the offensive linemen will operate in sync due to the difficulty in hearing the snap.  Moreover, as wide receivers are typically furthest from the quarterback at the snap, crowd noise can make it difficult for them to explode off the line and be into their breaks at the right moment.  And this is all aside from the psychological effect of playing in a hostile environment.

In general, I like the design of the stadium as it has been mocked up.  In particular, I like the fact that the open air (non-suite) fans are as close to the field as possible, and that they are clustered around the field on three sides.  I am not an acoustical engineer, but I believe consulting a firm to see how the current design could be tweaked to maximize the benefit would be worthwhile as it would contribute to the ongoing success of the 49ers.

This is actually a preemptive strike on the inevitable fanpost that will come out bearing the same title the moment they read this news story--except that this fanpost is not meant seriously.

Thomas hasn't been the same guy since he left Baltimore, but I'm sure there will be those who are interested in the guy because they've played with him in Madden, or because they know his name, or because he played for other successful defenses.  The fact is that he has little to offer at this point in his career, and would be way overpriced.  Besides all this, the NIners actually have young players who haven't yet peaked at the pass-rushing OLB spot, and signing Thomas would only hinder their development.

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This is a breakdown and analysis of the situations in which the Niners got their sacks in the 2009 season.  Overall, the team tied for 4th in the league with 44 sacks.  My methodology here was the following:

1) search through the game play-by-play recaps for times when the Niners got a sack
2) look up that instance in the game in question
3) Note the time, down and distance
4) Analyze the offensive and defensive formations including the Niners’ personnel
5) Describe the play as it developed
6) Explain why it happened beyond all the flying bodies—i.e. assign praise or blame.

The reason why I wanted to do this was because I wanted to have something other than a nebulous sense of who did what in terms of rushing the passer in the 2009 season.  This is volume II: I wrote up a Sack Tracker last year.
I know this is a ridiculously long post, but it did take some effort, so I’ve left some thoughts I was left with at the bottom of the post in the hopes that people will read my analysis--which of course forms the basis for my thoughts.  I appreciate the rec’s and the votes in the poll, but I’m most interested in having a good and informed conversation about the Niners’ pass rush in 09 and looking forward.

Let’s dive in!

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