SB Nation User Blog: hazel

Remaining Unsigned Arms

hazel — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 00:29:59 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

This just in; blogger spots flaw in Chien-Ming Wang's approach by analyzing widely available stills of his training. "I just knew there was something wrong with this picture." The blogger told other bloggers.

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It's hump day of finals week, so I'm making this one short, but I wanted to get a word in on the recently non-tendered arms before any of them get...tendered.

The most interesting non-tender, IMHO anyway, is Chien-Ming Wang, he of the shoulder capsule repair surgery, baserunning foot injury, release point inconsistencies, and formerly insanely fast and dominant sinker. This isn't to say he's the most valuable, most likely to be healthy, most...anything other than interesting. The connective tissue of the shoulder includes the glenoid labrum and cartilage, the tendons and muscles of the rotator cuff, and the ligaments of the shoulder capsule. It seems unlikely, to me at least, that Wang somehow was able to only injure the capsule, and the more I read about his injury, the more I think he's unlikely to recover according to the current timetable. I could easily see him recovering from this relatively minor surgery, pitching half a season, and then dropping out again for a more serious surgery in the same way Erik Bedard did in 2008-09.

Matt Capps is another interesting non-tender, but the questions surrounding him are less about health and more about whether he's going to reassert the same brand of dominance he had earlier in his career. He's among the few pitchers you might root for to throw less strikes, but there it is. He doesn't walk anyone, but his results are much more dependent on batted-ball luck than other pitchers. His luck will probably change, but unless his approach changes, he's unlikely to become less dependent on it. There are dozens of pitchers who have come up and dominated in relief for a single season, only to have their luck run dry or their game figured out, failing to ever deliver on early or mid-career promise. Is Capps among them? Some of them eventually turn themselves back into pretty good pitchers (Rafael Betancourt), some implode (JJ Putz), and some are Blaine Boyer (Blaine Boyer).

Mike MacDougal continues to throw very hard. I mean, just insanely fast.

via www.fangraphs.com

Velocity isn't everything, but there are often comments made about a pitcher like MacDougal that his fastball is too "straight". I've never seen any of that substantiated. If MacDougal could get his fastball into the zone, he'd be a pretty good pitcher, but it's his K/BB of 1.61 that's holding him back- not the straightness of his fastball.

Anyhow, time to stop procrastinating. Or at least to procrastinate elsewhere.

Brett Myers is not a nice person.

hazel — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:12:06 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

8 months ago: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Brett Myers delivers a pitch to Colorado Rockies batter Todd Helton in the first inning of a Major League Baseball game in Denver on Saturday, April 11, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Congratulations to d-list darling Rich Harden on his nice new $7.5M deal. At this point it's either the Mariners- a team he would fit extremely well on, with a great defense and a spacious ballpark, and one of the worst teams with which you could possibly sign a contract to rejuvenate your pitching career, the Texas Rangers. Have I mentioned I love and hate Jack Zdurencik?

Now, Brett Myers.

If you're the type of person who wants your team to avoid people like Mark McGwire or Milton Bradley because they cheated or are jerks or don't do things the right way, Brett Myers is not the guy for you. Unlike players whose transgressions involve the use of then-legal substances whose abuse was widespread and universally ignored by the now indignant media, or guys who take a truckload of crap for their teams losses while ranking among the producers of positive value for their team, Brett Myers punched his wife- something that's illegal and immoral for very specific and defensible reasons. That was in 2006, they've been in treatment since, and I probably won't say more about it, except to say that we should keep things that happen in a game in perspective.

So, huff, heavy moral lifting aside, is Brett Myers a good person for your team to sign? Trick question. The question is, how much is he worth? And, before we get to that point- is he healthy?

On May 27th of 2009, his tenth start of the season, Myers complained of hip pain- tests revealed a torn labrum in his right hip. Unlike the glenoid labrum of the shoulder, the acetabular labrum is (despite the rash of high profile tears in 2009) a pretty rarely diagnosed injury (it's thought to be more common than just the reported cases) caused by repeated twisting of the joint while bearing weight. It's not as debilitating either, thanks to the more complete bony capsule of the hip joint, and tears usually cause diffuse pain toward the front of the hip and an odd feeling that the hip is a bit loose. Labral debridement and repair is undertaken in a similar fashion to that of the shoulder, but because the main goal is the removal of damaged tissue and the reduction of swelling, rather than the restoration of range of motion and strength, this surgery is less risky than that of the shoulder. Rehabilitation is also much more ambitious- Myers was making his first rehab appearance less than three months after his injury, and it's unlikely to bother him further.

His velocity was down before the injury, and the results of his comeback weren't exactly mind-blowing. He ended the year with a 4.84 ERA.

Year	GS	IP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	FIP	xFIP	ERA	Spouses punched
Myers 2005	34	215.1	23%	7.5%	46.3%	1.30	4.06	3.36	3.72	0
Myers 2006	31	198.0	22.7%	7.5%	45.6%	1.32	4.14	3.64	3.91	1
Myers 2007	3(51 apps)	68.2	28.3%	9.2%	45.8%	1.18	3.75	3.28	4.33	0
Myers 2008	30	190.0	19.95%	7.9%	47.1%	1.37	4.52	3.87	4.55	0
Myers 2009	10	70.2	16.4%	7.5%	47.1%	2.29	6.14	4.32	4.84	0
Myers 2010 (projected)	27	171.0	woosh	zoom	47.3%	1.42	4.59	pow	4.37	0
Javier Vasquez 2008	33	208.1	22.4%	6.85%	38.2%	1.08	3.74	3.85	4.67	0

Two things: First, the Phillies really screwed up when they sent Myers to the pen. After two seasons around 3.5 WAR (which could easily have been 4 with a normal HR/FB), Myers became a decent bullpen arm for a season, but lost a significant amount of velocity (1.3 MPH from his previous average starting fastball, and with it some of his ability to overpower hitters) on his return to the rotation.

Second, Myers FIP and xFIP don't agree very well with his ERA, but for different reasons. Myers 05-06 seasons compare favorably to Javier Vasquez, and both pitchers give up too many homers and have weird FIP to ERA relationships, but Myers does this despite a good ground ball percentage and an unlucky HR/FB that is 15.5% for his career- over 1000 innings. Because FIP includes raw HR numbers, his FIP is often higher than his ERA. xFIP, on the other hand, normalizes the HR/FB rate and says that Myers has been a very good pitcher. Myers has spent a lot of time trying to make xFIP look bad, but it keeps coming back no matter how badly he treats it...

Myers should be healthy, barring something unforeseen, and he's a good bet to beat Bill James's innings projection of 171.0. If he moves to a friendlier home park, perhaps he will be able to get a handle on his HR rate. Like any other statistic, I expect his velocity to regress and his K rate to improve somewhat, and he's a pretty durable, average to above average starter. Considering the deals we've seen recently, Myers will probably get one year offers, but he's definitely worth two if the team can leverage the length into a lower AAV- say, 2/14? That's betting on him to yield just over 3 WAR, which he will beat easily if he remains above average, and it builds in some cushion in case his fastball continues to slow down (unlikely), or he injures himself (always possible).

Slack. Things being picked up. The relationship between the first two sentences.

hazel — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 03:07:16 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Rich Harden sleeps eight hours a night; I guess he's pretty normal in that respect. (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

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So, what better to follow one of the departure of one of the cleverest and most prolific saber-themed writers on the web, than an intermittent serial themed on injured free agents and named after a Kathy Griffin realty show? The question is rhetorical: This is all you get, and you're going to like it, and you're going to like liking it. Sure, Kathy Griffin and Erik Bedard may have as much in common as baseball and politics, but some people are making that work too. At least the pitcher and the comedian have both been under the knife a few times, which is less than I can say for my next project.

Unbelievable as it may be, RIch Harden has never had TJ, arthroscopic debridement, or any baseball-related surgery. Despite this fact, he has logged more time on the disabled list in his career than your average tommy-john patient, straining his UCL, rotator cuff, and obliques (among other things). He's been the quintessential insanely talented guy who if-he-only-could-stay-healthy. He's struck out more than a batter per inning in his career, broken 100 MPH with his fastball, and has a career FIP of 3.53.

Here's what Bill James (or whoever it is that writes the Bill James Annual, I'm told there are people) has to think of Harden and Bedard.

NAME	G	IP	H	HR	BB	K	W	L	ERA
Rich Harden 2008	25	148.0	96	11	61	181	10	2	2.07
Rich Harden 2009	26	141.0	122	23	67	171	9	9	4.09
Rich Harden 2010 (projected)	24	135	107	14	59	147	10	5	3.33
Erik Bedard (projected)	15	88	78	8	35	87	5	5	3.58

Unlike some of those pitchers over whom many pine but who never seem to make it out of the hot tub, Harden is actually trending in the right direction in time spent on the disabled list, down to almost a career-low 25 days in 2009. As I said before, Harden has good stuff and gets good results from it. Harden is more or less a two-pitch guy now, though he seems to mix in a changeup. His real killer pitch isn't the change, however. It's some crazy thing no one has ever seen before:

via www.fangraphs.com

Actually. That pitch looks kind of familiar. Hmm...

via www.fangraphs.com

The second graph is Mariano Rivera's cutter, a pitch that's I've heard is kind of good. It's lot faster than Harden's slider-thing, but the movement chart just struck me. I'm calling it a slider, though FG calls it a changeup. At any rate, it's a pitch that almost no one else is throwing, which is probably the reason Harden gets so many empty swings on it. Harden's only real problem is that he's been a fly ball pitcher since he cut down to two pitches, and he's been lowering his velocity while still pitching up in the zone. Wrigley Field also did him no favors, contributing to a career-high 15.1% HR/FB in 2009.

His main injuries were a strained UCL in 2007, a strained rotator cuff in 2006, tired arm in 2009, and oblique strains in 2005, 2007, and 2008. Because his arm problems are so old, I'm tempted to say they are behind him. That said, his 2007 UCL strain is the most concerning and was the most debilitating of his injuries. It's possible that his subsequent oblique problems are a result of a mechanical change undertaken to alleviate some pressure from his elbow. As I said before, he's never been under the knife, and his arm problems appear to be isolated incidents. Perhaps it's just bad conditioning or genetics.

In all, I love Rich Harden. I know he's a big injury risk, but I pray my team signs him, and I can't think of a team that couldn't profit from a Harden signing- even the Yankees who just spent a jillion dollars on their staff last year. He could dominate in the pen, but the lure of a 4+ win season out of the rotation is just too much. Imagine him in say, Seattle, with a spacious outfield and a good defense. Mmm.

For a mechanical breakdown, Kyle actually beat me to the punch by more than a year.

DF, your writing has been really entertaining and it seems like you've really grown into your analysis style. Good luck in the future, and I'll see you around.

Reactionary idiot writes something reactionary.

hazel — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:34:25 -0000

Reactionary idiot writes something reactionary.

I expect DF to prepare a full breakdown.

Why Holliday is better than Bay.

hazel — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:56:07 -0000

Why Holliday is better than Bay.

And why we should be interested in signing neither of them.

Damaged Goods: My life on the D-List

hazel — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 18:12:10 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Erik Bedard strains his hip flexor while executing a momentary pensive reflection. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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With my Cardinals out of the playoffs, I'm afraid I can't muster the will to write anything about the remaining basta...er...teams in the old Fall Classic. Instead, I'm going to begin writing about the upcoming winter and free agency. There are a few big names that will likely hit the market, including Matt Holliday, John Lackey, and Vladimir Guerrero. In all likelihood, these players will get their money from a small set of large market teams- the more intriguing aspect of free agency is the deal-making that leads to contracts with real value.

In 2009, Russell Branyan signed a $1.4M, 1-year contract on the heels of a decent season where he made the league minimum to man a platoon for Milwaukee. He followed that up with an excellent 2.8 WAR year in which he basically did the same thing he always does: Hit for a ton of power and flail with various levels of ineptitude at breaking pitches, providing a very good deal for his employers. These sorts of contracts happen every offseason, but who is the next Russell Branyan?

How the hell should I know?

As a medically-inclined person, the thing that intrigues me about this upcoming free-agent class is the sheer volume of damaged goods. There are the usual set of pitchers-with-reoccurring-arm-problems damaged goods. There are the veterans-who-may-or-may-not-be-done damaged goods. There are the headcases.

I'm going to concentrate on a handful of starting pitchers with this analysis, because these players seem to get the most headlines. I will not talk about Mark Prior, who in my world accepted reality a few years back and stopped stealing money from the Padres. First in this series, Erik Bedard.

After a quick ascent through the minors on the strength of incendiary stuff, Bedard's first prolonged D-list engagement was for Tommy John in 2002-03. After his 18-month recovery, he was reinserted into the Orioles pitching staff in 2004, where he became a rotation staple and within a few years had ascended to ace-dom. His control progressively improved over his tenure, and he posted back-to-back seasons over 5 WAR in 2006-07. After the 2007 season, Bill Bavasi, whose Mariners had posted an extremely lucky 88 win season (beating their pythag by 9 wins), mistook this as blood in the division water and got mugged by Andy MacPhail for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butle, and Kameron Mickolio. Up to this point, Bedard had never topped 200 innings thanks to hip and oblique injuries.

If we had some idea of the story up to this point, we know the rest by heart. The Mariners crashed and burned when Jose Vidro shockingly failed to live up to his 1.2 WAR potential. They started Yuniesky Betacourt way too many times, and Bedard's 5 WAR per season streak came to an abrupt end. Bedard's 2008 was injury-pocked with seperate incidents of hip and arm trouble, and his season ended inauspiciously: What was first reported as a torn labrum actually was not. Obliquely described as a "cyst removal with minor labral debridement", this procedure primarily entailed the removal of damaged tissue from wear and tear on and around Bedard's glenoid labrum, and his long recovery period revealed the seriousness of the operation. After some consideration, the Mariners did tender Bedard and avoided arbiration for $7.75M. This gamble failed to become a jackpot, but Bedard's considerable skill showed in the nearly league-average value the Mariners received from only 80 innings. Again, Bedard battled injuries, skipped starts, missed most of June and was shut down in late July. Under the knife for the second time in a year, the damage resembled the findings of the previous surgery- a torn labrum and inflamed bursa (an incidental finding). From the sound of it, this was probably a posterior labral tear, or possibly some kind of partial-thickness SLAP tear (of which there are ten types).

Before I go into Bedard's prognosis, I'm going to talk about him as a pitcher. As with any pitcher, there's a substantial amount of confusion about what Bedard throws or used to throw. Primarily he's a fastball/curveball pitcher, reputed by various sources to throw a changeup, maybe a slider, and some other junk. The data doesn't really support that, showing only two speeds.

via www.fangraphs.com

Definite fastball, definite curve, along with what looks like cluster of sinkers on the top left (or it could be the opposite- a 4-seamer on the left and a cutter on the right). His stuff is quite good, and he has the ability to come off of the DL and produce excellent results with what appears to be little fine-tuning in a similar fashion to Rich Harden and Chris Carpenter. This is good news for anyone planning to offer him a contract in the coming offseason, but the bad isn't exactly news-worthy:

Erik Bedard can't stay healthy. After what appeared to be a minor core injury early in 2008, Bedard has been dogged by persistent issues in his hip and shoulder for two seasons. Because of the recurring labrum issues that appeared to be absent or less serious prior to 2008, it's possible that Bedard changed his mechanics to compensate for his ailing hip and oblique, increasing the load on his shoulder. If he continues to try to pitch this way, he's doomed to a Prior-esque free fall during which he will probably take gambling money from a handful of teams, often find himself on the reels of MLBTR and Buster Olney's blog as a bounce-back candidate, and will eventually retire back to French-Canada where he will probably either open a restaurant or become some sort of broadcasting personality.

On the other hand, if he's able to heal completely and adjust mechanically to his physical limitations, he's still an excellent pitcher. He's longer odds to come back to form than, say, Brett Myers, but he's also a better player. Without complete information of the exact injury and surgery, it's tough to say whether Bedard is a good or bad bet in the future, but even a good recovery from this sort of surgery will only give Bedard three quarters or half a season to work with. If he makes it back, he's likely to produce the same way he has in appearances after injuries, so he's probably worth a $4M gamble with a shot at 1.5-2 WAR production, the 2009 John Smoltz contract.

Ichiro: Possibly Human

hazel — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 01:01:15 -0000

The superhumanly mild-mannered Ichiro earned his only career ejection today, arguing balls and strikes.

via img.imgcake.com

Oh well.

Search resulting in VEB recommendation.

hazel — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 06:55:26 -0000

Search resulting in VEB recommendation.

Some crap about John Smoltz.

hazel — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 00:54:59 -0000

Some crap about John Smoltz.

n' stuff.

Prognosis: John Smoltz

hazel — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:59:28 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

This guy used to be John Smoltz. This just in- he still is.(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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With few exceptions, there are two reasons that most professional athletes hang up the spikes and retire: Declining skills and injury. In June of 2008, John Smoltz, then 41 years old, went under the knife and it appeared likely that one of these outcomes had found him in the same way as it had many others. The surgery was performed by Dr. James Andrews, who found damage to the joint capsule and the glenoid labrum. The torn labrum was famously (and somewhat hyperbolically) described by WIll Carroll as such a debilitating injury that, "if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed."

Smoltz beat the odds, and rather than a SLAP or other full-thickness labrum tear, his labrum was only frayed. The surgery was performed arthroscopically, using a scope and tools inserted through small incisions and guided by a video monitor. Dr. Andrews trimmed away damaged connective tissue in order improve the healing potential of the healthy tissue and reduce the painful inflammation Smoltz had been experiencing. His season was over, and his offseason would be dedicated to rest and rehabilitation. The Braves offered him $2M, but he declined and accepted a deal from the Red Sox worth $5.5M plus incentives. This was a gamble with long odds considering Smoltz's age, but with his reputation as indifferent to pitching through pain it was a better bet than Mark Prior or, fatefully, Paul Byrd.

His recovery progressed over the offseason and well into 2009, and his first start for the Sox was on June 25 against the Washington Nationals. He was less than sharp.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

He took the loss, giving up 5 ER in 5.0 IP, but he and his manager were willing to appreciate the positive. He had struck out five, allowed no home runs, and walked only one. He had thrown over 90 pitches with no discomfort.

For several more starts these mediocre results persisted, however, and after a brutal loss to the Yankees on August 6th, his ERA stood at 8.33. To some, it appeared that declining skills had caught up with Smoltz and that his career was once again in jeopardy. He was designated for assignment, but several writers puzzled at the move, considering his defensible peripheral stats (33/9 K/BB, 4.92 FIP), and the fact that the heir to his rotation spot was Paul Byrd. On the other hand, the incentives in his contract were earning him $35,000 per day, and a half-million dollar bonus was due to kick in on Oct. 4. The Cardinals courted Smoltz eagerly, and fifteen days after his start against the Yankees, he shut the Padres offense down. Five days later, he was slated for a rematch with the Nationals.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

His command appeared to be considerably sharper. Since that start, his location appears to be the main factor in the dramatic reduction in HR/9, and his K/BB rate remains above-average.

So what about that shoulder? He skipped a start on September 15th with shoulder tendinitis, and his season innings total will just break 100 between the majors and minors in 2009. It's utterly remarkable that Smoltz has even come back to pitch this well, but its obvious that his skills are still intact and he is an above average pitcher in a league where Jeff Suppan is earning $12.5 million dollars per year. It's almost a certainty that Smoltz will seek a new contract in the offseason, and he's only a year and change removed from a 2007 season in which he threw over 200 innings and was a Cy-Young candidate. Only around 50% of pitchers return to the same or higher levels of competition after debridement of similar injuries, and a 42-year-old seems an unlikely candidate to beat the odds (again). Next year, he's probably going to challenge this season's innings-total with a shot at 150 IP, and he could be worth more than $10-15M (2-3 WAR) in that time, but any team would be insane to pay in advance on such odds. His deal for next season will probably look similar to this one, with bonuses based on IP totals rather than active days on the roster.