SB Nation User Blog: grover

2010 Offseason Primer

grover — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:46:46 -0000

If you’re a lot like me you should probably seek a mental health professional.

Wait… wrong website.

If you’re a lot like me the 2009 baseball season is dead to you, the post-season and the World Series a mere footnote in your existence. The A’s are sitting at home after their third straight losing season and you want to know what Billy Beane and Co. are going to do to make the 2010 season a more enjoyable experience for you. Winning more than half their games would be a good start and I’d like to tell you how the A’s can make that happen.

Only one must learn to walk before they can run.

What I strive to do today is to lay the ground work for where the A’s currently sit as an organization; from there perhaps some brainstorming will be possible. Firstly, get thee familiar with Cot’s Baseball Contracts as they have to date info on the 2009-2010 free agent class including Type A compensation ratings.

Next, I’m going to share with a little project I’ve been working on. I started by ripping off the spreadsheet Jeff uses at Cot’s to display future payroll obligations and modified it to include 2009 service time and to list the remaining minor league options for Oakland’s current 40 man roster. The service time numbers should be accurate to within a day or two of the official MLB count which comes out in the Spring and it is unlikely that any discrepancy would result in a change in a player’s arbitration eligibility or future free agent status.

Open if ye seek knowledge.

Guessing arbitration numbers has never been one of my strong suits but I’ll take a stab at it to help bring the 2010 salary figures up to speed.

Mike Wuertz: $2.3 million

Jack Cust: $4.2 million

Scott Hairston: $2.0 million

Rajai Davis: $950 K

Joey Devine: $500 K

Santiago Casilla is also due arbitration this offseason but I’ll discuss his situation a little later. Kurt Suzuki comes the closest to Super-Two status but he falls about 3 weeks short the likely cut-off. All told my (very) tentative arbitration figures total $9.95 million. Add to that the approximately $7.15 million everyone with less than 2.130 days of big league service time will make in 2010 and the final tally is $36.35 million… but to play it safe I’ll call it $37 million even. The A’s had a $62.3 million payroll to start the 2009 season, I’m going to be ultra-conservative about the A’s attendance projections for 2010 and cut the 2009 figure by 20%. That would give the A’s an Opening Day payroll of $49,848,000 or $50 million to keep with my tendency for rounded numbers. So in theory, the A’s have $13 million in cash to play with this offseason.

We need to take a closer look at the A’s roster before discussing how the A’s should spend that money. Oakland (and every other team in baseball) has to submit their Reserve list (aka 40 man roster) by November 20. Any player currently on the 60-day DL gets added back into the mix. There are currently 41 names on Oakland’s 40 man roster, although 5 of those are free agents-to-be Justin Duchscherer, Brett Tomko, Bobby Crosby, Nomar Garciaparra and Adam Kennedy. All 5 are expected to file for free agency even though there seems to be some interest by both sides to see Duke and Kennedy in Oakland next year. That drops the protected list to 36 and the A’s have 6 players that need to be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft in December.

Chris Carter and Fautino de los Santos are near mortal locks to be added to the 40 man. Pedro Figueroa, Anthony Recker, Jared Lansford and Cory Wimberly are all at risk of being pursued in December if they are left exposed. Figueroa is a lefty with a pulse and a 90+ MPH fastball; the A’s have already indicated that they plan on protecting him this go-around. Recker impressed the organization with his development in 2009 and a catcher with his power potential would be easy to stash on a big league roster for a season as the back up backstop. Lansford has a power arm but some lingering make-up/health issues. Still, I think there’s a good chance the A’s find room to protect him because he’s Carney Lansford’s son and Dave Stewart’s client… both of whom are former teammates of Billy Beane. But it’s not just sentiment that would drive this decision. When Jared was drafted most teams preferred him as a pitcher but the Lansfords made it clear that Jared expected to sign as a position player. This caused Lansford to drop in the draft until the A’s were able to snag him near the end of the 2nd round when, lo and behold, Jared was more than willing to forsake his bat and signed with Oakland as a pitcher. I’m guessing some quid pro quo is in order this November. Wimberly is a guy the A’s like but I’m just not sure how he fits in an organization that already has Jemile Weeks in AA and Adrian Cardenas in AAA.

So how do we fit a minimum of 5 players into a 40 man roster with only 4 available spots AND allow for the A’s to pursue free agents and/or someone in the Rule 5 draft?

When I look at the current 40 man roster I see 4 players that I consider nothing more than dead weight. Santiago Casilla has pitched poorly the last two seasons when he’s been available to pitch, he’s out of options and he’s due a decent pay bump via arbitration. The A’s bullpen already has Bailey, Wuertz and Ziggy entrenched, plus Devine coming back and Jeff Gray, Jon Meloan and Henry Rodriguez waiting in the wings. The A’s have RH bullpen arms aplenty; there is no reason to pay more than league minimum to an ineffective pitcher like Casilla. On a similar note: Jay Marshall… why bother? He barely pitched in 2009 and when he did he didn’t do well. He’s buried behind Breslow, Blevins and now Kilby. The A’s can probably outright Marshall to AAA and re-sign him to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. Or he could sign elsewhere and no one would notice.

Tommy Everidge has a nice story in 2009, but what he offers as a player is somewhat limited. He’s a 1B with a bit of RH pop and he has the ability to play some 3B without causing a biblical plague to fall upon us. Chris Carter has the same limitations and a whole lot more upside, so why waste your time on the Albertson’s charcoal filtered vodka when Grey Goose is in stock at a lower price? Chris Denorfia is 29 years old, he’s out of options, he didn’t hit that great in AAA last season and his surgically repaired elbow is hurting him enough to make him pull out of Winter Ball. I’d rather have Recker or Lansford protected then keep Denorfia on the 40 man. Releasing all 4 players would create enough space on the 40 man roster to protect Carter, DLS, Figueroa, Recker and Lansford while still leaving 3 spots open for Rule 5 or Free Agent acquisitions and the organization wouldn’t have lost anyone they haven’t already replaced with better options.

There are other roster positions to consider as well, as 2010 strikes me as the year that the A’s need to figure out what they have in terms of position talent. Scott Hairston has been called out by the A’s management and while he’s currently the front runner to start in LF next year the organization needs to find out what Aaron Cunningham and Travis Buck can do. They each have 1 option year remaining but they have little left to prove in AAA. Does either one have a future in Oakland? Big league playing time is the only way to answer that question and if Hairston does not show the A’s that he is clearly the superior corner outfielder during Spring Training than Oakland might want to send him packing and let Buck and Cunningham fight it out in LF. Once the A’s know what they have in Cunningham, Buck, Hairston, Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney they’ll be in a better position to make informed decisions on the futures of Chris Carter, Sean Doolittle and Jemile Weeks. Will those prospects be needed in the outfield or will they need to find homes in the infield?

I like the 1 year contract the Boston Red Sox gave Brad Penny last year. Sure, he didn’t work out in Beantown but the idea of a 40% cut in his 2008 base salary and incentives to cover if Penny started or relieved has merit. It looks like the A’s are going to shop for a SP during the offseason and I’d be curious to see what kind of traction they could get with a similar offer. The two arms that most intrigue me are Duke and Brett Myers.

Justin Duchscherer: $3.9 million salary in 2009

$2.5 million base

$500 K for 150, 160, 170, 180 IP

$500 K for 50, 60, 70 G or 30 GF

$1.5 million for 200 IP or 40 GF

Brett Myers: $12 million salary in 2009

$6 million base

$500 K for160, 170, 180, 190 IP

$500 K for 55, 65, 75 G or 35 GF

$1 million for 200 IP or 50 GF

I admit the idea of $6 million guaranteed for a bullpen bound Myers is less than appealing, but I’m not really expecting him to pitch in relief. It might end up that the relief portion of the offer is dropped altogether. In the "Go B.I.G. or go home" method of mayhem, signing both pitchers might be the best expenditure of funds available to the A’s. At $8.5 million guaranteed your maybe getting at least as much reliability (combined) as the Braves are about to get by re-signing Hudson at $9 million annual with the possibility of more production and better trade value. Pencil Duke and Myers behind Braden and Anderson and if they bounce back to their previous performance levels the A’s rotation will be much stronger than it was in 2009. That also means Cahill, Mazzaro and Gio will fight it out for the 5th spot with the losers of that contest being optioned to AAA to work on whatever needs a-fixin’.

What about 3B?

Chavez is as tangible as a mirage and the A’s are making noises that they’d like to bring Adam Kennedy back in 2010. Which kind of make sense if the A’s believe that Brett Wallace can eventually handle the hot corner in the Show. No sense signing Adrian Beltre to a long term deal if you’ve got Wallace maybe 3 months away, right? Problem is, every time someone from the A’s Front Office gets asked about Wallace’s defense at 3B they do the most exquisite dance to avoid answering the question.

The A’s have a plethora of arms in the bullpen and it would make sense for them to try and move some arms to patch holes elsewhere. Still, it’s been argued time and again how fungible relief pitching can be and smart teams tend to find quality arms on the cheap year in and year out. This would, of course, diminish the trade value of someone like Mike Wuertz who had the 3rd highest WAR score of any relief pitcher in 2009. And while there are some teams who suck at finding cheap pitching they’re at least smart enough to hide behind the refrain of searching for a low cost alternative. So I suggest raising the stakes and packaging Wuertz with Breslow. The two combined to throw 134 innings and earned 3 WAR for the A’s. They’re under team control for at least the next two seasons and they’ll cost under $3 million in 2010. There aren’t a lot of teams that are looking for bullpen help who’ll try and pull the low cost alternative argument in the face of that kind of cost and potential production. Breslow is easily replaced by Blevins and/or Kilby while the A’s have RH bullpen arms stacked behind Wuertz.

That’s it from me… you are now properly prepared to speculate about this off-season’s potential moves. Have fun!

Muppet Thoughts

grover — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 02:23:46 -0000

The minor league season is over and the Arizona Fall League has yet to begin. Baseball America has begun their League Top 20 lists but they haven’t hit anywhere where the A’s have qualifying individuals. Winter ball is months away (although today it seems as if winter itself is close at hand) and the A’s are being their typical tight-lipped selves regarding the goings on in Instructs. So don’t expect much in the way of minor league discussion in today’s write up. What will I talk about?

Glad you asked.

Next year’s Free Agent options, the current 2010 payroll and some interesting service time tidbits, why using FIP or any other metric to argue Cahill’s place in Oakland’s 2010 rotation is missing the point, a moment of praise to Rajai Davis’ base running skills and… I don’t know… whatever I bloody well want.

If that sounds interesting to you then I’ll see you on the flip side.

Let’s talk about money.

Money, money, money, money, money, money.

Let’s face it, we live in a capitalist society and (most of us on AN, anyways) in a country with a WTF?!?! economy that makes risky investments a rather unattractive idea. The San Diego Padres, the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs are just 3 recent examples of how quickly an organization’s financial situation can change. The 2009 A’s opened up the season with a $62.3 million payroll and we know that Wolff and Fisher don’t consider the team to be a public philanthropy. The Oakland A’s are a business, and businessmen expect to turn a profit. It is difficult to turn a profit when you have no customers (I learned that in my college economics class) and the A’s have drawn fewer paying customers than any other team in major league baseball. While revenue sharing and national media deals will provide a solid chunk of money for 2010 the A’s do not draw a great deal of income through local TV or stadium licensing, meaning the loss of approximately a quarter million attendees could have an impact on the amount of money the A’s have to spend on player payroll in 2010.

Looking at the current roster and trying to anticipate the arbitration cases of 8 different players, it appears to me that the A’s have $38 million committed in salary to next year’s roster. (Keep in mind that I’ve tried to pad that figure, ‘cause it’s always easier to pocket any left over cash than it is to find more cash when the bills are due. Also, I’ve got a bit of a thing for round numbers and counting by quarters.) Let’s look at those arbitration eligible players. Eric Munson and Edgar Gonzalez might be best described as fringe level big league players, but the only way the A’s could insure that they could retain their services for next season would be to offer them arbitration. Otherwise, the A’s would need to release them and try to bid for their services as free agents. I think that is the more likely scenario, as the A’s should be more interested in finding cheap vets they can sign to minor league deals than in keeping replacement-level talent at inflated rates.

Santiago Casilla is eligible for arbitration for the first time but the combination of his injuries, his ineffectiveness and the depth of power RH arms in the A’s farm system leads me to believe that AKA Jairo Garcia will be moving on to another team. Joey Devine is coming back from season ending elbow surgery and that will probably keep his 2010 salary down, although I am still penciling in a raise to $750K. Michael Wuertz is due a huge pay bump, at least doubling his $1.1 million 2009 salary. He didn’t get many opportunities to close and arbiters tend to be distracted by shiny things like saves, so I’m figuring he’ll earn a $2.5 million salary for next year. Before I move on to the arby-eligible hitters, I want to point out that Dana Eveland is no longer looking at arbitration for next season. His early season demotion hit his service time tally very hard and he simply doesn’t have the days in to qualify for arbitration. This means the A’s have the option to bring Eveland back at $420K next season. The only downside is it looks like (assuming I’ve counted things right) that the A’s used Eveland’s last option in 2009 and if he doesn’t pitch well enough to make the Opening Day big league roster next year the A’s would have to expose him to waivers before they could send him to the minors. Which wouldn’t be a great loss, but it is a factor to consider before deciding to invest the time and effort in giving Eveland another chance next Spring. Perhaps the coaching and innings would be better served going to another option?

Scott Hairston hasn’t performed like the A’s had hoped since they acquired him from the Padres but his early season numbers will insure a pay increase for next season. I think his late season injuries and his struggling 2nd half performance will prevent him from doubling his salary but I can see him collecting $2 million next year. Rajai Davis has only a half season of excellence to make him some money and I don’t think that UZR gets factored into the arbitration process but 40 SB is sexy and shiny. I expect Davis to more than quadruple his 2009 salary and earn a $1.75 million payday. Jack Cust leads the A’s in HR and BB but also in K’s and is a distant 2nd in RBI. UZR might not factor in the decision making process but general defensive suckitude does. I think Cust goes from $2.8 million to $4.25 million next season, although I wouldn’t blink twice if that figure went up another half million. But my official guess is 4 and a quarter.

Altogether, a $38 million commitment to the 2010 payroll.

That means the A’s have some spending money next year. But where to spend it and how much is there to spend? I doubt the A’s are going to bump the payroll beyond the $62.3 million figure from 2009 and in fact I expect to see it drop by roughly $10 million. Where am I getting that low-50’s number? Call it a gut reaction to the state of the team and the AL West, plus the lack of intriguing free agent options. The A’s are looking at a serious influx of position talent by the end of next season and it seems unlikely that the team would invest heavily in free agent vets that could potentially block the young talent and/or become expensive bench options. There are obvious holes in the roster but little in the way of value to be had in the current free agent crop.

One of the places where a major investment and change would be welcomed (by the fans, anyway) is at 3rd base. Eric Chavez is in the last guaranteed year of his contract and has barely made it on to the field over the last 3 years. There are at least 4 credible options on the free agent market that could give the A’s an immediate boost at the hot corner. Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins all offer the right mix of offense and defense that teams demand at 3rd base these days. DeRosa offers some defensive versatility and enough bat that his team will be looking to find a place to play him. The downside to DeRosa is he’s a Type A free agent and he turns 35 next February, meaning his decline could come swift and soon. Glaus is coming off a shoulder injury but should be ready to go next Spring and at 33 might be looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish himself before going for 1 last big payday. He’s got enough glove to handle 3rd base should Chavez be unable to make it onto the field and his bat would play well at 1st base in the unlikely scenario that Chavez is healthy.

Figgins is intriguing because of his versatility and out of all the big ticket 3rd base options he’s actually healthy! He’ll be 32 next season and is probably looking for a 4 year deal. The cool thing about Figgins is you don’t have to worry about him blocking some stud prospect’s path, he’s got the athleticism and experience to play almost anywhere on the field. The downside is he’s a Type A free agent (yeah, me loving that 2nd round pick) and his name has been mentioned with so many teams that if even half of them are truly interested in him the A’s would be in a bidding war to land him. Beltre is battling injuries this year but he doesn’t turn 31 until the beginning of next season. Still, he picked a bad year to hit like crap. His glove is still top notch but the reality is the A’s gave up on Jack Hannahan (a quality defender at 3rd base and according to UZR a near equal to Beltre) to keep Adam Kennedy’s bat in the line-up. It’s going to take at least a 3 year deal to land Beltre (I’m guessing 3/$27 million but I could be way off) and when you think about it, the A’s would be paying all that cash for Beltre’s bat. Another thing to consider, if you believe in Brett Wallace the 3rd baseman at all, signing Beltre creates a problem. Adrian earns most of his value via the glove; his bat doesn’t play well at 1st base. You could, of course, slide Wallace to 1st base but that defeats the whole idea of him playing at the hot corner. You better decide where Brett Wallace fits in the field before paying Adrian Beltre serious coin.

There are a couple other 3rd base options that get brought up around AN on occasion. Adam Kennedy made a decent stop gap option at 3rd base this season and the A’s have already said they’d consider bringing him back. Akinori Iwamura is one of those under-rated gems that everyone knows about and thus the pursuit will resemble a piranha feeding frenzy. Joe Crede is on his way out of Minnesota but he’ll be 32 and is heading towards his 2nd back surgery and are you out of your fucking mind?! 32 and double back surgery describes Eric Chavez, that’s not a pairing we should wish the A’s to make.

If the A’s are looking to make a free agent splash, the value looks to be in the starting pitching ranks. If the D’backs decide to bid bon voyage to Brandon Webb I say the A’s need to go all in and offer him a big money deal to bring him to Oakland. Yes, he hurt his shoulder and missed almost the entire season but there was no damage to the labrum and forget about any loss of awesomeness due to changing leagues… his groundball and strike out tendencies will play well in the AL. Barring that admittedly less-than-likely scenario, Justin Duchscherer and Brett Myers might make great candidates for 1 year deals to re-establish themselves in 2010. I mean no disrespect when I say that Duke needs to get his head on straight before trying to pitch again next season. They have said they’d be interested in bringing him back next season but the onus is on Justin getting his life in order. Myers needs to get healthy and I’m guessing a change of scenery would do him good. At 29 he’s still young enough to have more than a few solid seasons if he can get his act together.

But do the A’s really need to invest potentially limited funds into the starting rotation? I mean, adding a healthy Brandon Webb is pretty much a no-brainer, especially if you can get him for a discounted rate and not the $20+ million annual C.C. Sabathia is getting from the Yankees. The answer seems to lie in how you feel about Trevor Cahill. If you hear his name and think rainbows and puppies than you’re probably disinclined to spend free agent dollars on a big ticket pitcher. If hearing "Cahill" causes you to grind your teeth than you’re probably wondering why I didn’t list Jason Marquis as a viable free agent option. Me? I think puppies.

I’ve heard the arguments for sending Cahill down to AAA to start next season. I personally feel that the best place for Cahill to work on his breaking stuff is at the big league level, however if the coaching staff disagrees then I’m more than happy to yield to their wisdom. But I’m willing to bet Curt Young isn’t spending his time on AN arguing about how Trevor Cahill needs AAA seasoning. The principle argument on AN in demoting Cahill centers around his FIP (or tRA but either number will do) courtesy of Fangraphs. FIP, for those who have ignored this discussion so far but are now drawn in by my dulcet tones, is essentially what we could expect the pitcher’s ERA to be if we could factor out team defense. Fangraphs lists 77 starting pitchers as throwing enough innings/pitching enough games to qualify for their statistical leader board. Hit the button to compare FIP and proceed to the last page, ‘cause as of 9/22 Trevor Cahill ranked last in baseball with a FIP of 5.30.

It’s a fairly simple logic stream. You’ve got a young pitcher whom we all knew was being rushed posting the worst luck-independent numbers in baseball. Why waste his service time watching him get his butt kicked when we can send him down to AAA where he belongs? My problem with that logic is, that while Cahill’s FIP score is an accurate interpretation of his 2009 season performance it doesn’t actually reflect how well he pitched this year. We knew that there were going to be days when Cahill was going to get his head handed to him on a platter. The guy had barely any experience outside of A-ball and his mechanics where inconsistent. His minor league performance carried indicators (BB/9 rate) that his game needed more polish. We knew all this and still the A’s put him on their 2009 Opening Day roster.

So why are folks so intent on punishing Cahill for living up to our expectations? I looked at the box scores of the 30 games Cahill had pitched in this season, and in 9 of those contests he either allowed 5 or more runs (earned/unearned, doesn’t matter on the scoreboard) and/or failed to pitch a full 5 innings. I don’t care what metric you choose to believe in, there isn’t a baseball fan among us who wouldn’t say that those games represent a failure on the part of the pitcher in giving his team a chance to win. Cahill earned his bottom feeding FIP in those 9 games. When you look at his record of performance you see a wide variation in outcomes and all FIP does is draw a line and say "this is the average outcome". And there’s nothing wrong with that except that it doesn’t provide a full, detailed picture of what Cahill did this season. So I asked a second question: How good did Trevor Cahill pitch this year?

Unfortunately, before I could answer my question I had to figure out how I was going to answer my question! A few years back someone (I don’t care whom) started talking about Quality Starts. The basic premise was a SP got credited with a QS anytime he lasted a minimum of 6 IP and gave up no more than 3 ER. This would help balance out those days when a pitcher just got crushed and his numbers would (unfairly?, undeservedly?) drag down his overall line. I don’t know if this was in response to Coors Field or maybe because it was the Steroid era, but while the basic idea had some merit the parameters sucked. 3 ER in 6 IP? That’s a 4.50 ERA, not exactly what I call quality from my SP.

So I decided to apply the same basic concept to the 77 SP on Fangraphs’ leader board pages, only this time I made the rules more strict. No more than 2 runs (earned/unearned count the same on the scoreboard) over a minimum of 6 IP. Then I decided to add an extra tier, so 3 runs allowed over a minimum of 7 full IP would also count on the Good side. Then I went over the game logs of every qualifying SP (further explaining the 9/22 cut-off date) and simply added up how many HQS (High Quality Starts… yeah, I expect a point deduction from the Russian judge for my lack of creativity) to see how well Mr. Worst-FIP-in-Baseball pitched.

Trevor Cahill pitched 14 HQS, tying him with 8 other SP including Cole Hamels, John Lackey, Scott Feldman and Yovani Gallardo.

14 HQS is also higher score than the performances from Andy Pettite, Barry Zito, Brett Anderson, Carlos Zambrano, Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, Rich Porcello, Roy Oswalt and 18 other big league SP who posted better FIP than Trevor Cahill.

I am not saying that this means Trevor Cahill is a better pitcher than all these guys. I am saying that on the days when Cahill’s talent outweighed his inexperience he pitched like a legitimate big league SP. And here’s the thing about inexperience, it goes away after a time. The 174 (and counting) IP that Cahill has accumulated this year with the A’s has been an invaluable learning experience for him and it should make him less prone to the epic disasters he created 9 times as a raw and unready rookie. Trevor Cahill is far from a finished project and it may be that next year the A’s will decide that the best place for him to work on his breaking ball or his mechanics or his interview clichés is in Sacramento and I’ll be fine with that.

But don’t tell me his FIP dictates the A’s purchase his bus ticket 6 months in advance.

One last things as this post has gone far longer than I intended… I mentioned this in another thread but I feel it bears repeating. With a little over half-a-season’s worth of playing time Bill James ranks Rajai Davis as the 4th best base runner in all of baseball. This is counting Davis’ stolen base and base running performance, and on a team lacking in power those skills are very important (even in a non-starting role) to help create runs.

Alright, I’ve rattled on long enough. Sorry for the lateness of today’s Front Page write up but folks seemed to be enjoying the Davis and Holliday themed articles already up. Besides, you can’t rush greatness.

Or in my case… my typing.

And thank you for your support.

Minor League Update: Season's End

grover — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 12:11:20 -0000

The 2009 minor league season is over and congratulations are due to the Midland RockHounds, who won the Texas League crown by defeating the NW Arkansas Naturals 3 games to 1. The Sacramento River Cats were not so fortunate, getting swept by the Memphis Redbirds in 3 games. All in all it was a fairly successful year for the farm system, as several prospects that were under a lot of scrutiny had good seasons while 3 of the 4 full season teams posted winning records. (Heck, even the Stockton Ports managed to rebound in the 2nd half and go 36-34 to finish with a 61-79 overall record.)

I plan on doing a full summary of the farm system a little later on. For today I’m going to update what key players did in the play-offs. Minorleaguesplits.com is the only website that I know of that keeps track of play-off performance as part of the yearly tally but even they only show the numbers as part of the whole body of work. So if you ever wonder why the numbers from their website are different from what you will see at MiLB.com it’s on account of the play-off performance. The season totals listed below include the play-off numbers.

Chris Carter

AAA Postseason: 8-27, 1 D, 4 HR, 4 BB, 8 K (296/387/778)

AA-AAA Total: 567 AB, 44 D, 2 T, 32 HR, 89 BB, 137 K (330/423/584) .389 BABIP

MLE: 597 AB, 34 D, 1T, 25 HR, 62 BB, 151 K (258/330/444) .306 BABIP

Carter was the breakout performer in the organization and the A’s have tried him in the outfield in addition to 1B in an effort to find somewhere, anywhere to play his bat. Oakland seems very eager to see what Carter can do; as they discussed adding him to the 40 man roster after the River Cats’ season ended so he could get a cup of coffee with the A’s. Instead they’ve secured a spot for him in the Mexican Pacific League to play Winter Ball. For those who aren’t familiar with the MPL the quality of the competition is generally considered to be AAA caliber. You’ll see a lot of familiar names in the box scores and the A’s hope Carter will be able to handle the steady diet of quality breaking stuff he’s likely to see. If Carter has a strong Winter Ball season expect the A’s to give him a shot at a job on the 2010 Opening Day roster during Spring Training.

Brett Wallace

AAA Postseason: 8-27, 1 T, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3K (296/345/593)

AA-AAA Total: 550 AB, 26 D, 1 T, 21 HR, 47 BB, 115 K (293/365/458) .338 BABIP

MLE: 568 AB, 21 D, 1 T, 16 HR, 34 BB, 125 K (250/305/375) .295 BABIP

TotalZone gives Wallace an average defensive score at 3B but as you can see, his strike zone judgment needs a bit more improvement and his power numbers could tick up some as well. I haven’t seen anything that says Wallace will play Winter Ball, but my guess is he’ll spend time at the A’s facility in Arizona working on his defense and basically getting to know the folks in the organization. He won’t be a part of Instructs per se, but I imagine he’ll get some time in. The A’s don’t appear to be as aggressive about promoting Wallace as they do Carter but I’m sure that could change depending on what moves the A’s make in the offseason. If Wallace ends up back in Sacramento to start next season, rest assured his time there will be contingent on how long it takes for the A’s medical staff to begin their post-mortem on Eric Chavez.

Adrian Cardenas

AAA Postseason: 10-27, 3 D, 4 BB, 4K (370/452/481)

AA-AAA Total: 530 AB, 44 D, 4 T, 4 HR, 57 BB, 75 K (304/369/425) .348 BABIP

MLE: 548 AB, 36 D, 2 T, 3 HR, 40 BB, 82 K (246/295/336) .285 BABIP

I think Cardenas could easily surpass his MLE next season; the guy seems to be a natural born hitter. The A’s rave about his hitting ability and think 2B is the best fit for him at this time. Given Ellis’ track record for not staying healthy there’s a good chance we’ll see Cardenas in the Green & Gold at some point next season. The 52 extra-base hits are an encouraging sign as heading into the 2009 season his power was heavy on the potential and very little on the applied side of things.

Tyson Ross

AA Postseason: 12.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 19 K (1.49 ERA)

A-AA Total: 155.2 IP, 125 H, 64 ER, 56 BB, 132 K (3.71 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

Ross was absolutely dominant in the postseason for the RockHounds and he probably has the best stuff of any SP currently pitching in the A’s farm system. (Note the phrasing before you comment!) Consistency is an issue for Ross, but a year from now the A’s might be trying to find room for his power arm.

And once again, thank you for your support.

Minor League Update: 9-15-2009 A Picture's Worth a Thousand Words... I didn't have that much to say

grover — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:09:39 -0000

First, the really cool news.

The Sacramento River Cats and the Midland RockHounds have both advanced to the next round of their respective play-offs. The River Cats are going for their 3rd consecutive PCL crown and what’s great about this season’s squad is that the current roster includes a fair number of high end prospects. Exposing them to the pressures of play-off baseball (even if it’s the minor leagues) can only help their development as ballplayers. The A’s have always believed that winning in the minors is important; as it helps the individual players unite as a team to strive towards a common goal.

Now if only we could get the organization to start winning in Oakland again… that would be a good thing. (Mean? Probably. Honest? Brutally.)

And how well are these wonder prospects doing in a play-off environment? I’ll tell you after the jump… so come on over!

You know you want to.

AAA

Henry Rodriguez: 1.1 IP 0 H 4 BB 2 K 3 ER

Sam Demel: 1.2 IP 3 H 0 BB 3 K 0 ER

Chris Carter: 5-17 4 HR 2 BB 5 K

Adrian Cardenas: 7-15 2 D 3 BB 2 K

Brett Wallace: 5-17 1 T 2 HR 2 BB 1 K

Graham Godfrey: 6.2 IP 1 H 3 BB 5 K 0 ER

Tyson Ross: 6.1 IP 4 H 2 BB 8 K 2 ER

Mickey Storey: 4.2 IP 3 H 0 BB 5 K 0 ER

Jemile Weeks: 4-13 1 HR 2 BB 2 K

Josh Donaldson: 3-16 1 D 2 HR 1 BB 5 K

Matt Spencer: 7-15 2 HR 2 BB 1 K

Corey Brown: 1-8 5 K

Shane Peterson: 3-15 1 D 1 BB 4 K

The numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Chris Carter… he hits ball really far. Ross had maybe his best start in AA and Mickey Storey has been nothing short of sensational this year, pitching for Kane County, Stockton, Midland and Sacramento. He has, amazingly enough, given up only 8 walks while striking out 71 in 51.2 IP.

The A’s are sending/inviting 36 players to Instructs this fall. I’m not going to write up the whole list but the notable names include 2009 draftees Ian Krol, Paul (Haven’t given up a run in the first 25 games of my pro career) Smyth, Josh Leyland, Max Stassi, Conner Crumbliss, Grant Green, Stephen Parker and Myrio Richard. Third rounder Justin Marks might join halfway through if he gets over a groin injury. Other folks of interest include Ben Hornbeck, Brett Hunter, Fautino de los Santos, Anthony Capra, Michael Ynoa, Nino Leyja, Jeremy Barfield, Rubin Rosario and Rashun Dixon.

The Oakland contingent to the AFL has been decided, health permitting. Jemile Weeks, Corey Brown, Grant Desme, Clayton Mortensen, James Simmons, Justin Friend and Sam Demel get to be Desert Dogs this year.

There’s a rumor that the A’s might call up Brett Wallace and Chris Carter after Sacramento’s season ends, but that would mean first putting them on the 40 man roster. It would be a dick move but I could see the A’s releasing Nomar and placing Chris Denorfia on waivers to make room for Carter and Wallace. I’m not particularly attached to Garciaparra but firing the guy with 2 weeks left in the season would be a classless move.

In a recent interview with Scout.com A’s Director of Player Development Keith Lieppman said that the A’s consider 2B to be the best place for Cardenas. He sees Carter at 1B long term and counts Wallace strictly as a 3B. It is what it is, but the A’s seem to be fast tracking Jemile Weeks; if Cardenas is destined for 2B then ultimately wither Weeks? Keep an eye out during the AFL to see if Weeks plays some OF.

And thank you for your support.

Minor League Update: The 2010 Pitch(ing)

grover — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:13:40 -0000

Today we look at the A’s starting pitching depth in the minor leagues. I realize that the Oakland rotation is composed of several young arms (a couple of whom probably still carry fake ID’s just in case) but young SP are worth their weight in gold for any organization. They are the premier currency in the trade market and given how unpredictable pitching can be in general (plus the high rate of injury) an abundance of arms can quickly turn into just enough to get by. In short, for a professional baseball organization, cheap and young pitching is better than sex.

With twins.

So let’s check out the prospects.

Pitching prospects! Not the prospects for…you know. Jeez, get you minds out of the gutter.

Projected (by lovable, furry me) 2010 minor league rotations, full season leagues. The number in parenthesis represents the player’s age in 2010.

AAA

Graham Godfrey (25)

James Simmons (23)

Clayton Mortensen (25)

Travis Banwart (24)

Kyle Middleton (30)

Probably the least appealing starting 5 in the A’s system, there’s a decent chance that Justin Souza (who’s been shelled with the RockHounds since coming over in a trade) could take the place of Middleton. I basically made Middleton the 5^th guy ‘cause he pitched well enough as a mid-season FA signing that I think he deserves to use pro ball as a means to put food on the table in 2010. Godfrey and Mortensen will be at that magic age where they’ll either prove that they’ve got what it takes to get a shot as a SP or move into the bullpen. Simmons is plenty young to turn things around but the numbers say he pitches up in the zone too much and he doesn’t have the blazing fastball (or the nasty breaking curveball) to get away with that. The man needs a 2-seam fastball, stat! Banwart didn’t exactly overwhelm the Texas League but he finished the year pitching decent and there are younger, more talented arms that I’d like to see in Midland next year. So its sink-or-swim time for Travis next year in Sacramento.

Tyson Ross (23)

Arnold Leon (21)

Anthony Capra (23)

Ben Hornbeck (22)

Justin Souza (24)

Starting with the old guy first, Souza pitched well in the Southern League before becoming a RockHound so let’s not judge the guy solely on his 5 GS in the Texas League. Carlos Hernandez got called back up to Midland for the play-off run but he’s going to need better pixie dust next year to thrive in AA. Still, put him in the running for the 5th spot in Midland’s 2010 rotation. Capra and Hornbeck spent almost all of 2009 in A-ball (Kane County and Stockton) and I don’t see any performance-based reason that they wouldn’t earn tickets to Midland next year. Neither lefty has a blazing fastball, but both have enough zip to go with the ability to change speeds and throw their breaking stuff for strikes. As Mr. Sickels often says, AA is the acid test for control pitchers. Leon and Ross posses the low-90’s heat that appeals to many and a strong 2010 performance would put either one in line for a big league look.

High-A

Pedro Figueroa (24)

Ken Smalley (22)

Shawn Haviland (24)

Fautino de los Santos (24)

Julio Ramos (22)

The return of DLS to full season ball is the highlight of this bunch and A’s fans can only hope his stay in Stockton is short. Figueroa and Haviland need to get a move on or they’ll find themselves shuttled off to the bullpen. Figueroa needs to on the 40 man or the A’s risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft, and if he’s going to be on the 40 man roster he’s going to be under more scrutiny to prove he deserves the roster slot. He’s got arm strength but he needs to show he can pitch, not just throw hard. I expect the A’s to be aggressive with promoting him if he has early success in 2010. Haviland is a smart guy (he graduated from Harvard) who knows how to pitch but does he have the stuff? Smalley needs to tighten up his control and might be better off in the bullpen but I want to see how well he holds up in a non-pitcher friendly park before sending him to the pen. I don’t have a scouting report on Julio Ramos, but he’s got strong numbers, is young and left handed so I’d like to see the A’s challenge him by having him skip Kane County altogether and keep him in Stockton next year.

Low-A

Murphy Smith (22)

Anvioris Ramirez (22)

Mathieu Leblanc Poirier (23)

Daniel Strailey (21)

Ronny Morla (22)

Ramirez put up solid numbers for the Cougars in a late season audition and it looks like that’s where he’ll be starting again in 2010. Morla had strong strike out numbers for Vancouver and looks about ready to try a full season league, the ML’s pitcher friendly parks seem like a good place to do that. Strailey is a 2009 draft pick that made short work of the NW short-season league. Smith is another ’09 draftee who obviously needs a bit more time in Kane County… and that’s not meant as a criticism. Most draftees don’t get sent straight to full season leagues, which is essentially what happened with Murphy. Poirier didn’t hack it in a trial with Stockton this season and I needed a 5th name to put on the list for the Cougars.

Summary

The system lacks an overwhelming, Ace-like SP prospect (sorry Inoa, you’ve got to actually get into a couple games before I go there) but there is solid depth and enough potential that we could see a couple break-out candidates. Leon, Ramos, Ramirez and Morla represent a rebirth of the Latin American SP prospect in the Oakland organization and hopefully I’ll be able to track down some scouting reports this off-season. The AAA arms will probably produce a back-end SP for the A’s in 2010, although I have a sneaky suspicion that Mortensen is going to end up in the bullpen down the road. I really like the front 4 in my projected Midland rotation.

And thank you for your support.

Minor League Update, September 1st

grover — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:34:56 -0000

My timing is impeccable.

The morning after the A’s score 8 runs and Chris Carter hits 3 homeruns for the River Cats I come to AN to post a story about how underwhelming the Oakland offense has been and how we can’t expect to see any help from the farm system until July of 2010.

Gosh how I love feeling timely and relevant.

Today’s Minor League Update is my attempt to gauge when the Oakland A’s offense can expect to receive reinforcements from internal sources, i.e. the farm system. My estimates are meant to be conservative, as I don’t want to see players bounced back and forth between Oakland and Sacramento. When I post a player’s ETA it’s meant to be a permanent arrival… until Billy Beane trades him, of course.

Chris Carter: LF; ETA: July, 2010

The A’s have said time and again that once a player has success at AA the possibility of him being called up increases dramatically. The reality with our favorite baseball organization has traditionally been much more conservative, as the A’s under Beane almost never called up a player until he’d seen a fair amount of time in AAA. Then this season happened and Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, the top pitching prospects in the system, end up on the Opening Day roster with no more than 2 months experience above High-A ball! So we should expect to see the top hitting prospect in next year’s Opening Day line-up… right?

Not so fast. Carter’s AA line of 337/435/576 is oh so pretty, but he’s shown a tendency over the past couple seasons to start slowly. In 2008 he didn’t start hitting until June and this season the power didn’t start flowing until the second half of May, not hitting his 4th home run until May 18. Carter hasn’t exactly taken AAA by storm (OK, clouds were building last night) and I think he’s going to need some time to make a few more adjustments before making the Show. Give him a couple months next year to get his feet under him in AAA and let him make his big league debut when he’s going full tilt.

Brett Wallace: 1B; ETA: June 2010

Brett Wallace is one of the best hitting prospects in the minor leagues, but he’s barely a year out of college and his AAA line of 295/344/444 with 17 doubles and 13 home runs doesn’t exactly scream DOMINATOR. So sure, the A’s could rush him and start him in the Oakland next Opening Day… then probably have to send him down to Sac by early May so he can get his swing figured out. Let’s be proactive here and skip the demotion! I say give him 6 weeks to beat the snot out of AAA pitching and call him up when the rest of the PCL is willing to buy his bus ticket just to get him out of the league.

Adrian Cardenas: 3B; ETA: August 2010

The toughest player for me to guestimate, in large part because his arrival time is at least partly tied to the health (or lack thereof) of Eric Chavez. If Chavez collapses early in 2010 then Wallace will (most likely) get first crack at playing 3B. But if a miracle occurs and we actually see Chavez play again, then Cardenas (the most logical long term successor in the A’s system, even if the A’s themselves seem to be fighting that reality with every freakin’ breath) probably doesn’t see the Show until September, 2010. However, when betting on Eric’s health the smart money is always on the DL, so I’m bumping up Cardenas’ arrival date to August of next year. The only thing that worries me about Cardenas is the lack of power he’s shown thus far, but he’s young and has shown a knack for hitting so the power could still come.

Corey Brown: OF, ETA: September 2010

Call it woman’s intuition or maybe my furry blue coat has fried my brain, but I can see Mr. Brown seeing the bright lights of Oakland a year from today. It could happen even sooner if he has a wildly successful Arizona Fall League stint, segueing into a brilliant AAA debut but his strike out issues and missing half of the 2009 season begs for caution.

Corey Brown has the bat and the defensive chops to handle CF in the Show and who knows how long Rajai Davis can keep this going, but Brown has got to stay healthy and take advantage of his opportunities when they appear.

Others of note: Josh Donaldson does not have the skills to be a starting big league Catcher. His arm is strong but tends to be a bit scatter shot and he allows too many Passed Balls. He does show some solid hitting skills and might have enough versatility to play on the infield corners, making him a valuable bench asset down the line. The A’s seem to be fast tracking Jemile Weeks but he won’t see Oakland until the A’s are unicorn free. Weeks will most likely start next season in AA but I expect the A’s to look for reason to promote him by June. Sean Doolittle is still recovering from his knee injury and the A’s want to see him play Winter Ball. But Wallace’s arrival and Carter’s development pretty much make it RF or bust for Doolittle and he missed a golden opportunity to get his foot in the door this season.

That’s it. And thank you for your support.

(I need a catchier closing line.)

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:47:09 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

Minor League Update... Finally!

grover — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 08:04:31 -0000

Sorry it’s been so long, but Life sometimes has a way of prioritizing things in a way other than what we wish. In fact, if things hadn’t gone to Hell at work this weekend I wouldn’t be posting this piece at all! (I’ll let you come up with what that means… your ideas will probably be more exciting than the reality.) There are some guys in the lower minors that have caught my eye lately and I thought I’d share my notes. So grab your preferred hangover cure ('cause last night's game was a dandy) and enjoy some smooth, soothing scouting reports.

OK, that was beyond cheesy... possibly approaching Velveeta. I apologize.

A couple distasteful housekeeping items to being with… KCC 3B/2B Jason Christian separated his left shoulder and is on the DL. It also looks like the A’s are going to have trouble signing their projected over-slot draftees prior to mid-August. Word is Bud Selig wants to cut the slot signing bonuses by 10% from 2008 and it appears that MLB is going to hold off on approving any contract between the teams and their draftees until the deadline. So even if the A’s had deals agreed to in principle with Grant Green, Max Stassi, Sam Dyson, Josh Leyland and Ian Krol they wouldn’t be able to get the paperwork processed and get them into the minor league system. When I write on the Front Page I’m supposed to maintain some level of decorum, so I need someone reading this to express our joint displeasure towards Mr. Selig.

Please, be creative.

On to healthy players being relatively productive!

Connor Crumbliss was the A’s 28th round draft pick back in June and he currently plays for Vancouver as their… well… lead-off hitter. He’s seen time in the infield and the outfield, this after spending most of the past year as Emporia State’s CF. He’s hitting 288/466/400 in 85 at bats. He also has 30 walks to go with 13 strike-outs and has some speed, stealing 8 of 9 for Canadians and 30 for 32 in school. Is he strong enough to keep a good fastball from knocking the bat out of his hand? Guess we’ll see.

Paul Smyth is another 2009 draftee (35th round) that’s having a statistically impressive debut in Vancouver. In 10 games he hasn’t allowed a run over 16 IP, giving up 4 hits and 2 walks and striking out 21.

The Canadian most folks have their eyes on is Rashun Dixon, the walking tool shed the A’s went over-slot to sign in 2008. He probably wishes you wouldn’t watch him so closely, as he struggling with a 180/284/290 line. He still has some contact issues (40 K in 100 AB) but the bigger problem is he can’t get a hit on the road. He’s not hitting to the tune of 125/246/196 on away games.

The most impressive performance of late in Kane County comes from SP Anthony Capra. It seems he had some conditioning issues early on, but he’s in shape now and over his last 6 GS has thrown 37.2 IP while allowing 18 hits, 7 walks and 8 ER for an ERA of 1.94. He’s also struck out 40.

Stockton’s Tyson Ross has also been a daisy over his last 5 starts, going 31 IP and giving up 19 hits, 12 walks, 8 ER (for an ERA of 2.32) while striking out a batter an inning.

Of course, the best pitching prospect in the lower minors continues to be Mickey Storey. Mr. Storey earned a promotion from Kane County to Stockton at the end of June (I know, only in baseball could a move to Stockton be considered a promotion) and his cumulative line stands at 23 Games, 14 Saves, 26.1 IP, 11 hits, 1 ER (0.34 ERA) 3 walks and 35 strike-outs. How does he do it? With a 90 MPH fastball that he can spot where he wants and a 73-74 MPH curveball he can throw for strikes.

On a final note, congratulations to Pedro Figueroa and Jaime Richmond for finally leaving Kane County behind and now pitch for the Stockton Ports.

Not a Minor League Update... More Like a Preview of Things to Come

grover — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:16:02 -0000

I am not here to start trade speculation… or to talk about the A’s farm system. (Bad, grover… I know. Does this mean I need to be spanked now?)

What I am here to do is assess the potential trade markets available to the A’s as they attempt to unload Matt Holliday, Orlando Cabrera, Adam Kennedy & Jason Giambi. Sure, normally I talk about A’s prospects in these weekly chats but I figure discussing the A’s prospects to acquire MORE prospects is close enough to count. Not that I intend to talk about any potential prospect packages in this write up, I feel it’s a little early to start getting into that kind of detail. Besides, I want to give other posters the opportunity to create their own fanposts about whom they’d want from whichever particular team. Designatedforassignment, for example, wrote a very solid piece discussing the New York Mets and their interest in Matt Holliday and I’d like to see him (or her?) tackle some of the teams I’ll discuss in a bit. I encourage other posters to try their hand as well. (Believe me, it’s so much easier on me if I can just comment on the work of others and not have to put in the hours of research!)

Just a friendly reminder… if you’ve got questions about another team’s prospects or you’re worried that your idea is too off-the-wall to avoid ridicule, my e-mail is listed in my bio.

So to do this right, I had to first figure out who might be a potential match for the A’s in a trade scenario. I looked at every team that (as of 6/28) was either leading their division or were within 3 games of their division leader and/or the Wild Card. That gave me 17 teams whose immediate futures are a lot brighter than the Oakland A’s. I then went through each team’s line-up and looked at the cumulative performance of their LF, 2B, SS and DH/1B types, then matched those numbers to the park adjusted numbers of the A’s players. The results were a little unexpected, as I see a HUGE potential market for Matt Holliday but extremely limited options for dealing Giambi or Kennedy. Cabrera’s actually a bit of a wild card, as performance wise his numbers are horrid but based on the scarcity of options at his position there could still be 2-3 teams interested in his services. The format I’ll use is fairly simple to follow: I’ll write the team name, the current triple-slash line for the position and in bold I’ll show the A’s player’s park adjusted numbers. A couple of the teams will have two sets of triple-slash numbers, as a team like the Cardinals are weak at both OF corner spots and I’ll let Tony LaRussa figure out how to best arrange his outfield should his Cards acquire Holliday.

I’m going to start with Matt Holliday… as I’ve sorta segued to him anyways and he’s the biggest trade chip the A’s have. He’s still considered the premier bat on the trade market even though he’s had a bit of a down season in Oakland thus far.

Seattle: 233/293/349 280/377/439 (+174 OPS)

Texas: 258/329/438 285/382/448 (+63 OPS)

Detroit: 261/323/391 288/384/452 (+122 OPS)

Toronto: 270/344/461 (244/323/372 w/o Adam Lind) 288/382/448 (+135 OPS)

NY-NL: 248/323/348 (RF) 281/358/424 (LF) 280/377/439 (+145 OPS vs. RF)

St. Louis: 258/332/395 (LF) 260/312/432 (RF) 285/382/448 (+103 OPS vs. LF)

Cincy: 240/307/403 291/387/456 (+133 OPS)

SF: 245/314/358 285/382/448 (+158 OPS)

Let’s talk about this a little bit. To start with, why did I split Adam Lind’s production from Toronto’s LF figures? Simply put, Lind spends about 2/3 of his time as the DH in the Blue Jays’ line up and the alternative DH’s put up worse numbers then the alternative LFers. The Blue Jays play in the toughest division in baseball and Lind isn’t a good defensive outfielder, it makes some sense that if they were going to add a bat they’d want someone who’d allow them to keep Lind at DH… thus Holliday. Texas might not belong on this list as they have the least to gain (in terms of OPS) and they expect Josh Hamilton back in the next couple weeks. They’re also hurting at 1B and DH.

This leads me right to Jason Giambi! (Gee, it’s almost like I planned that.) I’ll be honest, Giambi becomes much more marketable if he’d get hot over the next couple of weeks and the best chance of that happening is if the A’s make him the DH through the end of July.

Detroit: 257/327/394 (DH) 213/353/395 (+27 OPS)

Seattle: 242/333/403 (DH) 207/347/383 (-6 OPS)

Texas: 211/269/429 (1B) 235/299/510 (DH) 211/357/391 (+50 OPS vs. 1B)

Like I said, there’s an extremely limited market for Giambi but it would help immensely if he went on a tear right now. I doubt the A’s would get a whole lot for him straight up, and they’d have to kick in the cash to cover his $1.25 million buy-out in 2010, but it might be worth it to pick up a couple of low-level prospects with some upside.

I don’t have a clever way of getting to Adam Kennedy, then again, the A’s showed enough cleverness to pull him away from Tampa for next to nothing so maybe I don’t need a clever lead-in. Now the A’s have the chance to flip him for a prospect or two, assuming his magic pixie dust can hold out for a few more weeks!

Seattle: 260/300/420 301/367/471 (+118 OPS)

SF: 231/280/271 307/373/480 (+202 OPS)

Seattle needs a lot of help, yet they’re only 2.5 back from the Angels. Makes you wonder what might have been for the A’s with a couple more breaks. But you tend to make your own luck and I guess the A’s have only themselves to blame. Again, I doubt Kennedy would garner much in return but like I said with Giambi, even a couple of low-level prospects with upside would be a plus… especially since the A’s are essentially playing with house (Tampa) money.

Now to the curious case of Orlando Cabrera. He’s sucked thus far, and if he played any position other than SS he wouldn’t be under consideration for anything other than the waiver wire. As it is, St. Louis, Cincinnati and the Mets have all suffered injuries at the SS position and are looking for band-aids. The A’s would probably have to pick up the $250 K bonus Cabrera gets if he’s traded but it might be worth it just to save a million bucks on the tail end of the deal and to create a spot on the 40 man. Then again, maybe someone on AN can think of a prospect that could be acquired if the A’s kicked in some extra cash.

I’m not going to take the time to write about the bullpen arms the A’s could deal, save one. A lot of people seem to think that Russ Springer has no trade value. It is my esteemed opinion that a lot of people are dead wrong. Sure, his overall numbers are poor but consider what he did in April and June:

April: 11 G 10.1 IP 8 H 4 BB 14 K 1.74 ERA

June: 9 G 7.1IP 7 H 2 BB 10 K 1.23 ERA

Those are not the numbers of a guy with zero trade value.

Enjoy and discuss.

Minor League Update: Do you know where your prospects are?

grover — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:49:43 -0000

The Arizona League (AZL) kicked off its season today, meaning the A’s now have all 6 of their North American farm teams up and running, plus a team in the Dominican Summer League… I need to go on a two week fire assignment just to recover from the effort of covering so much ground! Now seems as good a time as any to get everyone up to speed on where the affiliates reside in the rankings, plus note who are making the key contributions towards the victory efforts.

(In the case of Stockton, there’s not much of a list.)

But before we get to the doom and gloom of the A’s High-A ball affiliate, let’s enjoy the success of the upper minor league teams.

Sacramento (45-25; 1st place in the Pacific-South Division PCL)

The River Cats have the best record of any of the A’s affiliates and they’ve accomplished this without a great deal of top-o’-the-line prospects. Sure, they had Mazzaro for a while but they promoted him up to Oakland and got Dana Eveland in return… and we all know what kind of downgrade that was for the River Cats!

Eric Patterson has been the offensive catalyst for Sacramento, his 274 at bats and 307 plate appearances leading the River Cats. He’s hitting 321/394/511 and has seen time at 2B, 3B, LF, CF and DH. He’s also 26 and has never been able to capitalize on his chances when on a big league roster.

Gio Gonzalez is on an impressive streak, going 3-0 over his last 5 starts while giving up 1 ER (a 0.30 ERA) 13 hits, 13 walks and striking out 38 over 30.1 IP. Does this mean that Gio has finally turned the corner and is ready to take on big league hitters? Probably not, but it’s still a nice run.

Looking at the River Cats roster, it seems as if the one constant amidst all the turnover has been the consistent and often times stellar relief pitching. Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall and Brad Kilby have done the bulk of the heavy lifting but recent contributions by Ryan Webb and Henry Rodriguez have been critical to the River Cats continued success.

On the "no news is good news" front, 1B/RF Sean Doolittle should be returning to action sometime within the next 2 weeks.

Travis Buck is raking to the tune of 15-37 with 6 doubles and a home run, plus a 7/7 BB/K rate. (That’s a 1.127 OPS for anyone interested.) As much as it pains me to say it, I don’t want to see Buck back in Oakland unless he’s going to be playing every day. We’ve tried the Buck-to-the-bench, play-him-randomly approach and it doesn’t work. Stick him in RF and tell him he’s playing every freakin’ day for at least a month.

Midland (36-32; 2nd place in the Texas-South Division TL)

The RockHounds have a few quality prospects in their line-up, but mercy me their pitching is atrocious.

Corey Brown is still hurt, although not enough to end up on the DL.

Adrian Cardenas is in the process of transitioning to 3B, the move seems to be affecting his bat in a negative way… he’s hitting 125/245/150 when he plays the hot corner. I’m sure the 3B-itis is just a phase but I am worried that his slugging has dropped from .590 in April to .395 in June.

Chris Carter continues to hit the ball really hard in route to a 296/402/496 line.

Graham Godfrey has emerged as the Ace of the staff. He’s 6-2 since April, with a sub-3.00 ERA.

Sam Demel is looking for a chance to skip to Sac’s bullpen. In the meantime his 0.61 ERA and 11 Saves make him sexy trade bait.

Stockton Ports (25-45; Worst freakin’ record in the CAL)

Jemile Weeks is the one true bright spot in the Ports line-up and just this week he proved that he belongs on the Oakland roster… not in the line-up, but on the roster. Specifically, the DL.

If I had to find something completely positive to talk about, I’d point to LHRP Lance Sewell’s 17 K’s in the last 10 innings. Another almost positive would be Tyson Ross’s last 3 starts, in which he’s managed to go at least 5 IP each time.

Kane County Cougars (41-29; 1st half division winner MID)

The Cougars have a lot of talent to talk about, both in the line-up and on the mound.

Grant Desme has a 906 OPS in June but needs to work on controlling the strike zone more.

Jason Christian is hitting 300/371/525 in June.

Jeremy Barfield and Dusty Coleman have cooled off considerably and need to make adjustments to what the Midwest League is throwing their way now,

Anthony Capra has a nice ERA and K/9, but he’s got to get the free passes under control. 14 walks in his last 21 IP is a problem.

Pedro Figueroa and Kenny Smalley also need to tighten up their command of the strike zone, although both have made some recent progress in this area.

Mickey Storey has no such problem, as his 23:1 K:BB suggests. Storey is ready for a new challenge.

Vancouver Canadians (2-1; Tied for 1st in the NW Division… seriously though, did you need to know that?)

The names you know are Nino Leyja and Rashun Dixon. Last year they played SS and CF (respectively) in the AZL, this year they’ve started the season at 2B and LF/RF. Leyja is going to share time at SS with Leonardo Gil. Dixon is probably going to spend most of his time, at least early on, at a corner OF position. The A’s are trying Tyreace House in CF, and they’re doing t for a very good reason: Mr. House is really, really fast. How fast you ask? Fast is when a left handed batter can get out of the batter’s box and down to first in under 4 seconds. That’s pretty much considered a 70+ if not an 80 on the scouting scale. House can get to 1B in less than 4 seconds… and he hits right handed. If House can run routes even slightly better than Eric Byrnes could then the A’s might be able to play only two outfielders!

OK, I exaggerate.

Slightly.

And I have absolutely no objective reason for saying this, but keep an eye on P Ricardo Penalba.

AZL A’s (1-0; Undefeated, baby!)

The babiest A’s are built by a combination of 2009 draft picks, and campers from the 2008 and 2009 Dominican Summer League teams. I’ll let you know how things shake out once they have their roster set. I’m not kidding, the pitcher who got the win last night (Rony Acevedo) wasn’t on the roster yesterday afternoon.

So there you have it. Enjoy.