SB Nation User Blog: hoosierteacher

MHR Chalk Talk -- Week 13 - Denver at New York Jets

hoosierteacher — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 07:18:34 -0000

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IN DENVER BRONCO PRE-GAME ANALYSIS

MILEHIGHREPORT.COM

When the Broncos win, fans can easily see their team positioned for a run at a high seeding in the playoffs. When the Broncos lose, fans quickly turn to despair and end of the world predictions. The truth is that Denver remains a team in transition, and as such, will win some surprising games and lose some games that looked easy on the schedule. For fans wanting to avoid a heart attack, Chalk Talk recommends staying the course, and looking at the season as a whole. If you really want to get excited, stay the course and continue to use next year as the measure of great things to come.

Despite poor play against Oakland, Denver remains atop the AFC West by two games, and still has a schedule (comparable to SD) that allows Denver to set it's own destiny. Denver has enough time to fix problems, heal injuries, and make adjustments to make a run at the end of the season. Looking at the NYJ's game in detail, we can see a microcosm of what Denver needs to do to improve.

Let's look at how to play against a team like the Jets, and why the keys to beating the Jets are exactly the things Denver should be doing in general.

Let's get one thing out of the way. Despite having coached football at the lower academic levels (HS and below, and just as a coordinator), I am not a pro level coach. Like all of us, I am a Monday morning quarterback who likes to tell the real coaches what they did wrong, and what they need to do better. I have a lot of sympathy for pro coaches, because I had to put up with every local yokel who pretended to know more about coaching my team than I did.

The locals don't study the tape that I do, don't understand the real reason a kid isn't starting, and don't understand why a great play in one game won't work against a specific team we are playing the next week. I get that. I've lived it, and so I try to be careful about ever being critical of another coach. And who am I to be critical of coaches who are at a level light years beyond anything I ever did?

What I can do comfortably is express what it is about our current team that doesn't make sense to me, with the hope that a press conference will explain these things, or we will see the changes made on the field. I always assume (unlike some of the old media sports writers) that the coaches know more about the team and the game than I do, so I am putting down my thoughts with a lot of respect. But I want to take a look at some things we don't seem to be doing right (ala the Raiders game), and some things I think would help us out against the NYJs. For instance...

Winning the Turnover Battle

Steve O' has it right in this piece. When we turn the ball over, we lose to bad teams. When we protect the ball, we can beat anyone. Is there anything that can be done to protect the ball at a "macro level"? Sure, at the micro level we can practice with pads on. But this "novel" idea didn't do anything for the Raiders game, did it?

Yes. At the macro level, or the playcalling level, we can protect the ball. We do this by calling a lot of run plays. There is a larger risk of a turnover during a pass play than a run play. There are many reasons for this:

While the ball is in the air, no one controls it. During a run play, the ball is always in someone's hands.
In the right place at the right time, anyone can catch an interception. But this isn't the case in causing and recovering a fumble. First, a player must strip the ball (or make a hrd hit) instead of making a sound tackle. Second, the defense must get to the loose ball first.
A tired defense is less likley to cause a turnover, and run plays wear down a defense more than pass plays.

Denver has been living on Cutler's arm. That's not such a bad thing, because Denver has a great quarterback, great receivers, and great receiving TEs and RBs. Down to a fifth string RB, the pass may look like a great thing. But the more he throws, the more the chance for an interception. Also, the more he throws, the more defenses will go into pass coverage schemes, further increasing the danger.

Denver doesn't need big chunks of yards on the ground. They only need consistent yards. Looking at the stats provided by CalvinandHobbs, one sees that we have a great offensive line, even if we don't have runners that make the grade. But I might differ with the conclusions of Calvin's stats. We don't get a lot of yards, and we don't get a lot of breakaway runs, but not because of supar runners. It is because we don't run the ball often enough to get those gains.

Perhaps you have heard of RBs getting better as the game goes on. As an MHR reader, you are likely aware of the axiom that RBs don't get better as a game goes on, the defense gets worn down at a faster rate than an offense does (if the offense is running the ball). Without wearing down defenses, we aren't getting the big runs late in the game. Also, because of turnovers, we are playing games from behind or close games, which require more passing. Let's look back at the Oakland game, and ahead to the Jets game, to see how this plays out.

Against Oakland -

In the first quarter the Broncos had the Raiders right where they wanted them. Denver was so effective running the ball that the Raiders had to do what Denver does for most of every game. Oakland had to drop a safety into the box.

The first drive took almost 7 minutes off of the clock. It led to a fumble at about the Oakland 6 yard line. Denver couldn't be stopped by Oakland, and only stopped themselves. Still, Oakland only had the ball twice, and the defense kept them to a 3 and out, and stopped the second Oakland drive inside Oakland's side of the field. The quarter went so fast (because the run game kept the clock moving), that Denver moved into the second quarter before most fans at home had even settled in for the game. If Denver had replayed the first quarter, they would have been inside the redzone with a tired Oakland defense, and kept Oakland in terrible field position.

Then what happened? The pass heavy Broncos came out, and moved the ball down the field, where the kicker made a field goal, and missed two others (in fairness to him, the wind was horrible that day). Oakland again had two possessions, and Denver's defense held Oakland to a 3 and out, as well as a FG.

As the game wore on, Oakland's defense never wore down. Denver's defense couldn't stop a TD when Cutler threw an INT on Denver's side of the field. Oakland ran the ball heavily, and Denver's defense went from effective to exhausted. Then the real beating started.

Throughout the passing game, Styg was making the comment (on the MHR game thread) that Denver was more busy trying to drive a dagger in the heart of Oakland than just killing them. He was right. Instead f taking the easy downs and moving the chains, Cutler repeatedly went deep. This risked turnovers, resulted in few catches, and stopped drives that could have worn down the defense and converted into TDs. Let me take Styg's analogy further.

In the army, I learned that an expert with a knife rarely thrusts, he slashes. A puncture leads to less blood loss than a slash. In football, a running game is like a slash. Let's use boxing as another example. A street fighter may come out swinging for the knockout right away. but the pro boxer uses jabs and body blows. Then, when the opponent is worn down, the professional boxer uses the knock out . Denver was trying to knock out an opponent who hadn't been worn down yet.

Carry This Thought over to New York -

One thing I love about the Giants / Jets is that their stadium is built with a nifty home field advantage. At one end of the field there is a tunnel that leads to the outside world. There, at the outer edge of the stadium, is a giant door. This door is used for deliveries, and is massive. Here's the kicker:

When the home team is on the field, the door is shut. When the opposing offense takes the field, the door is rolled open! The result? A heavy draft of wind that causes inpredictable wind currents (eddies) within the stadium. This affects passing, and even field goal attempts. Nice huh?

What this means for Denver is what it should have meant in the home game against Oakland with the unusualy bad winds. Denver needs to keep the ball on the ground! In fact, keeping the ball on the ground would mean a few fumbles here and there, but many less interceptions. And it's the interceptions that are killing us.

Some will correctly point out the strength of the Jets is both running and stopping the run (which allows Favre to do his thing). This is true, and they proved it against Tenn. But Denver doesn't need to gain big yards on the ground. They need to make a lot of short but consistent runs to eat the clock, wear down the defense, and enhance the passes that Cutler makes.

Throw Away the Spread Offense / Vertical Attack

The spread offense can be an effective tool in the right hands. While it is more of a collegiate system, there are applications that can work at the NFL level. There are also spread offenses that are not overly passing dependent. In fact, I really like the spread offense. But not in the incarnation used by Denver.

The thinking of the Denver coaches (if I am correct) is that we have a superman at QB, and at least 5 great receiving players on the field at any time. We are deep at WR, TE, and even FB. This could make any coach want to hit the air. The problem is that one can go this route so often that it becomes one dimensional.

As wonderful as a spread offense can be, it loses its luster when the opposing defense can just settle into a pass defense look all day. And believe me, defensive players love the pass. On passing downs, the defensive linemen get to be the aggressors. On passing downs, the front seven act instead of react, which also leads to less wear and tear. The coordinator loves passes, because passes mean a better chance for turnovers. Remember, most defensive coordinators start from the premise that one should take away the run, and the spread offense (in our variation) conceeds the point right away.

To take away the pass, teams can simply play two deep safeties, zone or blitz the LBs, and give the defensive line the green light. Given enough plays, there will be turnovers (as demonstrated by Cutler and co). Two great examples of elite passers using the run game are Manning (multiple play action) and Elway (misdirection).

We have an elite running system, we have an elite offensive line, and even our fifth string RBs have proven they can rack up the yards. But we abandon the run whenever it stalls, or let ourselves get behind to the point we feel we have to throw. Often, we are behind because of a turnover. The odd thing is that many of our turnovers are in the redzone, and the defense holds. Why not keep our field position advantage and burn off the clock with that advantage?

Worse still, in the Oakland game the Broncos "switched places" with Oakland. While Oakland ran the ball down our throats with the zone block system we made famous, our offense switched from the spread offense to an outdated and discredited system, the "vertical pass".

The vertical pass comes in two forms. The classic (early NFL) version is to power run the ball, with multiple deep passes to spread the defense verticaly. This has become outmoded, because modern defenses play two safeties deep (oops, not Denver) and the schemes developed for CBs to take away routes have become more complex. Offenses have learned (thanks to Walsh) that spreading a defense horizontaly is more effective in passing. The version that Denver used is a purely collegiate system, and is more of a run and shoot without any run and with only deep "shoots".

The question is, is the scheme meant to be this terrible, or is Jay only throwing to his deep options in an attempt to force the win instead of moving the chains? Either way, blame the coaches.

When Jay is coached to take what is given (as in the TB game) he does an excellent job managing the game and taking what the defense gives him. But when he is given multiple options he picks the right one most of the time and does a fine job. But he also throws just enough interceptions to tarnish drives that could have gone for 3 or 7 points. There are two reasons for this:

The defense knows the pass is coming on most plays,
The high rate of passes ensures more INTs.

An "all or nothing" pass is a low percentage affair, and high risk. It can be effective in only two points in a game. One, if the team is losing and has nothing left to lose, or two, if the team runs the ball so heavily that the opposition doesn't see the deep pass coming. If Denver would reign in Superman, he would end up looking more like Superman. Multiple, high percentage passes that can't be easily defensed. Imagine the following scenario:

Cutler makes short passes to Marshall, who gets a lot of yards after carry because he is a brute. Cutler makes a lot of intermediate passes to Royal, because Royal has the "double moves" to get open. Cutler makes a lot of intermediate passes to Scheffler, because Scheffler is a mismatch for most LBs in the League, and Scheffler makes a lot off passes to Graham and Stokely, because both know how to fight for the ball. The kicker: the defense isn't covering these guys well because Denver is constantly pounding the ball up the field on the ground, and these elite receivers are left unguarded. Unlikely? It was what we did for the first portion of the Raiders game, and it was working. And while it was happening, our defense was resting comfortably on the sideline, and coming in only briefly to stop Oakland's offense on 3 and outs.

But here is what happens instead. Denver comes out throwing deep on most plays. It's like backyard football! "Everybody go deep, and I'll try to hit someone!" Some fans will point out that several of those deep throws were very close affairs. Styg, in a poetic reply in a game thread, made a great statement. It was something to the effect of "exactly". In other words, a ton of "close passes" don't win games. We need receptions, even short and intermediate ones, much more than we need deep passes that go uncaught.

Against the 3-4 as run by the NYJs (a Fairbanks Bullough version that is closer to the Patriots than the Phillips run by the Chargers), we can expect a lot of LBs in zone coverage instead of heavy blitzing. Will Denver take advantage by hitting the gut early and often? Against Oakland, Denver forced a safety to come into the box. Instead of keeping him there with frequent runs plays, Denver gave into the pass temptation and lost the advantage. They'll need more patience against the Jets.

Don't Ruin Barrett!

The quickest way to ruin a safety is to misuse him then fire him. If we ask Barrett to cover the entire deep field of play, he won't be able to do much. He'll be second guessing decisions as they are made, will find himself out of positon, and will miss tackles because he is in the midst of readjusting instead of committing to a course of action from the start of the play.

The safety positon is designed to provide "over coverage" for half of a field. If the front seven do their jobs, the safety can focus on pass protection. When the safety can do his job, the cornerbacks have the flexibilty to force plays, rather than simply react.

In my humble opinion (and bear in mind that free safety has always been my favorite position, so I should be biased here), Denver does not need an elite safety right now to fix their woes. As much as I would love to see an early round safety come to Denver, I think the safeties we have (or have had) would perform well if they weren't expected to cover an entire field. Let Barrett play free safety this week. Line up Manuel next him. Let each player take a half of the field, or a third (if we play a sky or cloud coverage), or drop a safety into man (TE) on occassional plays. But if we keep Barrett alone in the deep field, he will get burned, and he will allow the CBs to get burned. By himself, Barrett faces:

Little help from the front seven in pass rush, decreasing his reaction time,
Little help from the front seven, forcing him to account for runners as well as receivers,
Little help from a strong safety who is stuck in the box, forcing him to cover an entire field.

I'm excited to see what Josh can do for us. But he deserves to play in a defense that is designed to use each element of the defense as a single unit, instead of leaving different units on an island to fend for themselves.

Another consideration is Favre's favorite target, the slant pattern. Favre has a strong enough arm and enough experience to make these plays work. This will make life rough for Barrett if he is alone.

The slant is a double edged sword. It is tricky, because the throw has to lead the receiver who is moving east/west. It is further complicated because the defensive players are harder to account for when the QB is watching the target, lead area for the throw. On the other hand, the receiver often gets out in front of the corner, and the safeties (even if there are two) are often taken out of the picture by other receivers whose routes are designed to take them away fro the play. No one plays the slant as well as Favre, and it is his bread and butter pattern to throw to. Look to last year's game to see what happens to elite corners (both Bailey and Bly) when the safety is alone in the deep field.

Keys to the Game

Denver -

Denver must slow down the Jets running game. If they can force the Jets to be one dimensional, they can slow the offense.
Denver needs to limit interceptions. They can do this by running the ball more, and playing the Jets like they played NO and TB. Take what the defense gives, and stop forcing deep throws instead of gaining downs.
Hit the gut. Sweeps won't work too well against the Jets 3-4, because of the wide alignment of the OLBs. Jenkins is one of the best NTs in the NFL today, but if you want to beat him, you have to put hits on him early and often. Wear down Jenkins by hitting him (instead of letting him aid the pass rush by occupying OLmen, which is what he wants to do).

NYJs -

If you can run the ball on Denver, run it all day long.
Take away Denver's run game. The more Denver throws, the better chances are of a turnover.
Stop the deep pass. Denver loves to score on big plays.

The NYJs are a good team. There's no doubt about it. Denver can win this game, but only if they play up to potential. As a young team, Denver has little consistency. They play brilliantly one moment, then terribly the next. They lose to a team like the Raiders or the Chiefs, but they beat teams like Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

I have to give an edge to the Jets for this one. The Jets are locked in enough of a race for the AFC East that they likely won't take Denver for granted after the big win over TENN. Unlike Denver, there are enough vets on this Jets team that know not to take any game lightly.

Fear not Denver fans. As badly as Denver fans mirror their young team (too many emotional highs and lows), the team is still two games ahead of SD for the AFC West, and right about where many prognosticators would have put the team before the season began. (I had Denver splitting games with the Raiders, and didn't imagine SD would be so poor this year, though I saw a decline was coming). SD has ATL this week, and while I give the edge to SD for this one, ATL has a shot of knocking down SD.

Again, let the players focus game by game. Keep your eyes on the prize (the Quest), and watch the season overall. We are a younger, but better team than last year, and have the bonus of a shot at the playoffs. We're moving in the right direction, and the pains we have now as fans are the price of building a solid program with youth. Hang in there Denver fans!

Early Games Open Thread!

hoosierteacher — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 18:12:09 -0000

Feel free to use this space to comment on the early games!

They are:

PHI at BAL

HOU at CLE

TB at DET

BUF at KC

CHI at STL

NYJ at TEN

NE at MIA

MIN at JAX

SF at DAL

(PIT beat CIN on Thu's game).

Stay tuned for Guru and Friends picks, and the game day Broncos threads!

Which Teams a Broncos Fan Should Cheer For (week twelve)

hoosierteacher — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 13:14:14 -0000

So you're sitting there wondering which game to watch, and Denver isn't available. Which team do you cheer for if you want the outcome to help Denver? No problem; MileHighReport.com has you covered.

Remember, this has nothing to do with which teams we like or hate. It is purely based on what outcomes best position Denver for the playoffs, and a good seeding once there.

We're also rating the games on how important they are for Denver fans. For instance, a Denver game, or a game that features a Denver division rival, gets near a 5, while a less important game gets a 1. So given a choice of several games, you now know which one is more important to watch! (Teams for Denver fans to cheer for are in CAPS).

Let's feed the schedule into MHR's Super Computer and see what results we get...

Some very major changes go into the calculation settings for this week.

It is assumed that Denver must win the division. If SD takes the division, a wildcard is very unlikely.
It is also assumed that, given the tight grouping below the Titans and the difficulty of schedules for the seed teams we are competing against, that the next highest priority to winning the division is winning a seeding between 4 and 2.
Given the above parameters, many games at this late point in the season lose any significance, and are thus not listed.

Teams to root for are in caps. Critical games are boldened.

PHI at bal - Take the NFC over the AFC

nyj at TENN (4.8) - We are competing with the Jets for seeding. TENN is first seed, and out of range

MINN at jax (2) - Take the NFC over the AFC

BUF at kc (4) - Root against AFC West teams

ne at mia (-0-) - Same record; both could be competing for a seed against us. mia leads ne by a fraction in tiebreaker, but it doesn't affect us. Root for the team you think is the weaker of the two

oak at DEN (5+) - Always take Denver

IND at sd (4.9) - If we don't win the division, a wildcard slot is very unlikely

Root against the following teams for seed help:

Pitt
Any team in the AFC East that either has more wins, or a similar record to Denver
SD

MHR Chalk Talk -- Week 12 - Oakland at Denver

hoosierteacher — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:34:15 -0000

YOUR SOURCE FOR THE VERY BEST

IN DENVER BRONCO PRE-GAME ANALYSIS

MILEHIGHREPORT.COM

For Everything Raiders Related, Check Out Silver & Black Pride

As I write this report, I'm battling some kind of illness that MHR's own Dr. BroncoBear needs to look into. I seem to be suffering from something that is a cross between ebola, anthrax, and the bubonic plague. Fever, vomiting, stomach cramping, swollen lymph glands, headache, and the worst sore throat ever. For that reason, this is the hardest final draft I've written for MHR. One thing keeps me from crawling into bed and resigning myself to an engagement with my Lord and Maker however...

That's right Baby....

It's time for the epic good versus evil match-up that we've all been waiting for. Yep. Twice a year the Heavens and the bowels of Hell open up to cast forth the armies of rightousness (the Denver Broncos) and the demons of darkness (the Oakland Raiders). To some of the more unbalanced fans in our midst, these two games hold more significance than even the Superbowl itself. But to all of us, something in the fabric of time, space, dimension, and destiny has gone awry if Denver doesn't manage to beat the grotesque, morbid henchmen of the dark overlord himself, Darth Al Davis.

And so dear readers, come with me into MHR's Chalk Talk this week as we break down the match-up between the angels and the demons, and see why good should triumph over evil, or (Heaven Forbid!) why evil has an apple's chance in Eden.

Read on...

oakland vs. Denver

We've come a long way since the first game of the season, where we beat the Raiders by a score of 41 to 14. We've taken a decent lead in the AFC West, while the Raiders have the potential to finish worse that their 4-12 record of last year the last few years.

How bad have things gotten for the Raider Nation? Look for yourself! Saint is a class act, and you have to feel compassion for a guy whose football world is in total collapse. One to four days go by in between fanposts (none with recommendations), and the news just gets worse and worse (the admission that Javon Walker was a bust, and the Broncos were right / too much money spent on MeAngelo Hall / yes, Al Davis really is the cause of the franchise deathof the Raiders).

In the meantime, while not in the La La Land of MHR stalwarts Zappa and Mike Clark heading to 13-3, the Broncos are very likely heading to the playoffs this year, and not as some wildcard team.

Yep. Things look really nice from over here in MileHighReport.com Land. And while I pick Denver to win this game in a big way, no good coach would look at the match-up and call this a gimee. No really. There are some match-up issues to look at. (C'mon folks. I'm trying to keep a straight face).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

There are a lot of match-ups to consider in this game. Some are scheme related, and some are player related. The most important ones in my estimation are below.

The Oakland Run Game vs. the Denver Run Defense

Yes, Denver run defense is improving. Despite missing 100% of the LB starters, Denver fought of Atlanta's elite run attack. Is the run defense coming together, or did we just have a couple of good games? How much should we be concerned with the Oakland attack?

Jeff Legwold at the Rocky Mountain News gives this terrific insight:

Despite all the Raiders' problems, and they are many, they still are the 10th-ranked rushing team in the NFL. And that's despite their No. 1 pick in the 2008 draft, Darren McFadden, having missed three games because of injury and Justin Fargas, their leading rusher, having missed two.

McFadden has the Raiders' only 100-yard rushing game of the season, 164 against the Chiefs in September. But with Fargas, McFadden and Michael Bush, Oakland can pound away at a defense if motivated to do so.

Given the Raiders' troubles at quarterback and in their passing game - it's last in the league - if they are going to move the ball Sunday, they will have to lean on those backs.

The Broncos are coming off a quality outing against the run-heavy Falcons, limiting Michael Turner to 81 yards and Atlanta to only 3.3 yards per carry overall. They did it with quality play up front, which enabled their linebackers to flow to the ball.

Legwold makes an excellent argument that the Oakland running attack is nothing to laugh at. Whle they may rank 10th, they rank that low with the consideration that they have had their share of injuries. I'll go a step further.

Denver's one gap defense is a work in progress, but it is not the kind of defense you want against against the zone block system that Oakland runs. That's more cause for concern in an otherwise "easy" looking game.

The good news? Atlanta only recently parted ways with the zone block running system, and much of their offensive line and running style still retains major elements of the zone block, and the Denver Defense did just fine. Consider also that the ATL run attack is just plain better that Oak's.

My point is that we look good stopping the run, but not "comfortably" good. Score this match-up for Denver, but with the caveat that there could be some disturbing undertones.

The Oakland Pass Game versus the Denver Pass Defense

Oakland has the worst pass game in the League. Champ Bailey is questionable for this game. My (lowly, humble) advice to Denver? Sit Champ. Let him rest and repair. No need to risk Superman against the Smurfs. As ancient and awful as the vertical pass system is, and as poor as Oakland runs it, we'll be just fine with Bly and company.

Denver's Air Force versus the Oakland Pass Defense

If you are like me, and you don't like the mainstream sports media, you're in good company. But let's give credit where credit is due. The Rocky Mountain News does a great job, and they're good friends of MHR. Writer Lee Rasizer drops by to chat with Guru here at MHR, and writer Jeff Legwold puts up solid pieces at RMN as well.

Again, from Jeff Legwold:

The previous time these teams met - to open the regular season - the Broncos sent Royal after Raiders cornerback DeAngelo Hall, in Jay Cutler's words, "time after time."

Royal came away with 146 yards on nine catches in his first regular-season NFL game.

The Raiders since have jettisoned Hall, and with Nnamdi Asomugha likely to get Brandon Marshall much of the time, that would leave Royal working against Routt.

Routt has plenty of speed - he was timed in the low 4.3 seconds in his 40-yard dash at the 2005 scouting combine - and is a little bigger than Royal. But Royal has shown the ability to consistently make himself some space against man-to-man coverage.

Again, I'll go a step further. As of this writing, Nnamdi Asomugha is listed as questionable for this game. If you like Jeff's take on the match-up, imagine how much sweeter it is without Asomugha in the line-up.

Denver's Ground Forces against the Oakland Run Defense

Ten little nine little eight little running backs, seven little six little five little running backs...

Mow down the Denver running backs. Go ahead. Stick them all on injured reserve. Despite Mike Shanahan's constant admonition that you just can't plug anyone into the RB spot with the high powered Denver zone block, it's getting harder to believe. Need proof? Denver lost starting RBs before the season began (injury, off field behavior, etc), and lost the entire string behind them as the season wore on.

No problem. Denver brings in a cell phone saleseman, a player from another position, and some guy nobody has heard of before, and Denver rips the heart out of Atlanta.

Now that Denver seems (we hope) to have reverted back to running and west coast play (over the pass heavy version of the spread offense they've been using), I'm confident that few teams can stop the Broncos in the run.

Match-ups by Ranking

Denver on Offense -

Denver run Off (18th) versus Oakland run Def (30th)

Denver pass Off (3rd) versus Oakland pass Def (12th)

Denver Off yards (3rd) versus Oakland yards defensed (25th)

Denver Off Pts (8th) versus Oakland Pts allowed (28th)

Denver on Defense -

Denver run Def (26th) versus Oakland run Off (10th)

Denver pass Def (29th) versus Oakland pass Off (32nd)

Denver yards defensed (29th) versus Oakland Off yards (30th)

Denver Pts allowed (27th) versus Oakland Off Pts (32nd)

The Bottom Line

Denver is getting their act together in playcalling, and the young guys are stepping up where veteran free agents have disappointed. The team is on the right track, but still young and still (despite a great outing of rookies against Atlanta) a team that will make mistakes.

Oakland? Frankly, this looks like a team playing without heart. For this rivalry to heat up again, the NFL may have to step in and force an ownership move. Al Davis is a sick man, and both his wife and daughter should inspire little confidence given previous issues discussed at MHR in the past.

The players won't treat this game as a rivalry (that's something that fans do, and they project it on the team). Only one person on the field has strong personal feelings about this game. Mike Shanahan will never forget how Al Davis treated him, and will continue to beat the Raiders, and yes, probably run up the score.

Denver by a Mile High.

Denver in the Driver's Seat (gunning for a high seed?)

hoosierteacher — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 20:57:58 -0000

Just how important was the win by Denver on Sunday in Atlanta? Perhaps more important than one might realize on first glance.

First, while Denver may appear to be an "on again / off again" team, they have managed to find themselves ranked fourth in the AFC. Only TENN, PITT, and the NYJ's rank ahead of Denver in the conference.

Still not impressed? How about this number: While TENN is clearly out in front in the AFC, PITT and NYJ are only one game ahead of Denver. That's right. Denver, somehow, is only a game out of second place in the AFC. That's a first round bye in the playoffs baby.

Now let's not get ahead of ourselves. Denver is a banged up team, and not terribly consistent. On the other hand, there's a lot of positives, and I want to share them with you.

Read on...

First, let's be honest. Denver doesn't have a Superbowl caliber team yet. Could Denver fire up the rest of the season and get it done? It's possible, but not likely. However, the road to the playoffs and glory is not as impossible as it once looked. A big part of the reason is that while Denver doesn't look so hot, neither does the rest of the League.

Denver ranks fourth in the AFC. If Denver was in the NFC, they would have a better record than all but 3 teams. The previously dominating teams like NE and INDY have been grounded this year, and the League (and the conference) are up for grabs.

Before the season started, most of us would have penciled in ATL as an easy win. ATL has played with a lot of heart, and until meeting Denver, was undefeated at home. But despite the total attrition of the RB position, Denver cobbled together a former Bronco (who was selling cellphones in the Aurora Mall) and a rookie named Larsen (who played offense, defense, and STs, the first time a rookie has started on three units for a team since the AFL merger). More importantly, they scrapped the spread offense and went back to running the ball and executing short, West Coast style passes.

If Denver continues to run the ball and to allow Cutler to make less throws (which makes the receivers' job easier), Denver can finish out this season pretty strong. Denver will also get some players back (Champ Bailey) and should improve as the season goes on.

Denver has a two game lead over SD. Denver plays:

OAK at home (should be a win) while SD plays IND at home (tricky).
at the NYJ's (tricky) while SD plays ATL at home (tricky)
KC at home (should be a win) while SD plays OAK at home (should be a win)
DEN at CAR (doesn't look good), SD plays at KC (and no matter how bad KC is, they play well at home, especially late in the year).
Denver has Buf at home (tricky, but at least it's a home game) while SD goes to TB (tricky).
DEN at SD (The crown jewel game).

At worst, I see Denver and SD going through the next four games with the same record, leaving Denver with a 2 game lead when the final game of the season os played. At best, Denver could very well widen the lead when one considers the remaining schedule.

Based on the above points then, I think it is reasonable to say that Denver is not only in the driver's seat for a playoff spot, but all of a sudden finds themselves playing for a high seed. Let's look at the remaining schedule for the two teams we can likely catch (TENN isn't one of them).

NYJ's

At TENN (OUCH!)
Home against Denver (Denver controls it's own destiny)
AT SF (should win)
Home against BUF (tricky)
AT SEA (should win)
MIA at home (Could be tricky)

PITT

Home against CIN (should win)
At NE (tricky)
Home against DAL (tricky)
At BAL (could be tricky)
At TENN (OUCH!)
Home against CLE (should win).

Given Pittsburgh's difficult schedule down the stretch, Denver may very easily pass them for the third seed. The most important game left on the schedule may not be against SD after all! The most important game may very well be against the NYJs, which has implications for propelling Denver into the second seed in the AFC.

Chew on that one for awhile!

MHR Chalk Talk -- Week 11 - Denver at Atlanta

hoosierteacher — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 15:01:40 -0000

YOUR SOURCE FOR THE VERY BEST

IN DENVER BRONCO PRE-GAME ANALYSIS

MILEHIGHREPORT.COM

First, let's take a look at where Denver is, and where Denver is going. There are several ways to evaluate a team. Looking at Denver this year, one can find many areas of positives and negatives.

The average view:

The Broncos rank 15 of 32 teams in the NFL. They are the seventh ranked team in the AFC. If the playoffs were held today, Denver would be the fourth seed, and play at home against a wildcard team with a better record (Baltimore). All in all, an average team with a likely chance of going to the playoffs and being eliminated early.

The bad view:

Denver is a team with injuries and IRs, and wasn't doing so well with it's starters anyway. According to MHR's injury report as of 11-11-08, the following players are doubtful (Webster), questionable (N. Jackson, McCree, S. Young, C. Bailey), and out (Nalen, Sheppard, Pittman, Russell, Ramsey, Torain, Alridge, A. Hall, B. Bailey) going into the next game.

The happy view:

Denver leads the AFC West, and can still go 11-4 (that is, if you live in La La Land).

But there is a fourth view. Forgive me for calling it the "realist" view, since everybody thinks their own view is the realistic view (including me). In this view, the team is (unfortunately) as average as it looks. However, it is also improving at a greater rate than most observers might think. I hope to persuade some folks that Denver was a bad team last year, is average this year, and will be great next year. The best news is that It was supposed to be this way from the start. That's right. What we are seeing is part of a bigger plan, and a strategic masterstroke.

Let's unfold the mystery of the Denver "vanilla" defense, the mystery of the offensive playcalling, and the mystery of Denver's future. I think Shanahan's brilliance will be made clear. I'll also be joined by MHR member (and grandparent of a new baby boy) Firstfan, who shared some great thoughts on the trench fight for the upcoming game, and his comments are at the heart of much of the analysis.

Read on...

Denver first mystified a lot of fans with the reloading season this year. Despite a terrible '07 defense, the front office focused attention on the offense.

They picked up left offensive tackle Ryan Clady in the first round. Thanks to Clady, QB Cutler remains on his feet game after game. This is a rookie LT who hasn't allowed a sack yet. Clady will be a star at LT for years to come.

Next, Denver picked up Eddie Royal at WR. He is ranked (along with a very young Brandon Marshall) in the top ten of NFL receivers for yards gained, and has the longest reception of any WR in the League this year. No one will forget how bad he made Meangelo Hall look in the MNF Raiders game.

Next, the team went for yet another offensive lineman (Lichtensteiger) and picked up another (Wiegmann) from the Chiefs to solidify the OL. Ryan Harris (at RT) was presumed ready by the powers that be to be ready for the '08 season in a big way, and he didn't let anyone down.

Finally, Denver picked up a defensive player (Williams) with the fourth pick, perhaps expecting the need to trade either Foxworth or Paymah as the year went on. The move to unload a CB was predicted at MHR by several sharp members, and it happened.

Next, Denver went for their fourth offensive player in the first five picks, Torain. Fans waited for Torain's start date after he went down with an injury in the pre-season, and the excitement built as multiple Denver RBs succumbed to injuries. During the Cleveland game, the crossing guard was down, the lights were flashing, the cars were backed up, and... and there was no train coming. Torain went on IR after being injured again.

Same story with the next pick, a DT that was on IR and had nothing for the team in '08.

Larsen came in as a potential LB, but was designated as a FB! Then came Barrett, a safety that fans have been clamoring for despite his 7th round pick status. Last (but not least), Denver got Hillis at FB, who has not only proved himself to be an extraordinary receiver out of the backfield, but a good RB in a pinch.

My point? In a year where we had a good offense to move forward with (and a terrible defense), Denver built its offense first and foremost. The defense was staffed with less expensive options (such as injury prone Boss Bailey and injury risk DRob). In other words, the team wasn't yet committed to building the defense. Denver put in a teaching type of coach to work with the defense, and then played a very vanilla defense designed to be simplistic. As time has gone on, the team has gone through several looks, including both the 4-3 and 3-4 formations, as well as several scheme looks (such as the "Coyer show blitz" and the "Lebeau zone blitz").

Is it possible that Denver is using '08 to test out players, and to determine areas to target in the upcoming reloading season for key positions? Denver is youthful and vibrant at every position on offense, and not much more can be done to build up the offense anymore. In the meantime, the front office can focus the upcoming reloading season on the defense, and they have the picks and the cap space to do some serious damage this year.

As MHR member Steve O' wisely points out, '09 will be a windfall for Denver in terms of cap space and draft picks. With a crop of top tier talent on the defense next year from the draft, a teaching coach, and an actual system (unknown to all but Slowik), Denver can catch several teams off guard next year.

Even the offense plays into this plan. Playing the spread offense is giving Cutler two years of passing experience crammed into one. The receivers, TEs, and OL are getting similar experience. All that's left is to plug in a RB or two next year, and the offense is built like any other elite football team. Is the current type of spread offense going to win us a lot of games? No. Is it going to prepare the team to be an efficient program going into next year, when the defense is built up and the team gets their RBs back?

It just looks to me like Denver is building towards a 2009 powerhouse, and all of the questionable moves this year are geared towards '09 and not '08.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Denver has a tough fight on its hands this week.

Atlanta is a team that was crawling with tragedy for their fans. A QB that goes to prison, a coach that quits on the team, and the loss of several key players. No problem. Atlanta brings in another coach, another QB, and plays tough, sound football. To answer our questions, Dave the Falconer stopped by MHR and taught us about a team that most of us would have chalked in as a "win" before the season started. Instead, Atlanta has risen above their issues, and become a force to be respected.

MHR member (and MHR University doctoral student) FirstFan has done some terrific opposition research, and it deserves to be quoted verbatim.

ATL, on the defensive side of the trenches:

This will be the smallest team our Offensive Line has faced this year. They appear to fit the historical Bronco profile: smallish, fast and agile. They play a traditional 4-3.

The defensive front seven of Atlanta is led by Right End #55 John Abraham. Abraham has 10 sacks thus far in 9 games. He is 6’4” and 263 lbs and in his 9^th year. Next to Abraham at R-DT is #95 Jonathan Babineaux who is small for a DT at 6’2” and 284. He is 4^th year player. The Left Defensive Tackle is the largest man on the entire front seven (including all back-ups) ; the 12 year #90 6’2” 345 lb. Grady Jackson. Jackson has been hampered by a nagging knee injury and was listed as Questionable for NO and I have been unable to determine if he played or not, but at best case he will be slowed. If he is unable to go he is backed up by fourth year man Jason Jefferson who is 6’1” and 295 lbs. On the Left End they have 6’6” 282 lb. Jamal Anderson. Anderson is a second year player.

Some Atlanta fans consider their line backing core to be the strength of the defense. I doubt this. The linebackers are anchored by rookie Curtis Lofton #50. Lofton is 6’0” and 248 lbs and has recorded 47 tackles and one sack thus far in 2008. At LOLB they have 4^th year veteran Michael Boley. Boley is 6’3’ and 223. Last week on the right side they started 11 year veteran Keith Brooking. Brooking is 6’2” and 241lbs. I think Atlanta has good linebackers, but not great. As boydy2669 pointed out on another thread, a key match up will be Abraham v Clady (or our Zone Block scheme).

Abraham is now listed as probable against Denver.

ATL, on the offensive side of the trenches (again research by FirstFan):

The offense of Atlanta has abandoned the Zone Block and returned to a traditional man-on-man. Their starting LT (Sam Baker - 6'5" 312 lbs.) is sort of the equivalent of Clady. He is a rookie who has not only cracked the starting line-up but has been the main bodyguard for Matt Ryan. He is out, perhaps for the year. He had some sort of back surgery last week and he also has a hip issue. They have so little faith in his back-up (Quinn Ojinnaka, 6’5” 305lbs.) that they brought over Todd Weiner from the Right Tackle spot to fill in for Baker last week against NO. Weiner is nursing a sore knee. This could mean Doom could have a good game and disrupt all sorts of things in the Atlanta Backfield including Ryan. The Left guard is second year man Justin Blaylock who is 6’4” and 333 and the largest man on the O-Line. The center, Todd McClure, a ten year veteran, is also banged up. He is 6’1” and 301 lbs. and has had a bad back. He was listed as Questionable against NO but once again I have been unable to tell if he played and how fast he may be healing. If McClure cannot go he is backed up by Alex Stepovitch who is 6’4” and 296 lbs. and a 5^th year career back up. At Right Guard is 6’5”308 lb. Harvey Dahl out of the University of Nevada Reno. He is a second year man. Starting at Right Tackle is a player originally signed by the Broncos, Tyson Clabo. Clabo is 6’6” 332 and is in his third year.

They only have two tight ends on the team and I had to do an NFL wide search for the back-up. He is a guy names Martrez Milner. The starter is 5^th year veteran Ben Harstock who is 6’4” and 264. Harstock previously played for the Colts and the Titans. We will not be facing the very large, fast, mobile, excellent pass-catchers we are used to seeing in the AFC West.

FirstFan raises some great points. ATL is a team that has some injury issues on the offensive line. They also have some concerns on the defensive line. Looking at these two areas, one might consider ATL to be in big trouble. There's more optimism for Denver fans looking at the Special Teams, as First Fan does:

The punter is Michael Kroenen who has a horrible average (39.3 yds.)and a worse net average (36.3).

The punt returner is Adam Jennings who has a very weak punt return average6.6 yds).

Of course we all know Elam is a great kicker, but not a particularly long kick-off man.

All of this could add up to good field position for the Broncos. If we can get on the board early and force Ryan to pass we stand a good chance of winning. We must avoid turnovers. On the other hand, if Atlanta jumps out to an early lead they can rely on their #1 ranked rushing offense (163.4 yds/game) to dominate the clock and wear down our defense.

Let's compare Offensive League rankings:

Points - DEN 9th / ATL 13th
Yards - DEN 2nd / ATL 6th
Pass yards - DEN 3rd / ATL 19th
Rush yards - DEN 18th / ATL 2nd

And now the Defenses:

Points - DEN 28th / ATL 9th
Yards - DEN 29th / ATL 23rd
Pass - DEN 28th / ATL 22nd
Rush - DEN 27th / ATL 21st

What we find is that Denver beats ATL in 3 out of four categories on offense, and ATL beats DEN in all four categories. Was strength of schedule a factor in those stats? Maybe, maybe not. Denver had beaten some good and bad teams, and lost to some good and bad teams. ATL has beaten a lot of terrible teams, but the losses have all been to good teams. To me, this means ATL is a more consistent team.

Denver has beaten - oak, sd, no, tb, cle.

Denver has lost to - kc, jax, ne, mia

ATL has beaten - det, kc, gb, chi, oak, and no.

ATL has lost to - tb, car, phi.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This game looks very tight to me. A few days ago, I was certain of an ATL win. But the deeper I look, the tougher the call. ATL hasn't beaten any tough teams, but they show great consistency. Denver is decimated with injuries, particularly at RB. But they are bringing back Tatum Bell. While not a fan favorite, he ran for 921 yards in 2005, and 1,025 in 2006 (and in a committee system)! On the other hand, you never know which Denver team is going to show up. And whichever team does show up is going to have to face an effective Atlanta running game.

Keys to the game:

Denver

Limit turnovers
An early lead forces ATL to pass more than they want to
WIn the field position battle on STs

Atlanta

Hit Denver hard with the running game
Keep the game close (avoid a shootout)
Limit Cutler with zones instead of man coverages

This game has me really torn. The good news is that I was ready to pick ATL a few days ago, and I have moved away from that prediction somewhat. The bad news is that I'm still not sold on a Denver win. I still need a couple of days to figure this one out, and will probably wait until the very last minute to make my pick.

If Denver wins this game, it will help us greatly in the race against SD. SD faces PITT this week, and should lose. KC's failed 2 pt conversion at the end of their game means SD has the advantage in tie break if we don't beat SD at the end of the year and are tied with them in the division. We need to be 2 games ahead of SD, or we need to beat SD at the end of the year for our best shot at the division playoff slot. This would be a terrific week to get a good lead.

Thanks again to Firstfan, who deserves a lot of praise for having more chalk dust on his hands at the end of this week's Chalk Talk than I do!

A Special Open Thread (dedicated to Firstfan)

hoosierteacher — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 22:18:20 -0000

While working over the internet with MHR member (and MHR University doctoral student) Firstfan, I received the good news that he (and his wife, known with affection as Ole Blister) are the grandparents of a new baby boy.

Firstfan says that mother and father and baby are all doing well.

Please join the MHR Staff in congratulating Firstfan. And because we all care about each other, use this as an open thread to discuss the following:

Any good news in your neck of the woods, and
Any personal concerns the community can wish you well on.

Have a terrific week as we get ready to roll into the Falcon's house with the Blue and Orange Army!

Which Teams a Broncos Fan Should Cheer For (week ten)

hoosierteacher — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 09:36:27 -0000

So you're sitting there wondering which game to watch, and Denver isn't available. Which team do you cheer for if you want the outcome to help Denver? No problem; MileHighReport.com has you covered.

Remember, this has nothing to do with which teams we like or hate. It is purely based on what outcomes best position Denver for the playoffs, and a good seeding once there.

Let's feed the schedule into MHR's Super Computer and see what results we get...

We've recalibrated the supercomputer for a new algorithm. Based on the thought that DEN must win the division (a wild card for the AFC West looks very improbable), there are different priorities for which teams we need to win. Denver's win over Cleveland was great, and we need for SD to be upset by KC. We lead the division, even with a SD win, but we need as much distance between our teams as possible.

NO at atl (1.7) - Need a NO win for the strength of sched tie-break.

sea at MIA (2.4) - While this is AFC over NFC, we need MIA to win for strength of sched tie-break.

buf at NE (2.3) - We want the team ranked lower in opposing AFC divisions to knock off team ranked higher for an easier playoff sched.

stl at NYJ (2.2) - see sea at MIA above.

gb at MIN (1) - Root for the lesser ranked NFC team.

bal at HOU (2) - Root for the lesser ranked AFC team.

ten at CHI (2.7) - Root for the NFC over the AFC, and for conference leading tenn to have a difficult road to the first seed.

JAX at det (2.4) - see sea at MIA above.

CAR at oak (4) - Keep the AFC West rivals off our back.

IND at pit (2) - Root for the lesser ranked AFC team.

KC at sd (4.99) - Game of the week (next to the Broncos beating CLE). Root hard against sd from here on out.

nyg at PHI (1) - Root for the lesser NFC team.

SF at ari (2) - Root for the lesser AFC team.

Poll

When we play SD at the end of the season...

We'll have enough of a lead in the playoff race to rest our players (strong lead - rest players)

45 votes

We'll be tied with SD in the playoff race, and need the win (tie, advantage SD - must win)

70 votes

We'll be tied with SD, but will still lead SD for the division with tie breaks to get to the playoffs and can rest players (tie, advantage DEN - rest players)

39 votes

We'll fall behind SD by that point in the season; game is either a must win or too late to win

42 votes

196 votes | Poll has closed

Denver on the Razor's Edge

hoosierteacher — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 23:35:47 -0000

As we all know, Denver leads the AFC West. With a loss against Cleveland, every team in the AFC West would have had a losing record. Here's what I'm driving at.

While Denver can get in the playoffs by leading the division, it is critical that they win the division. If SD can somehow creep up on Denver and take the division, Denver has almost zero chance for a playoff appearance as a wildcard.

Here's the current Division leaders (in order of ranking):

TENN (ACS)
PITT (ACN)
BUF (ACE)
DEN (ACW)

The current Wild Card Teams (by NFL Tie Break) are:

Let's say SD catches us. We are now in a race for a wildcard position. In such a case, 3 teams have a better record than us in that race (we are at .556; BAL, NE, and NYJ all are at .625. Worse, NE owns the head to head against us).

In other words, we drop from 4th seed in the playoffs out of six seeds, to 8th place (2 teams out of the playoff picture). Additionaly, two teams (MIA and JAX) would be close enough to our record to beat us with a head to head tie break.

Bottom line: Denver must stay ahead of SD to make the playoffs. If they do this, they play against a wild card team in the first round, but it's a home game. If SD slips past us, we likely don't come anywhere close to a playoff berth.

Need some added incentive? Pork Chop Bill Williamson, anti-Bronco "writer" for ESPN just wrote a piece about why the Chargers will win our division. He doesn't seem to internalize the fact that Denver has the better record (even before the Thursday night victory over CLE), and that Denver has already beaten SD once. Sure we have mutiple injuries, but even so we STILL have a better record than SD.

And no; Pork Chop doesn't get a link to his ridiculous story.

By the way, while the odds are very much against the Chiefs, and we don't like 'em, find it in your blue and orange hearts to cheer for KC to beat SD this week. It would help Denver a lot, and I'll bet most of us dislike SD much more than KC anyway.

Poll

Does Denver win the AFC West this year?

Yes

46 votes

No

3 votes

I don't know

15 votes

I'm a troll, and just want to vote against Denver

1 votes

65 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk -- Week 10 - Denver at Cleveland

hoosierteacher — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 18:08:20 -0000

YOUR SOURCE FOR THE VERY BEST

IN DENVER BRONCO PRE-GAME ANALYSIS

MILEHIGHREPORT.COM

Check Out DawgsByNature for all things Cleveland Browns!

Shake it off Denver fans! Denver lost to two good teams (NE and JAX) and has lost two games to underdogs (MIA and KC). Still, they have beaten good teams like TB and NO, while beating divsion rivals SD and OAK.

Already, members of the Blue and Orange Faithful are floating ideas of dropping the head coach, giving up on the season, or fighting with outher fans over trivial matters. We don't expect teams to fall apart when the going gets tough, and I expect fans to buck up too!

Where are we? 4-4. With that ugly record we still find ourselves where it matters - at the head of the division. All that matters is getting to the post season. The slate gets wiped clean, and every team there is in a single elimination tournament for glory. Do I think we have a shot at SB glory? No, of course not. That's not the point though. This team is rebuilding (like it or not), and a playoff shot would be valuable experience for a young team learning to play together as a team.

This game against the Brown presents th team with many interesting issues. Let's explore them together, and see why this game is worth watching...

Which team will show up Thursday? Will it be the team that had Royal making a 95 yard return, featured Hillis making multiple catches and yards as a secret FB weapon, and displayed a deep pass for a (onverruled) TD, or will it be the team that continues to turnover the ball, gained under 15 yards in rushing, and blew a game that most fans would have expected to be a win?

Here is what you should be watching and considering going into the game.

Denver's RB situation could go either way

Pittman and Hall are both on injured reserve for the season. Pittman has been steady as a power RB, and Hall (despite a couple of terrible fumbles) provided depth and a weapon for returns.

Now the team must rely on Torain and Young. Young is injury prone, and hasn't played much for Denver lately, so much of the job is up to Torain.

Some fans may worry about Torain's abilities. He carried the ball three times and got only one yard against MIA in his first game since college. He has also spent the last several weeks recovering from an elbow injury. I'm not worried.

First, against conventional wisdom, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillis gets some carries as a halfback. He can catch out of the backfield on screens, but he can also run downfield for catches. Shanahan made a comment that he still needs to work on blocking, but this may indicate that Hillis is more ready to run the ball and catch it than to block. Also, Hillis got a taste of experience, but not enough to showcase what talent he has. If you've been waiting for the train to arrive, this is the game to watch. MIA's game was just an easing in period.

B. Williamson sneaks in a decent article at ESPN (no, really) about the limited, but not all bad possibilities in the free agent market if Torain doesn't work out:

Another reason Torain is being asked to produce is because there aren't many running backs remaining on the open market. So help isn't necessarily on the way. Former Denver running backs highlight the list of available rushers. They include Tatum Bell, Mike Bell and Ron Dayne. Other running backs available are Anthony Thomas, Vernand Morency and Wali Lundy. Denver has visited with some of those players in the past. Morency visited Denver a few weeks ago. The team also could promote running back P.J. Pope from the practice squad.

The Browns should have issues in passing and catching

The Browns did something incredibly foolish in my opinion. They switched QBs in a short week. A QB switch is a move to be made during a bye week, or a long week (such as after a Thu game). But in a short week?

WR Jurevicius is out for the season with a staph infection to the knee. How is the rest of the pass offense doing?

From the Akron Beacon Journal:

Quarterback Derek Anderson made an outstanding play to avoid the rush and to find Edwards deep down the middle. Edwards dropped it...

Late in the game, fans were chanting for Brady Quinn, as if Anderson didn't throw a perfect pass that easily could have led to a game-changing play. The chant was predictable, and it now appears the Browns are going to give Quinn a chance Thursday...

Anderson's main receiver has a league-high 13 dropped passes. Coach Romeo Crennel basically said Monday that if he had another receiver worth squadoosh, he would play him instead of Edwards.

He doesn't — unless someone is seeing something in Syndric Steptoe and Steve Sanders that I'm not. Anderson's second receiver? Donte' Stallworth was on the inactive list.

Kellen Winslow had five catches but also ranted and gesticulated after every little block (a tight end is supposed to block, right?)

The offensive line had a tough time with the Ravens' defense, especially when guard Eric Steinbach left with a rib injury.

I spent a year in Akron where I experienced Browns fans firsthand. Some things I liked (a passion for the team). But one thing I couldn't stand was there desire to throw QBs overboard. In the year I was in Ohio, Cleveland's offensive line couldn't protect their QB at all, but the locals blamed the QB for everything that went wrong. They were yelling for a change then, and doing it now. I expect Quinn will get the same, sorry treatment.

Somehow, someway, Denver's defense is improving

You can watch a game for purely the wins and losses. If you want to be analytical, you also need to watch for the good and the bad, as well as trends. Something to like is the recent improvements on defense.

Sure, Denver's defense has been trying to defend a short field do to interceptions and fumbles. But in terms of pure yards given up, the defense has been terrible. They overpursue, don't tackle, and don't get pressure on opposing QBs. But the last couple of games have shown improvements.

The RMN makes this observation:

Expectations weren't high for the Broncos defense, with All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey out because of an injury, but until Miami's final eight-minute-plus scoring drive Sunday, Denver's defense kept the Broncos in the game, while the offense kept giving it away.

Miami scored 13 points off Denver turnovers, all generated by quarterback Jay Cutler's interceptions.

Cutler threw interceptions on two of the Broncos' first three drives, helping put the Broncos in a 13-0 hole 10 minutes into the game...

But the Broncos defense, which fast was becoming a leaguewide joke, curtailed the damage, holding the Dolphins to 75 rushing yards and 4-of-14 third-down conversions, giving Denver a fighting chance until the final quarter.

Denver has a new star

Hillis went over 100 yards recieving for a RB (fullback or halfback), something done by Floyd Little twice and Bobby Anderson once in Denver's history. Wow!

Hillis led all Broncos receivers in the game against MIA, and showed me (as I pointed out earlier) that we are fine at RB if injuries are lack of production continue.

The bottom line

Ok, Denver has lost four of the last five games after a very enjoyable start to the season. Even after the bye week, Denver remains banged up and bloodied. Why should Denver win this away game?

I'll take a short week of preparation by Shanahan over the same time period for Crennel.
While Denver seems to be teetering on the edge, the Browns are in an all out collapse.
Promoting your number two QB in a 3 day prep week? No Way!
Cutler is in a funk with INTs. It's a part of development. He'll recover. Quinn doesn't even have Cutler's experience yet, and he certainly doesn't have Cutler's O-Line or recievers (I'll credit CLE for Winslow at TE)
Denver's defense is starting to gell. The Browns defense showed a total implosion against the Ravens.

This is a key game for Denver for several reasons. They either move forward with a winning record, or a losing record. They'll also get another bye (in effect) by being able to rest until the following week. This is also a game that Denver should win, so a loss would be devestating, but a win will help the team refocus and look ahead.

I consider this game the gut check. The guys have a great opportunity to make their stand Thur night in front of a national audience an audience of the few people with the NFL Network. It's a chance to pocket a win, and go into a semi-bye week with a good attitude, and a lot of time to prepare and heal up for the rest of the season. This could be a turning point for a young team, but it's up to them which way it will turn.