SB Nation User Blog: houstoncardinal

If the Schu fits...

houstoncardinal — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 04:17:45 -0000

[HC left for vacation the other day, and wrote this post before he left town and placed it into the publication queue. that's why there's no mention of yesterday's heroic comeback. --- lb]

Coming into this season, it was, for the first time, a virtual certainty (don’t you like those oxymoronic terms?) that Skip Schumaker would be on the active roster. Though he made the club out of the spring of ’07 as well, nobody saw him as a regular, everyday contributor. In fact, even this spring most didn’t see him playing as often as he has. Most of us saw Duncan, Ankiel, and Ludwick all getting more playing time in the OF than Schumaker and it wasn’t unreasonable to think that Colby Rasmus might also make the club, thus taking even more playing time from Schumaker. Some were even anticipating that Brian Barton would be the everyday CF or LF as Skip assumed the role previously played by So Taguchi.

I’ll admit, when I saw Schumaker’s name in the opening day lineup I saw this as Tony falling in love w/ one of his favorites, ala Miles or Taguchi. After all, Schumaker didn’t exactly have a terrific minor-league pedigree and hadn’t distinguished himself as a major-leaguer either. Sure, there were some signs. His ’07 was pretty good (.358 OBP, 111 OPS+) but he only had 188 PA’s in ’07. His walk rate was a paltry 4.3% and his BABIP was .368 so it was pretty easy to chalk up his ’07 numbers as being fluky.

Here we are, more than halfway through the season, approaching the All-Star break, and Skip Schumaker leads all the Cardinal outfielders in PA’s. Not only that, but it would be unfair and untrue to chalk it up to some sort of favoritism from Tony as Schumaker has demonstrated himself to be an above-average major-league OF. We’ve spoken at great length of the great, All-Star-worthy first half of Ryan Ludwick but little has been said of the great job Schumaker’s done so far. Perhaps it’s that many of us are expecting the other shoe to drop – for Skip’s star to become a white dwarf – so that Rasmus can take his rightful place in the Cardinal OF for years to come.

It’s clear that that time will come – and it will come soon – and nobody’s a bigger Rasmus fan than I am. However, it’s time that we acknowledge that it may not be Schumaker’s place that Rasmus assumes when his ticket is punched. Yes, Ludwick’s been great so far and Ankiel, IMO, has proven himself to be a genuine major-league OF but we can no longer dismiss Schumaker’s performance, and potential, simply b/c he doesn’t hit the homers those two hit.

Schumaker’s evolution as a major-league hitter seems to be genuine. He has, to date, 310 plate appearances so far this season. (numbers are a few days old as I’m now on vacation and had to pre-program this thread.) Skip’s current OPS is .803, making his OPS+ 113. His OBP is a robust .364 – not bad for a leadoff hitter.

His VORP is 16.1. That he’s 7th among NL LF’s masks the fact that the 6 hitters above him are all excellent hitters. They include the likes of Holliday, Dunn, Burrell, Braun, Lee, and Bay. His VORP is greater than All-Star starter Alfonso Soriano, among others. He would be 5th among NL CF’s (w/ Ankiel 4th) and 6th among NL RF’s – ahead of notables such as Jeremy Hermida, Andre Ethier, Justin Upton, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Hunter Pence.

He’s averaging 5.73 RC/27 outs – 19th among NL OF’s. He’s ahead of all the RF’s I just mentioned as well as Chris Young, Juan Pierre, and Jeff Francoeur. His WPA is 1.18 – tied for 11th among NL OF’s w/ Adam Dunn. Never once in Juan Encarnacion’s career was his OPS as high as Schumaker’s over a full season. Most of us considered Encarnacion to be about a league-average OF (though he was overpaid as a Cardinal). That Schumaker, who formerly appeared to be a left-handed version of So Taguchi, has become an above-average OF says something.

The question is not, however, how good has Schumaker been but rather, is his performance sustainable? On the one hand, Schumaker’s BABIP is once again rather high (.326), possibly lending credence to those who question whether Skip has truly turned a corner at the plate. Still, Skip has made a noticeable improvement offensively and nowhere is that more evident than with his increasing BB rate. In his time w/ the Cards last year, as I said earlier his BB rate was 4.3%. In his major-league career prior to this season, it was just over 7%. However, in the first half of this year, Skip has managed to increase his BB rate to 9.1%. Because of his BB rate, this year’s OBP is higher than last season’s despite the fact that his BABIP has fallen by more than 40 points.

The increasing BB rate is important for a leadoff hitter, but Skip has shown considerably more power this season than he ever has before. A full 40% of his hits have gone for extra bases so far this season. His ISO (slugging – BA) is .139 – the highest so far of his career. His EqA is .292 – higher than Derrek Lee’s, among others. The point is that Skip Schumaker is not simply a singles hitter. He has increased his line drive % to 21.2% and that, along w/ his relatively low K rate (12.5%) will help him maintain a relatively high batting average. However, it is the improvement in his BB rate that allows for the increased LD% and increased power. He’s clearly seeing the ball better, recognizing pitches better, and getting better pitches to hit by working pitchers into favorable counts. He’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone and making better contact.

All that said, Rasmus’ time is rapidly approaching. He’s been scalding the ball for more than a month now and he’ll be up before the season’s over. Where will he fit in? I’m not sure but I wouldn’t write Skip off just yet. Though he’s younger than both Ludwick and Ankiel, he probably has less trade value than the others simply b/c he has less power and there are probably more doubters about the sustainability of his 1st half performance. Needless to say, though, I’m starting to feel more comfortable w/ the idea of trading one of the others in order for Skip to play everyday.

I went looking for Skip’s comparables, b/c I had a hard time coming up w/ one myself. Prior to this season, his number 1 comp was the illustrious George Vukovich. I suspect that after this season, it will be somebody else. Who does he remind you of?

The first guy I thought of was Nate McLouth – though comps are usually of former players, not present-day but McLouth is another guy who has really made a dramatic improvement in his game. However, McLouth’s improvement has largely occurred b/c of his reduced K rate, not an increased BB rate. He’s been showing more and more power every year and then he’s really taken off over this season’s first half. Still, they’re built about the same and both play the OF so…

In any case, Schu’s been outstanding so far this season and his improved BB rate and high extra-base hit rate give every indication that he should be able to sustain it – for a few years at least. It will be very important for this team to get above-average production from an OF for the next few years, especially since Skip will be cost-controlled for the next 4. If you remember, many of the complaints about the Encarnacion signing revolved around his league-average production and his cost. Would it not have been so much better if the team had been able to get Juan’s production from someone earning a million dollars a year (or less) rather than $5 or so million per year? And Skip’s been better so far this year than Juan ever was.

Game 83 Overflow thread

houstoncardinal — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 19:21:06 -0000

Finish it off, Cards!

Game 83 Open Thread -- June 29, 2008

houstoncardinal — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 17:29:28 -0000

Well, today it's Looper v. Bannister as the Cards try to take the series from the Royals. As I've noted several times, the Cards have been very good in terms of winning series in which they've lost the first game. It's flukish, but it's something.

Also, here is where I'm going to say something derogatory about Braden Looper. 4 weeks ago to the day, I was pretty hard on Looper , going on and on about how horribly he was pitching. Now, for the entire month of June, he's 3-1 w/ a 2.67 ERA and a .638 OPS against. He's still not striking anyone out (15 in 33 IP) but the big difference is that he's only walked 4 batters this month. (knock, knock, knock on wood). I'm counting on the fact that my harsh, yet honest, words about him (as much as the reduction in his BB rate) did the trick.

So here goes -- Braden's not very good. His K/9 is too low and he's overpaid. Oh yeah, and he's been helped out by the Cards scoring 31 runs in his 5 starts this month. What else? He's hit 3 batters in his 5 June starts! Intolerable. And his OPS at the plate in June is a measly .819 (Damn! Can he play 2nd base? ... but I digress.) He's terrible. Now let's go get some runs and another quality start from Looper.


looper	bannister
9-5, 4.22	7-6, 4.47

First half diagnosis

houstoncardinal — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 06:24:37 -0000

Well, the Cards finally got off the schneid versus the Royals last night. I gotta say, though – the more I watch them (the Royals), the more I think "they’ve really got the makings of a pretty damned good ball club." I am glad to see that, but even happier to see the Cards get a win, and to see Mitch Boggs pitch a pretty good game, to boot.

I missed the first part of the game and I guess he started out a little shaky – pitching around 3 BB’s in the first 2 IP. After that, though, he really settled down before finally running out of gas in the 7th. 55 of his 96 pitches were for strikes – not great, but not terrible – about 57% of his pitches were for strikes, the same percentage he’s had over his previous outings. However, once he settled down, he became much more effective w/ his pitches. In innings 3-6, he threw 54 pitches, 34 of which were for strikes (63%). He also struck out 6 batters in his 6+ innings. Up to this point, he had 4 major-league K’s TOTAL. In his first 3 starts + 1 relief outing, he had only been able to get a total of 9 swing-and-misses from major league hitters. Last night, he got 8 swing-and-misses.

He’s still not ready for the big leagues, and he’ll still take some lumps while he’s up here, but with every start I’m getting more and more comfortable with the notion that he’s going to be able to hold down the fort for a while. While Wainwright is on the mend, we need Boggs (or…gulp – Mulder) to keep the team in the game, and keep the pen from being destroyed. Boggs won’t be the savior, but I think he’ll be ok until the wagonmaker gets back.

That’s important b/c there’s been quite a bit of discussion of late on what the team should do as the trade deadline approaches in order to stay competitive and try to make it to the playoffs w/o mortgaging the solid (and outstanding) prospects who are approaching major-league readiness. With just over half a season in the bag, it’s becoming apparent that the NL Central is going to be a 3 team race. Right now the Cards have the 2nd best record in the NL, so the Wild Card is a very real possibility as well. Baseball prospectus has our odds of making the playoffs at about 35.5% -- 3rd highest in the NL. Unfortunately, it likes the Brewers chances slightly better than ours which, if that comes to fruition along w/ the Cubs 92% likelihood, would leave us on the outside looking in. Nevertheless, though many if not most of us thought the Cards’ chances of making the postseason unlikely at the beginning of the season, it now seems as though our odds are as good as just about anybody’s.

Since we are halfway through the season, I wanted to take a look at where we stand in comparison w/ our primary competitors to help us decide which holes are most in need of patching down the stretch. LB’s post on Thursday dealt with the possibility of the team pursuing a starting pitcher via trade. Many of us expressed some skepticism that starting pitcher was the area in which we are most needy and I tended to agree then, and do more so now. Here’s why:

Here’s how we compare with the Cubs and Brewers over the first half of the season. Def Eff is team defensive efficiency as measured by the Hardball Times. BP’s measurement isn’t very different, if you prefer theirs.

	R/G	ERA -- starters	ERA -- bullpen	Def Eff
Cubs	5.46	4.08	3.44	.707
Cards	4.62	4.01	4.29	.705
Brewers	4.54	4.14	4.10	.700

Now, many of you aren’t going to believe that the Cubs defense is the best in the division but, as I said, BP’s isn’t much different. Both measures have them in the top 5 in baseball in terms of their defense. Yes, it’s been slightly better than ours. As for their offense, it’s been much better than ours and much better than just about everybody’s. There’s little question of its potency. And their team ERA is more than a run and a half LOWER than their offensive production. If they keep that up, they won’t be caught and we’re playing for the Wild Card. There’s no shame in that. Perhaps playing the Cards another 12 times will bring them back to earth slightly but it’s safe to say that their success in the first half has been no fluke. Dammit!

As for the Cards, it’s pretty clear to me which part of our team has struggled the most. Our starting rotation has been the best in the division – Cubs included. Now I realize that Wainwright’s going to miss another month or so, but w/ Wellemeyer, Pineiro, Looper, Lohse, and Boggs, are we really in need of another starter? Particularly one along the lines of Jarrod Washburn, Vicente Padilla, or (God help us) Miguel Batista? Wellemeyer’s elbow’s a little scary but, if he and Boggs are the two biggest question marks as we approach the trade deadline, judging by his start Thursday and Boggs’ start yesterday, I’m feeling OK about our chance to keep pace. And, yes, Kennedy’s terrible and Duncan’s been awful. It’s reasonable to wonder whether or not Ludwick and Schumaker are going to be as good in the 2nd half as they’ve been in the first half. Still, in looking at those numbers, the one thing that jumps out is how high the team’s bullpen ERA is. Our bullpen ERA is 14th in the NL and 25th in baseball. It seems to me that it’s our pen that will be more likely to keep us from making the playoffs than our rotation or 2nd base or Chris Duncan.

I’m not going to run through the litany of possibilities here but it’s pretty obvious, also, that our right-side in the pen isn’t too shabby. We’ve got Springer, Perez, McClellan all setting up for Franklin or, best case scenario, Izzy pitches much better and we have the first 4 righties setting up for Izzy. It’s the left side that’s the problem. So I’ll just throw out a couple of suggestions here.

First – Jaime Garcia. Many of you have gone on record as saying "he’s not ready!" He does, after all, only have a grand total of 59.1 innings at AAA. However, he’s averaging 7.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, .76 HR/9, and he’s left-handed. The organization is going to want to limit the innings he throws this season anyway since he did experience some minor elbow problems at the end of the ’07 season. Right now he’s at 94.1IP between Springfield and Memphis. Another 5 starts at Memphis gets him to about 130 IP. It’ll be just after the All-Star break and the club could call him up, put him in the bullpen and have him get 25 or so bullpen innings down the stretch for the big club. This gets him to between 150-160 IP on the season, assuming we don’t make the playoffs. If we do, he throws another 10-15 in postseason and is able to help the club w/o overdoing it.

Will he help the club? Almost certainly. Does anyone here really believe he won’t be better than Randy Flores? Is there anyone here who has a lot of faith in Randy’s brother Ron? I don’t know how good Garcia would be out of our pen, but he’ll certainly be better than what we’ve got, and we’re going to have to either shut him down or put him in the pen anyway to limit his innings. The point is that we’ve got a ready-made solution and we wouldn’t have to give up anyone in order to do it. Some have pointed out that he’s not on the 40 man roster. That’s an easy problem to solve also as it could be solved by the release of Flores, Jimenez, Rico Washington, Mulder, or Clement, for example. The limited number of innings Garcia would throw wouldn’t prevent him from being under the club’s control for 6 more years beyond this one. In short, the club has nothing to lose in trying him.

Another possibility is this guy should the Dodgers fall out of the race. I’m not sure that they will but he’s as viable an option as Derek Lowe is for our rotation. He’s left-handed, strikes out about 5.5 per 9 IP, walks just over 3 per 9 IP, gets ground balls about 56% of the time, and has given up just one homerun in his last 112 IP. Oh yeah, he’s also a free agent at the end of the year so the Dodgers don’t have a huge reason NOT to trade him, if they decide they’re going to be sellers. A lot of people have tossed around names like Damaso Marte and Brian Fuentes, but let’s not forget about this guy. He would be an immediate lift to our pen.

Down on the farm, Clayton Mortensen had a good outing – 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K and you know who is still en fuego. How’s 19 for his last 39 PA’s sound? It wouldn’t be unreasonable to consider trading Ludwick or Ankiel rather than Mortensen or Anderson down the stretch, as long as we got someone in return who could help us beyond this year.

Game 77 Overflow thread

houstoncardinal — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 18:24:39 -0000

Gimme a C, Gimme an A, Gimme a .... oh, the hell w/ it. Let's polish off this sweep and head to Detroit!

Game 77 Open Thread -- June 22, 2008

houstoncardinal — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 05:50:27 -0000


Pineiro	Lester
2-3, 4.02	6-3, 3.18

Jon Lester is a talented young lefty. He sports the season's only no-hitter and is 2nd on their team (among starters) in ERA and FIP. The Cards have actually done fairly well against lefties so far this season. Of course, most of that's been w/ Pujols in the lineup. Our BB rate, K rate, and HR rate are all better vs. LHP than RHP. The team has a respectable .261/.351/.409 line against lefties. <p>

As for Pineiro, he's gotten his ERA down to 4.02 and his FIP to 4.03. Much of that is b/c of his low BB rate -- 2.3/9 IP. He got off to a slow start but was very good Tuesday, with the team taking a hard luck loss when the offense was able to muster 1 run and Ron Villone gave up the game-winning homer in the 8th. Hopefully, we can get Pineiro some Mitch Boggs-run support today.

Now hiring -- physician

houstoncardinal — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 05:40:05 -0000

Professional sports organization is in desperate need of an additional physician to deal w/ team's increasing workload. Must be able to handle strong personalities and travel extensively. Salary -- commensurate w/ experience. However, it will be less than every one of your patients.

There’s a lot to discuss on this Sunday morning. First of all, somebody please explain this to me. We get swept, at home, by the Royals and then immediately head to Boston and are, conceivably, on the verge of sweeping the Red Sox? WTF? This team is so difficult to figure out.

Secondly, Mitch Boggs wasn’t at all good yesterday but, once again, he managed to survive and is now 2-0. He’s given up 3 HR and has 7 BB and 4 K’s in 16.2 IP. And yesterday’s game was the first in which he’s had more fly ball outs than ground ball outs. Still, aided by an 8 run outburst against Dice-K, he was able to help out our bullpen by getting through 5 innings. This shows the value of assessing pitchers based on wins and losses, as the team is averaging almost 8 runs of offense every time Boggs takes the field. Nevertheless, it counts as a W. BTW, though it probably didn’t make a lot of difference, McClellan was fantastic yesterday – a good sign just a couple of days after giving up 2 late bombs against the Royals.

Though Boggs stay in the Cardinal rotation probably won’t last much longer, I do think that Boggs may have a future among the starting 5. He needs more time at AAA, and his ceiling is probably that of a 4th or 5th starter. Still, if he can turn into a guy who gets ground balls, he can probably give the Cards some value as a cheap starter who provides a league-average or so ERA for a few years. He can probably be as good as Braden Looper and the ability of a team to pay its 4th or 5th starter $1 M or less (as opposed to Looper’s $5.5) is underappreciated. He’s certainly been better than Parisi (though that doesn’t say a whole lot) and, after getting some more work at Memphis, can probably return next year and provide the team a good deal of value for the next few years.

More good news – it appears as though Wellemeyer is on the verge of returning to the rotation. He threw 40 pitches yesterday and was able to spin the slider solidly out of his hand w/ no pain – a great sign. He appears to be on track for a start Thursday against the Tigers. The same article suggests that Mark Mulder (yippee!) could be nearing a return to the rotation as well. I have no idea what to make of this. I’ve been extremely bearish on Mulder’s return but the recent reports that Mulder was hitting 90 and 91 on the gun, throwing strikes, and getting ground balls w/ his new delivery was reason for optimism. Then he was bombed in his last start for the Redbirds and I thought, "here we go again." I realize that Boggs needs more time at AAA but does anyone really have high expectations that Mulder’s going to be a significant improvement over good ‘ol Mitch? Not me. I sure hope to be wrong, though.

It also appears that some guy named Pujols is on the verge of returning to the lineup . Does anybody know anything about this guy? I was ecstatic upon reading this though I have to admit that the fact that Pujols is returning so quickly scares me a little. Let’s be sure you’re healthy, Albert. Still, he managed to get by in 2003 (I think it was ’03) when he played LF and practically had to roll every ball hit his way back to Renteria. In ’06, he returned from injury much more quickly than anyone anticipated and did just fine. I wonder if he’s pushing his luck but it’s difficult to argue w/ success. He’s a bad mamma-jamma and, unquestionably, would be a big boost to the offense.

The news isn’t so good for Yadi (as the previous link indicates). According to the article, Molina suffered "a regression in his performance on the imPACT concussion screening exam." In other words, he’s still suffering from the effects of last Sunday’s concussion. It may end up being no big deal, as Molina said that he didn’t feel any worse yesterday than he did Friday (when he homered as a DH). Still, we’re talking about a concussion which, as silentbob (our resident injury specialist) told us Tuesday is really a "brain contusion." It’s a brain injury which means that even minor setbacks shouldn’t be dismissed casually.

Was it 2006 when Jim Edmonds suffered from the effects of a concussion that stayed with him for a good chunk of the season? He banged up against the CF wall chasing a ball and the effects of that concussion lingered for the entire season. Of course, we know that a concussion ended Mike Matheny’s career. Now, I’m not at all suggesting that Yadi’s injury could be career-threatening. I am suggesting, however, that the effects could last for a while and, forgive me for saying this, but the man’s health is much more important than his baseball career or the team’s success this year. Personally, I want Yadi to get better, whether that means he’s back in the lineup today, heads to the DL, or is out for a month or more. It’s a brain injury and team doctors need to be certain that he’s better before having him strap on that gear and get beaten up 5 games per week.

Now, how do we know that there’s a new Cardinal injury? If it’s a day that ends in "y", we know someone else must be injured. Our newest injury belongs to…(drum roll, please)…Cesar Izturis, come on down! You’re the next contestant on "The Bandage Fits Right!" Nick Stavinoha will be the latest Cardinal to sport the number of an offensive guard on the diamond. I’ve been aware of Nick since he was on the baseball team for 1 year here at the University of Houston while also being (I think) the deep snapper for the football team. (Maybe the number will be perfect for him!) He left U of H, played a year at a JUCO (I think San Jacinto – also here in the Houston area) and played 2 years at LSU. He’s got some power and a .375 OBP for Memphis this year. The article says he might be in line to play some 1B, as his numbers have always been pretty good vs. lefties, but he’s played a grand total of 7 games at 1B in the minors – none since 2005. With Jon Lester on the mound today, I think there’s a pretty good chance that Stavinoha will be in today’s starting lineup. If so, he’ll be the 9th Cardinal to make his major-league debut so far this season – and we’re not even at the freaking All-Star break yet. So many rookies isn’t totally unheard of, but it just doesn’t happen on teams with the 2nd best record in the league.

Finally, the prospect of Stavinoha playing 1B today leads us to the inevitable discussion of one Christopher Edward Duncan. Since he arrived in the big leagues, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Duncan and have been a big defender of his in threads throughout the season. His career numbers include a .350 OBP (he walks), a .490 SLG (he hits homers), and an OPS+ of 116. These are, at least, solid numbers from a guy who earns less than half a million dollars per season. Last year, he struggled in the 2nd half and it was widely attributed to a hamstring injury he incurred (I believe) chasing down a fly ball last July.

However, I’ve heard nothing (correct me if I’m wrong) that his struggles this year are at least partially the result of lingering effects of this injury. To be blunt, since the All-Star break last season, he has stunk. Since last year’s All-Star break, he’s had 346 PA’s. He missed some time b/c of the injury but I think we all know that some of the time he’s missed is the result of ineffectiveness. Does anyone want to see him at 1B today against a good, young lefty?

In those 346 PA’s, he has 66 hits – that’s a .220 batting average. Now, I’ll be the first to tell you that there’s too much emphasis on batting average, to the exclusion of on-base percentage, but .220 is bad…period. He’s walked 44 times over those 346 PA’s – a .318 OBP. Just for perspective, Izturis’ OBP this season is .315. He’s reached Izturis-levels of offensive ineptitude. In those 346 PA’s, he has 12 2B’s and 9 HR’s. 21 extra-base hits in the Cardinals’ last 152 games! Oh yeah, and he’s struck out 93 times in those 346 PA’s. The bottom line, of course, is that he’s been downright awful.

So what’s the deal? First of all, he’s become A LOT less patient at the plate. This should be unsurprising considering the drop in his OBP. In 2006, he saw 4.09 P/PA. Last year, even considering his 2nd half struggles, he saw 4.15 P/PA. This year, he’s seeing 3.64 P/PA. He’s seeing half a pitch less every time he steps to the plate. He used to be a very patient hitter. Now he’s Rick Ankiel (in terms of patience). Now, Ankiel’s come a long way in terms of his patience at the plate, but he’ll never be confused w/ Kevin Youkilis or Adam Dunn.

In looking over his numbers at fangraphs, none of them really stand out. I expected to discover that he was swinging at an inordinately high % of pitches outside the strike zone, but that’s not the case at all. For the season, he’s only swung at 15.87% of the pitches he’s seen outside the strike zone. That’s actually 2.5% less than Pujols has swung at in the same situation so it doesn’t seem to be a concern. In looking at his batted ball statistics, his line drive % is ok (22.6% -- higher than his career average), his ground ball % is about the same as his career average, and his fly ball percentage is right around career average as well. There are 2 things, however, that stand out. The first is that his HR/FB rate is inordinately LOW. The reason for that is the other thing that stands out – his infield fly ball percentage is 22.2 % -- almost 3 times higher than his career average entering the season. Only 2 NL batters who qualify have a higher IFFB%. He’s popping up the ball, seemingly, all the time.

This tells us, of course, that he’s not centering the ball. Why? I don’t know. It could be b/c he’s impatient and out on his front foot all the time. It could be that, even though he’s swinging largely at strikes, he’s swinging at a lot of pitcher’s pitches. Maybe he’s not seeing the ball well. Maybe he’s doing something funky with his swing. I don’t know but there’s little doubt right now that his offense is hurting the team.

One thing I do know is that, in order to fix his approach at the plate, Duncan needs to play. Earlier in the week, I was a pretty staunch advocate for keeping him with the team, rather than sending him to Memphis, with the belief that he’ll be playing (most) every day w/ the big club and he’ll get more out of hitting big-league pitching than AAA pitching. Plus, I didn’t really see Stavinoha or anyone else doing much better than he’s doing right now.

However, if Pujols is indeed due back sometime this week, it may be time to reconsider Duncan’s status on the roster. I find it hard to believe that Mo and Tony (or Tony and Mo?) will keep Stavinoha when Pujols returns and send Duncan down but, with Pujols returning, it’ll be difficult to justify Duncan playing every day. He’s nowhere near being better than Skip, Ludwick, or Ankiel in the OF. Now, the team will be using a DH Thursday through Sunday so he could play every day for 4 days at the end of the week but, after that, I don’t see him getting a lot of PA’s w/ the big club unless he starts hitting a lot better very quickly. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him once again sent down at the end of next week. It’s time for Duncan to get back on track if he’s going to be a legitimate major-league hitter.

Cards go for the sweep today. We’re 1-4 this year when going for the sweep of a 3-game series, winning only at the end of the season’s first week against the Nationals. It’ll be Pineiro against Lester.

I'll have a game thread up around 12:15. Go get 'em, boys!

Game 71 Open Thread -- June 15, 2008

houstoncardinal — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:10:34 -0000

Kyle Lohse was stupendous yesterday, giving the Cards a chance to win another series. It wasn't that long ago where I was mocked for saying that the Lohse signing was a good one. Without tooting my horn too much, Lohse is 15th in the NL (and better than either Wainwright or Wellemeyer in FIP and has an ERA+ of 110 -- and he's only being paid $4.25 M this year (less than Braden Looper and Mark Mulder). A good signing then, a better one now -- though I must admit he's pitched much better than I thought. Hopefully, he can keep it up. Today Mitch Boggs pitches his 2nd start after being respectable in his first. I am concerned about 3 BB's and 0 K's but maybe he can improve a little today. He's opposing Brett Myers -- a guy I've always loved but who's struggled mightily this year. He's already yielded 18 homers and walked 38 in 86 IP! Strangely, the Cards are 7-2-2 in series where they have lost the first game, losing 2 back-to-back series against the Brewers and Pirates more than a month ago. Go get 'em, Mitch!

What a relief!

houstoncardinal — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 14:57:24 -0000

Admit it – how many of you thought, even for a second, that LaRussa might turn to Izzy in the 9th? The Cards were up 1 and Franklin had been pretty bad (of course, who hadn’t?) the night before and Izzy had just been recalled earlier in the day. I thought Franklin would be the choice but it did occur to me that he just might turn to Izzy. We shouldn’t be surprised when it happens, because it will happen – and soon, I suspect. If Izzy has a couple of good outings from the pen, they’ll pronounce him cured and reinsert him into the closer’s role.

I’ve been inspired to examine the bullpen today b/c yesterday, while watching the Cards’ game, I was reading The Book -- particularly, the chapter on relievers. The authors’ conclusion, for those who haven’t yet read it, is that teams aren’t using their best relievers enough. Closers can pitch more than 1 inning at a time, for instance, w/o it affecting their ability to pitch the next day or the day after that. The conclusion is similar to one reached in Baseball Between the Numbers where it states that managers should use their relievers in the regular season as they do in the postseason. It’s no big deal to use Mariano Rivera for 2 IP in a postseason game. Therefore, he should do it in the regular season as well.

When the Cardinal game ended yesterday, FOX switched over to the Reds vs. Red Sox game. In this game, BOTH managers managed to misuse their closers and it ended up costing the Reds the game. The Sox had lefty Hideki Okajima on the mound w/ 1 out in the 8th. He was brought in to face a ton of lefties and had allowed 2 to reach base – 1 via single and 1 through a walk. With 5 outs to go in the game, and the Sox up 4-2 w/ runners on 1st and 2nd, Francona decided he’d seen enough. He promptly called on …(drum roll, please) – Manny Delcarmen. Now, Delcarmen’s not a bad reliever and he’s probably the best the Sox have outside of Papelbon, but Francona could have – and should have – called on Papelbon. Delcarmen’s 1st hitter was the estimable Javier Valentin who promptly singled, cutting the Sox lead to 4-3. That Delcarmen managed to get Griffey, Jr. to hit into a DP, and that Papelbon gave up a 2 out homer to Edwin Encarnacion in the 9th doesn’t absolve Francona of his mistake. Papelbon’s the best reliever the Sox have and no situation calls for your best reliever more than that one – 2 on, 1 out in a 2-run game in the 8th. If Francona uses Papelbon and he’s able to get out of it up 4-2, the Sox win in 9 despite Encarnacion’s 9th inning homer.

In the top of the 10th, Dusty Baker made just as big a mistake. He left Mike Lincoln in to pitch to the Sox and he promptly gave up back-to-back homers to Kevin Youkilis and Coco Crisp while his best reliever, Francisco Cordero, languished away in the pen. Cordero never entered the game and the Reds lost 6-4 in 10 innings. What, exactly, was Baker saving his best reliever for – the 11th? If they don’t survive the 10th, they never see the 11th. Why a team would lose an extra inning game w/o ever having its best reliever throw a pitch is absolutely beyond me, but that’s exactly what happened yesterday.

Watching all of this unfold, at least the part FOX allowed me to watch (they switched away to highlights of the Reds game while it was going on but immediately after the back-to-back jacks in the 10th) made me want to examine how the Cards were using their bullpen. Who is our best reliever? I’m not even sure. It’s not Izzy, at least not right now. God help us if it’s Franklin. Could it be Perez? Is it too early to tell? McClellan? Springer’s been pitching well of late. Do you think Tony and Dunc even know who our best reliever is right now?

Did you know – b/c I didn’t – that the Cards’ bullpen’s ERA is 15th in the NL? I had no idea it was that bad. Only the Padres’ is worse. It’s reasonable to assert that bullpen ERA isn’t the best way to evaluate bullpens b/c of the way in which earned runs are doled out. What about WXRL – relievers expected wins added? Last in the NL! Wow! We’re 13th in the NL in inherited runners allowed to score. I had no idea it was that bad. That we’re in the middle of the pack in the NL in ERA is a testament to how good our starters have been. Wainwright, Wellemeyer, and Lohse in particular have managed to keep this team afloat.

The table below details how well our relievers have pitched along with their leverage index -- how important the situation is when the reliever is brought into the game. A higher number reflects a more important situation (i.e.: 2 on, 1 out in the 8th). I’ve already defined WXRL. WPA is win probability added -- the amount that a player has contributed to the likelihood of a Cards’ win throughout the season. FIP is fielding independent pitching -- an ERA-style measurement of how well pitchers have pitched, regardless of defense.

Pitcher	LI	WXRL	WPA	FIP
Izzy	2.08	-2.47	-2.90	5.89
Franklin	1.89	1.918	1.30	3.88
McClellan	1.55	1.589	1.28	3.21
Springer	0.92	0.585	0.50	3.43
Flores	1.64	-0.142	-0.22	3.97
Perez	0.95	0.702	0.53	2.53
Villone	0.74	0.100	-0.05	3.84

Naturally, I didn’t include some of the others – the mop-up guys – Parisi, Thompson, Jimenez, Aaron Miles. We know they’re not our best options out of the pen (though Miles may be slowing turning into one). So, what does the table tell us? First of all, it’s important that we understand that WXRL and WPA are counting stats whereas FIP is a rate stat. What that means is that Perez’s WXRL and WPA aren’t lower than some of the others b/c he’s been worse. They’re lower b/c he hasn’t been with the team as long and hasn’t pitched in as many games as the others. The fact that his FIP is the best on the team (though, admittedly, in an EXTREMELY small sample) tells us how well he’s pitched.

The Cards’ 3 most leveraged relievers – the ones Tony has called on in the most important situations – are Izzy, Franklin, and Flores. The first 2 are unsurprising as they’ve been our closers/set up man but 2 of the 3 have been pretty bad on the whole this season. Flores, once again, has a negative WPA, a negative WXRL, and is 6th in the bullpen in FIP, yet Tony continues to turn to him in high-pressure situations. He’s walked 12 and struck out 13 in 18.2 IP. Lefties’ OPS against him so far this year -- .802. He’s not exactly shutting down lefties and really hasn’t his entire career. Granted, he’s generally better vs. lefties than righties, but that’s to be expected. I can’t help but believe that, as bad as Flores is, McClellan or Perez wouldn’t be better vs. lefties.

In fact, it appears as though McClellan, Perez, and Springer are the team’s 3 best relievers right now and, I’ll admit, as the season has gone along, Tony has entrusted McClellan and Perez w/ more high-leverage situations. Still, it won’t be long before Izzy’s back at the end of the pen. I hope he’s ready. I’ve been as big an Izzy-backer as anybody (and more so than many) but I’ve got my doubts. The pen clearly has a hole on its left side. Flores just isn’t good and Villone hasn’t exactly given us reason to believe he deserves a lot of trust in high-leverage situations (though, really, he’s been very good outside of 3 implosions). Aside from 3 games in which he was crushed, including Friday’s thrashing, he’s given up just 4 ER in 22.2 IP. For his career, he’s been better vs. lefties than Flores and, despite a pretty high BB/9, it’s still lower than Flores’. Maybe Tony should turn more to Villone in high-leverage situations vs. lefties and use Flores in more of a mopup role.

Still, it’s reasonable to question whether we shouldn’t be seeing more of McClellan and Perez and a little less Flores and Franklin. When Izzy does resume his closer’s role, I suspect Franklin will slide to the 8th inning role and, if anything, we’ll end up seeing LESS of the 2 rookies. That’s unfortunate. I hope Izzy pitches as he did last year. With Wainwright down and Wellemeyer (possibly) a little shaky, the pen will become even more important over the next month or so.

A couple other notes – first – Carp is set to see Dr. James Andrews re: his elbow. I know next to nothing about this stuff but, apparently, another surgery is a possibility. Yikes! Good thing we didn’t just give him a long-term contract worth $50-60 Million.

Mulder and Clement pitched both ends of a doubleheader for Springfield yesterday. Both got wins. Mulder really pitched quite well. Clement was OK – 3 BB in 5 IP.

Finally, Bernie, like many here yesterday, has begun his overture for Colby Rasmus to be called up from Memphis. Colby’s finally crushing the ball and may be ready + w/ Pujols and Wainer out, maybe it’s time. Is it? NO! The Cards’ problems are not in the OF. If Rasmus were called up, he’d end up in some sort of platoon w/ Ankiel and Schumaker. It’s difficult to say that either one of them should sit and it makes no sense to call Rasmus up to play 3-4 times per week. Nobody on Earth is a bigger Colby Rasmus fan than I am but he shouldn’t be called up until the team is ready to put him in the lineup EVERY DAY! Colby needs to play every day and, if he were brought up, he just wouldn’t. He’s not the savior. He can’t single-handedly keep this team afloat while it recovers from its myriad injuries.

There’s an argument to be made (and Bernie, sort of does) that Rasmus should be brought up and Ankiel should sit. Ankiel’s been slumping, of late. Even so, he’s still carrying an OPS+ of 109 and playing the best CF defense in the NL. Might Rasmus provide a little bit more offense? Possibly but the extra offense he provides the 3-4 days he plays isn’t worth having him sit twice a week so that LaRussa can figure out some LaPlatoon w/ Rasmus. The team should be prepared to play him every day, as the Reds are w/ Bruce, when he’s called up and it’s just not there right now. Unless Tony wants to commit to some strange, lefty-lefty Ankiel/Schumaker platoon w/ Rasmus playing every day, he should stay at Memphis.

I’ll be up w/ a game thread in a couple hours. Hope all the Dads have a great Father’s Day.

Game 65 Overflow thread

houstoncardinal — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 15:14:39 -0000

Go Cards!