SB Nation User Blog: jacobstevens

Ruskell's Motivation, To Sando

jacobstevens — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:15:37 -0000

Ruskell's Motivation, To Sando

This can be spin, sure, but just makes more sense and makes me think he was still the right guy even more. A very good approach and helpful to the team even in departure, I appreciate that.

Back to Football: Decoding Garrett

jacobstevens — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:30:15 -0000

Season feels lost, dunnit? Well it probably is. We're more likely to get blown out -- much more likely -- than we are to pull an upset, in Dallas.

Still, I can conceive of the Cowboys playing down to our level, Romo being slightly sloppy, our run defense not letting their #1 DVOA running game assert Dallas' superiority right away, and their poor pass defense allowing us to move the ball when we put a TE AND a chipping back on either side of Big Mac against Ware all day. I'm not even being optimistic, I doubt it will come to this at all, but if it does, those are the elements that will conduct all hope of an upset.

So what else is there for us? Whence the last refuge of a scoundrel? While macro factors often dictate most of life and football, sometimes the devil is in the details, so let's just make a quick study of our next opponent.

Found via Football Outsiders, the weekly Football 301 series breaking down the Cowboys' previous game. They lit up the Falcons. Also allowed a lot of points. They harrassed Matt Ryan and that was probably what decided the game.

But this was an interesting read. Great breakdowns, but very light on conclusions. From the outside with little exposure, it looks like one of the leading guidelines of Jason Garrett is to use formations in situations to really strongly suggest a run or pass, a sweep or stretch when a run, and then either do the opposite or exactly as the formation is built for, attempting surprise defenses and then utilize the formation's advantage when they anticipate surprises. Not that that's very novel in today's NFL, but I'm not sure offenses are so heavily built around as what this suggests. Maybe it was just the matchup with Atlanta that made him lean like that.

Nevertheless, I'm not so sure there is much devil in these details. The plays highlighted ultimately look to stem from execution. The Austin TD must have been some kind of mistake in the secondary, but most of these plays don't look like the Falcons were tricked or even played poorly, but simply got beat at the point by speed or power.

So what does that mean for us? I don't think that's attacking our weaknesses. That's presuming their gameplan for us won't be substantially different. I think we've got speed on the edges. Especially the second level. We've got some power defense to work with.

I can see some frustration from Cole routinely losing his matchups on runs, though. I can see our pass rush not being good enough, though I do feel our secondary will be otherwise up to the task. Dunno why. And I can see Witten having a big day. I feel Austin will be contained.

I could see blitzes being effective, though. I feel their focus is and will be a lot more on what they're going to do offensively than what we will do. I would be surprised to learn that Wade Phillips had his team scout Leroy Hill's usage in prior years. They know we use Curry in pressure from the strong side and as a down lineman, and they know the same about Tapp, I'm positive.

Beyond that, they have a stout line, a run game that must always be respected, and they'll feel prepared. Without Lofa we lost some blitz effectiveness, but with gap discipline the way they appear to attack you I don't see a lot of fruit in playing mental chess against Garrett anyway. Hawthorne and Curry staying disciplined will go a long way in enabling the rest of the team to try to be competitive. If they use so many backs and multiple TEs, surely the hot routes will prevail more often than not against extra pressure, but sometimes you only need a few to work out, to turn into gamechanging plays. They've won more than once despite Bad Romo showing up, but compromising some TE production for the chances of blowing a few plays up seems to be to be the best approach to this matchup.

HOPE!!!

jacobstevens — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 06:34:56 -0000

HOPE!!!

and excuse.

Seattle currently leads the league in Adjusted Games Lost by starters due to injury, through week 6.

To be clear, this only counts games missed so far, not games known to be missed later (like Urlacher being on IR).

(For comparison, we were close but didn't lead the league, in 2008, although counting offense only we far transcended anything else ever tracked by the stat)

The hope? We're one of only 11 teams that don't have any impending AGL. Now, you and I know we won't get Walter, Locklear, Trufant, Tatupu, Hill and Sims back for Dallas. We know Lofa will be out, so come to think of it the impending thing is already wrong.

But it serves to illustrate, the injuries *are* enough to make a significant impact on performance. After two years it starts to feel artificial, and there's no reason to start thinking no one else will get injured during the final 10 weeks, but those flashes of a team we think really can be pretty good, is still in there somewhere, and there's still a chance that it comes out this year.

Wow, Black+Blue Report

jacobstevens — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 06:16:45 -0000

Wow, Black+Blue Report

This is about the most fascinating BnB report ever, and not just because of the Seahawks notes. The Harvin, Boldin, Jenkins, Samuels and Odom bits are very insightful to both football and the human body.

Tats may not be out for the season after all

jacobstevens — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:52:27 -0000

Tats may not be out for the season after all

Danny O'Neil twittering, too.

I'm beyond done with "Bittersweet Symphony." Awful choice from the start. We need a new song. ...

jacobstevens — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:05:26 -0000

I'm beyond done with "Bittersweet Symphony." Awful choice from the start. We need a new song. Who's with me?

Hurry Up! -- John, what are your thoughts?

jacobstevens — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 00:12:06 -0000

Hurry Up! -- John, what are your thoughts?

Danny O'Neil wrote a story about Seattle using a hurry-up offense. Or no huddle, at least. To be honest, I didn't even notice it. To what extent have we been using it? Has it been as effective as he makes it out to be? Can you break down the effects it is making? How have teams been responding? How do you think it suits our personnel?

Week 2 DVOA

jacobstevens — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 21:07:40 -0000

Week 2 DVOA

Seattle remains higher than most of us would probably anticipate. No opponent adjustments account for a good bit of that, though.

Reasons to live!

jacobstevens — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 17:14:53 -0000

Defense

None of this is adjusted for opponent, of course. Offense looks better than you might think, too. Hasselbeck, Jones, Spencer, Branch, Mebane, Tatupu, all have a good probability of returning before the bye. Trufant, Hill, Locklear, Wilson and Griffith realistically could return the for the Dallas game.

We should expect more injuries to come. For this many guys, it's far more likely that at least one will be bothered, ineffective, the rest of the way, or take 4 or 5 weeks longer to return than the timeframes we want to believe in. But they're not on IR. We weren't going 16-0 anyway. The health of this team might look dramatically better by this time next week as we prepare for a game that will be a lot easier to accept a loss from. Let's just focus on the Bears. We haven't lost yet, and we can still win this.

1994 DVOA Commentary

jacobstevens — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 18:05:03 -0000

1994 DVOA Commentary

Always look forward to when these come out. The most interesting part is the differential from top to bottom in DVOA and strength of schedule has gradually increased, from then til now. Schatz says seeing the trend, it's no surprise the first ever 16-0 and 0-16 teams happened these past two years, and then asked, why is this happening?

I already commented in the thread there, that I figure it has to be league expansion. When was the last significant league expansion, prior to 1996? The Seahawks and Bucs? I don't know the answer, but in 7 years the league expanded by 4 teams, and since then we've had two roster expansions (and Polian is lobbying for another). I can't think of anything that comes close to the significance of expansion, in the raw numbers of run-pass ratio, high draft pick busts, or anything else.