SB Nation User Blog: hmlee

Just an Upset: Northwestern Knocks Off Stanzi and Iowa Too, 17-10

hmlee — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 21:19:56 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Wow. What a finish. I think I finally know how Iowa fans have been feeling most of this season. Northwestern has had some memorable games this season - scares against Eastern Michigan and Miami(OH), come backs against Purdue and Indiana - but even through all of those, I think today's win against formerly undefeated Iowa qualifies as the most memorable of the year.

I was asked during the live game thread if Northwestern winning out (including the Iowa victory) would make this season a success. My reply was that unless it was combined with a bowl win against a decent or good team, the answer is no. As thrilling as this victory is, it's merely one great moment in a season full of disappointments.

But we can talk about that later. For now, let's just bask in the upset glow...

Once again during a Northwestern game I saw a starting quarterback taken down by injury and replaced by an ineffective backup. Except, this time, that injury came on the other side of the ball. The biggest news from this game, aside from the final score, was the injury to Ricky Stanzi.

The injury happened in the beginning of the second quarter. Pinned down on their own 6 yard line, Stanzi took the snap in the end zone to attempt a pass. The Iowa defense, for some inexplicable reason, failed to cover Corey Wootton who rushed in from Stanzi's right side and took him down. Stanzi fumbled the ball and Marshall Thomas fell on it for Northwestern's first TD of the game.

Stanzi didn't get up.

He managed to walk off the field, which probably saved a few emergency rooms in Iowa City from having a new crop of admits. The update during the middle of the game suggested that Stanzi, who did not return, suffered some sort of ankle sprain. There was no information on how soon he would return to play, but it's not likely to be a season ending injury.

That's pretty much the only good news Iowa fans can take away from this game, as their Big 10 title hopes are now threatened and their chance at the BCS title almost certainly eliminated, barring a few losses on the parts of Florida, Texas, Alabama, and Cincinnati.

Stanzi was replaced in the game by redshirt freshman James Vandenberg, a substitution that changed the script of the game. Vandenberg showed his inexperience in a big way and the upset was on.

Read how it happened, after the jump...

Graham takes a look at the Big 10 defenses going into Week 10...

I recap the disappointing collapse against Penn State in Week 9...

We knew going into this game that Northwestern had historically performed well against Iowa, winning three of their last four contests. Even so, Iowa was a special team this year and Northwestern was, well, not. Iowa's defense was legendary and despite major injuries to their running game and inconsistency under center, they always seemed to find some fourth quarter magic to overcome deficits and get to a 9-0 record on the season. The collision of these two sets of facts led me to be completely unsure of what to expect from this game. Fortunately, it all turned out better than I ever could have hoped for.

Oh, did I mention, Northwestern is also bowl eligible now? It might only be a trip to Detroit, but at least we'll be playing football in late December / early January.

This game, like so many others, started out on a down note for the 'Cats. Northwestern came out of the gate sluggish, giving up a touchdown on a Stanzi-McNutt connection only a minute into the game. After a three and out, Iowa followed up their TD with a 39 yard field goal by Daniel Murray to take a 10-0 lead. It seemed as though the 1st quarter score would be predictive of Iowa's record at the end of the game, and I would be forced to watch a rout.

Most of Northwestern's early offensive struggles were due to the limitations of Mike Kafka. Kafka, who returned himself form an injury suffered during the Penn State game, was almost completely immobile. He was still able to complete passes at his effective clip, but the story of Northwestern's offensive line is one of inability to hold the pocket for any length of time. Without Kafka's scrambling ability, Northwestern didn't seem to be able to get much going.

After the first series of the game, Kafka was replaced by Dan Persa, he of the complete ineffectiveness against the Nittany Lions. Persa performed much better today than he did last week... Despite completing only 5 passes for 37 yards during the entirety of the game, he managed to use his legs and speed to gain several first downs for the Wildcats.

It's almost funny, in a way. Northwestern had two limited quarterbacks in this game - one who could throw but not scramble, and the other who could scramble but not throw. If only we could have fused them into one super quarterback.

Persa's legs combined with those of Scott Concannon, who had another excellent game, to generate 126 rushing yards, more between the two of them than both quarterbacks threw for combined.

The running game is one of the stories of the day. Iowa, in a change from most of the season, just could not seem to prevent Concannon from breaking off large runs. They also had trouble with the quarterback sneak, with the Northwestern offensive line pushing for yardage in several 3rd-and-short situations.

During the first half, Northwestern was helped by Iowa committing four turnovers. Two of these were interceptions (one from each QB) and two were lost fumbles. Despite these chances, Northwestern's hamstrung offense largely failed to capitalize, gaining only 14 points off all of the turnovers combined.

Northwestern's second touchdown was a nifty throw by Dan Persa to Drake Dunsmore, one of his few quality throws. That, along with a 47 yard field goal by Stefan Demos would comprise all of Northwestern's offense on the day.

But, it was enough.

Northwestern, in an almost mirror image of last week, entered the half leading 14-10. The third quarter was uneventful, a slug fast back and forth with the only play of note being a missed 46 yard field goal on a tough angle by Iowa's kicker Daniel Murray.

The fourth quarter was really where all the excitement happened - as it does in most Iowa games. The 'Cats started the quarter with Demos' aforementioned field goal to take a 17-10 lead.Iowa got the ball back but, between Brandon Wegher getting stuffed at the line on most run plays and Vandenberg overshooting his receivers, gave it right back to Northwestern after six plays.

This next drive featured perhaps the worst coaching move by Fitz I've seen all season. On 4th and 1 in their own territory, Northwestern simultaneously executed a perfect QB sneak for a first down and a timeout. The timeout wiped out the first down and forced Northwestern to punt. I'm not entirely sure what happened - it seems almost as though Fitzgerald panicked at the last minute and changed his mind, but the screw up was an incredibly bad break for the team.

Iowa managed to drive to midfield on their subsequent possession, but the game was almost ended by a Quentin Davie interception - except he couldn't hang on to the ball. Between that play and the botched fourth down conversion it felt as though the fates were aligning against Northwestern. Could they hold on? Would Iowa pull another rabbit out of their hat?

Fortunately, the answer was no. Kirk Ferentz had no more magic left. Northwestern ran down the clock to just over two minutes and Iowa, with no timeouts remaining, got the ball back for one last try. Vandenberg managed to gain a single first down before turning the ball over on downs as a result of several incomplete passes. After this, Northwestern took a knee and the victory.

Before I get into my complete impressions, a word about the officiating in the fourth quarter. There were several questionable non-calls, most for pass interference, on Iowa's last drive. I find this unfortunate, as I am always a believer in solid officiating - I'd rather not see the NCAA become the NBA, if you know what I mean. Personally, though, I don't think Iowa fans have a right to complain. Last week, Indiana was screwed out of at least two touchdowns and perhaps some pass yardage after questionable officiating. In that game, the breaks went Iowa's way, in this one they didn't. Perhaps it was referee karma.

So, what does this game all mean? Well, for Northwestern, as I mentioned above, it pretty much secures a bowl berth. It's not going to be a good bowl, and I won't really consider it much of an achievement after last year, but at the least we're not staying home in the winter.

Iowa has placed themselves behind the 8 ball for their conference championship and BCS hopes. If they manage to win out, their victory over Penn State guarantees a trip to Pasadena and a likely date with the Ducks. They can also still go to the Rose Bowl with another loss if Penn State comes back against Ohio State this afternoon. If, however, Ohio State wins out (including this afternoon) they will once again be Big 10 champions. Penn State could also secure the championship for themselves if they beat Ohio State this afternoon, AND defeat Michigan State and Indiana, AND Iowa loses to either OSU or Minnesota. Whew. Quite the muddled situation, eh?

As far as the BCS goes, Iowa is almost certainly shut out of the championship game. Their road was always difficult, given the dominance of Florida, Texas, and Alabama. Now it's almost certain that, barring everything in the rest of the season going right, they will be looking at the Rose Bowl as their best bowl option.

That's the way the situation looks right now but... you know what? I really don't care. I'm happy. This was an awesome game. I'm going to go enjoy the beautiful Chicago weather. See you next week for the Northwestern / Illinois rivalry game.

Go U! NU!

Do Not Adjust Your TV

hmlee — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:40:07 -0000

Do Not Adjust Your TV

You may have noticed that the The Rivalry, Esq. is looking a bit odd today. Don't worry, it's not you - it's us. SB Nation is implementing a new layout scheme across its blogs and the changes you see in our layout are a result of that.

Lions, and tigers, and 'Cats! Oh My: Northwestern Delays the Inevitable But Falls to Penn State, 34-13

hmlee — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 00:08:51 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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Before this game, Pat Fitzgerald said he wanted the Wildcats to go out and play 60 minutes of quality football. Well, he got about 45. Going into the half, Northwestern led Penn State 13-10. Going into the fourth quarter, Northwestern and Penn State were tied, 13-13. And then the wheels came off, as has happened so many times this year. Except this time there would be no late game magic, no 25 point come back, no last second Stefan Demos field goal for the win. This time, when the game clock ticked down its final seconds on Saturday, there was just the end. The end to a game that started out so promising, to an epic upset in the making.

And yet... beyond the situation with Mike Kafka, which I'll get to below, I'm not that disappointed. Sure, I'm disappointed on a season level - this has not been the year I thought it was going to be. But, disappointed in this game? Not so much. I rated Northwestern's chances of stealing this one coming into this week at 10-15%. We had the momentum coming off the epic Indiana comeback, but Penn State had been rolling lately and their defense had overtaken Iowa in the stats. A win against them would be huge, but it would not come lightly, trap game or no. I knew this, and so seeing the result, I am only somewhat let down. My only sadness comes from what could have been.

Indeed... what could have been. This game started out well enough, with Northwestern holding their own against a #12 ranked Nittany Lions team. This time, the 'Cats didn't find themselves looking at a three score deficit before they got on the board. They held the Nittany Lions to a field goal on their first drive, and then answered with one of their own on a 34 yarder by Demos. The receivers were focused and sure handed while Kafka seemed to mystify the PSU defense with quick screen and slant passes. The game would remain tied at 3 through the end of the first quarter, and the 'Cats kept up the tit-for-tat in the next one. Kafka sprinted into the end zone on a 14 yard scramble for a touchdown to open it, and all of a sudden the Wildcats were up 10-3.

Then the middle of the second quarter came.

And Kafka got hurt.

The defense tried valiantly to keep Northwestern in this game, but in the next two and a half quarters with Dan Persa, the backup QB under center, the 'Cats would only pull out three more points on another Demos field goal. That field goal would have Northwestern up by 3 going into the half, but the offense remained stalled.

Kafka was on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, and the Wildcats just weren't the same...

Graham makes an argument that Minnesota should bench starting QB Adam Weber...

My take on the insanity that was Northwestern's comeback against Indiana in week 8...

Penn State answered the Northwestern field goal shortly into the third quarter, tying the score at 13. The NU defense led by a surprisingly lively Corey Wootton kept things close, but the time of possession difference wore them out. The NU defense was on the field for 11:02 in the third, compared to only 3:58 for the offense. They just got ground down.

Starting in the fourth quarter, the next three PSU possessions would result in touchdowns. Northwestern and Dan Persa simply had no answer. Persa, though he tried, just couldn't complete the type of screens and slants that Kafka and his laser arm had connected on earlier in the game. Northwestern hasn't really had a run game this season, so the loss of the passing game basically sealed things for the 'Cats. I give immense credit to receivers Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen - both made plays and took hits in an effort to keep the offense going, but it was too little, too late.

The question then, of course, is whether having Mike Kafka in the game would have changed the outcome. I can't answer that question with any certainty. Kafka was having success against PSU when he was playing, and I do think he would have connected on some of the throws and perhaps scrambled away from some of the sacks that plagued Persa. But... ultimately, it wasn't Persa who allowed three touchdowns in three subsequent possessions. The defense played well for 45 minutes but I don't know that having Kafka under center would have meant that the D would have lasted for the whole 60. Even if Kafka's presence accounted for two more touchdowns (which is being optimistic), if the defense didn't also play better, Northwestern still would have lost by seven.

So where does this leave Northwestern? The 'Cats have three games left on the season. They need one win to be bowl eligible and seal a date in Detroit. Their next three opponents are Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Only one of those games looks to be ripe for a win, but it's a road game in Champaign and Illinois just steamrolled Michigan. If Kafka is healthy and returns to form, the 'Cats should be able to take that game or steal one from Iowa or Wisconsin. If Kafka isn't healthy....

Well...

Let's just not think about that, shall we? Until next week...

GO U! NU!

A Little Rest Does a Badger Good: Wisconsin Shuts-out Purdue, 37-0

hmlee — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 21:38:24 -0000

More photos » by Andy Manis - AP

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Well now that's more like it. I do enjoy starting my Saturday off with a completely dominating victory by the Wisconsin Badgers. Granted, it was against the Purdue Boilermakers - not exactly the class of the Big 10 this season - but after the way the Badgers have been playing the last few weeks, it was quite satisfying.

It seems as though Wisconsin's bye week came at exactly the right time this year. Like my Badgers, I also took some rest and relaxation time, returning to the dairy state to visit family and escape the grind of the midpoint of the law school semester. It seems as though this time in the college football season has much in common with my 1L year. The Badgers and I both came out of the gate strong - staying on top of non-con foes and contracts readings. But both of us stumbled a bit through the meat of the conference schedule and midterms, staggering into this past week just hoping for a break and a time to catch our breaths. While Bucky rested up from concussions and contusions I too had an injury break - seriously, that carpal tunnel is a bitch.

Of course, it did help the newly rejuvenated Badgers that the Purdue team that showed up at Camp Randall looked more like the Boilermakers of the beginning of the season than the team that stunned Ohio State and rolled over Illinois. Purdue's offense once again lost the turnover battle, losing two fumbles and tossing one INT to Wisconsin's single garbage time interception. This alone would seem to be a significant hurdle for Purdue to climb, but unfortunately for them, it was also accompanied by a rash of drops among their receiving core. I don't have a total of the number of balls that bounced off their buttery fingers, but it seemed that any time Purdue got a bit offensive momentum, they were undone by a receiver forced incompletion. This had the effect of killing most of their drives before they even got started. Some of these incompletes were due to the aggressive and solid play of the Wisconsin D, who showed great coverage, especially in the secondary. The efforts of the secondary kept Purdue from making big plays - their longest pass play went for only 16 yards, and the linebacker Culmer St. Jean seemed to be tackling guys all over the field.

In fact, with one notable exception, almost everything about this game was positive, and I can't recall a recent conference game that has been quite as fun to watch as this one.

More about that exception as well as my takes on the great, the good, and the mediocre after the jump...

Graham takes a look at the defenses in the Big 10...

My week 7 recap of the Iowa travesty...

My Bucky the Badger pumpkin wishes you a happy Halloween!

As I said above, there really was not much, if anything, bad about the play of Wisconsin this game. So, instead of going with the tried and true (and some might say cliche) break down of the good, the bad, and the ugly, I'll be bringing you an edition of the great, the good, and the medicore.

The Great:

John Clay: Big, bad John Clay is baaack, and I am quite happy to see him return from the bye in apparently good health. Clay took a huge hit in the Iowa game two weeks ago and completely lost effectiveness during that game's second half. He suffered some sort of leg injury and I feared that he might have been out for a few games or done for the season. Instead, Clay rolled over Purdue's run defense for a total of 123 yards and 3 TDs. He, along with Philip Welch, was the entirety of the Badger offense today. If Clay keeps this rate of production up against Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern, and Hawaii he should easily surpass 1,000 yards and may make it into the upper teens in TDs. Those would be very nice stats from a guy who wasn't even the sole running back going into the season.

The defense: The young Badger defense, which had been plagued by inconsistency of late, giving up twice as many second half points as first half points during their last two games, stepped up today and showed why they should be feared in the conference for the next several years. I touched on the play of the secondary above, but really, the entirety of the defense played well. They had a consistent pass rush on Joey Elliot, and managed to contain Ralph Bolden to only 37 yards on 10 carries. And what's more, they managed to not fold in the second half as they have done several times before this season, preserving the shutout. They started strong and finished strong, which is what I want to see out of them on a weekly basis.

The Good:

Philip Welch: Welch has been struggling lately so it was good to see him post another perfect game. Welch made three field goals, for 22, 32, and 42 yards as well as four extra points. Welch was sporting spiffy new black socks today and I say, if a wardrobe change is what it takes for our kicker to be consistent, then lets just have him wear whatever color socks he wants. Red socks? Black socks? Those rainbow socks with the cute little toe thingies? Fine by me! Wisconsin is a very good team when it comes to scoring in the red zone, but for the times when the offense fails to punch it in, we need our kicker to be able to make the chip shots and ensure points on the board. Hopefully Welch will continue playing like he did today for the rest of the season.

Lance Kendricks: Kendricks had a solid game at tight end today, even despite the lack of a Badgers passing game. Kendricks was brought into the run game and managed 91 yards on 4 carries, with his longest being a brusing 51 yarder. Wisconsin has always had a great tight end team between Garrett Graham and Kendricks, but it was heartening to see him make an impact even when Tolzien was pretty much a non-entity.

Special teams: I have a bone to pick with part of the special teams below, but I would like to mention the blocked punt by David Gilbert which was returned into the end zone for a touch down by Aaron Henry. This turned a 17-0 advantage into a 24-0 pounding going into the half. It's good to see all units of the team keep up the pressure and grind their opponents down instead of letting them make adjustments and get back into the game.

The Mediocre:

Scott Tolzien: I have been one of the bigger Scott Tolzien bosoters in the blog world, but his play the last few weeks has been on the bad side of medicore. Coming into this game he had five interceptions and no TD passes in the last two weeks, an alarming change from his 9-3 TD-INT ratio through the first five games of the season. Well, he didn't throw any interceptions today... but that was largely because the coaching staff decided to take the ball out of his hands. He threw only 13 times with six completions for 87 yards, no TDs, and no INTs. On the one hand, I feel a bit bad about quibbling with this decision when it seems to have led to the shutout win. On the other hand, I wonder if Tolzien's confidence hadn't taken a hit in the last two games, and it might have been nice for him to throw a TD or at least triple digit yardage coming off the bye. Hopefully Tolzien can regain his confidence and performance levels from the start of the season and help carry the Badgers to a bowl victory this year.

Special teams punt returning: David Gilreath, I'm looking at you. Gilreath had one or two good punt returns when the Badgers were already up by 24, but he made a completely inexcusable decision on the first punt return of the day, when Wisconsin was only up by 7. Gilreath caught the ball at the 5 and then somehow managed to run sideways and backwards for a loss of 2 to pin Wisconsin on the 3 yard line. This has been going on all season and it has got to stop. I don't know whether we need a different return man or an actual special teams coach, but something needs to change. Wisconsin cannot keep getting hamstrung by its own return game if it expects to contend at the top of the Big 10 or in bowl games.

Those two issues aside, Bucky played a solid game today and looked like the 5-0 team from the start of the season instead of the 0-2 team from the last few weeks. I'll conclude this wrap-up with wishes for an awesome and safe halloween for everyone up in Madison (I wish I was there!) See you next week and...

On to the Hoosiers, On to 7-2, and ON WISCONSIN!!!

Hey Hoosiers, How's That Queso Smell? Northwestern Claws Out a Win Against Indiana, 29-28

hmlee — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 22:13:51 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

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Well, if anything confirmed that Indiana is going to be enjoying the Queso Bowl during December, today was probably it. Leading 28-3 in the 2nd quarter, the Indiana Hoosiers somehow managed to let the Northwestern Wildcats wake up and steal this game right out from under them. Indiana currently sits at four wins and with games against Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue finishing out their schedule, six wins and bowl eligibility is going to be very hard to come by.

Northwestern, of course, isn't in much better shape. They need one more win from the group of Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Given Illinois' horrid play this season, and the stellar play of those other three teams, it's easy to say why today's victory against Indiana was so crucial for Northwestern. If Northwestern can beat Illinois (or, shockingly, upset one of the stronger teams) they can get their six wins and won't be staying home this December.

Of course, a trip to Detroit isn't exactly what I had in mind at the start of this season. 2009 has been quite the dismal and disappointing year for this Wildcat fan. I've been taking a break from my Northwestern writing recently, having focused on Wisconsin and the general Big 10. This was partly due to the fact that I was actually in the Dairy State for the past few Saturdays (and, as such, couldn't see the Wildcats), but the mediocre play of Northwestern also had something to do with it. It gets hard writing about losses, after all.

Indeed, during the first quarter and a half of this game I was attempting to come up with a way to write about another heartbreaking loss at Ryan Field without sounding completely fatalistic. But, thank goodness, that will not be necessary as today I get to write about a vintage Cardiac Cats come from behind win - and I am happy!

This game really did not start out well for Northwestern. A few days ago, we linked to an article on ESPN about the team that got away from the Big 10 - the former founding member - The University of Chicago. Today, it really looked as though my undergrad alma mater Maroons had decided to come up north and take the field in place of the Wildcats. For those who don't know, The University of Chicago is a Division III team.

Yeah, that's how bad it was...

The Rivalry has been featured on CBS Sports! Check out our CBS articles on the Big 10 conference and OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor...

Graham takes a look at the top 11 plays of this season in the Big 10...

A quick summation of the hell that was the start of this game, and my thoughts:

- First play from scrimmage, Indiana has the ball:

Darius Willus rush for 70 yards for a touchdown.

Uh-oh... well... okay, I mean, maybe the Wildcats just had a long night.

- 7-0 Indiana, Northwestern's first series of the day:

Mike Kafka pass incomplete, Kafka pass complete to Arby Fields, Kafka pass incomplete, Stefan Demos punt.

So maybe both the offense AND defense had late nights. It's okay. Just a 3 and out. No need to worry yet...

- Halfway through the 1st quarter:

Ray Fisher punt return for 35 yards to Northwestern 28, rush for no gain, Ben Chappell complete pass to Troy Wagner for 13 yards, Northwestern 5 yard penalty, Mitchell Evans 3 yard rush, Tandon Doss 5 yard rush, Mitchell Evans 1 yard rush, Ben Chappell rush for 1 yard for a touchdown.

Okay, can somebody, anybody, PLEASE MAKE A TACKLE? IS IT THAT HARD? REALLY? HOW MUCH TEQUILA DID YOU GUYS DRINK LAST NIGHT?

- Start of 2nd Quarter, 14-0 Indiana, Indiana at the NU 37:

Chappell pass complete to Tandon Doss for 6 yards, Chappell pass complete to Damarlo Belcher for 19 yards, Chappell pass complete to Wagner for 10 yards, Darius Willis rush for 3 yards for a touchdown.

Sigh... I just... yeah... sigh...

- Demos kicks a 28 yard field goal, 21-3 Indiana...:

Stefan Demos kickoff for 63 yards returned by Ray Fisher 93 yards for a touchdown

Oh good god. Why did I get up today? Why?

At this point, Indiana was up 28-3 and it was looking like it might be a good day to go do some laundry during the 2nd half. I held on, however, partly because of irrational hope and partly because I really did not want to start working on my Crim Law outline.

Somehow, though, in the end of the second quarter, Kafka and the combined forces of Andrew Brewer, Zeke Markshausen, Sidney Stewart, and Drake Dunsmore managed to remember how to play football and scored two touchdowns to make it to halftime, trailing by only 11 points.

So, you might ask, if this was a win, when do I get to the part about the winning? Patience. I'll get there. We just have to slog through the rest of this nightmare first.

Very little happened in the third quarter, with the exception of an interception by Mike Kafka, a blocked Indiana punt which turned into a Northwestern safety, and another Kafka interception.

The second interception thrown by Kafka came at midfield and resulted in Indiana having the ball at the Northwestern 23, leading at this point 28-17. Most of the momentum up until this interception had been in Northwestern's favor, but I felt completely deflated after watching Indiana's Austin Thomas haul in the Kafka pass that looked as though it had almost been thrown right to him. Fortunately, I soon regained a certain measure of confidence.

This is because Indiana is bad. Hilariously bad. I mean it. Really, really bad.

Somehow Indiana managed to screw up a 1st and goal at the Northwestern 7. They rushed the ball to the 2 yard line, before getting pushed back by the defense to the 5 yard line. At 3rd and goal on the five, they completed a pass just short of the end zone, leaving them with 4th and goal at the 1 yard line.

Okay, pop-quiz time. You're Bill Lynch, head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers, and it's 4th and goal. You're leading by 11 points and your team is at the one yard line. What DO you do?

A.) Send the field goal unit out onto the field and take the three easy points for a two touchdown lead.

B.) Aggressively go for the touchdown by pounding the ball up the middle with your biggest back.

C.) Put the ball in the hands of your quarterback Ben Chappell (who had three TDs against Illinois) and trust him to complete a pass.

D.) Line up your team in the Wildcat formation with Mitchell Evans under center and attempt to sneakify the ball into the end zone.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner! Those of you who guessed D, congrats, you understand the bizarre psychology of the Indiana coach. The rest of you, see me after class.

Seriously, though, what on earth was Bill Lynch thinking? You're one yard away from a TD that would put you up by 18 points and instead of just conventionally attempting to get into the end zone, you run a Wildcat play for a two yard loss?? My god. Look, I know some other Big 10 coaches have had touchdown success with trick plays this year (Brett Bielema, I'm looking at you) but usually a trick play only works if the defense doesn't see it coming. Not, you know, if they see you're lining up in the Wildcat formation which you've already used at least twice in the game before and know exactly who the ball is going to and when.

The 4th quarter of this game did not end the insanity. The Wildcats were still deep in their own territory after getting the ball on downs from Indiana's failed TD attempt. After marching to midfield, Kafka managed to complete a long pass to Andrew Brewer who chugged his way with an Indiana defender hanging off his helmet for a total of 51 yards and a TD. It was almost as though Brewer felt that if he didn't get that ball into the end zone right then and there, Kafka was likely to deposit it back into an Indiana defender's hands, keeping Northwestern off the board yet again. That touchdown put the Wildcats within two points, down 28-26.

So this must be the point where the drama stops and the winning starts, right? Right?

Well... no, not really.

The defense managed to step up and hold Indiana in their own territory to force a punt. Kafka and the offense back and then he, after only one play, threw yet another interception. Whoops. There goes that comeback drive.

Fortunately the defense didn't seem to resent being hauled back onto the field quicker than they could down a cup of Gatorade and was able to, once again, keep Indiana off the board, despite allowing Indiana to make it all the way to the Northwestern 33 yard line. This was aided by yet another Bizarre Bill decision to throw the ball on 4th and 3 instead of running it or going for the long field goal, thus turning the ball over on downs again when the pass fell incomplete.

At this point, it seemed that the Northwestern coaching staff wised up and realized that they could not trust Kafka to abstain from being intercepted during a crucial drive. So, they put the ball in the hands of Scott Concannon who somehow managed to carve up the stout until then run defense of Indiana. Concannon has missed much of this season due to a concussion, so it was nice to see him get into this game and make an impact on the ground. When the coaches did let Kafka have the ball, they forced him to throw only very short passes or keep it to himself and scramble for downs. Probably a good idea, at this point.

Northwestern made it all the way to the Indiana 2 yard line before failing to score a TD. Stefan Demos kicked a 19 yard field goal to put the 'Cats up by 1 point with under 30 seconds left. I can't lie, at this point I was very, very nervous. I really had hoped for the TD to give the 'Cats some breathing room and I was not at all confident that the defense could keep Indiana out of field goal range.

Luckily, Northwestern was aided by the fact that Indiana was out of timeouts. Yes, that's right, Bill Lynch had somehow managed to use all of Indiana's second half timeouts before the 4th quarter was even halfway over. I don't think I've ever seen poorer clock management on the part of a Big 10 coach, except for maybe Brett Bielema's MSU shenanigans from seasons past.

This turned out to be a difference maker because Indiana simply lacked enough time to run all but one pass play. They were forced to attempt a 59 yard field goal on 2nd down which, while kicked quite far, fell short of the goal posts and ran out the final seconds on the clock, preserving the Northwestern one point lead.

This game really reminded me of the game against Purdue, and it's not just because both teams are from Indiana. Northwestern won today as much because of their own play as because of mistakes and poor play on the part of the opposing team. Against Purdue, it was a large number of turnovers that made the difference, and today it was poor clock management and play calling decisions that doomed Indiana. Now I don't mean to disparage the excellent second half play of this team - the defense really stepped up and players Nate Williams, Ben Johnson, Quentin Davie, and Brian Peters showed what this defense is capable of. But... the reality is that you can't depend on the other team to make mistakes and give you the game on a silver platter. Letting yourself get into a 28-3 hole and then expecting to win is crazy. Lord help us if we actually do make it to a bowl and play like this.

Despite all the disappointments this season has held, I am happy for the win today and am looking forward to the last few games. Perhaps six wins and a bowl await, and then, while I will be considerably let down, I will at least know that we are better than Illinois, which is what really matters, right?

So, until next week...

Go U! NU!

Is This a Down Year for the Big 10? The BCS Doesn't Think So...

hmlee — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 01:20:10 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

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One of the more oft-repeated truisms of the 2009-2010 college football season is that this is a "down year" for the Big 10 conference. Supposedly, the Big 10 is on a slide from its recent glory days when it was one of the more dominant BCS conferences.

In this meme, the Big 10 has been replaced by the SEC and the Big 12 and now ranks a solid third (sometimes even fourth, behind the Pac-10) in terms of conference power. The "fact" of the Big 10's down year is so widely known, it was even repeated by a SB Nation writer as recently as today in their aggregate coverage of the discussion surrounding the newly released BCS Rankings.

Those same rankings tell a different tale, however. According to the BCS rankings, there is a conference that is having a down year - but it isn't the Big 10. I looked at the rankings and, with the help of my trusty spreadsheet, compared the newly released BCS rankings to both the final and week 1 BCS rankings from 2006-2008 (2006 was the stopping point because that's the earliest year for which the polls in the BCS rankings are identical to the ones used today.) The results of my comparison may surprise you...

Check out other content on The Rivalry, Esq...

Our 2009 BCS and Big 10 bowl projections...

Thoughts on OSU's Terrelle Pryor problem...

A recap and discussion of the weekend's action between undefeated Iowa and Wisconsin...

Perhaps the easiest ways to judge a conference's relative power is to compare the number of teams that conference has in the BCS rankings as compared to the other conferences. There are twenty-five teams ranked in each weekly edition of the BCS rankings, and those teams come from the six major BCS conferences as well as independents and the non-BCS conferences.

For the purposes of this analysis, I did not look at independant teams or teams from the MAC, MWC, WAC, C-USA, or Sun Belt. This comparison is thus just limited to the six BCS conferences. (*The 2009 data points are based on week 1 rankings, since we obviously don't have final rankings for this season yet.)

This graph shows the final BCS rankings from 2006-2009...

In the above graph, we see the year in question represented on the X-axis and the number of teams represented by each conference on the Y-axis. Each colored line represents one of the six conferences.

A few trends are immediately apparent here. First, the SEC has tended to be the most heavily represented conference - having five teams represented in the final 25 ranked teams in the years of 2006 and 2007, and four teams in 2008 and 2009. The Big 12 is not far behind, with four teams in 2006, four teams in 2007, five in 2008, and three in 2009. The ACC has been remarkably consistent - having three teams in the final poll in all but 2007, in which it had four. The Big East is also relatively consistent. They have had three teams represented in both 2006 and 2009, a high of four teams in 2007 and a low of two teams in 2008.

The Pac-10 was heavily represented in 2006 with four teams, but has declined every year since, with the exception of this year in which they increased their representation from two to three teams.

Finally, we can take a look at the Big 10. Similar to the SEC, the Big 10 has been represented by two different number of teams during the four years examined. Unlike the SEC, the Big 10's representation in the BCS Rankings has increased - having only three teams in the rankings in 2006 and 2007, and four teams in 2008 and 2009.

So far, it would seem that the Big 10 is actually having a year identical to last year - and an improvement over the 2006-2007 era. Of the major conferences, the one conference with a significant down year appears to be the Big 12. This intuitively makes sense. Sam Bradford's injury woes at Oklahoma along with the mediocrity of former representatives such as Texas Tech, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M has contributed to the decline in their overall conference representation.

But wait, you say. It doesn't seem fair to compare the 2009 Week 1 rankings to the final rankings from past years - after all, don't the teams shuffle in the weeks between the first released rankings and the final rankings? Well, yes, they do. However, while the specific teams represented may change from week to week, the number of teams each conference has in the rankings remains surprisingly consistent throughout the BCS ranking period.

A second graph bears this out:

This is a graph of the Week One BCS Rankings from 2006-2009...

In this graph we see the number of teams represented in the week 1 BCS rankings by each conference from the years 2006-2009. Similar to the above graph, a few trends are apparent.

First, the SEC and the Big 12 appear to be slightly over-represented in the week 1 rankings as compared to where the teams shake out in the end. In 2007, the SEC had a conference high of seven teams represented in the week 1 BCS rankings, only to have two of those teams drop off the rankings map by the time the final rankings came out. In 2008, the Big 12 nearly tied this record, having six teams in the week 1 rankings, before losing one team by the time the final rankings appeared. The over-representation of the SEC and Big 12 (along with the over-representation of the Pac-10 in 2007) have caused under-representation among the other conferences in the BCS - the Big 10, ACC, and Big East in the various years examined.

Looking just at the Big 10 now, we notice that in 2006 the Big 10 was represented by four teams in the week 1 rankings, before falling to only two teams in 2007. In 2008 and 2009, the Big 10 improved and has held steady with four teams once again represented in the week 1 rankings. We can thus conclude that if any recent year was a down year for the Big 10 based on the week 1 BCS rankings, that year would have to be 2007. In 2009 the Big 10 has actually held steady on the improvement it underwent in 2008.

Digging deeper into this graph we can also see that, in comparison to 2008, the SEC has, like the Big 10 held steady, while the ACC, Big East, and Pac-10 have all improved. The lone conference to have a decline in representation in the week 1 rankings from 2008 to 2009 is our old friend, the Big 12.

One final argument that I've often heard is that, really, the full BCS rankings don't matter, only the top 10 places do. After all, there are four BCS bowls in addition to the national championship game, with the top 10 teams in the rankings usually somewhat close to the teams that go to these bowls. So, maybe conference power should really be measured by how many teams a conference has ultimately had ranked in the top 10 places at the end of the season.

Looking into this produces one more graph:

This graph shows the number of schools each conference had in the top 10 of the final BCS rankings from 2006-2009...

Here we see the number of teams each conference has in the top 10 rankings of the BCS by year, from 2006-2009. (*Again, the 2009 data points are the week 1 rankings, because we do not have final rankings to work with.)

An examination of this graph reveals that the SEC is well represented among the top teams and has held steady with three teams in the top 10 from 2007-2009. This was an improvement over the two teams they had in the top 10 in 2006. The Big East was decently represented in the top 10 in 2006 and 2007, but reached a low of no team in the top 10 in 2008. Since then they have slightly rebounded, having one team (Cincinnati, currently) in the top 10 in the 2009 rankings.

The Pac-10 has followed a slightly similar path -represented by two teams in 2006 and 2007, and by just one team in 2008 and 2009. The ACC and the Big 10 are two other conferences with similar patterns. Each conference shuttles back and forth between two data points every other year - between zero and one team represented for the ACC and one or two teams represented for the Big 10. Currently, the Big 10 has only one team represented in the top 10 - Iowa - which is down one representative from 2008. This graph, thus could be used to justify the theory that the Big 10 is having a down year, but because of the Big 10's cyclical pattern with top 10 representation, it is quite a stretch.

In fact, we notice looking at this graph that there is really only one other pattern that stands out. The Big 12 has consistently been represented by one team in the top 10 (usually Texas) in the years 2006, 2007, and 2009. In 2008, though, they were represented by a conference high of four teams in the top 10. That is the highest conference representation among the major conferences in all the years examined, higher than even the SEC can claim. Their descent from this lofty height back to having only one team in the top 10 certainly represents a major decline. This graph, then, like the others suggests that the conference having a down year in the 2009-2010 season is actually the Big 12, not the Big 10.

So... if the BCS rankings don't bear out the theory that the Big 10 is in the midst of a down year, why is that truism so prevalent? Well, I have a few hunches...

First, the ascendancy of the SEC over the last several years and the great year that the Big 12 had in 2008 seems to have pushed those two conferences to the forefront of commentators and voters thoughts when evaluating the conferences relative power among the BCS, regardless if this is matched by play on the field or not.

Also, the BCS rankings are seeing increasing representation from the non-BCS conferences and the independent schools within the top 10. While these conferences have always been represented in relatively consistent numbers within the entirety of the BCS rankings, their recent jump into the top 10 has pushed certain BCS conference schools out of or lower in the rankings, thus artificially deflating the stock of some of the teams in the Big 10. It can certainly be argued that these "outside" teams deserve their high rankings just as much as the teams in the Big 10, and this is a point that I wouldn't necessarily debate. However, their ascendancy is a possible contributor to the myth of the Big 10's decline.

Finally, while the middle schools of the SEC, the Big 12, and the Pac-10 are mediocre and the bottom schools truly rotten, the dominance of the conference power houses (Florida, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC) casts a halo around the rest of the conference that makes their conference look stronger as a whole. With OSU's recent faltering, the Big 10 doesn't really have a star team that has the same effect.

Sure, Iowa is currently undefeated, but when even Vegas doesn't believe in you, it's hard to say that their record pulls the rest of the conference up in comparison to the other BCS conferences. This is compounded by some near losses on the part of Iowa to "easy" teams like Northern Iowa. Part of what helps Florida cast such a glow over some of the lesser SEC schools is that when they play teams perceived as easier they tend to beat them by 40 or 50 points. While I personally find such pummeling of inferior competition distasteful, it's clear that it makes an impact in the broadcast world. This is most easily illustrated by the attention that the major college football broadcasters - ESPN and CBS - pay to the SEC. Heck, they've even got a new SEC / ESPN logo these days. Dare to dream, I suppose...

Perhaps if Iowa continues their play and earns some style points along the way this all will change. The ideal situation for the Big 10 as far as reputation gathering goes, would be for the trio of Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State (or another three, though those are currently the most likely) to return to dominance and stay there for a few years. This would then hopefully start to change the pervasive, yet misleading, aura of weakness around the Big 10.

Everyone Is So Not Who I Thought They Were: Wisconsin Loses to Iowa 20-10

hmlee — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 19:51:41 -0000

More photos » by Andy Manis - AP

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Well, except for Northwestern. But that's a story for a different post. You know, if you only look at the first half of the Ohio State game and the first half of the Iowa game, then Wisconsin is 7-0. Wait... I'm not allowed to do that?

Aw, shucks.

So, maybe this glass isn't half full. The Badgers, once again, managed to play 30 minutes of great football before utterly collapsing. Except, this time the collapse came at home at Camp Randall and not on the road in a tough game in the 'Shoe. Today's game against Iowa really was a game of what ifs...

What if Bielema hadn't subbed Curt Phillips in for Scott Tolzien in the 2nd quarter and seemingly killed Wisconsin's offensive momentum for the rest of the game?

What if Tolzien hadn't thrown three more interceptions - one of which eventually resulted in 7 points for Iowa, and two which killed crucial 4th quarter drives?

What if Garrett Graham hadn't suffered a head injury in the first half?

What if John Clay hadn't also suffered an injury, which seemed to slow down his run game in the second half?

What if Nick Toon hadn't dropped a catchable pass at about the five yard line on third down?

What if Philip Welch hadn't subsequently missed a 38 yard field goal, leaving the score tied?

Finally, what if the Badger defense hadn't completely dissappeared for two quarters, allowing Iowa to put up 20, yes, 20, unanswered points?

In the end, though, the really great teams find a way to win despite all the what ifs on any given Saturday and the kinda-sorta-good teams, well, don't.

Seems like the 2009 Wisconsin Badgers are a kinda-sorta-good team, huh?

Graham takes a look at the Big 10 match-up of the week...

I replay the tough loss against Ohio State in week 6...

If you noticed, the top of my post is titled "Everyone is so not who I thought they were..." I'll get more into Wisconsin below, but I'd like to briefly talk about Iowa and Ohio State. As much as it kills me to write this, maybe Iowa is the best team in the Big 10. I was rather bruatlized by Iowa fans earlier this season for ranking them below OSU and Penn State. At the time, I said, "Show me more." Well, they have, and with OSU's shocking loss to Purdue today, I think I'm ready to change my mind.

Iowa, I've concluded, is the res ipsa loquitur team. You don't really know how it happened, but they keep on winning against good teams, and you know that usually undefeated teams are great so, like with res ipsa loquitur, you're kind of forced to conclude that they are a great team. It's odd, though. They don't have a run game. Their QB can be good, but he also has an alarming propensity to throw interceptions at crucial moments. Their defense is obviously very, very good but usually that by itself is not enough to win a conference. Really, they shouldn't be this good. But they are. And that's all that matters.

Ohio State... well, after today they look like a great team that is going to be fatally undone by the very mediocre play of the quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Their defense is amazing. The front seven completely brutalized Tolzien and the Bucky offense last week. Their linebackers find ways to intercept balls and then score touchdowns off of them. Their special teams is consistently good, and has the ability to break off the great type of plays that define a conference champion. But... they too, don't have a running game. And their QB isn't nearly as capable as Ricky Stanzi.

Where does this leave the conference, then? Iowa still has a date at the 'Shoe, which they could easily lose. But, unless they also get upset by one of Michigan State, Indiana, Northwestern, or Minnesota they are going to win the Big 10. I don't think that they will go to the BCS championship game, but that says more about the BCS voters than it does the Iowa team. So, that means they'd be ticketed for the Rose Bowl, likely against USC. If, on the other hand, they lose to OSU, get upset in one of their other four conference match-ups, AND Ohio State doesn't lose another game, the Buckeyes would head to the Rose Bowl via the tiebreak rules.

Okay... back to Wisconsin. Wisconsin is not who I thought they were. They are worse. I was very happy about the road win at Minnesota, and, while the Ohio State game was painful to watch, I understood the loss. It is true that in both of those games they looked a bit shaky... but I chalked that up to a young team playing on the road. It's starting to look more like this play is endemic to the team itself, and not just a factor of being on the road.

So, here are the takeaways from today's game:

Offense:

I still love Scott Tolzien, despite his sudden rash of interceptions. He's having a lot more pressure put on him because of failures of our offensive line, and that plus a few bad decisions is causing the turnovers. It is important to note that these turnovers have come against the two best defensive units in the Big 10. If he can avoid doing that against lesser defenses, then Wisconsin can still finish this season strong.

Despite my detractors last week, I still love John Clay. He is a feature back. Starting because Zach Brown was out due to a concussion, Clay managed to rack up 70 rushing yards in the first half. He suffered a leg injury of some kind in the second quarter, and it might have been that or fatigue that made him ineffective in the second half. I also have to give credit to Montee Ball, the freshman, for stepping in admirably after that injury to Clay. He had some great carries, including a 10 yard TD run. It is my hope that Clay's injury is not serious and that he'll be ready to go for next week, because if he's out, the Wisconsin offense is in trouble.

Defense:

I think that the defense is still a great unit - for the first half of the football game. I have no idea where they go after the half, and that is something that needs to be addressed. They are a young unit with great capacity for improvement over the next two years, but they need to learn to play for 60 minutes. They tend to come out strong - forcing both OSU and Iowa to 3 and outs in the start of these past two games, but then they fade. They have the ability to force turnovers - today's fumble recovery was their 17th of the season - but the secondary is weak and our cornerbacks get beat on pass plays far too often.

Special Teams:

The special teams is merely okay. Philip Welch had a great middle of the season.. after going only 2/5 in FG attemps in the first two games he had three straight perfect weeks. Then, he missed two last week and one this week. One of the missed ones against OSU was an absurdly long 57 yarder, which is excusable, but the other was a 33 yarder. Today's missed FG was a 38 yarder. Those two misses are not okay. His job as a kicker is to come on and put up points on the board when asked. If the offense is forcing him into extremely long situations, then it's understandable that he would miss a few, but he can't be missing chip shot or routine field goals. Our kick returns today were not nearly as bad as last week, but they still weren't good. David Gilreath really doesn't look comfortable out there. I'm not sure if the special teams mediocrity is because of the players or because of Brett Bielema. Maybe after this season he should hire a full time ST coach.

Coaching:

Our offensive playcalling was fine for the first half... Clay was performing well and Tolzien threw the ball when he needed to. The second half? Not so much. Time after time, Iowa stacked eight players and shut down the Wisconsin run game. Time after time, we continued to run on first down. The one time that we threw on first down in the fourth quarter we threw to the running back! I'm not sure why the versatility in the Badgers' offense disappeared, but the coaches need to remember that interceptions and receiver drops aside, Tolzien is a good QB - if you give him plays to throw on.

I'm reluctant to blame the performance of the defense on the coaching. Our blitzes were getting picked up too easily in the late game, but a lot of the other defensive issues can be blamed on missed tackles, idiotic penalties, and a secondary that just gets beat. I feel like if the coaching were to blame, the defense wouldn't be good at all, not good for a half and then non-existent for the second half.

So... After the bye, Wisconsin next gets Purdue at home. Purdue is not a good team. Yes, they did just beat Ohio State, but I think we can all agree that was completely unexpected. Wisconsin needs to take a hard look at the film from the last two weeks and figure out where things have gone so wrong. The season and a good bowl bid can still be saved. Let's start now.

On to game 8, On to getting back on track, and ON WISCONSIN!!!

Halfway Home: Wisconsin fails to upset Ohio State, 31-13

hmlee — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 20:50:00 -0000

More photos » by Terry Gilliam - AP

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The word of the day, readers, is "half." Half is the word for two reasons - after this week we are halfway through the season, and, also, the Badgers managed to play only half a decent game against Ohio State. It's hard to believe, but we have been through six games already. The halfway mark in College Football always sneaks up on me. The non-con games that load up the first half are usually against teams that I've either never heard of or heard of but don't care about. Ideally my team knocks off the cupcakes in games that were never in doubt. Then come a few conference games and, before you know it, the back end of the schedule has snuck right on up.

Even when your team goes six and.. er... ahem... five and one, the first half of the schedule always feels unsatisfying because of the dearth of conference action. The second half is always better, though, as teams shake out in the conference standings and bowl bids begin to take shape. And, frankly, after yesterday's loss, the second half can't come soon enough.

I had the (dubious) pleasure of watching this game on Wisconsin soil. I spent my afternoon on the way to my cousin's wedding in a sports bar in Milwaukee. The place was thick with fans in the right type of red shirts enjoying spotted cows and fried things. A good environment, I thought, to watch the Badgers upset the class of the Big 10.

Yeah, that didn't go so well.

To be fair, the Badgers had half of a good game yesterday. I didn't really expect a win - but I thought there was a chance of one if they came into the 'Shoe and played their best game. The Buckeyes are always tough opponents, but when the Badgers roster is largely comprised of, as it is this year, younger players, it requires even more than good play to beat them.

Unfortunately, Bucky only managed stellar play for 30 minutes on Saturday...

Graham offers his own thoughts on the Week 6 action in the conference...

I take a look at Wisconsin's thrilling road win at The Bank in week 5...

The Milwaukee Brewers Sausages at my cousin's wedding were certainly happier than I was...

Despite one large mistake in the last minute of the first half, Wisconsin played pretty well for the start of this game. The defense came out ready to go, and managed to force 3 and outs or only short gains for the first four Buckeye drives. The offense wasn't nearly as consistent.

Coming into this game, I thought that the Badgers would have to be worried about Terrelle Pryor. Turns out, Pryor wasn't really a factor in this game, throwing for only 85 yards and 1 TD. Rather, the real trouble for the Badgers were the offensive forces of Kurt Coleman, Jermale Hines, and WR / kick returner Ray Small. Er... what? That's right, 21 of the Buckeye's 31 points were scored by players from the defensive or special teams squads. Yikes. So, if the Badgers hadn't managed to shoot themselves in the foot, they would have won this game 13-10.

The biggest of the foot shooters was one Scott Tolzien. Sigh. Tolzien Tolzien Tolzien... I've sung his praises more times than I can recall on this site, but yesterday was just not good. He made two horrid decisions during this game that resulted in 14 points for OSU. On both occasions he attempted to force passes into areas of the field that were completely dominated by red jerseys. He really had no business making throws on both of these plays. At the same time, as frustrated as I am with his poor decision making, it's not entirely his fault. All of the Wisconsin receviers - Isaac Anderson, Nick Toon, David Gilreath, and Garrett Graham - dropped passes that they easily should have caught. Those are the plays that need to get made to beat a good team. If the receivers are dropping easy balls, can you really blame Tolzien for trying to force plays in response?

The Good:

Gilreath actually had a relatively good game, as he was part of several early end-around plays run by the Wisconsin offense that seemed to catch OSU off guard. John Clay, the ever dependable back, was another bright spot on the offense yesterday. He continued to bulldoze his way through defensive lineman and, while not as dominating as against Minnesota, showed why he is a huge key for Wisconsin this season. The only problem with Clay was one of playcalling. Why did he not make an appearance until the final few minutes of the first quarter? Why did Zach Brown get all of the early carries, even though he couldn't make any headway? Clay is a great offensive weapon for Wisconisn, and he needs to be used early and often. Also, special recognition should go to Culmer St. Jean who (along with the rest of the young Bucky D) continued his stellar play from the last few weeks with a 2nd quarter interception of Pryror that set up Wisconsin's first TD.

About that first TD... Chris Maragos made an amazing leap into the end zone on that play. The leap came on a fake FG try towards the end of the second quarter. The ball was snapped and Maragos took the hand off and ran towards the left side of the end zone. A timely block and an acrobatic leap allowed Maragos to stretch the ball just inside the pylon and put six on the board. The play came out of nowhere and after it I felt the best that I have about Wisconsin football all season. Thank you Chris Maragos!

The Bad:

As for the bad... beyond Tolzien and the WRs, a few other culprits contributed to this ugly loss. First off, where on earth was the kick return coverage on Ray Small? It's bad enough when you get burned by an opposing kick return for a TD - it's even worse when that kick return was for 96 yards and largely straight up the middle. The missed tackles on that play were simply inexcusable. I hope that Coach Bielema makes the ST have extra practices or run laps this week in response.

Also, the coaching. It seemed that the coaches upstairs were either asleep or taking a bathroom break during the second quarter, as they missed an easy challenge that could have led to the Badgers heading into halftime with the lead. With just under two minutes left in the half, Pryor threw to TE Jake Ballard for a first down. The only problem was, Jake Ballard did not catch the throw. Rather, he caught on a hop after the nose of the ball grazed the field. Had Wisconsin been paying attention, a challenge would have overturned the call and perhaps the next several incompletes thrown by Pryor would have ended the OSU drive with a punt instead of a TD.

Looking ahead...

As painful as the second half of this game was to watch, it's only one game and one game in which I expected the Badgers to lose. Next week Wisconsin gets an undefeated Hawkeye team at Camp Randall. As good as the Hawkeyes have been this year, their two past wins against Michigan and Arkansas State both came down to the final minutes, and that's in front of a home crowd. The Badgers will certainly have their hands full, but hopefully the more forgiving confines of Camp Randall can help them pull off the upset. Tolzien seems to be more consistent at home, so I have high hopes for this game. In fact, I'm going to call it right now. I say Wisconsin hands the Hawkeyes their first defeat next week and wins by a TD. Hopefully, I'm right.

So...

On to week 7, On to the second half, and ON WISCONSIN!!

Bucky Coronary: Wisconsin Hangs On Against Minnesota, 31-28

hmlee — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 22:31:34 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

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The college football gods seem to have it out for me. They would love nothing more than to fell me with a heart attack before bowl season even rolls around. I mean, okay, I know that all that beer and sausage isn't good for the organ in my chest (to say nothing of my liver), but do the Badgers really have to pile on too? I knew this game wasn't going to be a complete cakewalk (though I did have the spread at 14 - oops) - conference games never are. But, after seeing the Wisconsin secondary manhandle Blair White last week in the Sparty game, I thought that maybe they could do the same against the Minnesota duo of Adam Weber and Eric Decker. And, really, what is the Minnesota offense except for Eric Decker and 10 other supporting actors?

Well, it seems I got that one wrong too. Decker's line for the game:

140 yards receiving and 1 TD.

He had more than half the total receiving yards for the entire Gopher team. Ouch. It really should have been more too, except Decker uncharacteristically couldn't hang on to a few throws from Weber into tight coverage. It's almost funny, in a way. If any other receiver in college football fails to make those plays, the reaction is usually a shrug of the shoulders and a, "It's okay, it wasn't a good throw anyway," type of comment. But if Decker fails to make them? Well, after watching him make ridiculous catch after ridiculous catch, those types of grabs are almost expected and it's kind of a let down when he fails.

Despite the efforts of Decker and the Gopher offense (and their newest player, Zach Brown), however, Bucky managed to leave the Twin Cities the same way he entered - with Paul Bunyon's Axe still in the hands of its rightful owners.

This was largely due to the wonderful, absolutely marvelous play of Big Bad John Clay.

After the jump, I break down the game by unit.

Graham previews the Michigan - MSU game and explains the upset in East Lansing in the Big 10 game of the week...

My coverage of Wisconsin's domination vs. Michigan State in week 4....

Since my recap of last week's action by unit was followed by a Badger win, I decided to go with that format again this week. I'm not superstiious really, but if it works, why change it?

Offense:

Almost all of the Wisconsin offense this week came from Mr. Clay. He wasn't too active in the first half, aside from his 2-yard TD run, but in the second half he really broke out. I don't know why, but the Gopher D just didn't seem to be able to adjust to him. The Wisconisn offense looked almsot typical with run play after run play called... though, unlike typical Wisconsin teams, most of these run-happy drives resulted in points on the board instead of punts. Clay shook tackles and bounced off of defensive linemen almost like a human pinball. It was great to see him execute the fundamentals so well. He kept the ball secure and managed to keep his legs churning for the entirety of his runs, resulting in quite a few extra yards that managed to secure at least three third down conversions. If he keeps playing like he has in the last few games, I expect to see his name show up in the December balloting.

Scott Tolzien had a decent game, throwing for 159 yards and 1 TD. Most of his receptions came on mid-range throws to Garret Graham and Nick Toon, but he also managed to sneak a few into the arms of Lance Kendricks and Isaac Anderson. He did have some poor decisions, though, which resulted in 1 INT and a few other near-INTs. I chalk this up to playing in a road environment for the first time this season. I sincerely hope that it was just a result of such first-time jitters and not an indication that he is only effective as a QB at Camp Randall. If Wisconsin wants to succeed in the rest of their conference play, they need him to play like he has in the first few home games.

Finally, a message for Zach Brown.

Dear Mr. Brown, PLEASE, FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS GOOD AND RIGHT IN THE UNIVERSE, LEARN HOW TO HOLD ON TO A FOOTBALL!

Brown had some decent runs in the first half but, for the third game in a row, fumbled the ball on a routine play. In this particular instance, it resulted in a nearly 90 yard TD return by Minnesota CB Marcus Sherels. It really could not have come at a worse time, as it let Minnesota back into a game that the Badgers were about to put away. Brown was just lucky that John Clay was able to bail him out with a touchdown on Wisconsin's next possession. I touched on this a little last week, but I'm going to bring it up again. If Wisconsin's run game is going to be effective, BOTH of the starting backs need to be able to hold on to the ball and make plays when called upon. The Badgers cannot be forced to rely solely upon John Clay (freshman Montee Ball is pretty much a non-entity right now) for the rest of this season and expect to have it go as well as it did today. I don't care if takes carrying a football everywhere including the john for a week, Zach Brown has got to get his shoddy play under control. If he doesn't, the trip to the 'Shoe next week will not be a pretty one.

Defense:

After the stellar play by the D last week, my remarks about them in this recap are going to seem slight by comparison. The D was not nearly as solid as they were in the Michigan State game, but this is a young unit playing in an extremely hostile environment. I was glad to see that even though they were a bit more porous than usual, they made the critical stops when they had to. I'd like to single out the third quarter intercepion by Patrick Butrym, the fourth quarter sacks by Louis Nzegwu and Blake Sorenson and the subsequent fumble recovery by Chirs Borland as the defensive plays of the game. If the D can make plays like that for the entire game next week, the Badgers might, just might, have a chance against a slightly more anemic than usual Ohio State offense.

Special Teams:

I didn't cover the ST last week, but I would like to touch on it now as it was really was the Jekyll and Hyde unit.

First off, holy moly is our kickoff return coverage bad. Here are the returns by Troy Stoudermire in chronological order:

Kickoff return for 41 yards
Kickoff return for 33 yards
Kickoff return for 26 yards
Kickoff return for 38 yards
Kickoff return for 10 yards (this one was not returned by Stoudermire)
Kickoff for a touchback

In sum, the only way that the Badgers were able to keep the Gophers from reeling off a 20+ yard return on a kickoff was when they either booted it into the end zone or when the ball was caught by the backup return man Jay Thomas. Yikes.

Stoudermire is one of the more dangerous return guys in the Big 10, but special teams cannot continue to spot our opponenets field position at midfield and expect the defense to come out and clean up their mess.

So, if the kickoff return coverage was Mr. Hyde, then who on the ST was Dr. Jekyll?

That honor would go to the punter, Brad Nortman, and the punt return team, with a special mention for Nick Toon. The few punts, aside from an early touchback, were good by and large, with one downed at the 13 and the other at the 5 yard line. Both of the Minnesota drives that followed those punts - one at the end of the first half, and the other at the conclusion of the game - were stopped without points going on the board, which just goes to show how important winning the battle of field position can be.

The special mention for Nick Toon is for his awareness and great handling of the last gasp onside kick attempt by the Gophers. Eric Decker had a hand on the ball, but Toon managed to corral it on the rebound. Had Toon not been there to grab it, I would likely be writing about a heartbreaker of a loss instead of a thrilling win.

From here, the Badgers continue the road festivities with a trip to the Horseshoe and an afternoon battle with Ohio State. I am hoping for, though not expecting, a victory. The realist in me says that such an occurrence is unlikely, but even if Bucky drops the upcoming game, the win against Minnesota will have positioned them very well in the conference. Until time runs out in the 4th, I will hold out my hope for an upset. I thus conclude my recap with:

On to the 'Shoe, On to 6-0, and ON WISCONSIN!!!

No Doubt In My Mind: Wisconsin Rolls Michigan State, 38-30

hmlee — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:28:15 -0000

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I want a brat. Maybe a spotted cow too, now that I think about it. This recap was unfortunately delayed by the mountain of legal reading I found myself under this weekend. I say unfortunately for two reasons. First, because I don't particularly enjoy my civ pro work - really, rule 12(b)(6) can go pluck a duck for all I care. And, second, because this was a big game for Wisconsin, which definitely deserved an immediate recap.

I don't think there is any doubt this week that the Iowa / Penn State game was the most significant in the conference, but, I think I would nominate the Wisconsin / Michigan State game as the runner-up. I suppose if Michigan had actually lost to Indiana, that would have been a big deal too, but, they didn't, so the point is rather moot. In this game, though, we really saw just how far both teams are from their pre-season expectations.

I have to say, when I was looking at the Badgers' schedule in the pre-season, I wasn't exactly looking forward to the opening week of the conference. Much like the 2008 season, I saw three very tough games with one easier opponent to start the conference play. Then, it was OSU, Penn State, and Iowa, with a completely beatable Michigan team (though, every Badger fan knows how that one went.) This year, it was OSU, Iowa, and Sparty first up with a beatable Minnesota team sandwiched in between. It seemed as though the Badgers were doomed for a clone of the 2008 season - race out to 3-0 against non-con opponents and then get dragged down when they actually got to the meat of their schedule.

My fears of this happening only intensified after the six fumbles the Badgers had in the course of their Wofford win, and I really thought that after Saturday I'd be singing along to the classic Foundations song... To wit:

Why do you build me up (Build me up)
Buttercup baby just to
let me down (Let me down)
And mess me around...

Instead, I find myself in an entirely different sort of mood this week. Yes, loyal readers, I'm a believer!

After the jump, I dispense with the 1960s song references and talk about why what I saw in the MSU game makes me think Wisconsin could take the Big 10 by surprise this season...

The SB Nation Big 10 bloggers give a boost to the Badgers in our Post Week 4 Power Poll...

My coverage of Wisconsin's nail-biting win against Fresno State...

I have to say, this game was a real pleasure to watch as a Wisconsin fan. Beyond some early jitters on the Badgers first possession, the team really played as a complete unit, firing on all cylinders, for perhaps the first time this year. Because the game flowed so well from start to finish, I'm going to break down my commentary to the two different sides of the ball.

I'll start with the defense, as I was really impressed by their play in this game. Going into the season, I had been a bit concerned that the Wisconsin D was largely comprised of sophomores and freshman. It's not necessarily true that a young team will play poorly, but having a team dominated by younger players does act as sort of a wild card. In this game, the Badger D looked like they had been playing together for years. They combined as a unit to put a great deal of pressure on Kirk Cousins - forcing him to make quite a few harried, poor decisions. As they were doing this, they also managed to hold the line against the running attempts that Sparty tried to turn to. Their run defense wasn't the most consistent in the game, but they got the job done and made the stops when they needed to, in particular several third down situations which kept State out of the end zone.

Also, the secondary did a fantastic job of essentially removing Blair White as a threat. It was great to see the coaching staff recognize White's talent and game-changing play ability and really work to make sure he didn't burn the Badgers for deep catches.

There are a few players on the defense who made plays that I think are worthy of special recognition:

Patrick Butrym, sophomore DT, for his great hit on Larry Caper for a loss in a 3rd and 1 situation which killed Sparty's second drive of the game.

Mike Taylor, freshman LB, who intercepted Kirk Cousins at midfield and successfully halted MSU, after they had managed to march 22 yards in only a little under two minutes.

Chris Borland, freshman LB, for his recovery of Sparty's late-game on-side kick attempt.

Finally, Chris Maragos, senior CB, for his not one... but TWO INTs on the day. One came in the second off a bad throw by backup State QB Keith Nichol, and the other in the 4th quarter in the end zone to keep Michigan State from cutting down the Badger lead.

Among this excellent play, there are really only two issues I have, and they are minor at best. After the half, the defense came out and initially looked a bit sluggish, but they recovered their footing quickly enough, and managed to hold State to just a field goal after they recovered Zach Brown's fumble (more on that later) in Wisconsin territory. The only other quibble is with the final two and a half minutes of this game. The Badgers had been up by 21 when the D let State back into the game. I don't really have much to complain about regarding State's first TD of the fourth quarter... Wisconsin had managed to stop State enough times in the game previously that seeing State score when they were supposed to wasn't too upsetting. Buuut... that last Hail Mary pass that led to MSU's final TD of the game? Yeah, I didn't like that one too much. Granted, by then, MSU was out of time-outs and probably wasn't a huge threat, but, still, I hope that was just a tiny late-game mental lapse and not something suggestive of a larger problem.

On the offensive side of the ball, Wisconsin looked excellent as well. John Clay was like some sort of unstoppable force of nature. He may not be the speediest RB, but it sure is pretty to watch him bounce off tackles and bulldoze defensive lineman. His play this weekend really did make up for his turnovers against Wofford, and showed that he really is the type of player who recognizes his poor play and works hard to correct it.

Zach Brown on the other hand.... well, I have to say that in general, I think he's played well this year. I did not like watching him fumble a simple hand off in the backfield today, though. Wisconsin's two-RB system is a good one. It might be nice, of course, to have a feature back and a decent second, but having two good primary guys (especially with different skill sets) is useful for keeping the opposing defenses guessing. That being said, the only way for this system to actually work is for BOTH of the RBs to be consistent and sure handed with the football. The opposing defenses won't be kept guessing if they think Bielema can't trust one of his backs to not have butterfingers.

As for Scott Tolzien... well, the more I see this kid play, the more I love him. So much for that notion of him as a career backup. He has really come out of the gate this season and commanded the field in a way that I did not expect at all. He made some great deep throws to Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson, as well as quite a few quick, short plays to the TEs Garrett Graham and Lance Kendricks. He may not be Darryl Clark or Tate Forcier, but he is the type of QB that can go out there and make the plays necessary to open holes for Bucky's running game and still remain a threat himself. Wisconsin hasn't had this type of quarterback play since at least 2005/2006.

So, where do we go from here? I think that if the young defense can put together more games like this one, and John Clay / Scott Tolzien can continue their solid offensive play, the Badgers will be a serious threat in the conference this year. I'm not dreaming of a trip to Pasadena by any means, but I don't think a good bowl game is at all out of the question if they keep this up.

This weekend, at Minnesota, I foresee a win. The game against Northwestern not withstanding, the Gophers don't really have much of a running game. They do have Eric Decker, but, if Wisconsin can contain Weber and Decker like they contained Cousins and White... the Badgers should be rolling out of the Twin Cities with Paul Bunyan's axe still securely in tow.

So, until next time,

On to week 5, On to The Bank, and ON WISCONSIN!!