SB Nation User Blog: houksyndrome

Pirate Pitching in 2010: A few average arms could really help us, seriously!

houksyndrome — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 07:12:10 -0000

I noticed that our ERA at the end of the year was 14th in the national league. This was surprising because Duke and Ohlendorf both pitched pretty well this year, while Maholm and Morton were both OK (Morton was pretty good, sub-4 ERA when you omit that disastrous 10ER performance at Wrigley). If 4 of our starters were OK, why is our team ERA still ranked 14th in the NL? I looked at our team pitching statistics after 159 games (so the last couple games are missing).

The first thing that jumped out at me is the number of innings pitched by guys who stink. When I sort our pitchers according to ERA and break them down into guys with ERAs above 5 and ERAs lower than 5. I find that guys with high ERAs pitched 421 innings for us this year; 30% of our innings were pitched by guys who stink. I compared these numbers with teams that have league average pitching staffs (like Colorado) and found that decent pitching staffs tend to have way less than 421 innings pitched by guys who stink - they tend to be around 200.

IP ER ERA

Innings by pitchers with ERA over 5: 421 282 6.06017192

Innings by pitchers with ERA under 5: 977 428 3.942681679

Totals: 1398 710 4.578019774

The biggest offenders were:

Karstens 105.2 IP, 5.37 ERA

Snell 80.2 IP, 5.36 ERA

Capps 54.1 IP, 5.8 ERA *These were especially costly, Capps cost us several games this season*

Hart 53.1 IP, 6.9 ERA

Vasquez 43.2 IP, 5.98 ERA

The unholy tetrad of Karstens, Snell, Hart and Vasques pitched 280 innings for us last year!

Let's look at the bright side, this means that we will probably be better next year. For example, I expect Dan McCutchen and Brad Lincoln to collectively eat up most of those 280 innings. Suppose McCutchen and Lincoln take up all 280 of those innings and have a 4.5 ERA (nothing spectacular, mind you, a very reasonable expectation). Suppose also, that Capps can get it together and put up a 3.8 ERA (again something he has done before). If all these highly plausible things happen then our collective staff ERA would be 4.24. This is also assuming that the collective production for the other members of the staff remains constant. A 4.24 ERA would be middle of the pack in the NL. A few other points are worth mentioning: 1. Morton could very well have a sub-4 ERA next season (if you omit that nightmare at Wrigley, then he had a sub-4 ERA this season). 2. Lincoln and McCutchen could do better than a 4.5 ERA. 3. Our defense was dramatically worse after the trades and if we don't do something to improve defensively at 2B then Maholm and Duke may give up a lot more runs next year, due to their tendencies to pitch to contact. I think our pitching staff can take a big step forward next year but we need to ensure that they have a competent defense working behind them and we may need to sign a reliever or two. One thing is clear, our collective ERA will improve dramatically if we cut out some of this deadwood (Karstens, Vasquez and Hart) and replace it with guys who are serviceable. The replacements don't have to be great, just serviceable. I think McCutchen and Lincoln can be serviceable next year. What are your thoughts?

THE END IS NIGH!

houksyndrome — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 05:54:10 -0000

THE END IS NIGH!

Given my Rorschach avatar, I couldn't help but post a link to the PBC blog morning updates when it is titled "The end is nigh".

Pedro Alvarez promoted!

houksyndrome — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 02:22:09 -0000

Pedro Alvarez has been promoted to Altoona, according to John Perotto. I don't see any coverage of it yet on the post gazette website, but I am assuming that Perotto has a reputable source. I must say I am VERY surprised about this promotion. Pedro has been striking out in 30% of his ABs all season. His power has improved steadily but a 30% K rate is a major red flag, just look at Jamie Romak's performance this season in AA. From what I have heard/read, Alvarez has had trouble with breaking stuff in the dirt (my own opinion is that it is probably in 2 strike situations when he is trying to protect the plate and be over-aggressive). He has also hit straight stuff a long way from what I have read. He has had a few monster, multi-HR games in the last week but his overall stats for June (or the last week for that matter) aren't that great. He tends to follow up his monster games with 0-4, 3K performances in which he also commits an error in the field. Hopefully he will be able to hack it at AA, but I can see this being a total disaster where he hits 0.180 the rest of the way a la Romak. I just don't think he is ready for AA pitching yet. I guess we are gonna find out.

Wishful thinking about Brooks Pounders

houksyndrome — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 07:48:31 -0000

When I first read Brooks Pounders profile, what I saw was a tall, somewhat overweight kid who has 4 decent pitches but doesn't really have the velocity that you would expect from someone with that frame. Something rang familiar about that description and then I realized that it sounds a bit like descriptions of Stephen Strasburg when he was coming out of high school. Here is one such description that I found on the internet:

So who is this guy and if he is so good why wasn’t he drafted out of high school? Currently Strasburg is listed at 6′4″ and 220 lbs. In high school, he was slightly shorter and about 50-60 lbs. heavier. His fastball barely touched 90 mph. San Diego pitching coach Rusty Filter saw something in him and insisted on having him in camp. In his freshman season, Filter but Strasburg on a conditioning regimen that included hot yoga and as a result, Strasburg shed 30 lbs. Not only that, his velocity began to creep up. By the time he was a sophomore, his fastball was consistently clocked at 97-99 mph with occasional touches of 100 and 101. Strasburg also possesses a plus-plus-plus slider at 81-84mph. He has a plus change that he uses infrequently and a plus curve in the 70s.

That description above is from mopupduty.com and they are describing Strasburg. A high school 6'4'' 270lb pitcher whose fastball is only 90mph sounds an awful lot like Brooks Pounders too doesn't it? Lets have Pounders do some "hot yoga", whatever that is. Maybe he'll be hitting 100mph in a couple of years.

Pirates draft 34 pitchers!

houksyndrome — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 19:38:00 -0000

Pirates draft 34 pitchers!

The draft is in the books. We drafted 34 pitchers! Just 17 position players. Will be very interesting to see which of these pitchers they can sign and where those guys go. Say we sign the best of our draftees, I wonder where our system now ranks in terms of pitching depth.

Different angle on McLouth deal

houksyndrome — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:46:07 -0000

There is much debate about (1) whether this deal was a salary dump and part of the 18 year pattern of trading our only good players etc. and (2) whether the guys we got back were good enough to justify trading Nate, what kind of players do they project into etc. One thing that hasn't been discussed so much is what is the future of our OF? Morgan has been a very pleasant surprise but despite his decent/good OBP and good defense, he has no power at all. Because of this, as well as Nate's lack of ideal speed for CF, I had always envisioned Nate sliding over to left field when Cutch came up, with Cutch in center. Given the dimensions of PNC park, this would be a great defensive alignment, since a tweener CF/corner hybrid is exactly what we need in left at PNC. Nate would have been a great defensive LF for us, and his bat would have been above average in LF too (though not as good as his bat plays in CF). This trade leaves our organization with no real power above A+ (w/ exception of the constantly injured Doumit and the oscillatory Adam LaRoche). Where are we gonna get the power from? We seem to be stockpiling AAA pitchers with these trades as though we want to be decent again in 2010 or 2011 - we also now have a very good defensive team and a lot of guys who can get on base (Andy LaRoche, McCutchen) but where will the power come from? Or is the plan to use our speed at the top of the lineup to "manufacture" runs? If so, that strategy sounds familiar doesn't it?

Matt Wieters facts - ala Chuck Norris

houksyndrome — Fri, 29 May 2009 19:51:42 -0000

Matt Wieters facts - ala Chuck Norris

Check this out, it's really funny.

Mechanics websites?

houksyndrome — Thu, 21 May 2009 07:40:16 -0000

Hey guys, I'm a slow pitch softball player who played little league baseball. Obviously, I've never had much coaching and it hurts my game. In particular, my throwing arm is poor for someone with my size (6'7, 220lbs). I am looking for suggestions for websites where I can learn more about throwing mechanics and also hitting mechanics (more interested in throwing though). Any advice on instructional websites would be much appreciated. Thanks very much!

Levi Jones

houksyndrome — Fri, 08 May 2009 06:32:59 -0000

Do we have the cap room to make a competitive offer for him? He is only 29 years old. I know he missed several games last year due to injury. How serious was the injury? Will it affect him long term? Assuming he is healthy, he could give our line a major boost. We could insert him at RT or LT (and move Starks back to the right side). Either of those moves would improve our OL immensely. I have no confidence in Willie Colon whatsoever.

Confused about Foote

houksyndrome — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 23:59:41 -0000

First off, Foote has been a good but not great player on our defense for several years now. He was a starter on 2 SB winners. I am sad to see him go, if he is going. That being said, I don't have a problem with Foote leaving. Timmons has immense potential and I think he can make our D even better than it was before.

I do have a problem with us cutting him like this after the draft. I would have preferred to trade him for draft picks. This seems like a stupid waste. Foote, while not a star, could improve most of the defenses in this league. One would think that we could have traded him for some type of draft pick, instead of just cutting him like this. And if not a draft pick, then trade him for an OL who can come in here and compete for a job. Seems a waste of resources to just cut Foote like this. Anybody got some insight here?