SB Nation User Blog: horn_in_france

Scoring margin wins championships?

horn_in_france — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:36:55 -0000

Defense wins championships. That's the old adage, provided you put up a few more points than you give up.

I was recently thinking about the prolific 2005 Texas team that set an NCAA record for points scored. We also had a good defense that limited the number of points allowed. Texas was #1 in scoring offense at 50.2 ppg and #8 in scoring defense at 16.4 ppg. I decided to break out some serious math skills (a.k.a. subtraction) and look at scoring margin or margin of victory.

In 2005, Texas was #1 with an average margin of victory of 33.8 ppg. #2 was USC at 26.3 ppg.

The BCS had it right for the final game, and #1 played #2 and #1 won.

I decided to look at seasons since 2004 to look if scoring margin was as clear a signal as it was in 2005. (All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com)

All rank #s below represent scoring margin/margin of victory

2004

BCS title game: #3 USC (25.2) beat #10 OU (18.0)
#1 Louisville (30.1), #2 Utah (25.8)
#11 Texas (17.4)

2006

BCS title game: #12 Florida (16.2) over #4 tOSU (21.8)
#1 Hawaii (22.8), #2 Boise State (22.1), #3 BYU (22.1)
#7 Texas (21.1)

2007

BCS title game: #33 LSU (6.7) over #16 tOSU (13.7)
Florida #1 (30.7)
Texas #6 (23.6)

2008

BCS title game: Florida #4 (23.4) over OU #6 (21.2)
Texas #1 (29.0)
Boise State #2 (26.7), TCU #4 (26.3), #5 Cincinnati (21.5)

Looking back at the last five years of BCS championship games:

2004, 2005 and 2008 all ended with the team with the highest scoring margin as the winner of the BCS title game.

A top scoring margin team from the Big 12, SEC, Pac-10 and Big-10 frequently earns a trip to the BCS title game - exceptions are #1 Texas in 2008 (.0128) and #1 Florida in 2007. Lesser conferences need not apply.

4 of the 10 participants were ranked higher than 6th in scoring margin #10 OU, #12 Florida, #33 LSU, #16 tOSU and 2 of those teams won the game. tOSU lost both of those games.

-2009

It currently looks like the BCS championship game could very well pit two top teams in terms of scoring margin, through last weekend:

#1 Texas              29
#2 Boise State    26.7
#3 TCU                 26.3
#4 Florida             23.4
#5 Cincinnati       21.5
#6 Oklahoma      21.2
#7 Alabama         20

#6 Oklahoma proves that you can win with a lot of "style points" and still not crack the AP top 25.

Texas could finish #1 in scoring margin for the third time in five years, though none of us will care unless we win the game on Jan 7th, 2010

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Here's a somewhat related post from a few weeks back - The State of... the BCS? A Discussion on Margin of Victory As Part of the Computers.

For anyone needing a calendar feed for this fall's games

horn_in_france — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:30:48 -0000

Since I didn't find and other posts with respect to this season's calendar feeds, I found this earlier today.

The following is link to an iCal feed (for your Google Calendar, iCal and others) that will keep your calendar up to date with Longhorn Football games this fall.

webcal://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/tth/ical.ics

A few other feeds are available from here:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/teams/tth

Now, why we are "tth" I haven't a clue...

N.C.A.A. - No Computers Apparently Allowed

horn_in_france — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:55:30 -0000

While I hadn't spent a lot of time wondering what coaches are allowed to use during games, this NYT article details the technological prohibitions of the NCAA. It also contrasts this with the NFL and high schools.

New York Times: N.C.A.A. Is Slower to Embrace Technology

A few lines from the article:

"Bylaw 1-4-9a prohibits football coaches from using “motion pictures, any type of film, facsimile machines, videotapes, photographs, writing-transmission machines and computers” to make decisions during a game or between periods."

And one for the blog-o-sphere:

"The organization has also attempted to limit blogging by reporters during sporting events."

With all the talk about Scott, what about Smash?

horn_in_france — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 11:01:25 -0000

I didn't see anything posted here, but I have heard from a reputable source that TMU is going to revoke its scholarship offer to Brian "Smash" Williams of the Dillon Panthers.

While this isn't entirely surprising, the Longhorns might want to give Williams another look, I have a source who say this charges against Smash are pretty bogus.

The news broke a few weeks ago that Brian had assaulted someone in a movie theater. And for anyone who saw the footage from the local Applebees, he didn't handle himself very well when ambushed by a journalist. However, my best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with a girl who was at that movie and said Brian took it easy on the punk kid who was taunting both he and his little sister with racial slurs. However, when TMU cites "questionable character" in their revocation, they guess it's pretty serious.

Personally, I think Smash looks a step slow, almost like he's an actor in his mid-twenties. But you can't deny the stats he has put up and the fact that he sorta lead his team win the state championship last year.

Smash definitely has liked Texas in the past. Before the emergence of TMU this season, Smash was quoted as a junior as saying, "Me and Mack Brown are going to get it on in Pasadena. Get my MNC championship on, get my Heisman on."

What do you guys think? Should Texas give him a shot?

The other thing that really creeps me out, is how much one of those TMU coaches looks like Rick Barnes.

Burnt Orange Planet - Where do you read your BON?

horn_in_france — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 12:26:02 -0000

I know there are a number of us who read from more than a few miles beyond the boundaries of the 40 Acres. As such, I'm curious to know where folks are getting their fix. Let us know where you are how you get your Longhorns football.

For the record, I'm in London and was in Paris (not TX) last year. In those two seasons 'away' I've been lucky enough to see every game live but one, mostly via a Slingbox kindly hosted by a friend back in Austin. In 2007 Texas is 0-2 in games I attended - yes, it's my fault, not the turnovers or failure on special teams.

Second question for those with a good answer: What's the weirdest place anyone has watched a Horns game? Not in person, like College Station or Starkville, MS, but remotely, like in an internet cafe in Myanmar.

Enhanced Coverage presented by Phillips

horn_in_france — Sun, 05 Nov 2006 02:01:27 -0000

Thanks Phillips, but...

Certainly would be better if they got rid of the TV timeouts as well, as it is, it's just more air time for the TBS crew. I'm a big fan of limiting the stoppages.

As it is, it just provides more opportunities for Charles Davis alternate between going hoarse or through puberty. During the TV timeouts we got scintillating interviews with Brian Brohm and Bill Callahan, and shots of the field from the endzone.

Actually, I'm happy to get a few minutes of the UT band at halftime, so it's not all bad...

WTF? A commercial for OU? (Run the ads for the universities in the game.)

Thanks, just kill the timeouts. TBS announcers are less fun than Sonic commericals.