SB Nation User Blog: grover

Monday's Minute-to-Midnight Minor League Musings: The Prospects of Attrition

grover — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 06:57:42 -0000

When you look at an organization’s bevy of prospects you have to accept that some of them, probably as many as half of them, will not qualify for similar consideration a year later. Injuries, poor performance, promotions and trades will exact a toll on any prospect list. Heading into the 2008 season the Oakland A’s had 13 grade B- or better prospects in their organization, using John Sickels’ method of grading. I prefer his way at grading prospects because a B-grade prospect in one system is held in the same regard as a B-grade prospect in another system. (And I’m making the cut-off for quality of prospect a B- because when I was a kid in school that was the lowest grade I could get and not get a talking to from my parents.) During the season Beane traded for 5 more B-grade prospects in the Harden/Gaudin and Blanton deals.

We just heard Mr. Sickels discuss the state of the A’s farm system in an interview with Lord Blez. He gives the A’s credit for turning around a desolate farm system and fielding a group of prospects that are in the discussion for the title of best in the minor leagues. But the names will have radically changed from the list Mr. Sickels printed less then a year ago.

2008

Brett Anderson (B+)

Andrew Bailey (B-)

Daric Barton (B+)

Corey Brown (B-)

Trevor Cahill (B)

Chris Carter (B+)

Aaron Cunningham (B-)

Fautino De Los Santos (B+)

Sean Doolittle (B-)

Carlos Gonzalez (B+)

Gio Gonzalez (B+)

Henry Rodriguez (B)

James Simmons (B)

2008 In-Season Trades

Josh Donaldson (B)

Sean Gallagher (B)

Eric Patterson (B)

Adrian Cardenas (B)

Josh Outman (B)

Daric Barton, Carlos Gonzalez and Sean Gallagher will not be included in the 2009 list as they have too much time in the big leagues. It’s doubtful that Gio Gonzalez will pitch the necessary 20 innings to go over the rookie limit but his struggles in the Show and with commanding the strike zone in AAA will probably cause his B+ grade to drop to a B. Eric Patterson will probably have enough at bats by the end of the season to lose his rookie eligibility and if he doesn’t his big league performance would probably cause him to drop into the B-/C+ range. Sickels mentioned in his chat that he’d probably grade Donaldson a C+ next time around but I’m going to show you some numbers in a bit that, combined with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, could raise that C+ to a B-.

Fautino De Los Santos blew out his elbow and will probably miss a portion of next season. In the past Sickels has dropped even the best pitching prospects a full grade if they go under the knife and I assume that will happen in DLS’s case. Andrew Bailey is almost certain to drop from a B- to a C+ because of his struggles as a SP in AA and subsequent conversion to the bullpen. Henry Rodriguez has more stuff then Bailey but his struggles in AA were even worse than his teammate’s. He too will probably see his grade drop but I’m hoping it’ll only drop to a B-. Still, it’s not inconceivable that 8 of the 18 names above will not be in next year’s list of B- or better prospects.

Not that it’s all doom-and-gloom. In fact, there’s a lot more to be happy about then sad. Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and Chris Carter all have a good chance at seeing their grades raised to A- or maybe even a full A. (The last is kinda doubtful, but what the Hell, why not think positive?) Vincent Mazzaro is almost certain to jump from his 2008 C grade to at least a B- while Sam Demel and Matt Sulentic could also see something in the B-range. (Quick tangent: I figure one of Demel or Carignan is a lock for a B- or above grade, I’m choosing the guy with more strike outs and the better ground ball ratio.) I’m not sure how Sickels is going to grade Inoa, probably not very high (I’m guessing C+) because he’s always been hesitant when grading prospects that haven’t played in the States. The 2008 draft class has 4 candidates for B- or better grades in Rashun Dixon, Jason Christian, Jemile Weeks and Jeremy Barfield. But conservatively speaking the A’s could go into next season with another 12-13 grade B- and better prospects in the organization. That’s very good as most systems struggle to field 10 prospects of that caliber.

So if you ever run across a muppet suggesting the A’s trade a few of these guys to fill a big league hole don’t be alarmed and worry that the farm system is about to be gutted, ‘cause that just ain’t the truth of the situation.

Now I’d be remiss if I went any longer on this minor league report and failed to congratulate the Sacramento River Cats and the Stockton Ports for winning their respective league championships. So congratulations guys and I hope you got to drink some quality champagne, because the cheap stuff gives you an awful headache! Tuesday night the River Cats play the International League champion Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees in a one game play-off to determine who’s the top dog in AAA. ESPN2 will televise the game at 5 PM PST, so if you’ve got the beer you might as well sit down and enjoy the game.

Moving on to the Stockton Ports, I wanted to focus on three players who formed the heart of the Port’s line-up: Chris Carter, Corey Brown and Josh Donaldson. Donaldson and Brown split the season between the Midwest League and the California League and I wanted to include their postseason performance into the overall mix to see how they did on the year. I include Chris Carter into the mix because saying he hit 44 homeruns for Stockton sounds sexier then he hit 39 homeruns.

Chris Carter: 44 AB 14 Hits, 3 Doubles, 1 Triple, 5 HR 9/14 BB/K 318/434/773

Including the play-offs, Carter hit 264/368/585 with 35 Doubles, 5 Triples, 44 HR, 86 walks and 170 strike outs in 550 at bats. The Cal League is a hitter’s league but that kind of power production is for real, especially coming from a 21 year old. I’m not sure what position he’ll end up playing (it won’t be 3B) but he’s got a chance to be special, especially if he can get a bit more control over the strike zone.

Corey Brown: 45 AB 8 Hits, 3 Doubles, 1 HR 5/23 BB/K 178/260/311

Brown is a notorious streak hitter and he was fairly cold through the play-offs. His combined numbers between the Midwest and Cal leagues reads 259/338/494 with 30 Doubles, 2 Triples, 31 HR, 63 walks and 191 strike outs in 541 at bats. Brown was also 16 for 17 on stolen base attempts. Corey offers huge power and serious offensive potential but he must make more contact or he will almost certainly flame out.

Josh Donaldson: 46 AB 19 Hits, 4 Doubles, 1 Triple, 4 HR 10/6 BB/K 413/518/804

If you thought Carter was hot in the play-offs he had nothing on Donaldson. The 22 year old catcher destroyed the opponent’s pitching and it’s this performance, combined with what I hope will be a fully successful AFL stint, which will keep Donaldson from dropping all the way to a C+. Donaldson’s play-off numbers combine with his regular season production to create a 281/349/480 line with 30 Doubles, 3 Triples, 19 HR, 44 walks and 76 strike outs in 469 at bats. C’mon John, that’s gotta be worth a B- grade!

At some point Taj and I will sit down and do a positional depth chart for the Oakland organization. Instructional League is about to start, then the AFL and the Hawaiian Winter League kick into gear so we should have plenty to talk about through December. But if you’ve got any ideas or suggestions about what you’d like to see from the Minor League Musing Staff go ahead and let us know. We’re perfectly capable of ignoring even the most sensible of suggestions.

If you're serious about fixing 3rd base, here's the way to go

grover — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 06:31:29 -0000

It’s obvious that the A’s need a new 3B.

Chavez’s shoulder won’t let him make the necessary throws, Hannahan can’t hit and Jeff Baisley is, well, Jeff Baisley. What do we want from a new 3B? Let’s make a list:

Good, reliable defense.

Above average offense, preferably with 20 homerun RH pop.

Affordable.

Young enough to maybe give us some peak years production.

Under team control long enough to help the A’s compete in a couple years.

Healthy!

Doesn’t cost us Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill to acquire.

Sounds doable.

I think I know a way to get all that but there’s a bit of a problem. The problem is the A’s lack a necessary piece needed to make the trade I envision. They need a young, B-grade or better SP who spent the 2008 primarily in A-ball. In essence, they need another Anderson or Cahill, pre-2008 version. Fortunately there’s a solution to this problem and his name is Huston Street. No, Street can’t be offered up in lieu of the unnamed prospect but he can be dealt to another team for a package that includes our A-ball hurler. Street is certainly worth more then 1 A-ball arm but the rest of that package isn’t relevant to my latest trade proposal.

The A’s need to pursue Washington Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman. And I mean it when I say pursue… the Nationals aren’t shopping Zimmerman. The A’s are going to have to go after him.

Let’s start with all the negatives that some people will fixate on when talking about this idea. Washington GM Jim Bowden is a tough person to deal with. Ryan Zimmerman is exactly the kind of young, talented player a team like the Nationals should be trying to build around. Zimmerman missed time earlier in the year do to a left shoulder injury, luckily he avoided surgery and is supposed to be fully recovered. (He’s hitting 313/366/489 since August 1, proof enough?) He could stand to draw a few more walks.

As to why A’s fans should want Mr. Zimmerman, let’s go back to our list. Zimmerman turns 24 in December and is under team control for 3 more seasons. According to the guy who runs Federal Baseball (SBN’s Nationals site) Ryan doesn’t seem to want to go through arbitration the next three years, he’d prefer a contract that covers the next few seasons. Assuming that’s true, I’d want to give him a contract similar to what the A’s gave Swisher a year ago. Sign him through his arby years at $3.5/5.5/7 million, $10 million to cover his first year of FA eligibility in 2012 and a $13 million option for 2013. Something along that line should suffice and those are his peak years at an affordable sticker price.

What would it take to make this happen? Again, talking to Ed over at Federal Baseball, it looks like a deal could be had that didn’t involve Anderson or Cahill if the A’s could find that A-ball arm I was talking about earlier. Mr. Doe, together with Mazzaro, Barton and Cardenas might be enough to land Zimmerman. In a strange twist, I was actually the one arguing that it should cost more to land Zimmerman! Bowden loves guys with tools and with Nick Johnson and Dimitri Young on the books through 2009 he doesn’t need a 1B ready to play in Washington on Day 1. That’s why I think Bowden would ask for Chris Carter instead of Barton. And since Bowden likes to push, he’d also want Henry Rodriguez. Rodriguez has the kind of power arm that Bowden tends to covet and today’s trade market has pushed quantity over quality.

So my official trade proposal is Mr. Doe/Mazzaro/Carter/Rodriguez/Cardenas for Ryan Zimmerman. A steep price to be sure, but a low-cost, Gold-Glove caliber 3B with 25 HR pop is hard to come by. Keep in mind this is the high end of what it would cost to acquire Zimmerman. I’d be perfectly willing to close the deal for less! In fact, I’m half tempted to scratch out Cardenas’ name from the list because I kinda doubt Bowden would push for Carter and Cardenas. On the other hand, if Bowden did push for both I wouldn't let Adrian Cardenas keep me from landing Ryan Zimmerman.

I’m sure some people are going to be put off by Carter’s inclusion in the mix. Believe me, I’d much rather it be Barton who got sent packing but that switch makes almost no sense for the Nationals. I’d ask for Carter if I was in Bowden’s shoes, why would I expect him to want less then me? This is why my last diary pushed so strongly for the A’s to sign a FA slugger, because I knew that Chris Carter wasn’t going to be an option if I somehow got my way in all this talk. The biggest hole in Washington’s organization is at 1B and Chris Carter’s 40 HR power potential offers the chance to change that. Add in an advanced SP prospect like Mazzaro and a promising young stud like Mr. Doe and I think the A’s are roughly three-quarters of the way to landing Ryan Zimmerman.

Let me know what you think.

Poll

What do you think of the plan?

Join the debate: 8 hitters, 1 roster slot... who to sign?

grover — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 01:36:53 -0000

1979.

Consider that a hint towards a shocking revelation still to come. But before we start looking back in time let’s focus on the here and now. Your 2008 Oakland currently sport the lowest cumulative team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging numbers in major league baseball. The A’s have scored 554 runs in 141 games played, putting them on pace to score fewer then 640 runs for the season. To put that in perspective, that’s 100 runs fewer then the A’s scored last year when everyone thought the A’s featured a below-average offense. 640 runs in a season would be the lowest number of runs the A’s scored in a non-strike season since… you guessed it… 1979!

How’s that for freaking pathetic.

A few days back I posted a Staturday article that discussed how the A’s had spent their money on player salaries and bonuses in 2007 and 2008. I pointed out that the 2009 roster, as currently constructed, would run approximately $39 million and that if the A’s management was willing to invest the same amount of money as they did in 2007 (roughly $83 million) then they could continue to invest heavily in acquiring amateur talent through the draft and the international markets while leaving $30 million that could go towards the big league roster. Hey, I’m all for developing home-grown talent but sometimes instant gratification is nice too. The A’s have a unique (for them) opportunity to go after a premier offensive player via free agency during the next two off-seasons and quite frankly, they have the need.

(Here’s a link to my previous article for anyone who wants to take a closer look at the dollar figures, I don’t feel like repeating myself.)

The question is, who should the A’s sign? I’m not interested in a one-year-wonder, some fading vet that we can maybe milk one last year of production out of. Been there, done that and with a $30 million wallet I want to move to the high rollers table. The A’s need to find a cornerstone player, someone who’ll anchor the line-up for the next 5-7 years and I don’t really care about what position he plays. Kurt Suzuki is the only player guaranteed a starting job next year as far as I’m concerned and every pending free agent on the roster can proceed to the nearest exit. Yes, that includes you too Mr. Ellis. Love the glove but you quit hitting, your arm is about to fall off and I’m not interested in spending the money to glue you back together.

So what are we looking for to spend our money on? Premier offensive ability and health headlines the list, with the FA-in-question preferably young enough to count on for the next half-decade or so. The A’s need to maximize their bang for the buck, as it were, and with that in mind there are 8 free agents over the next 2 years that could fit the bill. They all have their pros and cons, which is why I’m including a poll for people to vote for their preferred pick. Be prepared to defend you’re rational in the comments, ‘cause it’s only the future of the A’s we’re talking about here.

Let the debate begin.

2009 Options (DOB)

Mark Teixeira (4/11/80) 137 G 506 AB 304/407/540 29 HR 84/87 BB/K

The cream of the FA crop in 2009 and 2010. A switch hitter with excellent numbers, good defense at 1B, the youngest FA-to-be and is probably kind to children and small animals. He’s going to be on every big market wish list and the Angels have already said they’d do everything they can to re-sign him and not let him enter the free agent market. But his agent is Scott Boras and Teixeira has made it known that he wants his next contract to be his last contract, Mr. Boras has whispered a 10 year deal will be necessary to land his client. Dollar wise, you’re looking at a minimum of $20 million a year and Baltimore owner Peter Angelos has long coveted Teixeira so don’t expect the annual number to drop any. If you pick Teixeira in the poll, you’re saying yes to a 10 year deal at $20-$25 million annual.

Pat Burrell (10/10/76) 139 G 475 AB 255/371/516 30 HR 90/121 BB/K

A word to the wise, Burrell is not merely a creation of Citizens Bank Park as his 2008 Home/Road splits show he’s been much better away from his hitter friendly home park. Burrell offers more long term RH power then the A’s have had since McGwire played for Oakland. He’ll probably be willing to sign a typical 4-5 year deal plus an option (as opposed to Tex’s decade-long guaranteed pact) for $15 million annual. Burrell rates as a good, but not great hitter and if he slips as he gets older it wouldn’t take much before he fell from good to above average or less. Flip side to that is sticking him at DH could preserve him through his time with the A’s. Availability could be an issue since the Phillies would like to bring him back and Burrell has expressed a desire to stay.

Manny Ramirez (5/30/72) 133 G 480 AB 323/424/575 30 HR 75/107 BB/K

Manny is high maintenance. At 36 he’s the oldest FA-to-be in either group and he’s already played in as many games this year as he did in either of the two previous seasons. He quit in Boston, forcing them to trade him even as they push for another title shot.

He’s also been one of the best RH hitters in baseball for the past 15 or so years.

Manny got shipped to the Dodgers and is kicking ass in one of the most notorious pitcher’s parks in baseball. Even agent Scott Boras recognizes that Manny is looking at 2-3 year guaranteed deal this off-season, although I’m not sure if there will be any willingness to come down from the $20 million Manny “earned” in 2008.

Adam Dunn (11/9/79) 136 G 440 AB 239/391/520 35 HR 107/140 BB/K

Dunn is the deluxe in 3 True Outcome hitters and he’s destined for an AL DH role sometime soon. Some would argue that he’d just be a more expensive version of Jack Cust and they might be right, assuming of course that the 2009 version of Cust hits more like the 2007 version did and not like the 2008 version is. If that doesn’t happen then Adam Dunn’s career .901 OPS says “Bite Me” to the Custalicious crowd. Dunn will probably be looking for a 6 year deal worth $16 million annual.

2010 Options (DOB)

Vlad Guerrero (2/9/76)

The Angels hold a team option on Vlad for the 2009 season and I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t exercise it. A physical freak, LA has been worried about his body breaking down the last couple seasons and would prefer to have Vlad DH more often. Alas, Vlad’s ego nixes that idea time and again. Would that change after next season? I’m not going to speculate on years/dollars for Vlad or the rest of the 2010 crowd because their 2009 performance will go a long way in determining those values.

Matt Holliday (1/15/80)

Holliday gets a lot of grief because he plays in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. And while Coors Field has certainly boosted his numbers it should be noted that Holliday’s road OPS has gone from .815 to .859 to .877 over the past 3 seasons. A Scott Boras client, you can be sure that Holliday will make a lot of money in 2010.

Jason Bay (9/20/78)

Bay has proven to be fairly durable and productive since breaking in to the Show in 2004. Certainly a step below the elite hitters, he and Rick Ankiel are the only outfielders on this list with the athleticism to keep playing in the field for the bulk of their next contract. Like Pat Burrell, once he starts to slip it’s not a far drop to him being merely an average hitter.

Rick Ankiel (7/19/79)

A bit of a stretch to make this list considering he has barely a full season’s worth of at bats in his big league career, 25 HRs and a .854 OPS is more impressive then anything Adrian Beltre has done since 2004. I could have put Chipper Jones here but he’ll be 38 in April, 2010 and I guess I see him going the Cal Ripken/Tony Gwynn route.

There are those who’ll probably advocate waiting until Eric Chavez clears the books, presumably after the 2010 season, before going after a premier FA hitter. The problem with that is the A’s need offensive help NOW and adding a quality veteran bat could help take some pressure off our young hitters. And before anyone says that the “pressure” argument is a myth, consider that Travis Buck has come out and said that he put pressure on himself to try and replace Swisher and Kotsay in the line-up. That put him in the wrong place mentally and combined with his physical problems to ruin his 2008 season. Let’s give the young hitters a rock to cling to, someone who can be “The Man” and allow Cunningham and Barton and Gonzalez to develop without the added pressure of needing to carry the line-up.

I realize that during Billy Beane’s tenure the A’s haven’t exactly gone after premier free agents. You know what else they haven’t done? Post back-to-back losing seasons. The A’s have always preached an atmosphere of winning in their minor league system, often leaving prospects in Sacramento to experience a play-off run rather then promoting them to Oakland on September 1. The A’s need to re-establish an atmosphere of winning at the big league level, both for the players and the fans, and exploiting this opportunity to sign a premier hitter is a significant step in that direction. Don’t misunderstand, I do not think the A’s are one big bat away from contention. If anything, they need to add two good bats and have their young guys develop into the hitters they’re expected to be. The A’s have the youth in place and the cash to buy one of the bats without impacting the rest of the roster. There is no good reason not to pursue one of the 8 players I brought up in this post.

As for the second quality bat I briefly mentioned…

Well, I’ve got an idea about a trade that'll pull that off.

A Very Special Staturday: Fiscal sensibility and winning more games

grover — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 02:06:25 -0000

Talent wins baseball games.

Talent costs money.

The A’s finished last season 10 games under .500 because of a lack of talent, not funding. They spent over $79 million on player salaries alone and then they spent another $3.9 million on bonuses for their 2007 draft class. That’s a minimum $83 million invested directly into the on-field talent, factor in the salaries of the minor league minions and the A’s owners spent over $85 million just to get the guys on the various rosters to show up. The results were completely unacceptable. The big league team finished 76-86 and the farm system ranked as one of the five worst in baseball.

Spending money is not the same thing as acquiring talent.

Currently, the A’s are 10 games under .500 (again) and have one of the top three farm systems in baseball. They did this by trading proven big league talent for minor league prospects and re-directing funds towards acquiring highly rated amateur talent. The 2008 Opening Day payroll stood at just under $48 million and the in-season trades of Blanton, Harden and Gaudin shaved about $4.3 million from that original figure. Factor in the April signing of Frank Thomas and the A’s have dedicated roughly $44 million towards the major league payroll, a drop of $35 million from last year yet the on-field results (as of Friday afternoon) are identical.

Trades alone were not what revitalized the farm system, a system which is expected to feed talent to the big league club and grow a new dynasty in the Oakland/Fremont area. This year the A’s spent more then $6.1 million in signing bonuses for their 2008 draft class, including over-slot paydays to seventh round pick RHP Brett Hunter ($1.1 million) tenth round pick Rashun Dixon ($600K) and twenty-eighth round pick Dusty Coleman ($675K). This was huge, and for the A’s, practically unheard of. Signability issues caused these three to fall lower in the draft then their natural talents warranted and the A’s essentially bought themselves a supplimental first and two mid-second round picks that they didn’t have when the draft started. To get a bit better perspective on this, consider that the A’s spent $600,000 MORE in the 2008 draft then they spent on signing bonuses in the 2007 and 2006 drafts combined! On the international front, the A’s made headlines by giving a record $4.25 million bonus to Dominican RHP Michael Inoa; a player the A’s consider a once-in-a-decade prospect. They also signed 5 players out of Venezuela for an undisclosed amount of money.

All told, the A’s spent $10.5 – $11 million on amateur talent this season. That’s roughly equivalent to what they spent the last three seasons COMBINED.

So what’s next?

The purpose of this rebuild is to make the Oakland A’s a contender again, and soon. Beane and his people have revitalized a destitute farm system and it is imperative that they continue to expend the necessary resources to keep the young talent flowing. Fortunately the economics involved in keeping a well stocked farm system are fairly low, all things considered. It is unlikely that the A’s will spend anywhere near $11 million a year on amateur talent in the future, after all, once-in-a-decade talents don’t come along every year! Beane could budget $8 million annual towards the draft and international signings and that should provide him with plenty of flexibility to go after the athletes he chooses. As we saw from the 2007 numbers there is a lot more cash available to finance the big league roster.

The A’s are at an interesting transition point. Over the next two seasons there will only be four critical players eligible for arbitration. (I figure guys like Bowen and Denorfia will go the way of Marco Scutaro before they get expensive.) Of those four players, Duke is currently a year away from free agency and Casilla isn’t eligible until after next season while Street and Cust are both scheduled to get raises the next two years. Matt Murton will also be eligible for arbitration by 2010 but who knows how important he’s going to be? The A’s also owe Crosby and Chavez $16.5 million next year, with Chavez looking at another $12 million in 2010 and a team controlled option at $12.5 million or a $3 million buy-out in 2011. The rest of the roster (as currently constructed) will make less then $450K a head annual through the 2010 season! I’m not the best at trying to determine arbitration figures and the like, but figuring on the high side I have the A’s 2009 payroll at approximately $39 million. I see a golden opportunity to pursue a significant free agent contract even after factoring in the $8 million we’ve set aside to sign amateur talent.

It’s rare that the A’s have the budgetary flexibility to carry two 8-figure contracts but that window will exist through the 2010 season. After that, the young players we’ve seen the last two seasons will be looking for hefty raises and the A’s need to be able to pay them. Fortunately, 2011 is probably going to be Chavez’s walk year so there shouldn’t be a problem. The line-up has several holes in it and adding an impact bat would be a major step in the right direction. Keep in mind though, there isn’t a single bat scheduled to hit the free agent market in the next two off-seasons that could “fix” the A’s putrid offense. Nor can the A’s afford to sign two free agent bats, because it would hinder the team’s ability to retain the players it develops over the next couple years. Fortunately there are eight hitters scheduled to hit free agency in the next two off-seasons who represent a serious improvement over the bats currently in place. The A’s should be able to land one of them if they put out the effort.

Some may argue that going after expensive free agents isn't the way the A's do business. That's been true in the past, but when was the last time Beane dropped $4 million on a 16 year-old Dominican pitcher? The way things were done before no longer work and if you can't adapt you are going to wither and die. The A's have the depth to pull off a major trade that could help the big league roster, in fact there's a plan I'm working on right now that could represent a significant upgrade to the line-up. Having the prospects to pull off such a deal is certainly an asset, but being liquid and having the cash available to add to the talent level of the entire organization is also an asset and one the Beane needs to exploit in the next two off-seasons.

I’ll discuss the FA options another day. Enjoy the 3-day weekend.

Staturday: Today's Number is... 40

grover — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 14:49:40 -0000

So I was halfway through a story when I saw yet another question regarding the 40-man roster in 2009. This was a topic I was going to address once Beane finished dealing (which was the nature of the earlier story) come July 31st but as there seems to be continued confusion on the topic, I'll dive in now.

This is based on what we know about the organization and existing contracts today. In other words, Mark Ellis is a FA-to-be and will therefore NOT be on next year's 40-man roster.

We'll start simple. The following is a list of 23 players who are almost guaranteed to make the 40-man roster in 2009.

Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Andrew Brown, Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland, Sean Gallagher, Henry Rodriguez, Greg Smith, Huston Street, Brad Ziegler, Kurt Suzuki, Daric Barton, Eric Chavez, Bobbu Crosby, Gregorio Petit, Travis Buck, Jack Cust, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Ryan Sweeney.

Barring major injury or trade, those 23 players are going to be on Oakland's 40-man roster next year.

There are 5 players on the 2008 40-man roster who will not be around next year, based on their current contracts.

Frank Thomas, Emil Brown, Mike Sweeney, Mark Ellis, Keith Foulke.

There are 10 key players within the organization who will, for the first time, need to be placed on the 2009 40-man roster or risk losing them to the Rule 5 draft.

Ryan Webb

Josh Outman

Cliff Pennington

Jimmy Shull

Jason Ray

Jeff Baisley

Mike Massaro

Anthony Recker

Michael Madsen

Brad Kilby

Shull, Ray and Madsen are all coming back from surgery so there's a good chance they could slip through the Rule 5 draft without adding them to the 40-man. Madsen was pitching in AAA last year so he'd be most likely to go if someone grabbed him in the 1st round but the A's wouldn't be losing much if he went elsewhere. I've linked the 6 guys I think will make the cut and get added to the 40-man roster in 2009.

So our hypothetical 2009 40-man roster stands at 29 players. We've got 11 more spots and here is where some decisions have to be made.

Do the A's want to bring back Mark Ellis?

Are the A's going to go after any free agents?

As things stand now, the A's have about $23 million committed towards salaries next year, plus arbitrition cases for Duke, DiNardo and Street (2nd year Arby) and Cust and Bowen (1st year Arby). So rough guess we'll tack on an extra $13 million to the total... call it a $36 million payroll for next season. That's an awful lot of payroll flexibility so a significant purchase could happen.

There are 13 more players on the 2008 4-man roster to consider as well.

If I'm right on the first 29 players, then at least two of the above are getting dropped from the 40-man roster even if the A's don't make another move. The A's have a team option on Embree for 2009, if he continues to pitch poorly then I doubt the A's invest another $3 million on him. Do the A's want to go to arbitration with DiNardo again? If my math is right, Dan Meyer is out of options next season. Either he's on Oakland's roster or they have to put him on waivers.

Herrera and Robnett are ultra-toolsy outfielders who, for various reasons, haven't developed as hoped. Gray kinda sucks, Conrad is basically roster fill, Hannahan and Davis are an important step above roster fill.

What happens at Catcher? Do the A's give Bowen arbitration or do they call up Powell and let him be the back-up? (This answer is probably heavily dependent on how Powell plays through the rest of the season.)

At this point, it looks like Conrad and Embree are the odd men out with Gray next in line. You could probably swap Gray and Conrad and I wouldn't argue.

So that's how the 2009 40-man roster shapes up for now.

Grady Sizemore Query

grover — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 23:00:08 -0000

Hello again. Just your friendly neighborhood muppet dropping by for another chat. The folks over at AthleticsNation have been talking a lot about the A's offense (or lack thereof as the case most certainly be) and various names have been bandied back and forth as possible targets to acquire. One of the more prominent personalities on AN brought up your very own Ryan Garko and that got me thinking about your roster.

So, what would it take to pry Grady Sizemore out of Cleveland's line-up?

Yeah, I know. Spare me the cries that the Indians would never trade Grady. You're telling me the Tribe faithful would be happy if the Front Office turned down a Sizemore trade that could make the franchise better? No one is untouchable... anyone can get traded. Hell, even guys who have full no-trade protection can get traded!

A-Rod got traded.

Therefore Sizemore could get traded, if a team was willing to pay the price. My question to this board is, what is that price?

I only have one stipulation: You cannot ask for someone not readily available. The players have to be in the A's organization today AND they must be eligible to be traded. So don't go asking for Inoa because MLB rules state a player must be with his signing organization for 1 year before he can be traded.

So, gun to your head... you've got to trade Sizemore to Oakland. Who do you get in return?

Duke... should he stay or should he go now?

grover — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:08:01 -0000

Why yes, I am playing the Clash as I start to write this.

Here's the deal.

As things stand now, Justin Duchscherer is a year and a half from becoming a free agent for the first time in his pro career. He will be 31 when that happens, his 32nd birthday will be right around the corner. And as much love as Duke may have towards the Oakland organization he will know that he has one shot at landing a big payday before his career is over. Chances are he'll get more money to play somewhere other then Oakland and he will leave the A's.

The A's rarely keep their free agents once they taste the free market.

There are those on AN who are fine with that outcome. They would say that we should enjoy Duke for one more full season and then bid him farewell and take the draft picks as compensation. I assure you, in conversation they will say the A's will get 2 1st round picks in return for letting Duke go. Now I'm certain that Duke will put up numbers that will earn him Type A free agent status, so that's not the issue. No, the issue is Barry Zito. See, I spent a year listening to people say again and again that the A's should keep Zito till his 6 years were up and then let him walk as a free agent. For a year people were telling me that getting 1 more year of performance out of Zito, plus two 1st round draft picks, was a better deal then trading Barry. Maybe they were right.

Not that we'd know because Zito signed with Giants, a team so bad they weren't forced into surrendering their 1st round pick to sign a marquee FA like Barry Zito so instead of enjoying 2 1st round picks the A's got a Sup 1 plus a 2nd round pick for their troubles. That bit.

I have no desire to experience the same damn thing with Duke.

So I say trade Duke or sign him to an extension and you do it before July 31st rolls around.

First the arguement for trading Duke.

If it was ever Beane's intention to trade Duke, now is the time. He will never have more trade value then he has now. Two time All-Star, leading all SP in ERA and playing for a team in contention. Even better for a buyer, Duke will be under their control through 2009. There is a limited supply of reliable SP available on the trade market and the two most desired arms have already been moved to contenders. I repeat, Justin Duchscherer will never have more trade value then he has right now! He might just be the best arm available.

Now the arguement for signing Duke to an extension.

I propose a 3 year/$30 million guaranteed deal with a team controlled 4th year option at $10 million. Let me break down how the money would be distrubuted, 'cause this is a key point in what makes the deal so attractive for the A's. My plan includes a $6 million signing bonus paid in full THIS season. Total 2008 salary expenditure for Duke: $7.2 million.

2009-2011: $7 million annual salary.

2012: Team controlled $10 million option with a $3 million buy-out. I look at this as saying the A's are willing to pay Duke another $7 million to pitch 1 more season for them.

Total payout (assuming option is activated): 4 years/$37 million.

A year and a half from now, Duke shouldn't have any problem landing a $9 million annual deal on the free agent market. My plan pays Duke the same figure, only he gets more cash earlier and the A's get to spread the payment of a 3 year guaranteed deal out over 5 seasons at roughly $7 million annual.

So the deal sounds fine fiscally, how about in terms of performance? Well, PECOTA is going to have to re-do their projections since Duke is now a SP but cominh into this season they weren't projecting any drop-off in performance through 2009 and only a slight dip in 2010. 2011 could see a decline but that's also the last guaranteed year on the proposed deal. Duke will be 33 in 2011, not so old that we need to worry about a dramatic drop-off in his stuff. Assuming Duke doesn't lose his command and control (which seems unlikely) his performance shouldn't be a negative. And in case there is a drop-off you can let him walk after the season.

As I see it, both options have their merits. The only plan that is truly open to suckitude is the one that stays the course and lets him walk as a FA after the 2009 season.

Poll

Should Beane trade Duke or sign him to an extension?

So the Phillies are looking at Blanton... interesting

grover — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 02:43:34 -0000

Hi, I'm grover and I've visited before way back when.

I'd be shocked if the A's parted ways with Blanton, seeing as his stock is so low right now. I imagine that's part of the appeal for the Phillies, they know he can pitch better then he's shown and they're hoping they can get a bargain. A sound plan but it tends to run contrary to Beane's attempts to gouge his trade partners mercilessly.

What about 2 time All-Star Justin Duchscherer (or Duke as the lovable muppets at AN call him) as the final piece to Philly's rotation? Duke has the lowest SP ERA in all of baseball and his component numbers are nice to look at as well. Admittedly he probably pitched a little over his head in the 1st half but when you look at his career numbers you can see that he knows how to pitch.

He's arby eligible next season, so the Phils could control him for a season and a half if they chose to do so. I realize the Philly fans (and management for that matter) would prefer if Myers could come back and pitch like he has in the past but assuming he doesn't, would Duke be of interest?

If the readers of this site advocate a trade for Duke, perhaps you wouldn't mind sharing your ideas regarding adequate payment. I'm curious to know what the deal is with Jason Donald. Does he have the range for SS? 'Cause the A's needs someone who can replace Bobby Crosby and the sooner the better!

FYI, another guy I like is Dominic Brown.

Just so ya know.

Is it a Staturday post if I use numbers?

grover — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 06:12:14 -0000

UPDATE, 2:20pm PDT

RE TAILGATE LOCATION FOR AN DAY V: If you are coming to the AN Day festivities, we are now set up in the East side of Lot A, at the end of rows 12-14.

Hello AN, miss me?

Well, your vacation from lovable, furry me is over.

For now.

The A's have had a bit of a roster shake-up since last I visited and while this post will certainly touch on the recent trade I'm not gonna go all in-depth on a subject that has been ridden hard and put away wet. No, the nearly dead Staturday articles were meant to focus on the numbers... to use hard data and statistical analysis in an attempt to achieve a deeper understanding of the Oakland A's in particular and baseball in general. So today I'm going to ask you to do some heavy lifting while I'm off frolicking at AN Day V...

The A's have invested heavily in 5 guys currently in AA or above to play the 3 outfield spots in Oakland. Make that 6 guys if the A's sign Mark Ellis to an extension, thereby bumping Eric Patterson into the outfield mix.

How does that math work itself out?

I'm a stinker, aren't I? Asking a question like that and then making you jump to find the answer. Guess what! I'm not going to tell you the answer because I'm not sure what the answer is.

Travis Buck, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Ryan Sweeney, Aaron Cunningham and maybe Eric Patterson. Any combination of the above group could be you starting 3 come Opening Day, 2009. Sure, the logjam is lessened if Ellis moves on and Patterson takes his place at 2nd base but I seriously hope the Oakland FO continues to work on an extension for Ellis. Patterson might be able to replace or even surpass Ellis' offense but defensively it's no contest... Ellis is the best in the AL and maybe all of baseball. Letting Ellis go because Patterson could replace him would be bad for the A's.

So let's assume that the A's do keep a player that most of us want to see stick around and thusly push Patterson into the OF mix. Eric has the skill set to maybe bat lead-off. Travis had a .851 OPS his rookie year. Gonzalez was the centerpiece in the Haren trade plus he's one of the most talented youngsters in the game, he's going to get plenty of chances. Murton has the most experience and bats right handed... the A's have leaned left for several years. Sweeney's played well this year and Cunningham looks to be ready for a chance by the start of next season.

Yikes.

So what's the answer? Well, if you had been paying attention to the top of the page you'd know that I don't have any answers! Although I admit to a buzzing in my brain that suggests a trade is on the way.

As for the whole trade thing that went down... I'll be honest with you. If someone told me the A's moved Harden for Gallagher, Donaldson and a warm body like Patterson I'd have thought that Beane had pulled off a Hell of a deal. Not quite Fucking-A quality but a definite plus. Two things bug me about the deal.

1) I don't think Murton will ever be more the an average corner outfielder, the kind of guy you're already looking to replace. I don't like Matt Murton.

2) If I see the deal as Harden for the 3 guys, then that must mean that I see the rest being Gaudin for Murton straight up. And I hate that view because Gaudin the SP is worth a lot more then Matt Murton. But Gaudin the bullpen arm (a Billy Beane creation, mind you) can only net Murton.

In my eyes the A's traded two SP and they did not get equivlent value in return. I understand Harden's health is an issue but the upside for the Cubs is two SP that they'll control for at least the next season and a half should they choose to spend the money. In that light I don't think the A's got a fair return.

But that subject has been beaten to death.

I'm off to Oakland to venture forth and mingle with the others who have left the sanctuary of their mothers' basements for the light that is the Coliseum. Today will also be my son's 1st baseball game. So have at it AN, let me hear whom you think will be the starting 3 outfielders in 2009. I won't be around to pick on you until Sunday.

Oh yeah... Go A's!

And baseballgirl rocks.

Monday's Mining the Metro-sexual Minor League Master Batters (and pitchers)

grover — Fri, 30 May 2008 22:36:59 -0000

Well, I can't say Billy Beane is boring or predictable. Having placed roughly 20% of the 25 man roster on the DL in the past 36 hours, Beane decides to DFA 2B Kevin Melilo and P Lenny DiNardo while he's redecorating. It kinda feels like 2002 again, only without the losing record and the close quarters hot-tubbing pictures. I'd pat myself on the back because I've been saying we'd see some roster moves for a couple weeks now but frak me, I wasn't expecting this!

But Mining the Metro-sexual Minor League Master Batters (and pitchers) is not about delving into the WTF?! transactions involving the big league roster EXCEPT when it involves newbies getting their call-up, which this week-end's roster extravaganza only partially does. So, first off, congragulations to Brad Ziegler and Carlos Gonzalez. Welcome to the Show and make us proud to cheer the green-&-gold. 'Cause if you don't, we'll boo you!

Seriously though, I have to tip the cap to Mr. Ziegler. Talent wise, he was a dime-a-dozen RH pitcher who probably wasn't going to make the big leagues. One day near the end of the 2005 season the A's (minor league pitching instructor Ron Romanick in particular) approached Brad and asked him if he'd be willing to change his pitching motion and become a submariner. Flash forward to May 30th, 2008: Brad Ziegler's name is on Oakland's 25 man roster. No matter what happens, no one can ever take away the fact that Brad Ziegler became a big league pitcher.

On to the update.

With the draft coming at the end of the week, I thought I'd do a depth chart that featured a positional breakdown of who the A's have (and where they have them) in an attempt to figure out what type of players the A's might be seeking to draft. (For the record, I had a really bad joke written here involving a polo jock and a kayaker but I removed in an obivous sign of maturity and growth as a writer. The fact that I mention my edit proves I've got a long way to go with the whole maturity thing.) Where was I? I swear, sometimes I think I'm easier to distract than Cindi in a room full of sparkly objects. Speaking of distracted sparkly objects, where the Hell are you Green&GoldGirl?!?! Consider this an official shout-out for you to make your quarterly appearance on AN.

Where the frak was I?

Oh yeah... A's baseball and organizational depth. Things should be pretty self-explanatory once I get started but I want to take a moment to explain the term "fringe prospect". In mine eyes, a fringe prospect is someone who's done enough to maybe have a chance at making the big league roster should an opportunity present itself. At the same time, he hasn't done enough to force the issue in his favor or has something (usually age) going against him and he could very easily get passed up the next time the big league team comes calling. We've just witnessed both extremes of this phenomonom with Brad Ziegler and Kevin Melillo. Make no mistake, 28 year old relief pitchers who aren't even on the 40 man roster are fringe prospects at best but Ziegler has pitched great thus far in AAA and when the need arose in Oakland for a RH bullpen arm the A's were willing to DFA a player to get Ziegler to the Show.

Kevin Melillo is 26 and had a 773 OPS for the River Cats. Not great numbers, but enough for him to be in the mix next season should the A's let Mark Ellis depart as a free agent. I considered Kevin Melillo a fringe prospect in the rough draft of this story and he just got DFA'd, so when I call a guy a "fringe" prospect he could go in any direction. I'm also going to focus on the guys who (I think) are more then organizational roster fill. Some of the calls may seem arbitrary (For example... 28 year old Brad Ziegler: Fringe prospect. 27 year old Justin Knoedler: Roster fill.) so if you've got a favorite that you feel I've slighted feel free to bring him up.

Plus sign after the age = birthday during the 2008 season.

Catcher

MLB: Kurt Suzuki (Team control through 2013); Rob Bowen (Team control through 2011)

AAA: Landon Powell: 26 .167/.287/.389 (FRINGE) I could make a fairly convincing arguement that Powell deserves a higher grade then that, given that he's a switch hitting catcher with pop, patience and strong defensive skills. Cold, hard truth is he's 26 years old, hitting .167 and has had surgery on his left knee twice. I will say this: As an avid Philadelphia Eagles fan I watched Donovan McNabb come back early from a torn ACL to play the 2007 season. He wasn't back to 100% until a full year had passed since the surgery and with that in mind, it could be that part of Powell's early struggles can be due to him playing well beofre that 1 year mark. Landon had his 2nd knee surgery in August, 07 so it might not be until the 2nd half that we see his offensive numbers rise.

AA: Anthony Recker: 24+ .289/.353/.474 (FRINGE) Good bat, weak defense and a little old for AA competition.

A: I'll lump Stockton and Kane County together because nobody on their rosters is doing anything to stand out.

Overall: This is a definite area of weakness in the organization but with Suzuki getting it done in Oakland and under team control for the next 5+ years I don't see the A's using an early draft pick on a catcher unless someone they rate very high falls in their lap. More likely the A's will target a college trained Catcher in the 4th/5th round, maybe someone like UC Davis' Jake Jefferies who's solid behind the plate and has good plate discipline. There are those who'd like to see Bowen get a shot at the starting job over Zook.

1st Base

MLB: Daric Barton (Team control through 2013); Mike Sweeney (Gone after 2008)

AAA: No prospects. Casey Rogowski is roster fill and Wes Bankston, while young enough to still have upside, hasn't shown anything since 2005.

AA: No prospects. Tommy Everidge is 25 and posting a meh-for-a-1B .829 OPS. His MLE is a sub-.600 OPS.

A+: Sean Doolittle: 21+ .337/.424/.643 14 HR (PROSPECT) With Carlos Gonzalez in Oakland, Doolittle becomes the A's top position prospect.

A-: No prospects. Sorry Greg Dowling fans, but 24 and an OPS of .744 does not a prospect make.

Overall: With Barton in Oakland and Doolittle making serious noise (plus Carter, whom I'll talk about in the DH section) the A's do not have a need to spend an early round pick on a player who projects to play 1B/DH in the Show. Let me rephrase that... it would be incredibly stupid for the A's to spend their 1st round pick on a 1st baseman no matter how good his bat. I could see them taking a shot at a bat they absolutely love if it slipped to them in the 2nd round.

2nd Base

MLB: Mark Ellis (Team control through 2008)

AAA: No prospects. Kevin Melillo was a fringe guy but with the DFA who knows where he'll be two weeks from now? Brooks Conrad is 28 and a AAAA player. Cliff Pennington will be discussed in the SS section.

AA: Jesus Guzman: 23+ .351/.400/.564 (PROSPECT) I'm not entirely sold on Guzman. He could end up at 3B but with Melillo's DFA and Ellis' pending Free Agency there's a clear path for Guzman in 2009. Justin Sellers will be discussed as a SS.

A+: No prospects. Joshua Horton is still working at SS.

A-: Larry Cobb: 22+ .330/.380/.464 (FRINGE) An athlete the A's really like, the original plan was to try to make him into a Chone Figgins clone. Looks like that plan has been shelved for now and I have a hunch that Cobb, who started the year at Stockton but couldn't buy a hit, will head back to Cali soon for round 2. He has to hit the ground running when he does or he'll lose his Fringe status.

Overall: Not as barren as it looks, 2nd base is definitely a position in transition for Oakland. All problems go away if the A's sign Ellis to an extension. Melillo was the most obvious band-aid should Ellis depart, I'm sure the A's will want to bring him back should he clear waivers. If that doesn't happen and Ellis leaves then I'm not sure what happens. Petit and maybe Murphy could get shots at the job next Spring Training, with Guzman and even Pennington being (for now) dark horse canidates as well. Yes, Pennington would be in the mix as well. Remember, a 1st round draft pick is a lot like a vampire. Until you've driven a stake through his heart AND cut off his head he's liable to pop up anywhere.

3rd Base

MLB: Eric Chavez (Team control though 2011)

AAA: Jeff Baisley: 25 .293/.372/.491 (FRINGE) Not that old, more-than-solid numbers and a rep for solid defense... so why label him a fringe prospect? Was there ever a better opportunity for Baisley to get a shot then the first two months of 2008? I could see him drawing some (small) trade interest from a 3B starved team but I don't see much of a future for Baisley in Oakland. For a borderline guy like this, sometimes it has nothing to do with what he does on the field and everything to do with circumstances beyond his control.

AA: No prospects. Jesus Guzman was covered at 2nd base but he'd certainly merit a shot here if the opportunity presented itself. Which it doesn't. Brian Snyder is a bust but he plays 3B when Guzman is elsewhere.

A: Lumping two teams together is never a good sign, it basically means I have nothing nice to say. I really, really want to like Stockton's Frank Martinez but I don't.

Overall: Deceptively strong in the upper levels, barren at the low end. The A's have a team option on Chavez for 2011, but are locked in (barring a trade) for the next two and a half years. The only way Baisley gets a shot is if Chavez goes down for an extended period of time... but that just happened and Baisley didn't get a call. Guzman has a more realistic shot at 2B but even he isn't young enough for Chavez's contract to run it's course. The only way Chavez gets traded is if the A's are willing to eat more then half his remaining guaranteed contract or if he gets healthy and produces. 'Course, Chavez gets healthy and produces Beane isn't going to trade him. I really think this is the position to target in the 1st round of the draft. If Ethan Martin is sitting there at 12... it would take an unexpected circumstance for me to choose someone else.

Shortstop

MLB: Bobby Crosby (Team control through 2009)

AAA: Gregorio Petit: 23 .304/.356/.385 (PROSPECT) I realize Petit is in Oakland now, but that's because he's filling in on the bench for an injured Donnie Murphy. Interestingly enough, I still worry about Petit's bat but have bumped his rating up (in my mind) due to Melillo's DFA. Petit has first shot at Oakland's 2nd base gig should Ellis go elsewhere and from there it's an easy enough switch to cover SS if Crosby departs a year later.

AAA: Cliff Pennington: 23+ .260/.379/.314 (AA numbers) (FRINGE) As I said before, 1st round pick = vampire. I love the speed (20 for 21 SB) and walking more then striking out but at some point a guy has to prove he can hit the damn ball. His draft status and the golden opportunity that is the A's long term middle infield situation gives Moneypenny his Fringe status.

AA: No prospects. Although I have a gut hunch that Justin Sellers will do enough to re-visit this call by the end of the year. I don't know what it is, but Sellers always does better when he and Pennington are on seperate teams.

A+: Josh Horton: 22 .293/.404/.365 (FRINGE) I'm probably being harsh with this grade but I still haven't read anything that says Horton can stick at SS long term. Good bat control, an equal number of walks to strike outs but lacking in power and a definite position. If the A's switch him to 2B this season you can say good-bye to Mark Ellis. A position switch now means the A's want to try and fast track Horton so there's a chance he'll be ready in 2009. There's an opening in Midland if the A's decide to part ways with Snyder and bump Guzman to 3B.

A-: No prospects. I want to say Michael Richard because I love his speed and on-base skills but he's 23 going on 24, has been hurt most of the season and his glove will force an eventual move to 2B or CF.

Overall: As much as I want Crosby gone, I concede that finding his imminent replacement no longer holds top priority. Now is the time to start looking though and I expect the A's to go shopping for a college trained SS in the early rounds. But that's largely because I doubt Horton... if the A's think he can stick at SS then they'll probably go after high-upside athletes and arms. Although I wonder what would happen if University of Georgia SS Gordon Beckham was still on the board at #12.

Left Field

MLB: Emil Brown (Gone after 2008)

AAA: Danny Putnam: 25+ .275/.367/.522 (FRINGE) The numbers are OK, but Putnam has been dropped from the 40-man roster and a week ago was demoted to AA. He makes the list only because Brown is a short-timer and no one else has sufficiently stepped up.

AA: No prospects. Joe Gaetti is hitting but he's too old to take serious. Maybe if he was back in AAA...

A+: No prospects. Sorry Archie, but turning 25 in July negates your A-ball performance.

A-: Shane Keough: 21+ .299/.398/.343 (FRINGE) Going out on a limb here, Keough is an athlete who's shown real improvement from last year. Needs to show more power or will get buried quickly.

Overall: Left field has a very basic requirement... hit and you'll play. Assuming Gonzalez in CF and Buck in RF, Aaron Cunningham probably has first dibs in 2009. If the A's think a college bat like Wallace could play LF they might be tempted to take him at #12 and find another stop-gap for 2009.

Center Field

MLB: Carlos Gonzalez (Team control through 2014); Ryan Sweeney (Team control through 2013)

AAA: No prospects. The A's just called up the two guys who'd been playing CF!

AA: Aaron Cunningham: 22 .333/.397/.472 (PROSPECT) He missed a month because of an early injury but he's making up for lost time. Cunningham is probably the last legit OF prospect the A's have above Low-A.

A+: Jermaine Mitchell: 23 .299/.418/.462 vs RHP (FRINGE) Sorry, but LHP eats Mitchell for lunch. I can't go higher then Fringe for a guy looking like a platoon player. He hit lefties last year but the quality of southpaw pitching he's going to face is only going to get better. He needs to adjust or he's a part time player.

A-: Corey Brown: 22 .270/.360/.486 (FRINGE) Some may think this is a bit harsh, but Brown has 64 K in 185 at bats. He's older then most of the pitchers he faces, he spent 3 years in a Div 1 college program and he still has serious contact issues.

Overall: The A's have a lot of talented athletes playing CF in their organization but they all seem to have some kind of question mark. Still, the 2008 draft is weak in the outfield so unless the A's gamble on Hicks they probably won't be looking CF in the early parts of the draft.

Right Field

MLB: Travis Buck (Team control through 2012)

AAA: No prospects. Richie Robnett just came back from stomach surgery and while he has tools galore he's struggled with the actual hitting of the baseball.

AA: No prospects. 25 year old Jon Zeringue does not impress me.

A+: Matt Sulentic: 20 .293/.367/.503 (PROSPECT) Good but not great numbers in a hitting friendly environment, but his youth helps his numbers play up a notch. I'm not sure how good of a RF he plays but his bat should be enough to put him in contention for an eventual corner OF job in Oakland in a couple years.

A-: No prospects. Maybe I should have put Keough here.

Overall: It's Buck or Bust for the next couple years, the A's aren't going to rush Sulentic. I think Beane has enough faith in Buck that he's not going to actively seek a RF-capable bat that could move quickly through the system.

Designated Hitter

MLB: Jack Cust (Team control through 2011); Frank Thomas (Gone after 2008)

AAA/AA: The River Cats and RockHounds don't have designated DH's, they rotate their players through the slot.

A+: Chris Carter: 21 .211/.324/.447 (PROSPECT) 11 HR in 190 at bats plus his performance last year lets Carter squeak into the Prospect group. Huge power but has struggled making contact (63 K) especially recently.

A-: No prospects.

Overall: Aside from Cust, the A's are lacking in big time (as in 40+ HR potential) power threats. Carter might be one of those guys but he's got a ways to go. If the A's don't draft a pitcher with their 2nd round pick I think they go after the biggest college trained power bat they can find.

Starting Pitching

MLB: Rich Harden (Team control through 2009); Joe Blanton (Team control through 2010); Justin Duchscherer (Team control through 2009); Dana Eveland (Team control through 2013); Greg Smith (Team control through 2014); Chad Gaudin (Team control through 2010)

AAA: Gio Gonzalez: 22+ 11 GS 5.37 ERA 53.2 IP 28/51 BB/K (PROSPECT) The numbers don't support the label but Gio is a legit prospect who got his bell rung a few times. 2 of his last 3 starts have been good but he still has a ways to go before he's ready for the Show.

AA: The entire starting rotation! Simmons is hurt but should be back soon, Mazzaro is having a break-out year and while Webb, Bailey and Rodriguez are all having their struggles they've still shown enough to maintain their prospect labels.

A+: Trevor Cahill: 20 11 GS 2.88 ERA 68.2 IP 20/83 BB/K (PROSPECT) The top pitching prospect in the A's system to date.

Brett Anderson: 20 10 GS 5.21 ERA 48.1 IP 14/51 BB/K (PROSPECT) Trying to pitch through a strained thumb caused Anderson to stumble a bit. He's healthy now, as his May 31st start illustrates: 4.0 IP (Pitch count) 4 H 0/6 BB/K.

(Note: Fautino De Los Santos had TJ surgery a week ago and is out until next season.)

A-: Jamie Richmond, Craig Italiano and Scott Mitchinson all warrant Fringe mention. Sorry folks, I'm starting to get tired here.

Overall: Between what's on hand in Oakland and the number of arms coming up the system, SP is the strength of the organization. Unless Crow or Matusz falls to #12 I jusy don't see the A's going after a college trained arm.

Relief Pitching

The A's have a ton of it spread from Oakland to Stockton. They'll probably grab a couple arms before the 10th round just because that's something they like to do.

Kudos to everyone who made it to the end with me. If you'll excuse me, I need a nap!