SB Nation User Blog: guayzimi

Ultimate Playoff Format

guayzimi — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:25:42 -0000

Yes I was happy to see the Small Bears flame out, but the Cubs-Dodgers exposed what a travesty the current playoff format is. The Dodgers played like absolute crap for five months, they got into the playoffs because they managed (barely) to finish north of 500, and now they have a shot at a pennant because they put together a run of three good games. Remember when teams actually had to be great to win a pennant?

Baseball should establish a system that 1) creates exciting finishes, and 2) doesn't devalue the regular system. The current system achieves #1 to an extent - watching the Brewers, Mets, and Dbacks slump to the finish line is more pathetic than exciting. And it completely fails on point #2. 25% of National League teams should not make the playoffs, and teams that win 52% of their games like the Dodgers (and '06 Cardinals) should be seen for what they are: mediocrities in need of improvement. Baseball is going to turn into the NBA if real meaning isn't added to the regular season and soon.

So how to improve the situation?

* Two divisions with eight teams each: the Cubs, Cards, and Astros go with the Western division teams; the Brewers, Pirates and Reds go to the East.

* Division winners and one wild card go to the playoffs

* Team with top record (regular-season league champion) goes straight to the NLCS with home field advantage, as in the NFL.

* The other division winner plays the wild card and hosts all seven games.

The merits of this system are as follows:

There would still be hope well into September for a large number of teams as is the case now
The chance that a team with <85 wins could sneak in would be lower
First place teams would almost never coast into October because seeding would be tremendously important
An excellent 162-game campaign like the '08 Cubs had could not be upended by an unworthy team like the Dodgers.

Yes the Dodgers won fair and square, but this is baseball. Great teams lose 40% of the time.

Cubs Frightening Roster Situation

guayzimi — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 17:05:07 -0000

The 2008 Chicago Cubs are certainly an imposing bunch, but if you want to feel a bit better about things take a look at what's just over the horizon for the small bears.

2007 Payroll: $99 million

2008 Payroll: $118 million

2009 Projected Payroll: $122 million

Core Players:

	Signed Until	Ave Salary	Age	No trade?
Zambrano	2012	$18m	27	Full
Ramirez	2011	$15m	30	Partial
Soriano	2014	$18m	32	Full
Lee	2010	$13m	32	Full
Fukudome	2011	$13m	31	Full
Lilly	2010	$12m	32	Full

These guys have been great this year, but they are on the wrong side of 30 (except for Z), they are locked in at a high price, and they cannot be moved. Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano have yet to show any decline in their performance. Lee was over his head in 2005, but has plateaued as a steady 130 OPS+ guy as have Soriano and Ramirez. Lilly doesn't appear to have lost much since last year when he was very good, though a couple early starts inflated his ERA. Fukudome has performed as advertised and may yet crank up the power.

The real story is some worrying numbers from Zambrano.

Year	FIP	K/9
2004	3.41	8.2
2005	3.62	8.5
2006	4.15	8.9
2007	4.55	7.4
2008	3.69	6

That is not a good trend for a pitcher working on his sixth straight 200+ inning season. His FIP (description here for the uninitiated) looks improved this year, but it is a product of only giving up three home runs in 112 innings. His XFIP (FIP with a "normalized" home run rate, explanation) is essentially unchanged from the past two years.

2009 Free Agents:

	Age	Likely Contract
Dempster	31	4 years / $48m
Edmonds	38	1 year / $8m
Wood	31	3 years / $24m
Howry	34	?
Eyre	36	?
Lieber	38	?

These are rough estimates assuming the players in question continue at their current pace, which of course they won't. For Wood you have to look at Lidge's contract and discount for injury risk and reduced effectiveness. For Dempster, I looked at Carlos Silva specifically. There are no replacements for Dempster or Wood in the minors. Rich Hill could come back to life (unlikely) and Marmol can become the closer, but then Marmol's slot would need to be filled. If both players are signed at the above rates, the Cubs 2009 payroll would skyrocket to $142 million. In a side note, the Cubs might be wrecking Marmol in their furious effort to win now.

These guys are as good as gone. The Cubs are currently for sale, and because the Tribune Company is looking to sell Wrigley Field and the team separately, the Cubs will be facing a steep rent increase if the sale(s) proceed as expected. Expectations are for a steady or decreasing payroll.

Arb-eligible Players:

	Proj. Salary
Gaudin	$2.2m
Wuertz	$1.4m
Cotts	$1m
Johnson	$2m
Cedeno	$1m

There will be bullpen upheaval with Wood, Howry, and Eyre moving on. Johnson was already non-tendered last year, so he might be a candidate for release, but with Edmonds a free agent and Felix Pie apparently a bust, they might bring Johnson back.

Minor League System:

Geovany Soto looks like a hit, while Pie and Rich Hill look like busts. This is a real killer for the Cubs. Hill has been sent to rookie ball at the Cubs spring training facility in Mesa. In his first appearance he walked three guys and gave up a hit while only lasting a third of an inning... in the AZL league. Now he came back five days later to pitch well, but his ability to contribute in 2009 is highly questionable. Pie has a .241/.293/.400 for Triple A Iowa. He sprained his thumb and missed some time in late June. In seven games since his return he's 11 for 35 with 2 XBHs and 3 walks. In 264 major league appearances he's posted a .217/.275/.321 line, although his handling has been reminiscent of Anthony Reyes. The win-now Cubs just can't show the patience he needs. He'll be 24 years old at the start of 2009... getting a bit long in the tooth for a top prospect.

The rest of the system looks downright terrible. With the graduation of Soto and the trade of Gallagher, there are no prospects in the Baseball America's pre-season top 100. Josh Vitters, taken third overall last year, is adapting to pro ball slowly, but seems to be coming around. In any case Vitters won't be seen in Wrigley until late 2010 or 2011 at the earliest. Other notables include Donald Veal, Tyler Colvin, Jeff Samardzija, and Jose Ceda. Only Ceda can be said to be excelling. Colvin is a corner outfielder with a sub-.700 ops at double-A. Veal is also at double-A and will be 24 in September. Samardzija has a guaranteed 5 year / $10 million contract with a full no-trade claus and is currently struggling with control and hittability issues. He will make an appearance in a Cubs uniform at some point, but he'll be 24 next year and his performance hasn't come close to matching his contract.

Summary:

Call me a complete homer, but this has the makings of a team that will lose 90-100 games every year from 2010-2015. Aging stars with unmovable contracts, a pitiful minor league system, and an ownership situation will likely damage the on-the-field product, at least in the near-term, will conspire to doom this team for many years. They had better win now.

[L.B. EDIT ---- comments on this thread are closed. nice post by guayzimi, but the discussion turned childish and stupid in short order. disappointing.]

Dump Rico, Add Helms

guayzimi — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 23:14:23 -0000

It's nice that Washington finally got a chance, but the Cardinals need a high-quality, backup corner infielder to spell Glaus and Pujols. Wes Helms has been DFA'd and Philly wants someone to pick up the $2.9 million left on his contract. That's a lot for a 31-year-old Matt Stairs-type who might be over the hill, but if he reverts to 2006 or even 2005 form he could be useful. He posted a 149 OPS+ in '06 in about 250 PAs and he's tough on lefties. I don't want to oversell someone who was bumped aside by Pedro Feliz, but this seems like an obvious chance to upgrade the roster.

What to root for?

guayzimi — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 00:21:39 -0000

What does a baseball fan care about when there is zero chance his/her team will achieve any success? My quick and dirty list:

Five ribbies and seven runs for Pujols so he can keep the streaks going

A continued collapse by the New York Mets

A division crown for the Milwaukee Brewers

Batting crowns for Placido Polanco and Edgar Renteria, two all-time favorites

No pitching triple crown for Jake the Snake Peavy - one of the least likable characters in baseball

Wainwright finishing the season without any elbow owwies (why not just shelve him now?)

How about it? Am I forgetting anything obvious?

Rolen replacement thread

guayzimi — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 00:04:56 -0000

What are the possibilities?

Brendan Ryan - This would bring Miles and Eckstein, into the lineup now, and perhaps Kennedy when he returns. Hoff-power could help bolster the middle infield once September rolls around.

Scott Spiezio - Is he done for the year?

Albert Pujols - Duncan to first, Enc and Ankiel at the corners. Would LaRussa dare?

A trade - Who's out there? Shea Hillenbrand (shudder)

The Hardware Race

guayzimi — Thu, 02 Aug 2007 22:23:50 -0000

The calendar has flipped to August and speculation on the end-of-year awards can officially begin. This is especially welcome this year as the Cardinals are brutal on the field, stagnant in the front office, and barren of any exciting talent in the high minors. Yes, yes I love Rick Ankiel and Jarrett Hoff-power as much as the next guy, but here in Arizona they're about to see the big league debut of Justin Upton. Now that's exciting.

The Cy seems to be down to a four man race between Chris Young, Peavy, Zambrano, and Penny. ESPN's Cy Predictor has Izzy 7th, the top rated reliever.

Young and Peavy have a nice combination of lots of strikeouts and a low ERA, which is appealing to voters. Z and Penny have the wins, though Penny strikes out about a third of what the other guys do, and Zambrano has an ERA in the mid-3.00s.

On the injury front, Young is out with an oblique problem, and Peavy is bouncing back from a stretch where he was less sharp than usual. Penny's ERA has climbed .60 in his last five starts. Only Zambrano seems to be getting stronger. Since the Cubs look destined to win the Central, I'll say they finish:

Zambrano
Peavy
Penny
Young
Saito

As for the MVP, a review of the leading candidates reveals... an absence of leading candidates. Amazingly, our man Albert may just win in one of those years where the voters give it to the best player b/c no one else is worthy.

Chase Utley was building a case for frontrunner, but he's basically been eliminated by the broken hand.

Bonds and Cabrera are the best offensive players in the league, but their teams aren't any good. Their defense and their reputations are also liabilities.

Chipper Jones is having another standout season, but he missed 20 games and his counting stats aren't going to be very impressive.

Prince Fielder stalled out in July with just two homeruns, though he still leads the pack in that category.

Ryan Howard is a legitimate candidate and leads in the most important category, RBIs. On the other hand his batting average could be 60 points below Pujols' by the end of the season.

Most importantly, the best teams in the league - the Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, and Padres - have no position players in the running this year.

My current ranking:

Howard
Cabrera/Chipper
Peavy/Zambrano
Pujols
Prince Fielder

Pujols will have to continue with the 1100 OPS months to have any shot. If he does that he'll have the second best numbers after Cabrera, who I just don't see getting a lot of votes. His only competition at that point would be Zambrano who might finish around 21-8 and lead the Cubs to the Central title.

Notable Cardinals after 28 starts

guayzimi — Tue, 19 Jun 2007 16:55:10 -0000

One thing to keep in mind when judging Reyes is that he's only started 28 regular season games. Is this a sufficient number to start making conclusions about his likely future? To help answer that I thought I'd look at what other notable Cardinal hurlers did in there first 28 starts:

<pre>
Pitcher IP Hits/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
Reyes 147 8.8 1.5 3.4 7.3 5.45
Benes 161.2 9.5 1.3 3.9 6.5 5.40
Haren 148.1 10.3 1.1 3.5 6.3 5.28
Ankiel 151.1 7.7 1.1 5.1 10.0 4.16
Gibson 186 9.2 0.6 4.7 6.6 3.97
Magrane 180.1 8.4 0.4 3.1 5.3 3.34
Morris 179.1 8.5 0.5 2.9 6.3 2.91
</pre>

This just reinforces what we already knew: Reyes' peripherals are quite good, but he gives up too many long balls and, while not outlined here, he crumbles with men on base.

What also jumps out from this data is that all of these pitchers had very different career tracks. Gibby and Haren obviously had slow starts to their careers but picked up steam later. Benes went down with an arm injury and never came back. Morris also went down, but came back as a somewhat different pitcher. Ankiel is a unique case. Magrane was a Mark Mulder type with Mulder's career track.

Reyes' K to BB rate is the best on the board, and his hit rate is good. Obviously he needs to work on keeping his fastball down and off the middle of the plate, but as this data shows, almost all of these eventually good (or great) pitchers were unfinished products after 28 starts.

Lame trade proposal of the day

guayzimi — Sat, 12 May 2007 17:18:54 -0000

Chris Burke for Brad Thompson

I know, not very exciting... Burke just got sent down. He's stuck behind Everett, Loretta, Biggio, and now Hunter Pence, the Astros' top prospect.

Burke has never posted an OPS+ higher than 94, but he has a little pop, he can get on base, and he can steal a base. In short, he's not a creaky old geezer.

He would make a nice platoon partner in center with Edmonds or at second with Kennedy, or he could pinch run, pinch hit, and even take over at short if necessary.

Unfortunately, he's arb eligible at the end of this year, so he's due for a raise.

Say goodbye to Eck

guayzimi — Mon, 02 Apr 2007 15:44:27 -0000

The Post-Dispatch reported this morning that talks between Eckstein and the Cardinals have ceased for now.

I'm not surprised. Eck's celebrity factor is sky high right now, he'll be entering his age 33 season when the new deal starts, and he'll probably want at least three years. Scrappy players don't age that well. Has this been empirically tested? I don't know, but he has a small frame for a pro player and his arm has always been weak. The most valuable attribute he brings is a decent OBP, but as has been stated on this blog and others, because he produces few steals and XBHs, he's actually a pretty poor leadoff guy.

On the other hand, the 2007 FA shortstop classs doesn't offer much. Carlos Guillen's 4yr/$48m deal was strongly ownership-friendly (in my opinion), but I still think Eck will want 3yrs/$21m at a minimum.

The options:
A) Free agents John McDonald, Cesar Izturis, Neifi Perez, or in-house alternative Aaron Miles.
B) Picking over the roster of a loser team like the Nationals (Felipe Lopez) or Orioles (Tejada).
C) Brendan Ryan or Tyler Greene

Best case scenario: Eckstein gives us a monster discount (something like 3yrs/$15m), or Ryan has a great year and we go in that direction.
Worst case: We pay full price or more for Eck

Reyes to the Sox

guayzimi — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 16:01:24 -0000

It's being reported that Anthony Reyes will go to the White Sox for Buerhle and Darin Erstad...

Apparently Jocketty thinks Buerhle has worked through his recent struggles and he likes the fire and the intangibles Erstad brings.

link

I say it's a good deal if we can sign Buerhle to an extension.

Thoughts?