SBNation.com User Blog: iowasteel

The draft and HS outfielders

iowasteel — Sat, 11 May 2013 16:22:17 -0000

In a thread the other day, I was commenting that I would love to get Meadows in the year''s draft, and said that high school outfielders were more likely to become all stars. Someone, I think it was Maguro, called me on the statement, so I thought I would take a look. Looking at 2012 offensive WAR only, I categorized the top 10 outfielders by how they were originally acquired. It breaks down like this:

HS: Trout, Cutch, A Jones, A Jackson, Hamilton, Pagan

College: Braun, Willingham (17th round!),

Free agents: Choo, Cabrera

The second ten was similar, with 5 from high school, 2 from college, 1 from community college, and 1 free agent. So, my original point, perhaps badly stated is, I think, correct. If you want an all star outfielder, you should be looking at the elite high school players. Now, this does leave out some important counterpoints. First, high school players are more risky than college players. Second, I ignored defense which, while not as important for outfielders, is a consideration. Also, not all outfielders were drafted as such. Justin Upton was drafted as a shortstop. Finally, I have not considered the frequency with which such players are draftred. The statisticians out there might note that I answered a slightly different question than I posed. My original statement was that high school outfielders were more likely to become all-stars. What the list shows is that all stars are more likely to have been drafted as high schoolers, which is different, although related.

To be fair, I think Maguro's point was that you cannot be dogmatic when selecting players in the draft. There are no hard and fast rules. If Ryan Braun is there, you choose him, and it should not matter if he is in college. Still, it is my belief that at the top of round 1 you should be thinking impact. Which players are the most likely to give you 5+ WAR seasons? If the Bucs get either Meadows or Frazier, I would be thrilled. I understand the arguments behind a safe pick like Moran, but I think with two first round picks, the Bucs need to roll the dice with at least one.

HS: Trout, Cutch, A Jones, A Jackson, Hamilton, Pagan

College: Braun, Willingham (17th round!),

Free agents: Choo, Cabrera

Friday's NY Times Crossword Puzzle

iowasteel — Sun, 03 Mar 2013 15:45:37 -0000

4 down, 7 letters: "Six time Lombardi Trophy winner"

Are the Pirates the worst team in the league?

iowasteel — Sat, 22 Sep 2012 17:02:08 -0000

Since August 1, the Pirates are 17 games below .500. If the season had started on that date, they would be 1/2 game in front of the Astros, and tied with the Cubs. Those two teams chose to blow up their rosters prior to the trade deadline and have been fielding AAA teams for the most part since then. Neither of those teams expects to be competitive next year. Is it possible that the current talent level is such that the Bucs should have the same expectations?

Of course, the whole season counts, and 77-78 wins represents progress of a sort. (Hell, I still have hope that the losing streak can be broken.) But, I am having a harder time seeing better times ahead. Most of the blame for the current woes can be attributed to the implosion of the pitching staff. Looking to next year, other than Burnett and Rodriguez, who else can we count on to pitch 180 innings next year with a league average ERA or better? Who in the bullpen will be better than they were this year. On the hitting side, who can we expect to be better next year? I am looking for some reason to be positive about next year, and right now it is hard to see.

Everyone relax and enjoy a possibly historic season

iowasteel — Sat, 04 Aug 2012 21:54:05 -0000

I suspect all Pirate fans are cursing Dame Fortune as all their competitors for playoff spots continue to win, and the Bucs slip further back in the Central. It might be a good time to consider where the team has been and how far it has come. Two years ago, the Pirates won 57 games. Last year, they won 72. This year, they are currently 15 games over .500, and are on a pace to win 88-89 games. Even if they should win only 87, it would represent the second consecutive 15 game improvement. To see what an accomplishment that is, I went back and looked for any team that had that kind of improvement over a two year period (strike years excluded). There are two; the 1912-1914 Braves who went from 52 wins to 94 wins, and the 1925-1927 Yankees, who went from 69 wins to 110 wins. Looking at how they did it, I list below the primary players and their WAR in parentheses. For catchers, I list only the primary player, but add in the WAR for the top 2, since, even then, most teams used two catchers. I also list only 5 or 6 pitchers, as in this era, this was the vast majority of innings pitched.

1912 Braves

C Kling (0.8), 1B Houser (0.8), 2B Sweeney (5.1), SS O'Rourke (-2.8), 3B McDonald (1.0), OF Titus (2.2), OF Campbell (-1.6), OF Jackson (-0.2), P Tyler (1.4), P Hess (2.1), P Perdue (2.5), P Dickson (-0.1), P Brown (0.1), P Donnelly (-0.8)

1914 Braves

C Gowdy (2.1), 1B Schmidt (1.5), 2B Evers (4.8), SS Maranville (4.8), 3B Deal 9-0.1), Of Gilbert (0.5), Mann (1.3), Connolly (3.8), P Rudolph (6.1), P James (7.7), P Tyler (1.4), P Hess (0.2), P(Crutcher (0.0)

A couple of notes on this transformation. First, the Braves were actually a little unlucky in 1912. Their Pythagorean record was about 10 wins better than their actual record. You can see by the turnover that they essentially remade the entire team over the 2 year period. Their only good player was Sweeney, and he was traded for Evers before the 1914 season. Given that Evers was at the end of his career and Sweeny should have been entering his prime, that was pretty gutsy. Maranville and Gowdy were yougsters who were on the 1912 team and were being given a shot. Rudolph and (Bill!) James were in the minors in 1912 and could be thought of as free talent. Both threw more than 330 innings, and this represents almost haf the total for the team. Shockingly, James hurt his arm and was never the same. Rudolph's arm was apparently made of rubber, and he threw over 300 innings the next several years.

1925 Yankees

C Bengough (-0.2), 1B Gehrig(2.9), 2B Ward (-0.6), SS Wanninger (-2.0), 3B Dugan (0.7), OF Meusel (3.2), OF Combs (3.5), Of Ruth (3.2), P Pennock (6.3), P Hoyt (4.0), P Shocker (5.3), P Jones (1.4), P Shawkey (1.7)

1927 Yankees

C Collins (2.4), 1B Gehrig (11.5), 2B Lazzeri (5.9), SS Koenig (2.0), 3B Dugan (0.3), OF Meusel (3.8), Combs (6.7), OF Ruth (12.1), P Pennock (2.8), P Hoyt (5.4), P Shocker (2.4), P Ruether (1.2), P Pipgras (1.1), P Moore (5.3)

The 1925 Yankees were not a bad team, but they had specific weaknesses. Ruth as suffering from some sort of illness (stomach, STD, or pay-me-more-money-itis, depending on who you believe). The five pitchers listed threw most of the innings, which was fortunate since the other pitchers were awful (-5 WAR combined). Gehrig was just breaking in. By 1927, he was a superstar, Ruth had returned to form, and the Yankee brass had replaced the weak spots. with better players. The pitching wasn't great, but it didn't have to be. This team outscored the opposition by a mind numbing 276 runs. Gehrig and Ruth both hit more home runs than this staff gave up combined (45). The one interesting pitcher is Wilcy Moore. He appeared in 50 games, starting 12, and threw 213 innings. His ERA was the best in the league. Even throwing away the starts, think how valuable a pitcher would could make 40 appearances and throw 150 innings with a league leading ERA would be. Shockingly, he hurt his arm, and was mediocre for most of the rest of his career.

How about our Pirates? I used the starting lineup and adjusted to 150 games for those who played only a partial season. I used Meek as the reliever, as he was probably the one who pitched the most high leverage innings. Remember this is who management though were our best players

C Doumit (-0.6), 1B Clement (-1.9), 2B Iwamura (-4.7), SS Cedeno (0.3), 3B LaRoche (-2.1), OF Jones (-0.5), OF McCutchen (3.6), OF Milledge (0.4), P Maholm (0,1), P Duke (-1.3), P Karstens (0.6), P Ohlendorf (1.6), P Morton (-2.4), Meek (2.3)

Yeesh. I had forgotten just how bad Iwamura was. Our bullpen wasn't terrible, but overall the pitchers were essentially replacement level. The hitters weren't even that. We are more like the 1912 Braves in that ther was one good player. Fortunately, unlike them, we haven't traded him. Rather he has blossomed into a superstar, much like Gehrig. Of course, these players did not play the entire season; they were cast off as viable replacements could be had. Iwamura and Clement were gone before midseason. Laroche was out before the end. All have been replaced by better players. For the 2012 Pirates, prorated for a full season we have:

C Barajas (1.5), 1B Jones (2.0), 2B Walker (4.2), SS Barmes (-0.5), 3B Alvarez (3.9), OF Presley (-0.5), OF McCutchen (9.1), OF Tabata (-0.2), P McDonald (2.5), P Burnett (2.9), P Correia (0.0), P Bedard (-0.6), P Karstens (0.9), P Hanrahan (1.2).

Overall, not too bad. Some of the lesser performers are already gone. Somehow, we have found someone worse than Ronny Cedeno at shortstop. The starting pitching is not great, but in this era, relief pitchers have become more valuable. In fact, Huntington has assembled a strong relief corps that will likely provide more than 7 wins over the course of a season.

So, hats off to NH for a thorough rebuilding. The Pirates might not make the playoffs, but they are much imporved. I would be happy with anything more than 81 wins, but if they get to 87, I will toast the team and thank them for a historic ride. For all you insane optimists out there, note that both the 1914 Braves and the 1927 Yankees swept the World Series in 4 straight.

1912 Braves

1914 Braves

1925 Yankees

1927 Yankees

Home run fever

iowasteel — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 18:04:58 -0000

I believe that the Pirates may be on their way to setting a single season record for home runs. They currently have 110 through 98 games, and the pace they are on would give them just a little north of 180 on the season. The record is 171. It looks as if they will have three players on the team who will hit at least 20, McCutchen, Alvarez and Jones. This is actually quite impressive, as PNC is a very difficult place to hit home runs, with home runs surpressed by 20% typically (a bit more this year). I think I can remember the last time the Bucs had 3 twenty home run hitters; the Bonds, Bonilla, Van Slyke era Pirates. What I cannot remember is the last time they led the National League in home runs. Currently, the National League Leader is Milwaukee, with 114, so it is possible that Pirates could be the league leader at the end. Does anyone out there remember when was the last time that happened?

Ks and BBs

iowasteel — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 16:03:13 -0000

It is no secret that the Pirates have a woeful offense, and that with even average offensive performance, they would likely contend late into the season. One of the dimensions where their performance leaves a lot to be desired is plate discipline. I was looking at the K/BB ratios for National League players with at least 100 AB, and found the following Pirates:

Barmes 20.5 ratio -ranked 1st

Jones 12 ratio - ranked 2nd

Presley 8.25 ratio - ranked 4th

So, we have three of the worst four players in this area (big shout of thanks to Tyler Colvin for preventing the sweep). My question is why would this be the case? My belief is that Huntington has a pretty good feel for modern analysis in baseball, and would know the value of OBP. Is this a developmental problem in the minor leagues? Do Pirate players show larger declines in this statistic when they get to the majors? Does our hitting coach preach "aggression" at the plate? On the horizon, Marte is the best prospect at AAA and he boasts a ratio of 4. Josh Bell had a ratio of 10.5, although the sample size is quite small. Only Grossman and Hansen have respectable ratios among the top prospects, and Hansen strikes out a lot as well. Unless this problem gets solved, the Bucs are always going to struggle offensively. Where do we find a solution?

Barmes 20.5 ratio -ranked 1st

Jones 12 ratio - ranked 2nd

Presley 8.25 ratio - ranked 4th

empirical steeler draft pick

iowasteel — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 12:36:43 -0000

Steelers was C. Upshaw, who was also chosen twice. >