From the FanPosts...

Frustrated with the lack of offensive production this year, but curious about how we stacked up against other "Name" programs that aren't meeting expectations this year, I went to ESPN.com's stats page (here) and looked over some of the "below expectations" teams around the country and how we stacked up against them statistically. What I found was interesting. A lot of struggling teams are about where we are statistically. The most shocking team was UCLA, where you have two big time coaches leading probably the worst offense in the country among big time teams. UCLA is stacked with athletes, plays in the Rose Bowl half the year, is in the Pac-10, and in one of the world's major television markets; yet, they suck, just like us. Now, I realize it isn't a sign of greatness to go comparing your struggling team's stats to other struggling teams, and I hope this is just a one-year hiccup to the Bronco Mendenhall National Championship Project. But in a season like this, you go fishing for whatever brings your aching heart a little hope and peace. I looked at a lot of teams, but here are a few samples of relatively similar teams struggling to meet fans' expectations just like BYU is this year and the stats are strangely similar:

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At halftime the score was 24-3, and BYU was reeling. So, I rewatched the game this morning and took notes on every offensive play. Here's a breakdown of every offensive play and some things I saw:

1st Quarter - Score: 0-0 (1st possession)

Plays and results

• Run DiLuigi middle right for 5 yards (1st and 10 on BYU 31)
• Pass to McKay right sideline for 7 yards (2nd and 5 on BYU 36) 1ST DOWN
• Run DiLuigi middle for 12 yards (1st and 10 on BYU 43)  1ST DOWN
• Pass to Quezada right flat for 4 yards (1st and 10 on USU 45)
• Run Quezada right side for 3 yards (2nd and 6 on USU 41)
• Run DiLuigi middle delayed reverse handoff for 0 yards (3rd and 3 on USU 38) PUNT

So, this first series drove from our 31 about 31 total yards to the USU 38. The play selection was 4 runs and two passes and a nice mix of Quezada and DiLuigi. No attempts to go downfield with the ball - the two passes for both under 7 yards. I was frustrated by the delayed handoff on 3rd down which required Jake to spin around and was slow progressing. DiLuigi danced a little too much on the play after getting through a big hole in the line and approaching the linebackers. The traditional run game was working, and I thought it was weird to throw in a new play on a critical down on the first drive of the game.

1st Quarter - Score: 0-0 (2nd possession)

 Plays and result

• Pass to DiLuigi 5 yards in left flat DROPPED for 0 yards (1st and 10 on BYU 6)
• Run DiLuigi left side for 6 yards (2nd and 10 on BYU 6)
• Pass to DiLuigi right side for 3 yards (3rd and 4 on BYU 12) PUNT

I thought this series was critical. The offense had driven down the field, and then the defense came out with a stop. This was a critical juncture in the game for a young team with a bruised pysche. 3 and out. All 3 plays were to DiLuigi. This was frustrating to me. I was especially frustrated that on a 3rd and short (and this happened several times in the game), we didn't get the receivers past the first down marker. Stopped one yard short several times. That doesn't make any sense to me. So, at this point in the game, we have 5 runs and 4 passes - pretty good balance. However, against a banged up WAC defense, we haven't even attempted a pass more than 7 yards after our first two offensive possessions. Interesting. On the plus side, BYU is running the ball with solid success other than that one quirky new play on the first series. First dropped pass of the half game on this series. After the punt, BYU fell apart defensively.

1st Quarter - Score: 0-7 (3rd possession)

Plays and result

• Pass to Mendenhall right flat 2 yards play action pass (1st and 10 on BYU 22)
• Pass to Hoffman left seam for 22 yards DROPPED for 0 yards (2nd and 8 on BYU 24)
• Pass to DiLuigi screen for 8 yards (3rd and 8 on BYU 24) 1ST DOWN
• Run Quezada same new delayed handoff for 1 yard (1st and 10 on BYU 32) PENALTY 15 yards 1ST DOWN
• Pass to Hoffman screen left side - almost INT for pick 6 (1sst and 10 on BYU 48)
• Pass to Hoffman left flat for 5 yards (2nd and 10 on BYU 48)
• Pass to McKay intercepted 5 yards deep (3rd and 5 on USU 47) INTERCEPTION

The dropped pass by Hoffman was crushing. Its one of those passes that just slashes the secondary and makes them start thinking about the downfield ball. It seemed like Pitta would make these types of catches last year and loosen up the defense. I thought the 2 screen passes in 3 plays was strange and the second one should have been a pick six by the linebacker. We inexplicably abandoned the run on this possession. We went almost total pass, and how did Gary Anderson adjust to that? One almost interception and the series ends in a pick.

1st/2nd Quarter - Score 0-10 (4th possession)

Plays and result

• Run Quezada middle for 1 yard (1st and 10 on BYU 26)
• Run Quezada middle for 6 yards (2nd and 9 on BYU 27)
• Run Quezada middle for 6 yards (3rd and 3 on BYU 33) 1ST DOWN
• Run Quezada middle for 3 yards (1st and 10 on BYU 39)
• Pass to Holt for 2 yards play action pass (2nd and 7 on BYU 42)
• Pass to McKay middle for 10 yards (3rd and 5 on BYU 44) 1ST DOWN
• Pass to Ashworth crossing pattern 2 yards deep DROP (1st and 10 on USU 46) 5 yard PENALTY on USU
• Pass to McKay flea flicker into the endzone almost INT (2nd and 5 on USU 41)
• Run DiLuigi middle for 4 yards (3rd and 5 on USU 41)
• Run DiLuigi sweep left outside for 0 yards (4th and 1 on USU 37) TURNOVER ON DOWNS

I loved this drive until the flea flicker. That's a gimmick play you throw out there on an obvious running down when the safeties might be cheating. They weren't cheating. At all. Jake never should have thrown it. Anae never should have called it. I thought the 4 runs by Quezada to start the series were a funky change after the pass-happy last series, but Quezada and the line were moving the ball. Then a nice McKay pass....the ball is moving, Jake looks calm, the team seems to be clicking, and then a trick play. I know it was 2nd and 5, but I just did not like that play at all. It disrupted a nice rhythm the team seemed to be in, and Jake doesn't have the experience to check down out of that play - he wants to chuck that rock into the endzone no matter what there.  My shoulders slumped after this drive a little....and I think the defenses did, too. I needed a captain to come hit me in the head and say, "Head up, Joe!" Jake Heaps' shoulders didn't slump, though! He came out firing the next drive.

2nd Quarter - Score: 0-17 (5th possession)

Plays and result

• Pass to Mahina right side 21 yards through air play action (AWESOME) (1st and 10 on BYU 46) 1st DOWN
• Pass to McKay for 10 yards (1st and 10 on USU 33) 1ST DOWN (and BYU is clicking again)
• Run DiLuigi right middle for 2 yards (1st and 10 on USU 23)
• Pass Hoffman 15 yards in air left side DROPPED (2nd and 8 on USU 21) 
• Pass Hoffman 10 yards left side - almost pick 6 INT, caught deflection (3rd and 8 on USU 21) 1ST DOWN
• Run Kariya middle delayed handoff for 4 yards (1st and 10 on USU 11)
• Run DiLuigi middle for 1 yard (2nd and 6 on USU 6)
• Pass to Matthews broken up in endzone (3rd and 5 on USU 6) FIELD GOAL on next down

A great kick return followed by a great drive. The past two drives have been solid and balanced. This drive had 5 passes and 3 runs. The Mahina pass was beautiful. I had Pitta flashbacks. The Hoffman 15 yard drop has to be a catch because the next play was total luck that USU didn't pick 6. Fun to watch though. I really didn't like the call to Matthews in the endzone. He's an unproven player....maybe the play got messed up somehow. I just want a guy in that position who has proven ability to position himself with a well-run route to get the ball and fight for it. He was very well covered. Didn't like the play at all. Settling for 3 here obviously ripped the heart out of the defense. They promptly gave up another easy touchdown. Two nice drives by Jake and Anae despite a huge drop and lucky missed INT and deflection catch.

2nd Quarter - Score: 3-24 (6th possession)

Play and result

• Run DiLuigi left middle for 9 yards (1st and 10 on BYU 31)
• Pass to McKay 40 yards in air broken up easily (2nd and 1 on BYU 40) 
• Pass to DiLuigi left flat overthrown (3rd and 1 on BYU 40) PUNT - END OF HALF

A quick series with very little time. The attempt to McKay was easily covered. With the safety so deep, though, I wondered if dragging a tight end under the middle or up a seem would have been wide open. Not much to say about this series, though. Very little time and playing it safe. The bad throw to DiLuigi was only the second Heaps throw (the other being the INT) that looked totally off target. Much improved throwing since last week. 

Breakdown Numbers at the Half down 24-3

• 16 runs  
• 20 passes 
• 10 total 3rd/4th down opportunities
•  Of these 10 we converted 4 times. 
• We converted those 4 times with a screen pass to DiLuigi, a run by Quezada, a pass to Mckay, and a pass to Hoffman (that should have been picked).  

So, I thought this was interesting. Balance. Variety. Different players getting involved. But there are just key moments where things aren't getting done. All 4 drops this half came on 1st or 2nd down, so maybe they weren't critical drops, but just rhythm killers. I look at these numbers, and I'm thinking....man, Heaps just kept coming. No worries. In fact, he began stretching the ball down the field in this half as he become more comfortable and found guys. I think I see why Bronco and Anae seem a little confused. I would love to see a prolonged focus on KEY MOMENT plays this week in practice. Touchdown scoring plays from the 30 yard line in (an extended Blue Zone), and 3rd down conversion plays. Drill them, drill them, drill them, drill them.

Go Cougs! Joe

I was shocked by the outcome last night. Some thoughts....

1. I saw a BYU team on the field that didn't seem to want to compete - it just lacked fire and intensity. Coming out in the second half, guys started looking a little more fired up, but I was shocked at how flat and careless much of the play was last night from BYU. BYU just didn't look physical. 

2. I thought Anae abandoned (or never planned for) any kind of run game. Some would say, "Well, they can't run the ball." But I think we can. At least more often to keep the defense honest. It seemed like after the 1st quarter, USU was able to just drop everyone back into coverage.

3. I am in a state of shock at how poorly coached the receivers seem to be. They don't fight for footballs; they don't fight off the line. Teams just come up and smack them around. Balls are being dropped all over the field. It's really, really bizarre. Even McKay looked like he didn't want to have to fight for a ball. I'd rather have McKay draw a flag for fighting for a ball than see him just give up on about 4 or 5 balls last night. 

4. The lack of "inner" leadership is evident on this team. I don't see anyone stepping up on the field and leading teammates. There was a play in the second half where Van Noy made a nice tackle - an important stop, bounced up and looked fired up and you expect to see a captain come in and slap him in the helmet or chest bump, but he bounced a couple of times, and everyone just turned and walked away, so he just stopped and walked slowly back to the defensive line for the next play. I just saw that over and over and over again. I wanted to scream at the captains to get in these youngs' heads - coach em on the field, fire them up, get crazy. They need leadership on the field. I've played on teams like this one where the youth need some kind of vocal leaders to get them fired up and positive; it just has to happen. Now.

5. Listening to the radio stations last night driving 4 hours home, I didn't agree with all of the callers questioning Mendenhall's dedication and work ethic. They said he and the coaching staff have become too soft. I don't agree with that at all. I do think they're learning on the fly how to deal with this team - a team that is baffling fans and, it looks like, coaches, too. The looks on Bronco's and Anae's faces were the same - "I can't figure this team out." I'm sure it will come. These guys are awesome coaches, but I think we've reached a point where they're going to have to start thinking outside the box with this team and take some new approaches. For instance, in his interview last night, Bronco said he was giving the entire team Saturday and Sunday off. What?! Even I'm DVRing a couple of sessions of Saturday conference to push to Sunday. I would have these guys out practicing tomorrow - even if its just coming together to get some psychological conditioning in through some kind of team activity - rally around each other; watch some film; do something unique. Not doing anything for two full days after a "I'm giving up" loss? I don't understand that. 

6. I still love what I'm seeing from Heaps. He had increasing touch on his fly route passes - that DiLuigi drop in the endzone was one of the prettiest passes I've seen in a long time. At some point, throwing over 100 passes in 2 games is going to pay off with Jake turning a corner and just driving this offense by sheer will and skill into the endzone over and over. His footwork is awesome for a kid that young - just watching him move around the pocket and avoid the rush is exciting (gotta find something!). He doesn't get rattled when guys keep dropping balls. He is progressing through his reads much more quickly, and he's spreading that ball around pretty well. He still looks rough, especially his accuracy, and he needs to find the endzone, but he looks awfully sound mechanically. 

Well, that's a much more negative tone than I usually take with the Cougars, but I just watched an almost absolute, "I don't care" or "I'm not gonna try hard" effort last night. It was strange and sad to see from a Cougar team with more talent and better coaching than what we saw out there last night. I"m excited for the season - I'm not a fan saying we need to replace coaches or give up on the season; I do, however, believe, Bronco, Anae, and Jaime have to take some new approaches to prepping and coaching this team - they're not responding to the coaching right now. We also need some captains to step up with a greater on-field presence - constantly pushing these young guys and keeping them fired up. 

Two cents (or less). Go Cougs!

I hope its okay to throw out some random thoughts here...

1. Watching Boise, Utah, and TCU play this year, I keep getting that "what if" knot in my stomach. As much as I hate Craig Thompson and his Mtn network, its a shame we won't get to watch Boise, Utah, TCU, and BYU fight each other  in the coming years for conference crowns and watch the MWC get BCS status. Water under the bridge, though.

2.  One of the exciting aspects of BYU football this year is the number of younger guys getting big-time experience. You can just feel the excitement Bronco and people around the program have for the next 3 years with Heaps poised to be a big time QB leading an experienced team. That's why, even in the midst of this 3 game skid, with so much great coaching, an awesome culture built up around the team, and powerful connections to former BYU players, you can see the Cougars "reloading" on the field in these games as guys get experience in the midst of the fire. One of the things I love about college football! 

3. It will be interesting to see how aggravating Boise's move to the Mtn will be for Boise fans, and on the flip side, how frustrating it might be for BYU's fans and our change in coverage. I live in Utah and with my DirecTV package I get EVERY BYU game this year on television. Not growing up in Utah, a friend of mine who has lived here his whole life told me this is one nice thing about the Mtn and our broadcasting package - yes the telecasts are terrible, but at least we can watch every game now (I realize cable and Dish people might not have the same). Boise is about to go from being on ESPN a total of 6 times this year - pretty good national coverage to possibly 0 times next year. With a tentative 2011 non-conference schedule of Old Miss, Utah, Toledo, and Tulsa, they're probably not going to hit ESPN more than once or twice during the year. No matter how you spin it, this affects rankings (usually by having the team ranked on the fringe of the Top 25 or in the 20s to start the season thus making them climb) and national following - if you can't watch them, you don't know them. I'm guessing Boise does not have the national alumnus base to maintain national intrigue in the program without being on ESPN so much. They might be on the verge of slipping into the darkness of Commissioner Craig's back pocket. And then there's BYU. As we venture into the unknown of independence, we will benefit from playing on ESPN, potentially, 6+ times a year. I am interested to find out if EVERY BYU game will be televised next year. I'm guessing they will not be shown live, which will be a major adjustment to fans like me who have loved being able to see every game (that's some good Jello, even if there's a lump of Todd Christensen in it). I am holding out hope that BYUTV picks up all the non-ESPN games, and that our newfound freedom to schedule puts us on other non-ESPN national networks with bigtime opponents, but that might take some time. 

4. I will be shocked if TCU stays in the MWC. ESPN reported that the Big East might be interested, and I think these rumors will abound until they make the jump. There's just too much money and players in Texas to hold TCU back, and with Gary Patterson signed long-term, they're going to grow more and more popular in that Dallas market. Unlike Boise, which is a relatively small, Idaho market team, TCU has a potential goldmine behind it for a big time conference looking for a footprint in Texas. If TCU left, it would be interesting to see if the remnants of the MWC and WAC joined. Poor Boise. Their football team is about 10 years ahead of their university's and their city's time. (An interesting aside....can you imagine Coach Petersen staying in Boise if TCU leaves the MWC? I can't.).

5. I good friend of mine who is a huge Florida State fan came up to me Sunday, put his arm around me, and told me I could come over and watch FSU's bowl game this year with him since BYU wasn't going bowling. I shot back, "At least we're not going to the Vegas Bowl!" Actually, though, if BYU can beat USU and SDSU, there is no reason on earth we aren't going bowling this year, unless Heaps gets hurt. The bottom third of the MWC is just too weak this year to say our solid defense can't get it done and win 6 or 7 games. The past three games have been against, arguably, three Top 25-caliber teams with 3 experienced, great quarterbacks, and in each of those games, you sensed that BYU was at least approaching that tipping point where if they just made a couple of more plays, the game would have been tight down the stretch and there for the taking. I see them turning that corner over the next two games. I wouldn't be surprised, either, if they surprisingly give TCU or Utah a bit of a scare in one of those games as they'll probably be overlooked. 

6. I will be stepping completely into the digital age this Friday when I find myself 4 hours from home and, coincidentally, in Logan for work meetings at Utah State University. I was one click away from buying a nice single ticket to the game at Romney Stadium when I gave in and called my brother who lives nearby to say I was joining him and his freakishly cool 6 foot x 9 foot HD screen from a Sony Projector for the game at his home. I caught a couple of Lakers games on it last year, and it is like being at the game but sitting in an easy chair. Lame, I know. I still might get to Logan and feel the pull of the stadium, though, and change my mind. We'll see. If it was a Mtn broadcast, this would not be a decision.

Hope this wasn't too random. Just trying to get some chit chat going. Sometimes its nice to have a venue to dump sports thoughts out there.

Go Cougs!

From the FanPosts...

A few thoughts after today's game...

1. I liked getting Jake 45 throws against an average secondary while in the comforts of your home stadium. A lot of missed receivers (several misses could have been TDs), but I also saw him hitting McKay and Hoffman, which was nice. Interesting that the tight ends are almost non-existent. 

2. LOTS of dropped balls by receivers. I watched this game with a big Boise State fan, and he turned to me and said, "I've never seen BYU receivers drop so many balls! Why is that?" I guess the Riley/Jake throw two different types of balls theory is out the window. I thought McKay and Hoffman made a case to be the two primary receivers, and I'm thinking I'd like to see them keyed on in more plays designed for those two - the rest of the corps just drops too many balls.

3. I liked what I saw from Quezada in his brief work. He seemed more comfortable out there - knowing where he's supposed to be.

4. ANAE WAS IN LOVE WITH THE CORNER-OF-THE-ENDZONE FADE. My Boise friend and I were joking about it, and then it got downright ridiculous in the 4th quarter. To me, that is a touch pass that is difficult to throw, and to have a freshy throwing it over and over again to unproven receivers was strange. Obviously, several trips into the Blue Zone (after our initial 10 points) with only 3 points to show were the difference in the game, but I thought all the corner fade calls (I think there were like 8 attempts - most to the left, but one to the right) were very, very odd.

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From the FanPosts...

I am probably about to overgeneralize, but here goes. I'm a Southern California transplant to Utah (the bain of all Jazz fans), but I love everything about Utah except for one thing (Utah sportswriting). It's the laziest sports writing I've come across after living in about 5 major sports markets, including Los Angeles, Phoenix, Kansas City, Salt Lake City, and Rexburg. Okay 4 major sports markets. The Utah market seems to be caught in a critique cycle where the sports writer apparently never leaves the cozy confines of his cubicle to venture out into the world to conduct interviews, watch practices, and meet the people they write about. More importantly, they don't seem to have any desire to create any unique angles by watching game film to find tendencies or give us some analysis. Today's article by Brad Rock in the Deseret News (here) was a rehash of Gordon Monson's recent articles (here and here) in the Salt Lake Tribune. I know Monson's only angle (read all of his articles the past few years and you will be hard-pressed to find a unique, enlightening article) is to stir up emotion and pull readers to his radio show where the real advertising money lives. Brad Rock, Dick Harmon, Jeff Call, all these guys, though, don't have that excuse. 

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From the FanPosts...

So, I sat down to watch the game yesterday with one wish in mind: I hoped to see Jake Heaps play the entire game, so we could see what his rhythm and growth through 3+ quarters would be like (QBs often look different from quarter to quarter or half to half as they adjust and see things differently). My wish was granted! Here's what I saw:

1. Even though there weren't any points scored in the 2nd half, I saw Jake growing more comfortable in the pocket. True, he frequently held the ball too long which resulted in sacks and hurries, but I saw him getting accustomed to reading through his progressions and at least recognizing where the ball needed to go. I thought this was an important "LIVE" experience for him. A fast Florida State defense provided a great opportunity for him to get a feel for the flow of a play at speeds he hadn't experienced before. With a fundamentally sound guy like Jake Heaps, he will build on that in the games to come. I saw a lot of his throws behind the player, too low, or too high, and it looked like he finally found the guy he wanted, recognized it was late, and tried to throw the ball where his guy would get it or nobody - thus no interceptions, but too often nobody catching the ball. But I liked what I saw, in that, he was learning to read a fast defense, on the road, in a stadium with 68,000 active fans. Jake never looks overwhelmed.

2. When Anae gives Heaps a running game, you see the BYU offense clicking like it should - this was most evident at the end of the 1st half. My wish this week? Give Heaps all the reps in practice, and Anae can build a set of running and passing plays around Heaps' strengths and let him practice them with 100% (or close to) of the reps in a full week of practice. This will be huge. It gives the whole team a full week of game practice for a specific opponent to get used to Heaps and the set of plays being run when he is actually in the game. I think this will result in a more polished BYU offense as a whole. If this happens over the next month, I see Heaps making significant strides. I love Riley Nelson's grit, but man, I also saw him throw a ball sideways yesterday that even McKay Jacobsen couldn't figure out what to do with. (Speaking of McKay, why aren't we running him through the backfield for a couple of touches with a QB handoff to the receiver or a reverse? Let's get his wheels a couple of touches in other ways until the QBs find him downfield.) 

3. I think Nevada is the perfect opportunity to build on last week. I have watched them this year (including the Cal thrashing), and while I think Nevada is going to hang 30+ on us this week, I think Heaps can move the ball and score against their defense. And being at home, I think he'll be even more comfortable. I think Anae can craft a solid, balanced game plan built around the run and pass. Let's let Jake practice these plays all week and keep it rolling against Nevada. 

There's my two cents. By the way, shout out to Dennis Pitta! First catch in the pros! 1 yard, but that's one yard more than most of us.

This excerpt came from an article about the Mountain West Conference by Stewart Mandel at Sports Illustrated, and it got me thinking.

"It's pretty clear at this point that the Mountain West has three very strong, nationally competitive programs in TCU, BYU and Utah. The one thing it's yet to showcase is depth. The perceived drop-off after those "big three" is far greater than that of any AQ conference. The league is nearing the halfway point of a four-year BCS review that measures its average number of Top 25 teams, the average annual ranking of each league's champ and average computer ranking of all eight teams. Right now it's looking pretty good in the first two departments but the third remains suspect."

The MWC has 9 teams with the Big 3 (BYU, TCU, Utah) dominating the past 5 years. The argument against the MWC getting AQ (automatic qualifier) status for our champion in a BCS bowl is that our Bottom 6 teams (Air Force, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego St, New Mexico, Wyoming) are not the same caliber of competition that you see at the middle and bottom of the six AQ conferences. The key stat used in the 4-year review that Steward Mandel mentioned is the average computer ranking of all MWC schools at the end of the season. I believe the Bottom 6 are unjustly ranked because they are unjustly counted as non-AQ schools and thus perceived as weaker.

The current computer rankings for the Bottom 6 probably only give them in-conference credit if they beat the MWC Big 3. If the MWC had AQ status, more in-conference wins would inherently be given more credit. If Florida beats Kentucky, it’s a solid SEC win. If BYU beats a stout Wyoming team, it doesn’t count as much. Until the MWC gets AQ status, a better way to measure "the perceived drop-off after those ‘big three’" that Mandel writes about is to look at the MWC Bottom 6 and their records against their low- to mid-level BCS conference counterparts. So, I decided to look at the MWC Bottom 6 and their records against the six AQ conferences (Pac-10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Big 12, and Big Ten) over the past five seasons (2005-2009). I chose the past 5 seasons because TCU didn’t join until 2005, so I wanted to look at the complete history of the MWC as presently constituted. Here is what I came up with.

1.  From 2005-2009 the MWC Bottom 6 were 12-30 against BCS schools.
2. The 12 wins included the following teams: @ Notre Dame, Washington, @Arizona St, @Iowa St, @Colorado (plus a home win vs. Colorado), @Arizona (plus a home win vs Arizona), @Missouri, @Tennessee, Virginia, @ Ole Miss. 
3. Of the 30 losses, only 23 came against low- to mid-level BCS teams (teams not in the conference title hunt).
4. AND GET THIS! Of the 30 losses, 13 came by 8 points or less! 5 of those 13 came by 3 points or less!
5. Five out of the MWC Bottom 6 have pretty solid records against the BCS schools. San Diego St is the only team without a win.  Here’s breakdown: AF 2-4 (Wins: @Notre Dame, Washington); UNLV 2-3 (Wins: @Arizona St, @Iowa St); CSU 2-6 (Wins: @Colorado, Colorado); NM 3-4 (Wins: Arizona, @Arizona, @Missouri); WY 3-5 (@Tennessee, Virgina, @Ole Miss) *An interesting side-note: if you add Wyoming’s 2004, they are 5-6 with two additional wins against Mississippi and UCLA); SDSU 0-8.
6. Now compare those records in #5 with the Bottom 6 conference records in the Pac-10 this year: USC 5-4, Cal 5-4, Washington 4-5, UCLA 3-6, ASU 2-7, WSU 0-9.

What this shows is that the MWC Bottom 6 are not as pathetic as the national media makes them out to be.  If anything, what a comparison of #5 and #6 above shows us is that the MWC needs to develop its "middle of the pack" group some. The top of the MWC and the bottom of the MWC have comparable BCS competition records. What we lack is a stronger middle group (hence the argument to expand by bringing in teams like Boise State). Other than SDSU and their 0-8 record, the 12-22 MWC Bottom 6 record is similar to their BCS lower-level counterparts against BCS competition.

The MWC Bottom 6 have a solid record over the past 5 years against BCS schools and some big wins on the road. The most telling statistic is that 13 of the 30 losses came by 8 points or less. That is huge! This tells us that even though the losses outweigh the wins, half of the losses came down to essentially one touchdown.

Out of curiosity, I also took the MWC Big 3 and broke down their records against the six AQ BCS leagues over the past 5 years. Here are the results:

The MWC Big 3 are 25-14 over the past 5 years against BCS schools.

BYU 7-8 (Wins: Oklahoma, Oregon St, @Washington, UCLA, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon)
Utah 9-4 (Wins: Louisville, Cal, @Michigan, Oregon St, Alabama, UCLA, @Louisville, Arizona, Georgia Tech)
TCU 9-2 (Wins: @Virginia, @Clemson, Stanford, @Baylor, @Stanford, @Baylor, Texas Tech, @Oklahoma, Iowa St)

In the past two years (2008-2009), the Big 3 are 12-4; over the past three years (2007-2009), the Big 3 are 18-7.

Marquee wins include the following: Utah over SEC #2 Alabama in Sugar Bowl; BYU over #3 Oklahoma in Dallas; Utah @ Michigan; TCU @ Oklahoma; TCU over Texas Tech, BYU over #18 Oregon St; TCU @ Clemson.

This tells us that the MWC Big 3 are getting it done and justifies the national media attention on the MWC. Things also get interesting when you look at the combined record of the Big 3 and the Bottom 6:

2005-2009 the MWC overall record against BCS is 32-44 (Of those 44 losses, 17 have been by 8 points or less.)
2007-2009 the MWC overall record against BCS is 26-25.
2008-2009 the MWC overall record against BCS is 17-15.

So, what does this all mean? I began by investigating the claim that the Bottom 6 in the MWC are not equal competition to their BCS mid- to low-level conference teams. Well, many mid- to low-level BCS teams have comparable in-conference records to the MWC Bottom 6 going 12-30. Given that 13 of those 30 losses were by less than 8 points, and given the fact the BCS schools pull in millions more in BCS revenue, it looks like the MWC Bottom 6 are not too far removed from their lower-level BCS counterparts.

 If the MWC were given AQ status, then it is likely that any remaining disparity between the levels of competition in the MWC and the current BCS conferences would be significantly reduced. If the MWC were given AQ status, it would bring in millions more in revenue through several sources:

1. The BCS bowl the MWC champion would play in each year.
2. Better non-conference games throughout the MWC would bring in more money for each school. Big-time teams would be more likely to schedule MWC teams who have AQ status. (Some would argue against this, but I believe AQ schools are more likely to schedule other AQ schools from the MWC because a win looks better and a loss doesn’t look as bad).
3. More TV revenue. You have to believe the TV contracts and ads would jump up for the MWC if given AQ status. If The Mtn network survives, it would likely get picked up nationally if the MWC became AQ, and it would likely improve its quality of production.
4. Better recruits would begin "staying home" within the MWC or coming in from other states because the chance to play in a BCS bowl and play on national TV each week through a hopefully improved Mtn network would be enticing. With better recruits, the quality of play in the conference will attract more booster money, more ad money, and better bowl contracts.

More revenue and more national exposure mean better recruits for the entire conference and a stronger top to bottom level of competition. I believe the perceived drop-off that Mandel and others keep bringing up is not as dramatic as we think, and by giving the MWC AQ status, the perception will likely go away rather quickly. That’s a lot to digest. And I may have just wasted 2 hours of my life researching and writing this, but what do you think?

Interesting stuff from By Ben Miller and Lindsey Luebchow. They take the BCS Top 25 and reorder them with academics as a component of the equation. Utah moved up to 6th, TCU dropped down to 11th, and BYU stayed pretty even at 13th. What shocked me most was Boise State at 4th. What's in those taters? I thought all the Broncos were illiterate. I was also shocked that Texas dropped to 25th. I guess Austin needs more tutors.

Growing up in So Cal, I didn't know anything about the BYU-Utah rivalry until the mid 90s. It's a pretty crazy thing to step into. The thing I find funny about Utah fans in general is they pretty much define themselves by this rivalry. Most that I know don't really follow their team unless it's an undefeated BCS year, then out come the red sweaters, they hop around to Utah man and mumble the words to a song they don't know, and spit venom in the direction of BYU. It's funny, but actually pretty sad. I feel sorry for most Utah fans I know because they don't have a tradition to love. All most Ute fans have to hang their hats on is last year's Sugar Bowl. Very cool. But one year of history is a sad thing to get excited about. So why do Utes hate the Cougs so much? Here's why....

Continue reading this post »

After watching a tough Wyoming team that had previously competed in all of their games this season (especially putting up a good fight with Utah and Air Force), I started cruising the Wyoming sites to see what their players had to say after going through the same thing we just went through against TCU - getting blown out at home. I found a post-game series of interview clips on the Casper Tribune site. The video is titled "UW post game reaction" and is 15 minutes long with the head coach and several players. They all kept repeating that "we just didn't execute." Which I find interesting, because this is the same line BYU keeps citing after our blowouts.

The two most interesting comments came from Marcell Gipson at the 8:55 mark and Zach Bolger at the 13:24 mark. Marcell, a cornerback, said, "I thought we was gonna win the game." He repeated that even after the first couple of touchdowns, he still thought they were going to win the game. He also said, "I felt like athletically, we was more athletic than them." This comment blew me away. He followed it with, "We just didn't execute." Zach Bolger, a wide receiver, said that BYU's defense switched up their looks and this caused some confusion. It led to pressure and this led to the QB throwing to guys that weren't really the first option. 

I believe the Wyoming players were frustrated because they had run into a superior game plan today. Jaime did a good job mixing things up and blitzing, and Anae ran a great balanced attack today with a lot of shorter passes. One of the cornerbacks in that 15 minute clip - I think it was Marcell Gipson - repeatedly said how accurate Max Hall was. He said their coverage was good, but he just put the ball in there perfect. Hats off to Max with a stellar game. Hats off to Anae for putting him in great situations.

From the FanPosts...

In his article in the Salt Lake Tribune today, Gordon Monson basically wrote that BYU's football team is faced with one of two choices. Either lower its standards (honor code) or lower its football goals (national championship). I realize Monson's articles are designed to incite reactions to get more readers for his paper to get more advertising dollars and to get more listeners to his radio show to....you got it....get more advertisting dollars. His professional existence revolves around generating advertising money. I can't remember the last time he used a unique angle, genuine insight, or an inside scoop to share with his readers or listeners. I feel sorry for him actually. Other than ad money, he's become a non-contributor to his profession and the sports world. I want to address, though, the false dichotomy he presented. It's a dichotomy buried in hopelessness and false defeat.

Continue reading this post »

Another terrific observation from heyjoe! in the FanPosts...

I was reading an excerpt from Bill Simmons book on ESPN.com. The book is titled, The Book of Basketball: The NBA According to the Sports Guy. Scroll down to the last paragraph that begins "One last Ewing thought." Simmons shares a theory one of his readers, Dave, developed with him years ago called The Ewing Theory. Basically, it's the phenomenon of a team getting better when their "star" leaves the team for whatever reason. As I was sitting in the stands on Saturday night watching the destruction on our home field at the hands of TCU, I wondered aloud to my brother sitting next to me (my literal brother, not my religious brother), what the team would be like next year with Riley Nelson.

Sometimes a player comes in to low expectations and just "has it" - they have something that just makes things happen. Brandon Doman comes to mind. Well, as I read that excerpt from Bill Simmons' book about the Ewing Theory, I had the unsettling feeling that Max Hall might be an unfortunate candidate for the Ewing Theory. This doesn't doom him to mediocrity forever (see the footnote that has Payton Manning at Tennessee as one of Dave's orginal Ewing Theory candidates). I really like Max Hall. I like his passion. I like his fire. I like his drive to be the best. But I felt a little like a Knicks fan as I read this Simmons piece. Read that excerpt. What do you think?

From the FanPosts...

Just after the Florida State game, I posted on here that we should remain optimistic. I wrote that I like our coaches, and that we should be pleased with their development. Well, after another long 3 hour drive home from that game last night, I'm rethinking. These are some general observations of the game from 16 rows up....

1. I saw frequent confusion on defense looking for signals from the sideline when TCU would break quickly and set quickly. BYU guys just weren't ready at the snap and they were getting pushed back 3-4 yards. I credit them with not giving up too many big plays, but this made it easy for TCU to methodically work down the field. Generally, I thought our defense played a pretty decent game. If the offense had put together any long scoring drives, the defense was good enough to keep us in the game. 

2. Our offense, on the other hand, was impatient. We were RUNNING THE BALL ON THEM! Yet, we didn't keep it up. Harvey was chewing up 4-5 yards per carry, but we kept trying to force long passes. If we had stuck with the run to set up the pass, then we could have moved the ball on those guys. We did it repeatedly, but Anae and Hall kept looking for the long throws. I believe it was the 2nd drive of the game when we had moved into TCU territory and we faced 2nd and 2. Instead of running Harvey, we dropped Hall back to pass and he got sacked. Stick with what is working! It's like we're so proud of our passing game that we refuse to accept the fact that we just might have to beat a team with 3-5 yard runs mixed with some short passing. It blew my mind that Anae couldn't change his game plan to match what they were giving us. To me, our offensive woes were directly tied to coaching. Anae has to learn to adjust in-game to what is working.

Continue reading this post »

Well, I'm unexpectedly going up to Provo for the game tomorrow. I had circled only the Big 3 games on my calendar because of a 3 hour drive and limited time this fall. I'm looking for 4 things under the Friday night lights against USU.

1. I want to see Max play a clean game. No INTs. I just want to be reminded that it is possible after 6 straight games.

2. No injuries! Please no injuries. 

3. The defense to play at least 2 and a half solid quarters and let the scrubs play the rest. 

4. I want to see Riley Nelson come in for at least a quarter and show his stuff. However, every time he took off scrambling I would fear for him. 

Can't wait! First cold game of the year probably. Go Cougs!

From the FanPosts...

I'll admit, it was a looooonnng drive home from the game last night. However, there is hope. I hear too many fans jumping ship. Some thoughts....

• Few of us realistically expected us to beat OK and Florida State before the season started. I really thought we would grab one of those games. We have two obviously tough games left on the schedule, but a realistic shot of running the table, and if we can do that, then our #19 ranking allows us to slowly climb (who knows where that might take us). 
• At halftime, my brother turned and said, "Well, can we get back in this?" I told him I didn't think we would because I didn't see any easy fixes. It wasn't like we were blowing coverages in the secondary like Tulsa a couple of years ago or something fixable. I said, "It just looks like Florida State is playing the perfect game, and we are unlucky enough to be on the field with them." It actually reminded me of what happened to UCLA last year in Provo. They weren't 59-0 bad. They had awesome coaches, great athletes, and although they were a weak team in a transition year, they weren't 59-0 bad. But they got caught on the field during BYU's playing a perfect game. 
• The team that beat Oklahoma in Arlington is still there. It's not like Max is down with injury or something else devastating. Harvey is getting stronger and stronger (he looked really good yesterday). Statistically, the game was an offensive draw in many areas, except for obvious turnovers and 3rd down conversion. As the game went on, I sensed that our defense was absolutely confused. They looked like they needed someone to pull them aside and say, "Okay, change this." It seemed like Bronco was saying after the game that FSU exposed weaknesses he hadn't prepared the team for. The thing I like about Bronco and Jaime is that they seem to be improving as coaches and I believe we have the athletes this year to make the necessary adjustments. I don't see another team duplicating FSU's game plan to such perfection until a possible bowl match-up. I believe Bronco and Jaime will make the necessary changes and add some wrinkles to help the defense get better. We had the athletes to hang with OK. I don't think FSU exposed some flaw that can't be fixed.

Continue reading this post »

I'm a season ticket holder at BYU. Grew up in Los Angeles, though, and I still think that 14 year run of Top 5 finishes under Bobby B is one of the all-time greatest sports runs ever. Anway, here's some of my thoughts on the game Saturday (I'll be sitting 16 rows up and can't wait!).

1. BYU has won 10 games three years in a row, and last year expectations were high, especially after destroying UCLA 59-0 early in the season. However, a young defense eventually broke down later in the season and got worked in two losses at TCU and Utah (both teams had amazing teams last year). BYU brought back most of that defense and upgraded the secondary with a number of solid JC transfers and you're seeing the results of a new experienced and quicker defense in the first two games thus far. BYU can be attacked with deep routes and a mobile, running quarterback (which I think Ponder is and that is my one worry going into this game).

2. You stop Max Hall by getting pressure on him. Ever since the TCU game last year, he has been extremely senstive to pressure. He was a mental mess in the Utah game last year. However, one thing to worry about is the fact that as the Oklahoma game went on, he seemed to get more and more stable mentally. I don't know if he turned the corner and will be settled in for the rest of the season, but FSU must get pressure on Hall to compete.

3. A lot of big teams come into Provo thinking it's going to be a backwoods small stadium and the "home" advantage will be minimal. BYU hasn't lost a home game in 3 years, and LaVell Edwards Stadium can get really loud. It sells out every game at about 65,000 fans, which is small by some standards, but the way the stadium is constructed, it gets really, really loud. I've been in the Rose Bowl to a packed house, and I honestly think an excited croud in LES is louder. The altitude can be a killer, too, especially for teams coming from sea level. FSU will need to rotate guys in and out or it will catch up with them in the second half.

4. BYU's receivers and tight ends aren't really that fast. McKay Jacobsen has some wheels, but nobody else is BCS-fast. I don't know why more teams with speed in the secondary and linebackers don't crowd our line and bump the receivers. Our entire offense is timing and crisp routes. If FSU will play physical with the receivers at the line, then they can disrupt the entire offense.

5. BYU is very, very physical. FSU will have to respond to this. Our linebackers and safeties enjoy hitting, and they are good at it. A lot of teams outside the conference aren't ready for this, thinking BYU is a bunch of soft white kids fresh off missions. They're really physical.

6. FSU's secondary looked confused in the Miami game. I immediately emailed a friend and said, "We're going to eat that secondary alive." I didn't see their second game, but that will need to be fixed. I honestly think they should just man-up and bump the BYU receivers. If they drop into zone, they're going to get run all over the field again by an offensive scheme much more advanced than Miami's was in that first game.

7. This ties back to #1. Ponder needs to work with his feet and scramble. BYU defenses have traditionally gotten frustrated (and beaten) by scrambling quaterbacks. Ponder is the key for me. If he's sharp and scrambles at timely moments in the game, he'll draw the linebackers down and give us fits. We don't have recovery speed on defense. We have to play positionally sound, and those scrambling QBs tend to disrupt our schemes and expose our lack of speed.

Anyway, this should be fun. I can't wait to have Bobby B on the sidelines! What a legend! If FSU comes ready to play a legit Top 10 team, then this could be a great, great game going either way. If they come in thinking they'll intimidate a lowly MWC foe, then they're in for a long, long evening and a possible beatdown (a la UCLA last year).

I grew up in Pac-10 country, so upon becoming a BYU fan in 1996 when I enrolled in school at the Y, it was a tough switch, mainly due to lack of TV exposure and crappy bowls. So, it was exciting for me to watch the powerful growth of the conference over the past 4-5 years with TCU, Utah, and BYU emerging as legit Top-25 teams on a consistent basis. I thought, great, here we go with a great ESPN contract (and with the added clout we can dictate our scheduling with them a little better), and we can tie into some great bowls. Instead, Craig Thompson has systematically worked our conference right into the dark backroom of college football by taking us out of ESPN and into The Mtn.

Then, this summer, as the Pac-10 upgrades it's bowl tie-ins with the Alamo, Thompson locks the MWC champ into the Las Vegas bowl through 2013 with the Pac-10 #5 team!  I'm stunned. The only reason Boise State has become the cinderella of college football non-BCS teams, is because of their seemingly weekly exposure on national television through ESPN.  Yah, the time slots suck sometimes, but I'd rather stay up late watching the Y on ESPN and see us going to great bowls than be subjected to the constraints of The Mtn, Versus, and whatever other backwoods channels Craig has stuck us with. Unless the Commish is working some backdoor deal to get the MWC an automatic bid (which I doubt), then I'm confused why BYU, Utah, and TCU are allowing this guy to destroy all of their hard work.

Finding out recently that BYU also signed away it's right to work deals to televise it's own non-conference home games blew my mind! That's one of the major reasons we struggle getting good teams into Provo! Big time teams want their fans to see their games, and seeing us tied to The Mtn, Versus, and whatever else pushes them away. I guarantee Florida State fans are going nuts if they're DirecTV customers right now. 

This excerpt from today's article in the Wall Street Journal is testament to the fact that the MWC has a growing national respect. Now we need a commissioner who can work deals in the best interest of the conference. Right now, through 2013, we're stuck in darkness...

"It's becoming increasingly difficult to rationalize why the ACC is a Bowl Championship Series conference and the Mountain West is not. The ACC's bowl record the past three years is 10-16, the Mountain West's 10-4. The ACC is 2-9 all-time in BCS bowls, the Mountain West 2-0.

The Mountain West closed last season and opened this one with upsets of top-five teams (Utah over Alabama and BYU over Oklahoma). The ACC has been overwhelmed in such match-ups.  Florida slapped Miami and Florida State around and USC hammered Virginia last season.  The trend continued Saturday, with No. 5 Alabama's victory over No. 7 Virginia Tech, in which the Crimson Tide had 343 more total yards.

And the ACC can't even claim great drawing power.  The turnstile count at last year's ACC title game in Tampa was 27,360 and there were nearly 16,000 no-shows at the subsequent Virginia Tech-Cincinnati Orange Bowl."

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> </xml><![endif]--> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]-->Nothing about Craig Thompson's moves for the MWC over the past 5 years shows me he should be the commissioner of the MWC. 

Bumped. Great insight from our friends from BYU. GO BRUINS. -N

Game Keys Nestor suggested I put some points I made in other threads into a fanpost. Like I said, I’m a BYU fan, but I try to stay balanced. Here’s my take on the game.

Keys for UCLA’s defense:

1. Your defensive line is the strength of your team and Dwayne better have a plan for those guys to break in and pressure Max Hall. If you can pressure Hall, it throws the rhythm of the offense off, and it’s all about rhythm.

2. As Tennessee found out, you have to account for the tight ends in this offense. Our offense is largely Norm Chowian with differences. Look at BYU games the past 3 years, and you’ll see tight ends playing a huge role. You need to account for Dennis Pitta and his very good backups.

3. You will probably stop the run. That’s a given. However, once it is stopped, don’t let Harvey Unga run behind the linebackers to catch balls. He’s got great hands and can plow through the smaller guys in the secondary (he’s also pretty shifty after the catch for such a big guy).

4. Craft is going to have to keep his head on straight. The BYU stadium will be sold out at around 64,000 fans, which is small compared to Rose Bowl capacity, but still a freaking loud stadium. He’s going to have to be patient and do everything Chow dials up for 4 quarters.

5. Your secondary is going to need to step up. I was waiting and waiting for Tennessee to exploit what I saw as a serious advantage, but Crompton (is that is name?) couldn’t deliver the dang ball. Max Hall won’t have that problem. He’s accurate and he knows the routes. Plus, BYUs Austin Collie is fast. A lot faster and bigger than people realize (remember what he did to your #1 corner in the Rose Bowl last year). Your secondary will really need to contain Collie and Reed and Pitta.

Keys for UCLA against BYU’s defense:

1. BYU plays a containment zone defense with wrinkles (occassional spurts of blitzes with man coverage, etc.). The secondary is built on the concepts of zone coverage and taking good angles to cover and tackle. One of my biggest concerns is that our young secondary hasn’t learned the angles of the defensive scheme (they know where to be, but tend to get caught taking bad angles), which was on full display Saturday against Washington. The key for UCLA to is to be patient. BYU doesn’t give up big plays very often, but if Craft can patiently execute Norm Chow’s game plan, they’ll move the ball up and down field.

2. Key plays. Not for lots of yardage, but just those key important plays. Craft has to deliver. You saw this with BYU against Washington. That game could have easily been a BYU route at 35-21 or 42-14, but Jake Locker found a way to convert on key 3rd downs and make the play needed to keep drives alive. UCLA made those plays in the 2nd half against Tennessee and will have to dig down deep to find that moxy to get it done. Look at BYU the past 2 years and they’ve got that moxy – it’s rare (the Rose Bowl last year) that they fail to deliver on key plays. It’s a shame by the way that the refs threw a flag on Locker for that ball toss. As soon as he threw it up (you never see guys throw the ball anymore), I thought, “Oh, crap, he’s going to get flagged!” And he did. I was bummed that it tarnished such a good game.

3. UCLA needs their offense to keep BYU on the field. The short passing game will be important. BYU corners play off the ball (wayyyy off the ball – I’m always screaming at Bronco about this but he never listens), so it will be important for UCLA receivers to make the short catches – no dropped balls, and no fumbles. If UCLA can hold the ball, BYU’s young defense will tire out and get frustrated. BYU’s game plan, though, is to wear you down mentally and force you to make those Key Plays. Locker delivered. Can Craft?

4. Run to the corners. I don’t know what speed you have at running back, but if you have any, get them to the corners and use some misdirection or reverses. BYU is full of sound defensive players, but we’re possibly the slowest defense in college football (that’s why we rely so much on zone and good angles). When speed is used wisely (and Norm Chow is wise), we can really struggle.

Well, that’s it. I live 3 hours south of Provo, but I’ll be up for the game with my season tickets. I’ve been in Salt Lake City the past couple of days for some job training and the radios are buzzing about this game. Most of what I’m hearing is that this is going to be a good, tight game. A lot of us BYU fans have been waiting for BYU’s offense to just unload on someone with a big name (kind of like Utah did to UCLA last year in Salt Lake), so sometimes you hear bold predictions about a blowout coming. But I think our defense is young and shaky enough and the UCLA defense powerful enough that this is going to be a hard-fought game.

Good luck to you Bruins. If Craft plays cool and follows Chow's game plan to the tee, this will be a battle.