SB Nation User Blog: hardcore

Where have all the Euro’s gone?

hardcore — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 20:22:09 -0000

Regardless of whether they are white, tan, or black the number of quality European players taken in the first round during recent years is declining: 2003 – 8, 2004 and 2006 – 6, and last year only four went in the first round. And with Rubio certainly the only one picked in this year’s lottery, and only two others even potentially slated for late first round (Casspi, Israel & Claver, Spain), 2009 would be among the lowest in over a decade. Why?

While most eyes are on Rubio and where he might get picked in the first round, there are several reasons why so few international players, and Europeans in particular, are likely to be selected by NBA GMs this week. This is all the more ironic as US franchises have spent more on scouting, vetting, and evaluating overseas talent than ever before.

The simplest explanations would be that there is a dearth of talent at the moment, and that recent busts like the Pistons’ Darko Milicic (who was picked in front of Melo, Dwade, and Bosh) have NBA clubs reticent to pull the trigger.

via 24sec.net

On the other hand, the technological advantages of travel and communication make it much easier for NBA scouts to find talent overseas, and to vet players more closely, which one would think would increase the number of talented international players entering the NBA. But a closer examination shows that while all this sounds logical, the case more likely is that ironically there is less talent available to NBA GMs due to the INCREASED talent overall.

Both European and Chinese professional basketball leagues are near or at the highest levels of talent and fan support they’ve ever enjoyed, partially due to the acclaim their players have achieved in the US but also because foreign franchises are now investing more in their own players, facilities, and marketing of their teams. Taking a page from international football, overseas basketball franchises are locking up their top players with lucrative, long-term contracts.

Rubio’s case is instructive, though hardly unique. While he is earning only $97K per season, his contract with DKV Jovenhut has a $6.6m buyout clause. Rubio is negotiating with his own club through an arbitrator to have the buyout terms reduced, just one reason some GMs may be having second thoughts about using a high pick on him – they cannot be sure how or when that case will be resolved. NBA clubs are not able to contribute heavily to the buyout and hence are helpless to intervene. Nearly all overseas NBA-quality prospects have large buyout clauses, which is the trade-off for the long term security of the contract. Milo Teodosi, of Greece, recently signed a 5-year contract that essentially decreased his chances to make it to the NBA. In essence, the overseas agents are using the NBA as leverage to get their clients better terms while the overseas franchises are securing their homegrown talent.

And there are some international players, like Fran Vazqueuz, who are drafted by an NBA club (Magic) but choose to stay in their home country. There is talent overseas, but in many cases they are choosing financial security and comfort over the lure of the association. Interestingly enough, only one international player selected in the first round since 2002 (who had not already played in the US) made the NBA All Star team, while 14 of 171 US players drafted in the same round did so. Does this mean the overseas players are not as talented, or is that a function of the All Star process? Probably a bit of both. (By the way, you know of course who he was don’t you?)

GSW’s own track record drafting international players is as hit and miss as any, but maybe as good as any, based upon the percentage of players who stick more than a season or two in the league:

2007, Marco Belinelli, Italy

2006, Kosta Perovic, Serbia

2004, Andris Biedrins, Latvia

2003, Mickael Pietrus, France

1992, Predrag Danilovic, Partizan

1981, Yasutaka Okayama, Japan

Certainly top players will continue to come, and we’ve seen the reverse now with Americans like Brandon Jennings choosing to go to Europe to play. As the difference in financial incentives and risk continue to flatten more between the NBA and the international leagues, we may find that more marginal US players gravitate to overseas basketball leagues while relatively fewer international players migrate to the NBA in the near future.

Sources: NBA.com, Draftexpress, Sac Bee, basketballreference.com. NYT, SFGATE.com

Poll

Which level to you think most closely resembles Rubio's NBA career?

Y. Ming, All Star

21 votes

A. Biedrins, Starter

34 votes

M. Pietrus, Rotation Player

17 votes

M. Belinelli, Roster Player

10 votes

K. Perovic, NBA No Show

6 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

Thabeet dropping, and a second NYK-GSW trade?

hardcore — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 21:01:12 -0000

First - One of the players I'd hoped we might snag LAST year was Thabeet, but he opted not to enter the draft. Early on this year he was projected to be the 2nd or 3rd player picked, but he's fallen on many boards.

Draftexpress:

# 01. Clippers - Blake Griffin
# 02. Grizzlies - Ricky Rubio
# 03. Thunder - James Harden
# 04. Kings - Jrue Holiday
# 05. Wizards - Hasheem Thabeet
# 06. Timberwolves - Tyreke Evans
# 07. Warriors - Brandon Jennings
# 08. Knicks - Stephen Curry
# 09. Raptors - Jordan Hill
# 10. Bucks - Jonny Flynn
# 11. Nets - DeMar DeRozan
# 12. Bobcats - Earl Clark
# 13. Pacers - Ty Lawson
# 14. Suns - DeJuan Blair

Why does this matter?

The Washington Post reported that the Wizards are re-evaluating whether to take Hill at 5:

# 05. Wizards - Hasheem Thabeet or Jordan Hill?

If Washington snagged Hill, Thabeet could fall further. Would Minn. pass on him for Evans, or Curry?

Could Thabeet fall to #7?

Last year we had no backup C and Thabeet would have been a more perfect fit to our need for a shot-blocking big man, while now we have Turiaf. But if Thabeet were to fall to #7 would you pass on that?

Second - NYK is pretty high on Curry, Jennings, and is thinking about Hill as well. If Hill and Thabeet were gone at #7, and we were sitting there with a choice of the rest, we could swap picks with NYK and gain something small in return - say a another pick in this draft or the future and still end up with Jennings or Curry, or we could think bigger.

Would any of you consider trading our #7 to NYK?! From NY's point of view, they'd have back-to-back picks #7-8 and might be able to reshape their backcourt in one fell swoop. I think they'd have to at least consider it.

What would you want from the Knicks? Considering all their moves in the past year have been about manuevering for cap space next summer, I doubt that they'd take on one of our big contracts. But this is an example when we might be able to take advantage of another team's desire to clear capspace and pick off a quality player.

So, would you make a deal trading the #7 for their young PF David Lee? Some one else? Or is the chance to gamble on Jennings too tempting to pass on for an established player?

Poll

What is the BEST use of our #7 pick, if given the choice -

Jennings

149 votes

Curry

73 votes

Thabeet

153 votes

Knicks Trade (define in comments)

57 votes

432 votes | Poll has closed

Appreciating Nelson's drafts, and an interesting analysis of what to expect this week

hardcore — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 20:20:19 -0000

Appreciating Nelson's drafts, and an interesting analysis of what to expect this week

Why No One Knows Nuthin

hardcore — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 21:31:19 -0000

Well, almost nothing - even a week from the draft.

via the1cory.files.wordpress.com

Other than Griffin being taken #1 by the Clippers, no one can say with any degree of certainty what’s going to transpire in this year’s draft. The fact that the top of this year’s draft is more uncertain than in virtually any year in the past thirty leaves fertile ground for spurious rumor mongering not only here on GSoM but elsewhere as well. All this begs the question: Why?

The answer is not as simple as a weak 2009 draft class, it goes beyond any simplistic, knee-jerk reaction as that. There are several players in this draft class who could blow up and become stars, and several potential busts. This is true of any draft, so what makes THIS draft so uncertain?

Inclusion of HS players and International players at increasing rates has been part of recent draft history, and combined with several other factors has served to increase the risk of picking a bust. But that also does not fully explain the uncertainty of this draft.

One of the invisible factors is the impact of the looming 2010 FA class – while most of the FA will likely re-sign with their teams, several big name FA are primed to make a move and control their own destiny. Chris Bosh is one such example – forgoing any extension talks with Toronto has left the Raptors virtually helpless to trade him and expect near-equal value in return. Meanwhile teams like the Knicks may be continuing to work to reduce their caps in anticipation of 2010, which helps explain why NY might be interested in drafting Hill, despite already having a young & capable Lee at PF. Rather than extend Lee to big money which would pinch their ability to pursue LJ or Bosh, they are entertaining moving Lee and drafting Hill who’s contract will be significantly less. Multiply this by the number of teams angling to increase their cap space for next summer and the permutations are mind-boggling.

via blog.oregonlive.com

In this type of climate, while GSW will not likely be a player in obtaining a big-time FA in 2010, we can make inroads on improving our roster by picking off quality players who other clubs could be jettisoning. On the other hand, off-loading expensive players in this climate is going to be even more difficult than ever, so short of a superstar demanding a trade from another club we aren’t likely to be able to move Crawford or any of our other previous contract mistakes.

But one of the most significant factors decreasing the level of certainty regarding this draft is the status of the #2 pick, and that has a trickle down effect upon nearly every team in the lottery, indeed the whole first round. It also helps explain all the wild rumors being floated – scenarios are being explored both in the GM draft-rooms and sports columnists blogs.

Memphis simply has not decided what direction to follow with its pick. There are several players they could take at #2, but none is a consensus choice and the Grizzlies are entertaining trade options as well as sorting through who they would take at #2.

via image.examiner.com

While Rubio was an early #2 favorite, some of the bloom has faded – both on whether he will be able to wriggle free of his Euro contract, and at what costs, as well as whether he truly has the type of talent to be a lead guard in the NBA. If not Rubio, who?

via nbcsportsmedia1.msnbc.com

Another highly regarded collegian is Hasheem Thabeet, the UConn big man, but is he going to be as much of an impact player as say James Harden? In a move that sets Memphis up well to trade down, they have scheduled workouts for Thabeet, USC's Demar DeRozan and Arizona's Jordan Hill as well as University of Memphis player Tyreke Evans (who’s workout for Memphis raised several eyebrows). This kind of uncertainty helps explain the number and depth of the various tryouts, including GSW laundry list of tryouts. We can only hope that these will help us pick off an diamond in the rough from the undrafted players as well.

via media.commercialappeal.com

Remember this is the team that waited until the last moment to make the Mayo deal last year, so anything’s possible right up to the last minute. Reportedly, Sacramento, Houston, Boston, Minnesota, Washington and New York are among the teams that have made offers for the #2 pick. One report even had NJ dangling Devin Harris. Do any of them have merit? We won’t likely know until Memphis is "on the clock."

Sign & Trade for David Lee?

hardcore — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 23:04:15 -0000

Sign & Trade for David Lee?

One report cites NYK looking to move Lee to keep cap space of '10 FA rather than pay him and keep him. Same article cites Lee's game vs. GSW ...

Could this year’s version of Turiaf be …

hardcore — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 23:20:45 -0000

While it’s fun to fantasize about bringing Bosh (over 22ppg, 10rpg) to the Bay, there’s a decreasing likelihood that he’s going anywhere and if he does, that he’d bypass his chance at picking his spot as a FA – he himself announced that he’s sticking to his plan put in motion years ago:

via media.thestar.topscms.com

Chris Bosh, the Toronto Raptors all-star, suggested strongly today that he will forgo signing a contract extension this summer, setting himself up to be among a historically stacked NBA free agent class next year.

"(When) I signed a three-year (extension in 2006)... I had a goal in mind, and that was to put myself in the best position (in 2010) ... I'm thinking I just want to stick to my goal, stick to what I was doing," said Bosh.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/article/645658

This makes him all but unmovable for the Raptors - no team will trade them much for a one year rental, and if they do trade him for less value they lose the chance to match and exceed any offer he gets as a FA.

Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva is no Chris Bosh, but he could be this year’s Turiaf in that we might be able to sign away a serviceable NBA big man.

Talk out of Milw is that they may not even tender him a $4m/yr contract in order to retain the rights to match offers he might get, not because he’s not wanted but as a product of the club being dead-set against hitting the luxury tax.

CV is interested in joining LJ in Cleveland (who wouldn’t be?) but that’s unlikely unless Anderson Varejao leaves, loosening the Cav’s cap constraints. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/46853717.html

via cache.daylife.com

Villanueva was discussed several times on GSoM previously, once in a potential deal for MP:

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2008/1/11/131426/607

and trade for CV was just posted in a thread for us by tafkasam:

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2009/6/5/898366/two-possible-trades

The advantage of tafkasam’s idea is the possibility of unloading some contracts. But signing CV away from Milw without losing a player would allow us to hang on to assets to trade while increasing our flexibility to make a deal with our other PF/C assets – Andris, Turiaf, AR, and BWright. All have value in potential trades, and by adding CV we’d have depth to deal from strength.

This past season the 6’11, 232 lb, PF avg’d over 16 ppg and 6.7 rpg in 27 min pg. Villanueva’s still young (24) and would bolster our depth. In comparison, Turiaf (250lb., 26 yr) 6ppg & 5rpg in 21 mpg., although he is the kind of player who’s energy and impact on the game seem greater than his stat line would suggest.

Will adding a player like CV would block the development of AR, and/or BWright? Some of us are hoping or expecting AR to be a double-double contributor, in which case why would we add Villanueva?

First, in the case that either Wright or AR is packaged in a deal, we’d need some depth inside. Second, we have a small sample pool of whether AR is going to be able to consistently put up those kinds of performances against the big frontlines in the WC. We could regret not adding depth inside if we gamble that both our young PF pan out and they don't. And third, we can never have enough bigs - particularly in a year where it seems unlikely we will be able to draft a big.

Would you add this man to your frontline if you could do so for say, the MLE?

via assets.espn.go.com

I for one would like to hear more from those of you who are more facile with stats (plus/minus, PER, etc.) as well as those who might have been able to see him play this season a bit more than a game or two to put Villanueva in perspective for us.

Finding Hope for the Home Team

hardcore — Sun, 31 May 2009 17:17:25 -0000

The Billups for AI trade was not the only critical change to shape Denver’s run, and the NYT ran a story on the how the "Revamped Nuggets Have Room for Hope" that chronicled the roster changes that seemingly weakened the team on paper yet left them strong enough to contend for the WC. In that story, we may find some solace – even some hope for our own woebegone Warriors.

Last summer Denver traded Marcus Camby in what was widely described as a salary dump that weakened their team. But waiting in the wings were Nene and Anderson – who both just completed the best seasons in their career and would seem to have several very productive seasons in front of them. Could we dare to hope that the opportunity for both Wright and Randolph to shine similarly will transpire for GSW?

The Nuggets’ shelves were not barren – obviously Carmelo is a dynamic if over-hyped scorer, KMart is still an effective albeit not as explosive PF as he once was. Monta is our dynamic scorer, Jackson our effective though not as explosive veteran. JR Smith refined his game just a bit to be a most effective 6th man during the portions of the WCF – could not Crawford or Maggette serve that purpose for us? Our self isn’t empty, but some reorganization is in order. Moving Monta to the PG is a gamble – but any less of a gamble than sending AI out for Billups?

via nimg.sulekha.com

Will a Monta-Jackson-Maggette lineup be able to handle defensive pressure? We have depth behind them if all three can play 30-35 a night for most of the season. If JR Smith can tone down his act a bit and become a force off the bench, might not Crawford – who’s uniformly described as a good teammate and class act – similarly be able to come off the bench for firepower? KAz has more than proven his worth, and Morrow and Marco have shown flashes – either might contribute more off the bench next year.

Even without Camby, the Denver frontline battled admirably against LAL – will a frontline of AB, Turiaf, Wright, and Randolph be able to do likewise? Do we add one more capable veteran to deepen that position – yes. We still need more beef up front to hope to compete in the West.

via assets.sbnation.com

And of course AI was sent out for Billups – giving up some scoring for leadership, defense and the all too often cited but impossible to quantify – chemistry. Though hard to quantify the attitude change on the Nuggets after that trade was hard to miss and well documented both in the Colorado press and noticed nationally. Where does that change come from for our club? An new, veteran PF? A new Coach?? The latter is coming around the corner – a season away perhaps, but coming.

I’ve been a glass is half empty fan for a long time, annoyingly so to be sure, and advocated for trading Ellis or Randolph for a chance to land Bosh or another quality big. But the WC is not going to remain the juggernaut it currently is forever and maybe not for long. Last season New Orleans was at the top, only to drop precipitously; San Antonio is aging, Phoenix was not reborn despite a roster that on paper looked potent, Dallas is in flux, Portland is going through growing pains, and Utah could be severely weakened this offseason. As for LAL, Odom may return but they could lose Ariza and at some point Jackson will crawl into a Buddhist cave somewhere and align with the Zen masters who levitate into a celestial plane. Anyway, after watching the Nuggets emerge as a force to be reckoned with I began to think maybe ….

Obviously the Warriors and Nuggets benefited from their momentum and caught teams by surprise in their respective recent playoff runs. Maybe Denver comes crashing back to earth the way GSW did after it’s two years prior to this past one. But we have some pieces, the cupboard is not bare. A tweak that works to put every one into a better position (Monta to PG?), a trade (for a vet PF? PG?), some attitude adjustment (defense?) and talented young players taking advantage of the opportunity (Wright? Randolph? Morrow?) all could mean we might just have some hope. See ya around the draft.

Damn, gotta give it up ...

hardcore — Wed, 27 May 2009 04:17:53 -0000

You simply cannot watch the ECF series and not respect the performance by MP.

Guarding LaBron – is there a lonelier task in sports than having LJ one-on-one at the top of the key with the game on the line? (Maybe a linebacker trying to tackle Barry Sanders in the open field, but are most of you too young to see that comparison?)

via photos.syracuse.com

Scoring – Outscoring the entire Cleveland Bench on his own:

56 - 41

Hitting Big Shots – deep threes, drives to the hoop, inside & outside.

Not making Turnovers – Not Even stepping out of bounds once!

Does Cleveland still have a realistic chance? Could there still be the vaunted matchup of superstars everyone predicted? Or, will the NBA be hyping an Orlando-Denver Finals?! Ouch.

via www.nba.com

MP might be justified asking, "Where are the haters now?"

These games matter - it's math, not chemistry ... and the question is how to position for the draft

hardcore — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 23:23:46 -0000

Unless our karma takes a 180-degree turn from our previous lottery luck, we have virtually no chance at the top three players in this draft:

1 Blake Griffin PF/C, Oklahoma, Sophomore

via www.draftexpress.com

2 Ricky Rubio PG. DKV Joventut, International

via www.draftexpress.com

3 Jordan Hill PF, Arizona, Junior

via www.draftexpress.com

As I understand the draft lottery, only the top three picks are lottery-based, after that the picks are determined by record and set in reverse order of final record. In other words, unless we beat the odds big time and move into the top 3, we likely lose out on the next three:

4 Hasheem Thabeet C, Connecticut, Junior

via www.draftexpress.com

5 James Harden SG, Arizona State, Sophomore

via www.draftexpress.com

6 Brandon Jennings PG, Lottomatica Roma, International

via www.draftexpress.com

So, unless we make a surprise trade to move up, or trade our pick outright, here’s where the rubber meets the road for the Warriors. And why winning or losing these last few games could impact our options in picks 7 through 9. Frankly, I’m less sure than ever whether anyone really can accurately predict where these players get selected, particularly Jennings, but the next three players, according to Draft Express (which was pretty accurate in last couple years IIRC) could be:

7 Willie Warren SG, Oklahoma, Freshman

via www.draftexpress.com

8 Tyreke Evans PG/SG, Memphis, Freshman

via www.draftexpress.com

9 Demar DeRozan SG/SF, USC, Freshman

via www.draftexpress.com

If there is ANY chance that the dubs might make a big trade that included Monta, they’d possibly pick a SG. But these three are all freshmen – and we are already the youngest team in the league. Will age/experience factor into BPA equations? Both Juniors Earl Clark and Ty Lawson might be available to us – do we pass on both those players?

Earl Clark SF/PF, Louisville, Junior

via www.draftexpress.com

Could Clark fight his way into the playing rotation? From what I saw (which was limited) he’s not a low block bruiser but sure seems agile and has the ball handling skills to play Nellie ball. Nonetheless it wouldn't seem that anyone other than Griffin and Jordan would have a realistic shot to crack the rotation. Unless GSW trades one or more forwards that is.

Would Ty Lawson be the perfect backup PG (& heir apparent)? He sure showed well in the NCAAs and has a longer track record than the three frosh SG (above).

Ty Lawson PG, North Carolina, Junior

via www.draftexpress.com

Lawson is not the perfect PG either to play alongside Monta, and he has holes in his game. But he showed intangibles and seems like he'd be a solid pick even as high as #7 (my suspicion is his stock rose as the tournament progressed). The intangibles that could factor in are his competitiveness, success at a high level over several seasons, his defense, quickness.

My hunch is Lawson will be off the board by #9 - if so, that would make winning/losing the last few games this season consequential, to say the least. Many contributors here claim our #1 priority should be a PG - is Lawson your pick? Can you stomach losing an extra game or two to address your #1 priority.

We can develop chemistry in training camp, let's do the math to get us in position to at least draft the best elements to mix.

Poll

If we end up picking 7 – 9, who would you like to see the dubs select?

Willie Warren SG, Oklahoma, Freshman

6 votes

Tyreke Evans PG/SG, Memphis, Freshman

21 votes

Demar DeRozan SG/SF, USC, Freshman

10 votes

Earl Clark SF/PF, Louisville, Junior

12 votes

Ty Lawson PG, North Carolina, Junior

48 votes

None of the Above – name your pick, or trade?

15 votes

112 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation User Blog: hardcore

Where have all the Euro’s gone?

Which level to you think most closely resembles Rubio's NBA career?

Y. Ming, All Star

A. Biedrins, Starter

M. Pietrus, Rotation Player

M. Belinelli, Roster Player

K. Perovic, NBA No Show

Thabeet dropping, and a second NYK-GSW trade?

What is the BEST use of our #7 pick, if given the choice -

Jennings

Curry

Thabeet

Knicks Trade (define in comments)

Appreciating Nelson's drafts, and an interesting analysis of what to expect this week

Appreciating Nelson's drafts, and an interesting analysis of what to expect this week

Why No One Knows Nuthin

Sign & Trade for David Lee?

Sign & Trade for David Lee?

Could this year’s version of Turiaf be …

Finding Hope for the Home Team

Damn, gotta give it up ...

These games matter - it's math, not chemistry ... and the question is how to position for the draft

If we end up picking 7 – 9, who would you like to see the dubs select?

Willie Warren SG, Oklahoma, Freshman

Tyreke Evans PG/SG, Memphis, Freshman

Demar DeRozan SG/SF, USC, Freshman

Earl Clark SF/PF, Louisville, Junior

Ty Lawson PG, North Carolina, Junior

None of the Above – name your pick, or trade?

More Questions than Answers about Mullin Matters