Hi everyone! It's good to be back. I hope everyone is doing well. Anyway, here's the next installment of our top prospect list. Tom just checked in with #46-50 yesterday.

45. Wilmer Becerra, OF/SS - a 17-year old signed out of Venezuela at just 16, Becerra came over as a shortstop but his future is apparently in the outfield. Becerra is one of many significant international free agent signings the Jays have made during the Alex Anthopolous era. He will have a long way to go, but he could see some rookie ball in 2012. Becerra, a righthanded hitter, has speed and strength. It's unclear whether he'll be able to stick in center field, but he has drawn positive comments for his work ethic and makeup. Obviously, his development as a hitter will be all-important.

44. Dawel Lugo, SS - Another significant international free agent signing, Lugo hails from Bani, Dominican Republic and was also signed as a 16-year old. The Jays spent $1.3 million on the young shortstop. At 6', 175 lbs at just 16, Lugo isn't fleet of foot and so isn't a lock to stick at shortstop, but he is said to have good hands and a strong arm. It's unclear whether he'll be able to continue at short for a while in the mold of a Jhonny Peralta, or whether he'll be moving to third base in a few years. Lugo projects well as a hitter, with good bat speed and natural loft in his swing, so he looks like he could be a good power bat for the infield down the line. Lugo was assigned to the Dominican Summer League after his signing but you'd think he would have a shot at rookie ball this year.

43. Anthony DeSclafani, RHP - DeSclarfani, a Freehold, NJ native (Bruuuuuuuce!!!) was signed by the Boston Red Sox out of high school (22nd round) but he chose to attend college at Florida University. DeSclafani was impressive in the famed Cape Cod Baseball League and had a nice junior season as a Gator before the Jays selected him 199th overall. DeSclafani hasn't started much in his young career but is said to have impressive stuff that hasn't quite translated into dominating stats because he hasn't quite harnassed it yet.

42. Christian Lopes, SS/2B - Lopes, a southern california native selected by the Jays in the 7th round in 2011 out of high school, is said to have nice soft hands and to be athletic around the bag. Some concerns about his arm and his middling range and speed suggest that he might end up at second base, but he does project nicely as a hitter. The right-handed hitter is well-regarded for his skill with the bat and should field well enough at second to let his bat do the talking.

41. Kellen Sweeney, 3B - Sweeney, the brother of major-leaguer Ryan Sweeney, was a well-regarded second-round pick out of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Kellen had a nice adjustment to pro ball after being drafted (.267/.450/.444), which is always a good sign for a high school hitter. Unfortunately 2011 was a lost year for Sweeney - he was assigned to Bluefield and suffered a freak injury in which he fell during a rundown and broke a small bone at the base of his thumb. The good news - the injury wasn't anything chronic and had nothing to do with his arm (he had TJ surgery in high school). Therefore, with a healthy season, Sweeney could be right back on track, particularly considering he's still just 20 and won't be 21 until September. The Jays are reportedly still quite high on the lefty hitting infielder, who is said to have a sweet line drive swing and a nice approach at the plate.

Well that's all for now. Woodman will be back with the next five. Enjoy!

Part I is here.  

Hi everyone.  Well, the world series is still going, but we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the season past.  Please continue the discussion in the comments, that's what makes the conversation "dangling" - also, it's a great Simon and Garfunkel song.  Without further adeiu:

Continue reading this post »

Tough loss today against the Angels of Anaheim.  

On the Mound:

Brett Cecil started great, striking out the side in the first.  However, old friend Vernon Wells took him yard in the 2nd.  Cecil started the third well with two quick outs, but then was totally unable to get the third.  The Angels strung a number of well-hit balls together in the 2nd and took advantage of a walk to drop three more runs on him, capped off by a Vernon Wells ground-rule double.  Cecil did finally manage to get the last out in the 3rd, but that was it for him.  A poor start for Cecil, he was throwing strikes but doesn't appear to have been locating them well at all, and leaving too many balls up hurt him.  

At the Plate:  

The Jays were in a hole early and while they were able to muster some offense later in the game, it wasn't enough to get them back into it.  Colby Rasmus and Mike McCoy had the only extra base hits, both doubles, but Rasmus also struck out twice.  Kelly Johnson reached three times (actually four if you count him reaching on an error once), as did Eric Thames.  Edwin Encarnacion got the Jays off to a good start with an RBI single in the first, and added a sac fly later. 

From the Pen:

Kyle Drabek was even worse than Cecil, giving up 6 runs in just two innings, on 7 hits and a walk, including a steal of home by Erick Aybar (which I missed - was it cool?).  He didn't strike anybody out, and wasn't getting the ball down, either.  He was hurt by a costly error, but didn't help himself either.  

After Drabek things got better.  Joel Carreno, Shawn Camp, and Danny Farquhar combined to blank the Angels for the second half of the game.  Too bad they were in such a drastic hole.  Carreno was particularly good in his two scoreless innings, striking out 3 and walking none, and giving up just one single.  

In the Field:

Mike McCoy, who got the start at shortstop and did quite well at the plate, made a costly error.  I'll chalk it up to Peter Bourjos' insane speed, but I think McCoy is stretched at short in the majors.   

No Jays of the Day.  Cecil takes the Towers and Drabek gets whatever we call the reliever one.  

Title from the new Ryan Adams song "Lucky Now" which I am a bit surprised to find myself enjoying.  No, Tom, not Bryan Adams.  I know you are old and all those letters look the same, but they are different guys.  

The Jays pulled out their second straight come-from-behind victory today to win their home series against Baltimore.  

On the Mound:

Of course, the big story was Dustin McGowan's return to a big league starting rotation.  McGowan started for the first time in over three years in the majors and, as you'd expect, is still getting back into the swing of things.  McGowan made it through three innings (he started the fourth but didn't record an out) and did a good job preventing hitters from hitting the ball hard.  However, he had trouble locating his fastball and barely used his curveball or changeup.  On the plus side, McGowan did throw a couple of sliders for strikes and his fastball was in the mid 90s for most of his appearance.  On the minus side, he was leaving pitches up and walked five in three innings.  McGowan showed flashes of the old Dustin in the third inning when he quickly recorded three straight groundouts.  At this stage, it's all about how his arm feels and gradually his feel for his pitches will come back.  

At the Plate:

Some of the younger Jays are really showing well.  The Jays had some trouble against Baltimore starter Tommy Hunter for most of the game but they scratched across a few runs early and when they did get to Hunter, they got to him all the way.  Eric Thames had a couple of hits on some good at-bats.  David Cooper started the Jays' game-winning rally in the 7th with a home run and two batters later, Adam Loewen added a homer of his own to tie things up.  Loewen also had another good hit, while Cooper also worked a walk late in the game.  On the veteran side, Adam Lind had an RBI single and Jose Bautista drove in a couple with a hit and a sac fly.  Mike McCoy leading off also worked out, as he scored three runs and was adequate at short.  

From the Pen:

With McGowan only going three innings, it was a busy day for the pen, and there was good and bad.  Carlos Villanueva wasn't charged with any runs, but he let a couple of McGowan's runners score and 3 hits and a walk over 2 innings isn't very impressive, though he was keeping the ball down.  Shawn Camp wasn't great either, allowing a run in his inning amidst a couple of walks and a hit.  Things got much better in the late innings with Joel Carreno pitching a clean 7th to pick up the win when the Jays rallied in the bottom of the frame.  Casey Janssen came in for the "hold" in the 8th to protect the one-run lead and was terrific, dusting the Orioles with three quick easy groundouts and using just 8 pitches to do it.  Frank Francisco allowed a walk in the 9th to make things interesting, but managed to hold the line for the save.  

In the Field:

Adam Loewen started in centre and although I didn't get to see the game (thanks, dumb mlb blackout rules), he seemed fine.  Loewen was replaced by DeWayne Wise late in the game for defense.  

I am just hoping that the performance of guys like Cooper and Loewen hopefully buys them some playing time as we go down the stretch.  It's not a huge deal, and Farrell is doing a good job working a lot of players in, but I don't see the logic behind giving Mark Teahen at-bats over the younger players.  

Jays of the Day:  Francisco, Janssen, Loewen, McCoy, Cooper, Thames, and a very honourable mention to Dustin McGowan!

Wooo!  the Jays pulled out a 9th inning comeback today to edge Baltimore, 5-4.  

On the Mound:

Henderson Alvarez was quite good through seven innings, giving up 9 hits (8 singles) and one walk while striking out 4.  Alvarez was leaving the ball up early but soon settled in, and 12 of 15 batted balls were on the ground in a very impressive display.  

At the Plate:

Jose Bautista's 41st home run of the season, and Brett Lawrie's 9th were most of the offense through the first 8.  Then, in the ninth, David Cooper struck out to start the inning.  Old friend Kevin Gregg game in to try to close things out and struck out Brett Lawrie to put Baltimore just one out away.  Kelly Johnson worked a walk and Jose Molina singled him to second.  Adam Loewen came in to hit for DeWayne Wise and was hit by a pitch to load them up for pinch-hitter J.P. Arencibia.  Gregg then threw one away to let the tying run score.  Arencibia then came through with a single through the left side, and that was the game!

From the Pen:

Jesse Litsch gave up the go-ahead run in the 8th on a pair of doubles, but struck out the next two batters to end the inning.  Litsch then worked a scoreless 9th around a single with another strikeout and a couple of groundouts, and was rewarded for his efforts (which included getting the final out with a runner on third) with the win when the Jays came through in the 9th. 

In the Field:

Dewayne Wise had several nice plays in center but also made a costly error that almost gave Baltimore an extra insurance run in the 9th inning.  Henderson Alvarez threw one away early on a perfect bunt where he should've just held onto the ball.  Rookie mistake, right?  

Jays of the Day:  Alvarez, Johnson, Loewen, Bautista, and honourable mention to Lawrie for the home run.  

Today's title from the song "Easy Hearts" by Whiskeytown

The Jays' weekend series didn't get off to a great start last night against the denizens of Charm City, but today is another day.  I'm enjoying my weekend home before taking off on the road AGAIN - great weather, had a great 10 mile run this morning, played a little guitar, walked the dog, and now settling in for the Jays' game.  Also, if you haven't yet gotten a chance to check it out, scroll down - I wrote up a brief piece on Brett Cecil this morning.  

Henderson Alvarez pitches for the Jays - he's been an exciting watch so far this season.  He's averaged over 93 mph on his fastball and has plenty of movement to boot, but yet he has managed to control it very well so far this season (just a walk and a half per nine innings thusfar).  He's also displayed a nice hard slider with plenty of movement of its own as well as a quality changeup.  It has been groundballs aplenty for Alvarez, and combining grounders with low walk rates is a great way to succeed in the AL East.  I wouldn't mind penciling him into the 2012 rotation, even if he is being assisted by a .245 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate, neither of which is sustainable.  

Rick Vanden Hurk pitches for Baltimore and the Eindhoven, Netherlands native (perhaps a favourite of Woodman?) is making his first start of 2011.  

Toronto's Lineup:

Escobar, ss

Thames, lf

Bautista, rf

Lind, 1b

Teahen, dh

Lawrie, 3b

Johnson, 2b

Molina, c

Wise, cf

Let's go Jays!

Today's title from the song by Anamanaguchi

So, we took a look at Brandon Morrow after a bad start, so I thought it was only fair to take a look at Brett Cecil after a good start - Brett pitched into the 8th against his hometown team yesterday, scattering 7 singles and a walk and striking out 9 while generally keeping the ball down.  

As we all know, Cecil was demoted early in 2011 amidst some concerns about his velocity, while fellow lefty Jo-Jo Reyes was kept in the rotation (a move we here at Bluebird Banter opposed, it should be noted).  Since being recalled to the Jays and reinserted into the starting rotation on the last day of June, Cecil has a 3.83 ERA and has held batters to a .236/.296/.410 line.  While that is certainly aided by a .253 BABIP over that time period, his strikeout and walk numbers (68/27 over 98 innings) are also quite good and Brett's groundball numbers, which were awful at the start of the season, have also been improving to some extent.  

On the whole, Cecil's strikeout numbers have ticked up in 2011 from 2010, and that's including his rough start to the season, while his walk numbers have stayed about the same.  He has yielded more home runs in 2011, but that's primarily due to giving up more fly balls in general, a problem he appears to be in the process of rectifying.  Brett's FIP is ugly due to the home run numbers, and his tRA is ugly due to the decreased groundball numbers, but SIERA (4.16) and xFIP (4.35)  look  pretty respectable, particularly considering his rough start to the season.  

Cecil hasn't improved on 2010, in which he was worth 2.5 wins using fangraphs WAR (2 wins using BB Reference WAR), but to me he's more or less shown over the second half of the season that he can pretty much be relied upon to at least duplicate his 2010 numbers going forward - just enough strikeouts to get by with his stinginess with walks, and successful as long as he can keep the ball down.  

In terms of velocity, Cecil's fastball is down a little over one mph from 2010, but it has more horizontal movement and just as much vertical movement.  It certainly hasn't hurt his K numbers, which have improved from 2010.  Vertical movement is a real strength of Cecil's and if he can improve his fastball command, he should be able to induce a lot of groundballs.  Since he just turned 25 in July, there's still some time for him to do that.   Better groundball numbers would make Cecil a very solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.  

With Zach Stewart now out of the picture, Jesse Litsch seemingly relegated to the bullpen and Kyle Drabek not yet showing he can handle major league hitters, it's possible, even likely, that Brett Cecil will be one of the Jays' best five options coming out of camp in 2012, even if Dustin McGowan is able to continue his reemergence and stay healthy.  Guys like Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire, and Drew Hutchison have had nice seasons but the Jays likely won't consider them ready for the majors to start 2012, and guys who arguably are ready, like Brad Mills, aren't an upgrade over Cecil.

I think it's a good thing if Cecil has a role in the 2012 Jays starting rotation.  Continued focus on fastball location to get ahead in the count coupled with Cecil's quality secondary pitches could make Cecil a very solid pitcher in 2012 and at just 25/26 (he'll turn 26 right at the halfway point) with several more years of team control, he'd be an attractive trade piece for a number of teams.  Alternatively, the team could keep him as an insurance policy in case some of their young arms don't develop as hoped or the injury bug hits.  

What do you all think about Brett's role going forward?  

Today's title from the tune "Trusty Chords" by Hot Water Music.  Those guys rocked.  

Well, that was a fun one!  Who would've thought the Jays would have taken this four-game series after game two?  Lots of good stuff today. 

On the Mound:

Ricky Romero was terrific.  He kept Boston completely off the board until well into the 7th, striking out 7 and walking 3.  His final line doesn't look as good as he was, but trust me, he had his stuff working.  Things got a little dicey in the 7th when the Red Sox managed to package a walk with a couple of hits, partially aided by a Yunel Escobar mistake in the field.  Two runs charged to Romero scored on a single after he left the game.  A very fine start for Ricky. 

At the Plate:

One of the best things about today was some great contributions from some of the youngest Jays.  David Cooper had two doubles and an RBI single.  J.P. Arencibia hit a 3-run home run.  Eric Thames went deep as well, and Brett Lawrie added a single and double of his own.  Edwin Encarnacion also went deep and doubled.  

On the Mound:

Casey Janssen came in to relieve Romero in the 7th and gave up a groundball single before completing the inning.  He was terrific in the 8th, protecting the Jays' lead with a K, a popup, and a weak grounder.  Frankie Francisco was okay in the 9th.  He left a 1-2 pitch up and in and it got smashed, and then managed to close out the game around another couple of baserunners.  He was throwing hard and with plenty of movement, but didn't seem to have a great idea of where he was going with the ball.  

All in all, great series, and great fun in the game thread.  Jays of the Day:  Romero, Arencibia, with honourable mention for Lawrie and Cooper.  A Domani!

Today's title from "The Ice of Boston" by the Dismemberment Plan.  Red Sox fans have to be drowning their sorrows after this series.  

Hi everyone - Hugo here.  Well, yesterday's game turned out fine, but Brandon Morrow isn't filling me with confidence.  Brandon is a key piece moving forward and I thought it made sense to take a look at his body of work as a starter and what's happened in 2011. 

In 300 innings since becoming a starter with the Jays, Morrow has great strikeout numbers (10.7 K/9), fine walk numbers considering his K rate (3.7 BB/9 for a 2.86 K/BB, and a big improvement this season) but only an 87 ERA+.  I don't like the increasing trend towards flyballs (9 fly balls to only 4 on the ground yesterday) - his ratio has gone from about 1.0 GB/FB in 2010 to just .8 in 2011.  The increased reliance on fly ball outs has meant more home runs this season and has hurt his tRA, which was a terrific 3.17 last season but has slumped to over 4 this year.  (btw, tRA is similar to FIP and xFIP but takes into account batted ball types, which FIP and xFIP do not, making it a favourite of mine)  Morrow's fielding independent stats suggest he should be more than capable as a starter, but at some point you'd expect the results to match up.  What gives? 

Morrow can't blame BABIP (.310 in 2011 - in line with what you'd expect from his career numbers and his line drive rate) or bad luck on fly balls (10.4 HF/FB, greater than last season but not out of whack, and his FIP and xFIP, which is the same as FIP but normalizes home run/fly ball rate to league average, are nearly identical).  One possible culprit, which folks have mentioned, is his ability (or lack thereof) to pitch from the stretch.  Brandon didn't really struggle with this in 2010 - his LOB% was 2% lower than league average, which is perhaps a little higher than what you'd expect from a better than average pitcher like Morrow, but hardly cause for alarm.  But 2011 has been a different story.  Brandon has stranded about 10% fewer runners than league average, grossly inflating his ERA.  Moreover, with runners on, hitters have a .287/.357/.502 line against Morrow, while they are hitting just .244/.318/.399 against him overall.   It doesn't appear to be a significant control issue in terms of finding the zone, since his K and BB rates are about the same with runners on and the bases empty.  However, anecdotally, Morrow appears to have some trouble locating from the stretch, and that could be responsible for hitters' higher BABIP and higher home run rates in those situations (or it could be just plain bad luck - notably, Morrow was just as good with runners on as with the bases empty in 2010).  Indeed, Morrow is substantially better at inducing ground balls when the bases are empty, and hitters have been much more likely to hit fly balls when runners are on, suggesting that he perhaps may have trouble keeping the ball down when pitching from the stretch.  That is consistent with what I've observed.  It could also mean that Morrow is pitching for the strikeout more with runners on, leading to more fly balls, but Brandon's K rates don't support that theory.  

I'm actually more concerned by Morrow's increased reliance on just two pitches - in 2011 he has thrown sliders and fastballs about 90% of the time, which isn't exactly keeping hitters guessing.  I do think this is hurting Morrow, and I'd look to his line against lefties for evidence.  Against lefties Morrow's slider isn't an asset and so he has to mix in his other pitches more.  Morrow's line against lefties in 2011 is excellent - they are hitting just .227/.299/.363 against him.  This is particularly interesting to look at in light of his 2010 numbers, where he was mixing up his pitches better and was basically the same against righties and lefties.  So when Morrow mixes his pitches more, he is equally successful against righties and lefties - when he doesn't, he is still successful against lefties (against whom he has no choice but to mix his pitches) but far less successful against righties (.266/.343/.466).   

 My thought is that Brandon should be working on two things to get ready for next season: locating his pitches when pitching from the stretch, and working in his offspeed stuff more against righthanded hitters.  While those pitches haven't really been successful for him this season, I think increased variety would signficantly help his fastball, which has basically been a neutral pitch for him this season, which is significantly worse than you'd expect from a guy with a heater like Brandon's.  Your thoughts?

Today's title from the Crooked Fingers song "You Threw a Spark." 

One more after the jump.  Feel free to post your own Jays photos in the comments, and thanks to Tom and Carm for the Jays duds!

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Quick diversion from the draft just for a moment.  Craig made this point in a comment in a thread earlier today and I think it's important enough to talk about some more, not because it is wrong -- in fact, I think it gets to an important point   Here's his post:

Oh my god when will people quit sh*tting on people with advanced stats.

 

Honestly, it makes BBB less enjoyable. (This isn’t directed at you benk per se)

Every day, every post, someone makes a comment that "Player ‘x’ is doing well or player ‘y’ is struggling, and someone has to jump down their throat quoting their xFIP or some other stat that they read on Fangraphs. Well take it over to Fangraphs. I get the advances baseball stats but not to the extent that it’s taking over baseball discussions. At some point we don’t even need to watch the games, just read about it in the boxscores.

"Oh, Corey Patteron went 5/5 today, he played well" – Commenter #1
"OH MY GOD, NO HE DIDN’T, HE SUCKS BECAUSE HIS LD% WAS 12.3454234%" – Commenter #2

It’s getting a little tiresome especially when it’s cloaked with an air of "if you look at batting average for hitters or wins per for pitchers, you are an idiot".

An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – for support rather than for illumination

The problem with this line of reasoning is that then when someone makes an argument using statistics, Craig would have to commit to doing them the same courtesy and not arguing back based on his first-hand observations.  Neither one of those is reasonable and it isn't acceptable for either to be condescending.  I admit I have less patience for people who are condescending to sabermetrics, because, well, they're just more wrong (j/k!), but everyone needs to be able to express their viewpoint without acting as though the other has nothing important to say.  There was a time when folks inclined to sabermetrics were a small minority on the site and bore the brunt of the abuse; now it's about 50/50 or so.  

See, the great thing about baseball is everyone can enjoy it in their own way. The most fun I've had watching baseball was when I knew absolutely nothing about advanced stats.  At the same time, my scientist's brain always needs to understand as much about everything as possible and has driven me to better understand the nuances of the game I have always loved.  

Some people can watch every game, never know a stat beyond those that pop up on the tv screen, and love it.  My mom's brothers are some of the biggest baseball fans I have ever known, and they think Derek Jeter deserved every one of his gold gloves.  Another fan can be the hardest-core sabermetrician and elevate stats over first-hand reports every time. Neither has a monopoly on truth. Sometimes the old-school fan is right, other times it is the sabermetrics guy/gal.  I'd expect the sabermetrician to be right somewhat more often only because he is more willing to seek truth wherever it exists and not worry if it doesn't correspond to his preconceived notions, but my biases aren't important here.  And of course very few fans are at either pole - most, particularly here, are somewhere in the middle.

Even more important than being right or wrong about a specific argument, there’s no right or wrong way to enjoy the game. Baseball is great because it allows for people to experience it in completely different ways. If we haven’t done the best job of making sure that the sabermetrically inclined don’t belittle others, that’s on us. But we’re not going to condone them being told to shut up or not to argue their points either. If baseball is big enough for old school fans and sabermetricians, so is B^3.  Or, more succinctly:  Just another crowd. We need a gathering instead.

Title from "I am a Scientist" by Guided by Voices

The Jays squandered some run scoring chances and came up short today in Charm City.  

Ricky Romero pitched fairly well, but made one huge mistake, a Mark Reynolds grand slam in the 6th inning.  Romero's final line doesn't look all that impressive, but he pitched into the 8th and two of the three walks he gave up were in the 8th.  He struck out 5 and gave up all five Baltimore runs, 4 all on the one swing, of course.  

At the plate the Jays had their chances but couldn't capitalize.  They managed 8 hits and 4 walks, but bailed out young starter Jake Arrieta in the 2nd and 3rd innings and it cost them.  The third was particularly rough as the Jays managed to load the bases on a bunt single and two walks with no one out, but Juan Rivera grounded into a 5-2-3 double play and J.P. Arencibia flew out.  

Corey Patterson had a great day at the plate with another 3 hits, including a solo home run.  Rajai Davis sparked a run with two steals after reaching on a fielder's choice in the 4th, which was great, but after singling him in, Mike McCoy was thrown out trying to steal and stopping the inning dead in its tracks.  Live by the sword, die by the sword.  Davis also drove in a run on a sacrifice fly.  

Not too much more to say about today, it was a rough one but that's baseball - one swing of the bat can change everything.  If nothing else, it was nice to have Adam Lind back in the lineup.  He was 0-3 today, but did draw a walk in the middle of what looked like a very promising third inning, but then Juan Rivera grounded into a double play.  

The Jays can still win the away series tomorrow.  Jo-Jo Reyes will take the hill for Toronto, while Jeremy Guthrie pitches for Baltimore.  A shame I can't make the game since it is right here in the next town over, but work is ridiculous at the moment.  It took my little girl coming down with tonsilitis for me to not do any work for the first day in over a month.  

Today's title comes from the Decemberists' song "June Hymn" which seemed appropriate given the amazing June weather we've had the past few days -- I did manage to go for a nice long run this morning and then also cut out of work at about 4:30 to go for a late afternoon hike.  The inter-bird matchup we have made me think of that line from the song.    Night, all.  

Hi everyone.  Rough game last night, but the Jays can still take the series tonight with a win.  

Kyle Drabek pitches for the Jays and while he has shown flashes of what he can do, his first season in the majors has also showed his limitations at this point in his career.  His K/BB ratio sits at 1:1, though he has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground.  That won't be enough for sustained success in the AL East, though, unless he can also improve on his very pedestrian K/9 and very poor BB/9 numbers.  

Josh Tomlin pitches for Cleveland and and he's having a very nice season thusfar.  His K numbers are nothing to write home about, but he's been great at limiting walks and fortunate at stranding runners.  On the other hand, home runs have been a weak spot, so the Jays should be thinking about launching one tonight.  Tomlin's tRA (5.31) suggest he's been more fortunate than good, but anytime you're striking out 350% more batters than you're walking, you're doing something right.  

Hi everyone.  Today's title comes from these two amazing "hastily made tourism videos"  about the City of Cleveland, a city I have come to know all too well over the years (I had a case there).  If you have not seen these very short Cleveland "Tourism" Videos, you really need to.  Lucky me to be filling in for Johnny on a Cleveland game. 

The suddenly hot Jays take on the First Nations Native Americans today at the Rogers Centre.  Mitch Talbot pitches today for Cleveland, while Brandon Morrow goes for Toronto.  Morrow had a sputtering start to the season due to injuries, but he's still having a very good season.  His 4.38 ERA doesn't reflect his true contributions at all - but take a look at his 3.17 xFIP and 3.03 tRA supported by fantastic strikeout (11.08 K/9) numbers and a walk rate he's managed to keep under 4 per 9.  His swinging strike rate is almost 50% better than league average, so it's seemingly only a matter of time until his overall numbers start reflecting his great pitching. 

Lineups:

Cleveland:  Brantley, dh /  Cabrera, ss / Choo, rf / , Buck, lf / Santana, c / Sizemore, cf / Cabrera, 2b / LaPorta, 1b / Hannahan, 3b

Toronto:  Escobar, ss / Patterson, lf / Bautista, rf / Rivera, rf / Arencibia, c / Hill, 2b / Thames, dh / Davis, cf / Nix, 3b

Let's go Blue Jays!

So...yeah.  We've all had days like that.  Let's agree to pretend that one never happened?  

Two Blue Jays who had frustrating 2010 seasons lead the way past Detroit in the first game of a four-game series, 7-4.

On the Mound:

Jesse Litsch has been very good for Toronto this season and continued that with a great start.  Litsch had his cutter working from the get-go and it, as well as his other pitches, got him through 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball, with 9 strikeouts and 3 walks.  Litsch only gave up one extra-base hit, a double by Magglio Ordonez, and got 7 ground balls to 3 fly balls to boot.  Jesse now has 31 Ks and 14 walks in 35 2/3 innings on the season, and a 48% ground ball rate on top of that, which makes for a stellar 3.35 xFIP.  I don't know whether he can keep up his strikeouts or whether it's just a blip, but striking out almost 8 per 9 innings on top of Jesse's ground ball skills has made him a very impressive pitcher so far this season.  Those who wrote him off should be feeling rather silly.  

At the Plate:

Adam Lind has been more or less carrying the Jays offensively for the last little bit, and yesterday was no exception, though plenty of others contributed as well.  Lind started the scoring with a single the other way in the first, and added a solo home run in the bottom of the 7th when the game was still close.  Lind's line is now .318/.347/.524.  More walks would be nice, and Lind is perhaps swinging at too many pitches out of the zone (36% of them) but Lind is crushing the ball (26.2% of his batted balls are line drives) right now, including pitches outside of the strike zone, and his strikeouts are back to 2009 levels.  He's also playing a great first base.  

It wasn't just the Adam Lind show yesterday for the Jays' offense - Corey Patterson had three hits, including two doubles (one of which scored two runs), out of the two spot.  Patterson has been a nice surprise as fourth outfielder, filling in adequately for Davis in center field, and contributing a .274/.315/.440 line at the plate, with an extra-base hit in more than 10% of his plate appearances.  

J.P. Arencibia had two run-scoring hits, a single up the middle in the first inning, and a double the other way into the gap in the third inning.  Juan Rivera had three singles.  

From the Pen:

Jason Frasor relieved Litsch in the 7th and got the last two outs with no trouble.  Jon Rauch pitched a clean 8th with three fly ball outs around a strikeout in which the batter reached on a wild pitch.  Shawn Camp had a lot of trouble in the 9th, though.  Yunel Escobar made an error to start things off, and Camp sort of came apart after that.  Magglio Ordonez lined out to even up Camp's luck, and Jhonny Peralta singled up the middle.  Camp got the next batter to ground to Adam Lind, moving the runners to second and third.  Camp then gave up a double to Brandon Inge and singles to Don Kelly and Scott Sizemore before John Farrell saw fit to take Camp out of the game.  They were all unearned runs after the error, but, as I said, the lineout after that about evened up Camp's luck for the inning.  Camp is still having a fine season, though how he does that while only striking out one batter every three innings is something of a mystery.  Frank Fransisco got the final out, a lineout to Johnny Mac.  

Today, the Jays look to get back within a game of .500.  Ricky Romero will pitch against Justin Verlander in a matchup of excellent young pitchers.  The game starts at 4:07, see some of you in the game thread!  

Today's title comes from Detroit's own Temptations and their awesome song "Since I Lost My Baby"

Las Vegas lost to Sacramento, 5-4:

Travis Snider was 4-4 with a walk and a double.   Nothing left to do in the minors.

That was it for extra base-hits.  

Brad Mills, by the way, had another great start on Friday.  The Vegas offense did nothing, but Mills threw 6 scoreless innings while striking out 9 and walking just 2.  

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