SB Nation User Blog: hans

Where Does Production Come From

hans — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:27:25 -0000

Where Does Production Come From

This is an article from The Hardball Times. The author states his methodology as such: "Using Wins Above Replacement and corresponding dollar values from FanGraphs, I found the dollar value for every player who was worth 1.0 WAR or more in 2009. This introduces a bias by excluding many free agents who didn't earn their keep, but it has two benefits: It keeps us focused on players who really contributed, and it reduces the size of the project to something more manageable."

There's a table halfway down the article that breaks down where each team got its production from and is simply another (graphical this time) demonstration of where the Indians front office has excelled and failed at.

Reflecting on the Cliff Lee Trade

hans — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 02:52:00 -0000

Reflecting on the Cliff Lee Trade

Marc Hulet over at fangraphs takes a look at the trade with a bit more perspective as the season has progressed.

O/T "Sugar" (2008)

hans — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:58:09 -0000

Seems the fan posting has been a bit slow of late, trudging to the end of a deflating Cleveland Indians season like this one will do that though. So I hope you don't mind a post that is not directly related to the Cleveland Indians. I just finished viewing the baseball movie "Sugar" which was released in 2008, but only recently appeared available on my netflix account although I had queued it months ago before its release on dvd. Why I'm bothering to recommend this film isn't because I necessarily think its a great movie (it is a good one and kept me wrapped into the storyline), but rather because of the specific baseball setting that is presented within the film. The story is of a teenage Dominican Republic pitcher, Miguel "Sugar" Santos, who possess a solid fastball and developing "knuckle-curve", pitching in a Kansas City affiliated baseball academy in the Dominican. The film follows Santos as he signs a deal to come stateside and pitch in one of the low minor leagues. He faces difficulties both on and off the field, particularly the language barrier and the reality that only a minute group of players are able to advance through the levels and make it to the bigs.

I figured I'd write up a little post about this film because I believe the typical LGT reader would really appreciate the setting and mode of the story. It touches on the experience of the majority of young players within the minor leagues and academies outside of the the U.S. rather than those already in the majors, which is not often presented in films involving baseball. Give this film a shot if you'd like to partake in October baseball, but don't want to numb your brain out to whatever "incredible" storyline the media creates for the Yankees v. Red Sox World Series.

Prospect Review: Michael Brantley

hans — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 00:53:52 -0000

Prospect Review: Michael Brantley

John Sickels reviews Brantley's rise through the minors and how Sickels graded him at each level.

Ricky Vaughn makes "New Arms of the Week"

hans — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 17:18:02 -0000

Ricky Vaughn makes "New Arms of the Week"

Beyond the Boxscore has pitch f/x on Ricky's performance against the Yanks, and that bum Heywood....

There is Hope on the Horizon in Cleveland

hans — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 22:27:41 -0000

There is Hope on the Horizon in Cleveland

Once again perpetuating the belief that Matt Laporta can't play the outfield and the Indians would be dumb to play him there.....

Also Jordon Brown fans sing praise! The no-pop first baseman should apparently be freed from his cage! Release the beast!

And check out the big brain on Hagadone, ETA 2011.....from this organization!

Confessions of a rebuilding team’s fan

hans — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 23:03:24 -0000

Confessions of a rebuilding team’s fan

This article from THT was done by a Padres' fan in response to the Jake Peavy trade to the Chicago White Sox, but I think it has relevence to the Indians (and well he mentions the A's and Indians' fans directly a couple times). I think its worth considering how "typical" fans (and hell, us too) have reacted to the Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez trades in the context described in this article.

Windhorst: Channing Frye to sign with Phoenix

hans — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 20:34:26 -0000

Windhorst: Channing Frye to sign with Phoenix

I for one am happy we didn't get Channing Frye (assuming we spend that money on another player). Kevin Pelton did a list of the remaining restricted and unrestricted free agent power forwards available this year here and lets just say we'd be better off with bringing Joe Smith back instead of Frye.

Offseason Moves Favor Cavs Thus Far (Updated through 7/14/09; Magic looking better)

hans — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 06:25:35 -0000

So the Cavs missed out on Ron Artest, Trevor Ariza, and Charlie Villanueva. Well, so buttons. Let's take a look at what the team's (Boston and Orlando) the Cavs should be competing with for the East have done. There are many variables to be considered in evaluating how these off-season moves are going to affect the teams involved (playing time given to new players, playing time taken away from established players, adaptability to offense and defensive schemes, etc.), I'm not going to claim this to be an exhaustive cumulative end all be all of evaluation. The measure I'm going to use is Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). I'm going to include the players Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and Offensive and Defensive Ratings from basketball-reference.com, which estimates how many points scored and allowed would a team made up of five starting versions of x player would score in 100 possessions, to add more depth, but it's the WARP that I'm going to fall back on in comparing what these teams really accomplished thus far.

What I want to bring to attention to is the end results, the net gain/loss for these teams thus far. The Lakers for example have made the headlines in bringing in Ron Artest, a big name in the free agent market for sure, but the cost of bringing him in was the loss of Trevor Ariza, who then signed with Artest's former team the Houston Rockets. So what will this mean if Artest now is replacing Ariza's minutes next season? Does this end up as an improvement or a loss in production and even more importantly (because it is too often lost in the media hype) how much of an improvement or loss will this be?

The Boston Celtics

Received: Rasheed Wallace

Rasheed Wallace: 3.9 WARP, 14.9 PER, 107 ORtg 103 DRtg.

If the core of the team remains and is healthy (not a given) this is, in my opinion, the top competition in the East for the Cavs. (Orlando is right there next to them though). Adding Wallace and not losing a player yet (Glen Davis may go) has the Celtics looking pretty good so far.

3.9 WARP value gained.

Orlando Magic

Recieved: Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson through trade, signed Brandon Bass through free agency.

Lost: Rafer Alson, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee through trade; lost Hedo Turkoglu and ~~Marcin Gortat~~ ~~through free agency.~~

Vince Carter: 9.0 WARP, 19.3 PER, 112 ORtg 112 DRtg.

Ryan Anderson: 1.9 WARP, 13.6 PER, 108 ORtg 109 DRtg.

Brandon Bass: 3.1 WARP, 16.4 PER 113 ORtg 108 DRtg.

Anderson is a non-factor here as far as next season goes, he's a young (20 yrs old last season) forward who is at least above replacement level, but his PER is below average and his defense isn't that good yet. Vince Carter is a very valuable player, but all of his value rests in his offense as his 112 DRtg is bad. Bass effectively replaces Gortat's production although he's a more traditional power forward rather than center.

Rafer Alston: 4.3 WARP, 13.8 PER, 105 ORtg 104 DRtg.

Tony Battie: 0.3 WARP, 11.9 PER, 106 ORtg 102 DRtg.

Courtney Lee: 0.9 WARP, 10.8 PER, 107 ORtg 104 DRtg.

Hedo Turkoglu: 5.0 WARP, 14.8 PER, 107 ORtg 104 DRtg.

~~Marcin Gortat: 3.1 WARP, 17.2 PER, 121 ORtg 97 DRtg.~~

Alston's loss is mitigated by the return of a healthy Jameer Nelson (5.8 WARP last season) to run the point. The big loss of course is Turkoglu, who's defense (which has a lot to do with his size for his position) is simply not going to be replaced by Carter, but a point earned is about as valuable as a point allowed, so I'd expect to see more offense out of this team with a full season of Nelson and Carter. This won't be the top defensive team in the league (which Orlando was in team DRtg.) again. Each of the players they lost contributed on the defensive end, Battie and Lee are both good defenders, and although Alston gives a step to Nelson on the offensive end, he is his equal defensively. ~~Gortat is simply not going to be replaced, he was a very good back up last season that will see his role expand in Dallas this year.~~ Well that was a little unexpected the Magic reportedly matched the offer sheet for Gortat, this is going to give the Magic a formidable frontcourt, but is going to cost the team lots and lots of $$$ in the short term due to the salary cap and luxary tax.

14.0 WARP - 10.5 WARP= 3.5 WARP value gained

I'd like to point out here another reason why I chose to use WARP, a replacement level player (a player that is easily available to acquire but isn't all that good) is a 0.0 rated player in WARP, so even though Orlando is losing four players and only gained two thus far, this allows us to still compare the gains/losses by simply plugging in two replacement players in the roster and not having to worry about it effecting the results. The point isn't to argue over who the Magic eventually fill those roster spots with because we simply don't know for sure and I'm not interested in opinions or guesses here. All we know is if those spots need to be filled by the beginning of the year they will be filled with replacement players at the least.

The Cleveland Cavaliers

Received: Shaquille O'Neal by trade, Anthony Parker by free agency

Lost: Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic

Shaquille O'Neal: 10.7 WARP, 22.3 PER, 117 ORtg, 109 DRtg.

Anthony Parker: 0.7 WARP, 12.1 PER, 105 ORtg, 111 DRtg.

Shaquille is a major upgrade on the offensive end over the players he was traded for. His defensive rating last season was the highest he's had in his career; this could either be a fluke season or quick regression of his defensive skills because of his age. In terms of WARP he's the most valuable player acquired thus far this offseason. I think the Cavs think higher of Parker's ability to defend in their defensive system than his numbers indicate about his defense from last season. Well he's going to be better than Pavlovic and Szczerbiak, which isn't saying much but is an improvement.

Ben Wallace: 3.4 WARP, 12.2 PER, 111 ORtg 98 DRtg.

Sasha Pavlovic: -1.4 WARP, 8.6 PER, 102 ORtg 105 DRtg.

Ben Wallace was very productive on the defensive end despite being unable to show much in the Orlando series in this regard. But he's a very limited player at this point in his career and offers almost nothing on offense. Pavlovic was just a disappointment in that he never developed his game despite having the size to really solve the Cavs' need for a tall perimeter defender. He actually performed under replacement level on the year. ~~What happens to Andy Varejao (5.5 WARP) will impact the team's end results for the offseason, but picking up a guy like Antonio Mcdyess (5.3 WARP) would mitigate that loss.~~ Keeping Varejao helps limit the team's free agent losses to minimal value lost. Joe Smith figures to be the player with most value (1.7 WARP) that may not rejoin the team, but I wouldn't rule him out just yet, depending on what they think of Hickson's return from an injury they may need to bolster the PF position.

11.4 WARP - 2.0 WARP = 9.4 WARP value gained.

So we have Cleveland with a substantial gain thus far, Boston with its recent acquisition of Rasheed Wallace improve as well, and Orlando's move for Vince Carter and signing of Brandon Bass helps them come out about as good as Boston. I'll try to update this as the offseason progresses. At this point the Cavs are looking strong to repeat with the best record in the Eastern Conference, which I want to point out should be the goal result for this team from a roster composition standpoint, a lot of things can happen between now and the playoffs next season, the best accomplishment for the regular season is to secure home court advantage through the playoffs.

Where's Jhonny's Power?

hans — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 19:12:37 -0000

Where's Jhonny's Power?

David Golebiewski takes a look at Jhonny's new found love for groundballs and infield pops.