SB Nation User Blog: hitormiss1414

Picture of Bad Call

hitormiss1414 — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 04:20:11 -0000

For the game on Sunday, someone should find a picture of the bad call and make thousands of copies. Then pass them out for everyone to hold up during the game. Maybe that will light a fire under our ass. We need something to get us going and not be intimated by these f'n Yankees and maybe it'll allow the umps to call the game fairly. I have a feeling we are going to respond strongly for the rest of the series, just because we are sick of being intimated and falling flat against the Yankees. Go Twins!

Comparing Jason Bartlett with Brendan Harris in 2008

hitormiss1414 — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 01:28:16 -0000

Towards the end of the 2008 season, I’ve had the perception that Jason Bartlett had a better season than Brendan Harris by far. That view probably came from the Ray’s naming Bartlett their MVP for the season. After examining both players batting numbers next to each other, I am thinking differently. Surprisingly, these two infielders had essentially the same number of plate appearances which allows a great opportunity to compare the two.

	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WPA
Jason Bartlett	494	130	101	25	3	1	48	37	22	69	20	.286	.329	.361	.690	-1.38
Brendan Harris	490	115	76	29	3	7	57	49	39	98	1	.265	.327	.394	.721	-.28

According to the numbers, it looks like this portion of the Rays-Twins trade was pretty close to what was expected. A short stop with speed and average hitting in exchange for a short stop with some power – obviously not as much as we wanted, but more than Bartlett. Bartlett ended with 20 stolen bases compared to Harris’ 1, while Harris ended with 7 home runs compared to Bartlett’s 1.

What’s interesting is when you look at the numbers, Bartlett had a better average than Harris by .021 points but when you compare their OBP, it’s basically the same. When looking at slugging percentage, Harris had an advantage but not a huge one. Combing OBP and Slug together, which is a strong indicator of how good a hitter is, Harris was better. He even had a better WPA than Bartlett as well.

Another area that surprised me was Harris had more runs than Bartlett – when Bartlett was a starter while Harris ended up being more of a platoon player.

Obviously this analysis doesn’t look at defensive statistics. Bartlett had a great season at short stop defensively, which may tip the favor more towards him having a better year. But overall, their hitting was a lot closer than I was expecting. Brendan Harris isn’t all that bad, and he’s a year younger than Bartlett. Playing Harris another full year or two, especially when he’s in his prime, would be all right. Hitting 10-15 home runs in a year isn’t out of reach for him.

2009 Starting Pitching Depth (Beyond Our Current Starters)

hitormiss1414 — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 18:30:57 -0000

We all know who are starting 5 is going to be in 2009. Now what will happen if one or more goes down to injury or terrible regression? Who is ready to come in and replace them if it is needed? This post will explain what some of the options are for 2009 and what order I could see it in.

Brian Duensing

The first player I could see would be Brian Duensing. Duensing has a 3.47 ERA, 6.52 K/9, and 2.21 BB/9 in 516.1 innings pitched in his minor league career. In 2008, which was basically his 2nd year at AAA, he had a 4.28 ERA, 5 K/9, and 2.21 BB/9 in 24 games started. He didn’t perform as well as he has track record has shown in his previous years. Given his overall career numbers in the minors though, I still feel he might be the best bet to begin. He will also be 26 next year and the Twins have to give him a shot some time soon. If that spot opens in the rotation, I could see the Twins going to him first, baring if he starts out well.

Kevin Mulvey

The next person I would like to see would be Kevin Mulvey. Mulvey has a 3.36 ERA, 6.87 K/9, and 2.69 BB/9 in 321 innings pitched for his minor league career so far. In his first full year at AAA, he had a 3.77 ERA, 7.36 K9, and 2.92 BB/9 in 27 games started which is fairly in line with his career minor league numbers. He does need to get his walks down since he averaged nearly 3 free passes per 9 innings in 2008. I believe Mulvey is better than Duensing overall, but Mulvey does need some more seasoning. He also can afford it too since he is two years younger than Duensing.

Philip Humber

The next player I could see would be Philip Humber. Humber has a 4.25 ERA, 7.86 K/9, and 2.81 BB/9 in 426 innings pitched during his minor league career. In his second full year at AAA, Humber actually regressed from what he put up during his first time through in 2007. His (ERA-K/9-BB/9) in AAA during 2007 was (4.27-7.77-2.85) and in 2008 was (4.56 -7-3.23). Regressing when he’s this close to the majors is not a good thing, especially at the age of 26. Humber did get the call for the majors in September because of his hot streak at the second half the season, but he only pitched 11.2 innings which isn’t a very good sample size to analyze. But that also does mean he has some major league experience, which is important to have too. Humber needs to work on lowering his ERA and walks and be more consistent. In the end, Humber may wind up being a long relief guy. Out of the four pitchers I’m talking about in this article, I believe Humber is the worst out of them all.

Anthony Swarzak

The last player we could probably see in 2009 to start a game would be Anthony Swarzak, and that’s because he needs some more seasoning to make him a better pitcher overall. Out of the four pitchers though, Swarzak has the highest upside out of them all. He has a 3.60 ERA, 7.98 K/9, and 2.86 BB/9 in 592.2 innings pitch for his minor league career so far. His 2008 season was very interesting, which most of you know about. In New Britain he had a 5.67 ERA, 6.73 K/9, and a 3.28 BB/9 in 20 games started. For some reason the Twins promoted him, and it ended up being an incredibly smart decision. Swarzak finished 2008 with a 1.80 ERA, 5.2 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 in 7 games started at Rochester. What’s interesting is he had a worse K/9 and only a slightly better BB/9 in AAA compared to AA. Swarzak needs to work on his consistency and getting his walk ratio down. What could change everything though is if he starts out extremely hot and a pitcher is needed, he may actually be the one to come up. But if he only has a consistent year, then he could most likely be the last. What’s great is he’ll only be 23 next year.

This isn’t meant to be a perfect prediction, but more of an outline of what the options are in 2009. If one of these four comes in extremely hot at the beginning of 2009, that will probably trump them over everyone else. Boof Bonser was left off this list because I don’t know if he’ll be with the Twins next year. I hope in 2009 we won’t need any starting pitching replacements, but if we do, there are some players behind them that could possible pitch fairly well. It’s very nice to have options and depth. Also who knows, we could also end up seeing Jeff Manship, Ryan Mullins, Yohan Pino, or Jay Rainville, who all were in New Britain in 2008 at one point.

Did Denard Span Have A Better Year Than Torii Hunter?

hitormiss1414 — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 02:17:00 -0000

The evidence below proves that it may be true.

Ignoring minor league numbers, here are both players’ regular season statistics for 2008.

	Team	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	BB	SB	K	OPB	SLG	OPS	WPA
Denard Span	MIN	347	70	6	47	0.294	50	18	60	0.387	0.432	.819	1.76
Torii Hunter	LAA	551	85	21	78	0.278	50	19	108	0.344	0.466	0.81	0.58

Now below are Denard Span’s numbers adjusted to as many AB’s as Torii Hunter had in 2008.

	Team	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	BB	SB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS	WPA
Denard Span	MIN	551	111	10	75	0.294	79	29	95	0.387	0.432	0.819	2.79
Torii Hunter	LAA	551	85	21	78	0.278	50	19	108	0.344	0.466	0.81	0.58

According to these numbers right above, Span was better in all categories except home runs, RBI, and SLG %. What really sticks out to me is how much better Span was in runs, walks, and stolen bases. Hunter’s lead in RBI and SLG % aren’t even that big compared to Span either.

Span’s adjusted numbers shows that the way he was playing was very solid for a major league player. Considered by many to be a bust as a number one pick, including myself, he went from being ignored to being a legitimate player in the Twins future.

According to pay, Hunter received $16,500,000 during this season, while Span was paid about $450,000. Looking at the numbers above, I would definitely take Span over Hunter right now. In Span’s first major league season, he put up better numbers than Hunter, is about 9 years younger than him, and doesn't cost $55,000,000 million for five years.

Obviously the adjusted numbers aren’t for sure and Span could have gone on a huge slump to decrease what he had. But you can also make the argument he could have been even hotter as well.

Now I’ve always loved Hunter, and it is still incredibly tough to see him in another team’s jersey, but Span is starting to make me feel better about the situation. I’m hoping this year wasn’t just a fluke and he can continue to produce like this and be a consistent hitter for the Twins. He sure is making things look good right now.