SB Nation User Blog: hugo

Jays Trade Brandon League, Acquire Brandon Morrow

hugo — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 12:32:30 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

The Jays exchange Brandon League for a new erratic-pitching Brandon (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

Ken Rosenthal reported last night that the Jays traded sometimes-brilliant, occasionally-frustrating pitcher Brandon League to the Seattle Mariners for sometimes-brilliant, occasionally-frustrating pitcher Brandon Morrow. The Jays also included a "prospect" in the deal but we don't know who that is - although according to MLB Trade Rumors, it should be someone pretty good to make it a fair deal.

Morrow, the 5th overall draft pick in the 2006 draft, was rushed to the majors, as per Seattle's organizational philosophy and made the team's opening day roster in 2007 as a reliever. He has made a few starts since then, but things have kept pushing him back into the bullpen - from the acquisition of Erik Bedard to various arm problems to his own erraticness. His pitching for the past three seasons has been marked by respectable overall numbers other than sky-high walk rates, which have really hurt him. There's no doubt that there is significant upside in Morrow - the walks are a huge problem but at 25, there's still a chance Morrow can put it behind him. Morrow is eligible for arbitration. It's hard not to like someone with a career 9.3 K/9 at 25, but there's also a significant history of arm problems. I really hope the Jays make him a starter this season and just leave him there - if the Jays trade League and one of their top prospects for a reliever I won't be happy with the deal.

As for League, he put up fantastic peripheral numbers last year (3.6 K/BB and a strong groundball rate) but they didn't translate into a good ERA. I'm pretty sure it was just bad luck - a reliever's ERA isn't a very good indicator of true performance because the sample size of innings is too small and a reliever's ERA is very dependent on the pitching of others (since they often leave or enter in the middle of an inning). The surfing Yonsei is one of just a few pitchers I have seen who I would say are truly one-of-a-kind. I would have liked to just stick League in the closer's role in 2010 and let him run with it, with Downs and Frasor likely to leave after this season, but if the Jays think they can make Morrow into a starter and didn't give up too much else in the deal, I'm okay with him leaving. I won't be surprised if League has a fantastic season for the Mariners though, and becomes a key piece of their bullpen in a season in which they hope to contend. League is under team control through 2012.

Ultimately, this deal will come down to who the prospect is, and we'll update as soon as we know (or feel free to do it for us in the comments, as well as let us know what you think of the deal)

Leaguer, if this is it, it's been fun having you on the Jays. You often amazed, occasionally frustrated with your crazy sinker and constantly morphing mechanics. Your tattoos gave hope to Asian-Americans everywhere that they could be thought of as cool. Good luck and enjoy the West Coast!

Update: Jays outfield prospect Johermyn Chavez was the prospect included in the deal. Chavez had a very nice season last year in A ball but is still a ways off from the majors.

So Far We Are: Meet Your New Blue Jays, Brett Wallace

hugo — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:22:55 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

5 months ago: Team USA third baseman Brett Wallace snags a ball that bounced into the air hit by World Team's Jesus Montero during the first inning of the All-Star Futures baseball game at Busch Stadium on Sunday, July 12, 2009, in St. Louis. Wallace threw to second to force out Barbaro Canizares, but Montero was safe at first. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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This is the second part in a 3-part series that will take a bit of a closer look at the three players obtained by the Blue Jays in the Roy Halladay trades. In part I, we took a look at righty pitching sensation Kyle Drabek.

As you will remember, Brett Wallace (I keep wanting to call him David Wallace after the Dunder Mifflin CFO) wasn't actually traded for Roy Halladay. Rather, the Blue Jays received outfield prospect Michael Taylor in that trade, but had already reached a deal with the Oakland Athletics to flip Taylor for Wallace. What made that trade possible was that neither Taylor nor Wallace, who came over from St. Louis in the Matt Holliday trade, had been drafted by their respective teams and so neither GM had a real vested interest in their player - it's rare to see a GM trade one of his draftee top prospects for another untested propsect before either has ever seen the majors.

Unlike Taylor, who was a 5th round pick, Wallace came with a draft pedigree - he was drafted in the 1st round by the Cardinals in the 2008 amateur player draft out of Arizona State University. That wasn't the first time he was drafted, either - the Jays themselves took Wallace in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft, but the Sonoma, California native chose to become a Sun Devil instead. He met fellow Californian and new organizational teammate Aaron Hill at the all-star break last season when Hill started for the AL and Wallace played in the Futures Game.

In college, Wallace quickly established himself as one of the NCAA's best hitters - he won two triple crowns and was the Pac-10's player of the year twice. Like most college draftees, Wallace was assigned to short-season A ball, but played his way out of A entirely when he was moved to AA for the end of the season. Wallace started 2009 in double A and then went up to AAA, where he especially turned it on after his trade to Oakland's system, hitting .302/.365/.505 in just over 200 plate appearances. Folks that thought Taylor's numbers in the minors to be more impressive than Wallace's just weren't considering that Wallace was younger, played at a higher level, and put up those numbers in his first full season of professional ball (as opposed to Taylor's second full season), which is extremely impressive. Make no mistake, this kid can hit.

His defense, on the other hand, is another thing. While Wallace is a third-base prospect, and has earned praise for his good hands and arm, there has been significant doubt that Wallace can stay at the hot corner. It has been said he is a "good athlete stuck in a bad body" and most baseball people just don't think he has the range or quickness to stick at third. The Jays have already announced that they plan to use him at first base, even though no one is blocking him at third base in the minors and the Jays have Brian Dopirak, who played much of 2009 at AAA, and David Cooper, who played at AA, at first base (though Cooper's star has faded, it's too early to give up on him).

At the plate, Wallace, a left-handed hitter, is described as a "pure" hitter with a solid approach at the plate, reluctant to expand the strike zone on the pitcher's terms. As scouts have noted, Wallace has a very strong lower body he uses to generate power and is very good at staying on his back leg to generate power and lay off bad pitches. Hitters get in trouble when they get onto their front side too early, as we saw all too often with Alex Rios last season. With Wallace's lower body strength and ability to stay on his back side, I think substantial power will come, and his approach bodes well for him to consistently reach base as well. Although Wallace didn't display that patience in AAA last season, it is understandable as he was taking his first taste of AAA in his first full big league season. I'd expect walk rates over 10% this season in AAA.

As a hitter, Wallace has been described as almost ready for the big leagues. It will take some time for him to learn first base, I'm guessing, so that will keep him in the minors for a bit, but with Lyle Overbay perhaps on his way out, Wallace could be in the big leagues in 2009. He says he wasts to make it as hard as possible for the Jays to send him to AAA. It's hard not to be excited about the offensive upside someone like Wallace brings - particularly when combined with fellow young lefty mashers Travis Snider and Adam Lind. We can be patient with Wallace, but I'm not sure we will have to be patient for very long.

Please share your hopes for Wallace and your thoughts on the Taylor-for-Wallace trade in the comments.

Reds Re-Up with Rolen

hugo — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:16:51 -0000

Reds Re-Up with Rolen

Cincinnati's beat reporter Mark Sheldon reports that the Reds have agreed to a restructuring and extension of Scott Rolen's deal with the team. Rolen will see only $6 million of the $11 million he had coming to him in 2010, but is now set for 2011 and 2012 at $6.5 million per season. He will also see a $5 million signing bonus deferred without interest.

An interesting deal for a team like the Reds to extend a player in his mid-30s, but $6 million is extremely affordable for a player of Rolen's calibre. Fangraphs suggests Rolen was close to a 4 win player above replacement (about $17 million) last year and even in a poor year offensively, his glove is probably worth over $6 million alone.

I was happy with the Rolen trade for the Jays, but if they hadn't made the deal, I wouldn't've minded this deal a bit for them, not with the Jays' organizational situation at the hot corner. Sheldon mentions Cincy's 3rd base prospect Juan Francisco, but it's hard to get excited about someone who walks less than 5% of the time, strikes out almost a quarter of the time, and is mediocre with the glove, though he has a bit of pop.

2010 Amateur Draft Very Early Preview

hugo — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:49:41 -0000

More photos » by FRANK GUNN - AP

7 days ago: Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos listens to questions after announcing that the team had traded pitcher Roy Halladay during a news conference in Toronto on Wednesday Dec. 16, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn )

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Well, most of the Type A free agents are signed so the draft order for the Jays (and the rest of the league) is starting to crystallize. As of now, here are the Jays' picks (h/t to River Ave Blues, a fantastic site that does a nice job representing Yankees fans in the interwebs)

First Round:

#11 (the Jays' own first-round pick)

Sandwich Round:

#33 (supplemental pick for Scutaro, which turns out to be higher than the Red Sox pick they get for Vespa)

#38 (for failing to sign James Paxton, a 2009 sandwich rounder)

Second Round:

#52 (the Jays' second round pick)

#69 (for failing to sign Jake Eliopolous, a 2009 second-round pick)

#70 (the pick coming over from the Red Sox for Marco)

Third Round:

#84 (the Jays' third-round pick)

#104 (for their failure to sign Jake Barrett, a Jays' 3rd-round pick in 2009).

If Rod Barajas signs with another team, the Jays will get another pick in the supplemental round, probably somewhere in the 40s. That would make 9 picks in the first 3 rounds, and 5 in the top 50 or so. General Manager Alex Anthopolous mentioned in his chat yesterday that he plans to use this draft to "flood the Minor league system with high-end talent."

Between the players the Jays got in the Halladay trade, those coming over in the Rolen trade last season, and this year's draft, particularly with Anthopolous' renewed emphasis on scouting and stated willingness to exceed slot (not that that helped all that much last year), I think it's reasonable to expect that the Jays minor-league system can become a consensus top-10 system by the time the dust clears after the draft. That's actually quite good considering how many young players the Jays have promoted from the system in the past couple of seasons to the major-league team. And it will go a long way toward making the Jays competitive down the road without resorting too heavily to the free-agent market. I've always believed you bring your core players up through the system and with trades, and go to free agents only to plug holes when you're almost ready to contend.

While having so many picks would potentially allow the Jays to really distribute their picks among position, I have to admit, I don't think they should prioritize any positions really. I think teams get into trouble when they do that. I'd use the draft to try to nab the best talent available that I think will sign. I do think it's important to look at a mix of more polished, "safer" players and more athletic, "upside"-type players.

Jays GM Alex Anthopolous Live Web Chat

hugo — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 15:59:00 -0000

Jays GM Alex Anthopolous Live Web Chat

Jordan Bastian tweeters (no, he is not actually using a coil suspended within a magnetic field in order to produce a high frequency at the upper limits of human hearing but I feel self-conscious about using correct twitter lingo) that Jays GM Alex Anthoplous will be doing a live web chat with fans over on bluejays.com this afternoon at 4 pm.

So Far We Are: Meet Your New Jays, Kyle Drabek

hugo — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:10:44 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

7 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 28, 2007, file photo, Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Drabek ptiches against Florida State during a spring training baseball game in Clearwater, Fla. Drabek was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009, part of a four-team trade that sent Roy Halliday to the Phillies and Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)

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The lone pitcher acquired in the Roy Halladay trade bonanza was Kyle Drabek, and he seems to have a keen sense of that already. Drabek, son of major league pitcher and former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, was born on December 8, 1987 in Victoria, Texas. He grew up and attended high school in Texas as well, and has admitted he's not so much a disciple of Halladay as he is of fellow Texan fireballer Josh Beckett.

Drabek was drafted out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies in the first round of the 2006 amateur player draft, the 18th overall pick in that draft. I think it's fair to say that Kyle would have gone much higher in the draft had there not been concerns about his "makeup" - specifically, events including a single-car collision in which Drabek was involved, a public intoxication charge that was later dropped, and more-than-occasional flare-ups of a fiery temper on and off the field. I'm not one to make excuses, but none of this sounds all that terrible for a 17-year old kid, particularly if such incidents are in the past, which it appears as though they are - I can't recall any such stories in the past few years - indeed, all the stories are about how far Drabek has come, on and off the mound.

Drabek was drafted for his lively fastball and his big curveball, two pitches which put him squarely in the "power pitcher" category. He didn't pitch for very long in the minors, though, before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery. The Phillies were concerned about how Drabek might respond and hooked him up with a career minor leaguer, Mike Zagurski, as a roomate, and the two developed a good friendship. Maybe it worked, or maybe their concerns were misplaced, because Drabek has really come along way since that surgery - altering his mechanics and working on his change-up, a crucial third pitch that Drabek admits still needs more work. Having a major-league quality change will be crucial to making Drabek's fastball as effective as it can be.

Drabek only made 8 starts in 2008, but did well in his first taste of A ball. 2009, though, was a very big year for Kyle. He pitched at advanced A and AA, making 15 starts at AA, showing why he was so well regarded coming out of the draft, and not seeming to show any lingering effects from his ligament replacement. Overall, Drabek put up a 3.19 ERA over 158 innings, actually a bit of an alarming increase from 2008 - but nice that his arm strength is at that level. He struck out 150 and walked 50 over that span, putting up very impressive K and walk rates - the walk rate is especially impressive for a young power pitcher. Drabek's MO on the mound is pretty simple - attack the zone with a first-pitch strike, typically with his fastball. When he's ahead of the hitter, he uses the curve to put them away.

It's actually quite impressive that Drabek, who is only 22, has progressed so far and so well in the minors even though he lost almost an entire season to TJ surgery. You don't do that unless you are both very talented and very dedicated. And if he can control his emotions on the mound, his power pitcher arsenal and fiery competitiveness, which the Jays love, scream front of the rotation.

Looking ahead, Drabek will begin the season in AA, and treat the fine people of the Granite State to his pitching. I don't think it's totally impossible that he could pitch in the majors this season, but it's much more likely to be next season. He stil needs work on his changeup and there's no reason to rush him. The young righty seems to have a bright career ahead of him and, while of course I'm sad to see Doc go, I'm glad it will be with the Blue Jays.

Today's title from a great song by the French Kicks.

Wednesday Open Thread: the Aftermath

hugo — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:40:44 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

So long, Doc. You are one of a kind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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Just wanted to check in with some links around the blogosphere about the Halladay trade and then open it up to y'all:

At Fangraphs, Dave Cameron takes a look at the trade (not the Wallace-Taylor part):

Let’s start with the Blue Jays. They were obviously over a barrel with Halladay after the debacle of trying to trade him this summer. New GM Alex Anthopolous knew he needed to move his ace for the best package he could get, but also come away with enough young talent to sell this as more than an admission that they screwed up in July. In the trio of young players they’re getting from the Phillies, they were able to do just that.

Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud are high quality prospects. For one year of Halladay (and $6 million in cash, which isn’t trivial but less useful to a Toronto team that won’t win in 2010), that’s a very strong return. Anthopolous did well to come away with that level of talent, given his leverage in the situation.

Also at Fangraphs, Dave Allen takes a look at Roy Halladay's stuff. Yeah, he's good. Now, I don't get why Philadelphia felt like they had to deal Cliff Lee on the same day they acquired Doc, since it really wasn't a three team trade. I would've thought they could have done better holding on to him for the best possible return, considering that worst-case scenario is probably a year of Cliff Lee well below market value for a competing team, followed by Type A free agent status. That said, I don't get why Phillies fans aren't happier with the deal. You got Roy Halladay, guys. It's a win. And he signed a team-friendly extension, and you replenished your farm system a bit by dealing Lee.
The Hardball Times likes the deal for the Jays too, including the acquisition of Wallace for Taylor:

Toronto made out extremely well, netting a high-upside pitcher in Kyle Drabek that they don't have anywhere in the system. Toronto has solid rotation depth, especially in the major leagues, but no one you can give the ball to on Opening Day and expect to win. Drabek can be that guy.

Travis D'Arnaud has been coveted by Toronto ever since he was selected a pick ahead of the Jays in 2007. The Blue Jays have J.P. Arencibia in their farm system, but there are questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and D'Arnaud is the better value anyways. Michael Taylor was a Blue Jay for only the briefest of moments, as he was immediately shipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace.

While Taylor might evolve into a 20/20 player and provide good overall value out of the outfield, Wallace is the type of hitter Toronto needs in its next wave of youngsters. Toronto absolutely needs the upside that Wallace brings with the bat and can afford to worry about defense later. Assuming Wallace can't stick at third (which is not a done deal just yet), he has the options of moving to first or designated hitter, with no one blocking him at either position.

Toronto has put themselves in great position to field a young, competitive club as soon as 2012. That's all they could have asked for in a trade of Halladay.

I have to admit, I wasn't crazy about moving Taylor for Wallace at first, as it seems like Wallace will have to move to first base and I was looking forward to a season of Taylor, not Jose Bautista, in right field for the Jays in 2010 (and beyond). But the more I think about it, the more I'm pleased that the Jays have decided to go with the best talent they can get - I think it shows confidence in evaluation and in the ability to deal one of their 1st basemen/DH types if it comes to it. Overbay is clearly on his way out, Cooper is a big question mark, I like Dopirak well, but Ruiz can't be thought of as any time of long-term plan.

The Drunks have a run-down of Keith Law's comments on the deal. Law doubts Drabek can be a true ace because of the lack of a great third pitch, but likes him as a number two or, at worst, a number three. He thinks Wallace will be a great hitter, albeit as a first-baseman. And he projects d'Arnaud as a solid everyday catcher. Sounds like a plan to me. \
Jordan Bastian mentions what seems inevitable, that Overbay is on his way out, at the latest after 2010, that Cooper's stock has fallen, and that the Jays are considering moving Wallace to third base. I don't see the harm in keeping Wallace at third base in AAA if he's not going to make the major-league roster, though, unless they want to try Scott Campbell everyday at third in Las Vegas again.

What say you, banterers?

Update: 1:30 pm. Apparently, someone failed a physical, potentially putting the deal in jeopardy depending on who it is. We've heard it wasn't Doc or Cliff Lee (can you imagine Doc failing a physical? I think the treadmill used for the stress test would fail first) or Phillipe Aumont, so who?

Update^2: 2:45 pm. Blair says the entire physical-failing rumor was completely false, and other sources are confirming that the deal is final and there will be a Doc press conference this afternoon. That was a weird hour.

Won't You Please Let Me Go: Arbitration for Eligible Jays?

hugo — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 18:23:09 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

I'm not ready to let Jeremy Accardo walk away just yet (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Following up on Tom's post, I figured I'd take a break from my too-long hiatus to put up my views on the arbitration-eligible Jays.

I don't see the point in offering Shawn Camp arbitration. He pitched well for the team last year but there are cheaper alternatives that have more upside. And he's not even a FA after 2010, as far as I know, so there's not really a reason to keep him around for the draft pick (assuming you think he could get there) either.

Jeremy Accardo, I would offer a contract. Obviously Cito doesn't like him, but he has talent and would be a mainstay in a number of MLB bullpens. I would try to trade him. If they can't get anything useful back, I'd see if he can make the big-league bullpen out of spring, which I think he can. If he doesn't make the team, I'd release him then out of fairness to Jeremy or trade him for whatever is out there. Cito might be what we call testa dura, but he does change his mind about players sometimes and an improved attitude (and, more importantly, improved control) on Jeremy's part could give him a new lease on his Jays career.

Jose Bautista has to be non-tendered, in my view. Even if the Jays want to keep him, I think they can non-tender him and retain him for less money. $4 million is way too much for a utility player (which is what he better be) on a non-contending team. I don't see a lot of teams knocking down the door to snatch him up and if someone wants to give him a starting job, more power to him.

Raul Chavez, I'm not sure it matters one way or the other but he did a nice job last season. I'm not a fan of what I consider to be over-catching, but the pitchers didn't seem to mind.

Casey Janssen and Dustin McGowan, I think you absolutely have to offer deals. Neither is going to cost much more than the minimum and while there are huge long-term concerns for both (McGowan if he'll ever pitch again, Janssen if he'll ever be as good as he was), they do both have proven major league success and when you have the chance to get that for close to the minimum, you take it.

Shaun Marcum, Jason Frasor, and Brandon League to me are no-brainers, as is Brian Tallet. Tallet is right on the bubble of being a Type B free agent in 2010, is a useful lefty out of the pen, and shouldn't be too expensive.

Today's title from the incredible song "Age of Consent" by New Order, one of my favorite winter bands.
Stay warm.

Goodbye, Goodnight: Orioles 5, Jays 4

hugo — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 20:51:37 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero delivers against the Baltimore Orioles in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Jays' season came sputtering to a close this afternoon with a series sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. Today's game was an extra-inning affair the Jays lost in the bottom of the 11th.

On the Mound: Ricky Romero pitched pretty well for the Jays, though he gave up 4 runs. Three walks in 7 innings hurt him, but he struck out 8 and only gave up 5 hits (one of which was a 2-run home run by Nick Markakis). The long ball has been a thorn in Romero's side all season and will surely be something he works on next year.

At the Plate: Edwin Encarnacion hit another home run, which was encouraging. Edwin had a very good close to the season, batting .261/.343/.500 from September 1st on. If his wrist issues are behind him, he could have a good season at the plate next year. Jose Bautista and John McDonald also hit solo shots, and Travis Snider added an RBI double. Randy Ruiz had 2 doubles, a single, and a walk for a nice afternoon at the office. Vernon Wells had one of those days, going 0-5 and leaving a lot of men on base before Joe Inglett took his spot in the lineup to give him a bit of an early end to the season.

From the Pen: Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp combined to hold the line for three innings, giving the Jays the chance to tie it at four on J-Mac's home run in the 7th, but Brandon League had some serious problems in the 11th, giving up a leadoff single and then throwing two away in a row and allowing the run to score. His focus just wasn't there - understandable, I suppose, given the circumstances - he has had a ridiculously hard-luck season and likely just wanted it to be over. I'm going to go ahead and pencil him in for a big season next year.

The Jays finish the season at 75-87, pretty poor considering how hot they started. Their pythagorean record, however, was over .500 (83-79), showing that the Jays have been the victim of poor run distribution. Normally, I might say bad luck, but this is the third straight season that the Jays have underperformed their pythagorean record and particularly struggled to hit with runners in scoring position, so that really won't fly.

Waiting for the End of the World: Game 162 Game Thread, Jays at Orioles

hugo — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 15:03:06 -0000

Well, this is it, last game of the season. Ricky Romero pitches for the Jays and Jeremy Guthrie goes for Baltimore.

Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

10/04/09 1:35 PM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays	Baltimore Orioles
Jose Bautista - RF	Brian Roberts - 2B
Aaron Hill - 2B	Robert Andino - SS
Edwin Encarnacion - 3B	Matt Wieters - C
Vernon Wells - CF	Nick Markakis - RF
Lyle Overbay - 1B	Melvin Mora - 3B
Rod Barajas - C	Luke Scott - DH
Randy Ruiz - DH	Michael Aubrey - 1B
Travis Snider - LF	Lou Montanez - LF
John McDonald - SS	Jeff Fiorentino - CF