SB Nation User Blog: jalarsen1

From an Eagles fan:

jalarsen1 — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 19:34:47 -0000

From an Eagles fan:

For this week and next: GO REDSKINS!!!!!!!!!

Tested Mettle

jalarsen1 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:09:11 -0000

If I were to tell you in August that 13 games into the season we'd be 9-4 atop the NFC East, you would have thought that a real possibility. If I had told you that we had done it while:

Donovan McNabb missed 2 games.
Brian Westbrook missed 7
Shawn Andrews didn't even see the season and Justice started
Todd Herremans missed 5
Jason Peters missed one
Stacy Andrews missed 4, but only started 2
DeSean Jackson missed 1
Kevin Curtis only played 2
Corny Ingram didn't see the field
Stewart Bradley was placed on IR before week 1
Omar Gaither followed not long after
Joselio Hanson missed a month
Ellis Hobbs landed on IR after 8 games
Akeem Jordan missed 4

I want to put this in perspective, to show why we are a different class than the rest of our division; and I'll use the Cowboys who are the healthiest of the 4. Imagine (especially if you are a cowboys fan) playing 13 games while:

Tony Romo missed two
Marion Barber missed 7
Marc Colombo never made it to the field
Kyle Kosier missed 4
Flozell missed one
Leonard Davis missed 4, but was only healthy enough to start 2
Miles Austin missed one
Roy Williams only played two
Martellus Bennett was placed on IR before the season started
Bradie James was placed on IR before week one
Bobby Carpenter followed not long after
Scandrick missed a month
Alan Ball went on IR after 8 games
Anthony Spencer missed 4

The fact is, the Cowboys have no excuses. They should own this division with the injuries suffered by us, the Redskins, and to a lesser degree, the Giants. Our resiliency is what has made the 2009 Eagles AWESOME! No other team in our division would compete if they suffered the injuries we have. The Giants fell off the ship after losing Kenny Philips alone. The Redskins have amassed a ton of injuries, and have not found an answer. The Cowboys sit at an underwhelming 2nd place while being the healthiest. These Eagles really are something special.

EFF IT, we're winning anyway!

Avant, Weaver, Cole, Bradley, Mikell and our Salary Cap

jalarsen1 — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:02:12 -0000

As per PerrEagles post, I was curious myself how we looked regarding contracts and salary cap space. Here's what I found:

Players up after THIS year:

Jason Avant
Alex Smith
PJ Hill
Leonard Weaver
Max Jean-Gilles
Nick Cole
Omar Gaither
Chris Gocong
Akeem Jordan
Jeremiah Trotter
Tracy White
Sav Rocca
Sean Jones
Jason Babin
Antonio Dixon

Players up after 2010

Donovan McNabb
Kevin Kolb
Michael Vick
Brian Westbrook
Eldra Buckley
Victor Abiamiri
Stewart Bradley
Quintin Mikell
David Akers

******************************
Notes: From the first list, I think we can all agree that we need to sign Jason Avant, Leonard Weaver, Nick Cole, and Akeem Jordan to long-term contracts. Those guys have been great for us (even if it was just one year Lenny). I would personally like to see Babin, Tracy White, Gocong, Dixon, and Sean Jones brought back if the price were right. The rest I could take or leave...Alex Smith is depth, but not irreplaceable depth, same with Jean Gilles, and I would argue Omar Gaither. Trotter and Rocca can just go as far as I’m concerned. Seriously...we had a punt go 11 yards from our half of the field!

The next list gets very interesting, the biggest issue is the fact that we have no QB signed to play in 2011; and between this year and next Will Witherspoon is the only starting linebacker signed beyond 2010, and I’m including Bradley and Gaither as starters. We clearly need to lock either Donovan or Kevin up, decide what direction Westy’s life is going, and DEFINITELY extend Mikell and Bradley.

So where are we going to get the $$$ to keep the guys we need and sign new ones? Assuming there will be a new CBA, and a salary cap, here are some notes concerning the most expensive Eagles that we may not be getting good value from:
1. Brian Westbrook is going to cost just under $11M against the cap (assuming their is one) next year...is his health worth that kind of risk? He signed an extension in 2008, but the Eagles declined his bonus option for the last 3 years of his contract. This means that his salary in 2010 will be $7.25M with roughly $3M in LTBE incentives and other bonuses.
2. I really don’t see Michael Vick on this team next year. There’s $4.5M.
3. Kevin Curtis is going to cost just under $5M against the cap and we haven’t seen that dude in like a year and a half. He played 9 games in ’08, and only 2 so far this year.
4. Reggie Brown is going to cost $3M, but if we cut or trade him, his ridiculous bonus that has been prorated will be due immediately and cost an additional $3M of dead money.
5. Shawn Andrews will cost $3.5M...I’m not the only one thinking he’s gone.
6. Stacy Andrews’ salary next year is $3M...he also gets a $4.1M roster bonus should he ‘make the team’. Safe to say that if his issues don’t get figured out, there’s some money.
7. Darren Howard will make $3.5M next year with a $1M roster bonus. In 2011 that roster bonus jumps to $4M...also safe to say that if we bring Howard back in 2010, he won’t be here for that bonus in 2011.
8. Not that he’s going anywhere, but just as a note: Asante Samuel’s base salary in 2010 is about $10M (to give that perspective, Donovan’s is $12M, and Sheldon’s is $2.5M)
9. Because of the possibility of an uncapped year, Donovan’s contract renegotiation required that all of his guaranteed money from next year, be applied to this year’s salary cap. He cost $20.2M against the cap this year, but will only cost just over $5M next.

I think it’s clear that we have a lot of money locked up in a few guys that might be replaceable. Even with a cap, the Eagles will easily find themselves in a position to extend the guys we need, and bring in new talent.

(most contract info taken from www.eaglescap.com, though the site has not been updated with the Celek/Justice extensions)

How do you add a pic to a comment?

jalarsen1 — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 05:51:43 -0000

How do you add a pic to a comment?

If You Want to Argue McNabb; Here is some data

jalarsen1 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 03:32:47 -0000

McNabbs ’09 Performance:

No doubt the issue of McNabb is emotional, and the arguments can be intense. I hate emotional arguments because they go nowhere. I am posting McNabb’s situational stats simply so that the arguments can be more educated. Here is the data, analyze it and make your conclusion as you will:

Attempts:
1-10; he has a 99.6 rating
11-20; a 124.2 rating
21-30; a 53.1 rating
31+; a 53.1 rating

***McNabb has not thrown a TD pass this year beyond his 20th attempt.

By Half:
1st Half; 116.3 rating (9TDs-1INT)
2nd Half; 67.9 rating (1TD-2INTs)

By Quarter:
1st Q: 89.8
2nd Q: 132.3
3rd Q: 69
4th Q: 66.5
4th Q within 7 points: 62.5

***McNabb has NO 4th quarter TDs

Location:
Home: 118.7
Away 76.2

Point Situation:
Ahead: 112.7
Ahead by 1-8pts: 117.4
Ahead by 9-16pts: 149
Behind: 76.3
Tied: 82.1

***McNabb is completing only 50.8% of his passes when we’re behind.

***The larger the lead, the better he plays!

-To be fair, in ’08 his rating was 100.6 for attempts over 30, and 4th Quarter was his best with a 103 rating. He was still better with a lead than playing behind

-In ’07 he was best in passes 21-30...and consistent between halves. Slightly better when playing with the lead.

-Skipping ‘05-’06 for injuries

-In ’04 he was much better with a lead (103.8 vs 84.5); much better in the 1st half (124.5 vs 79.5); and much worse as he had to pass more.

***While I'm getting closer to the Kevin Kolb train, I am DEFINITELY on the "want to win" train. These stats alarm me because they don't seem to be the stats of a good QB.

Asante shutting down Cowboys on NFL.com

jalarsen1 — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 14:51:06 -0000

Asante shutting down Cowboys on NFL.com

Is Anyone Concerned...

jalarsen1 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:32:11 -0000

that Gocong is doubtful. I know there are few Gocong supporters, but I'm admittedly a little nervous about 220lb Fokou trying to shed a block and get to Marion or Felix.

I also had no idea that Bunkley was a question mark. Is this from the Giants game, or did something creep up in practice? Does it sound like he's gonna be able to go? Can Dixon/Laws own the line well enough, if he's unable to go?

Freakin injuries get me worried, and I'm anxious enough with the Cowboys coming to town.

Since we're all looking forward to it:

jalarsen1 — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:38:24 -0000

Here’s a look at our ridiculously competitive match-up:

Same record. Same home record. Same road record. Same conference record. Same # of TDs.

The Eagles have scored 6 more points than the Cowboys (203-197) through 7 games, and allowed 3 less (133-136). Folks, that’s about as even as it gets.

Both teams have beat up on weaker opponents, and both teams have lost to good opponents. Yes, the Eagles did lose to the hapless Raiders, but they also beat the Giants convincingly, who got the best of the ‘Boys. And let’s not pretend that Dallas’ victory over Kansas City was all that impressive (though it did seem to mark the emergence of Miles Austin as a HUGE threat). So, I’m not going to buy any argument about one team being better than another b/c of opponents.

Let’s talk defense. The Eagles are allowing just under 300 yards/game, with 103 coming on the ground (5 runs of 20+ yards, none over 40), and 194 through the air (17 plays of 20+ yards, and only 1 over 40). The key stat here, is that while the Birds have given up 11 passing TDs, they’ve picked off QBs 14 times and sacked him 21. 33% of 3rd downs have been completed against us.

The Cowboys are allowing just over 340 yards/game with 105 coming on the ground (4 runs of 20+ yards and none over 40), and just over 250 through the air (19 plays of 20+ yards, and 3 over 40) While allowing 12 TDs, they have only 4 INTs on the year and have sacked the QB 17 times. 35% of 3rd downs conversions are successful against their D.

On Offense: The Cowboys run for 148 yards/game while breaking 9 for over 20 yards, and 2 over 40. They average 263 yards/game through the air with 26 plays for over 20 yards and 8 over 40. They complete 60% of their passes and have 12TDs to 4 picks while allowing 13 sacks. They convert 41% of their 3rd down attempts.

The Eagles get just over 114 yards/game rushing while breaking only 5 over 20, but 3 over 40 yards. We gain just over 250 yards/game through the air with 23 plays over 20 yards, and 9 over 40. We complete 61% of our passes and have 13TDs to 4 picks (3 in one game by Kolb) while allowing 17 sacks. We convert 36% of our 3rd down attempts.

Both teams have been penalized 50 times, for over 400 yards.

The matchup looks awesome! The Cowboys gain more yards/game, but the Eagles allow fewer. The Eagles get to the QB more per game, but the Cowboys prevent it better. Both teams are capable of big plays and susceptible to them. If there’s one stat on paper that seems to tip the hat to one side, it would be the Bird’s ability to pick off the pass.

Keys to the Game: Between DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Barber, McCoy, Witten, Celek, Westbrook, and Felix, we can argue offensive weapons all day. Both teams are loaded.

The Eagles need to shut down Witten. Though he hasn’t been a huge part of the ‘Boys offensive attack, TEs are an historic problem for the Eagles, and Boss proved it again, even in our dominant win. The Bird’s secondary (Samuel, Mikell, Sheldon) should be able to contain Austin and the rest (and I know the Cowboy fans will disagree with that, and listen, I know anything can happen on Sunday. I’m just saying that our secondary is probably the best you’ve seen, well, maybe second to Denver), and we’ve been consistently good defending against the run.

The ‘Boys need to disrupt McNabb. He is streaky, and has been this year. He was not good against Oakland or Washington where he had pressure in his face, and he had to force a lot of passes which ended up in the dirt. We’ve not been successful in 3rd and long, and a couple McNabb bounce-passes, and that’s exactly where we’ll find ourselves.

It could obviously go either way, but I’m going to be a homer and give it to the Eagles at home 27-21.

Great Job!

jalarsen1 — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:09:12 -0000

We've spent the last couple weeks debating McNabb, offensive game planning etc...and had a great time doing it whether we agreed or not with each others' opinions. The debate was merited because well, we weren't performing well, or at least not consistently. I think I speak for everybody when I say, "If we can do again what we did against the Giants, there is no reason for debate!"

1st...McNabb was SPECTACULAR!!! The only pass that really looked off was a screen pass to the right over McCoy's head. McNabb was on FIRE, and I loved it!

2nd...Glad to have Herreman's back! Both Weaver's and McCoy's big runs came right off Herreman's ass. Great to see us running hard and between the Tackles!

3rd...Great protection for McNabb! Justice has played at a high level this whole year, and the fact that we didn't hear Justin Tuck's name at all (who was primarily lined up across Justice) is a testament to his improvement, and the fact that he's redeemed himself for the debacle two years ago.

4th...Sean Jones was EVERYWHERE on the field. Great job! Also Witherspoon, and really the whole defense. I'm impressed by this group!

Not another "fair weather" post

jalarsen1 — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:52:59 -0000

To Clarify from Northern Eagles post. McNabb critics were being called 'fair weather' and that deserves a consideration:

A fair weather fan is one who bails when the going gets tough. These are the people that give up on their team when they are losing. Most fair weather fans are casual fans. They know the all-star names on the team, and watch the game socially if they’re around friends.

The fact that any of us are even on here midweek talking Eagles is proof enough that we are, by and large, not casual fans. This fact alone says two things:

1. We are not fair weather. None of us are jumping ship and rooting for other teams. The Eagles are our team, even if they were to suck.
2. Our passion gives us the right to critique the team, and this has a further implication. It means we are all essentially ‘fair weather’ fans of particular players. We want what’s best for the team, regardless of what that means. If it means cutting Trotter, we do it. If it means signing him back, we do it. If it means benching McNabb half way through a game to light a fire under his ass, we do it. When Andy flip-flopped between Jordan and Gaither at Will last year, was he being “fair weather”? No. He was forming his opinion of what personnel package is best for the team.

I flip flop on McNabb, and I've been called out for it; but let's not pretend that consistency of opinion is a virtue in itself.