The Mets haven't won a World Series since 1986, the year after the year I was born.  Now that is quite a remarkable stretch and I am sure Met fans don't like being reminded of this fact.  Einstein once said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.  Nonetheless, by that definition I have been insane numerous times during my life, yet perhaps not as insane as the Mets organization.  More specifically, since that year, the Mets have been plagued by problems common to many under performing yet bloated franchises: high payrolls wasted on bad contracts; over-investment in overpriced free agents and under-investment in the farm system, a far more efficient and far less risky alternative.

The 2012 Mets are no exception, with a little more than half ($55 million) of the $100M expected payroll allocated to 3 players: Johan Santana ($25M), Jason Bay ($16M), David Wright ($15M).  Add Jose Reyes to the mix and that will be at least $70M out of a $115M payroll to 4 players.

Clearly the Mets must allocate their resources more efficiently.

All contracts are based on each player's 2011 salary.

#1 Trade David Wright (Third Base Position); Sign Defensive Replacement

Wright:  0.770 OPS last year, admittedly he was injured and this stat will go up in the future, especially with the walls moved in.  Still home/away splits from 2011 don't suggest the park was a major factor.  Also, according to Fangraphs, Wright was last in third baseman defensively this year when measured on the basis of UZR (range).  Anecdotally, from observation, I would agree.   

Replace with better quality defensive third baseman.  My suggestions would be: Kevin Kouzmanoff, I really like Chase Headley but the Padres won't trade him IMO.  Another possibility is Dan Murphy, but then Mets must find another option at 2B as Justin Turner just won't cut it (more below).  Kouz put up a .713 OPS since being traded to the Rockies and hit .255. Home/road splits OK. Not great offense last year but he's 30, has a career .720 OPS and 0.255 average and might have a bounce back year. Either way, he's just keeping 3B warm for Satin or Lutz.  And it's just a 1 year deal, so if it doesn't work out, can just sign someone else next year.

Of course, Kouzmanoff or whoever the signing is would have to share time or give ground to Satin and/or Lutz by the middle of the season, but he's a stopgap solution.  If you like UZR Fangraphs has Kouz near the top.

In a trade for Wright I would look for prospects, especially pitching, but either way:

$15M saved

#2 Let Reyes Walk; Get Compensatory Draft Pick

Reyes, like Wright, is a very good player.  Reyes is even more valuable than Wright because Reyes puts up his numbers as a shortstop.  Obviously, he would be impossible to replace.

However, the risks of a long-term, high priced contract of the type Reyes is seeking is extremely risky, especially for the position of shortstop, where range and health are extremely important.  Reyes is probably looking for a 7/$140 type contract (or more).  The most I would do is 5/$75.

So hasta la vista Jose!

Replace with Ruben Tejada, or Justin Turner, or Jordanny Valdespin, or Reese Havens, or Wilmer Flores...you get the idea.  Again, none of them can replace Jose, but then again, none of them will cost 1/7 of a billion dollars either.

$11M saved (2011 salary). Total saved so far: $26M.

#3 Sign [Starting] Pitching (!)

This year's FA crop appears quite good in terms of pitching depth.  I would attempt to sign Javier Vazquez, who had a 2.15 ERA after the All-Star break last year in 96 IP's.  He made $7M last year.  

If that doesn't work out, Jon Garland to a bargain deal (<$1.5M).

If that doesn't work out either, sign one of any of the following, assuming you can do so for <$5M: Erik Bedard, Paul Maholm, Brandon Webb, etc.  Then I would sign maybe a couple of pitchers of the "bargain-bin/clearance" variety for <$1.5M, such as: Bartolo Colon, Rich Harden, Kyle Davies.  I didn't list all these guys in the 30 man because they wouldn't fit, but they can be signed to like a 40 man or minor league deals, etc. which teams do quite often.

 

#4 Sign Relief Pitching, Including a Closer

I have always liked Brad Penny and would like to put him in the bullpen to be a 7th or 8th inning guy.  He made $3M last year.  I would like to sign him for $2M.

I would then sign a closer.  It doesn't have to be anyone super terrific as those will be very expensive. But Dotel or Farnsworth, someone like that for $1-$3M.  So that's another let's say $2M.

 

#5: Add Some Catching Depth

This is the least important steps of the above.  The best option here would probably be Jose Molina, who made $1M last year.  He hit .281/342/415 in about 180 ABs although this is above his career line by about .120 OPS.

 

#6 Improve the Defense:

This is somewhat related to trading Wright (Kouzmanoff), but in other areas.  First of all, I would sign Rick Ankiel to play outfield because I really like his defense, especially his arm.  He hasn't been much of a hitter that last few years, but over the last 3 years he has a .714 OPS against righties, while he has a meager 0.544 OPS against lefties.  So I would use him as a lefty platoon/defensive backup in outfield.  He can play all 3 outfield positions.

 

So here's the 30 man roster (salaries based on 2011 salaries):

SP Johan Santana $22

SP RA Dickey $5

SP Mike Pelfrey $4

SP Javier Vazquez $7

SP Jon Niese $.5

SP Erik Bedard $1

***

C Josh Thole $.5

1B Ike Davis .5

2B Dan Murphy .5

3B Kouzmanoff 4.75M (would not sign for more than 2M, but listing his 2011 salary)

SS Ruben Tejada 0.5

LF Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0.5M (get him in there as soon as possible to take over for Bay)

CF Pagan 3.5

RF Duda 0.5

***

Bench Jose Molina 1

Bench Rick Ankiel 1.5

Bench Mike Baxter 0.5

Bench Jason bay 18 (untradeable)

Bench Satin/Lutz 0.5

***

RP Octavio Dotel 2.75 (or Farnsworth if no option, etc.)

RP Brad Penny 3 (would not sign for more than 1.5M)

RP Parnell 0.5

RP Acosta 0.5

RP Buchholtz/Byrdak 0.6 (2 guys but assuming 1 gets injured)

RP Beato 0.5

RP Gee 0.5 (last but not least)

Total Payroll:  $80M

If you want to expand to 40 man I would just sign more pitching as I discuss above.

I would still keep around Turner and guys like that in case of injuries but they just don't fit on the 30 man, or they could take the place of guys like Ankiel and Baxter if need be.

Hope my math is OK.

Last feel free to comment but don't get carried away and please keep the posts civil, thanks.