SB Nation User Blog: guru4u

Prospect Smackdown: Dexter Fowler v. Daryl Jones

guru4u — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 20:00:51 -0000

When I sat down to analyze these two players, I figured the numbers would be interesting. While these two guys seem to have similar toolsets, they are also somewhat different players in terms of what scouts seem them as in the future. If you're confused, just read on.

Background

Fowler - 6'4", 175 lbs, born 3/22/86. Selected in the 14th round of the 2004 draft and bats switch.

Jones - 5'11", 180 lbs, born 6/25/87. Selected in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft and bats

If I recall correctly, both turned down football scholarships to play baseball. I know Jones did for sure. Scouts drool over both of these guys' toolsets, as they both seem to have that "5 tool" potential. Fowler's frame though is significantly larger, and scouts unanimously believe that he will flash significantly more power once starts growing more into that frame. Meanwhile, Jones is pretty built as-is. He actually weighs more despite being 5 inches shorter. Based on frame alone, I would say Fowler has more power potential.

2007 Results

Fowler - Posted a .273/.397/.367 line at Modesto (Cal League). In 245 ABs, he had a 64:44 K:BB ratio, 2 HRs, 7 2Bs, 5 3Bs and 20 SBs. His IsoP was .094 - not very good for the Cal league. He also suffered a broken hand that caused his season to end early.

Jones - Posted a .217/.304/.296 line at Quad Cities (Midwest League). In 419 ABs, he had a 94:41 K:BB ratio, 4 HRs, 15 2Bs, 3 3Bs and 22 SBs. His IsoP was .079 - not good but not horrible for the pitching-slanted MWL.

Both guys after 2007 were looked upon as guys with all the tools to make it, but both struggled mightily.

2008 Results

Fowler - Posted a .335/.431/.515 line at Tulane (Texas League). In 421 ABs, he had a 89:65 K:BB ratio, 9 HR, 31 2Bs, 9 3Bs and 20 SBs. His IsoP was .180 - an impressive number given his age and speed.

Jones - Posted a .316/.407/.483 line split between the FSL and Texas League. He compiled 307 ABs in the FSL (a very pitcher-friendly league) and 124 ABs in the Texas League. His IsoP was .150 in the FSL and .210 in AA - good for a .167 blended rate. He had 13 HRs, 17 2Bs, 8 3Bs and 24 SBs, with a 97:55 K:BB ratio.

Both guys had outstanding years. In roughly the same number of total ABs, they had basically the same number of Ks, with Fowler having 10 more walks. Still, Jones has shown a lot of patience himself. Both have flashed very good speed, with Jones grading out slightly ahead due to the success rate on SBs (24/30 vs. 20/28 for Fowler in 2008). The power displayed in 2008 was roughly equivalent, with Jones hitting more HRs but Fowler having a ton more 2Bs. That 31 2B total supports the argument that Fowler will likely flash more power down the road, as those 2B typically starting turning into HR as the player gets stronger and learns to square the bat more with experience.

Conclusions

Fowler definitely has more power potential. He could legitimately become a 25 HR guy in the bigs. Meanwhile, Jones is more likely to top out around 15 or so. They are fairly equal in the speed category, with Jones having a small handful more SBs. If Fowler has 25/40 potential, I would feel comfortable saying Jones has 15/50 potential. Defensively, Jones is good but he has been playing LF. I am sure at least part of the reason for it is the existence of Colby Rasmus. That being said, Fowler has the definite advantage here. His D in CF has been labelled as potential gold-glove caliber.

Basically, we are saying offensively the difference between the two is what we all thought Carl Crawford could be vs. what he actually was in his first few years. The gap exists, but I do not think it is as big as a lot of "experts" have made it out to be. Assuming Fowler is a top 10 prospect, then Jones should be a top 50 guy. Jones is a full year younger than Fowler, reached the same level as Fowler, and brings a somewhat similar game to the table.

As always, if you disagree with a point that was made feel free to discuss.

Prospect Smackdown: Lars Anderson v. Logan Morrison

guru4u — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 14:13:11 -0000

I am in a very competitive, prospect-heavy fantasy baseball league, and have recently been in negotiations with an owner that has both Lars and Morrison. This particular owner holds Lars in much higher regard, and at first glance I did as well. But then I started digging deeper into the numbers, and here is what I found:

General

Lars - DOB 9/25/87, 6'4", 215 LBs, L/L

Morrison - DOB 8/25/87, 6'2", 215 LBs, L/L

Draft

Lars - 18th Round, but seen as a late first round talent when he was drafted. He was also given first round $$ when signed.

Morrison - 22nd Round of the 2005 draft as a draft and follow guy. He was thought of as a first/second round talent and given that kind of $$ when signed.

2007 Stats

Lars - .292/.393/.446 10 HR, 35 2Bs, 112:71 K:BB, 2 SBs, almost all in the Sally League

Morrison - .267/.343/.483 24 HR, 22 2Bs, 96:48 K:BB, 2 SBs, all in the Sally League

2008 Stats

Lars - .317/.417/.517 18 HR, 32 2Bs, 107:75 K:BB, 0 SBs split between the Cal and Eastern leagues (306 and 133 ABs respectively, with the results not being much different between the leagues)

Morrison - .332/.402/.494, 13 HR, 38 2Bs, 80:57 K:BB, 9 SBs all in the FSL - known to be a severe pitchers league.

Both struggle vs. lefties, which is to be expected with a lefty prospect at this age, but Morrison did hit .300 in 60 ABs against lefties in 2008 while struggling in 2007. Lars, in comparison, hit only .211 against lefties in 2008 in 38 ABs.

It seems to me like both have huge power potential (evidenced by the HR and 2B totals). Morrison really pounded the ball in 2007 when he made contact, and I am not concerned about the drop in IsoP in 2008 because Jupiter is very much a pitchers park in a pitchers league. Lars upped his HR total, but he also hit in a very hitter-friendly park (Lancaster) in 2008 for the majority of his ABs. The positive sign is that his power continued when he was promoted to AA.

Both of these guys also make very good contact, though Lars' slightly higher Ks do give me a bit of pause. I'm not sold he'll be a .300 hitter in the bigs, maybe something closer to .280. You gotta love his BB total though, and while Morrison may carry a 10-20 point edge in BA, Lars more than makes up for it with his BBs (though Morrison did improve in this category significantly in 2008).

All in all, I don't really see much of a difference in these guys. They are the same age, same build, play the same position (though there are rumors that Morrison may be moved to the OF at some point). They have the same power potential, and will likely post around the same OBP based on their stats over the last 2 years. Morrison appears slightly more athletic due to his SB totals.

Perception is that Lars is the better prospect. After this analysis, I do not agree. I would put Morrison ever so slightly ahead due to the athleticism. But it is definitely very, very close.

Fantasy Question: Cam Maybin or David Price?

guru4u — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:08:45 -0000

A little background on my team: I am absolutely loaded. It's a 15 team 5x5 mixed roto keeper dynasty league with 23 actives (14 hitters, 9 pitchers) and 17 reserves (can be anyone - majors, minors, high schoolers, japanese, etc.).

My team is in a dogfight for first place right now. As of this morning, I am actually tied for first with one other team. My team has an absolute monster offense (having 73 out of a possible 75 total points), with pretty solid pitching (63 out of 75 possible points). My competitor is the exact opposite - dominant pitching and only great offense.

The category I can make up ground extremely quick on is WHIP. There are 5 teams all bunched together with a team whip of 1.28 - 1.30, and I am on the bottom end of that bunch. George Sherrill, while helping me out a ton up to this point in saves, has also been killing my team WHIP. Now that he hit the DL, I need a replacement. A team out of the picture for this year just put the following offer out on the table:

Bobby Jenks, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Brandon Inge

for

Russ Martin, David Price, George Sherrill and Brett Wallace

I'm not the biggest Andrew Miller fan, but he refuses to give me anyone else of better value (like a Jed Lowrie or Alexei Ramirez). Martin and Jenks are pretty equal in my eyes, and I'll need Inge as a replacement for Martin in my lineup. The real question here is how much of a drop there is from David Price to Cam Maybin. Despite struggling with pitching this year to some extent, my overall team pitching for the near future is studly. My rotation for next year is likely to be something like Johan Santana, Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, John Danks, Johnny Cueto and Ervin Santana. So basically I can afford to give up Price, but at the same time I don't want to give up the next stud starter.

Any thoughts? I usually don't post fantasy questions, but this one is really eating at me.

Lars v. Weglarz v. Morrison

guru4u — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:14:31 -0000

John's post on Logan Morrison piqued my interest in him as a prospect, so I decided to start looking into his numbers against what I feel like are two very comparable prospects. The breakdown for 2008 results is as follows:

All 3 prospects are 20 years of age, with a grand total of 3 1/2 months separating the 3. All 3 have logged pretty much all of their time through mid-July in high-A ball (with Lars just recently getting the promotion to AA). Lars and Weglarz have logged their time in the very hitter-friendly Carolina League, whereby Morrison has been in the pitcher-friendly FSL. Lars has by far the most hitter-friendly home ballpark, the bandbox that is Lancaster.

From a pedigree perspective, Lars was a 22nd round pick, but thought of as a much better talent than 22nd round who dropped due to signability concerns. Morrison was a similar talent, though maybe not thought of quite as highly as Lars. Weglarz was a 3rd round pick of Cleveland. None of the 3 have much speed, with Weglarz leading the pack with 6 SB's and 4 triples.

Statistically, they are all 3 pretty darn similar from their 2008 production. Weglarz has posted a .279/.405/.457 line to date, good for a .178 IsoP. He has K'd 66 times in 315 AB's, while drawing 62 BBs. Lars posted a .317/.408/.513 line in Lancaster, good for a .196 IsoP. Lars compiled 306 ABs, 64 Ks and 46 BBs. Morrison has posted a .347/.410/.520 line, good for a .173 IsoP. He has compiled 323 ABs, with 53 Ks and 36 BBs.

Clearly, based on this year's production, there is not much difference at all. Honestly, at first glance although Lars has the higher IsoP, he grades out the weakest of the 3 given his massive home park advantage. But I think that is somewhat nullified by the fact that Boston did promote him to AA, thinking he is ready for the challenge. Morrison has not drawn the same amount of walks that Weglarz and Lars have, but still a 53:36 K:BB ratio is pretty good for a 20 yr old in high A ball. Morrison does seem to have been a little "lucky" in his BABIP, while Weglarz seems a little "unlucky".

So, my conclusion? I would give Weglarz the very slight nod right now. I love Weglarz's patience at the plate, as his K:BB is almost 1:1. I also read recently that one scout thought that Weglarz looks like he is starting to break out, as he might have been battling through some minor injuries early on in the year.

I would love to get the community's opinion though. Anyone else see this comparison differently?

Travis Snider vs. Chris Marrero

guru4u — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 21:47:20 -0000

I posted this question in another thread, but since there was a little interest, I'll create a separate diary - hopefully to spark further discussion.

It seems like most people here and at other sites (e.g. Project Prospect) seem to LOVE Travis Snider. And what is there that's not to love? He is a very solid prospect in his own right.

But what really separates Snider from Chris Marrero? Our running prospect ranking list voted Snider #9, but Marrero is not even getting a sniff at #12. This seems very much like a perception issue rather than a reality issue. Here are some selected stats from the 2007 season:

AB/K Ratio:
Marrero in low-A ball: 5.69:1
Marrero in high-A ball: 4.05:1
Marrero overall: 4.68:1

Snider overall (all in low-A ball): 3.54:1

K:BB Ratio:

Snider - 129:49
Marrero - 102:46

In addition, Marrero actually displayed more power in 2007, and advanced to a level beyond low-A (where Snider was stuck all year). Snider posted a .313/.377/.525 line for a .902 OPS and .148 IsoP in low-A ball. Marrero, in low-A ball, posted a .293/.337/.545 line, for a .882 OPS and a .208 IsoP.

The stats clearly do not show the difference between the two. Scouting? Well, both were first rounders out of HS in the same year (2006). Both played the OF exclusively in 2007. From everything I read, Marrero would have been able to play above-average D out in the OF, but the Nats management team moved him to 1B to "speed up his development". Scouts are also worrying about Snider's ability to play D in the OF.

Am I missing something here? From everything I see, they had similar talent levels coming out of HS, performed similarly in their first full year of pro ball, and Marrero actually moved up a level - ahead of Snider - and looks to be slightly ahead of Snider in the development track. Snider hit for better Avg, but Marrero displayed much more power.

Could someone please tell me why they rank Snider ahead of Marrero? Is it solely based on his performance in the AFL? I just do not see anything that really separates the two.

A. Jackson, G. Hernandez or D. Jennings?

guru4u — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 22:54:53 -0000

Which one would you rather have on your team? Choose between these 3 young second-tier OF prospects. This mainly has a fantasy tilt to it, but those that don't like fantasy baseball can feel free to post as well.

I think Jackson likely lands in a corner OF slot,whereas Gorkys and Desmond can likely stick in CF. Jackson probabaly has a little more power and a little less speed than the other 2. But all 3 seem to have high ceilings.

Which would you rather have?

Poll

Choose 1 OF

Austin Jackson

31 votes

Gorkys Hernandez

28 votes

Desmond Jennings

76 votes

135 votes | Poll has closed

Prospect Smackdown: Lars Anderson vs. Chris Marrero

guru4u — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 18:20:38 -0000

Who turns out to be the better major leaguer?

All sorts of things to analyze here. Marrero has more pop in his bat than Lars, but his home park (assuming he sticks with Wash) is very much a pitcher's park. I also wonder whether he will hit for a good average as he rises up the ranks.

Lars seems to have a bit of a cult following here. He has definitely produced great results so far in Low A ball. He's hitting for great average, and his contact rate supports the results. The power isn't quite there yet, but I think it will come eventually. I do not think he'll ever be a 40+ HR guy, but a slightly lesser version of Justin Morneau is not out of the realm of possibility.

Poll

Which player would you rather have in your organization?

Chris Marrero

37 votes

Lars Anderson

40 votes

77 votes | Poll has closed

Brandon Jones

guru4u — Mon, 21 May 2007 16:46:36 -0000

Any chance he makes it to the majors before August 1?

Granted, he hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball so far this year, but he has posted a line of .291/.354/.520 in AA Mississippi so far this year. He's always been labelled as a "toolsy" guy, and he started actually putting together the tools with production last year.

Though not anywhere near as hyped, his situation seems eerily similar to Frenchy's in 2005. He's in a Braves organization that is not afraid to push prospects to fill needs in the bigs, and LF is a gaping hole in the Braves OF right now. He's been producing at a decent clip, and the opportunity is there. The only difference I can see is that Atlanta has a good trading chip available this time in Salty who could return a really good LF (Griffey would be a good fit, assuming Cincy picks up a large chunk of his salary).

What does everyone think Jones' chances of "pulling a Frenchy" are?

Tabata or Snider?

guru4u — Tue, 08 May 2007 22:53:37 -0000

I have a chance in my keeper fantasy league with fairly deep rosters to trade from a position of depth for me for one of these two studly hitters. Who would you rather have? Remember, defense does not count - this is fantasy.

Poll

Who would you rather have?

Tabata

39 votes

Snider

61 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed