As the offseason starts, we have two running backs looking at some serious rehab to get back on the field next year. A lot has changed for the Vikings since the start of this season, not the least of which has been expectations about the running game - and in particular, Toby Gerhart.

Any posts in support of Toby upping his carries earlier this year were met with a resounding "anything Toby does, AD does better" or "why would you EVER let Toby get a single carry if AD is available". Despite some evidence that AD appeared to actually benefit when Toby got a few carries in a game, there was no real effort on the part of the Vikings coaching staff to try to develop a true multi-back game (or if any effort was made, it was to use Percy Harvin or Joe Webb as alternatives). In retrospect, the paucity of touches that Toby got in the first half of the year appears really hard to understand - particularly when the Vikings coaching staff repeatedly made statements about working him into the game plan more. During the first half of the year, Toby was statistically the most underutilized #2 back in the NFL.

So as the year ended, what do the numbers show? In a season where AD was generally viewed as having a really good year until he got hurt, Toby ended up gaining roughly similar yards per game when he started (or played significantly) and averaged more yards per carry than AD (4.9 to 4.7). Perhaps more surprisingly, Toby actually had a higher percentage of his runs going for 10 yards or more than AD (Toby = 15%; AD = 13%) . And Toby was a more prolific receiver (especially as adjusted for playing time).

                                                   Runs By Yardage                        Receiving

          Carries        Yards      YPC       10-20       20-40      40+         Catches       Yards      YPC

Toby        109          531        4.9        12          3           1            23          190        8.3

AD          208          970        4.7        17          7           3            18          139        7.7

So......the slow, lumbering fullback masquerading as a running back actually did a pretty good job of matching (or dare I say exceeding) what Purple Jesus put on the field this year. And did a better job blocking on pass protection as well.

Well folks, as hard as it is to accept, Toby is an athlete. Taking a look at respective NFL Combine performances is instructive and provides some explanation for what Toby accomplished this year. While combine performance is just that (not a substitute for or predictor of on field success), it does provide an objective benchmark of actual as opposed to perceived "athleticism". All data is from the NFL combine website.

     
                     AD       Toby

40 Yard Dash        4.40      4.50

20 Yard Dash        2.58      2.56

10 Yard Dash        1.53      1.55

Shuttle             4.40      4.25

3 Cones             7.09      6.94

Vertical Leap       38.5      38.0

Broad Jump          127       118

Bench Press          20        22

So............what does this tell us?? Mostly that they are both really good athletes. AD is faster over distance, and can leap a little bit higher and farther (but is also 15+ pounds lighter). Toby measures up to be just as quick over short distances, more agile and stronger.

Where is all of this going? Really just a wake up call to the Vikings coaching staff (and fans!) that Toby needs to play a lot more - and developing a strategy that uses both Toby and AD in games is important, particularly in a year when both players will be coming back from injury and may not be at 100% for a while (AD more than Toby here).

Wishing AD and Toby the best in getting ready for next year!

Style points aside, what is the basis for anyone concluding that AP is the best running back in the NFL and that Toby Gerhart is a bad draft choice, failure or flop (which I hear all too often on the blog). Based on AP's performance so far this year and Toby's performance last year and this year combined (periods when they both ran behind the same offensive line more or less), there is very little separation in production.

Player                           Carries                      Total Yards                  Yards Per Carry

Peterson                          81                                  376                                   4.6

Gerhart                            89                                  380                                   4.3

None of this is to denigrate Peterson, who has already had a great career and has recently earned a big payday. But maybe the Viking coaching staff and fans need to make some assessments of game plans and players based on how they are actually performing today (granted - Gerhart is being provided very little opportunity this year to show anything) and not just on reputation and style.

I, for one, do not see why Gerhart is not being given more of an opportunity to make a contribution to the team............and to AP (both within games and in extending his career). He should see more action in complete drives in the first half, allowing AP to save some of his magic for the second half. Gerhart could/would be a starting running back on many teams in the NFL. It is a shame that the Vikings are letting him wither behind AP while AP and the Vikings continue to struggle putting points on the board and converting first downs. Toby is a beast!

I am reminded, once again, as I read some of the recent posts about the amazing fade by both Julian Vaughn (2/21 from the field over the last 5 games) and Austin Freeman (49/156 from the field over the last 10 games). I remember Julian fading the previous year as well, but Austin not so noticeably. Those last ten games were played over a 46 day period.........with the last five games played over a 29 day period. Hard to really see physical fatigue as an issue - particularly at the end. Maybe there are medical/injury reasons we do not know about. Add in Jason Clark who, while not suffering any prolonged slumps, would just not show up every 4th or 5th game and finished the season shooting a very low 3 point percentage (6/29 over the last 5 games).

Given our recent history of slumps during and at the end of the season, are there other factors at work here? Are we just not a mentally tough team? Does this derive from player personnel or from coaching?

I know that Chris Wright's injury hurt us........but other teams suffer injuries too. I think we were fading before the injury occured............and then just rolled over and died. We lost our last 5 games by an average of just over 15 points!!

In many ways, this is probably useless forensic analysis.............unless it manifests itself again next year. But with low expectations and a whole new roster, people will likely focus more on the occasional big wins than a series of somewhat anticipated losses. I know that Nate, Markel and Jabril will bring the fire. Will the team and coach keep it stoked?

With paranoia,

hoyaparanoia asks the first tough question in this, the post-Osama Bin Laden era:

Thank you Troops via Doug Mills for the New York Times

With all of the focus on Hollis' potential departure from the team to the NBA (or elsewhere), have any of us (including Hollis) taken a really good look at what kind of talent he really is? Sure, it will hurt the team tremendously if he does not come back, but is HE being DELUSIONAL? And are WE not being CYNICAL enough?

Continue reading this post »

As I read the draft blogs and consistently see Mark Ingram listed as the top running back, likely to go in the first round, I thought it would be instructive to compare Ingram's NFL Combine results with those of our own Toby Gerhart (from last year):

                             Gerhart            Ingram

Height                    6' 0                   5' 9
Weight                   231                  215
40 Yd Dash           4.53                 4.62
20 Yd Dash           2.56                 2.60
10 Yd Dash           1.55                 1.55
Bench Reps          22                    21
Vertical Jump       38                   31.5
Broad Jump          9' 10                9' 5
3 Cones                 6.94                 7.13

Toby is BIGGER, FASTER, STRONGER, JUMPS HIGHER and FARTHER and is more AGILE!!!

Yet the rap on Toby continues to be his "athleticism"!!??

The Vikings are lucky to have Toby Gerhart. He will average 4.5+ yards per carry if given the ball 15 - 20 times per game; which makes him an every down back capable of 1200 yards+ over a season. It is not his fault that he has to play behind one of the best running backs in the game. I watched this guy at Stanford over his career and he is a machine. He can also catch the ball (he was a center fielder for Stanford's baseball team) but never really did that in college.

He is a different running back than AP. AP will break more very long runs (25 yards +), but Toby will get his share of 15 - 25 yard bursts if played regularly. And Toby will gain at least 2-3 yards on most plays. How many games did we see AP end up with something like 100 yards on 20 carries - accomplished on 18 rushes for 45 yards (including several snuffs) and 2 rushes for 50 yards. I know that is the nature of the game, but it is not surprising that in the games that Toby played more, he similarly broke off a few longer runs and averaged more yards per carry. He needs to get in rythym, and he gets stronger as the game progesses.

I really hope that the Vikings move to a run first, pass second offense this year. And use some more play action. The whole playbook becomes far too predictiable when you pass on first down and throw incomplete.  

I know that AP is in his contract year so he will want the ball. But hopefully the Vikings will run often enough to see Toby get a lot more carries this year. It might even be fun to see them both in the backfield from time to time.

And obviously, a QB and offensive line improvement would help everybody.

I think that the Vikings can surprise on the upside this year.

This comparison has been a natural one to watch given that Henry essentially inherited the role that Macklin was playing for the Hoyas. While I have never been a huge fan of Macklin, Henry has been a real non-factor with limited demonstrated progress - until this year. I am not sure that I can even begin to explain how he has matured from being a "deer in the headlights" athlete to a real basketball player and force on the court over the past 6 months. But I am glad to see it.

So what do the numbers show so far this year:

                   Minutes      Points    Rebounds         Assists     Blocks    TO        FG%    FT%

Macklin       21.0            10.8            6.0                 0.6           1.3        1.6       65%     33%

Sims           16.8              5.0            4.0                1.8            0.5       1.2        63%     58%

When you account for the fact that Macklin has played about 25% more minutes than Henry this year, the only real edge that Macklin has is in points (he takes more shots) and in blocks. On the other hand, Henry has been much stronger in the assist area and has hit some crucial foul shots (to be fair, Macklin shot 59% from the line last year). Chalk these differences up to the different styles of offense that G'Town and Florida play, and the roles that these big men play in those offenses.

Further, the numbers comparison fails to capture that Henry is a junior with limited historical playing time, and that he seems to be getting better game by game. Plus, Henry is a good guy!!

I think the time has finally come where I would definitively take Henry over Macklin - particularly for Georgetown's offense. It will be interesting to see how much further Henry will progress. I am astounded by what I have seen so far this year.

What do you think?

With paranoia,

Having been forced to watch 32 other teams in the tournament since G'Town crashed out, several things stand out in terms of what has gotten Butler, West Virgina, Duke (ugh) and Michigan State to the Final Four.

1. Winning Ugly - Teams that find a way to win on a bad shooting night stay in the tournament. This comes from defense, foul shooting and rebounding..............things that can and should be consistent every game. West Virginia does this every day, Duke did it yesterday.

2. Staying Focused For 40 Minutes - And staying within 3-4 points of the other team. Five minutes of mental lapse on both ends of the floor that buries a team a dozen points behind is not a good recipe for winning.

3. No Excuses - West Virginia and Michigan State are in the Final Four....WITH ONE STARTER HURT AND GONE! Duke won yesterday with Kyle Singler having a career night (that is, the first time in his career where he has NOT made a field goal). Other players need to step up when required. Coaches need to make a plan that works with the most effective players on the court that day.

4. Actually Making the Key Plays - Whether it is putting the ball in the basket in the last minute when you are down a point or two, making a key defensive stop or getting that critical rebound - it just has to happen. In so many of the games in this tournament, players made key plays at the end. I can think of only Monroe in the Temple game and Wright in the West Virginia game where we actually put the ball in the basket when we needed to at the end of the game. When we won this year, it was by cruising (albeit after some comebacks) by big enough leads over the last few minutes to prevail.

A lot of the above speaks to discipline, will to win, coaching and confidence. Not just talent.

No one can claim the the teams in the the Final Four are the most talented............they just have the moxie to string together enough wins over diverse competition to get there.

I hope our players and coaches are watching these games....................................

With paranoia,

Here's a thought. The Hoyas have won (or played well) in most of their "big games" this season. Where they have let themselves down is in their games against much lesser opponents. We have all driven ourselves crazy trying to dissect why this is the case...........but it has happened too much for it to be an accident.

So here we are at the time of the year where EVERY GAME is a "big game". Can we expect the Hoyas to outperform expectations accordingly? Are we going to actually beat Syracuse tomorrow and go on a run? Can we go deep in the NCAA tournament (Syracuse being an awfully tough test early in the Big East Tournament).

Just a thought. Perhaps delusional. Perhaps not.

With paranoia,

I know we all love Austin these days. I thought it was particularly fitting that on the day that the Washington Post published the article annointing Chris Wright as the "team leader", Austin provided some strong evidence to the contrary (and I guess Greg didn't care).

While I know that it is hard to monitor actual weight and eating habits, the facts this year speak for themselves. Austin is leading the Hoyas in minutes played, and remains strong at the END of the game where he seemed to fade a bit (or just disapear) last year. Whether it is dropping shots, getting out on the break or getting back on defense, this guy is on the move this year. And it is making a HUGE difference.

For those who remember the endless Jay Bilas comments several years ago about JWall being a "180 guy" (i.e., the mark of a great shooter by adding FG %, 3PT % and FT %), Austin is currently at 189.7 on this scale.

So nice to maybe have someone to rely on game in and game out this year. And no, it is not Chris Wright!!

With paranoia,

Ok........I guess I will have to learn to live with the occasional sighting of Jeremiah Rivers and Vernon Macklin in highlight clips such as on ESPN this past week-end. I can even take Vernon Macklin scoring a career high 16 points against Jacksonville, but I can't take the fact that he has become almost automatic from the free throw line!! Macklin was 6-6 against Jacksonville and, in fact, has converted his last 12 free throw opportunities over 3 games (yes....12 for 12). He is shooting 73.7% from the line this year...................slightly ahead of what Georgetown is shooting as a team (68.4%). I wonder how many were banked in??? Anyway, as with all transfers, must have something to do with moving away from the Princeton offense :)!

With paranoia,