Last night on MHRRadio, someone pointed out that ESPN's Matt Mosely had said the following of the Broncos:

I'm pretty sure the Cowboys' pass rush is overrated: The Cowboys are about to face one of the worst 3-0 teams (Denver Broncos) since the merger. After wins over Denver and Kansas City, Dallas will head into a bye with a nice-looking 4-1 record. emphasis mine

Just off the top of my head, I can think of one recent 3-0 team this year's team could definitely beat: Last year's Broncos. Think about it for a minute. Last year's defense flat out wouldn't be able to stop our running game. This year's defense would give up some points, but they'd also force Cutler into a pick or two, and I'm inclined to believe that they'd also force at least two fumbles. As for special teams, our return game may not be doing much this year, but nothing sparks a return game like going up against the Denver special teams coverage units did. This year's coverage would be more than enough to stifle Eddie Royal and co. Even coaching would be an advantage for this year's Broncos. Nolan ought to be the early favorite for CoTY (screw the fact that he's only an assistant. What he's done with our defense defies logic.) Jedi McD showed last in last year's Pats Broncos game that he's more than capable of finding and exploiting the weaknesses of last year's team. All in all it probably amounts to a pretty fair butt-whooping of last year's team.

So there you have it. The 2009 Broncos are better than their 2008 counterpart. The 2009 Broncos aren't even the worst 3-0 team in the past two years, much less the worst ever. QED.

Now this isn't to target Mosley specifically. I've seen this sentiment echoed repeatedly in the MSM. Mosely is just one example of the ignorance going around. I just can't wait until Sunday when Dawkins, Orton, and the crew put it to Mosley's Cowboys. Go Broncos!

Shane Battier apparently contracted either food poisoning or a stomach virus before game 1 and went to a Portland hospital before game 1. Battier said he felt weak throughout the game. "It was terrible. I didn’t feel good yesterday. I was still sluggish. The adrenaline got me through the game." That probably explains his poor showing in game 1, when he shot 1-5. Battier still had the highest +/- for the Rockets. Good luck to Portland in game 2.

The hot topic right now is whether or not we should trade Champ.

When it comes down to it, the question isn't really whether we SHOULD trade him, it's what offer a team would have to make for it to be worth it for us to let him go. Remember: the point isn't what we would feasably GET for him... it's whether or not you'd make the trade if it was offered.

Poll

What would a team have to offer before it would be a good idea for the Broncos to trade Champ?

9%

High 1st round pick

11 votes

20%

Mid 1st round pick

25 votes

10%

Low 1st round pick

13 votes

22%

1st and 2nd round picks

28 votes

3%

Package of lower picks/and players

4 votes

7%

2nd round pick

9 votes

0%

Trade him for ANYONE who could start on our D-Line

1 votes

10%

I wouldn't give him up short of multiple 1st round picks!

13 votes

0%

It doesn't matter- just get rid of him!

1 votes

13%

Trade Champ? Not when he's got a shot at the HoF!!!

17 votes

122 votes | Poll has closed

 

Jay Cutler was interviewed by Jim Rome today (1/29) on Jim Rome is Burning. He talks about the end of this season, Shanny's firing, McD's hiring, his diabeties, and makes his pick for Superbowl XLIII. He seemed very positive about McD, and said that looking back now, he understands Shanny's firing. I suppose that should put to rest any talk that his silence indicated that he was pouting about Shanny's firing and McD's hiring.

As best I can tell, there are 9 teams in the NFL that primarily ran a 3-4 defense this season: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Diego, New England, New York (Jets), Miami, San Francisco, and Cleveland.

This means that there are 9 starting Nose Tackles right now: Haloti Ngata, Casey Hampton, Jay Ratliff, Jamal Williams, Vince Wilfork, Kris Jenkins, Jason Ferguson, Isaac Sopoaga, and Shaun Rogers.

Of the 9 NT's:

   3 are 1st round picks (Ngata, Hampton, and Wilfork)

  3 are second round picks (Wiliams, Jenkins, and Rogers)

  3 are later round picks (Ferguson, Sopoaga, and Rogers).

  3 have played for more than one NFL team (Rogers, Jenkins and, Ferguson) and only Jason Ferguson has played for more than one 3-4 team.

 

What's immediately evident in those numbers is just how hard it is to get a nose tackle. Once a 3-4 team gets a good NT, they pretty much don't give him up. Ferguson, the only NT to have played for multiple teams is 34 and Dallas gave up on him last year after he missed 15 games in the 2007 season. Otherwise, Ferguson is just like Jenkins and Rogers, a 4-3 DT who was lured away from the team that drafted him to play NT in a 3-4. NT's aren't easy to find in the draft, either- 2/3's of the NT's in the league were high picks, and among the other 3, Ferguson, as mentioned above is on his last legs, Sopoaga has not been any better than mediocre for the 49'ers (in fact the 49'ers apparently planned to move him to DE before the season), and Jay Ratliff... made the Pro Bowl this year.

Ratliff's Pro Bowl appearance may be an oversimplification, however (he plays for the Cowboys, for one), as he plays in a 1 gap Bum Phillips system designed for pass rush. A former DE himself, Ratliff is no larger (at 298) than either of the DE's who flank him and Dallas schemes to get him single blocked by Centers, which is a big part of why he got 7.5 sacks in 2008 (which is why he went to the pro bowl). My point about Ratliff is that he really isn't at all a traditional 2 gap NT who takes on multiple blockers.

 

So where am I going with this? Denver needs a NT. Denver REALLY needs a NT. Even if the Bronco's aren't planning on moving to a 3-4 immediately, we need a good 2 gap NT. The Bronco's have two routes to accomplish this goal: steal one from another team- and since 3-4 teams don't seem to let go of NT's, we'd have to look at 4-3 DT's who we think can play nose. Alternately, we can look for a Nose Tackle in the draft.

What this all means is that the a good NT isn't going to come cheap- if we aren't willing to either shell out good money for a Haynesworth type player, shell out draft picks in a trade (and at this point no viable player is on the trading block), or spend a high pick this year in the draft. What do y'all think?

Poll

Where should the Bronco's look for a NT?

17%

Spend lots of money on Haynesworth

23 votes

5%

Look elsewhere in free agency

7 votes

53%

Use our 1st round pick

72 votes

16%

Use our 2nd round pick

22 votes

7%

Elsewhere

10 votes

134 votes | Poll has closed

It is undeniable that turnover differential has been key in Broncos games this year. As I'm sure everyone has heard over and over by now, the Broncos have won every game this year in witch they have won or been tied in the turnover battle. This is tough because the Broncos are the second worst team in the league in turnover differential, at -12.

One thing that I don't think gets enough attention is that while the Broncos have turned the ball over a lot this season (24 times), they have the FEWEST takeaways in the league, with 12.

Despite the defense's inability to cause turnovers, the onus has still been on the offense. The prevailing logic has been that as long as the offense (Read: Jay Cutler) is careful and limits turnovers, the Broncos will win games. Obviously, I'm all for the offense not turning the ball over, but even the most careful offenses still make mistakes.

The lack of takeaways is a big factor in why the Broncos rank only 10th in points per game, despite being 2nd in yards per game. If you look at the top 7 scoring teams in the league, you find that they have 26, 17, 21, 24, 23, 22, and 26 takeaways, compared to Denver's 12 (and the 17 belongs to the Saints who are 1st in yards per game).  it's all about field position- which was Guru's big issue last season. A takeaway on the opponent's side of the field can turn into a field goal even if the offense stalls completely. Considering that the Broncos are only about 4 points per game behind the league lead, a few easy scores off turnovers would have made a big difference.

With 18 receptions against San Diego, Brandon Marshall not  only tied  Tom Fears for the second most catches in a game in NFL history, but he also moved into the league lead in catches on the season, despite having missed the first week. 

Only the Texans' Andre Johnson has a legitimate chance to pass him (assuming you count the makeup game as a week 2 game).

This brings to issue Marshall's goal of 140 catches for the season. If you're wondering, Marvin Harrison currently  holds the record for most receptions in a single season with 143, so Marshall predicting a 140 catch season is rather akin to Selvin Young saying that his goal is to rush for 2000 yards this season. Indeed, most experts- and even most of us, probably thought that Marshall's goal was much more likely to be based in fantasy- like Young's- than reality.

Guess what? They (we) were wrong. Marshall IS going to break the record. here's why:

1. Those of us who watched the Beast during the preseason came to the conclusion that he flat out couldn't be single covered.  Marshall lent a lot of weight to this argument by thoroughly abusing Antonio Cromartie- a pro bowl corner- throughout the game.

2. Assuming that Defensive Coordinators come to the same conclusion that I just did, you have to assume they'll respond by throwing double coverage Marshall's way. Fortunately for Marshall, his absence allowed Eddie Royal to serve a warning to Defensive Coordinators around the league as to what will happen if they pay too much attention to Marshall. In case you've forgotten, Eddie Royal showed up a pro bowl corner himself- namely DeAngelo Hall- to the tune of 9 catches for 146 yards. Need more convincing that it would be a mistake to over cover Marshall? How about Tony Scheffler, who has 136 yards receiving so far.  Don't underestimate the importance of having a good #2 receiver.  Harrison had his record breaking season in 2002- for anyone paying attention, that was Reggie Wayne's second season in the NFL.

3. Through the entire preseason, and the first two weeks of the season, the Bronco's starting O-line has allowed exactly one sack- and that on the Cutler quasi-fumble at the end of the Chargers game, which really wasn't a sack, per se. As long as the O-line keeps giving Cutler time, he'll be able to keep finding B-Marsh, and B-Marsh will keep racking up receptions. Even more promising is that of the Bronco's remaining 14 games, only 6 of those are against teams that were in the upper half of the league in sacks last year. Even better, two of those 6 are against the Chiefs, who traded away Jared Allen during the off season. So don't expect the protection Cutler is getting to fall off.

4. For those of you keeping score (in other words, all of you)- the Broncos are averaging 40 points per game, 325 passing yards per game, 37 passing attempts per game, and 26 completions per game. Those numbers come against just anybody, either. Both the Chargers and the raiders  have strong secondaries- last season the raiders ranked 12th in the league in opponent QB Rating, while the Chargers ranked 1st. The Broncos pass offense looks like it's still picking up steam- not like it's about to taper off.

5. Don't expect the Broncos to go more run heavy during the rest of the season, either. Both the raiders and the Chargers had big questions about their run defenses coming into their respective games- and neither team showed much ability to stop the Denver run. If anything, expect Denver to pass the ball more as it faces stouter run defenses and weaker secondaries.

14 games from now, expect Brandon Marshall- B-Marsh- the Beast- Baby T.O. to have another title;   NFL record holder.