SB Nation User Blog: hans

BP top 100 update part 1....

hans — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 16:59:00 -0000

BP top 100 update part 1....

Its pay material so the link won't give you much. But Miller drops a bit but remains in the top 60, while Hodges is bumped up a bit just within the top 80, and noted as a good bet by scouts to hit .300 in the bigs.

Martinez to miss 6-8 weeks.

hans — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 15:47:37 -0000

Martinez to miss 6-8 weeks.

So if anything Shoppach will get a nice chance to show what he can do with regular playing time. And hopefully it includes more running around the bases with a Babe Ruth homerun trot with a that goofy smile on his face.

Reining in Expectations for Marte

hans — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 22:41:29 -0000

I think the majority here would support the idea that Andy Marte should be receiving more plate appearances than he has thus far and some would argue should be given the third base job outright (with Blake moving around in a super utility role since all of the planets have aligned and Bizarro Blake is knocking in RISP likes its going out of style). Some have dissented and stated that Marte doesn't deserve the shot because of not showing anything that would be considered "forcing his way into the lineup" this year or in his time in the Indians organization in general. I don't want to get into this argument again as I think it was covered well in this article Jay wrote back on May 14th of this year. What I want to talk about is what we should expect from Marte assuming he will be given more plate appearances going forward (although this isn't necessarily going to happen with Wedge in charge and the offense struggling as it has).

As with any rookie or young player in general, the lack of an extensive history at the major league level lends itself to greater variability in projecting what kind of production you are likely to receive in those early years at the major league level. It is quite possible that Marte will be much worse offensively at third base than Casey Blake this year. But, I'm coming to believe that the Indians need to trust their talent evaluation. If he was good enough to trade for, than he should still be good enough as he ages into his prototypical prime years of production (Marte is only 24 right now). This belief is directed toward the high end talents that the team acquires, such as the players received in the Colon trade, Marte, and even a guy like Barfield to a degree. Many things can stop a prospect from becoming a regular in the bigs, but most of them can be observed (i.e. a major injury, development of bad hitting habits, exacerbation of an already bad habit as a player moves through levels, off the field problems, etc.) But simply losing the talent the player has already displayed is not likely one of them. The Indians need to trust their judgment unless there is an identifiable problem (and I don't want here all you armchair scouts and your claims that Marte has developed a "hole" in his swing in the past year or two, thanks for your subjective assessment, but I'll pass).

So this brings me to what was expected of Marte this year by some of the better projections systems used in projecting future performance. I'm starting off with PECOTA's projections:

A weighted mean projection of 460 plate appearances:

.737 OPS and an EqA of .257

Not exactly "eye poppin", and he's going to have to start getting some more playing time to hit that plate appearance mark, but you get the idea. He'd be somewhere around avg. to below avg. for AL 3B. Now check out the next two lines:

75th percentile = .782 OPS and a .276 EqA

25th percentile = .647 OPS and a .231 EqA

That bottom number is pretty pathetic, while that top number is just as likely yet gives us an above avg. third baseman in the AL.

You know who currently has an actual OPS similar to Marte's mean projected OPS? Yeah that's right Casey Blake at .722 prior to today's game. What I'm getting at here is its likely that if Marte is given the at-bats that most of us would like (including me) that for this season his production is likely to be somewhere near what we are going to get out of Casey Blake. Much like Gutierez, there is a high risk/high reward in playing Marte this season, and increased playing time could allow Marte to hit near his 75th percentile projection or more likely his mean projection, Neither of which is near the "future all-star" level that was mentioned when we traded for Marte, but not terrible either, and certainly not going to be the reason this team's offense tanks this year (Mr. Hafner and Mr. Martinez, that's your cross to bear).

To bolster my point that although most of us agree Marte should be playing more, we'll need to temper our expectations for his performance, are the OPS projections for the other major projection systems:

Marcels predicts 248 plate appearences and a .710 OPS

Bill James predicted 154 at-bats* and a .755 OPS

CHONE predicted 508 PAs and a .725 OPS

Miner predicted 469 PAs and a .725 OPS

ZiPS predicted 497 at-bats* and a .702 OPS

*plate-appearances not projected

Marte needs to be playing, but he also needs to be hitting in the bottom third of the lineup and not be counted on as a major offensive performer. (I'll argue my socks off that he's a better defensive third baseman than Casey Blake though and this alone should be the reason Marte needs to play more).

Victor/Victoria

hans — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 00:26:41 -0000

Over at some yahoo fantasy baseball article , Brad Evans surmises that Victor Martinez has stopped swinging for the fences and has simply settled on being a singles hitter. He backs it up with some convincing evidence, and what all of us have seen with our own eyes as well. Victor's LD% is sitting at 25.3% for the season, which is roughly 5% higher than his avg. for the last three seasons, and substantially above league avg. Its nice and all that Vic has learned how to put good wood on the ball as often, as line drives result in base hits more often than any other type of batted ball, but this has come with a cost in power.

via www.fangraphs.com

Looking at his GB/FB/LD numbers over his career, the one season that stands out is his '05 season. He was hitting GBs about as often as this year, and wasn't hitting FBs much more than this year (roughly 4% more) yet he managed to hit 20 HRs and slg .475. If Vic can turn things around and start using his power stroke of old, we could see a turnaround still, but he's going to have to do more than just starting hitting the fly balls farther...

Beyond the fact that Victor hasn't hit a single home run this season (Victor has never had a drought this long ), he's also hitting doubles at a lower rate (6.7% of his BIP compared to 7.8% of BIP in '07). So yeah, it shouldn't be to anyones surprise that his slugging percentage is over .150 points lower this year than last year, and over .100 lower than his three year avg. He hasn't slugged this poorly since his 2003 season

Why is this happening? Is this a change in hitting approach, maybe something the team or Victor alone worked on this offseason and inadvertently drained his power? Did he somehow catch whatever Hafner had and participated in spreading it all around the clubhouse as an unaware carrier, like a bad case of HPV?

I found it interesting that he's seeing slightly more pitches per plate appearance this year at 3.9 P/PA, vs. 3.8 last season and 3.7 in '06, although this is not effecting his walk rate as would be expected. Victor never really walked a ton, but his walk rate from this season was 9.6% and now is an abysmal 5.5%.

via www.fangraphs.com

Victor is not being selective in his approach to hitting, and instead is swinging and fouling off pitches that are likely going to be balls rather than strikes more often than he has in the past three years (the '06 and '05 numbers resemble '07 pretty close, also a statement to Victor's consistency over the years). Unfortunately, the pitch f/x data for Victor isn't up yet, as I would have like to look a little closer at where he is "reaching" for pitches and what type of pitches he may be reaching for.

And all this brings me back to this fanshot , which links to this article , where Wedge is quoted in response to Peralta joking about having to start hitting all homeruns instead of linedrives as saying, "I want to see him be a more consistent hitter. I'll take a few more of those line-drive outs." Is it possible that they (batting coach, etc.) screwed with Victor's mechanics, over-emphasizing solid contact vs. free swinging? Or is it more likely just Victor being in a slump and trying to hard to hit that first HR of the season, getting himself into bad hitters counts, and settling for trying to make linedrive contact for singles?

Edit: I really didn't buy into the Wedge or hitting coaches messing with his mechanics thing that much as I noted in a comment response below, but its brought up below that Wedge has hinted at the hamstring injury as potentially being the culprit for Victor's loss of power. But what about the nosedive in walk rate? I"m thinking more and more that Victor is trying to carry the burden of turning this team's offense around maybe viewing himself as the leader of this sinking offensive ship (with Wedge running around re-arranging the chairs as Jay noted).

There is some hope here though, as I kind of alluded to above. His 2005 season also saw Victor struggle mightily through the first half with a .236/.312/.380 batting line before exploding in the second half for a .380/.449/.578 line.

Watching Cleveland Indians Baseball: Like giving yourself testicular torsion

hans — Sun, 18 May 2008 18:38:17 -0000

What a lineup today, heck what a lineup for the season thus far! In the past few days, we've managed to assert ourselves as the worst hitting team in the AL and the third worst hitting team in both leagues in regards to team EQA (.243). The juggernaut that is the Kansas City Royals, have finally pasted us up (.244).

Coupling our 2nd half .746 OPS (94 sOPS+) from last season with our current season's .680 OPS (86 sOPS+) We have a major problem here. As I sit here watching the irrationally (a screw this, this is rational) unacceptable unfold before my eyes (a team from Cincinnati sweeping a team from Cleveland). The statistical correction/regression that is certainly going to come (current BABIP is .273) is not going to be enough. Can this team lean on its starting pitching and swing itself into a 90 win season and squeak into the playoffs (where anything can happen right?) sure. Thats if a lot breaks our way (Chicago '08 remembers they where Chicago '07, Detroit continues to injure themselves every week, etc.). Thats fine and all, but it pisses me off to see this gigantic area of this team that needs improvement. In my oppinion we have a CF, a C, a back-up C, an avg. SS (power great, OBP not so great), an offensive hole in 2B, RF, DH, 1B, and 3B. Dellucci's recent slide (OBP has sucked) has been tempered by some hot hitting from Francisco, but is avg. at best. Expecting enough improvement throughout the season out of the players in those positions to make up the ground for our offense to be even league avg (pathetic for a contending team) is living in a fantasy. Its not going to happen.

I'll be back after the Cavs game, to write about what we can do.

And the streets of Maui are filled with rejoicing Celtic fans!

So anyways, I wanted to throw out this question to anyone knowledgeable on a single players performance impacting the rest of the lineup. What I mean is, is Hafner's collapse having a negative impact on other hitters in the lineup? and is there any research done in this area that would answer this question?

Choo starting Rehab

hans — Mon, 12 May 2008 21:41:09 -0000

Choo starting Rehab

It says that Choo's rehab assignment can last up to 20 days, so assuming the max twenty, we're looking at a June 1st decision timeline on where Choo fits in. Looking at Franklin Gutierrez's split vs. RHP so far (.615 OPS), Choo's bat can fit nicely in RF spelling Gutierrez on days against tough righties. Based on the limited use of some bullpen arms this year, I wonder if the Indians will go with an eleven man staff, and carry the extra fielder giving them more time to decide what to do with Marte and Choo.

SportsTime Ohio will debut a new show Tuesday at 6 p.m. "Indians Minor League Magazine" will take...

hans — Sun, 04 May 2008 14:54:53 -0000

SportsTime Ohio will debut a new show Tuesday at 6 p.m. "Indians Minor League Magazine" will take a look at the farm system, highlighting prospects and staff. It will be hosted by Al Pawlowski and the immortal Mark Schwab.

For those of you wanting a little more Indians minor league news.

http://castrovince.mlblogs.com/

Blake seeking $6.9 million.

hans — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 19:12:40 -0000

According to this PD article, Casey Blake 3B is seeking $6.9 million while the tribe has offered $5.4, and both sides have yet to agree on a figure. Its a one year deal, and Blake will be a free agent following this year, so the risk isn't much, but seems expensive for a guy that we can all (or most of us anyways) agree is best suited for the super-utility role. As I stated in my previous diary about our infield defense, Casey Blake at third base all year is likely going to be a hindrance on any chance that we have of improving our defense behind a rotation potentially posing three GB pitchers (Carmona, Westbrook, Laffey).

...And the "D" in Detroit

hans — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 01:36:56 -0000

Figured I'd look at the team that will likely give us a run for the division next year, to make the point that although the Indians certainly have some holes (i.e. Casey Blake, and Ryan Garko) on the infield, the Detroit Kittens aren't perfect either.

I'm not going to bother going over their 1B and 2B (C.Guillen and P.Polanco respectively), as they both are solid defenders will likely provide excellent defense on the right side of the field.

The Kitten's left side of their defense is completely new this year. SS Edgar Renteria and 3B Miguel Cabrera are taking over and replacing Brandon Inge and Carlos Guillen (who moves over to 1B).

Here's Miguel Cabrera's 2007 defensive efficiency chart for fielding groundballs, followed by Renteria's chart. As you'll see it presents quite the opportunity for hitters to "make lucky" on some groundball hits next year.

As we can see, Cabrera has a difficulty time going to his left. Coupled with that, we have Renteria who can't seem to make it over to his right well enough. Cabrera isn't getting any lighter, his range will likely continue to deteriorate (they could easily solve this problem by moving him over to first base and sliding C.Guillen over to third, but that's not happening next year). Renteria is turning 32 this year and will likely plateau defensively.

The Tigeroos got rid of groundballer Andrew Miller in the Cabrera deal, and replaced him with D.Willis. The Tigs rotation doesn't boast any pure GB% pitchers. But all of the starters settle around the mid 40s in regards to GB%, with Bonderman and Rogers near 48% last year. So I wouldn't say they have a bunch of fly ball guys either.

Lets Talk Some Defense!

hans — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 20:21:44 -0000

Stumbled onto this link over at the daily musings at THT. It links to David Pinto's 2007 Probabilistic Model of Range defensive charts. An explanation of the model can be found at the bottom of this page

A good way to kill some time on a Saturday afternoon. I decided to look at our favorite topic of discussion around here (other than asonJ ayB of course) and take a peak at how each of the projected starters (if you believe recent reports suggestion its Blake's job to lose at 3B) for our 2B,SS,3B next year based off of last years numbers.

I want to just look at fielding groundballs. Line drives, fly balls, and bunts seem too likely to be influenced by luck and positioning due to there being fewer of them hit.

Casey Blake's chart looks like this:

We can see that Blake was about on par or slightly better than expected moving to his right, but showed a marked inability to field ground balls at the level expected as successfully to his left.

Here's Jhonny Peralta's chart:

Well surprise! surprise!. Maybe Jhonny isn't that bad after all. As has been commonly accepted about Jhonny, his ability to field groundballs hit to his left is a bit lacking. But, it appears, according to this chart, that he only suffers on balls hit up the middle (over or near 2B) and actually handles balls hit directly to his left (between SS positioning and 2B bag) on par with what would be expected. And looky here! He fields groundballs to his right better than what would be expected. Good going Jhonny!.

Now lets look at Asdrubal. A point needs to be made that his ratings are only based on 45 games with the Tribe last year, at a position that he only played 5 games combined in AA and AAA at last year, and 30 games in low A back in 2005 within the Seattle organization. This isn't meant to say he couldn't handle a switch over to 2B in the future, but that I would suggest allowing time for him to adjust. That being said, here's his chart from last year:

Asdrubal will have some room for improvement in regards to balls hit at him or near him. But, his range to his right all the way over to the 2B bag and over it looks very good. I assume with time at the position we would see him improve in the area of groundballs hit at or near him.

I believe that this diary post is long enough, so I'm not going to include all of the positional rankings in regards to ratio of defensive efficiency, but Blake was ranked 37th, Peralta was 9th, and AsCab wasn't ranked due to limited playing time. You can scroll through the archives and find these full lists here

Peralta certainly isn't the best fielding SS, but he may be adequate for next year. Blake on the other hand isn't adequate for next year. If Marte can hit nearly as well as Blake, than he needs to be playing over Blake. Blake is likely best suited as a outfielder due to his arm strength. But a full season of Casey Blake at 3B may cause us more harm than coping with Peralta at SS. Blake's poor range to his left, although slightly compensated by Peralta's good range to his right, is cause for concern. I full expect AsCab to improve and provide stellar defense at 2B given time to adjust.