Anyone have any openings? No IDP please.

Hey Faketeamers ... I have at least one (probably two, however) openings in my 12 team Dynasty League. It's a pretty complex league with a financial structure and a deep set of rules that takes a little time to digest, but once you get the hang of it the league is amazingly fun. If interested, respond below or email: jack weiland at g mail dot com.

I woke up this morning (crazy, I know), logged on to one of my public leagues and was blown away when I saw the following transaction:

Choo, Shin-Soo RF CLE -Dropped

Excuse my French, but f*#@ the heck??? For real, player? Is this what it's come to? Dropping Shin-Soo Choo? Just outright cutting him? Ugh. Join me after the jump and we'll dig into this sad, sordid affair.

Let's be clear about something from the start: Choo has been terrible this season. Putrid. In 61 games he's got a .234/.316/..346 triple slash line, five home runs, 26 runs, 23 RBI and nine steals. It's safe to say owners who invested in him were hoping for quite a bit more than this. From 2008-2010 his lowest OBP was .394, his lowest ISO was .184. His lowest average was .300. The guy's a hitter.

It's been a tough season for him on and off the field. On the field? Poor performance. Off the field? This well-publicized DUI last month. So is his poor 2011 season explained away by luck? Or is there something more troubling at work: a change in approach, an injury, etc?

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This is a pivotal time for fantasy owners. We're just about a third of the way through the season, and we're at a point where early small sample sized starts have begun to fade and real, believable trends can be pulled from 2011's data. Let's take a look at three similar pitchers who all have one major difference: ownership rates.

One of these guys is owned in nearly every league in America. The other two are not. As I'll argue below, there isn't really a good reason for this (other than market inefficiency). So, here they are. Feel free to guess amongst yourselves at who they are before we hit the jump and my thrilling reveal:

Player A (26 years old): 5-3, 3.07 ERA, 6.26 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, owned in 94% of CBS leagues.

Player B (25 years old): 2-6, 3.88 ERA, 6.56 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, owned in 69% of CBS leagues.

Player C (29 years old): 1-3, 3.60 ERA, 7.06 K.9, 2.35 BB/9, owned in 51% of CBS leagues.

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Enterprising fantasy owners who made a low-cost investment in Aubrey Huff were rewarded handsomely last season. Coming off an abysmal .241/.310/.384 season split between Baltimore and Detroit, he made a career revival in San Francisco, swatting .290/.385/.506 for the eventual World Series champs. There were reasons to believe his poor 2009 was an outlier, and reasons to invest in him last year, especially considering how cheaply he went.

This season? Well, those who doubled down on Huff have had less than desirable results. They can probably best be summed like this: sdoifnweoi[f nhellw[ion wsibfwuibwsnapdragonsiubfe uiarbdiddlydarnitwepuie

He's hitting .211/.268./.367 this season, and he just doesn't look like the same guy he was a year ago. So what's his deal, anyway? Was 2010 Aubrey Huff the real deal? Are his early season struggles a harbinger of things to come? Does using the word harbinger make me sound like a butthole? Or is this just early season, smallish sample size hullaballo? As always, follow the jump for our thrilling(ish) conclusion.

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Today is Ryan Dempster's birthday. He's 34. He's slated to pitch for the Cubs against the Dodgers tonight, and he's about one more godawful outing from pushing his ERA for the season past TEN. Seriously. Coming off three straight sub-4 ERA seasons it's about the last thing anyone expected from the glove flippy guy.

So what the H is his deal, anyway? Is he bound to return to his 2008-2010 levels? Or is this the beginning of the end? More after the jump:

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Early season analysis is always a slippery slope for fantasy players. Read too much into a small sample size and you could cut a useful asset in exchange for a flash in the pan. Arrive too late to the party, though, and you face the same consequence: the awful stench of fantasy failure.

While small sample size caveats always apply at this stage of the game, it's still possible to look for trends. Everyone is searching for the next breakout star, the next Ben Zobrist or Jose Bautista. Jonny Gomes' early season pace of 54 home runs has skyrocketed his ownership among fantasy teams. He's now owned in 82 percent of CBS leagues, a full 45% jump from this time a week ago. Is his early season success for real? What he's doing and how he's doing it is very interesting (as if Jonny Gomes knew any other way). Let's jump in.

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Carlos Gonzalez hit a home run on Thursday, and while that's a great accomplishment, I wouldn't expect it to happen another 33 times like it did last season. Ray got me thinking the other day when he asked if we had confidence in Carlos Gonzalez.

My initial thought? Hell no!

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This just in: Alex Ovechkin is good at hockey.

Right? Crazy huh? Did I just drop some knowledge or what? Anyway, besides that Ovechkin guy ... this will be the first of 30 team reports leading up to the NHL's Opening Day, Oct. 7. I decided to box dudes up into different categories, which you will find below:

Ovechkins

Alexander Ovechkin, LW

Yeah. He's the man. He's the most electrifying player in the league and the first overall pick in all formats. Not much else needs to be said.

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Hey folks. With the season starting to ramp up, I'll be stepping up coverage here as well. If anything's keeping you up at night, fire away. I mean, if it's fantasy hockey related. I don't want to know the other stuff. You can post questions here or e-mail them directly to me at JackWeiland@gmail.com.

Today's question comes from PostmanMatt:

"I found out about Niemi signing with the Sharks a couple of days back and I was wondering how his signing affects the rank of Niittymaki and Niemi respectively."

Wisdom after the jump:

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First off: yes, I qualify as an expert. My mom and girlfriend and dog all agree that I am very smart and handsome. So there.

Second off: that was really all I had. I participated in an mock draft with the fine folks over at www.fantasyhockey.com recently. Below are my draft results and my thoughts about the draft, hockey and life in general. For more in depth coverage of this draft and other great info for your fantasy puck needs check out FH.com. Dudes can bring it.

A quick recap of the rules: Scoring categories were: goals, assists, +/-, penalty minutes, power play points, shots on goal, wins, goals against average, save percentage and shutouts. We start two centres, two left wings, two right wings, four defensemen and two goalies. Positions were determined using NHL.com. This is a 12-team snake draft. Yours truly selected 10th in the first round.

Follow the jump for the good stuff. I know you want it.

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I thought about leading this by blowing smoke up everyone's A about how Patrick Kane could lead you to your fantasy Cup and blah, blah, blah, but it really comes down to this, and only this:

I am a Blackhawks fan.

So there you have it. On to today's tiers, right wing.

OVERVIEW: It is my *expert* opinion that right wing is the hardest positon to fill. The top options have the lowest ceilings of elite players at any position, and the dropoff in the first few tiers is steep. There are very few safe bets, and very few easy calls. Almost every player has some question mark attached to them, and that's why it's probably best to roll with a couple of the Tier I or Tier II players here. You just honestly do not want to know what you're going to wake up next to otherwise. Down to business after the jump, but one last note before we begin: for position elligibility, I used NHL.com. Different sites might label players at different positions, particularly at winger, but for consistencies' sake I felt it was best and easiest to go with NHL.com. Obviously if your site (CBS, Yahoo!, etc.) lists a player at another position, you'll have to consider where they'd fit in there. You can always ask. ... I have no life am always happy to help.

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Tier ye, tier ye!!!!

(BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!)

Sorry. Once I thought of it I had to use it. Anyway, continuing to ...

(Hold on, am I fired?? ... No?! Wow.)

Continuing to, uh, roll these out. As I was saying.

OVERVIEW: Defense value is the most wide-ranging aspects of fantasy hockey, depending on league setup. No other position can be worth so much or so little depending on the rules of your particular league. In some leagues (generally ones with separate scoring modifiers for forwards and defense) top D can have every bit as much value as top forwards or top goalies. In other leagues (generally where the scoring is standard across all positions) they are not as integral to your fantasy glory. With that in mind, we can certainly piece out the different tiers among blueliners. Right to it after the jump:

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I hate lists for the following reasons:

1. They're dumb.

2. As many have stated before me, guys within one or two spots of each other are more or less interchangeable depending on which factors you value.

3. This is a list.

4. Wait, what was #3? This is ...

5. sdiofhsdiofnwe foiwne iowenw

Ahem. Sorry about that. Anyway I am here to announce that I'm going to change my format a bit here. Instead of continuing to roll out my rankings, I'll post the tiers Fangraphs style, with each of the dude's names and then a short blurb about said players before moving on to the next tier. If anyone dares question me has a differing opinion, I would be more than happy to debate these in the comments.

More or less, though, these are where guys should be drafted this fall. Onward! (After the jump, I mean.)
 

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Continuing to roll these out here.

6. Ilya Bryzgalov, Phoenix

2009-10: 42-20-8, 2.29, .920

08-09: 26-31-3, 2.98, .906

07-08: 28-25-3, 2.44, .920

The surprising Coyotes gave a nice boost to Bryzgalov's fantasy numbers last season, pushing him into the 40-win plateau. Expect some regression on that front, but Phoenix should win enough games to keep Bryzgalov near the mid-30s. His save percentage is among the best in the league and he's looking at another heavy workload in 2010-11.

 7. Tuukka Rask, Boston

2009-10: 22-12-5, 1.97 GAA, .931 save percentage

08-09: 1-0-1, 0.00, 1.00

07-08: 2-1-0, 3.26, .886

Let's be clear about one thing: if Tim Thomas had been traded this offseason, Rask would be much higher on this list. Unfortunately for the Finnish netminder (and his dynasty league owners) Thomas hasn't gone anywhere. In an admitted small sample size, the former 1st Round draft pick was simply dominant. It remains to be seen if he can continue that success with an increased workload, and there's always the presence of 2008-09 Vezina winner Tim Thomas to contend with. If Thomas moves on, Rask will rocket up this list. He has the potential to be the #1 fantasy goalie next year, but the question marks associated with drafting him temper that value. For now.

 8. Tomas Vokoun, Florida

2009-10: 23-28-7, 2.55 GAA, .925 save percentage

08-09: 26-23-6, 2.49, .926

07-08: 30-29-4, 2.68, .919

The biggest problem for Vokoun (and the same problem he's always had) is the team he plays for. Awful. Still, he's as good as anyone in the league in terms of save percentage, and that will keep his goals against among the top performers as well. Not many wins, which is a problem, but in the last year of his contact and with uber prospect Jacob Markstrom waiting in the wings it wouldn't be a shock to see Vokoun dealt to a contender at some point this year. If that happens, his value will increase dramatically. Even without that, his workload and talent will make him a useful fantasy asset again next season.

 9. Miikka Kiprusoff, Calgary

2009-10: 35-28-4, 2.31, .920

08-09: 45-24-4, 2.84, .903

07-08: 39-26-2, 2.69, .906

Which Kipper will we get? The resurgent Miikka from 09-10, or the diminished, seemingly overworked version from the previous two seasons? It's anybodies guess at this point, but the chance of Kiprusoff putting up a monster 35-win, low-2 GAA, .920 save percentage season is worth drafting at this point. He's a pick that could provide immense value or disappoint greatly. Gamblers, get ready to roll those dice.

 10. Craig Anderson, Colorado

2009-10: 38-25-7, 2.64, .917

08-09: 15-7-3, 2.71, .924

07-08: 8-6-2, 2.25, .935

Anderson's increased workload led to a very nice 2009-10 season, despite a second half dropoff. There's reason to believe he can perform even better in his second full season as the full-time starter, and he's going to get another heavy workload in Denver. He's not an elite fantasy option, but once those big names fly off the board he's a safe and undervalued target.

Boston University coach Jack Parker is often fond of saying that goalies are so important they should change the name of the sport from "hockey" to "goalie." While that's debatable, especially given the success of the 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks behind league-average net play, the axiom certainly applies to fantasy pucks.

So without further ado, let's look at some preliminary goalie rankings for the 2010-2011 fantasy hockey season. I'll start with 1-5 today, and eventually get through every Tom, Dick and Harry that will make a difference this year. Once complete (or as close to complete as I feel), I'll compile them into "tiers" and revisit throughout the year to get it right revise. Tonight, 1-5:

1. Ryan Miller, Buffalo

2009-10: 41-18-5, 2.22 GAA, .929 save percentage

08-09: 34-18-5, 2.53, .918

07-08: 36-27-3, 2.64, .906

The reigning Vezina Trophy winner is peaking right now. It'll be a tall order to improve upon last year's numbers, but Miller figures get another 70 starts in Buffalo. Playing for a good team and in front of a good defense led by Calder Trophy winner Tyler Myers he'll be a fantasy asset in wins, goals against, save percentage, shutouts, pretty much anything you could ever ask for. He's been the picture of health and stands very little chance of losing starts to anyone.

2. Martin Brodeur, New Jersey

2009-10: 45-25-9, 2.24 GAA, .916 save percentage

08-09: 19-9-5, 2.41, .916

07-08: 44-27-4, 2.17, .920

Dynasty leaguers might have made the mistake of writing Brodeur off once and for all after his injury riddled 2008-09 season. And seeing as he missed much of the year due to injury at age 36, it's understandible why they might have done so. That doesn't mean they (alright, I) were right, though. Brodeur gets this elite fantasy status until he either A) retires or B) Shows serious signs of slipping. The other front runners for this spot either have question marks in term of track record or in term of playing time. Brodeur probably won't finish as the second most valuable fantasy goalie, but the safety involved in picking him puts him above the others.

3. Jimmy Howard, Detroit

2009-10: 37-15-3, 2.26, .924

08-09: 0-1-0, 4.07, .857

07-08: 0-2-0, 2.13, .926

A 25-year-old rookie, Howard got a full-time chance in Detroit with Chris Osgood hurt and his exceptional play put an end to the Grand Rapids shuffle he'd been doing for the past two years. The save percentage, goals against and wins are phenomenal for just 53 starts, and it stands to reason the Wings will push Howard closer to 65-70 this year. He'll probably go lower than he should, and bigger names will go before him, but the former Maine Black Bear has real potential to be the most valuable fantasy goalie next year.

4. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers

2009-10: 35-27-4, 2.38 GAA, .921 save percentage

08-09: 38-25-3, 2.43, .916

07-08: 37-24-10, 2.23, .912

Lundqvist has been a 70-start horse for the past three seasons in New York, and he's posted consistently strong numbers during that time. Still on the right side of 30, there's no reason to think his string of 35-win, sub-2.50 GAA, .915-.920 seasons will stop this season, and he's among the safer picks in the entire draft.

5. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver

2009-10: 40-22-4, 2.57, .913

08-09: 33-13-9, 2.34, .920

07-08: 35-29-6, 2.38, .917

Luongo is the kind of compiler who is going to rack up starts and points for fantasy leaguers, while still leaving Canuck fans wanting more. At 31 he's got mild injury concerns and the fact that his save percentage has slipped recently is also troubling. He still figures (if healthy) to get his share of wins, make a good number of saves and keep the GAA around the mid-2s. He's dropping, but for now retains Top 5 fantasy status. There are cracks in the foundation, but at this point they're mostly cosmetic. Of the top five picks, he has the most room to fall and probably the least room to grow. Another injury or a disappointing season from the Canucks could seriously affect his value. I'd still draft him if he's around past the second round, but I certainly wouldn't reach for Luongo any sooner than those first four names are off the board, and I likely wouldn't take him over many of the boom-or-bust netminders that will make up spots 6-10 on this list.

By anecdotal measures, goalies Craig Anderson and Michael Leighton have had eerily similar careers.

Both were drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks (Anderson a third rounder in 2001, Leighton a sixth rounder in 1999) and from 2001-2003 they shared the same crease in Norfolk (then Chicago's AHL affiliate) and shared the franchise's future goaltending hopes. Neither panned out with the Hawks, and since then they've spent their careers bouncing from city to city, relegated mostly to backup status. They've spent seemingly as much time on the waiver wire (Anderson three times, Leighton five) as they have in the crease. And then last year, to the surprise of many, both emerged as useful (dare I say, quality?) NHL netminders.

There's just one difference: Anderson is good at hockey, and Leighton is not.

We'll deal with Anderson first, since he's the one fantasy leaguers should actually be interested in this fall. In the 09-10 season, at age 29, the Illinois native blossomed in his first full-time starting gig. He won 38 games for the surprising Avalanche, posting a .917 save percentage and 2.64 goals against average in the process. He tied for the third in the NHL with seven shutouts. From October through December he was often the topic of conversation as a "surprise" performer.

He shouldn't have been. Not to brag or anything (okay, that's a lie), but I nabbed Anderson in my dynasty league prior to last season for a very tidy sum and he finished the year as my second highest scoring player. Was his breakout the product of some newly developed skill? Coaching? Was it luck? Where should he go in drafts this year? What should owners expect? Those are the questions facing fantasy puckers this fall, and the answer is simple.

(Cliffhanger -- follow the jump to find out what that answer is!)

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