For those of you that missed it, Cleveland Cavaliers majority owner Dan Gilbert had a meltdown of epic proportions.

Big Deal.  Right?

Sports figures have been imploding since the advent of televised media coverage, and while many have had their moments, none have been quite like this.  This wasn't your average "Billy Martin/Lou Pinella" tantrum.  Ray Lewis' SuperBowl entrance? Tame.  Bob Knight pimp slapping one of his athletes on national television?  Childs Play. No. This was special. This was historic. This was an "I-just-drank-orange-juice-after-brushing-my-teeth" type of face cringer.  

Dan Gilbert placed a curse on Lebron James.  

An undergraduate from Michigan State, Juris Doctor from Wayne State, member of the Michigan State Bar, and 2006 Forbes 500 investor, DG channeled his inner witchdoctor and placed a curse on another human being, in open forum. Here's the funny part (and also what makes this event so newsworthy).

It's going to work.....and I've got a name for it.

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Piggybacking off some recent thought's from our own Captain Morgan and Co., I want to add some of my own thoughts on J-Force.

A few years back, The Discovery Channel aired a series of auto challenges billed as "The Mean Machine Cross Atlantic Challenge".  Although a bit contrived (the challenges were hand picked to add drama to the finishes), it showed an interesting contrast in automaker focus.  

The episode that most caught my attention, pitted a Corvette V06 versus a Ferrari 360 Modena. Five challenges included: acceleration, braking, low speed slalom, high speed slalom, and lateral acceleration. From the outset, the differences were quite clear.  The displacement of the Corvette was head and shoulders above the Ferrari, outgunning it in all of the straight line events in which horsepower had an opportunity to take affect.  It was spectacular in all the marquee events. Ten minutes into the program it dawned on me.  

"This is the damn NFL combine of autos". 

Ferrari won the lateral acceleration and braking challenges with ease.  To an unbiased viewer, these events seemed peripheral in nature. There was no glory in winning a lateral acceleration and braking challenges was there? Although unspoken during the program, the Corvette seemed the clear "combine" winner.  It was bigger, stronger, and much faster on the straight line comparisons. It was Darren McFadden.

Why then, if it appears so dominant in the head to head comparisons, does "Darren McFadden" not win on the streets of Monaco?  Why does the smaller, "slower", Ferrari continue to rack up hardware on the F1 circuit year after year? The answer lies in the differences between torque and horsepower.  Simply put, Ferrari is all about torque and balance, and not about top end, straight line horsepower-driven speed.

Simply put.  Justin Forsett is a Ferrari.  

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I'm not a football expert.  I don't truly "know" the game.   

Sure.  I played football as a kid (as many young teenagers do).  Mountain View Jr. High's coach was a great shop teacher named Mr. Dunning.  He ran one hell of a West Coast SBTFU-ARYGDP offense.  For those of you thinking "I have never heard of that offensive set", it's more commonly reffered to in Pop Warner as "Stop Bunching the Fuck Up, and Run Your Goddam Play". We ran it to perfection. Dare I say... we were potent!  

I've also played quite a bit of Madden Football on the PS2(3).  I know how to exploit the hell out of any 4-3 base defense. I can punish your nano blitzes, and exploit your zone coverage with zone beaters. I'll confuse you by flashing false tendencies, and build schemes around my money plays.  I can recite, verbatim, every formation in the Seahawks playbook.  I know.  Big deal right?

I read.  I study box-scores, game-tapes, and scouting sources, and although I'll never be called upon in an Appeal to Authority football argument, I fancy myself one of the more educated football fans roaming around the planet.  Most Field Gulls members generally are.  It's all part of my point though. I'm simply a fan who reads and commits countless hours of resources to memory, then finds logical ways to re-present the information with a twist.  There is certainly nothing in my experience that would qualify me as an authority for anything on-field related.

What I might offer though, is potentially a unique business perspective to the Seahawks discussion.  Without going through the pain of forcing you to read a resume', my company has grown now to nearly 20,000 employees, with 7 factories spread over 3 countries.  My daily battles are fought with the "Swoosh" and the "Trefoil".

With an uncapped 2010 looming, I want to offer a few thoughts on the business side of this labor stale-mate, and the implications they might have on the Seahawks make-up in the coming year.

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The business has hit it's annual auto-pilot phase.  Our winter/holiday development cycle has concluded, and the production lines are running at a boring, profitable pace.  I hate this time of the year. I have no idea what to do with my extra hour (or two) during the day.

I decided to use a couple spare hours to create a FanPost about how critical the Seahawks first selection was; however, I needed to make sure that I wasn't doing so just "to do so".  

Instead of creating on the fly, I decided that channeling my inner Edward R. Murrow (I'm a big fan, and he is renowned for his thorough preparation) would be more appropriate. I studied. I studied draft charts. I studied trade value matrixes.  I studied scouting reports.  I studied team needs capsules (not just for the Seahawks, but for nearly every team); however, the more I studied, the more I began defending my position against myself.  I have concluded that I was wrong.  

My original title was going to be "The Importance of the 6th Pick". 

I have decided to "throw the flag" and live with the results.  This is what I now believe.

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Apparently Alex Gibbs has decided to accept a position with Seattle as the new offensive line coach, meaning that Mike Solari has coached his last game with the team.  Not that I have anything against Solari at all, but I like the feel of the purported staff moves that are being made.

Alex Gibbs is widely known as one of the foremost experts of the zone blocking scheme, and is largely credited with the Denver Broncos Offensive line during the late 90's, in which they not only won back to back Superbowls, but dominated teams with the run.

His recent tenure in Houston also appears successful, as the Texans have established positive line play (pass protection).  I look forward to seeing John's assessment of his successes and/or failures, and how much of that early Bronco credit should reside with Gibbs.

Instant Reaction:

If this in fact is the direction Seattle is going with it's running game, I think RB may be devalued in the draft (I know some have expressed interest in a guy like Mattews out of Fresno St. at #40).  Denver had all kinds of success finding "one cut and go" gems later in the draft, and I don't see any reason that philosophy might change now.  I recognize that Gibbs had little control over the draft in those years (if any), but I believe that the collective consensus has leaned toward giving the O-line credit for the success of the running game during those stretches, and could see Seattle now piggy-backing off some of those philosophies. 

Offensive Line should also be more of a mid-first round,/2nd round consideration now as well (as effective zone blocking guys can be had later, for cheaper).  Bulaga and Capers come to mind.

Since both DT's are likely to be gone by #6, all signals may be pointing at Seattle going after that franchise QB with their 6th overall selection, although DE could be a consideration there as well.

Coming off a season that will more than likely end 5-11, the notion of "safety" feels rather arbitrary; however, a changing GM, possibility of a new coach, and various contract situations, make certain scenarios more probable than others.

Here is a laymen's attempt at projecting the relative probabilities of certain starters wearing Seahawk blue next year.

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For those that have studied debate, it can be frustrating to entertain arguments that contain fundamental logical errors.  Once understood, these fundamentals provide very tight structural frameworks for logical thought formulation. Debating those without this fundamental base, can be an exhausting excersize; however, the subtleties contained within the definitions of logical fallacy can be equally as frustrating to those without the base of knowledge to work from. At times, it appears that the other party is simply debating to hear themselves argue.  It often comes off as "logical snobbery".  

This Fan Post is simply meant to be a reference (I admit I dusted off some of the old college texts for accuracy and have various tidbits from that manuscript scattered throughout).  I won't pretend to know any more than the next guy that has studied the topic, but I figured it would be a good idea to create some material which all Field Gulls could access when formulating arguments. When applicable, I have attempted to tie these thoughts back into real world NFL examples for clarity. 

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John... this might be a question for you to ask your developers if you like the idea... but wouldn't it be cool if Field Gulls had a comments HOF?

I guess the premise would be that any "Green-thumbed-Rec" would be an inductee.  You could obviously set the Rec. threshold's at your discretion to capture only the best.

I have often reminisced about some of those great comments from past posts, and thought "Wouldn't it be sweet if John immortalized them in his own Field Gulls Comment Hall of Fame".

I would assume the DEV's could attach a custom field to the ajax comments that could be queried by a plugin and filtered by number of Rec's.

Food for thought...

Just when you thought it was safe...

...to write off Blake Griffin, reports surface like this:

According to some reports, the Thunder and Clippers may swap picks (the Thunder draft third overall), enabling the Thunder to take Griffin and the Clippers to draft Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio. But again, a lot of that is contingent on the Clippers being able to find a taker for Davis.

The Thunder will need to offer more than #3 overall of course, but the deal will NOT include Durant, Green, or Westbrook.  OKC sitting on (2) first rounders this year and (2) first rounders next year have the ammunition to get this done.

A league sources cites:

...Thunder do have is an abundance of future first-round selections. They own two potential lottery choices next season -- their own and Phoenix's -- and a first-rounder in 2011. Two of those choices and this year's No. 3 would likely be enough to land Griffin.

 

The ramifications of such a deal are clear.  The thunder would be able to field a starting 5 capable of getting to the playoffs next year.  

Matchup Problems

Talk about nightmares for opposing defenses.  The flexibility of fielding both big and small lineups of equal quality from both an offensive and defensive standpoint is huge. Both scenarios offer a dynamic mix of slashers, scorers, and willing defenders.  

Tough as nails 'Small ball': Griffin, Green, Durant, Sefalosha, Westbrook

Conventional 'Big Lineup': Kristic, Griffin, Green, Durant, Westbrook.

Fingers Crossed on this one.

There is something to be said...

...for holding onto the 3rd pick in this years draft.  Historically, the top 3 picks dont bust, and rarely end up as role players.  In terms of risk assessment, it makes sense that you take the remainder of Rubio/Thabeet.  But how about value?  Is there an deal out there that makes the Thunder a stronger team, faster?

There is speculation the Wizards could be shopping for Ricky Rubio, and would be willing to part with their #5 selection and Javale McGee to acquire him.  I want to offer an opinion on this deal, and open up discussion on how it would affect OKC.

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Note of Qualification

I'd like to qualify my post by saying that I do not pret end to know what will be, and I do not claim that the opinion I am about to express is fact. I will offer it up as a point of debate, in an attempt to discuss what skill set Aaron Curry truly brings to the table.  I believe there is always more than meets the eye (or in this case... the stat sheet).

The Knock on Curry

It has been widely scouted that Aaron curry isn't an elite level pass rusher due to his low sack count.  Others have suggested that while "solid" in all areas, his game isn't that dynamic in that he isn't a difference maker.  His draft tags of "safe pick" and "solid" lead some to associate him with being "serviceable", "un-sexy", or lacking "playmaking ability".  Phrases like durable, intelligent, and productive are used and may unfairly convey that Aaron Curry is not explosive. I believe a closer look may reveal the exact opposite.

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The Irony

In 2005, Seattle man-handled defenses at the point of attack.  Walter Jones, Steve Hutchinson, Chris Gray, Robbie Toebeck, and Sean locklear were a man-on run blocking force of nature.  Big, powerful, prototypical offensive linemen.  Teams knew where we were running and when we were running, and could do nothing about it.

At the same time, Seattle implemented a defensive front 4 that were smallish in nature. Fisher, Bernard, Darby, and Wistrom were in the mold of the quick, gap penetrating D-lineman, focused on creating pressure in the backfield.  Somewhat weak against the run at the point of attack, they made up for it with explosion off the ball and disrupted lanes.

The irony that I am seeing as the draft is approaching is that there seems to be a fundamental "flip-flop" in philosophy.  Our defensive line is getting beefier, while our offensive line should be looking to get leaner and more athletic (zone blocking concept).  I see this as a terrific move for the following reasons:

Offensively

From an economic standpoint, smaller, more athletic linemen are historically cheaper, and drafted more easily in the middle rounds.  Teams pay for large immovable men. Fortunately for teams implementing zone blocking, that isn't the skill set most required of the scheme.  

A switch to zone blocking also allows for a quicker learning curve. Zone blocking "rules" don't change depending on what the lineman sees in front of him.   In a "man blocking" system, lineman are assigned defenders according to the desired running lanes. Defensive front changes, stunts and blitzes, create a need for an O-lineman to read the change, and adapt his responsibility. Zone blocking uses rules that do not change according to the adjustments on the defensive line. Since there isn't as much emphasis on reading defensive changes and stunts many of the mistakes caused by lineman misreads are eliminated.

As the Denver Broncos and KC Chiefs have proven, a team that successfully implements a zone blocking scheme becomes far less dependent on RB investment.  A running back that may not possess the combine impressive numbers, yet possesses great field vision can succeed in a ZB system. This dramatically reduces a teams need to pony up big numbers for blue-chip RB's.

Defensively

The move toward larger defensive linemen solves two main problems.  Firstly, the Seahawks become stronger at the line of scrimmage (a weakness over the past few seasons), and second, it keeps more offensive linemen from getting to the second level (where our LB's don't possess great shed and tackle ability).

As it pertains to the Draft

I can't help but feel that our new philosophies may cause some head scratchers come draft time.  It has been widely accepted that OL depth (for example)  is a need, but names like Monroe, Smith, Oher, and Britton may not even be in play.  Fans may be left with that slack jawed "huh" feeling if names like Lydon Murtha or Andrew Gardner are called, but if this is the way it plays out, I fully support it.  Both of these linemen are sub 5 second 40 O-lineman with mobility that I feel have much better value in a ZB system than their second day draft rankings suggest.

Although somewhat surprising (coming from 2005 units that drastically differ in concept) I love the new philosophies TR and Jr. are implementing. It allows us to allocate Seahawk investment into areas that historically win championships (QB, CB, DL), and away from areas that historically are able to be filled later in the draft (OL RB WR)

I love the sound of the following story

Several sources have suggested the Redskins have begun to send out feelers on what it might take to get Seattle's pick, and the Seahawks, at this stage, would likely seek two first-round picks on the high end. That was a price the Redskins were willing to pay for Chad Johnson last year and Jay Cutler a few weeks back, although neither deal was completed.

1. With the Redskins 13th pick Seattle likely would still have a shot at either the OT they need in Oher, or a playmaker like Maclin, Wells, or Moreno.  Andre Smith might also be sitting there.

2. Should the price be (2) firsts, the Seahawks could end up with another high pick next year (due to the strength of the NFC East and the Skins big needs at Tackle, Guard, Defensive end, and linebacker).

3. Next year looks to be a very strong year for QB's, and it could very well be the first capped year for rookies (adding to the value of the pick).  Seattle could pass on Sanchez this year, and end up with an equally talented prospect at a much friendlier cap number.

Here's the link from the Tribune

Hypothesis: Completion percentage is the single best statistical indicator of NFL QB success.

There hasn't been a more discussed draft topic lately than the annual debate about what types of college quarterbacks translate into successful NFL quarterbacks. Opinions seem to differ as to whether the quintessential "gunslinger", or the more cerebral "accurate" passer is a safer 1st round pick.

Specifically, as it relates to the Seattle Seahawks, the debate over whether or not the Seahawks should draft Stafford (or Sanchez for that matter) is complex to say the least.  Conventional wisdom would lead us to believe that any single statistic cannot predict success in a draftee.  I thought the theory deserved to be tested and found that, as odd as it seems, there may be a statistical category that can predict NFL QB success better than others.

After some research, there does seem to be a very interesting correlation between QB completion percentage and subsequent success in the NFL. The premise is that collegiate QB's that complete more than 60% of their passes in their final season, have a better chance of NFL success, while QB's that complete LESS than 60% are substantially more likely to fail.

The following group of QB's drafted in the first round (1997-2004 ... stopped in 2004 to allow for a development window) completed LESS THAN 60% of their passes during their final collegiate season. This list is complete .

1997: Jim Druckenmiller, Virginia Tech (Completion Percentage: 54 percent)

1998: Ryan Leaf, Washington State (Completion Percentage: 55 percent). The (1) QB taken in Round 1 with better than 60% (Manning).

1999: Akili Smith, Oregon (Completion Percentage: 58 percent); Cade McNown, UCLA (Completion Percentage: 58 percent). The three QB's taken in round 1 with better than 60% (Couch, McNabb, Culpepper)

2000 Only 1 QB selected in Round 1. Pennington had higher than 60% completion percentage.

2001: Michael Vick, Virginia Tech (Completion Percentage: 54 percent)

2002: Joey Harrington, Oregon (Completion Percentage: 59 percent); Patrick Ramsey, Tulane (Completion Percentage: 57 percent. The (1) QB taken in Round 1 with better than 60% (Carr).

2003: Kyle Boller, California (Completion Percentage: 53 percent); Rex Grossman, Florida (Completion Percentage: 57 percent). The two QB's taken in round 1 with better than 60% (Palmer and Leftwich)

2004 J.P. Losman, Tulane (Completion Percentage: 59 percent). The three QB's taken in round 1 with better than 60% (Manning, Rivers, Rothlisberger).

10 out of the 21 QB's completed less than 60% of their final collegiate season:

Legends: None

Pro Bowl: Michael Vick

Stars: None

Some Success: Rex Grossman

Limited  to No Success: Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey, Cade McNown, Joey Harrington, JP Losman

Failure: Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller, Akili Smith

11 Completed more than 60% of their passes in their final collegiate year.

Legends: Peyton Manning

Pro Bowlers Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Ben Rothlisberger, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Dante Culpepper

Stars: Philip Rivers

Some Success: Byron Leftwich

Limited  to No Success: David Carr, Tim Couch

Thats a staggering 80% of the "Less Than 60%" group that have experienced little or no NFL success (based on a subjective common sense filter)

. . . and an equally staggering 73% of the "More Than 60%" group that are stars or better (Obviously there is some room for debate as to which categories I have ranked them in, but they should be fairly representative of the collective consensus).

With this is mind:

What do this years 1st Round Draft Picks bring to the table?

Mark Sanchez: 65.8%

Matt Stafford: 61.4%

Josh Freeman: 58.6%

Time will tell if this Statistical Model holds up for these 3.

Offseason Fun:

I was looking through some old CD cases and realized how much Marcus Trufant looks like Slim from Boyz II Men. 

via cache.daylife.com

via i4.photobucket.com

At any rate, there are alot of great (intellectually heavy) pieces out there now, so I figured I'd post some fun.  Also, the Seahawks are a fairly specific category so I figured opening it up to the NFL would be better.  I have a couple more I will post below.

What else can you find?

I used the search tool and didn't see anything come up for this topic and thought it was interesting.  Apologies if this is redundant.

Competition Committee to evaluate a new Method of Ordering Draft Picks.

The proposal: would keep non-playoff teams seeded as they normally would be, but would re-order the playoff teams according to performance.  

At face value it seems like a step in attaining fair draft ordering, but discounts some factors such as lower quality teams riding a hot streak, and upper echelon teams suffering injuries.

This from the Full Article

"A team can win a playoff game and yet get to draft before the team it beat," Rich McKay, the committee chairman, pointed out yesterday.

That situation will occur next month when the Eagles get to pick 21st while the Giants pick 29th.

Having never blogged before, I am torn between pre-apologizing for any improperly formatted copy, and cooly acting as though I am a seasoned web-logger-guy.  After a minimum of at least 20 seconds, I have chosen not to mention my blogging inexperience.

After having recently re-thought the idea of Seattle drafting of a QB at #4, I chose to research as many opinions on this matter as possible so that I might form a more educated opinion.  I came across a football outsiders piece that, in retrospect, was one part eye opening, and one part common sense.  

The Premise: Designing a career flowchart for an NFL QB.  The chart allows one to assign a level of immediacy to drafting a new prospect, relative to where your current starter resides on the chart.

via www.footballoutsiders.com

According to this chart, Matt Hasselbeck probably took the: prospect - tweener - star - veteran route and currently stands to slide into a mentor role, with a very outside shot at becoming a legend (should he fullfil my wildest dreams of Quarterbacking Seattle to a disney parade and subsequent dinner at the white house).  Superbowl notwithstanding, it is clear that the time is now for Seattle to jump on a new prospect.

This from the article:

The flowchart reminds us of an obvious-but-important fact: It's very hard to acquire a quarterback on the left side. Matt Cassel was the only player who approached Young Star status; he was franchised. Prospects come almost exclusively through the draft. . . .

 

The Panthers and Seahawks have Veteran quarterbacks who were once Stars. They should pull the trigger on Prospects now. Barring that, the Panthers should take their chances with a Tweener or even risk a Baggage Guy who could quickly be discarded in August if he doesn't pan out. The Seahawks have a Tweener in Seneca Wallace, but they could do better.

I don't necessarily believe that QB's need to be drafted in the top half of round one to be considered a legitimate prospect, but I do feel he should be more than a "flier". Teams that dont account for, and appropriately deal with this transition usually suffer through years of Stan Gelbagh, Kelly Stouffer, and Dan McGwire. 

Be gentle...

Full Article Here