Number 8 as in the centerfielder. It is obvious to all that the organization made a significant decision today about the future. Whether you want to believe that La Russa ran Colby out of town, or that the front office was sick and tired of waiting for Rasmus to live up to his potential, or that someone just really liked the name Marc Rzepczynski, the equation for centerfield has changed in an important way. So I thought it would be interesting to see how the options in centerfield compare for this year, next year, and on.

            So obviously we have Jon Jay as the everyday starter in CF for the rest of the year. I guess Patterson (ugh) is the back-up CF. If one of them gets hurt/is ineffective/clashes with the manager/other stupid random reason why they can't play, it appears that left-handed hitting (and throwing for those who care about that sort of thing) Adron Chambers could at least fill in in CF for a few games here and there, if not do more. Chambers has been the everyday CF for Memphis in 2011 and has put up a decent line of .273/.360/.413/.344 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA) in 351 PA, which compares favorably to Jon Jay, a player who Chambers has often been compared to, who had a .281/.338/.394/.328 line in a full season in 2009. Jay then had .321/.394/.491/.407 line in 191 PA which earned him a call up to the big league club in 2010, and he has since not looked back, currently sporting a sparkly .312/.363/.438/.351 line, aided by, as we all know, a .352 BABIP. For his career, Jay has maintained a .351 BABIP over 612 PA, not quite enough to say that that is his true talent, but interesting nonetheless. Chambers' line has been produced with the benefit of .322 BABIP, almost dead on for the league average. With no reports of his centerfield defense being terrible, I don't see why he couldn't be a perfectly acceptable fill in or even regular backup.

            At AA, there's Tommy Pham. A toolsy player who has started to put it together last year, the right-handed hitting Pham has a .294/.372/.519/.380 (AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA) line this year with a solid BB rate (10.7%), a high but not astronomical K rate (24.1%) and a very helpful .378 BABIP. His numbers are impressive, however, the hitting environment at Hammons Field in Springfield tempers expectations just a little, as it is a park that greatly favors hitters, although lefties more than righties. Unfortunately for Pham, he suffered a wrist injury in late May and was put on the disabled list on June 6. His return this year is questionable, reports Kary Booher, although it appears surgery is not required. If he can get healthy there remains a chance he could become a serviceable CF, although he would not appear to be Major-League ready until at least 2013. Anybody have any word on his defense in center? I have heard it be anywhere from just average to a real asset that could play in the big leagues next year.

            Below AA, There's non-prospect Adam Melker (.621 OPS) in Palm Beach and not really anything else of note. It gets somewhat interesting in Quad Cities. Perhaps the best hitting prospect currently in the system is Oscar Taveras. Only 19 years old, Taveras is destroying the Midwest League, to a line of .393/.437/.596/.456. Currently playing RF for QC, Taveras has been described as having the tools to play center, but is likely playing right this year because of multiple hamstring issues that have limited him to just 45 games and 197 PA this year. This year Quad Cities has had a sort of timeshare in CF with Nicholas Longmire and Michael Swinson. After an exciting campaign last year in Batavia, Longmire, 22, has definitely cooled off in Quad Cities. He currently sports a .640 OPS with an OBP at .290. Not very good.  Swinson has been not much better, with an OPS of .681. While most of Longmire's OPS is in his slugging, Swinson has a respectable .358 OBP. Neither has hit terribly well but because CF is one of the toughest positions to play defensively, the level of offense that corresponds to league average is significantly lower than league average. 

            Beyond A-ball, is soon-to-be 22 year old Virgil Hill, a 6th round pick of the 09 draft. As an injury sub for QC in the early part of the year, Hill struggled offensively, except in the stolen base category, where he was 8-11. A speedy CF who the Cardinals hope can learn to hit, Hill is quickly becoming old for his level, and needs to start producing immediately if he wants to still be considered a legit prospect. He also appears to have been playing more left and right as opposed to center, which is not a good sign as the Cardinals, in general, prefer to keep players at as difficult a position they can handle until the players proves that he cannot handle it. Other longshots who could emerge as options for the future in centerfield include Nick Martini, a fringy CF/COF prospect who has yet to hit in Batavia, although he has played exclusively in CF this year, and Steven Ramos, a 21 year old centerfielder who has an .802 OPS in Johnson City. Lance Jeffries and C.J. McElroy are high draft picks in the most recent MLB draft who have signed and reported to the GCL, possibly the lowest level of organized affiliate baseball in the states. The only other ray of hope that could be in the organization is Charlie Tilson, and outfield prospect from the Chicago area, drafted by the Cardinals in the 2nd round. Opinions are generally high on Tilson, a left-handed hitting and throwing outfielder who has a committment to play college baseball at the University of Illinois. The Cardinals are trying to make an attractive enough offer to Tilson to entice him to skip college and turn pro immediately. The aggregation of scouting reports on Tilson that the always excellent futureredbirds,net put together definitely leaves a warm feeling, especially when scouts compare him to some of the past couple of year's break-out players in Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. 

            As currently constituted, the Cardinals minor league system is not bereft of centerfield prospects, but the pool of realistic candidates is shallow and have a very significant bust rate. Personally, I am, reluctantly, committed to Jon Jay for the rest of the season as the starting CF. In the longer term, however much I wish it could happen, I am not very confident that Adron Chambers or Tommy Pham or Oscar Taveras or anyone else currently in the system will rise up and become a better than average centerfielder. It's certainly possible, but depending on one of them becoming a 3-4 WAR or better centerfielder who starts 140 games seems foolish to me. It's one thing to expect one of Freese, Cox or Carpenter to be able to be league average or better at 3rd for the next 3-5 years for minimal salary. It's entirely another to depend on the current crop of centerfield prospect to do the same. I don't doubt that some of the prospects listed will make the major leagues; it's taking the next step and becoming a core player such as Yadier Molina, Jaime Garcia, and maybe even Jason Motte a little bit.

            The other options, besides relying on the minors to produce a player, are to trade for one or sign a free agent. As we have just seen, trading for a young, talented, and big-league ready CF is very, very costly, and should be for good reason. The way the front office has jealously protected the minor league assets that have been developed the past couple of years leads me to believe that it is unlikely that they would be willing to send multiple quality (e.g., Top 10) prospects for a CF who they haven't really developed. However much I would be pleased if the team swung a reasonable deal for an up and coming young centerfielder with range a bit of pop in his bat, it seems like a path that is very much not in line with the team's track record. 

            Here are the 2012 free agent options with age at time of free agency and last three years WAR totals (09, 10, 11) per MLBtraderumors and Fangraphs:

Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (32) (0.1, 0.8, 0.2)
Carlos Beltran (35) (3.0, 0.9, 3.9)
Willie Bloomquist (34) - $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout (0.0, -0.8, 0.1)
Mike Cameron (39) (-0.4, -0.1, 4.3)
Coco Crisp (32) (1.4, 3.3, 1.6
David DeJesus (32) (3.6, 2.6, 0.5)
Scott Hairston (32) (1.6, 0.1, 0.5)
Andruw Jones (35) (0.7, 1.7, 0.1)
Nate McLouth (30) - $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout (3.4, -1.2, 0.3)
Corey Patterson (32) (-0.3, 1.0, 0.6)
Cody Ross (31) (2.0, 2.3, 0.2)
Grady Sizemore (29) - $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout (2.0, -0.3, 1.2)

            And the 2013 free agents, also per MLBTR and Fangraphs:

Center fielders
Michael Bourn (30) (4.9, 4.8, 3.5)
Marlon Byrd (35) (1.6, 4.3, 1.8)
Melky Cabrera (28) (1.7, -1.0, 3.2)
Curtis Granderson (32) - $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout (3.0, 3.6, 4.7)
Matt Kemp (28) (5.1, 0.3, 4.8)
Angel Pagan (31) (2.9, 5.4, 0.8)
Aaron Rowand (35) (2.5, 0.2, 1.0)
B.J. Upton (28) (2.3, 3.9, 1.5)
Shane Victorino (32) (3.6, 3.7, 4.4)

            The whole point of having Rasmus as the CF for the next four years was to have a well above average player at a premium position on the field, for well below his market value. Having a player like him allows the team to pay market value for players like Carpenter, Holliday, Berkman, Molina, Wainwright, Garcia, and yes the big one, Pujols. Without starters of Rasmus's (or Jay's) current caliber at multiple positions, there is no way this team can make the playoffs at its current payroll size and layout. Regarding the free agents, nobody really stands out as a cheap and effective option, a common problem when a team tries to solve a problem with free agents. 

            If anyone has other information (defensive ability, offensive profile, favorite ice cream flavor)  about the strengths and weaknesses of the players mentioned in the Cardinals system or an intriguing trade option, please chime in. Thanks to futureredbirds.net, Fangraphs.com, MLBTraderumors.com, and the Springfield News Leader

The way the baseball schedule works has intrigued me since I could read and interpret the sports page of the newspaper. Who we play, when we play them, how long has it been, all that stuff. So as I was procrastinating studying for my calculus test, I randomly came across a MLS schedule analysis here on SBN (I said it was random). I was then motivated to see how the Cardinals schedule broke down and if there were any interesting stretches or series. So I went through the schedule, series by series, to see how the Cardinals might earn their next division title. Note: The first series of a month is the first series that starts in that month.

March/April

Obviously the season starts a few days earlier this year than in years previous. I like this, not least because it means baseball starts sooner. The main concern I would expect to result from starting in late March is that it more games are being played in weather that can still be hazardous to baseball. Many remember the nasty weather of Opening Day 2009. Cold, wind, and blown saves are no way to start a season. Unfortunately, there is no real solution to this issue besides scheduling as few games in cities that have high risk for disruptive weather and outdoor stadiums as possible.

The Cardinals’ April didn’t look terribly difficult at first glance but after further review, could be daunting. Hopefully they come out firing like they have in recent seasons. The most difficult part of their April schedule will be the 10-games-in-10-days west coast swing vs SF, ARI, and LAD. The series against San Francisco is the first home series for them of the year so I expect some festivities regarding their success last year.  Meanwhile, the team bookends the month with two of the National League’s best last year, starting with 3 vs Padres and ending the month with 3 in Atlanta. Another challenge presents itself on the second to last weekend on the month when the Reds come to town. On the bright side, home series vs the Pirates and Nationals and a road trip to Houston shouldn’t be terribly difficult to wrangle 6-7 wins out of, although last year taught us the value of being sharp against all teams, not just the ones you are chasing in the standings.

Numbers after team is projected record by CAIRO projections, done here

3 vs SD (83.1-78.9) (Off day after Opening Day)

3 vs PIT (66.6-95.4)
Off
3 @ SF (86.9-75.1)

4 @ ARI (69.5-92.5)

3 @ LAD (82.2-79.8)
Off
3 vs WSH (74.9-87.1

3 vs CIN (87.2-74.8)
Off
3 @ HOU (66.9-95.1)

3 @ ATL (87.2-74.8)

Divisional Games: 9 (6 Home, 3 Road)

May

Unfortunately, May doesn’t appear any easier than April. In fact, it might be the toughest month of the year for the Cardinals. Only 2 off days are scheduled, one coming at the end of a 6 game home stand in the beginning of the month, one breaking up a 9 game road trip. After entertaining the Marlins for 4, a stretch of divisional games will test the Cardinals. The Brewers come to St. Louis, hopefully with their shirts tucked in and Greinke not scheduled to start. Then the team heads to Chicago for the first weekday series there in as long as I can remember. This also starts a stretch of 16-games-in-16-days. The road trip concludes with a series in Cincinnati with reigning NL Central champs. After this road trip, the Cardinals will have played each team in the division at least once. The slate presents one last challenge as the NL favorite Philadelphia journey to St. Louis for 2. The quality of the opposition drops temporarily, as the Cards host Houston and visit cross-state foe and interleague rival Kansas City (Is it bad that I don’t even think of an interleague matchup as exciting? To me, Kansas City is a just another team on the schedule. The other interleague matchups aren’t very exciting either. At least we’re not playing the Tigers this year). Following their trip to Kauffman Stadium, the Cardinals travel out west to San Diego and Colorado, two teams that combined to go 5-1 vs St. Louis at home. The road trip to Colorado last year was especially painful, with 3 crushing losses, reigniting memories of which I had successfully repressed until this FanPost. The month concludes with a 4 game series against the World Series Champions in St. Louis. We’ll get to see just about all of that incredible pitching they have. The best I think the team could hope for this month is 16-14, and that evens sounds optimistic to me.

4 vs FLA (79.3-82.7)

3 vs MIL (86.6-75.4)
Off
3 @ CHC (75.8-86.2)

3 @ CIN (87.2-74.8)

2 vs PHI (93.7-68.3)

2 vs HOU (66.9-95.1)

3 @ KC (66.2-95.8)

3 @ SD (83.1-78.9)
Off
3 @ COL (83.4-78.6)

4 vs SF (89.9-75.1)

Divisional Games: 11 (5 Home, 6 Road)

June

The best way I can think of for summer to announce its presence is through a 3 game sweep of the Cubs, in St. Louis, with the Cards comfortably in first place. If the Cards can achieve that after the first series of June I will be more than impressed. Following a grueling May schedule, The Cubs do indeed visit St. Louis on the first weekend of June. An interesting quirk of the June schedule is that the Cardinals have every Monday in the month off. As in May, the divisional games come in bunches, with the Cardinals visiting Houston and Milwaukee. The rest of the month, save a 3 game home stand with the Royals, is spent in games against the National and American League’s East divisions. Prior to hosting the Royals, the Cards head to Washington. The series’ following the mid-month trip to Washington comprise of 9 in a row at home vs KC, Philadelphia (again), and Toronto. The final road trip and series of the month sends the club to Baltimore. In all, this month isn’t too bad. Regular off-days allow the club to set its rotation as needed. Projected sub-.500 teams on the schedule include Chicago, Houston, Washington, Kansas City, and Baltimore, with only Milwaukee and Philadelphia currently appearing as obvious threats.

3 vs CHC (75.8-86.2)
Off
3 @ HOU(66.9-95.1)

3 @ MIL (86.6-75.4)
Off
3 @ WSH (74.9-87.1)

3 vs KC (66.2-95.8)
Off
3 vs PHI (93.7-68.3)

3 vs TOR (77.2-84.8
Off
3 @BAL (76.9-85.1)

Divisional Games: 9 (3 Home, 6 Road)

July

Honestly, I don’t really know what to make of this month. It starts off with 2 tough series against Tampa and Cincinnati, and the last series before the All-Star Break is a 4 gamer at home vs the Diamondbacks. Odd schedule quirk number 2 is that the series before the All-Star break in vs Arizona, and the All-star game and festivities are back in Phoenix. After the Cardinals all-stars put the National league on their back and start a winning streak for the National League, the team gets an extra day after the break to travel to Cincinnati to square off against the Reds. After a weekday series against the Mets, the only team in the National League that the Cards would yet to have played, the team again starts a stretch of 10 straight divisional games at Pittsburgh, and at home against the Astros and Cubs.  I would hope the team would take advantage of a somewhat weak schedule but the month ends with 13 in a row and including the first week of August, the Mets series signifies the beginning of 20-games-in-20-days.

3 @ TB (87.9-74.1)

3 vs CIN (87.2-74.8)

4 vs ARI (69.5-92.5)

All-Star Break

3 @ CIN (87.2-74.8)
Off
3 @ NYM (80.1-81.9)

3 @ PIT (66.6-95.4)

4 vs HOU (66.9-95.1)

3 vs CHC (75.8-86.2)

Divisional Games: 16 (10 home, 6 Road)

August

The month of August is dominated by Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals finally finish their 20 games in a row after road trips to Milwaukee and Florida. After a Monday off-day, the Cards welcome Milwaukee back to St. Louis. Following the Brewers is the Rockies. After the 6 game home stand, the team heads east to Pittsburgh for three, followed by a Thursday off-day. The weekend series is in Chicago. This is about the point in the season in 2010 where the wheels just came off. Needless to say, the team will have to be better, both in August and against teams they should beat to deserve a playoff spot. The Cards return home from Chicago to host the Dodgers for 3 and the Pirates for 4. The month closes with an off-day and a set against Milwaukee. 16 out 29 games in the month of August are vs the Brewers or Pirates. Of the 9 games against Milwaukee, 6 are in Wisconsin. Of the 7 games against the Pirates, 3 are at PNC Park. The difficulty of this month will depend almost entirely on how much Milwaukee is improved. If they are neck and neck with the Cards, Reds or whoever else is challenging for the NL Central, then this month could knock a team out of the race. If Milwaukee doesn’t improve enough to be a contender, this month could be the time for the Cards to either separate themselves from  the other contenders or catch up to the leaders. If the Cardinals are the ones who aren’t contending, for whatever reason, this could be an opportunity to play spoiler.

3 @ MIL (86.6-75.4)

4 @ FLA (79.3-82.7)
Off
3 vs MIL (86.6-75.4)

3 vs COL (83.4-78.6)

3 @ PIT (66.6-95.4)
Off
3 @ CHC (75.8-86.2)

3 vs LAD (82.2-79.8)

4 vs PIT (66.6-95.4)
Off
3 @ MIL (86.6-75.4)

Divisional Games: 19 (7 Home, 12 Road)

September

And down the stretch they come … 3 of the 4 2010 NL playoff teams make an appearance on the Cards schedule in the last month, just as 3 did in the first month. The other 2 projected NL Central contenders pay St. Louis one last visit. By now we’ll know whether or not a division championship is possible and these two series are likely to say a lot about if the Cardinals have what it takes. The challenges don’t end there though. Separated by a 3 game trip to Pittsburgh, the Cards host Atlanta for 3 and travel to Philadelphia for an odd 4 game series that runs Friday through Monday. The final home stand of the year welcomes rivals New York and Chicago. Schedule quirk number three has the team traveling to Minute Maid for the final series of the season, ending on Wednesday the 28th, likely a result of starting on a Thursday.  Obviously trying to figure how games will go in September in February is a fruitless exercise but if the projections are right, the wild card or Central division very well could be decided in the first 5 series of September.

3 vs CIN (87.2-74.8)

3 vs MIL (86.6-75.4)
Off
3 vs ATL (87.2-74.8)

3 @ PIT (66.6-95.4)
Off
4 @ PHI (93.7-68.3)

3 vs NYM (80.1-81.9)

3 vs CHC (75.8-86.2)

3 @ HOU (66.9-95.1)

Divisional Games: 15 (9 Home, 6 Road)