Matt Bush allegedly hit a 72 year old man riding a motorcyle and left the scene. it appears alcohol might be involved.

i really do root for guys to learn the hard lessons of their youth and work things out, especially when they have an opportunity to do something that so many of us would give our non-throwing arms to do. but Matt seems to have not learned any lessons and i have to think this will be the end of his baseball career.

It seems like, for all the skills that hitters and pitchers are able to develop, the hardest are plate discipline and control, respectively. I'm curious as to who has a harder go if it, in general. Is it easier to learn the strike zone and pitch recognition or to harness multiple pitches and throw them for strikes? I'm interested in what John thinks, but also all the MiLB community's opinion (or fact, if it exists).

i've been looking at a lot of middling sort of prospects...the sort that disappear with great regularity, but occasionally come to prominence.  these guys all have some chance to do well, and range anywhere from andy oliver's 2nd round selection to "who?" (for me anyway).  i'm wondering what you guys think of their individual chances, including "blockedness" by levels above them, just making it to the majors, or really having some level of impact.  i've read various blogs, looked at stats, and can't make up my mind about any of them.  the one thing they do have in common is they all made the 2010 top 20 for their particular team...although, as we all know, top 20s look much different around 15 for different teams.

without further ado...

andy oliver, det
todd glaesmann, tbr
jp martinez, hou
james jones, sea
issac galloway, fla
marcell ozuna, fla
kyler burke, chc
brooks raley, chc
swain carroll, sd
ryan berry, bal

thanks

i know john has some love for Jon and i hear good things about Brad, too.  i believe John put Niese in his book as a B.  i've got no idea where he ranked Bergesen.  i know neither one is a front of the rotation guy...but which one ends up better long term?  career length...peripherals...success in general.

i'm curious where they might rank in terms of ability...at least estimated...with guys like Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Anthony Reyes, John Danks, too.

as a graphic came up mid-game to show the stats of zambrano and lowe, mccarver said "both pitchers throwing first pitch strikes for the most part."

zambrano = 9 fps to 20 batters

lowe = 11 fps to 23 batters

this guy's been making me nuts since i first noticed him as a bad, saying something stupid announcer back in the 1990 WS.

and now as i post this, i see the second blown call at 1st base by an ump in this series.  this one leads to an extra run on the martin hr.

ok...look through past diaries and you'll see i've supported the right of fantasy posters to ask questions freely on this site.  i am a two league dynasty team owner and found this site myself while trying to get up to see on evaluating minor league players.  well, if evaluating can be reading what other people believe about someone instead of seeing them myself.

but, in my opinion, there's a world of difference between asking intelligent people (mostly) about the futures of all these players and posting your draft for people to evaluate.

drb had an interesting reason to do so...never played before...big time prospect nut...deep knowledge of his own team.  i think the community was interested to see what he did for that reason.  but what followed was a litany of diaries on the "rate my team" topic.  to me, really...that's a yahoo sports level forum.  but it could be done here...in one diary.  but people are so concerned that nobody will look deep into a diary that each person has to have their own.

well...put it in one (and i believe the fantasy trades one could be done the same way) or don't put it up.  your fantasy roster isn't about minor league ball.  it's just not.  it's not about it because you drafted stephen drew or jay bruce or joba chamberlain.  it's about you showing the community how smart (or in most of the diaries i've read here) how average or below, you drafted.

i'm not trying to flame.  i'm trying to say if you're talking about fantasy baseball on this site, the right to which i defend completely, make it about minor league ball, or recently promoted prospects.

i've got picks 3 and 4 in an upcoming draft.  most all of the stud guys are on rosters.  these are guys who weren't drafted in our june draft, but were added into the waiver system since the offseason.

i have a good idea of who i'm taking, but these guys are all sitting around, too.  i want to make sure i'm not missing out on someone here.  i've read and perused and they're all starting to seem like an average of the total of them...if that makes sense.  so help me out a little, please.

brett sinkbeil
chris coughlan
chris tillman
alan horne
willy aybar (tearing up venezuala league)
george kottaras
jaime garcia
jonathan niese
jordan walden
wes roemer
jesus montero

it's a 14 team league with 18 roster players and 25 prospects.  no limits on keeping who you drafted.  sp is always at a premium

thanks

what's the one move (realistically) that you're team could make tomorrow for you to have a mlb merry christmas?

i want the rumors of roberts and bedard to the cubs to happen.  i think with az's new front two of webb and haren, and the starting front two of anyone that gets santana, we need another front line guy.

and now that fukudome is in the fold, one more on-base kind of guy to fill out the lineup would be perfect.

there's a lot of people who do play fantasy baseball with rosters that include minor league players.  that's how i first found this site.  i have a lot more interest in what goes on now than just the ROI for my dynasty teams.

i haven't been a frequent poster here, mostly because i usually see someone already has written something along the lines of what i'd contribute.  but i do think this site is valuable to people for more than just the facts and minutia about their favorite team or players.  and i know team owners all think they're the best thing that ever happened to a league.  so...

around that...post your best roster.  i have 4 teams, and some of them have taken massive amounts of work to bring to respectability.  the roster below is the only one over which i had control from the beginning.  it's a little different than the others in that we all started with a mlb roster and system, then drafted from the 10 remaining mlb clubs to fill out rosters.  teams were taken as available.  i joined with the pirates and twins off the board.  i wanted to go young with upside rather than established.  so i took tampa bay 3rd.

in the draft i got felix hernandez with the 12th overall pick (hitters went first...thank God), then got tulo and lincecum in the next two rounds.

i just traded lincecum for justin upton earlier this week and my roster now stands like this:

Continue reading this post »

i can't find anything on espn or anywhere else, but the headlines for the chicago news just came on wgn and they said the cubs got him.  the news starts in about 5 minutes, so i'll see what they say...probably no terms yet, i'd imagine.

i am a cubs fan, but i think they're probably gonna overpay for this guy.  maybe i'll be wrong...hopefully.  there weren't too many options out there for them, with maybe the most reasonable being sam fuld from their own system.

i know the cubs are under .500, but they're on a decent streak, winning 5 in a row and going 15-10 so far this month.

the interesting thing to me is it's been greatly on the backs of players they developed.  felix pie, mike fontenot, ryan theriot, carlos marmol, rich hill, sean marshall, and now today, billy petrick (who just k'ed two of three batters he faced, hitting 96 several times according to wgn's radar.

there's no way all these young guys play last year with dusty.  and some while some of them have been highly touted, like pie and hill, during their minor league careers, there's a lot of what most people would look at as future journeyman-type placers.  thing is they play hard (fontenot just hit a 415 foot hr, and has a single and double to go with it).

have the cubs finally hit upon the right mix of guys...a few studs in lee/soriano/ramirez/zambrano, and a lot of team player gamers?

i was at the wsox/astros game tonight.  i know there can be some variaton in the radar guns around the league, but this was really weird to me.  lidge hit 96, jenks 95, danks 91...so it couldn't have been too far off.

dewon day hit 87 on one pitch.  everything else was 83 or lower...mostly 82-83.  crazy slow.  and he k'd nearly 2/inning in the minors this year.  granted it was only 25 innings/48 k's...but still.  how can he be successful throwing that slow?

also...don't know how long pence will be out, but i guess it's better his hip than his groin, which it looked like live.

and finally...damn, the sox suck!  bad defense, bad swings, and that bullpen should make the cubs' bullpen glad to be alive.

i used to hear really great things about this guy.  maybe not lastings milledge/fernando martinez level, but high ceiling talk, nonetheless.  

now i don't hear anything at all.  is he a viable prospect now?  what's the best case sceneario for the mets with him?  does he have the tools to make it to the majors, or will just stay off the radar for good?

who do you see having the better career?

both have struggled some with the big clubs, but have shown that their stuff should be good enough to get them and keep them in the bigs eventually.

john has big praise for janssen's control, although throws it up there a little softer.

i'm holding hammel now...picked him up in his A ball days, so i have some love for him getting this far.  but janssen is available, and a guy i also had until including him in a deal for myers.

i don't have room for both, but i'd like to keep the one with the best chance to be a good #3 starter (at least).

i'm wondering if josh has a chance to be called up sometime soon.  i know he's a 27 year old prospect in triple a, but he couldn't be any worse with the twins than rondell and lew.

the twins need some serious help on the offensive side.  what are his chances of coming?  i'd like to see him up, but my guess is if he didn't move up when kubel went down, he's probably not going to move.

i'm in a 20 team dynasty league and have been bitten by the injury bug.  whilst some of my pitchers were on the dl i picked up a couple of guys that haven't performed terribly as number 4 or 5 starter types.  now i have two pitchers coming off the dl and am really torn as far as who to dump amongst these guys.  i did drop one pitcher already, josh towers, whom i've had for all three years in this league.  he just hasn't done enough, and he pitches in such a tough division.

so i need to get rid of one of the following.

brad hennessey
ian snell
jorge sosa
denny bautista (coming of the dl)

all have their reasons to dump them, and all have reasons to stay.  i've held on to bautista for three years, too, just thinking that if he could ever get healthy, he could be quite good.  snell was solid in ST, sucked his first three starts, and has been really good his last two.  hennessey pitches in great pitcher's parks and against weaker offenses in general.  and sosa...well, he's about as frustrating as it can get.  such great potential...such varied outcomes.

it's a 6x6 league, w/sv/k/h/era/whip

i really am torn between these guys.  i think bautista is safe for now, so it's more between the other three, i guess.

these side topic diaries have certainly exposed the very varied tastes we have in music, and most likely in age.  well, my only basis for the varied age comment comes from someone that said the eagles weren't the worst group ever, but the did only ever have one hit song.  not that it's a bad statement or a good one.  just probably one that didn't come from someone around in the eagle's hey day like me.

so, who do we have here coming together from such a wide range of backgrounds?  i wonder where you all are from, how you came to love the minors, and how old you are.

i'm from chicago...most of my life.  i'm 41 in a couple of weeks.  and i took the prospect "red pill" a couple of years ago when i broke from the ranks of single season fantasy baseball and joined what are now 3 dynasty leagues...two with 20 teams, and one with 14.

i was enough into baseball before the dynasty thing to know who the up and coming players were, but never tracked college careers, or the draft, or hitting/pitching friendly leagues.  i really fell fast for this, and it didn't help when my roommate joined one of my leagues a year after i did.  now, where we used to sit around and talk about how we could change the world, we sit and talk about how colby rasmus' strikeout rate could cause society to crumble.

so...what's your story?

so...the mets signed michel abreu.  he's like 30, from cuba, and put up stupidly good numbers there.  the red sox signed him last year but violated some rule and had to let him go in the process.

john, or anyone...can you tell me anything about this guy?  his power seems real, and he hits for average, too.  does he have a chance to ever make it to the bigs?

ok...we all know about teixeira and sexson...boppers to be sure.  i'm wondering about the 2 guys that are going to get their full season shots this year.  kotchman vs johnson.

kotchman showed up with a lot more pop than anticipated.  will he maintain or will he be a good average/reasonable power guy?

johnson's slugging % seemed a little low to me, too.  but then he walked as much as he struck out.

who has the better career overall and offensively?  i've read about kotchman's defense but not seen much on johnson's.

don't know if you guys are into this sort of thing, but i found it sort of accidentally. it's a sim league that runs 3 games a day in the league, and plays the full 162 games. you get a full major and minor league roster, but don't go thinking your gonna get pujols. this takes place in 1950 or so. you have a great deal of control in player development, waivers, rosters, etc. it's been really cool for the week or so that i've been playing in it.

they do dynasty leagues, but they're pay. you can, however, join the single season leagues for free. check it out.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

with cameron finally out of the picture, do you think the mets are going to give diaz a full season shot in right?  he has produced decent numbers in a pretty small sample size, although his obp is pretty low.

with everything the mets seem to be doing to win right now (and considering what's happened in the division, it's reasonable), do you think they can afford to take a little gamble in rf after adding all the other pieces they have?

i'm looking at the year eric patterson had this year (.325 with 29 doubles, 11 triples, 13 homers, 43 steals, 95 runs scored, and 73 RBIs in 119 games), ending with his promotion and successful playoff run, and am wondering if it's too much to think of him as a candidate for the second base job next spring?  is it pushing him, or could he possibly make the leap like murton has done?

would it be outlandish to think of this lineup as being contending?  i chose to add damon in cf and eliminate adding furcal.  these are the two names tossed around most consistently here in chicago to address the leadoff hitter issue.  it would also give pie a chance to heal, come back in the minors, and show if he can return to form

damon, cf
murton, lf
lee, 1b
ramirez, 3b
burnitz, rf
barrett, c
patterson, 2b
cedeno, ss

is this too many young guys for baker to deal with?  i was at the game last night and saw murton handle himself well, as he has done all season.  maybe he'll convince the brass that some of these guys can handle themselves well.

i was feeling inquisitive tonight and decided to look at what happened to a few ex-cubs first round draft picks.  i have hit a dead end on one guy and thought you all might be able to help me out.

todd noel...as the title of this has already established...cannot be found by me.

he was taken in the first round in 96, a year after kerry wood.  i know he went to florida back when we got heredia from them.  after that i'm lost.

i've got to add a couple of people and have no room for them due to my n/a list.  it now stands at 7 on a 25 man roster.  some of them have only their minors numbers to back up their eventual effectivness at the mlb level, but a couple have been up and done reasonably well.  so, please rate these 7 in order.  don't worry about the rest of my roster or what my prospect list looks like.  i'll take that into account as i make the necessary changes.  i'll put them in the order i think they rank as far as potential contributors at the mlb level.  let me know where i'm whacked out.

1. ian snell
   
2. jonny gomes
   
3. victor diaz
   
4. david aardsma
   
5. adrian gonzalez
   
6. josh kroeger
   
7. david krynzel

can someone tell me what his projection is at this point?  is there a realistic chance that he'll return to form and be a top of the line prospect?

he's still available in my league (20 teams/15 prospects per) and i'm wondering if someone shouldn't take the chance to add him.  i have one of the top two overall lists, so for me to add him would be difficult, unless he really does have a shot to be everything they thought he would before his injury.

i've got a pick (number 42 overall) coming up, and these guys from the first round (including supplemental draft) are still available.  i've posted my current roster before, but for the sake of ease, i'll put it here again.  we can hold 15 guys.  so...are any of these guys worth adding at the expense of someone i've already got.  there are no time limits on keeping anyone...they're mine until they're called up or i drop them.

remaining players are:

Jonathan Poterson
Hunter Pence
Taylor Tankersley
William Bray
Eric Hurley
James Howell
Justin Orenduff
Tyler Lumsden
Matthew Fox
Jay Rainville
Jeffrey Marquez

my current prospect roster:

Matt Cain
Angel Guzman
Thomas Diamond
Jeff Niemann
Chris Nelson
Brian McCann
Ryan Harvey
Felix Pie
Jason Hammel
John Danks
Josh Barfield
Mitch Einertson
Ervin Santana
Gio Gonzalez
Brad Nelson

i've read decent stuff about tankersly, but that's about it.  anybody here worth nabbing?

i don't see him on anyone's list of 3b prospects, but he seems to be hitting pretty well at 3a.  is he just a minors lifer or does he have a legit shot at the bigs?  is he a contact guy or does he have some pop?  has anyone seen him play this year?  how would he compare to edwin encarnacion, andy laroche, or josh fields at present and for ceiling?

i'm looking at several lists that go 500 deep in the prospect ranking thing and i can't find him on any of them.  so how is it that this guy is hitting .390 and nobody talks about him?  is he buried as long as glaus is in place?

Last year I took over a keeper team in disarray.  The league has 20 teams, a 25 man roster, and a 15 man prospect list.

When I inherited my team it had 3 prospects on the BA top 100 list, and none in the top 50.  The major league roster had a few valuable guys and then a lot of questionable people.  Since there was no hope of winning anything last year, I traded Rolen, Konerko, and Clemens, and then continued to move guys I gained in return until I had a pretty decent prospect list and 4 first round draft picks.

My trouble now is that I'm not 100% sure on who I'm dropping to make room for my new picks.  I also have an early 2nd round pick and it seems that a couple of guys I had slated for my 16th overall pick could still be there.  So...here's my list and my picks.  Feedback on who I should drop would be appreciated.  I'll include my majors roster, too, so that the overall need thing is more obvious.

My draft picks were:

2nd overall: Chris Nelson
3rd overall: Jeff Niemann
4th overall: Thomas Diamond
16th overall: Mitch Einertson
27th overall: (could be Golson, Pedrioa, Waldrop, Townsend)

My current prospect list is:

Matt Cain
Angel Guzman
Ervin Santana
Blake Hawksworth
Jason Hammel
John Danks
Brian McCann
Ryan Harvey
Felix Pie
Josh Barfield
Brad Nelson
Luke Scott
Omar Quintanilla
Josh Anderson
EMPTY SLOT

My thoughts are that Brad Nelson, Josh Anderson, and Omar Quintinilla are gone, making room for 4 people.  I could move Luke Scott to my Majors roster, but wonder if he's worth it.  Also, if one of those players is available at pick 27, would you make room for them and who would you move?

I won't include my entire Majors roster, but here's my key young guys I hope to build around.

Jason Bay
Adrian Gonzalez
Jason Werth
Omar Infante
Ben Broussard
Scot Podsednik
Guillermo Quiroz
Josh Kroeger
Ben Hendrickson
John Van Benschoten (DL)
David Aardsma
Carlos Hernandez
Denny Bautista
Noah Lowry

Thanks for your input.  I am a "build it" kind of guy rather than a "trade to win it all now" kind of guy.  Over the past year I have learned more than anyone should ever know about prospects, and I'm just scratching the surface.  Oh, and I love the site AND John Sickels.  You've been one of the key guys in my new-found knowledge!