The Wall Street Journal published the results of a study yesterday (4/2), showing the top 20 most valuable college basketball programs, as computed by a IUPUC finance prof. The studay shows what college basketball programs would be worth in the market if they operated for profit like NBA teams (or like Kentucky). UCLA shows up at number 17.

Looking through the top 20, there are 4 schools which have at least one losing season in the last 4 years-

Indiana, which has been reduced to a has-been from a national power;

Virginia and Wake Forest, which nibble around the edges and can't compete in the ACC against UNC and Duke;

and UCLA.

The Pac-12 only has one other program in the top 20- Arizona at #5. And the Pac-12 has the 2nd lowest average valuation of the majors, only ahead of the SEC. And yet the Bruins can't win a single conference title in that 4 year span.

I really want the Bruins to get back to the glory days, and fast. But I fear that without regime change at Morgan Center, we are looking like the next Indiana.

As a side note, this shows again how DG is frittering away cash, while Block looks the other way. These results are from a finance prof, and are based on revenue, not wins and losses. The top 4 in the study are Louisville, Kansas, Indiana (despite their record, the fans still show) and Ohio State. Meanwhile, Ben Howland's program results in empty seats, and money left on the table.

Bumped with slight edits. If UCLA had a Chancellor who actually cared about sports and the Bruin athletic tradition, Guerrero would have been canned long before Love. - BN Eds.

While we continue to sink in the quicksand that is Chancellor Block's leadership, other schools are moving forward. Arizona State pulled the plug on Lisa Love, who had been athletic director for 7 years. Here is a telling quote from the new AD, Steve Patterson (presumably no relation to the UCLA star who coached ASU and passed away in 2004):

"It's time for our men's basketball and football programs to compete for championships and perform at the same level as our successful spring sports."

Patterson is a graduate of University of Texas and also went to Law school at Texas. The guy "gets" football:

At the news conference, Patterson likened the situation at Arizona State to the one at the University of Texas when he was a student there.

"We had a football program that had fallen on hard times after a great run - many, many years of tremendous success," Patterson said, "and a guy named DeLoss Dodds came to town and he wasn't so popular when he first got there and he was there when I was a student and he's still there today. And he's built one of the great athletic departments in America, one of the great sports enterprises in America. I think we've got all the resources to do that here and I don't see why we can't do it."

If you want some interesting reading, head over to Brad Denny's post in House of Sparky- you can basically insert "Dan Guerrero" everywhere you see "Lisa Love" and "UCLA" everywhere you see "ASU." The parallels are very interesting, with one huge difference. ASU president Michael Crow actually cared enough to step in.

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Dan Guerrero said that he did an end of season evaluation of the UCLA basketball program. This is presumably how it went when he got together with Ben Howland-

DG- "Let's go over the goals we set at the beginning of the season, and see how we did on each of those."

BH- "No problem."

DG- "First, did we get UCLA back in the national discussion, with a major article in Sports Illustrated?"

BH- "Sure did."

DG- "Excellent. Second, did we win a game in a high profile nationally televised pre-conference season tournament?"

BH- "Yes again. We took it to Chaminade in the Maui Invitational."

DG- "Great. Finally, we aren't going to lose any games in the NCAA tourney- right?"

BH- "Absolutely."

DG- "Ben- you are one of a kind."

BH- "Back at you. There is no other athletic director in the country who has done what you have, and has your longevity."

DG then went to Chancellor Block to get his evaluation. After the break...

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It has been frustrating trying to get a read on Chancellor Block's schedule, so that we can express (respectfully) our extreme disappointment at his indifference to Dan Guerrero's performance.

We now have a sighting. UCLA Alumni Day is Saturday, May 5. We are invited, per the schedule, to "enjoy a timely and informative talk by Chancellor Gene Block." The time for him to "talk" is set for 10:30 AM.

I live in Northern California, so won't be attending. I will instead be imbibing mass quantities of tequila, which seems like a fairly rational response to the performance of our revenue sports teams in recent years.

For those in the area, this could be a good opportunity to make our opinions known. There is no indication in the schedule whether Chancellor Block will entertain questions. But we can still express our opinions- t shirts saying "Dump Dan", etc.

As has been pointed out on BN previously, there is a schedule conflict between football at the Rose Bowl and Alumni Day on campus. But for those who opt for campus, Gene Block will be in public view.

I thought I would try a different tack, and try to push why getting rid of Guerrero would be in his best interest

Dear Chancellor Block,

I am contacting you with respect to a topic that I imagine you wish would go away- namely the current state of affairs in the Athletic Department.

Presumably, when you were hired, the main criterion was not athletic success, or lack of embarrassing stories related to athletics. Presumably also, you did not accept the position hoping to achieve athletic success or avoid embarrassing stories as your primary goals.

I imagine the opposite might indeed be the case- that in the ideal world, you hoped that you could focus on academic topics and how to strengthen the university’s financial well-being.

That would indeed be a fantastic scenario. However, it is not the real world as it currently exists. And whether or not you place importance on athletics, other people do, including the media.

The result is that you get sucked in, whether you like it or not, when a story like the Sports Illustrated article is published to wide circulation. You have to drop other priorities, take time from your otherwise full schedule, and react to something related to athletics.

You also undoubtedly received many communications during the travails of our football program under the Karl Dorrell and Rick Neuheisel periods.

There is a common thread which links the football program and the basketball program- Dan Guerrero.

Under Dan Guerrero’s “leadership”, the football program has reached new depths of national irrelevance, and the basketball program is approaching the same territory. Please understand, this is not about wins and losses. Wins would be nice, but that is not a reason for you to become involved in what happens in the Athletic Department, unless you do so by personal choice.

This is about lost revenues, and tarnished reputation. The athletic department is presumably looking sound on a financial basis, based on revenues and expenditures. But, assuming this is the case, the numbers don’t reflect the opportunity cost of revenues which were lost to empty seats. The Rose Bowl attendance figures, at least as reflected on TV, are at or near the bottom in terms of attendance as a % of capacity. And the basketball program, which used to play to capacity crowds, now plays in a nearly empty Sports Arena. The basketball program attendance was also sinking before the team moved off campus for the renovation process, so the decrease can not be blamed on the renovation.

Beyond the direct impact of the seats unsold for home games, there are ancillary losses, such as merchandise sales, make-whole payments to Bowl organizers when Bruin fans don’t attend meaningless games, and decreased donations to annual funds from disenchanted alums.

There is a simple solution to all this, which would allow you to get back to the priorities which you would rather have. Relieve Dan Guerrero of his duties, and appoint a search committee to find a competent replacement. Management by exception is still management. These problems will continue to pop up, and will command your attention, whether you like it or not, as long as Dan Guerrero’s failures are allowed to continue.

Please help yourself and the UCLA community. Let Dan Guerrero go.

Thank you for your attention to this matter,

[island bruin]

UCLA '71

Bumped. More appalling numbers concerning Dan Guerrero's dumpster fire hoops program. - BN Eds.

We have many stats which demonstrate the futility of UCLA basketball since Kevin Love's last game. Things like number of wins against top 25 teams on the road, conference records, etc. These matter to true fans like the contributors to BN. Unfortunately, Chancellor Block has shown no evidence of being a true fan. I would submit that Dan Guerrero is also not a true fan- otherwise, he would not make lame excuses for the on and off court performance of the train wreck which has become our basketball program.

But there is one stat which should interest Chancellor Block, because it directly impacts how much money he is leaving on the table because he tolerates the Dan and Ben show, as we sink further into the nether regions.

I went through every box score since Kevin Love's last game, and looked at the attendance figure, to see how many times the Bruins played in front of at least 10,000 fans. For anybody who thinks this is a high bar, in the 2011 season, according to ncaa.org, there were 44 schools which an average home attendance in excess of 10,000.

Here is what the box scores show on number of games with attendance over 10,000:

Year	Home	Away	Neutral	% of Season (no. of games)
2008-09	10	6	2	58 % (31)
2009-10	3	3	1	23% (30)
2010-11	2	4	1	23% (31)
2011-12	0	1	0	4% (28)

As you can see, the number of home games with attendance over 10,000 has gone down every season. And we have also become a worse draw on the road, as the Dan and Ben show drags the program into almost literal oblivion.

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Clearly as a private university, Stanford has a different fundraising profile than UCLA.

I received my master's from Stanford. I give them money. I used to give UCLA more, back when we did not need to register our discontent with Morgan Center.

As a donor to Stanford, I receive a quarterly periodical, highlighting major donations. I can't say that I have seen something like this in the past from UCLA, although there may have been something. But Stanford clearly does a much better job of trying to connect alums with what is going on at their alma mater.

The Stanford document highlights major gifts across the board- undergraduate education, graduate education, the arts, and athletics. They are all treated equally.

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Did you notice the pop up ad towards the end of the game for BRO?

I imagine the powers that be at the Pac-12 exercise control over who advertises, and the content of ads, on Pac-12 basketball games.

But it sure would be nice to have an ad pop up towards the end of our next TV game saying "Save UCLA Athletics. Dan Guerrero must go."

I wonder how much a 15 second pop up ad costs, and whether we could even get in the front door. Anybody know if this could be done?

Please excuse apologies in advance if this is already up. Couldn't find it in search.

UCLA is ranked 14 in Baseball America Preseason Top 25.

Baseball schedule includes games against following ranked teams-

at Georgia (11) 3/9-3/11

home vs. Arizona St (17) 3/16-3/18

home vs. Fullerton (25) 4/10

at Arizona (5) 4/13-4/15

at Oregon St (23) 4/20-4/22

home vs. Stanford (2) 4/27-4/29

at Fullerton 5/15

So 17 regular season games against teams in Baseball America top 25

Again, apologides if redundant

Fire Dan Guerrero !!!!

We could certainly find somebody at $139K less per year, who would be competent.

In the meantime, with the fixation on facilities, as a cost saving measure, there is another piece of real estate which is not being used for academic or research purposes- Dan Guerrero's office.

Let's move him out of his office, and sublet the space. The university gets money (which Block wants above all else, apparently) and we don't lose anything in terms of academics or research.

Dan Guerrero clearly needs space to work. Otherwise, how could he continue to strap it on every morning for our benefit? Let's get him a chair and desk, and park it on Bruin Walk.

That way he could do his job, and he could hear first hand from some of the people he is affecting most- the students who he wanted to park in the wrong seats at the new Pauley.

To be fair to Dan, he should get bathroom breaks and lunch breaks. So let's have Chancellor Block man his station on Bruin Walk in his absence. This could be the first time he feels so connected to his dreaded student body. It would do him some good.

-Bumped. BN Eds.

In football, my sense is that UCLA has not been relevant on the national scene since the fumble in the Miami game. So when it was time to replace Bob Toledo, the bar for a suitable hire was pretty low. Simply find somebody who could make us relevant again- didn't have to be in the BCS title game every year, just make us part of the BCS equation on a regular basis. And yet DG went under the bar with Karl Dorrell, a totally untested member of the family.

When it was time to replace Karl Dorrell, the bar for a suitable hire was again low. Not only were we not part of the BCS equation, we weren't even part of the Pac-10 equation. Simply find us somebody who could make us relevant again in the Pac-10, and then move us back to the BCS discussion. And DG again went under the bar by hiring Rick Neuheisel, another member of the family, and tying him down with DG's hand picked coordinators.

When it was time to replace Rick Neuheisel, the bar for a suitable hire was again low. We were still not part of the BCS equation, we weren't part of the Pac-10 equation, and we were getting blown out by $C. Simply find us somebody who could make us competitive in every game, relevant in the Pac-10, and get us back at some point to the BCS discussion. And DG again went under the bar by hiring Jim Mora, who has no meaningful experience at the college level, and was run out of town after 1 year in his most recent NFL gig.

If Jim Mora does turn the program around, it will not be because DG made a competent search. It will because DG was lucky. At the salary DG is taking down (highest in the Pac-12), we should be getting excellence competence, not luck.

In basketball, the expectations are completely different, and rightfully so. The last time our team was revelant on the national stage was Kevin Love's season. That is not ancient history. And yet since that time we have morphed into a program where the discussion has become about whether winning the Pac-12 regular season would get us into the dance, or whether we would need to win the tourney and get the automatic slot. After last night (losing to the next to worst team in the conference, coupled with Cal winning in Seattle), we can forget about winning the Pac-12 regular season. So now we are down to talking about our chances of winning the conference tourney, and thereby sneaking into the dance. Let me spell out after the jump why we need to get rid of Chianti NOW before he is position to make another dumb decision with regards to hiring of a new hoops coach.

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-Bumped. - BN Eds.

In a prior fanpost, I suggested that we should consider having people bring signs to UCLA games where we could be on camera "Save UCLA Athletics, Fire Dan Guerrero" or something along those lines. The hope was to embarass Chancellor Block to come out of his shell and address the situation. This led to a broader discussion of how best to interact with Chancellor Block, and hopefully generate some commentary from him. The commentary would either confirm that he doesn't care (my suspicion) or that he does care (and is waiting for the right time to relieve us from our misery).

Either way, we do need to find out where he stands. In this connection, we were hoping to find out when he would be meeting with alums and/or students. We could then plan to attend with some directed questions. I hit a brick wall on the Chancellor's Office website, on the UCLA Alumni Association website, and on the UCLA Fund website. I assume his future schedule is not publicized widely for a reason, which does not necessarily have anything to do with us.

So we need to find out through other channels when he will be in a public setting with alums and/or students. Anybody with info- please share. This would be very helpful. The intent would be to be respectful of the occasion, but to draw him out in an appropriate fashion. Thanks.

Bumped. More data points to point out the leadership fail of Mr. Chianti - "What's wrong with Spaulding" - Dan. - BN Eds.

Today's Wall Street Journal shows the results of a study they conducted to determine the percentage of total campus revenue generated by football. They looked at 45 schools, all public.

The point of the article was that LSU and Alabama are not only playing for the BCS championship, but they also lead the country in percentage of revenue generated by football. 14% of LSU's revenue came from football, 11% of Alabama's revenue came from football. Next highest at 9% were Arkansas and Tennessee. The list continues with Oregon showing up as the highest Pac-12 team at 4%.

The list continues through Oregon State, Colorado,and Arizona State, down to Washington State, Cal and Washington at 1%, and ...(drumroll) less than 1%- Utah, Illinois and UCLA (!!!). Guess we had more in common with our toilet bowl opponents on December 31 than we suspected.

I suppose the argument could be made that the % of revenue from football could be higher at other schools because their overall revenue is lower. But I bet nobody could find any study which shows that UCLA would lose money from other sources if football brought in more. Thanks to DG's mismanagement, and Block's indifference, we are leaving money on the table.

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We need to make Block squirm, with his continued inattention to athletics. Stopping donations and ticket purchases certainly helps.

But what about the following as an additional step?

There must be fans who are still going to the games, despite their disgust with DG. What if we print up signs for fans entering the game, who are in the TV line of sight when they do crowd shots?

The signs could say

Save UCLA Athletics

Fire Dan Guerrero

If DG is still AD next fall (heaven help us, but with Block, who knows), then I would pitch in for a banner to be flown over Memorial Stadium with this same message. If Yudon, UC President and Block's boss, saw the banner, he could be inclined to give Block a call.

Well, that was truly pathetic. The football, men's basketball, and women's basketball teams lost by a combined 49 points. And I am guessing that Block was nowhere to be found lending support to any of the teams, unlike Chancellor Young back in the day.

My experience in business has been that workers act very rationally in accordance with their self-interest, based on however the compensation system is set up. Real world example- there was a division which paid bonuses based on profit before advertising expense. So the division saturated the airwaves, because it did not hurt their performance, and lined up for their bonuses as the parent lost money.

Assuming that Block is rational, it would appear that he has no metric in his contract which measures decrease in donations, lost ticket revenues, or any other measure which we might be able to directly impact. We need a lever to force change. I sent a letter to the Regents, but that was basically a gesture born of frustration. The Regents are basically UC Berkeley grad weighted, so they have no emotional stake in UCLA taking it in the shorts on the football and basketball stage. And "opportunity cost" in terms of lost donations and ticket sales is probably too subtle a concept for political appointees, in any event.

So where do we go from here?

Misery loves company. This site was started, I believe, in 2005, during the death throes of the Karl Dorrell era, but also during the final 4 run in basketball.

Now, here we are, in 2011, having survived Karl Dorrell, only to have worse results with Rick Neuheisel and an uncertain future at best with Jim Mora. And the basketball program wheels have now spun off. There are 2 common denominators throughout this period.

First, on the negative side, this has all happened on Dan Guerrero's watch. And Chancellor Block continues to be indifferent to the slide in attendance and donations, making him an enabler at best and a co-conspirator at worst. Second, on the positive side, this continues to be the go-to location for hard news and insightful analysis on Bruin sports.

Thanks Nestor, G, DC and all the rest for putting in all the untold hours to keep this going, and giving us a sense of community which is missing elsewhere in our interactions with our alma mater. Here's to 2012.

I would say that it can't get any worse, but that would be tempting fate. In the meantime, we still have Bruins Nation. Thanks again.

Chancellor Block appears to relate very well to the Medical Center. So perhaps a medical analogy is in order with respect to our Athletic Department.

Our abysmal football record is not the disease. It is a symptom. If Jim Mora has a successful year (and we hope he does), it doesn't mean the patient is cured. It means the patient is in remission. The disease is Dan, and he remains lurking, ready to strike an already weak patient with whatever buffoonery is in the wings. Thinking that everything is okay if the football team win-loss record improves just means more symptoms down the road.

We need a Danectomy. And we need it stat.

Bumped. - BN Eds.

There has been quite a bit of back and forth about Chancellor Block's actions (or lack thereof) with respect to DG. This in turn has led to discussion about the proper place of athletics within UCLA, and whether athletic success matters in determining whether a university is "great". Here's my two cents.

First some definitions. There are "fans" and there are "grads". For this purpose, "fans" don't have ties to UCLA, other than as spectators with an interest (which could be rabid or not) in UCLA's success. Presumably fans see UCLA much more through an athletics lens, and judge the school primarily on that criterion. "Grads" went to UCLA, and therefore theoretically could have more vested interest than "fans". However, plenty of grads went to class, came home, went to class, came home, etc. So maybe not deep ties.

For example, I went to Stanford for grad school. But I never considered Stanford home, and I am fine with them winning (as long as they are not playing UCLA) but life goes on if they don't. "Grads" in this category presumably see UCLA much more through non-athletics lens, and measure the university accordingly.

Within the "grads" category, however, is a subset for which I use the term "alum". This is the category I fall in. When I compare the freshman I was in 1967 to the senior who graduated in 1971, there is a world of difference. Any success I had in the professional world was based on the foundation which was set at UCLA. I learned so much, and grew up in so many ways during my 4 years at UCLA. And here is the important part which Chancellor Block seems to miss.

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Dan Guerrero took care of the travel plans himself, so there are a couple of slight hiccups

Fly non-stop 1st class from LA to Italy (DG and wife). All others- DG did not make arrangements in time for anybody else- connecting flight through Seattle, Boise, Houston, Atlanta, Belgium, Germany

Hotel overlooking the Arno River and the Cathedral- Director's Suite (DG and wife). All others- DG forgot this too- stay 3 to a room in the industrial section by the airport. Major donors get indoor plumbing.

Monday- visit Uffizi Gallery to see Rembrandts, Botticelli's, etc. Stand in line for 3 hours before DG realizes Uffizi is closed on Monday

Tuesday- bus trip to Siena to see the Palio. Leave at crack of dawn to get good seat for the action. Stand in sun for 4 hours before somebody mentions that the race is on Sunday.

Where do I sign up?

We all want DG to go. But there has been no indication that Chancellor Block shares our perspective or even our interest in the current sad state of affairs or even the relevance of athletics. I am tired of moral victories, and bull shit bowl games. The following letter is out of frustration, but need to start somewhere.

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Men's water polo beat $C (helps to hold them under 50) for conference title. Next step National Semi in Berkeley vs. UCSD this Saturday at 3 PM. Championship game at 3 PM on Sunday. Other 2 teams in tourney are $C and Princeton. Nice to see some success, given the joke we have become in the revenue sports. This doesn't excuse Chianti Dan one iota. The water polo success is attributable 100% to the dedication and effort of our student athletes.

Every team except Penn State has a search process for a new head football coach at some point.  Hopefully, ours will come sooner (after this season) than later.

For the most part, if memory serves, we were excited by RN's arrival as head coach.  That excitement turned out to be premature.

Are there things we should look for next time around, to know if we are on the right track this time around?  A couple of preliminary indicators after the jump, for your consideration...

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I have always been impressed by the quality, intelligence and insights of the leaders of this site, and by many of the contributors.  As I recall, when CRN was hired, there was a strong sentiment that the school had made an excellent choice, and that UCLA would take its rightful place among the country's elite football programs.

Now here we are, having missed the opportunity to clean U$C's clock with their turmoil, and facing an uncertain future.  Somehow we did not see the train wreck coming down the track.  And again, it was not because of a lack of intelligence or insight.

Are there systemic issues at UCLA (chancellor, AD, etc) that need to be solved?  Or was it simply a matter of "wrong guy, wrong time" and we will get it right the next time?

I am not suggesting that  a change of head coach is on the immediate horizon.  I happen to think that would be a good thing.  But there will be a change at some point, because every program except Penn State gets a new coach from time to time.  So what can be done to improve our odds in the next go-around? 

 

Question for Rye and others-

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Remember Leonard Washington's groin shot in the Oklahoma game?  For curiosity, I went back and looked at $C's box score for the following game. Washington started and played 27 minutes.

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Per the official website

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This is probably no surprise, but the Lopez twins, per AP, have decided to turn pro.  They, per their mother (again per AP), intend to hire agents so there is no turning back.

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Anybody with info on the gymnastics team?

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