It's cold outside, the hot stove is even colder, pitchers and catchers don't report for weeks...  The good news is Matt Holliday will wear the Birds on the Bat next year.  The only question is, how much?  The speculation has been all over the map - more so than I can remember for any other player in the recent past.  

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With apologies to Joe Strauss and my boss, who's waiting for stuff, I give you incontrovertible evidence that October is random.  Or perhaps just a visual of other awesome teams that have rolled over "when it counts." 

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For all those feeling confident:

 

We were 15.5 games up on September 18, 2004.

 

From the recap:

 

As for the game, Chris Carpenter felt a twinge in his biceps and called it a day after pitching just three-plus innings. He and the Cardinals thought a serious injury probably was avoided by the decision.

The 15-game winner left in the fourth inning with a strained right biceps, but four relievers helped complete a six-hitter. Carpenter is expected to miss only one start, partly because he didn't try to gut it out."It's against normal pitching, they keep going," catcher Mike Matheny said. "Fortunately, I think he stopped in time to give us a chance to let the trainers get him right. Hopefully, that'll be the case."

 

 

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Yes I was happy to see the Small Bears flame out, but the Cubs-Dodgers exposed what a travesty the current playoff format is.  The Dodgers played like absolute crap for five months, they got into the playoffs because they managed (barely) to finish north of 500, and now they have a shot at a pennant because they put together a run of three good games.  Remember when teams actually had to be great to win a pennant?

Baseball should establish a system that 1) creates exciting finishes, and 2) doesn't devalue the regular system.  The current system achieves #1 to an extent - watching the Brewers, Mets, and Dbacks slump to the finish line is more pathetic than exciting.  And it completely fails on point #2.  25% of National League teams should not make the playoffs, and teams that win 52% of their games like the Dodgers (and '06 Cardinals) should be seen for what they are: mediocrities in need of improvement.  Baseball is going to turn into the NBA if real meaning isn't added to the regular season and soon.

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The 2008 Chicago Cubs are certainly an imposing bunch, but if you want to feel a bit better about things take a look at what's just over the horizon for the small bears.

 

 

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It's nice that Washington finally got a chance, but the Cardinals need a high-quality, backup corner infielder to spell Glaus and Pujols.  Wes Helms has been DFA'd and Philly wants someone to pick up the $2.9 million left on his contract.  That's a lot for a 31-year-old Matt Stairs-type who might be over the hill, but if he reverts to 2006 or even 2005 form he could be useful.  He posted a 149 OPS+ in '06 in about 250 PAs and he's tough on lefties.  I don't want to oversell someone who was bumped aside by Pedro Feliz, but this seems like an obvious chance to upgrade the roster.

 

What does a baseball fan care about when there is zero chance his/her team will achieve any success? My quick and dirty list:

Five ribbies and seven runs for Pujols so he can keep the streaks going

A continued collapse by the New York Mets

A division crown for the Milwaukee Brewers

Batting crowns for Placido Polanco and Edgar Renteria, two all-time favorites

No pitching triple crown for Jake the Snake Peavy - one of the least likable characters in baseball

Wainwright finishing the season without any elbow owwies (why not just shelve him now?)

How about it? Am I forgetting anything obvious?

What are the possibilities?

Brendan Ryan - This would bring Miles and Eckstein, into the lineup now, and perhaps Kennedy when he returns. Hoff-power could help bolster the middle infield once September rolls around.

Scott Spiezio - Is he done for the year?

Albert Pujols - Duncan to first, Enc and Ankiel at the corners. Would LaRussa dare?

A trade - Who's out there? Shea Hillenbrand (shudder)

The calendar has flipped to August and speculation on the end-of-year awards can officially begin. This is especially welcome this year as the Cardinals are brutal on the field, stagnant in the front office, and barren of any exciting talent in the high minors. Yes, yes I love Rick Ankiel and Jarrett Hoff-power as much as the next guy, but here in Arizona they're about to see the big league debut of Justin Upton. Now that's exciting.

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One thing to keep in mind when judging Reyes is that he's only started 28 regular season games. Is this a sufficient number to start making conclusions about his likely future? To help answer that I thought I'd look at what other notable Cardinal hurlers did in there first 28 starts:

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Chris Burke for Brad Thompson

I know, not very exciting... Burke just got sent down. He's stuck behind Everett, Loretta, Biggio, and now Hunter Pence, the Astros' top prospect.

Burke has never posted an OPS+ higher than 94, but he has a little pop, he can get on base, and he can steal a base. In short, he's not a creaky old geezer.

He would make a nice platoon partner in center with Edmonds or at second with Kennedy, or he could pinch run, pinch hit, and even take over at short if necessary.

Unfortunately, he's arb eligible at the end of this year, so he's due for a raise.

The Post-Dispatch reported this morning that talks between Eckstein and the Cardinals have ceased for now.

I'm not surprised. Eck's celebrity factor is sky high right now, he'll be entering his age 33 season when the new deal starts, and he'll probably want at least three years. Scrappy players don't age that well. Has this been empirically tested? I don't know, but he has a small frame for a pro player and his arm has always been weak. The most valuable attribute he brings is a decent OBP, but as has been stated on this blog and others, because he produces few steals and XBHs, he's actually a pretty poor leadoff guy.

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It's being reported that Anthony Reyes will go to the White Sox for Buerhle and Darin Erstad...

Apparently Jocketty thinks Buerhle has worked through  his recent struggles and he likes the fire and the intangibles Erstad brings.

link

I say it's a good deal if we can sign Buerhle to an extension.

Thoughts?

The time has come to put an end to the Looper as starter gag. I mean, it was funny for a while, but we're getting dangerously close to opening day.

The Phillies have too many starters, and for some dumb reason they are going to send Lieber - their fourth   best - to the 'pen, if they can't trade him first. Reports have Lieber going to the Brewers for Kevin Mench or to the Chisox with Aaron Rowand for Mike MacDougal. Both of these trades address the Phillies' needs, bullpen help and the outfield.

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For Randy Johnson the Yankees supposedly want a major league talent, some prospects, and a willingness to pay his entire $16mm salary for 2007. Is it worth it?

Hell yes... Forget the 5.00 era, his "peripherals" were very good last year: less than a hit/inning, almost 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, 1.24 WHIP in the AL East.

Baseballthinkfactory guy has him down for 223 innings in '07 with a 3.71 era and 196 strikeouts. That's assuming he'll be in the American League too.

He has a no-trade, so he'll want an extension. 2 years/$25mm?

Rumor has it the Padres are offering a package around Scott Linebrink, but it seems to me the Yanks could better use a Lefty reliever on his way up instead of down. Linebrink has appeared in 219 games over the past 3 years, and it started to show a bit in '06.

Is Cashman smart enough to take Tyler Johnson, Jaime Garcia, and a minor prospect for the Unit? I'm assuming he flat out doesn't want Looper. I'm also assuming we couldn't give up two bullpen pieces (say TJ and Kinney) and have Wainwright stay in the rotation. A rotation of Carp-Unit-Reyes-Wainwright-Wells could  be stellar, and I wouldn't feel terrible about having Rincon/Flores/Camp Invitee to compete for the LOOGY role. Supposedly Kinney can get a lefty out as well.

Get it done Walt!

Just stumbled on this weird little nugget
over at Batgirl.

I thought Eck just sat around and watched TV when he wasn't playing... Not only is he mixing it up on pay-per-view, he apparently writes inspirational children's books as well.

Generally the coastal teams have the big budgets, but currently in the NL it's the Central division that's locking up the stars.

Looking four years out to the 2010 season, there are 14 players currently under contract with two more, Zito to the Mets and Zambrano with the Cubs, likely to sign this offseason. That means 11 of the 16 players under contract or likely to be so for 2010 are with the Stros, Cards or Cubs.

Cubs in 2010: Soriano(34 years old), Derrek Lee(34), Ramirez(32), Lilly(34), Zambrano(29)
$ for these players= 76.75mm (estimating Zambrano at $18.5mm in 2010)

Cards: Pujols(30), Rolen(35), Carp(35)
$= 42.5mm

Stros: Carlos Lee(34), Berkman(34), Oswalt(32)
$= 48mm

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So no Meche, Lilly or Schmidt. No Bonds. No Gonzo. Not even Dotel.

That's ok. I wouldn't have wanted the Cards to make any of the deals those guys ended up with, except Schmidt of course, who, as has been stated, never wanted to come here. Burnett money for Meche? $5 million for Dotel? $16 million for Bonds? No thanks.

Looking at the Crystal Ball I forsee:

Miguel Batista at 3yrs/$21mm

A young Pirate lefty in exchange for Duncan

In the words of Joe Strauss, an "expanded role" for Scott Spiezio, namely, the left field job.

This gives us a rotation of Carp, Reyes, Batista, and either Wells, Wainwright or "Ma-Duke-elanny" to round things out. In the field we return the same team except Spiezio settles in in left and Kennedy takes over at 2nd.

Relative to 2006, I see improvement in left, center, catcher, and the starting rotation, and no part of the team will be any worse, except for Pujols who will slump to .328/.415/.640

The Cards win 91 games and the Central division unless Houston brings back Clemens and Pettitte, in which case we're competing for the wild card.

Grade for Jocketty and Co. this offseason: B

Thoughts?

According to baseballmusings, Hoffman is the frontrunner to take the hardware today.

May I just say, it would be a travesty... Hoffman's era is less than a run better than Carp's and his WHIP is only .1 better. You have to be a lot better than that if you're only going to pitch 63 innings. Moreover, he blew 6 saves. Izzy led the league with 10 (I think).

It's as if no one can decide between Webb/Oswalt/Carp, so they give it to the fourth best candidate in order to avoid deciding. I think the Cy should be decided by a formula involving innings pitched, runs allowed, and baserunners allowed. Thoughts?

Bottom of the 6th, first and third, one out, Miles up against Rodney... Do you pinch hit with Speez or jrod? With the pitcher's spot up next, and Duncan already in the game, La Russa probably didn't want to use all of his left-handed bats. Also, Miles is the only guy who can back-up Eckstein, so the 6th might be a hair early to bring him out. Miles doesn't seem any more likely to K in that situation than Speez... Letting him bat was OK by me. It does however, for the second game in a row, expose the problem of putting defensive replacements in to start. Wilson batted in the 8th of Game 3 in a situation when jrod or speez would have been preferable. With a lead though, LaRussa didn't want either of those guys in the field and Taguchi was already in right having started for Enc.

Looper starts the 8th... The choices were A)AW for 2 innings; B)Flores against Pudge; C)Thompson; D)Looper. Again I'm OK with TLR's choice... I thought it was nuts for him to let Flores face Wright in the 8th of Game 7 of the NLCS. He got away with it, but that's not the matchup you want. Looper has been better than Thompson and AW is not as effective in 2 inning stints. So...

Miles swings away against Zumaya in the 8th with Yadi on 1st and no outs. Why no bunt? I don't get it... Very un-LaRussa-like decision. I think I might be missing something here, because I can't imagine why you wouldn't bunt... put it in between the defensively helpless Zumaya, the injured Casey, and the hobbled Pudge... it's probably Miles best hope to get on against the fireballer.

All in all I thought LaRussa faced a number of tough decisions and mostly made the correct calls.

I was checking out a recent diary on Albert's regular-season rankings, and it got me thinking about where he's at in terms of his post-season accomplishments. Mainly due to his age, he hasn't cracked any of baseball-reference's top ten categories, which are, not surprisingly, dominated by recent Yankees.

He's pretty close though, and if you take into account his age, he projects to be at the top of a number of categories when his career comes to an end.

He has a number of factors going for him. He reached the bigs at a young age. He plays in the era of expanded playoffs, both in terms of teams and games. He plays for a team that is consistently competitive. He performs at the same high level in October as he does during the regular season.

So to project where he'll end up when his career ends, I made the following assumptions:

He'll play 12 more years

His teams we'll make the playoffs 6 times

His teams we'll have the same middling success in future Octobers as they have had in the past

His performance will be about the same

These assumptions result in the following numbers for Albert and where that would rank today:

28 Home Runs, 1st (Bernie Williams currently leads with 22)

82 RBIs, 1st (Bernie has 80)

111 games, 4th

376 abs, 4th

77 runs, 3rd

127 hits, 3rd

19 doubles, 2nd

55 walks, 4th

271 total bases, 1st (Bernie, 223)

Obviously, the past isn't always a good predictor of the future. That said, I think he's got a good chance to surpass these projections, especially if the Cards, or whatever team he plays for in the future, can consistently get past the divisional round.

On Sept. 1 the Stros were 6 games back. I predicted the Cards would finish up 15-15, and, given this, the Stros would need to close with a 20-8 record to tie. They could acheive 20-8 by posting a 12-4 record in games started by Clemens-Oswalt-Pettitte, and an 8-4 record in those started by Wandy-Hirsh-Buchholz-etc...

Well, so far the Cards have gone 9-13, and the Stros 11-10. The Stros are 9-3 in games started by their aces, but have gone just 2-7 in games started by everyone else. In games started by Oswalt they are 5-0.

Looking ahead at their remaining games, they can probably squeeze in two more Oswalt starts if they pitch him on short rest, but Clemens and Pettitte can only go once more each, and Pettitte may not be able to go at all. Hirsh will get another start, and Matt Albers (2 career starts) is slated to start twice more.

The Stros were playing worse than the Cards prior to this disastrous series and their best case scenario appears to be 5-2 over their last 7. The Cards would then have to manage 3-5 to win it.

Bottom line: The Stros had a decent chance to catch the Cards on Sept 1, but not much of one now. The Cards will take the division with 83 pathetic wins.

Fun fact: This is the fourth year in a row Houston has swept a series from the Cardinals in September.

 

Is it heresy to suggest that the Astros have at least an even money chance to gain 6 games on the Cardinals over the final month?

Our home/road scheduling advantage has largely evaporated, and their starting pitching is right now the best in baseball.

They have Clemens/Pettitte/Oswalt for 16 of the final 28 games. They could easily win 12 of these. They have Hirsh and Wandy for the other 12. If they win 8 of these, a 15-15 finish for the Cards means a one-game playoff.

Granted, the bats would have to start doing something to win 4 of Wandy's starts, but Hirsh could very well be dominant down the stretch (or he could be terrible, he's their Reyes)...

Also, they have 3 off days in September, while we have 1...

Poll

How do they finish in the NL Central?

87%

Cards win by 3 or more

76 votes

0%

Astros win

0 votes

12%

Cards win by 1-2 games

11 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

Everyone is seemingly in agreement that the 9th inning is different from all the other innings and that a team needs a special pitcher for the 9th... The Closer...

According to Tony LaRussa: "There's no doubt in my mind that... one closer is better for your team, for your bullpen, for the psyche of your ballclub. The other side is more intimidated by a true closer than they are by a bullpen-by-committee."

To date Jason Isringhausen has pitched 291.1 innings for the Cards, and has posted a 1.13 WHIP and an ERA of 2.59. For this the Cards have paid $31.65 million, and are on the hook for another $10 million... and they've actually gotten their money's worth given the market.

So what's the best approach to the 9th inning? The high-end BJ Ryan, Izzy approach; a low-end Todd Jones-type every year or two; drafting a college kid and praying for Huston Street; the strict bullpen by committee...