Over at BTF, Chris Dial has posted  his awards for worst defensive infielders. Unshockingly, Josh Fields gets mentioned. Somewhat more surprisingly, Richar does as well. He was 2nd worst in the AL behind Wiggington at 2B.

I have to admit, Richar did look sort of rangeless to me last season. Given that he is an ex-shortstop, I sort of assumed my impression wasn't reflective of reality. Of course, all the caveats about defensive metrics apply. Richar may actually be average at 2B and there just isn't enough data to show that yet.....

Cameron's take here. And Torii Hunter is number one on the list. Cameron and mgl debate the Hunter choice on BTF.

If Cameron is right about the contract (+$100M, 6 years) I think he's obviously right overall. I also think that means Hunter won't be on the Sox.

I will say that Hunter has smacked LHP pretty well lately, and that would be a useful skill to add to the Sox lineup. If the Sox do end up signing him, I wonder if it wouldn't be better to front-load the contract...

In Mark Gonzales' Trib story about Jerry Owens:

Podsednik batted seventh in the first game, and Guillen said he likes the idea of having speed at the bottom of the order...

Darin Erstad is expected to return soon from a minor-league rehabilitation assignment at Triple-A Charlotte. Erstad, however, is another left-handed hitting outfielder. Guillen said the logjam could be alleviated somewhat if Erstad occasionally plays first base to give Paul Konerko a rest.

"If [Owens] continues to play the way he is now, it's going to be a tough situation because I'll let him play more," Guillen said.

That's right, Ozzie wants Owens, Pods, and Erstad in the same lineup. He likes Pods hitting 7th to get some speed there. He's gonna sit Konerko so that Owens, Pods, and Erstad can play. As a bonus, maybe he'll stop playing Mack and his rising trade value to get the No-Power Trio on the field.

I'm not sure this was worth a diary, but I found it amusing and that's what I'm looking for as a fan at this point.

Lichtman and Tango think that Buehrle's contract overpays him

Someone already mentioned the THT column which concludes Buehrle is overpaid.

On a more positive note, Chris Dial at BTF thinks the signing was a good one

I have to admit that I'm surprised that so many stats people have panned the deal. It makes me wonder if WAR for pitchers is really calibrated correctly. Perhaps it would be better to look at WAWSR (Wins Above White Sox Replacement) which clearly shows that replacement level players from the Sox system aren't nearly as good as replacement level players from other systems.

Anyway, for a team willing to carry a $100M payroll and one that wants to be good again rapidly, I have a hard time seeing it as bad.

I'd be interested in knowing what the people who post here think about the various analyses of the deal. And I'd also like to know why I didn't see a bunch of articles saying the Matsuzaka signing was a bad deal...

There's an interesting story in the NY Daily News about former Sox hitting coach Charley Lau
and his approach to hitting. Decent number of references to the Sox, who may retire his number.

The current Sox hitting coach is quoted in the article. If Walker is teaching Lau's swing this Sox season is not doing much to support Lau's theories. My favorite quote is from anti-Lau hitting coach Reggie Smith: "Even though Frank Thomas is successful he's not as efficient as he should be."

THT has an interesting article about the current "luck leaders" among pitchers. Contreras made 1 unlucky list (LOB%) and 1 lucky list (HR/FB). Garland made the latter list as well; interesting that 2 guys with home games in the Cell are on there. Other notes: Danks lucky with high LOB%, Buehrle & Garland lucky with low BABIP, Buehrle lucky with low line drive rate and Garland unlucky with high line drive rate.

So, Buehrle would be the luckiest Sox pitcher this season, although no Sox pitcher really stands out as very lucky or unlucky. Vazquez wasn't on any of the lists, which is interesting as well.

I'm guessing one more pessimistic post will get me banned. So, to avoid that I thought I'd ask people for the scouting reports about Sox players that I haven't seen much of (at least lately). What I'm looking for are basically gross extrapolations based on a small sample size...because at least that's something to talk about.

1. Josh Fields. How does his glove look? I saw he managed to K 3 times tonight. Is he going to hit enough to stick in majors this year and next(and get Ozzie to play him instead of Cintron)?
2. Speaking of Cintron, how does Andy Gonzalez look? Is his arm as good as advertised? I know he's drawing the ire of posters because Guillen keeps playing him and batting him high in the order. But I'm sort of hoping he's good enough to be the backup/utility infielder role next season.
3. Will Danks be heading back to minors? I think one post at Sox Machine suggested swapping Danks and Floyd, but I'd hope that Danks stays in the bigs and has a chance to learn how to get outs against major league hitting.

Bonus Question: Is Danny Richar the White Sox starting 2B in 2008? Any and all responses appreciated...

The Hardball Times has an article up in which they attempt to guess which team will end up being the worst in baseball by the time the year is done. Not to destroy the suspense, but they guess it will either be the Sox or the Reds -- whomever sells off more in a firesale. There's a real chance of the Sox grabbing the number one pick in the draft next season. That's somewhat amazing. If it happens, 90 wins to 90 (or maybe 100?) losses can't be a common occurrence.

Despite being devoted to that team from East Dakota, I always found Batgirl's blog amusing (well, almost always...the bitch sox didn't really work for me). Anyway, she's officially retiring the blog.

It seems like a lot of blogs have a lifespan of about 3 years. So, I'd like to thank Cheat for his efforts keeping SSS going. I hope it sticks around a while longer.

Maybe this doesn't deserve it's own diary, but according to the trib Ozzie apparently likes Terrero a lot

Podsednik's return could mean more playing time in center for Darin Erstad, who has been splitting his time between left and center.

Of more interest is that Podsednik's return could increase the competition between Brian Anderson and Luis Terrero for an outfield spot.

Terrero, 26, has impressed Guillen and launched a home run off Frank Francisco that easily cleared the center-field fence in the Sox's 12-8 victory over Texas.

Terrero is a lifetime .235 hitter over parts of four major-league seasons and can play all three outfield positions. He is out of options and must clear waivers if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, while Anderson has all three major-league options.

Guillen didn't envision a scenario in which Terrero and Anderson both would make the 25-man roster.

"It's my opinion if Brian doesn't make this club as a starter, he has to go to the minor leagues," Guillen said.

"Personally, this kid needs to develop and get his at-bats. He's not a platoon player yet or a backup. It's not fair for him to do that."

Anyone think Anderson has a shot to start the season with the Sox? I sure don't. Terrero is clearly the kind of player Guillen would like (some speed, good D, can't hit, laid down a bunt). And there's no way Erstad will be on the Sox bench. I was hoping for at least a platoon of BA/Erstad. But that's not happening.

I didn't realize Terrero was out of options. I think that makes him a lock for the big league club.

Neyer had an extended chat on ESPN that was heavy on AL Central talk. He essentially picked the Sox 4th, but was fairly complimentary of Sox management. He liked the Vazquez signing. Some highlights:

jon (dc): So if the white sox are not co-favorites, who do you see as the favorites in the central? Detroit repeat (or were they the wild card)? Unless Garza is Liriano and Bonser is Radke (and Silva and Ponson eat each other)?

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Ah, a fat joke. You know exactly how to tickle my fance, jon. Anyway, my co-favorites are the Tigers and Indians, with the Twins and Sox right behind. If you want to discuss these teams further, we've got all day...

Peter (Cleveland): Rob, upon examining the White Sox it seems to me that they're simply not very good. Their offense is bound to regress (especially Dye and Thome, and to some extent Konerko, Pierzynski, and Crede), and this won't be negated by whatever "improvement" they get in LF and CF. Similarly, their "top 4" pitchers PECOTA ERAs are 4.83, 4.96, 4.50, and 4.77 for B, C, V, and G respectively. This team seems more likely to win under 81 games than over 90...

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Hard to argue with you, Peter. I like Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen, which I think colors my analysis of the club's future. A fundamental question we might ask is, "Which key member of the roster is likely to play better in 2007?" And with the possible exceptions of Buehrle and Uribe, it's hard to come up with names.

Peter (Cleveland): About those Twins...can't you say something similar as to the White Sox? Who, besides Jason Kubel, will play better? Things don't look good, ESPECIALLY if Ponson, Ortiz, and Silva all begin the year in the rotation. There's no Liriano to come to this rescue this year.

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Better in 2007: Kubel, Silva, White, Bonser, Garza . . . Yes, it's a fairly short list, which is why I do have the Twins a tick behind the Tigers and Indians. I promise you, Peter, there is an underlying logic here. Usually.

Steve (Cedar Rapids): Rob, Late last year, everyone was ripping Freddy Garcia because his velocity was way down. He had to pitch a couple of shut outs at the end of the year just to get his ERA under 5.00. I would argue that his 17 wins were in spite of him, rather than because of him. Why has everyone changed their tune from Garcia being washed up, to a huge loss? Also when comparing the AL Central, I have tried to compare each team at each position. In that scenario, the Sox appear to be in pretty good shape.

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Gee, Steve, last time I checked those shutouts at the end of the year counted, too. Garcia's 4.54 ERA was roughly league average, he pitched half his games in a hitter's park, and he pitched 216 innings. That means today he's worth $14 million on the open market. The Sox will indeed miss him. Which isn't to say I don't like the deal.

Steve (Cedar Rapids): Rob, You can't tell me Charlie Haeger can't finish the year with at least a 4.54 ERA, maybe better...

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Oh, I think he can. But I don't think the White Sox agree with us. Again, I'm not saying that I would give Garcia $14 million. I'm saying that's what he would get.

Chuck (Chi): The White Sox and Javier Vazquez have agreed to a three-year, $34.5 million contract, according to Comcast Sportsnet. Good move?

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Really? Another feather in Kenny Williams' cap, if you ask me. Vazquez's wins and losses don't show it, but over the last two seasons he's been just as good as Freddy Garcia. But because of those wins and losses, he comes a few ticks cheaper. Good news for Sox fans.

So, apparently Kenny Williams announced that the Sox will not extend any current members of the starting rotation. From the Tribune:

Having inhaled their cigars and digested the developments, Williams declared his club has no plans to extend the contracts of Mark Buehrle beyond 2007 or Jon Garland, Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez beyond 2008.

In other words between now and Opening Day 2009, the Sox either will trade or lose to free agency every member of the starting rotation, including the four guys who won a World Series barely 13 months ago. Are these guys nuts?

This reminds me of Jerry Krauss and his "organizations win championships" blather. The best attendance in two decades, and now the Sox can't afford pitching?

Even worse than going all Jeff Loria on the rotation is telling everyone (the pitchers included) ahead of time that they are gone after their contract ends. It destroys leverage in any negotiation.

I think I'm going to go sleep, becuase the longer I stay up the worse this night gets...  

I heard Cowley on the radio over lunch. He had a few interesting things to say:

1. The Rowand rumor has real substance, in fact it's the only rumor involving the Sox that does so far. He doesn't expect it to happen soon, but he thinks that after the market settles the Phillies are a likely trading partner. The core of the deal would be as reported: a starting pitcher for Rowand and a young Phillies pitcher.
2. He expects the Sox to add a left-handed relief pitcher via trade.
3. He thinks it's likely the Sox will trade for a CF, although they are willing to go to Spring Training with Sweeney/Anderson/Owens in competition for the job.
4. He made it sound like Mack will not play the OF, let alone CF in 2007. They plan on him playing 3B,2B,1B.

So my take is that trading for Rowand and Madson/Floyd would be a terrible trade. I think Rowand wouldn't be much of an upgrade on Anderson and that the Sox already have young right-handed pitching as good as Madson and Floyd (I think Broadway is as a good a prospect as Floyd).

I hate the idea of trading for a LOOGY.

It sounds like Cintron or Gload might be gone -- if Mack backups infield positions and Ozuna is on the roster then one infielder has to be dropped. I wouldn't want to see Gload traded, although it might be smarter to keep Cintron given the lack of  SS depth in the organization.

KW says that, given salary escalation, it's unlikely the Sox will sign Crede to an extension:

"Everybody knows how I feel about Joe Crede. I wish I could have him on the club the next five years. But I do not anticipate any long-term deal there. I don't see that happening under the current landscape." That's too bad. If they're worried about Crede's back holding up over a 5 year-deal, it's sort of understandable. I think Fields will be the Sox 3B by 2008 at the latest. And I think that's probably too bad as well.

Other info in the article: KW dismissed a Figgins for Crede swap ("scoffed at"), and van Dyck lists Crede, Anderson, Garcia, and Buehrle as available for trade (although that's just him saying they could be...who knows if Anderson and Crede are actively being shopped).

The most worrying thing in the article is that KW sounds as if he isn't planning on any FA signings due to the inflated market. But Delucci just signed a contract that's reasonable and Wolf did (or will) as well I think. So there are guys out there that aren't asking for crazy money. That makes me think that the Sox payroll is pretty much a its ceiling as everything sits.  

[editor's note, by thewizardsofoz] Added Ken Williams quote.

So, I'm starting to get the feeling that the Sox starters don't have much trade value. The Brewers just traded Doug Davis for Johnny Estrada. Davis is at least as attractive as any of the Sox starters other than McCarthy (maybe less talented than a couple, but cheaper and left handed). In fact he's probably more attractive given his salary.

Assuming the minor leaguers are a wash, Davis brought back a single player, a good-hit no-glove catcher whom had demanded a trade. Given that, I'm thinking the market for the Sox starters is probably weak.

I've read several threads at BTF where fans of other teams have suggested that Garcia could bring back a player the caliber of Eric Byrnes, but that's it. And that if the Sox want Danks from Texas, it would take at least Garland and Anderson to get him. I was doubtful this was a good reading of the market at the time, but now I'm thinking it might be true. Any thoughts?

According to the Twins MLB site The Twins have a plan in place for Liriano to pitch in the International League playoffs this coming Saturday. I'm sure the other IL teams love that. He would be on schedule to return to the big leagues and pitch for the Twins Sept. 13th.

Sort of funny, he could end the playoff hopes of the Charlotte Knights and the Sox. That just seems mean.

Chris Dial has a new set of defensive rankings up at BTF.

Mostly, I'm posting this because Juan Uribe leads AL shortstops in Dial's list right now. I know that several people posting here want Uribe gone next year, and that Cowley reported he might be on his way out. I think that would be a big mistake. He gets paid relatively little money, and the Sox will not be able to replace his glove. I really hope they keep him.

Other notables from Dial's article:
AJ, Konerko and Dye all bad.
Pods good (!?)
Crede and Anderson good, but not as much as I would have thought.

I dislike the fact that I'm no longer the most pessimistic poster on the board. And so, just to be a little contrarian, I'll say it's not impossible for the Sox to stay in the pennant chase.

The '78 Red Sox were sort of similar to this Sox team. They got out to a good start, got to around 30 over .500 and fell apart in August to be passed by the Yankees who started the season miserably. Despite the Boston Massacre, the Red Sox managed to win their final 8 games of the season to force a one-game playoff. Here's a good summary of the AL pennant race that season.

I doubt the White Sox can come back to grab a playoff spot with exactly 1 starting pitcher. But it's not impossible. And moreover, I really don't think the Sox are a bad team. I've never seen an accomplished starting staff fall apart like this before, where no one is obviously injured. For the Sox, it really would have been better if someone had gone down and ushered McCarthy into the rotation.

In any case, I hope the Sox can somehow make a race out of it.    

I've seen this posted elsewhere in threads, but I thought it might deserve it's own diary.

Per Rotoworld:

According to the Boston Globe's Gordon Edes, the White Sox turned down Boston's offer of Coco Crisp for Mark Buehrle. Buehrle is struggling, but the White Sox are too confident he'll turn it around to give him up for a center field upgrade. We also doubt they'd trade Brandon McCarthy for Crisp. Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland or Freddy Garcia maybe, but the Red Sox probably only have limited interest in that bunch.

As usual, I'm vaguely annoyed by Rotoworld. If Crisp's defense in CF is as mediocre as is reported, then he really wouldn't be much of an upgrade on BA (Crisp is on fire lately, but has a .710 OPS for the season and a low .322 OBP). It's only 60 ABs, but Anderson looks to have outplayed Crisp in July. And Garland, IMO, shouldn't be lumped in with Vazquez and Garcia. He isn't tradeable inasmuch as he has a no-trade clause, but he's pitched pretty well for a while now.

And in Mark Gonzales' Tribune column:

Aaron [Rowand] was a great sparkplug who gave the Sox plenty of energy, but he also hit into his share of double plays, as Ozzie pointed out earlier this week. The Phillies asked for Josh Fields to get Gordon.

Sort of interesting. I'm assuming Gordon's age and cotract were the main stumbling points.

So, I was hoping to find a distraction from the Sox woes by looking over some box scores from the minors.

Unfortunately, Matt Garza and the Twin's AAA affiliate shut out the Knights. The Twin's ability to produce great pitching is amazing. Garza was picked 25th overall in 2005. I've read he's ready for the majors now and projects as an elite starting pitcher. The thing that shocked me was that Garza threw 126 pitches tonight. Seems like a lot.

The Sox took Broadway at 15 overall the same year the Twins got Garza.  Broadway pitched tonight in AA (three runs on eight hits in six innings, 6K/1BB).

I have to say that if Broadway can be traded for major league talent, the Sox should do it. His ERA is good, but his WHIP and K/IP aren't particularly good. Given the tendency of BHAM to inflate pitcher's stats, I think Broadway is probably at the peak of his value.  

Given up as roadkill early in the season, and then knocked around some in AAA, Boone Logan has come back to put together a pretty good year.

He's now closing in CHA and his line is:
IP 26.2 ERA: 3.38 H:21 SO:38 BB:9 SV:6

He's still just 21 years-old. Last night he struck out the side in the ninth on 9 pitches for a save.

Alright, the sample size is miniscule, and it's easy to say "it's just Boone Logan". But I'm trying to find things to be optimistic about here.

It looks like Logan could turn out to be a decent, cheap lefty bullpen arm. That's actually a pretty valuable commodity. And Logan's emergence into a semi-prospect can only help a thin farm system.

Relatively reputable sources say that the Cards are in negotiations with the Marlins for Dontrelle Willis. You can read about the supposed offer at Viva el Birdos: apparently it's Reyes, Rasmus, Duncan (the player, not the coach), and a somewhat marginal AA pitching prospect for Willis.

Who knows what's really going on, but I think the Sox could actually beat that package. McCarthy, Fields, Broadway, and another marginal prospect would best the StL offer on my XBox.

Dontrelle's numbers aren't great this year, but it looks like he's available. Any opinions on if the Sox should try and get him if the cost is what the rumor says?  

I know this qualifies as jumping on someone while they're down, but with Vazquez's ERA hitting 5 last night I was wondering how people now feel about the trade for him?

My opinion would be that, if I could, I would trade Vazquez for Chris Young and Luis Vizcaino right now. I probably would even throw in some minor league pitchers. The Sox would get a CF that  would be able to generate an OPS higher than BA's (Young is at .860 in AAA) and a semi-reliable bullpen arm (3.48 ERA, 1.3 WHIP).

In reality, I know AZ wouldn't want him back even pitching well, and moving Vazquez in general would be almost impossible right now. But if he gets hot again, maybe he could get moved (St. Louis or the Reds maybe).

Any opinions on what's wrong? I'm thinking one thing that might help is not allowing him to throw his curve anymore...

Poll

Which would rather have now?

54%

Javier Vazquez

18 votes

45%

Young and Vizcaino

15 votes

33 votes | Poll has closed

I know everyone here is probably tired of hearing about Ozzie, but there's an article in the Tribune where Mariano Duncan says that Guillen might be hurting the chances of other Latinos getting hired as managers and Guillen fired back saying Duncan will never be a big-league manager. This made two things very clear to me:

1. The media is not going to let go of Ozzie. They will keep asking other people about what he says, write inane articles asking psychologists to analyze him, and keep the "controversy" alive. They need to fill column and airspace, and I think it's also a power-trip for them.
2. Ozzie needs to have a thicker skin. He has to realize that someone bugged Duncan for an opinion, and published with it a sensationalistic spin ("Guillen hurts Latinos!"). He needs to stop lashing out, and just let it go. If he keeps attacking people, if he can't handle the pressure, he will eventually be fired. And that will be shame.

First, I want to to thank thewizardofoz for asking me to write a recap, since I actually had a real reason when I explained to my wife that we had no choice but to watch the Sox game tonight. If fortune had really been smiling, our cable would have gone out and we would have had to head out to a bar. But this was a great, great game to watch wherever you were.

The story for the first 6 innings was the Cardinal's rookie pitcher Anthony Reyes. My first impression of him was that the brim of his hat was way too straight. But he got steadily more impressive as the game progressed. The Sox didn't have a baserunner for the first five innings, and were no-hit for six and a third.  Reyes isn't a fireballer, but he has good control and a changegup (clocking in at around 70 MPH on the comcast gun) that was awesome. And he was willing to throw it anywhere in the count.  He was very good.

Jim Thome got the only Sox hit of the game, blasting a pretty monstrous homerun on the first pitch he saw in the seventh inning. Garcia and Jenks combined to make that hold up in the one of the best pitched games by the Sox all season. Garcia shut out the Cards for eight innings, even though I'm not sure his fastball broke 90 MPH all night. He got some great defense from Dye (a stretching catch in third that took away a triple). He also got some help in the eighth when the home-plate umpire called a sure infield hit by So Taguchi a foul ball (it looked fair to me and Joe Crede). Garcia came back to strike out Taguchi on a check-swing and leave Albert Pujols in the on-deck circle.

The ninth was interesting. Cora  was managing with Guillen suspended and made a very un-Ozzie move, I think,  by pulling Garcia in favor of Jenks. It was a good call. Jenks looked awesome. He was throwing 99 MPH heat with a good curve and got groundouts from Pujols and Rolen. He struck out Encarnacion on a 100 MPH fastball. It was impressive, and at this point I barely remember being worried about him earlier in the season.

Great game, and about time the Sox won a 1-0 game this year. With the win, they close to only a half-game behind Detroit for first place.

From BaseballProspectus hit list:

"word on the street is that Jon Garland will be the pitcher moved to make room for Brandon McCarthy. Incredibly interesting tidbit: Brian Anderson has a .201 EqA (terrible) and a 133 Rate2 (so amazing it isn't believable). That would actually put him a few runs above average as a center fielder, although there are sample size issues everywhere."

I assume they mean Garland would be moved in the offseason (trading him now would selling way low). At this point, I'd still rather see Garcia moved. Also, I can't believe Buehrle won't sign with the Cardinals after 2007. Maybe the Sox should consider trading him there for Reyes and some other stuff this offseason.

As for Anderson, I really, really wish he would hit. The difference between him and Mack with the glove is huge, and I don't want the Sox to have to trade for a CF.

Speaking of trades, Jon Sickels site has a diary about Gio Gonzalez (http://tinyurl.com/mnoy8). His minor league stats compare very favorably to Kazmir's, and several posters think he is now one of the best (maybe even the best) pitching prospects in baseball. It's scary to think how good Chris Young and Gio may be for years to come. I'm not disparaging the philosophy of trying to win a WS this year, just lamenting the fact the Sox had to trade two really really good prospects....