SB Nation User Blog: hawkblogger

"It's the worst thing in the world to have to watch these guys play," Batum said, forcing a...

hawkblogger — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:32:26 -0000

"It's the worst thing in the world to have to watch these guys play," Batum said, forcing a sympathetic smile.

Ain't that the truth! Kidding!

A Little Perspective...I Hope

hawkblogger — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:55:03 -0000

Back in October, I wrote about the likelihood that the Blazers would take a step back before stepping forward. We've all clearly seen them take a step back, so the questions now are:

1) When will they take a step forward?

2) Will that step forward make them an equivalent team to last season? Worse? Better?

3) Will that step come soon enough to salvage whatever you deem "success" to be this season?

As a guy who is coming off painfully boring and bad Mariner and Seahawks seasons over the last two years, the Blazers have really been my salvation. I'm not sure anyone is more desperate for them to be good right now than I am (although, I'm certain many are equally desperate). That said, I never really considered the Blazers a championship contender this year, so it's more important to me that they exit the season on an upwards trajectory than it is that they win 60 games.

It seems highly unlikely that we'll even match the 54 win total from last season, for all the reasons being analyzed in other threads. Most people seemed to put winning a playoff series as Goal #1, and getting to the Western Conference Finals as a stretch goal. With that in mind, we only need to get into the playoffs for those hopes to remain. One somewhat understated development this season is that the Blazers don't really seem to play much different on the road or at home. If the Blazers enter the playoffs as a hot team, I'm not sure it really matters as much this year if they have home court advantage. This is all meant to say, we need to be a better team by the end of this season than we were at the end of last and we need to make the playoffs. Everything else is gravy unless you truly believed we were/are championship contenders this year.

So if those are the goals, we'll likely need ~50 wins to make the playoffs and can really "click" as a team at almost any point up until the end. Playing at our current level, we are on pace for 49 wins. That number has taken a big hit with the recent losing streak, but is still in playoff range. We are leaving the easiest part of our schedule, though, so it remains to be seen if we are actually playing worse right now or just playing better competition. The loss to a Memphis team at home that we beat on the road would seem to indicate we are certainly playing worse.

The bigger question is whether this team can ever "click" as it is currently assembled. What many fans seem to miss is that the whole team doesn't need to click. Brandon, Greg and LMA need to click. If the three of them can be effective together, everything else will fall into place. The whole Andre Miller/Steve Blake/Travis Outlaw/Rudy Fernandez/Nic Batum conversation is easy to poke at, but if all of those guys fit together perfectly without the Big Three finding their rhythm, the Blazers would still be a fatally flawed team. Even more simply put, until Roy plays like he did the last two seasons, we won't reach our potential. I'll avoid delving into the reasons he might be playing this poorly, but if you simplify the question to be, "How likely is it that Roy will be rebound to his previous level of play," one has to answer that it is highly likely. Roy is too good to wallow, sulk and be out of sorts all season. We're already starting to see signs of him taking responsibility for his failures instead of blaming others. That bodes well.

Will Roy have his game back in a week? A month? Three months? I can't really say, but I fully expect it to be back. We've already got Oden playing at a consistently high level (which rocks, btw!!). I don't believe Greg's game needs to suffer with Roy stepping forward considering his game is predicated on rebounding, defense and table scraps on offense. I'll take 13 pts, 20 rebounds and 3 blocks any day. That leaves LMA, who is famously a second half player. Looking ahead, I have a harder time picturing the Blazers struggling at this level for another few months than picturing them finding their rhythm. I think this also may be the year we see movement at the trade deadline, with an eye on sorting out the complimentary players a little more. That could be timed perfectly with The Big Three finding their way.

Add it up, and my focus as a fan now is to see how the team responds to this adversity. Who steps forward as a leader? Does the effort increase as we saw signs of on Tuesday? We need to avoid total collapse, but anyone expecting a quick fix might want to reset their expectations. The problems this team is facing will take time to untangle. The good news is that there is enough time and talent to recover, and be the better for having gone through it. One thing is certain: we will point back to this valley in 3-5 years as a major milestone in the team's development or destruction.

Greg's Averages When He Plays 25+ Minutes

hawkblogger — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:00:34 -0000

I wrote a while back about a key stat for Greg will be mean time between fouls. At the time, he was averaging a scant 4 mins 9 seconds between fouls, limiting him to a max of ~24 mins per game. Increasing the mean time between fouls by even a single minute would increase his max court time to ~30 mins. In this post, I wanted to see exactly how Greg is performing when he does manage to play more than 25 mins.

Through the first 16 games of the year, Greg has played 25+ minutes seven times, including four of the past eight. In those seven games, Greg has averaged:

12.71 pts 10.29 reb 2.43 blocks 2.57 turnovers 3.86 fouls

I think any Blazer fan would sign up for those numbers. His turnover total is inflated by the seven he committed in the first game. His turnover average in the other six games is only 1.57.

Most importantly, his average minutes per game has increased from ~23 in the first eight games, to ~26 in the last eight. His fouls have gone from an average of 4.375 in the first eight to 3.625 in the last eight.

It's fun to watch his growth happen so clearly and undeniably.

PLEA: Need video of Deng catching Rudy's pass with his face

hawkblogger — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:51:43 -0000

PLEA: Need video of Deng catching Rudy's pass with his face

I've got to have that video to share with friends. Anyone have it?

Outlaw's injury a chance to learn

hawkblogger — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:42:09 -0000

Injuries are one of the worst parts of sports. If your starting quarterback goes out in an NFL game, your team is almost guaranteed to lose. A key member of your basketball rotation goes out and everyone's role shifts, upsetting the balance teams work so hard to achieve. In these cases, and more, my reaction is almost always a physical one. I feel it in my gut. My heart sinks. I fret over something I cannot change. But when I saw Travis Outlaw limping to the locker room, and when I heard the dreaded words, "We've got news on Travis' injury, and it's not good," I felt something between nothing and a tinge of excitement. I wanted to spend a few minutes exploring why that is.

Now before all the self-righteous folks storm in here telling me I'm a horrible person for feeling anything but bad when another person is injured, especially when it could effect their livelihood, I'd ask you all to park that stuff somewhere else. I'm looking at this purely from a basketball standpoint, and it's effect on the Blazers. I don't claim to know Travis as a person. I know him as a player on my favorite team.

With that in mind, I will admit that I have never been an Outlaw enthusiast. He's a guy that often stops of the flow of an offense, takes ill-advised shots (that he admittedly makes at an alarming rate), and plays with inconsistent effort and energy, especially on defense. For all the times that we've seen Travis win us a game with his clutch shooting, you'd think I'd at least feel good about what he contributes. But no matter how many times he wins us a game (opening night this season, for example), I shudder just a little every time he checks into a game.

The things he really brings to the team (3P shooting, unguardable jump shooting, clutch scoring) are tempered by the things he takes away (offensive flow, rebounding, ball security, good shot selection).

His status as Brandon Roy's BFF also plays a role in my reaction to his going down. Whether it is true or not, I often feel like Travis is still around because of his relationship to Roy. As much as I like Roy, I don't think any player should have that much influence over assembling the right team to win a championship. If the team were to trade Outlaw, my instinct is that Roy would sulk a bit. Now, with Travis injured, we all get to see what this team looks like without him ahead of his impending free agency. Should we actually play better, it will be much harder for Roy to bash the front office if they don't resign Outlaw.

Outlaw's injury also opens the door for playing time for other players, all of which I'd like to see more of. Those folks include Rudy Fernandez, Juwan Howard, and even Dante Cunningham. It may even influence Jerryd Bayless' playing time. At first glance, Outlaw is a SF/PF, but he is also a scorer off the bench. Jerryd may be asked to fill in some of those points.

Potential plays a role in my reaction as well. Travis is what he is. He is not on his way to bigger or different things. His game has not changed much in the past three seasons. I feel strongly that we are not getting the most out of Rudy Fernandez or Jerryd Bayless yet. I don't think we've seen the best they have to offer. Dante Cunningham may give us some of Outlaw's jump shooting, but from within the offense and with better defense and rebounding. Howard will be a superior rebounder and more more reliable with the ball in his hands, while also making other people on the floor better (e.g., Oden). There are 20+ minutes that will go elsewhere now.

We might not get any of those things, but that's the point. I don't know. We may find out that this team lost a key player last night, and even that would be a good thing. It may allow us to avoid a potential mistake we'd make by letting Outlaw walk in the off-season. This injury allows us to experience LAT (Life After Travis) without committing to it.

I'm looking forward to learning what this team looks like for the next 4-8 weeks.

Player-by-player 2009 performance vs. career average

hawkblogger — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 18:51:10 -0000

We have all discussed, in exhaustive detail, the state of nearly every individual Blazer as well as various lineups and rotations. I found myself in the bliss of a five game Blazers winning streak wondering, "Is this who we are, or are we even better than this?" Then, it occurred to me, given the opposition, we may actually be worse than this. So I decided to do a little research project to see if the evidence suggested the glass is half full or half empty. I hope it sparks some discussion.

Let's start by looking at each rotation player's performance thus far as compared to both their career averages and the averages of their previous season.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tTHEKl2j0ksHxA7fu--qTMA&output=html

I color coded all areas that were worse compared to the previous season RED, all areas better GREEN, and debatable differences (e.g., taken more or less shots) YELLOW. If the differences were negligible, I left them alone.

Note that I'm old school and did not include things like PER, and the stats that make it up. If you'd like to add them to the spreadsheet, please feel free to do so using this link:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AkkE1jr_gPZKdFRIRUtsMmowa3NIeEE3ZnUtLXFUTUE&hl=en

GLASS HALF-FULL ANALYSIS

The Blazers are off to their best start in years, and are winners of five straight despite having reduced scoring from every player on their team outside of Greg Oden and Jerryd Bayless. Everyone's FG% is down except for those two, Rudy and LMA. Everyone's 3P% is down except for Rudy, Jerryd and Travis. Rebounding is down except for Greg and LMA. Players like Andre Miller are way off their career averages in many categories, including a staggering 38.9% FG% compared to a career 45.9% clip, and a full two assists below his career average. Brandon is down in almost every meaningful statistic except for free throw attempts. Basically, the argument here would be that winning at this rate and sitting in a first-place tie with so many players playing below their potential means we are due for even better quality of play down the road.

Brandon is good enough that he'll eventually figure it out. Greg will continue to improve. LMA is a notoriously slow starter, especially scoring. Andre Miller is a slow starter as well.

GLASS HALF-EMPTY ANALYSIS

It should be pretty obvious that the opposing view would be that this win streak is fool's gold built on poor opposition, and there is ample evidence of this team seems to be making each other worse, not better. The amount of down numbers far outweighs the up, and not all of that can be explained by the reduced minutes everyone besides Greg is playing. Shooting percentages are down. Assists are down. You could argue this team has yet to figure out how to make 1+1=3, so to speak from a chemistry perspective.

MY OPINION

I'm a centrist. I'll take a little from column A and a little from column B. Mostly, I think shooting returns to mean over time. Andre Miller will not continue to shoot so far below his career numbers. Neither will Travis Outlaw or Joel. When the team starts shooting well, it may be one of the most efficient and versatile offensive forces in the NBA. I'm not even talking about great shooting, just doing what folks have proven they can do throughout their careers. A couple little tidbits stood out to me that don't mean anything to the larger team:

- Jerry is shooting 100% from 3pt range

- I was shocked that Rudy's FG% is higher so far this year

- I was shocked that Outlaw's 3P% is higher so far this year

- Martell's defense and hustle really showed up with increased blocks and steals with fewer fouls

What stood out to you? Are you a half-full or half-empty person on this?h

Poll

Half-Full or Half-Empty?

Half-Full

28 votes

Half-Empty

6 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed

Memphis wants Thabeet to be like Greg

hawkblogger — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:25:03 -0000

Memphis wants Thabeet to be like Greg

When's the last time a team was wishing their young big man would grow up to be like Greg? What a turnaround.

Aldridge: Chairman of the boards?

hawkblogger — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:14:12 -0000

The much-maligned toughness of LaMarcus Aldridge always seems to come back to his below average rebounding total for the power forward position. Don't look now, but our little boy may be growing up.

Aldridge's last four games have gone like this:

ATL: 14 rebounds

SA: 5 rebounds

MIN: 12 rebounds

MEM: 10 rebounds

That works out to an average of 10.25 rebounds over the last four games. Yes, small sample size and all that, but can anyone remember any four game stretch in LMA's entire career when he has averaged over 10 boards? You have to start somewhere, and my question to the community is:

Why is this happening now? Credit LMA? Credit Greg or others that are drawing more attention? Credit luck? Perhaps you think it's the matchups?

I'd love to trade theories with folks.

Poll

Will LMA average over 9 boards this season?

Yes

99 votes

No

73 votes

172 votes | Poll has closed

Great Night

hawkblogger — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 06:14:29 -0000

Great Night

The Nuggets lose their second in a row while getting their butts whupped in Atlanta. The Jazz lose to the Kings at home. Misery loves company!

McDyess praises Oden

hawkblogger — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 18:22:19 -0000

McDyess praises Oden

"(Oden) showed signs at some points in the game where he could be unstoppable if he just keeps working on his game," Spurs forward Antonio McDyess said. "He gets so deep in the post it’s like you can’t do nothing with him."