SB Nation User Blog: hythlodaeus

17, 16, 10, 14, 20, 0, 7 - or why the outlook at the midway point is great

hythlodaeus — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 11:56:12 -0000

The bye week is a time for reflection on what has happened so far in the season and how things look going forward.

Had anyone before the season offered me a 5-2 record after the bye, I would have taken it. I would have guessed, that the two losses had come in the Falcons-Ravens-Titans games, but the season never shakes out exactly as you expect.

Had anyone offered me an offensive development from shaky (Bills) over bad (Jets) and good halves (Falcons, Ravens, Broncos) to dominant (Titans and Bucs) I would have taken that too. For all the talk of 2007 and the return of Brady, some rust was to be expected. It never became a huge concern because a) Brady has continually improved his movement, accuracy and timing with the receivers and b) Belichick and the team still managed to win some games early on.

The main reason for hope, however, is the development of the defense. Last year, odd scheduling and bad luck kept the Patriots out of the playoffs, but even after the loss of Brady, the offense continued to be the strength of the team. Sure, it took some games to regroup, but at the end of the season, the offense was humming as usual, whereas the defense was getting old and slow, unable to make key stops at third down.

The numbers in the headline are points given up by the defense this year – I have taken out the pick-six against the Bills and the fumble-recovery against the Ravens – and it shows a pretty good defense, that’s only getting better. It hasn’t looked pretty all the way, but the results speak for themselves. Right now, the Patriots are sixth in yards per game and third in points per game. Considering the number of new players / starters on defense and key injuries to Mayo and Sanders, that is pretty remarkable.

Some will say the two last games against two hapless teams don’t really count. If the Patriots had won 24-13 and 31-17, I would agree, but they DESTROYED two teams, who are also talented, professional, and playing to keep their jobs. Talented, you say. The Bucs? Yes. All teams in the NFL has raw talent and making sure that doesn’t pop up, even a little, two weeks in a row, is also a sign of a great team coming into its own as the build-up for the playoffs begin. Remember, the Titans almost beat the Steelers and hung 31 on Houston, 17 on the Jets and 17 on the Jaguars. They can move the ball – but not on us. The Bucs scored 21 against Dallas and Carolina, 14 against Philadelphia and 20 against Buffalo.

The pass rush and coverage is improved from last year, and the secondary has brought more physicality and more big-play potential. Now, none of this guarantees success against top passing teams. The Broncos and the Ravens have been pretty good this year, but they just don’t compare to how the Saints and the Colts move the ball through the air. Maybe they will torch us, but even if they do, the outlook is good, because we play a lot of young guys who can improve for a rematch later.

MaPatsFan has already looked at the schedule ahead, and it looks good. There are two really good teams coming up, but I’d say we split with Colts and Saints and pick up another defeat or two along the way to go 12-4 or 11-5 and enter the playoffs with a great team on the rise. It is good to be a Patriots fan.

Kris Jenkins out for year

hythlodaeus — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:35:01 -0000

Kris Jenkins out for year

According to Adam Schefter per Tim Graham NT Kris Jenkins is done for the year with a torn ACL. It is always sad to see a player go down with a serious injury, but it is obviously very "good" news for the Patriots (and Dolphins).

Before the season I thought the Jets had build a decent starting lineup but lacked depth, partly because they traded away so much for the Sanchize and Shonn Greene. Now the price has to be paid.

Gloom and doom?

hythlodaeus — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 09:51:50 -0000

I just checked out the postgame thread, and I was a bit surprised by the mood of the whole thing. Terrible defense, lack of effort, needs to be whipped into shape etc. Had we watched the same game? To me the result was disappointing, but it’s not like the sky is falling or anything. We are still 3-2 with two soft opponents coming up and signs of progress here and there.

The team played really well in the first half, IMO. The offense moved the ball effectively and put 17 points on the board against a really good defense. Much like in the Ravens game they couldn’t keep it up for the whole game, but Brady being able to string together a good half is still waaay better than what he did in week 1 and 2. We keep saying it to each other and visiting fans: There is still some rust to be knocked off. It is just hard to watch the rust-knocking in action.

Two things do worry me about the offense: The loss of Matt Light and the inability to throw the deep ball. Light is not one of the best LT in the league and Vollmer looks like a real talent, so we should be good in the long run. The Titans, however, are coming to town on Sunday, not in the long run, and I would just feel better, if Brady had a guy he knows well protecting his blindside as he continues to battle the remaining physical and mental issues.

What is truly lacking from Brady’s game is the deep ball. Moss was wide open and Brady totally overthrew him, and I can’t really remember Brady connecting deep this year. In a way, the offense is a lot like the Cassell-led offense of last year: Moving the ball effectively, but sometime the lack of ability to go deep will be exploited. Will Brady get this part of his game back? I’m not sure. We have seen good drives and even good halves mixed with bad ones, but deep it’s pretty much all been bad.

It is easy to blame the defense for the loss, and let’s be real: It is not a top-five unit. But who expected them to be? IMO they are still better than they have been the past few years, and since the contributors are now young players it is reasonable to expect them to get better instead of declining further. And they didn’t play bad today! They only gave up 17 points in regulation, they helped build an early lead, and they sure didn’t get any help from the offense in the second half. I honestly don’t know how they did this, because there were a lot of missed tackles, third-down conversions, playing off receivers etc. – but the bottom line is still, that they haven’t given up more than 20 points in any game this season.

A few thoughts on last night’s game

hythlodaeus — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 06:55:18 -0000

I guess most of us expected Brady to look a bit rusty, but it was tough to watch in action. And it sure didn’t help that Welker joined in the sloppiness in the first half. Still, I’m not too concerned because the offense really stepped it up in the end, and they moved the ball pretty well between the twenties all day.

Getting Banta-Cain back looks like a pretty good idea now.

So does not shipping Watson out of town.

The offensive line does worry me, especially the left side. Brady added to the problems in the first half, where he lacked his usual pocket presence, but if the Bills can bring this much pressure, we are going to get trouble with some of the really good defenses down the road.

I loved the energy on defense. For years the Patriots were mostly a smart defense, a complex scheme worked by gritty veterans who just did their jobs and made their tackles. Last night there were swings and misses, but the added speed and athleticism was evident. Meriweather just flew all over the place, and the corners actually forced some dropped passes with hard, well-timed hits.

The Bills were a lot better than advertised, and we got lucky in the end, but

1-0 is 1-0 is 1-0.

Study shows (again) that Brady is one of the best ever

hythlodaeus — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:25:27 -0000

Study shows (again) that Brady is one of the best ever

We often hear, that a quarterback is asked to "carry his team" in an effort to make up for an inefficient running game or a porous defense. Here Cold Hard Football Facts actually try to measure what this means - and find out who is good at.

Brady is great; you-know-who from countless commercials not so much. Check it out!

Dolphins should be embarressed by new fighting song

hythlodaeus — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 08:15:33 -0000

Dolphins should be embarressed by new fighting song

You should absolutely check out the video at Shutdown Corner. It's brutal!

Analyzing the Patriots’ draft history, part II

hythlodaeus — Thu, 28 May 2009 18:51:27 -0000

In the first part we discussed how long draft picks of the last 13 years stayed with the Patriots. We will now focus on the development of the players, and doing this I will use two categories: Games on the active roster and games started. This reflects that most players make their first contributions on special teams and in specific sub packages. Some never make it past this, others develop into regular starters. Of course, this is a bit unfair, since the contribution of certain of players can never be measured by how many games they start. (The best example I can think of is Kevin Faulk. He has only started 35 games over the years, but that is to be expected from a pass-catching third-down back. He is waaay more valuable than the games started indicate.)

As we all know few rookies start from day one, so we will first analyze the impact of a typical draft over time.

via rawimages.myphotoalbum.com

This is how a Patriots draft on average contributes over time. Generally numbers after year 6 are problematic due to a small sample size - and the late rise is the result of Tedy Bruschis games being divided by a smaller number each year.

Some things stand out. First rookies are expected to contribute from the get-go. The number of active games tops in year two, but it is almost as high in year one, where four rookies are active each week. After year two the number declines and it drops off dramatically after year three. As discussed earlier, this is the time when a lot of mid-round picks are let go. Second, the number of games started rises until year three, where the average draft yields what amounts to two full-time starters. Looking at improvements from last year is not just about this year’s draft, it is about the development of players drafted in 2007 and 2008. Third, the gap between games active and games started dwindles over time. Every team needs role players and special-teams gunners, but these spots are mostly reserved for young prospects. If they want to stick around they have to develop into starters by year four, or they will be replaced by the next batch of hopeful youngsters.

So far, I have focused on how players contribute in each year after they were drafted. Now I will turn to the quality of individual drafts. When did the Patriots nail it – and when did they miss

via rawimages.myphotoalbum.com

Most of these drafts are still “active” – only the 1997 and 1998 drafts, which were not that good anyway, have dried up entirely - so the numbers will go up. Interestingly, 1996 was an extremely good draft, even though much of the contribution came before the Super Bowl years. However, the rest of the drafts of the 1990’s didn’t yield much, paving the way for the Belichick regime. He has presided over two truly great drafts: 2003 (Ty Warren, Dan Koppen, Eugene Wilson, Asanthe Samuel) and 2005 (Logan Mankins, Nick Kaszur, Ellis Hobbs, James Sanders). Less impressive is 2004 (Vince Wilfork and Benjamin Watson) and 2006. It was not all bad, though. Gostkowski has done well and Maroney could still develop. David Thomas, however, is probably on his way out with Alex Smith and Chris Baker coming in.

The jury is still out on the 2007 and 2008 drafts, but what can we expect next year? Let’s try to compare them with the early years of other drafts.

via rawimages.myphotoalbum.com

Well, the outlook for the 2007 draft is not good. In fact, there really is no other draft bad enough to make a reasonable comparison, though it should of course be remembered, that the Patriots only drafted Brandon Meriweather in the early rounds, and he is coming along nicely. 2008 is better. The numbers suggest a development along the lines of the 2000 through 2002 drafts. That is, not great, but not bad either. Jerod Mayo established himself last year – much like Seymour in 2001 – and we should expect the rest of the group to step up as well. Perhaps the Crable / Wheatley / Wilhite group will yield another starter when the inevitable injuries start to kick in?

In the last part I will focus more specifically at the development of players, based on the round they were drafted in. As everybody is probably aware of, we drafted FOUR players in the second round. According to pretty much everyone the second round is where you findd value at a discount. But has it been true?

"Linebacker Paris Lenon signed with the Patriots, adding depth to a linebacker corps that needed...

hythlodaeus — Wed, 27 May 2009 17:30:11 -0000

"Linebacker Paris Lenon signed with the Patriots, adding depth to a linebacker corps that needed it. Many question this move based on Lenon's up and down career in Detroit, but Lenon is going to NE for depth reasons, not to be a starter. In the role of a backup, I think he will do just fine. "

Reaction from Sean Yulle of Pride of Detroit to the Paris Lenon signing.

http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2009/5/27/890224/wednesday-notes-lions-to-partner

Analyzing the Patriots’ draft history, part I

hythlodaeus — Tue, 05 May 2009 14:30:57 -0000

12 new players have joined the Patriots via this year’s NFL draft, but what can we expect from them, both this year and beyond? We all know that some will succeed and some will fail, but we don’t know who will do what. I like Butler a lot, but he could be a bust. Late round picks rarely pan out, but George Bussey could turn out to be a mauler at guard, making us all comfortable with the eventual departure of Stephen Neal. So, how can we at least get an idea what to expect?

Marima is currently doing great breakdowns of the individual draft picks. My approach will be different. I will look back at the previous 13 Patriots drafts – 1996 to 2008 – to see how draft picks have historically been developed and contributed. 1996 has been chosen as the starting point to include all drafted players currently on the roster, Tedy Bruschi being the oldest of the group. It will be somewhat long, so it will be a three-part endeavour.

Draft picks – how long do they stay?

The Patriots drafted a total of 117 players 1996-2008. They were pretty evenly distributed by round: 13-15 in round one to three and 14-21 in round four to seven. More picks in the later are rounds are to be expected since they are often included in trades and awarded as compensatory picks.

To contribute a draft pick has to be on the 53-man roster, so that is the starting point for the analysis. Years on the practice squad or injured reserve is not counted. (E.g. Bo Ruud has 0 years even though he was with the club last year.) The average is surprisingly low, 2,7 years:

Not surprisingly players picked early tend to stay longer on the team. They have more obvious talent – that’s why they were picked early in the first place – more money is invested in them, and it is harder on the club’s image to part with a high-profile bust. Still, even high round picks have an average below five years. Every year hundreds of hopefuls are put in the meat grinder of the NFL, and most of them are out of the league again in a couple of years.

Now, averages are tricky, especially with such a small sample size. Let’s take a closer look at how the careers of draft picks develop:

This graph shows how many drafted players COULD be on the team after 1-13 years and how many players actually are on the team. The numbers are declining to the right since we still don’t know how the recent drafts will look over that period of time. I do believe they throw some more light on the trends observed earlier.

First- and second round picks partly have a high average because they are given more time to establish themselves. All are on the club after two years. At this point injured players are cut and busts released (Chad Jackson). The next significant cut-off is after five years, e.g. when their rookie contracts expire. Some are deemed essential to keep (Ty Warren) others are allowed to test free agency (Daniel Graham). I don’t know this for certain, but I have a feeling this is where the Patriots differ from clubs relying heavily on the draft. Unless a player is really special, they are let go and replaced with another draft pick or a cheaper free agent. Overpaying for mediocre players is probably the worst thing you can do in the salary cap era.

Third- and fourth-round picks follow the same pattern, but it is speeded up. They get only one year to prove themselves and a lot of them are dropped after three years. Apparently that is the time allotted for developmental players to fulfil their promise. Late-round picks are even worse off. A third of them are cut without even making the active roster, so they better show up at camp. They are not just lottery tickets; they are lottery tickets with short expiration dates. However, IF a player is retained after five years, it really doesn’t matter where they were drafted.

Being on the roster doesn’t necessarily mean doing anything noteworthy. The next part will look at the impact of drafts over time and discuss the best – and worst – drafts of the period.

Reflections on the 2009 NFL draft

hythlodaeus — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:14:28 -0000

The draft is in the books, which means it’s time to evaluate what happened. Whether the players are any good is impossible to say until they see the field in the fall. I obviously expect all to be great or at least adequate in our system, but even the Patriots strike out once in a while, so this article will focus more on positions targeted, deals and such.

Money in the bank

Before the draft it was obvious that the Patriots had more dough than they could spend in a normal shopping spree. Some of it had to be spent on moving up in the first round or be pushed into next year, preferably with interest. I was a bit worried when we first traded down, thus getting more picks, and later actually used four second-rounders. Right behind us San Francisco turned their second rounder into Denver’s first-round pick next year. Had Hoodie lost his touch? Was the rest of the league conspiring against the Patriots to let them choke on their abundance of picks? Or did Belichick really think the roster was so barren, that he needed to exercise all those picks?

Luckily he quickly displayed his usual touch in the third round and acquired two second-round picks next year. Come next April, Carolina will again moan their lack of a first-rounder and we will again be thrilled with our flexibility and chances to add the players we want. This brings me to the next point:

The Pats got their targeted players

That’s right. I believe the Patriots got exactly who they wanted with at least their first three picks. Of course, they may have hoped a player like Andre Smith slided, and I can’t imagine they wouldn’t have loved to grab Curry, but given the starting position at #23 that was never realistic. So, moving back from the “who do we dream of” to the “who do we want” board, Belichick got the players he desired. Chung was there at #34 and the Patriots effectively moved up / down the board to the early second round for Brace and Butler. However, this implies that…

No OLB was worth the trouble

Everybody and their grandmothers believed the Patriots had no greater need than OLB and speculated whether English, Matthews, Sintim or somebody else was the answer. Apparently none of them was. This will leave me worried about the pass rush until I see it working on the field, but obviously you can’t draft to soothe the feelings of fans in April, since they will come for your head in November anyway, if it doesn’t work out. Still, if anybody has compromising pictures of Jason Taylor, now is the time to persuade him to join the Patriots as a situational pass rusher.

Prepared for FA 2010

As we discussed before the draft a number of players will be free agents next year. I think this played some role in the draft. Moving picks to next year will in itself provide some insurance, and especially the O-line picks seem destined to provide depth this year and be replacements at the guard and RT positions next year if necessary. On the D-line Brace adds both depth and insurance for Wilfork. I don’t think this means Wilfork will definitely be gone, but it is probably an attempt to keep the cost of resigning him down. IMO it should still be a high priority. He has become a top performer, he is relatively young, and we KNOW he is good. Brace MIGHT be good

Lots of picks

Even with next years picks a LOT of players (12) became Patriots during the weekend. It is obvious that not all of them will make the active roster. Nobody wants to throw away goods for nothing, so Belichick made a couple of moves to limit the problem.

First, he drafted a long snapper. Most years you don’t want to spend a draft pick at that position, but with Paxton gone this roster spot is somewhat open. We acquired Hodel from Arizona, but he could turn out to be just an insurance policy. Other teams have QB-competitions in camp, but only the Patriots will have a LS-competition! (As long as it doesn’t turn into a LS-controversy, I’m all for it…) Seriously, I believe it is good business to draft specialists, when you need one. When your fifth-round pick will likely be training camp fodder anyway, why not have a free choice at kicker, punter or long snapper?

Secondly the Patriots drafted Brandon Tate, WR in the third round. Tate is coming of a major knee surgery, which makes him a high risk / high reward player, but is also means he can possibly be stashed at the PUP-list this year and not count against the roster limit. Still the training camp competition will be fierce.

Trades galore

Finally, it is worth noting that the Patriots traded like crazy. Of the 12 players picked only two (Sebastian Vollmer, #58 and Darryll Richard, #234) were selected in an original Patriots draft slot. The rest were either picked in compensatory selections or in slots acquired through trades.

One trade stood out, because it moved Ellis Hobbs to the Eagles for a pair of fifth round picks. I’m a bit ambivalent about this move, because I always liked Hobbs and it seems risky moving the best player in a unit that didn’t exactly shine last year. That is probably the very reason, though, since the Patriots have added numerous free agents, still have two promising rookies from last year and have added two high-round draft choices in Butler and Chung to the defensive backfield. It was foreseeable that one of them would have to be cut before the season, so Belichick decided to strike when he could get something in return.

In the end

This looks like a productive draft for the Patriots. Not all needs were covered, and I don’t think the picks will be instant impact players. The 2009 season will be determined by the players who were already on the roster before April 25th, but that is not a bad thing. Usually teams start rookies because they have serious issues, not because they don’t think they could use a little seasoning. At least the Patriots got what they set their eyes on and handled the draft process great.