San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns

US Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ
Wednesday, April 25th 9:30 PM Spurs Time
TV: ESPN - RADIO: WOAI 1200

With the top seed in the West already secured, the San Antonio Spurs head into their final games in Phoenix and San Fransisco with the freedom to compete or coast high above the fray. With last night's 100-88 loss to the Jazz, the Suns have fallen short of their playoff aspirations and this season finale will be a bit of an anti-climax for the home crowd. The Spurs are playing for practice and Finals homecourt while the Suns only have pride to play for. Even if SA's big three rest and Phoenix's veterans play, momentum and motivation could keep the Spurs rolling and collecting wins that they can still put to use with the right eventual playoff opponent.

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San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers

STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA
9:30 PM Spurs Time, April 17, 2012
TV: TNT - RADIO: WOAI 1200

When the Spurs play in LA tonight they'll face a team defying conventional wisdom and NBA natural law. The Lakers are finally focused and playing the best all-around basketball they've played all season. They're on a three-game streak of satisfying wins, all against western playoff competition... all with Kobe Bryant sidelined. LA has some fierce competition for the three seed and it seems urgency and adversity brings out the best in them, with or without Jordan Light. The Spurs will be motivated to protect the edge we have over the Thunder for the top seed and by last Wednesday's embarrassing loss. Any discord or drama we can inadvertently introduce into the Lakers' locker-room will be appreciated by the rest of the Western Conference as well.

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San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies

AT&T Center, San Antonio TX
Thursday, April 12 2012, 7:30 PM Spurs Time
TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com - RADIO: WOAI 1200

Tonight the Spurs host the Memphis Grizzlies for the fourth and final meting before the post-season starts. The Grizzlies rudely bounced the Spurs from last year's playoffs, but this year San Antonio has won all three match-ups and kicked off the season and a big streak with wins over Memphis. While 'da NBA Bears are wrestling both Los Angeles teams for seeds three through five, the Spurs and Gregg Popovich have one of the top two basically secured. Since it's not clear if Pop cares which we end up with the Grizz could have a big advantage in star-minutes.

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San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets

New Orleans Arena
Sat, March 24, 2012, 7:00 p.m. Spurs Time
TV: FSSW - RADIO: WOAI 1200 AM

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San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

American Airlines Center, Dallas TX
March 17, 2012 8:00 PM Spurs Time
TV: NBA TV, Fox Sports SW - RADIO: WOAI 1200

Tonight the Spurs play the Mavs in Dallas, the third game of the season series and the first of a two-part mini-series that concludes at the AT&T Center next Friday. With the win-loss records and remaining schedules being what they are these teams can't help but determine each others' destinies. The Mavs could hurt us directly by taking these games or indirectly with losses to LA or Memphis, as they play both teams twice more. If the Spurs win both and sweep the season series (that Jan 29th overtime loss counts as a moral victory) Dallas will be barely hanging onto a playoff spot with the worst of their schedule still to come.

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San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks

AT&T Center
Wednesday March 7, 7:30 PM Spurs Time
TV: FOX Southwest - RADIO: WOAI 1200

The Spurs faced a soft February schedule and capitalized with an eleven game win streak. They're making up for it with March's games, featuring playoff competition like tonight's match-up against the New York Knicks. They're the likely eight seed in the East but a real threat now that the core of Stoudemire, Anthony, Chandler and Lin is healthy. Despite some bruises, San Antonio has its players back on the court too and has the home-court and rest advantage over a back-to-backing New York. Missing an opportunity like tonight would be wasting the 11-2 February and risking a slide back into the playoff scrum.

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San Antonio Spurs @ Philadelphia 76ers

Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
February 8th, 2012, 6:00 PM Spurs Time
TV: Fox Sports SW - RADIO: WOAI 1200

The Spurs are in Philadelphia to challenge the red hot 76ers in a showdown between the third place team in the West and the third place team in the East. Tonight's match kicks off four games in a row in the Eastern Conference for SA, who has only played three such games so far. While Philly is a legit three seed regardless of tonight's outcome, the Spurs still have some work to do to prove they belong that high. Coming back west with at least three wins out of four will help us hang on through Manu Ginobili's eventual return and the All-Star break.

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San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets

SBC Center, San Antonio
Tuesday, February 1st - 7:30 PM Spurs Time
TV: Fox Sports SW - RADIO: WOAI

The Spurs face a very familiar opponent tonight when they host the Rockets for the fourth and final time this regular season. Houston has crawled back from a 2-6 start, thanks in part to home wins against the silver and black, and tonight they'll be trying to overtake us in the hot mess that is the Western Conference standings. San Antonio's got to counter the high-scoring Rockets while building some consistency for the Hornets and Thunder rematches that follow.

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San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic

Amway Center, Orlando Florida
January 18, 6:00 PM Spurs Time
TV: Fox Sports Southwest - RADIO: WOAI

Experience and preparation will clash with exhaustion and the luck of the bounce when the Spurs face the Magic in Orlando tonight. Either club could use the win, with the Spurs 0-5 on the road and the 10-3 Magic trying to sway Dwight Howard into rescinding his trade demand. Quality coaching means the effort will be there, but both teams played last night so expect some uglyball moments as well. Evenly matched opponents with evenly tired legs means San Antonio needs to steal this baby, however they can, before it's back to the Western Conference grind.

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San Antonio Spurs @ Milwaukee Bucks

Bradley Center
January 10, 7:00 PM Spurs Time
TV: FOX Sports Southwest - RADIO: WOAI

After a third quarter collapse in Oklahoma City, the San Antonio Spurs will try again for their first road win when they play the Bucks tonight in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 2-6 but have been competitive in losses and benefit from Andrew Bogut's return. Milwaukee's solid defense is up against an elite offense even with Manu Ginobili out, and if they can't make a brick-fest of it we'll have our win and they'll be further mired in another slow start. Lineups, game preview and prediction when you take the jump.

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San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers

AT&T Center

December 27, 2011 8:30 PM Spurs Time

TV: Fox Sports SW (Area depending) - RADIO: WOAI

The NBA is suddenly back, and after two nights of rivalries and rematches we're settling into a familiar procession of conference matchups that we're used to seeing four times a year. Grizzlies - Spurs and Mavs - Heat were relevant pairings last year, but combination like Jazz - Lakers and Clippers - Spurs have been filling up the regular season schedule for decades. Pre-season, post-season and season are compressed this year and fans haven't had much time to adjust to the changes in team rosters. Rarely does true change come along, and trivia like Vince Carter to Dallas deserves to be buried under an avalanche of games, but we need to stop and consider these Clippers before the standings take shape. If these kids stay healthy and if Vinny Del Negro can teach them to play defense, they'll be favored to win a playoff series for the first time in team history.

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Here's a pretty awesome chart of the 82 game season that shows who won and by how much from DanielM at Dstats. 

The bars with a bold red tip (bars on the left side of zero) are losses.  Wins are bars with a green tip on the positive side of zero.

What makes these charts awesome is they adjust for how much rest each team has, where the game is played, and the relative strengths of the teams (as measured by full-season performance).  The Jan. 5th game against the Celtics shows up as a 'good loss' because the C's had a rest advantage and home-court advantage.  It doesn't help us in the win column but we performed well enough to have a chance at the end of the game, and according to the chart we played well enough to smoke an average team without advantages that night.

via Dstats

The trend line shows no real direction one way or the other to the season.  That may or may not be the truth of the matter, with the resting of players, rotation changes and injuries that should or shouldn't be factors.  But it does appear to fly in the face of the attitude that the Spurs faded in the second half of the season.

When the playoffs start for the Spurs they'll be up against an unfamiliar opponent in the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that may lack star power and national attention but has plenty of talent, depth and grit.  Memphis is an elite rebounding club that struggles to defend and score in three-point territory.  They might be a good preparation for the Lakers for that reason, but that also gives them the potential to counter a Spurs team that is trying to find the perfect balance of threes and the familiar drive and screen games.

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The NBA's North-by-Northwest team blazed into San Antonio Monday night, overcoming the noble efforts of a patchwork Spurs team to win 100-92 and bring the league's best record one game closer to Earth.  "The only winning move is not to play", Pop told starters Manu Ginobili (who was truly unable to go), Tony Parker (who probably could have gone) and Antonio McDyess (who could use the rest but that's about it).  Despite the pre-game white flag that represented, the replacements who did suit up almost pulled a Cinderella on the bigger, more talented Blazers before late-game errors led to another painful collapse.  For those of us obsessively counting that's four fourth-quarter disappointments in a row since Tim Duncan was put on the inactive list.

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On the surface of it, this should be a career year for the Red Rocket.  The Spurs are fiffy-five and thirteen on the strength of a three-point offense, and nobody shoots the three-ball like Matt Bonner.  Team success, a crazy 3pt percentage, and those Coach B videos - what's not to like?  Just like Evita, however, there need to be some stanzas about his Rainbow Tour being a qualified success. 

Among Spurs who get a significant amount of minutes Bonner is last in Usage Rate, which measures how many shots, free throws and turnovers come from each player on a per-possession basis.  He attempts the same number of field goals per 36 minutes as Tiago Splitter or Antonio McDyess, but gets to the line very rarely. 

The three-point barrage is impressive - he makes nearly three per 36 minutes (most on the team) and shoots 'em at 50%.  You don't get to heights like that without being very selective on your shots, and his low turnover rate shows that when he does pass up the three he can make smart decisions with the ball.

It still seems a shame not to make the most out of our most efficient option.  Manu and Gary Neal attempt 6.6 threes per 36 minutes to Bonner's 5.5 attempts - Manu takes threes off the dribble and behind screens, but Neal gets his attempts high by getting out in transition and making himself open and available.  If Bonner could attempt an additional one or two three pointers a game without his percentage dropping much it would amount to free points. 

Here on PTR I've seen a lot of people point out his improvements when it comes to team defense.  This is something that's hard to get to with statistics but is extremely important in the playoffs.  Improved or not I don't think he's in McDyess's class of defenders.  There are always going to be trade-offs when you give minutes to a 'specialist' like Bonner in the post-season so it's a matter of getting the most out of the positive things Coach B brings to the team.

I'll leave you with this tidbit table of how many field goals Matt Bonner attempts per 36 minutes this season:

From ESPN Dallas Mavericks Blog:

The Dallas Mavericks have lost five of eight games with all five coming against potential playoff foes.

[Although auditioning for anything past first-round opponent would be jinxing it at this point.]

In just the last week, the Mavs have dropped highly anticipated measuring-stick games at home to the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. In the process they lost their long-held grip on the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference standings to the Lakers.

[The Lakers didn't even notice, thanks to a slap-fight of their own against the T-Wolves, their complete disdain for the Mavericks and general obviousness.]

This downturn comes after a super run of 18 wins in 19 games with perfection ruined only by a buzzer-beater at the Denver Nuggets.

"What do you want us to do? You cant be negative now," Dirk Nowitzki said. [, coldly ignoring the rules of English grammar]. "We still have a month left in the season and we're trying to make a little run and take some momentum into the playoffs and go from there. But, this is too early to pack it in now." ["The first round, probably" he added.]

How the slide started, coughing up a 17-point, second-half lead at home to the Memphis Grizzlies on March 6, stings more than the losses to the Lakers and NBA-best Spurs, Jason Terry said. ["Duh", he added.  "Adonis DNA".  And, after catching his breath, he shouted, "I can't stop talking!"]

"It's just disheartening when you lose to somebody like Memphis," Terry said. "I mean that’s a team your’e [sp] supposed to beat. Hey, this one here, we wanted to win it. It didn’t happen for us and we've got to stay positive and we got to find our rhythm back. We have to have a rhythm to how we play and that’s when we’re at out best and obviously it's not there for whatever reason." [Terry is of course referring to the several games of Rock Band played in the locker room after the 97-91 loss.]

For the record, the Grizzlies, who currently hold down the eighth-seed, took the season series with the Mavs, 3-1, including two one-point wins in Dallas. [Mark Cuban is on the record describing it as "going to be the most exciting first-round upset ever".] Not that bulletin-board material means much in professional sports [except for Jason Terry], but if the two teams meet in the first round of the playoffs, Memphis will surely remember just how disheartening it is to lose to the Grizz. [If Memphis remembers what it's like to lose to the Grizz, they have a time machine and some pretty funny ideas about the best way to use a time machine.]

Tell me what you think on this topic:

Can the Mavs catch up?

My thinking is still "probably not".  We play the Mavs on March 18th, five games down the road (six for them).  Their hope is to gain a game on us before that meeting, win it, and then make up another game or two before the end of the month.  Beware the Ides of March indeed.

Dallas needs us to lose two of our four games before the show-down on the 18th.  We've got Detriot and the Kings at home followed by a @Houston SEGABABA and @Miami.  This is their schedule:

@Hornets

Knicks SEGABABA

Lakers

@Blazers

@WarriorsSEGABABA

If we lose two and they can get through it with just one loss, and then beat us on the 18th, the lead is down to three games.  If the Spurs go four-of-four leading up to the Dallas game, or the Mavericks slip on a 'easy' one above, the throw-down loses some of its importance. And after the @Dallas game the Spurs only have fourteen regular season games left - the Mavericks need to get started if their regular season is going to be about the one seed and not the fight over number two.

So it's still up to the Spurs.  Win the next three, which includes a tough SEGABABA in Houston against a team trying to make the playoffs, and we control our own destiny.  Stumble on the way to the Mavericks game and losing the one seed is suddenly a legit prospect.

The San Antonio Spurs show confidence and clout in a Valentine's Day thrashing of the New Jersey Nets, 102-85.  Tim Duncan and Tony Parker led the way in the first half, and Manu Ginobili sealed the deal with two three-pointers in the fourth to claim another convincing win.  As the Spurs starting lineup routed their counterparts for the second straight game, San Antonio can claim some momentum leading up to the road trip finale against Chicago on Thursday.

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1. What's with Manu's shooting slump?

Manu hasn't been shooting the ball well lately.  In November he shot 49% FG%, but in December January and the last 10 games it's been 40%, 42%, and 40%.

There's no stand-out trend when you break it down further.  In December he started missing threes, in January he missed a bunch of long twos.  Recently numbers from that zone have gone back up but he's been unable to hit the runners, leaners and fading jumpshots that make up the <10 feet-but-not-at-rim category and he's having trouble getting to the line.

When you look this closely at shooting percentages they'll bounce up and down for no reason beyond variance and the differences between the 15-game stretches you're looking at.  Since his overall offense is still elite I think it's fair to call the slump just a bad streak.

2. What is this team's weakness?

The axiom goes, teams improve the most when they shore up a weakness rather than adding a redundant strength to an area where they're already strong.  So what can the Spurs improve based on this year's games?

-Rebounding?  The Spurs are the eighth-best defensive rebounding club and are nineteenth-best at offensive rebounding.  Nineteen sounds low, but Popovich teams have always failed to get offensive rebounds.  Last year's ranking of thirteen was the first time we'd been out of the very bottom of the rankings in a long time, probably thanks to new additions McDyess and Blair. 

-3 point defense?  Well, we're not good at stopping the threes from going in, but we allow the fewest 3pt attempts per FG attempt of any team.  When you combine the two and look at just 3 point makes allowed, the Spurs are right in the middle of the pack.  If anything we're on the stingy side of things when it comes to 3pt defense (9th fewest makes per game).

-Turnovers?  That's the one to improve, although maybe not in the way you think.  The Spurs protect the ball just fine (eighth lowest TO rate).  But our early ability to force turnovers from our opponents has faded lately.  We've slipped to below average (17th) in forced turnover rate and our distinct advantage in the TO department is mostly gone.

Does Pop work Anderson or Splitter in to the playoff planning or stick with the current core?

James Anderson and Tiago Splitter have both had impressive moments in a season that overall has been more about setbacks than success for these rookies.  There's a real need for each on the playoff roster as well, since RJ needs a backup three and a taller frontcourt player would complement the Bonner, Blair and Dice squad.  On the other hand, getting consistent rotations and as much practice as possible for the key lineups is probably a high priority too. 

No matter what happens, Splitter and Anderson will probably end up as the number ten and eleven guys in terms of minutes played on the playoff roster.  The number ten and eleven guys do not have a good history of contributing on the Spurs but this could be the exception. Time spent to get these guys into sync with the rest of the team could be spent on refining the more-used lineups, and so there might be some hard choices to make when we hit the let's-think-about-the-playoffs phase of the year.

Emanuel David Ginobili

Manu, El Contusion, Obi-Wan, The Sickness, The Savant, The Sinister, Narigón, The Jordanesque

Role: Energy source, crafty scorer, Hope-crushing dagger-smith, Defensive pest, distributor, basketball artist

Very few basketball players will ever be cheered or booed as loudly as Manu Ginobili.  Spurs fans would have fallen in love with his creative, brazen brand of basketball even if it wasn't a key ingredient in championships.  To us his name sounds like poetry (when they announce it correctly).  In other Western Conference cities however, he's every bit the villain the Spurs never had during the Young Duncan Era.

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With Manu starting and everybody healthy, the big three are sharing the court an unprecedented amount of time this season.  Here's how it compares to seasons past:

2011

Ginobili w/ Duncan, 69%. w/ Parker 65%. with both 59%
Duncan w/ Manu, 73%. w/ Parker 89%. with both 64%
Parker w/ Manu, 62%. w/ Duncan 80%. with both 57%

2010

Ginobili w/ Duncan, 62%.  w/ Parker 35%. with both 27%
Duncan w/ Manu 55% w/ Parker 54%. with both 24%
Parker w/ Manu 44% w/ Duncan 76%. with both 33%

2009

Ginobili w/ Duncan 68%. w/ Parker 65%. with both 52%
Duncan w/ Manu 31% w/ Parker 73%. with both 25%
Parker w/ Manu 31% w/ Duncan 75%. with both 25%

2008

Ginobili w/ Duncan 64%. w/ Parker 51%. with both 41%
Duncan w/ Manu 55%. w/ Parker 71%. with both 35%
Parker w/ Manu 51%. w/ Duncan 82%. with both 40%

2007

Ginobili w/ Duncan 68% w/ Parker 62%. with both 53%
Duncan w/ Manu 51%. w/ Parker 79%. with both 40%
Parker w/ Manu 51%. w/ Duncan 86%. with both 44%

Timothy Theodore Duncan

Tim, The Foundation, Big Fun

Role: Big in all seasons, Two-way game without weakness, anchor

This is not the book on Tim Duncan and the Spurs.  That subject would require entire sections of the Library of Congress.  This is just the extra-heavy pamphlet on what a Tim Duncan season looks like in box scores, and the different ways we have of evaluating players now.  If your idea of fun is tables and tabulations, historical comparisons and classifications, then take a load off and get out your slide rule.

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Bench scoring and second-half defense turned a 51-43 halftime deficit into a single-digit win as the Spurs overcame the Milwaukee Bucks, 91-84.  San Antonio used some timely Bonner buckets (both outside and inside the arc) and a touch of Manu magic to finish off the jet-lagged Bucks.  Rest didn't seem to be an issue as Duncan, McDyess and Ginobili all played well, and the team donated just five turnovers while only allowing the Bucks to shoot 39% from the field.

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[Note:  This was posted a couple of days ago (hence the delayed record) but was quickly buried under an avalanche of posts, so people might have missed it.  It's very much worth the read.  -- s&bd]

For fans, expectations are usually hard to manage, no matter how your team is doing or what their long-term prospects.  The Spurs have just won three straight against potential playoff opponents, and what was a good start has turned into a pertinacious lead over Western rivals.  Plus, it looks great and is fun to say!  What is the Spurs' record?  Why, twenty-nine and four, sir!  Below the jump, I go ahead and do what Pop and the players will never do, and project our amazine start forward to try to get some sort of reasonable expectation for the remaining forty-nine games.

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You did the best you could, Mbah a Moute. 

AP Photo Eric Gray.

After a tense and physical comeback attempt, the Milwaukee Bucks fell to the last-second brilliance of Manu Ginobili as the San Antonio Spurs improved to 21-3.  The Spurs needed every point of a 51-35 halftime lead and a clutch Ginobili buzzer beater to outlast the Bucks and their mop-topped leader Andrew Bogut.  The Big Four came through for the Spurs despite Bogut ending four Spurs' possessions in the last four minutes with blocks.

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via www.savagechickens.com

Like stats?  Like winning?  I went a bit crazy with the Basketball-reference.com Play Index, and came up with seven peeks under the skin of the terrifying winning machine that is our Spurs.  You already know that Manu is unstoppable and Splitter is a beautiful, beautiful man, but don't you want to revel in the details?  How could you resist?

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In front of a home crowd with reasonably low expectations, the Clippers defied standings, history, and the best laid plans for a 80-2 season with a gutsy victory over our heroes the San Antonio Spurs. Blake Griffin and his rookie pals built an improbable lead over the NBA-best Spurs, and the long lost Baron Davis contributed just enough to protect it while the Spurs fought and clawed to no avail.  If you're a glutton for punishment and savor that bad taste in your mouth right now, jump below and read on, friend.

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