Over at MLBTR it's been reported that talks have broken down and Josh Johnson does not want to sign an extension with the Marlins.  I'm assuming that this will make him available for trade.  So the question becomes what would it take to get him?  I would expect at least 2 of our upper echelon prospects such as Ramos, Hicks, Revere,  Morales,  or Bromberg.  Then I'm thinking they would likely be interested in a starter from our current squad that has a lot of time left.  Maybe one or two of Perkins,  Swarzak, Duensing, Bonser, or Liriano? 

I guess if we're going to be at all realistic then I'm thinking the Twins could offer 2 of Ramos/Revere/Bromberg + Perkins and one of Swarzak/Bonser/Liriano/Duensing/Manship.  Is this too much?  not enough?  Is it enough to get it done but not worth the cost?  I figure if the Twins could make the trade and sign Johnson to a 3-4 year deal buying out his last two years of arbitration as well as a year or two of free agency then the trade would be worth the cost in prospects.  The Twins rotations suddenly becomes very good headlined by Baker, Johnson, and Slowey.  A backend of Blackburn and whoever is left/wins of the pitchers mentioned in the trade.  The Twins still have some depth left and some good pitchers like Guerra, McCardell, and Gutierrez at AA next year as well as Kyle Gibson likely on the fast track to the majors if need be.

Then there's the money issue how do the Twins pay for Johnson?  The money appears to be there as the Twins are apparently talking to free agents like Pavano and Washburn.  If the Twins could sign Johnson to an extension that keeps his cost affordable over the next two years before it boosts into the 8 figure range as the Twins could have up to 25 million coming off the books in 2012 in the form of Nathan (option), Cuddyer, and Kubel.  Hopefully someone like Neshek or another guy in the minors(Van Mil, Delaney, Slama, Burnett) could take over for Nathan at that point.  Tosoni should be major league ready along with some of the younger prospects like Morales, Benson, and Hicks are knocking on the door making players like Kubel and Cuddyer expendable

There's also Johnson's injury history to look at.  He has had tommy john surgery and has been healthy now for a year and a half making 14 starts in the second half of 2008 and starting 33 games in 2009.  There are guys Tommy John works for and guys it doesn't.  Johnson seems to be the latter and hopefully his arm is more injury proof than ever.  There's still worry that something flares up again but really no more than with any other pitcher after this past year. 

So is he worth it?  Is this even realistic?  Would getting Johnson mean the Twins were done with acquisitions this year and basically stick the Twins with Harris/Tolbert/Punto manning two positions in the infield?   There's a lot to give up to get Johnson but also a lot to gain.  I have to think that a lineup similar to last years which is what we have at the moment coupled with an Ace level pitcher and a bullpen that should be better over the course of the year would make the Twins a definite contender for the pennant next year and also prove to our stars that the Twins are serious about winning.  Of course a 2B/3B along with Johnson would be even better but if I was given the choice I'd take Johnson any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

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I like the Twins move to resign Cuddyer and the trade for Hardy but unless the Twins really open up the pocketbooks this restricts them for any long term signing this off season.  The combined 2011 salaries of Nathan (12.5), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (10.5), Kubel (5.25), Mauer (20, likely), Baker (5), Hardy (7?) is a big load to bear  (74.25 million).  This and the fact that Slowey, Blackburn, Span, Neshek, Bonser, Young, Harris, Casilla, Tolbert and Liriano will all be in their 1st or 2nd years of arbitration at that point means the Twins have a lot of money already committed for 2011.  I realize that some of those arbitration eligible players will likely be gone either through being non-tendered or traded but even if you lose half of those the rest could be set for big paydays (Slowey, Span, and Blackburn especially).

It's really going to be tough for the Twins to make any big commitments to other players if they hope to keep their own key players.  I can really only see the Twins going after a one year type player this year(Beltre or Crede) to fill one of the holes at either 3B or 2B.  One option would be to structure Mauer's contract in a way that 2011 is a cheaper year and make up for it over the rest of the contract.  This makes sense because the Twins will likely be done with Cuddyer, Kubel, and possibly even Nathan saving them roughly 25 million in 2012.  They will have to be the expendable players and likely someone out of the group of Tosoni, Benson, Revere, Hicks, or Morales will have to be ready to replace Kubel and Cuddyer at this point.  Backloading Mauers contract might allow the Twins to go after a guy like Felipe Lopez and pay him 5-6 million over the course of a 3-4 year contract or Pavano to a 2-3 year deal.

Another option to consider would be packaging one of our top young prospects with pitching to get a 2B who might be blocked in another system.  I'm not familiar enough with other teams farm systems to suggest any names but this is an idea that I hope the Twins are looking into.  It lets the Twins keep payroll down thus being able to resign Mauer without back loading his deal causing problems in the future or giving them a shot at maybe picking up a veteran pitcher this year and/or next.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm expecting the Twins to sign Mauer to a big extension and then the rest of the off season to be pretty quiet.  Hopefully I'm wrong and they make a move to pick up a good OBP guy to hit between Span and Mauer but I just don't see it happening.  Maybe someone like Polanco would sign for a 1 year deal, heck if Hudson and O-Cab did last year I guess it could happen this year too.  The Twins will likely depend on Punto to cover 2B and Tolbert/Harris to hold down 3B until Valencia is deemed ready to take over.  This isn't an awful scenario but it does leave the Twins lineup looking pretty bad should any of their big hitters go down for any amount of time.

There's been a lot of talk about what to upgrade on the Twins but one thing that the Twins also need to consider is making a decision on who to start between Gomez and Young.  They're both still very young (23) which is the average age at AA, however Gomez just played his 2nd full major league season and Young his 3rd.  They both still have tons of potential even though they haven't become the players we hoped they would just yet. 

It' been said many times here and elsewhere that it has not helped either of them to be sitting on the bench.  For the players sake and for the Twins sake they need to decide on one and send the other away.  It's a tough decision as whoever they ship away could come back to haunt them because both have all star ceilings (remember I said ceiling, not what I expect). 

I really don't have a ton of time to break everything down statistically so I'll leave that up to anyone who feels the initiative to do so.  I just felt like this was a debate that could/should take place in its own fanpost.  My personal opinion is to keep Gomez.  He already is a great defender and if he never develops offensively he'll at least give us great defense.  Gomez also allows the Twins to use Span at a corner which improves the defense and allows the Twins to not have to worry about at 4th/5th OF being able to play Center as Span can still slide over there as needed.  Gomez might not be the better hitter yet, but he does appear to be working on his patience as his walk rate went up 2.5% while his K rate went down 3% (Delmons both went the other direction).  He never got a consistent shot at starting this year and my hope would be that he would improve those numbers even more in the future as a result of everyday play.  So now it's your turn what do you think and why?

Positives.

1.  This win was just what the Twins needed to forget the past week.  I know it's helped me have at least a bit more confidence and move on.

2. Gomez has slowly gotten better throughout the year, is having a great July and has been getting more playing time in place of Delmon. 

3.  Although this past week was incredibly disappointing the Twins went 4-6 on a road trip that included two of the better teams in the league in Texas and Anaheim.  Two of the losses were fluky (the epic collapse and the Nathan blown TWO RUN lead).  Then again it seems like the Twins have been losing a lot of games they should be winning this season.  However, if you had told me the Twins would go 4-6 before the road trip, I would have been mildly disappointed but alright with it.  However after the near sweep of Texas and the first 6 innings on Monday I was thinking a 6 or 7 win road trip was a definite possibility.  It's the way they lost some of the games that made it depressing not the number of games lost.  Thankfully this isn't NCAA football and how the games were lost doesn't really matter.

4.  Um, Mauer and Morneau are still Twins and are awesome.

5.  We get to play the White Sox in the Metrodome and hopefully they'll suck there like they normally do. 

Negatives

1.  The starting pitching has been inconsistent to bad.  Baker was decent this road trip and Swarzak was great today.  Blackburn's ability might be catching up with him sadly, he's better than he was this week but probably not as good as he was in the first half.  Slowey's still gone and Liriano is doing his best performance of Jekyll and Hyde this year.  What makes it worse is he changes from inning to inning at times.  Baker has been better but still very up and down, at least he's been more up than down recently.

2.  Casilla isn't showing a whole lot of reason for hope with a batting line of .125 /.263/.125/.388 on the road trip.  However he was bad enough to convince Gardy to put him in the 9 hole and maybe, just maybe he was bad enough to convince Bill Smith to go after a 2B who will last beyond this year and isn't closer to 40 than 25.  Say it with me now, SANCHEZ SANCHEZ SANCHEZ SANCHEZ.

3.  Punto is still starting.  He has been better since his injury return in June with a .350 OBP.  He's been drawing a lot of walks to get his OBP up there but I don't expect that to continue at the current rate.

4.  The bullpen has been overworked this week and if they don't get a break soon I have a feeling we'll begin to see an increase in the meltdown/FAIL! stat across the board. 

Top Trade Targets

1. Freddy Sanchez

Of all the players that are reasonable to acquire he is the clear cut best name mentioned in relation to the Twins.  He'll cost a bit more but he could be the one extra piece that really vaults the offense of this team.  Imagine a lineup that looks like this for the rest of this year and next.

Span
Sanchez
Mauer
Morneau
Cuddy/Kubel
Kubel/Cuddy
Crede/Harris  . . . Buscher (depends on Crede's health)  oh, and Valencia for 2010
Harris/Punto
Gomez

If the Twins could consistently put that lineup out there they really only have the hole of Punto who would hopefully be put on a timeshare with Harris.  Many were confident of a Harris Buscher combo preseason and I think with more regular playing time Buscher would hit much better especially only facing righties.  Gomez might not be great but he's greatly improved lately and hopefully he can keep it up.  Oh, and I just read this about our friend Mr. Sanchez.

2.  Jarrod Washburn

I know we all scoffed at the possibility of him being a Twin last year but if he can put up results close to what he has so far this year he could really help this rotation out.  It would be nice to get him for a AA or AAA starter rather than a guy who has shown the ability to pitch in the Majors like Perkins but at the same time we can't overvalue Perkins.  I'd almost rather give up Perkins than a guy like Mulvey and certainly before Swarzak.  Washburn is close to being a type B free agent and if he continues to pitch like he has he should have a chance to move up to that level.

3.  Orlando Cabrera 

See Jesse's post on this guy.  I'm not super interested unless he's cheap and Wuertz is coming along with him.

There are other guys I wouldn't mind seeing but these are the ones I've seen most linked to the Twins that I could actually see them acquiring.  With the new stadium coming the Twins need to make a move.  Sanchez makes the most sense of all these players as he's more than a 6 month rental.  Who knows, if things go well he could be our next Shannon Stewart.  I'm not saying he'll be that good but he could be a guy we trade for to have for a short time and ends up being a key piece for a number of years.  A top four of Span, Sanchez, Mauer, and Morneau for the next 3-4 years could be very nice.

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