Recreating the aggregate is the idea of deriving the production of a certain lost player using others. It's generally thought of in the context of the loss of a superstar and was coined by Billy Beane after the departure of Jason Giambi from the Oakland A's in 2001. Giambi is no Pujols, but at the time he was coming off of a 9.3 WAR season. Pujols, on the other hand, only posted 5.1 WAR- the worst of his career, indicating the depth of the team that he is leaving behind. That said, the Cardinals finished behind by six games (to a Prince Fielder-less Brewers team) and also have not signed Rafael Furcal. There is the addition by subtraction of the retirement of Ryan Franklin, the departure of Miguel Batista, and the emergence of the young, good bullpen. After a few calculations, the team needs to make up around two Pujolses to have a comfortable shot at the division title. Where will this aggregate production come from?

First Base

It's actually possible to lose less than a Pujols by losing Pujols. Lance Berkman is projectable for 3.5 WAR at first, Craig for 3.5-4 WAR in the outfield. In this cascade of changes, Craig's spot on the bench opens up, and we can assume we lose at least 1 WAR there. This is a 3.5 WAR decline from the Pujols-having Cardinals.

Prince Fielder erases this discrepancy, but he is going to cost a lot of money. Having just avoided an albatross contract for a defensively limited superstar, Fielder will have to come relatively cheaply to be a good value, and even a six year contract is probably too long and at $25M or so per year, too expensive. Pass.

The Middle Infield

The middle infield is the most obvious spot where we could derive an additional Pujols, but as yet we haven't even added enough talent to assure the same production as last season. Mind-blowing as it may be, Ryan Theriot, Skip Schumaker, around 1/3 a season of Furcal, and Nick Punto combined for 4 WAR (mostly from Furcal and Punto despite their small amount of playing time). Greene and Descalso project at roughly 3 WAR and the bench player that plays behind them (Pete Kozma excepted) should be worth 1 WAR, and we have another player around replacement level, leaving us no worse off than we were last year.

The upside is if Furcal takes the place of Greene, Greene takes the place of Kozma, and Descalso plays against fewer left-handed pitchers. We gain 1.5-2 WAR. Punto's resigning adds another middle infielder and probably another 1 WAR, for an overall gain of 2.5 WAR.

Other scenarios exist where we trade for Stephen Drew, sign Jimmy Rollins (ugh), or trade for another player (Alexei Ramirez, Emilio Bonifacio (also ugh), etc).

Adam Wainwright (Pitching)

This is another area where we stand to gain big, the only question is how big. In a good, healthy year, Waino is worth one Pujols on his own, and he is replacing our worst pitcher- Kyle Mcclellan, who bounces around replacement level. Wainwright's three year average projection is 3.9 WAR. His Bill James projection is 4.8 WAR. I'm going to assume 4.0, but the upside for higher and the downside for lower is certainly there. The rest of our rotation, Carpenter, Lohse, Westbrook, and Garcia, is set in stone and only a blockbuster acquisition would supplant the sunk cost of Westbrook and Lohse's remaining contracts.

Yu Darvish and Hiroki Kuroda are the two starters who make the most sense for us in this case, since both are substantial improvements on Westbroke. They are polar opposite in terms of career and price position. Kuroda is likely to make a similar salary to Westbrook and to be available for a short term deal. Between posting and contract, Darvish is likely to command a price similar to Prince Fielder in the mid 100 millions (50-75M posting fee, 75M contract). Kuroda is a 1-2 WAR improvement on Westbrook. Darvish's valuation requires a bit of math.

In Japan, his K rate has been 8.9 for his career, but it has been higher in recent years, reaching almost 11 K/9 last year. His BB rate in Japan is 2.36/9 career but is also trending positively, reaching a fantastic 1.39/9 last year. In my mind there is no question that Darvish would be a fantastic pitcher in the states. Assuming the jump is equivalent to AAA to MLB, Darvish can be reasonably assumed to be an ace and a 5 WAR pitcher.

Our bullpen is also likely to provide a boost compared to last season, when they recieved almost -4.0 WAR from Franklin, Batsita, Miller, Tallet, and McClellan. The average team got 2.6 WAR from their pen last year. The Cardinals derived 0.7 WAR despite huge seasons from Motte and Salas. I am pegging this at a 2 WAR increase.

The Outfield

As of now, our OF is Holliday, Jay, and Craig along with the recently rule V'd Komatsu. I've covered Craig, so the main thing I want to talk about with our OF is how much worse our CF projects to be next year than last. Last year the Cards got 4.1 WAR from JazyRasmus and Jay, and I can't imagine a world where Jay projects to repeat that production. Given continued BABIP luck and defensive adequacy, Jay is worth 2.5-3 WAR. He still flashes surprising power but his plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired. He has the potential to repeat last year in more innings, but he is also a rather frightening candidate for overexposure and a crushing slump. He is decent against leftiest although he hits for almost no discernable power against them. With relatively little depth and a lack of a RH CF, a few names have been talked about as RH options to join our OF rotation: Carlos Beltran, Coco Crisp, Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron and Cody Ross.

Jones is, in my opinion, the worst option. He's essentially done as a center fielder, and isn't exactly killing it on offense either. He would be a nice second or third option, in the same way that Jay would be a nice first or second option.

Okay, maybe Jones is the second worst option. Mike Cameron was below replacement level last season, seems to have no heart left for the game, and is 38.

Cody Ross is arguably the best option that will play for league minimum (assuming Coco Crisp gets a real contract). Still an average-ish CF, not old, and above average against lefties. He is the bench bat/defensive replacement I would most prefer and is certainly 1-2 WAR better than our current RH CF option (Shane Robinson?).

Crisp can probably still hack it as a full-time CF and is a limited but decent offensive player. He probably projects better than Cody Ross, though I am not sure he would actually be better.

Carlos Beltran is the only person worth a real contract here. A natural righty with a weird power-one-side patience-one-side split, he is still flat-out fantastic on offense on both sides. His defense is bad. There's a lot of danger here, but Beltran would arguably be our second best hitter right now and his projection is probably around 3.5 WAR. His signing would complicate matters in the outfield and at first base, but between him and Lance Berkman there are probably only two intact knee joints. They will both need the rest. His contract demands are unknown to me, but if he could be had for a year at $10M or two years at 6-8M each I think he is a good bet to return surplus value on those deals.

And before I forget: Yoennis Cespedes. He's the CF version of Yu Darvish, if reports are to be believed. For us, he is a strong buy. We don't have the young, top-end talent in position players, and we aren't going to strike Lance-Berkman-shaped gold veins every year. God knows what his Cuban league stats mean- they might as well have been posted in the Martian-Lunar Summer League, but the reports are good and the reports are saying $40-50M. In order to return value on that investment he only needs to approximate Jay's production, and we are in something of a position to take risks like this. The main problem is that he doesn't play shortstop. I'm not even going to hazard a guess at his likely WAR. I assume it will be somewhere between negative 0.5 and 12.7.

Other/Postscript

Internal assets also exist. The three that seem most likely to make a splash in 2011 are Ryan Jackson, Matt Carpenter, and Shelby Miller.

Carpenter had nothing left to prove last year during spring training, and he...continues to have nothing left to prove. He needs to be given a shot on this team, and between him and David Freese, I am confident that the team will not be further cursed by 3B, although I don't see it as a position where huge gains will be made. Perhaps 1-2 WAR from lil Carp.

Ryan Jackson on a good day is maybe a 1-100 shot to make the team this year. He isn't likely to set the world on fire if he does, in any case, since his strong defense, pray-his-offense-isn't-terrible offense is usually only a skillset worth 1-2 WAR.

Shelby Miller likely will spend the entire season in AAA, but if an injury occurs and he ends up replacing Westbrook or Lohse, he could add 1 WAR over their production on the season. More likely, Lynn, Boggs, and AAA backups to backups will fill in and be, hopefully, adequate.

And Finally

My numbers say we get a Pujols back from our pitching alone. Waino plus Motte's apple Salsa in the bullpen are big upgrades over their predecessors. I don't think we pick up a Pujols with any other internal moves, but there is always the possibility of a Tyler Greene breakout (I guess). Furcal and Punto add about half a Pujols. Fielder or Darvish certainly adds a Pujols but basically soaks up the savings of the original Pujols leaving and does it on a pretty high risk, long-term contract. Beltran could easily add a Pujols, and he could easily require another knee surgery in April. His median projection is around half a Pujols, but he might come at only a third of the cost, making him one of the favored moves. Cespedes adds somewhere between zero and five Pujolses, and I kind of like the sound of that as well.

On a scale of likelihood, to me, it seems to be Furcal first, Beltran second, stand pat or make incremental moves like Punto and Cody Ross third, a trade for a MIF fourth, Cespedes fifth, Kuroda infinitesimally likely, Darvish in my dreams, and Fielder in John Mozeliak's nightmares.

There's good news and there's bad news. The bad news seems to be that Adam Wainwright has torn the UCL in his pitching elbow and will have to have tommy-john surgery. That sound you're hearing is some combination of the brick that John Mozeliak is dropping, the gasps and wails of a few hundred thousand Cards fans, and the dollar signs turning up in a Kevin-Millwood's-head-shaped slot machine.

So, is the season over? Is Waino's career in danger? Well, the logical answer to both of those questions is no. But damnit if it doesn't feel like my dog just died. If Waino has surgery tonight, he is a 90% bet to recover, but it will be at least four months before he can even start rehabilitating his elbow, and 6-8 months after that before he will be realistically able to even attempt to actually pitch baseball games again. That's March April May June July August September October November December January minimum.

The Cardinals were a just-over 90 win team and were projected basically within the margin of error with the Reds and perhaps just above that against the Brewers. Waino was worth 6.1 WAR in last year. If Wainwright's replacement is the old man Batista, I fully expect them to finish third. The remainder of the depth chart falls below.

In-house:

Ian Snell is technically a major-league pitcher. Ian Snell was sub-replacement level in 2010. He's a bit of depth, but the team just isn't constructed to give him a chance to find his way at the ML level.

Kyle McClellan has long been rumored as a starting candidate, and he has looked like the poor-man's Adam Wainwright at times. Unfortunately that poor man is an unemployed college student who drinks too heavily, or at least he would need to be to mistake McClellan for Waino. He throws a bunch of pitches and one of them is a curveball, and he has been reasonably not-terrible in the bullpen but he would need to sustain his bullpen numbers and take a big step forward to be a frontline starter. He has decent odds of being put into the rotation, and he could be an average pitcher for us this season.

Minor leaguers:

Lance Lynn could be one of the most exciting or most terrifying pitchers on this list, depending on your opinion on the reality of his 97 MPH fastball from late last year. His stuff sounds a lot like Brad Penny. His minor league stats look like the kind that would translate into a major leaguer like Kyle McClellan. He seems like the favorite for the job at this point.

PJ Walters. Nah I'm just messing with you.

Shelby Miller was good in A-ball last year. He was born in 1990 which, if my math is correct, makes him 14 years old. That kind of a thing hasn't been done since that movie about that kid on the Cubs and we all know how that turned out. Plus if we're doing movie stereotypes, we could just bring up Samuel to do a Charlie Sheen impression.

Kevin Millwood:

Kevin Millwood seems like the only free agent of any value. He's a year older than Chris Carpenter. He was crappy last season. His fastball hit a career low in velocity at 89.0 MPH. He just started giving up more flies than grounders and has a K/BB right around 2.0. His swinging strike % dropped to 5.9. He would need a strong dose of Dave Duncan's magic to get his GB rate up, walks down, and HR rate down.

Ugh.

 After writing a glowing analysis of Harden's history and fawning over him last offseason, I got to see him sign with Texas while the Cardinals signed Brad Penny on a similar contract to fill a Harden-shaped hole in my heart. Then we got to watch Penny pull a Harden impression, being a fantastic pitcher for a tiny amount of time, while we got to see Harden do a spot-on Todd Wellemeyer impression in Texas for a short time before being demoted and disappearing from the public eye. What can you say about a pitcher whose BB rate is higher than the Cardinals top three starters combined?

We should sign him.

via www.fantasyphenoms.com

Thanks to cognitive dissonance, people are really good at rationalizing and pretending that their mistakes were not mistakes.  Did all of the Branch Davidians want to sleep with David Koresh and get killed by the ATF? Of course not. People often stick with a mistaken choice simply because they feel as though they have invested something in it. Yes, Rich Harden has treated me badly, but I know deep down that he loves me!

Psychoanalysis aside, a big reason I think that Harden has something left in the tank is the way he got his awful results. In the conveniently-no-longer-available comments section to my article, I criticized the Texas signing, saying that a flyballer like Harden was no fit for a park and outfield defense like Texas. Harden, who has always thrown up in the zone and who has always given up too many home runs and too many fly balls, responded to the move by posting his worst GB/FB rate of his entire career on his way to a ricocktaculous 1.7 HR/9. He lost two MPH from his average fastball velocity, and he started throwing a really crappy changeup/sinker and moving away from his excellent slider.

The velocity drop is probably not real or is probably only somewhat real: Harden's more varied pitch use seems to have confused the hell out of Fangraphs, and I can't supplement the data breakdown on my own. I can only say it seems extremely fishy and that it appears that Harden's top-end velocity of 92+ remains somewhat intact.

Harden will never again be a major-league caliber pitcher if he can't get his HR/9 under control, but the K/BB of Sidney Ponson aren't going to cut it either. It seems to me that that is at least partially attributable to the cascade of problems: New pitch selection for more grounders->huge drop in whiff%->failure of new pitch selection to increase GB%->panic->water fluoridation->???->profit!

Harden is, as of now, completely broken. Instead of looking like he could be coming into his own, Harden looks like he made all the wrong changes and is no longer a major leaguer. So why would we sign a person like this? I forget. He really is completely wrong for us. Pretend I never mentioned it. I wonder if he will call me...

via redstatebluestate.mlblogs.com

 

Instead of overreacting and calling Colby Rasmus a bust, or talking about Matt Holliday not living up to his mega contract, saddling us with a massive albatross, or our offensive binge and purge cycles, or our freak pitcher (not pitching) injuries, let's talk about something happy. Let's talk about something interesting.

How about compartment syndrome?

A lot of what I'm going to put down has already been posted in daily threads, so I'd like to h/t prophetjohn, ribbij, and anyone else who has nefdex'ed this information. On the other hand, I think it's a good idea to compile it, and I think I have a few things to add.

First, a story.

My cousin was a teenager and a driven athlete. She swam competitively, raced in triathlons, and spent the majority of her free time racing and training to race. Her only problem was herself. She as too driven. She was too obsessed with pushing herself harder, going farther, faster, and she had an incredible pain tolerance. Before she was 18, she had already had rotator cuff surgery, and she had her acetabular labrum repaired in the middle of the summer at the height of her season because the pain and weakness had become unbearable. When she talked about subtle calf pains and numbness in her feet, it was just another of her stories. How was the race? What's causing you unbearable pain now?

She still has both her legs, and she's still walking and working out the way normal people do, but the peak of her athletic endeavors has passed, and sometimes I have to carry her if the kids are hanging out and she has to walk too far. Even after surgery to release the pressure built up under the tissues in her legs, she suffers symptoms of compartment syndrome or nerve injury, and it's a pretty frightening and very disabling problem for distance runners. I knew her situation was bad when she told me the doctor had recommended useless acupuncture treatments to help her get her mind off of the injury.

Zooming back out, I think the disease has been pretty well described here: Compartments exist all over the body. Your brain is inside one. Your heart is inside one that is inside a larger compartment that contains many of your organs. Muscles are grouped with nerves and blood vessels and they are constrained inside compartments of connective tissue. The syndrome is a result of the expansion of the muscle inside the fascia, which causes the pressure inside to rise.  While any body compartment with confined bleeding or muscle expansion can cause symptoms, the syndrome that we are talking about usually refers to a problem in the lower legs or the forearms where anatomically the muscles are tightly confined

Usually the result of this increased pressure is severe pain during movement, along with tingling and numbness that result from restricted blood supply and compressed nerves. While the prognosis for more acute cases of compartment syndrome is usually good (stop the bleeding, heal the damage, cure the syndrome), it can be a bigger problem for athletes with chronic compartment syndrome. Conservative treatments like therapy and cortisone are not usually recommended, and often surgery is required.

Kyle Lohse has been having effectiveness problems for some time, but it's unclear how long his compartment syndrome has lasted or how severe it is. As a chronic condition it has probably been developing for months or years, and I'm not sure exactly of the relationship between his injury last season and his injury this season.

Because Kyle's problems last season started with a contusion, it's possible that his initial problems more closely resembled acute compartment syndrome, but considering the surgical intervention he is now set to undergo, I think his problem is chronic and could even be unrelated or at least not entirely attributable to his repeated contusions last season.

My cousin's surgery had them cutting straight down the fronts of her legs parallel and almost the entire length of the shin bone to create space for the muscles to expand. Kyle's surgery should be similar, but because the actual muscle involvement is unclear, it's possible that he will undergo a less invasive procedure. Because of my experience with my cousin and other runners, I can't say I'm excited about his prospects and I hope his surgery is substantially different and more successful than theirs.

Here's to happier times, and I hope Kyle makes it back from this one. If not, I'll try to forget the contract and remember things like this:

 

via www.midwestsportsfans.com

This is all Matt Clement's fault.

 

With the signing of Rich Hill, some of us declared that he would be a possible midseason candidate for the fifth spot of the Memphis rotation. He'd been signed for nothing, and that was fine, but there just wasn't any way he was going to become an impact player in anything but the long and optimistic term. He was fusion energy. He was a lottery ticket. A good sign that Mo was still rooting through the bottom of the TJ Maxx bin with all of the designer items, and a small thing that we could needle our Cubs friends about, but nothing more.

Small sample size warning, but Rich Hill just made himself a candidate for the 25 man roster.

So how in the bloody hell did that happen? Rich Hill had torn his labrum, and I'm pretty sure Will Carroll said pitchers with labrum tears should go die in a fire along with Justin Bieber and the cast of Jersey Shore.

via profile.ak.fbcdn.net

The simple fact that Hill can throw a baseball today rather than six to nine months from today means his labrum tear probably couldn't have been higher than grade II. Labrum tears are graded, by the way, on a scale from I-IV.

I'm going to ramp up the terminology, so here goes. The labrum we are talking about is called the Glenoid Labrum. It's a ring of cartilage that expands to form the socket of the ball and socket joint that is the shoulder. It can be torn many ways (Aside: many, many god damn ways), most commonly through shoulder dislocations, however dislocation tears are much less serious than the tears suffered by pitchers. The difference is mostly location: Tears in the normal population affect the front and underside of the labrum- just above the inside of your armpit. Tears to throwers affect the top of the labrum, under the deltoid muscle, and they are called SLAP tears. The reason they are more serious, is that the pitcher uses their arm a lot more often than the average person, and the location of the tear (top and back of the labrum) involved the point that the biceps muscle connects to the larger connective tissue structure.

Still with me?

These tears (SLAP tears) are graded based upon severity, and based on the tissue involved. If the posterior (back) of the labrum is a bit frayed, but the biceps tendon is uninvolved, that's about as good as it gets. Avulsion is the term for an injury where one structure pulls away from another: Avulsion of the labrum from the scapula (the connective tissue pulling away from the bone) is another problem that arises in labrum injuries and causes a lot of the instability, increasing the grade of the injury from I to II. The worst thing you can find is a deep labrum tear that includes a tear of the biceps tendon (grade IV)- no pitcher that I know of has ever recovered from this injury.

When a doctor talks about "debridement" that means he was cutting away frayed and worthless tissue that was probably causing inflammation. When a doctor talks about repair, that usually means the reconnection of an avulsion injury to stabilize the joint, or suturing of the biceps attachment. I and III tears are usually only debrided, while II and IV grade tears are repaired.

Other findings in a labrum repair include bursitis, cysts, and joint capsule or rotator cuff problems. When the body attempts to repair the damage to the joint, it initiates a series of reactions that cause inflammation, which engorges the structures in the area with fluid, sometimes causing more problems. Cysts are formed by the body in reaction to tears and other problems to isolate areas of damage. Inflammation often causes joint capsule and rotator cuff problems because there is less space for these structures to move around one another.

Here's an article.

Some of the terminology used in the article doesn't sound right to me, and it's not just the thing about Hill being a Tony Robbins fan:

explaining how only a thread of the labrum had to be repaired and not the whole liner within the joint.

That's a very odd thing to say about the tissue, because the labrum doesn't exactly thread around  (except at the biceps attachment, a spot that Hill probably didn't tear or didn't tear very much if at all). This sounds more like Hill is talking about the joint capsule or misusing the word thread.

Since the procedure was limited to correcting the sliver of labrum causing impingement in his joint

This is also a bit odd. Labrum problems are bad because they usually cause a lot of instability and weakness (this is why it made sense that Hill lost all of his command: A labrum injury implied that his upper arm wasn't as tightly connected to his body as it had been)- not necessarily impingement. The term impingement applied to the shoulder almost always means bursitis or tendonitis. Bursitis does often present as part of the entire shoulder injury syndrome along with joint capsule tearing and labrum fraying, but they are different things that cause different problems.

 

In all, I'd say I'll be ecstatic if Hill proves me wrong and really tears it up this spring. A true contest for the back end of the rotation would be excellent. It seems obvious that he had a good surgeon and some good luck with his shoulder, but only time will tell if he is truly healthy and truly ready to pitch.

Before I jump into this, I'm going to do a bit of vocab.

Inflammation is a word that gets thrown around quite a bit in medicine. It's an extremely common symptom, and it shows up in nearly every type of pathology. Inflammation is basically your body's first immune response to anything that bothers or threatens it. It's a complex reaction, but it basically begins and is mostly characterized by swelling caused by a rushing of plasma and white blood cells to the affected area. Swelling alone is not inflammation- it's also characterized by redness, tenderness and pain, an inflamed area sometimes feels hot (hence the name inflameation), and sometimes it becomes unusable.

Any medical term ending in -itis refers to inflammation. Thus, gingivitis is inflammation of the gums, arthritis is inflammation in the joints. Plantar fasciitis is inflammation around the plantar fascia.

The Plantar Fascia is a band of connective tissue that runs from the bottom of the heel to the beginnings of the toes. There is a thin layer of fascia that occurs throughout the body. This layer lies below the skin and on top of the muscles.

via www.ortho-net.com

The plantar fascia is thickened and adapted for weight-bearing. By stretching tightly across the underside of the foot, the plantar fascia helps to support the arch in the foot. When people are born, the plantar fascia runs under the heel and connects to the achilles tendon. Over time this connection deteriorates, and most adults have little to no connective tissue between the achilles and the plantar fascia. When calcifications begin to occur near the area of the attachment of the plantar fascia to the heel, they're called heel spurs.

via upload.wikimedia.org

In this image you can see the calcification stretching out into the region where the plantar fascia lies. You've probably heard of heel spurs as being painful or problematic, but the problem isn't the spur itself (which is sometimes asymptomatic and is a soft calcification, not hard and sharp like an actual spur), but the cause of the spur- tension and inflammation.

Plantar fasciitis itself usually presents as a sharp pain in the heel, sometimes after standing for a long period or (in older people) resting or sleeping, and sometimes extending along the instep or rarely along the middle or outside of the foot to the toes. Because the condition is often associated with incidental heel spurs, it used to be called heel spurs, but as I said earlier, it's now known that the spurs are not the source of the pain (and their removal does not confer any benefit to the patient).

It's caused by small tears in the connective tissue which result in inflammation. The sharp pain is a result of the tension of the structures and the anatomically confined nature of the area where inflammation occurs. Standing on the affected foot, pulling up on the toes, and athletic activities can be painful for a person with plantar fasciitis. Other than pain that ranges from barely-noticeable aches to intense stabbing, there are few symptoms. It sometimes gets worse with use, but it also sometimes responds well to calf and other stretches.

There's little that can be done to fix the problem in the short term, because it's caused by an underlying injury to a connective tissue structure. The quickest fix is anti-inflammatory drugs followed by rest, however, an athlete can work around fasciitis if the pain is bearable. This is what we witnessed in 2004 when Albert Pujols played through the pain and was still able to turn in a stellar season. Usually the problem simply takes time to improve as the connective tissue heals and the body accommodates the increased pressure in the area.

"Calf muscle and/or plantar fascia specific stretching can provide short-term pain relief."

via www.nypost.com

Also, there's been a bit of speculation about PF on Colby-wan's heel injury. I'll admit that if he did have a plantar injury that he was trying to play through, this is sort of what it would look like (off every few days for pain or inflammatory drugs), but I have a few issues with this explanation:

1. No one from the FO has breathed a word of it.

2. TLR cannot resist this face:

via www.red-hot-mama.com

Now that the obligatory "Smoltz has been tipping his pitches and has ironed out the flaw thanks to Dave Duncan/Chris Carpenter/Albert Pujols" article has come out, I'm just wondering: Is it all bullcrap? Is there anything to this story when it comes out? Obviously it can't always be true, but I wonder if it's ever true. Within my experience there are only a few specific ways I know of to tip pitches, and they aren't that difficult to iron out.

Messing with the glove is the main one- a pitcher who just reaches into his glove and immediately starts his windup is probably throwing a pitch with a simple grip, while a twist of the glove hand wrist can indicate a grip change. Otherwise, there are release point changes, but pitchers often can succeed with pretty significant release point differences (ala David Cone, Bronson Arroyo).

Basically, I'm wondering if there are any other big tips. I'm not really interested in Smoltz specifically, because it seems obvious that the reasons for his success were his good splitter and slider, keeping the ball down, and maybe the extra MPH he was getting on his FB yesterday.

Instead of writing about any of the good suggestions I got, I'm going to post on something that actually worries me this time. As of this writing we've got two starters (Boog and Dero) and one guy who was slated to be a starter (Mather) all with some degree of wrist injury. I'll try to avoid the cliches (I think we all have heard a wrist injury saps a player's power for a pretty long time).

The wrist is made up of the distal ends of the bones of the forearm and eight carpal bones. It's encased in a series of ligaments that form a layer of connective tissue wrapping around the wrist, along with a series of ligaments that connect the carpal bones to one another. The ligaments really do most of the work, and this allows for a huge range of motion.

Wrist injuries come in a few main types. Bone fractures are breaks in the bones that make up the wrist. Sprains are injuries to the ligamentous sheath of the wrist (usually an incomplete or complete tear). Strains are injuries to the muscles, however since the primary muscles are further up the forearm, there aren't really any common wrist strains.

A broken wrist usually means one of a few specific bones. The most common fracture is to the distal forearm.

via www.orthosupersite.com

Depending on the exact nature of the fracture, the distal forearm fracture is actually the best wrist break to have. This is because it's actually an arm bone that is broken, and it often heals just fine and in a relatively short amount of time with a caste. More severe forearm fractures require some form of fixation either a plate and screws attached directly to the bone itself or an external fixator. Evan Longoria had a similar fracture (pictured above is a Colles radius fracture, his was a fracture of the tip of the ulna, even less serious) late last season and he was back in time for the playoffs. Yadier Molina probably had a similar injury in 2007 when his wrist was broken by a foul ball.

More significant problems arise when you break bones in the jumbled bunch (the carpals) above the forearm. These bones are tightly connected to one another, and a break rarely occurs without some amount of displacement. Pain during movement is what limits players' power and it can last for a long time after the original break.

via www.ucgc.org  

(The first metacarpal is the base of the thumb, the tip of the ulna is that bump on the outside of your wrist)

This is is exactly what happened to Joe Mather, who broke the hamate bone of his wrist in 2008 and had surgery to remove it (probably the whole bone). Apparently this surgery didn't do the trick as he had a second less specific wrist surgery to end his 2009 season. The removal of a broken wrist bone is necessary in some cases to avoid complications resulting from the lack of blood supply to the carpal bones. Even if this isn't the case, the bones usually take longer than normal to heal because of this lack. Mather's wrist is scary because of the lingering nature of his problems. For all we know he could have nerve damage or necrosis.

Wrist sprains occur in any of the four main ligaments that form the sheath of the wrist (one is on top, one bottom, and one on either side), or in one of a number of smaller ligaments that stabilize the joint. They are just like other sprains and are treated with wraps and time.

As an aside, Brendan Ryan hand a cortisone injection in his wrist. Cortisone is a corticosteroid that suppresses the immune system and is used to combat inflammation (a painful immune response). I really can't find any information on Ryan's reputed history of wrist problems, but cortisone doesn't exactly cure anything, so depending on if this is arthritic or ligamentous, it could easily crop up again.

Mark DeRosa strained a tendon in his wrist (tendons connect muscle to bone, ligaments connect bones to other bones), and has not played in just under a week. This injury is probably of a lingering nature as even the day after the trade (June 28) he had his left wrist heavily taped.

via upload.wikimedia.org

In any case it's probably nothing too scary and should be fine in a few days.

While I could post in the main thread about this, I'm instead going to make a fanpost because I deal with this ALL the time at my job and want to really clear it up. I debated whether this was really fanpost-worthy, but here goes.

Colby Rasmus has sat out two games with a stomach condition, probably gastritis (painful stomach lining inflammation), caused by a hiatal hernia. Hernia is the scary part, but this is the main thing I want to clear up. A herniation is any type of protrusion of a structure through the membrane that it should be anatomically confined inside. The scary hernias are sports hernias and herniated discs, both usually resulting from various types of strain and athletic activity (I could explain these further, but I'd rather just get to the point). Other hernias are just annoying, like the hiatal hernia (I think hemorrhoids might be a herniation as well).

At any rate, a hiatal hernia is an extremely common condition in which the top of your stomach begins to protrude through the diaphragm and into the thorax. 

via upload.wikimedia.org

This is almost always asymptomatic, present in many, many adults, and is treated through more fiber intake, and the use of antacids to control the heartburn that it can exacerbate (it promotes reflux because stomach contents can slow or briefly stop their progress above the diaphragm). Large herniations sometimes require surgery, but this is extremely, extremely rare (I've never actually seen one large enough to require surgery).

via download.imaging.consult.com

They are usually an incedental finding on x-ray exams involving the drinking of contrast, and they look exactly like what they are. On the film above the stomach is the big lower blob, the esophagus is the blob that trails off the top of the image, and the hernia is the bit attached to the larger stomach and trapped above the diaphragm that you can see pinching the two. This film is of a bit more serious type of herniation, but you get the idea. You can also see them on normal chest films if there is enough air in the stomach.

In closing:

1. Do not worry. You might have a similar herniation and if you do there is a 90% chance you will never know about it.

2. Colby needs to eat fiber, and the reason eating late at night also causes him problems is that increasing the acid in his stomach and then laying down for several hours also causes reflux, which is made worse by the hernia.

3. Let's drink!

I'm really interested in statistical analysis, but all of the advice I find is for windows machines. For instance, the Building a Sabermetrician's Workbench series (Colin Wyers) that details use of MySQL and such loses me just a few steps in because while Macs can run the MySQL program, I don't have the skills to use it in the raw form and programs  to help that the series details are windows programs (SQLyog). There is a popular Mac program but by all accounts it sucks. Also you can apparently use SQLyog on a mac if you go a few steps further and install some more stuff, I'm just not sure if this is the best way to proceed and I'm wondering if anyone here uses a Mac and what programs they are using.

Right now there's always Excel, but I'd love to know some good Mac programs for the various fields (PfX, SQL, etc.). I am not entirely opposed to buying things but I'd prefer free.

Giants Sign Randy Johnson

Eight mil, with incentives to push it to 13m.

They pay Renteria almost twice what he's worth, then they get RJ for half his worth. What the hell are they doing being smart?

I can't understand why this wasn't us offering this contract. It's short, below market, has huge upside, is for a starter. This is just extremely disappointing. RJ was stellar last year, and he played in a bandbox with a terrible defense. He moves to a big park with a terrible defense. I can't stop thinking this could have been our big park with our good defense.

"And the rich get richer..."

is one way you might think of it. On the other hand, the Red Sox are outbid, and with the emergence of Tampa Bay, they could suddenly be the third best team in that division. While it's true that Yankees fans are historically more annoying than any others, it's also true that Red Sox fans have become more than insufferable in the last few years.

From wikipedia:

A home run by David Ortiz and a five out win by Keith Foulke helped the Red Sox win game 1. They won game 2 thanks to six innings from starter Curt Schilling. The Red Sox won the first two games despite committing four errors in each of them. Seven innings from Pedro Martínez where he did not allow a run helped the Red Sox win game 3. A home run by Johnny Damon in the first inning won game four for the Red Sox to secure series. The Cardinals never led in any of the four games in the series and trailed at some point of every inning in all four games. Manny Ramírezwas named the Most Valuable Player (MVP) of the series.

 

I have hated the Red Sox passionately ever since, and absolutely every single event that goes against them, I cherish. The Teixera signing I cherish too, and I don't much care if the Yankees are evil or whatever. They play in a far away place in another league. In addition, all of the credit the Red Sox have been getting over the years, along with all the jackass fandom they have been sporting since the day after they won has gotten too trite to bear. The only thing the Yankees can usually do that has any effect on me is beating the Red Sox, and I hope that happens far, far more often now.

First, what is everyone expecting from Hochevar? Personally, I expect nothing. I think Hochevar sucks and I think his time has passed. His mechanics have always been questionable (hung-arms Tom House pose), and he has never been able to put it together at any level for any length of time. Even when he has been able to post decent ERAs in small sample sizes his peripherals have been terrible. His FIP has never been good. None of his pitches grades highly. He has been touted by many as having the potential to be a #3 starter, but I can scarcely see that. Why do people like Hochevar at all?

 

Second, how likely is it that Joakim Soria gets a shot at the rotation? He seems like the utter anti-Hochevar: A guy who was drafted late and never given much of a shot despite consistently looking very good with the stuff and peripherals to back it up. He pounds the strike zone, and has several decent pitches (compared to, say, Hochevar who has zero). Also, I've heard he's the closer to limit his injury risk. Excuse me? As far as I know, he has never had one single injury and was a starter for his entire minor league/mexican league career. I remember hearing one person say his mechanics were bad, but I haven't seen anything to substantiate this claim.

Can we please give the Chris Duncan trade suggestions a rest? Literally every thread regarding personnel has at least half a dozen comments speculating as to what he could get us from the Rockies, Marlins, etc. or regarding how much SF needs a LH hitting 1B or how we can do without whatever other player because, hey, we always have Chris Duncan.

Chris Duncan has a herniated cervical disc. This is an extremely serious injury and it will be at least several months before anyone knows if he will have a shot at ever playing baseball again. Generally the treatment for C-disc herniations is not surgical, indicating that his injury is more serious than usual and probably occurred because of trauma. Generally the surgery performed to decompress the nerve involves complete disc removal, and it often involves fusion of vertebrae which causes permanent loss of range of motion. Surgery that does not fuse vertebrae is riskier and more difficult because it requires manipulation of the spinal cord itself.

These obvious problems with the trade aside, Chris Duncan has scarcely proven anything at the major league level and no one has any idea how Dave Duncan would react to this trade idea. No one in the front office has ever brought up Chris's name as someone who was even a possible trade chip.

Please stop suggesting we trade Chris Duncan. Please stop speculating as to his value.

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/09/elias-ranking-2.html

 

This could be great for us. Offering arbitration to Springer could get us a cheap, productive reliever, or it could get us some excellent draft picks. What would arbitration for him look like?

Isringhausen is a type B.

What's the best thing to do with these two? Don't we have to make an offer to get these draft picks? Does the risk with Izzy mean he's not even worth an offer?

Also, two decent targets for the cardinals, Rhodes and Ohman are not even type B, so signing them is draft-neutral.

Supposedly we will have a bunch of cap room in this coming offseason $25-40 Million. According to many, the biggest weakness on the team is the offensively challenged middle infield. Our current (much maligned) middle infield looks like Izturis SS, Kennedy 2b, Miles 2b/SS, Lopez SS/2b(?).

Coming into next year, with the almost-certain departure of Izturis (neither Miles nor Lopez are under contract for next year), it's  Brendan Ryan slotted for full-time at short, unless it's Miles (shriek), with Kennedy at 2b.

On the farm there are the well respected SS prospects, Pete Kozma (Quad cities/Palm Beach) and Jose Martinez (Springfield) who are both far away from ready. Also, there are several 2b's who don't really project as better than what we've got.

These are the MI's who've got free agency coming up (from Cot's Baseball Contracts).

2B

Jamey Carroll * CLE

Ray Durham MIL

Mark Ellis OAK

Marcus Giles COL

Mark Grudzielanek KC

Orlando Hudson ARZ

Jeff Kent LAD

Felipe Lopez WAS/STL

Pablo Ozuna LAD

Nick Punto MIN

Jose Valentin NYM

Jose Vidro * SEA

SS

Orlando Cabrera CWS

Alex Cintron CWS

Alex Cora BOS

Craig Counsell * MIL

Adam Everett MIN

Rafael Furcal LAD

Cesar Izturis STL

Ramon Martinez LAD

Edgar Renteria * DET

Juan Uribe CWS

* denotes an option for 2009.

 

Not a particularly inspiring list. Honestly, I like Adam Everett because he will be dirt cheap which will allow us to pursue offense somewhere else or spend money on pitching (AJ I love you!).

Also, there has been a lot of talk about trading for a MI with some offense (usually centered around Dan Uggla (vomit)), and the three that appear most likely to be on the block this offseason are JJ Hardy, Jimmy Rollins, and  Dan Uggla (ughhh).

All three of these players are quantum leaps ahead of our current MI in terms of offense. None of them are better at their positions on defense (though only Uggla figures to be a significant downgrade).

JJ Hardy, various reports have said that the Brewers would be willing to trade Hardy if they feel Alcides Escobar is ready next year. The main problem with this trade is, what can the Cardinals offer for Hardy? The primary weakness of the Brewers is their relief, and it's not a strong suit for us either. I think our most likely point would be Mike Cameron's departure from center field, and Hardy would probably cost us Colby and another player.

Jimmy Rollins. This is mostly conjectural, but superstars in Philly have often gotten on the bad side of the fanbase, never to be forgiven (Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen) and only booed mercilessly until their trades. Rollins, with one gaffe after another, looks to be in the inescapable Philly doghouse. Philadelphia's starting pitching could use a boost, and without Rollins the left side of their infield will be pretty shabby. Not sure exactly what this trade would entail, however (let's hear some ideas!). Also, Rollins is an aging player who could be entering his decline phase (hitting 260-ish this year, yikes!).

Dan Uggla (seriously, Dan Uggla?). I loathe the idea of Dan Uggla on the Cardinals. He's the all-HR's no-brains player that demands gigantic contracts (Andruw Jones style) and remains utterly unpredictable on offense and defense. Also, he's at the defensively less difficult position. No consistency, no glove, I'd rather have Khalil Greene. At any rate, the Marlins are always willing to make a deal, although this one as well as the others would have to come after the season ends. Talk has been bandied about him costing Colby and a(maybe even two) very good pitching prospect(s), and the Marlins are reputed to be looking for a CF and are always after pitchers. However, I imagine Uggla could be had for a Skip Schumaker/Anderson package because of their needs at CF and catcher.

Speaking of Khalil Greene, I'm going to profile a trade for him because of his recent struggles (okay, recent apocalyptic loss of all discernable ability). Greene could possibly be had for cheap because god only knows what he will do next season! A high-pop low-everything else Dan Uggla type hitter who actually plays decent defense and can run bases. Could resurrect himself in STL where his power that was swallowed up in San Diego could break out. Isn't SD in need of a catcher?

To end it, I'd just like to say that the MI market is a bit crazy right now. I doubt we will even have a shot at FA's like Cabrera or Furcal, while the trades  are probably going to be costly. I think our best bet is either a cheap FA SS or two, along with an exploration of the trade market that leaves us open for a shot at some of the good FA pitchers (please please Burnett for the love of god!).

Alright, that's all I've got for now. Let me know what you guys think or if you know of any other possible trades or FA targets.

While it's obvious now that the cardinals would not be in this predicament without his reliance on "proven" bullpen guys like Izzy and franklin (despite horrific peripherals behind even decent results), I'm inclined to say that TLR's style is good for this team, and most of his meddling is either good or a wash.

The hate just seems disproportionate to the results; I'd rather have TLR than Ned Yost, upon whom I'd blame the Brewers' collapse last year, and upon whom I hope to blame their collapse this year. While he does seem to keep the young guys sort of under his thumb, it beats getting into fistfights with them, or ending up with a young team like Arizona where the "hustle" gets out of control and errors are made, or it becomes idiotic and balls end up in the stands.

We can't blame TLR for burning up our young arms like the Cubs blame dusty, or for running Corey Patterson out there to lead off for years after it's proven he is incapable.

Most of the bullpen trouble should be blamed on regression toward FIP ERA's as Izzy and Franklin's BABIP's rose above .250 (both are now in the .320 range). Some of the bullpen trouble this year can also be blamed on the departure of Troy Percival; As unexpected as franklin and izzy were last year, Percival also had 40 innings of an anomalous 1.8 ERA.

The starting of FLopez, because of his anomalous splits vs. specific pitchers the last few days may be based on aberrant information, but sometimes the manager just has to convince people he is helping for them to tweak their results. Like the pitcher who appears to shine the ball, or the pitch that appears to rise, sometimes it's just psychological.

The most annoying things about TLR for me are his patronizing animal love and his DUI. Most of his baseball is sound.