SB Nation User Blog: jason97673

Exactly what I was afraid of

jason97673 — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:01:35 -0000

I have yet to hear many people talk about what Ben did GOOD on sunday. He took only two sacks because he checked off for short passes probably 75% of the time.

And I remember making posts on here about why it is VERY BAD for him to try changing to the short pass stuff.

When you try throwing short quick passes, it requires perfection. If the WR and QB make even slightly different reads, INTs occur and the QB looks bad. Moreover a short passing game requires that the QB throw it to very narrow holes with very little margin for error. Sunday, the short passing game produced a very high completion rate but very little down field passing.

Why is it bad for him to try and do this short passing stuff and get the ball out quickly? You saw it. Getting the ball out quickly BEFORE you are ready is deadly and results in INTs. Holding onto the ball longer and making sure your going to get it where it needs to be is a recipe for success for Roethlisberger.

I prefer sacks over INTs. A sack does not lose a game, an INT does.

What would you prefer? 8 sacks, no picks or 3 INTs and 2 sacks?

The only disadvantage to this is, he gets banged up alot more.

So much for that "tough schedule"

jason97673 — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 10:03:31 -0000

Well, did things sure change. All off season, most people have talked about how hard our schedule is. Record wise, it was the toughest schedule in NFL History I believe.

Now, our schedule has gone from unbelievably tough to just average. Lets take a look at our supposed to be tough opponents and why some of these opponents are no longer "automatic losses" as some people like to claim.

Jacksonville: Garrard faded down the stretch last season once teams got more tape on him. Jacksonville's OLine is in trouble. Starting Guard Vince Manuwai out for the year, Maurice Williams out for 2 months, and Brad Meester possibly missing the first 4 weeks of the season makes it so there run game could be very average. Matchup = much easier.

New York Giants: Lost Strahan to retirement, lost Osi for the year. Thats 22 sacks they lost from last year. This matchup got alot easier. They still have a great DLine but have no depth that made there SB win possible. Matchup = much easier.

Indianapolis: Peyton Manning had no practice time through out Summer. As we saw week 1, he isnt ready to dominate like were used too. They lost Saturday who I believe is on the PUP list so he will not play the first 6 weeks of the season. We unfortunately play Indy week 10 so he could be healthy by then, but whos to say both he and Manning will be 100%? Not too mention this supposedly tough team got beat by the lowly Bears. Could still be tough since they could get healthy by time we play them.

San Diego: Got beat by Carolina. Starters Hardwick, McNeil, Merriman, and Gates are all injured. Gates and Merriman played but are probably not 100%.Merriman wont be 100% for the full year. This could still be a tough matchup.

New England: Obviously with Brady being out, I can see us easily beating New England. I doubt Cassel is as great at spreading the field and throwing underneath like Brady which in my opinion is the only way NE can beat us. There Defense now has a lot of pressure since they wont be up by 5 touchdowns like last year. There secondary has gotten worse. There starting corners are Ellis Hobbs and Lewis Sanders, hardly great players. Matchup = much easier.

Dallas: This is the only team I believe on our schedule that is completely healthy, thus it should be the toughest game on our schedule.

Clevekand: Anderson, and Edwards played very little in pre season due to injuries. They are not 100%. Cribbs is banged up, Stallworth is getting an MRI done. They appear to have a lot of minor injuries. Jurevicious is on the PUP I believe so he will be inactive for week 2.

Didnt include Philly or Tennessee. There is a lot of hype over philly for some reason, but I dont see it.

All of these injuries are the perfect example and reason why there is no such thing as a tough schedule when looking at it before the games are played. It has been one week and teams all over the place are injured and beat up.

Justin Hartwig vs Sean Mahan = No Contest

jason97673 — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:59:17 -0000

Well as training camp continues, the center position on the OLine SHOULD have been decided at the end of last year. And the starting center should be anyone but Mahan.

Take a look at how Sean Mahan performed against DTs and NTs last season.

The following article indicates that statistically the opposing DT or NT had there "best game of the season" against Mahan.

As the article says Warning: Sean Mahan was actually MUCH worse than you even thought……

http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=2567

Ouch

Football Outsider Notes

jason97673 — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:04:45 -0000

Football Outsiders has some very nice stats. And I picked up a copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 the other day and read through alot of our Steelers players.

And I found some quite interesting things I think you could find interesting.

I am still not entirely sure what alot of you think of the way they do there special rankings or if you put a lot of stock into them but this is what I found interesting:

-Nate Washington, in 2006(his first year as an every week player) ranked 4th in DVOA(Defesense -Adjusted Value Over Average) and 15th in DYAR(Defense-Adjusted Points above replacement). Last year ranked 15th in DVOA and 40th in DYAR. Pretty good for a 3rd WR who a lot of people think should be cut.

-Santonio Holmes, in 2006(rookie year) ranked 5th in DVOA and 9th in DYAR. Unbelievable for a rookie. Last year ranked 6th in DVOA and 11th in DYAR. Also 19% of the passes intended for him were deep passes(26+ yards).

-Roethlisberger had to scramble on 15% of pass plays, more than any QB and more than twice the league average of 7%. Also was the most hurried QB in the league but also the best QB in the league when hurried with a 36.9% DVOA. What does this say?

-Roethlisberger last year ranked 11th in DYAR which was worse then Hasselbeck, Cutler, and Anderson. He ranked 13th in DVOA. How can he have a 104 rating and constantly be put in 3rd and longs and convert yet be ranked behind Derek Anderson who barely completed only 56% of his passes and threw 19 ints and behind many others whos seasons werent half as good as his?

-Steelers had the greatest discrepancy between their offensive efficiency in the shotgun(41% DVOA) and with the QB under center (-3.4% DVOA).

-We have the slowest Offensive Pace

-Last year, they had the largest yardage discrepancy of any team that was better without play action.

-Last year, the defense allowed the lowest YAC. Reason being the Steelers opponents threw to there Running Backs less often then any team in the NFL.

-Keisel had the lowest stop% on the DL at 70%. The highest was actually hard to believe, Travis Kirschke at 88%, which also ranked 3rd in the entire NFL. Opposing teams averaged 2.1 YPC running at him though. Keisel averaged 2.9, while Hampton was 1.5 and Smith was 1.7.

Let me know what you think of these type of numbers and if you think they mean a good amount. I can probaly add more numbers later.

Roethlisberger Sack Video

jason97673 — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 16:03:01 -0000

Over at Steelerfury.com, one of there writers created a video of all of Roethlisbergers sacks

Take a look:

http://s37.photobucket.com/albums/e62/hnbctb/?action=view&current=sacks3.flv

Watching this is simply amazing. By watching this video, you can see just how bad our line is and Ben in fact should take NO blame for holding the ball too long. If the only criticism of him is holding the ball too long, then he is very good.

Just thought it would be nice to see all of his sacks in one video.

What is an NFL Draft bust?

jason97673 — Wed, 07 May 2008 21:39:05 -0000

I here people talking about how Timmons is already a bust, how if he doesn't start this year he should be qualified as a bust. This is insane. I personally think it is bias against that particular player to call them a bust when they are 21 years old.

I will give a few examples of what a true NFL Draft bust is.

Most players enter the NFL ranging from 20 to 24 years old. Few players enter at 25 or older.

The age is very important, especially for first round picks. I will start off with Timmons. He was drafted at age 20, and was 21 for the entire 2007 season. He will be 22 in 1 week.

I believe it is always better to draft younger player because they have the potential to have a longer career. Not sure of the exact age of players who retire but lets say most LBers retire at 34.

Timmons would have 13 years in the NFL. If his first year as a starter is his third year, he will be a starter for 10 years. Lets say he gets drafted at age 24. He could play 10 years, and 7 as a starter. His first year as a starter will be age 27. He will have 3 years until he reaches "That age" of 30 years old where players decline. As of now, if Timmons does not start till next year, he will be 23 when he makes his first start. He has 7 years of playing time before reaching "that age". And 7 years starting is a very long time period to establish yourself, before declining after age 30.

Basically the point is, players who are younger like Timmons can afford to sit for a few years without being called a bust simply because they were so young and still have many years left. If he was 24, it would be extremely important that he starts by his second year at the latest.

Rashard Mendenhall: I love this pick even more because he, like Timmons, was only 20 when drafted. He will be 21 in June. He will probably be sitting behind Parker for a few years. If he was drafted at age 24, he might not get to start until age 27. And for a Running Back, that is a very bad age to begin starting. Think of Larry Johnson. Drafted at age 24, didn't start until age 26, and now he is 29 years old. He had a very promising career but was drafted at an older age and then sat for 2 years. Now he only has one year before he hits 30, and is already beginning to become injury prone(like last year).

So let me explain what a true bust is:

Ryan Leaf: Started his first game at 22 years old in 1998. Missed the next year, and started 9 games in the NFL in 2000, then finished his career in 01, where he started 3 games, then out of the NFL.

Akili Smith: Started 4 games his rookie year at age 24. Over the next 3 years he started 13 games, then was out of the NFL.

These are the two main examples of true busts.

Lets say a player is drafted in the 1st round and does basically nothing his first 5 years in the NFL. Then comes in during his 6th year and sets the league on fire for a few years. Would you classify him as a bust? I wouldn't because he still had a great career, just started off slow.

Example - James Farrior: Drafted 8th overall in 1997. Started 15 games his rookie year but his numbers were not all that great. He was a OLB at that point and recorded only 1.5 sacks his first year.His next 3 seasons, he started only 12 games and recorded 3 sacks total. In 2001, his last year with the Jets he turned around and started every game while getting 145 tackles, 3 FF and 2 INTs. He then came to the Steelers(6 years so far) and has been to the pro bowl and has been very good with us. Would you consider him a bust?

In short, a bust is someone who never accomplishes anything in the NFL, and is a very bad player.

Calling a guy a bust when he is just turning 22, because he hasn't seen the field at all because the two guys in front of him are solid-good(Foote, Farrior) is really foolish.

In my opinion you need to wait until he gets on the field as a starter. However, if he never becomes a starter then he would obviously become a bust(Example - Alonzo Jackson).

Another example could be Kellen Winslow. Some say if Timmons doesn't start this year, he is a bust. By that definition, then Winslow, one of the best TE's in the game should be considered a bust since he only played two games his first two years in the league. Of course he was injured those years, but that would be besides the point.

I personally believe some people just like throwing the word bust out there just because they don't think he was a good pick or just don't like him, without any real sense of what it actually means.

So what are your definitions of busts?

Steelers Historically..and More

jason97673 — Thu, 01 May 2008 00:41:38 -0000

Bumped. Good stuff Jason. - Blitz-

This is my latest article that includes a bunch of random thoughts and statements. I have our historic ranks on both Defense and Offense, to prove that our team is always in pretty good shape.

Some say our Defense "Isn't what it used to be" right after we finished number one in yards allowed and number 2 in points. Our defense collapsed down the stretch for one reason - Athleticism. Our Linebackers, the core of the 3-4 are SLOW. If we had faster Linebackers we would have beaten the Jags in the playoff game. Scrambling/mobile Quarterbacks will always haunt us unless we add athleticism and speed to our Linebacker Corps.

Our Pass Defense, believe it or not, is very good. We had the best Completion % (54.5), and the best YPA (5.3). We acheived these ranks while having an average pass rush. That is really impressive. Outside of Taylor and Polamalu, we do not have anyone else that is really good.

Continuing, we do have one hole on our team, the Offensive Line. Our Defensive Line depth is becoming a problem, but our DLine is still a strength. Our great run stopping ability has a lot more to do with our Linebackers and DLine taking the right angles, then it does pure run stuffing strength. If one of our DLineman get injured again, I am confident our Run D will still be rather good. The playoff loss to Jacksonville proves that. Our personnel that day was the same for the previous few weeks, but somehow we shut the jags run game down. Our players were being smarter that day and not over pursuing.

Our Linebackers will become a strength this year with Woodley taking over for Haggans. Woodley is not fast, but he is much stronger and bigger then Haggans making him harder to block.

Timmons - The key to our defense this year. If we want to be a great team in the clutch , something that we were bad at last year, this guy needs to see the field. He is fast, and will be great in coverage and our ILB blitzes that cross in the middle will be much more effective if we have a fast linebacker.

Bruce Davis - Think Woodley last year. He probably will not have as many sacks(4) as Woodley last year, but I think he will come through with a big one somewhere as long as he gets playing time.

As the title suggests, I am going to take a look at some of the Steelers historic ranks both defensively and offensively.

Defense - Since 1970

22 times in the top 10 in Points Allowed
2 times ranking 20th or above in Points Allowed
25 times in the top 10 in Yards Allowed
3 times ranking 20th or above in Yards Allowed

Offense - Since 1970

19 times in the top 10 in Points Scored
5 times ranking 20th or above in Points Scored
16 times in the top 10 in Yards
10 times ranking 20th or above in Yards

*Keep in mind, most of our bad Ranks came in the 80's.

Obviously we are a defensive team so our D ranks will be better. However, our offense is just as potent. Only reason our O ranks aren't as good is because it is easier to score by throwing the ball, and we are primarily a running team.

The point of displaying our historic ranks is the fact that our front office knows what they are doing. We are consistently a playoff team and Super Bowl contender. When was the last time you went into a season not expecting to get atleast 8 wins?

Here are some more facts concerning our Offensive Line

First 8 weeks of the season, Ben was sacked only 19 times. The second 8 weeks, Ben was sacked 31 times(This includes the playoff game since Ben didn't play the season Finale)

New England, a very good team had only 3 sacks. They are a very good scheming team and tough opponent, but only recorded 3 sacks compared to the Jets and the Dolphins, two of the worst teams, who recorded the highest sack totals against us.

By looking at our sack totals in every game, there is clearly no certain scheme(3-4 or 4-3), or strength of opponent that gives us trouble.

Also, I have not seen a lot of people talk about this: Remember how in training camp, Tomlin was really pushing our guys much more than Cowher ever did? Maybe that is why we had injuries down the stretch and faded record wise. Cowher didn't push our guys as much, and that is why we always started off slower then got on fire much later in the season into the playoffs. I would like to see Tomlin refer back to what Cowher did and not push the players as much.

I will always be optimistic about the Steelers chances because this team has a proven track record. Even with a horrible Offensive Line, we still went 10-6. Out of the 13 teams with the highest sack totals, the Steelers were the only team to make the playoffs.

In 2006, we were ranked 27th in turnover differential, and still went 8-8. We were ranked near Oakland(2-14), Cleveland(4-12), Tampa Bay(4-12), Detroit(3-13), Seattle(9-7), Washington(5-11), Carolina(8-8).

As you can see, the Steelers were very good for how often they turned the ball over in 2006. Most teams who turn the ball over this much range around 4-12. Only the Seahawks, and Panthers were pretty good for turning the ball over a lot.

At the end of the day I know the Steelers will still be in the playoff picture into late December, no matter how bad our Offensive Line is.

Bob Sanders

jason97673 — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 00:04:03 -0000

This is more of a rant, but has statistical truth to it.

Ive seen alot of people talk about how Bob Sanders is the best Safety in the league. He also won Defensive Player of the year last year I believe.

Anyway his numbers for a safety are not what you would expect from a DPOY. I picture a DPOY getting 8-10 interceptions, 15 sacks etc. A guy like Cromartie who had 10 INTs last year. I'm a strong believe that without Cromartie, SD might not have made the playoffs last year.

Numbers don't always tell the whole story but for awards they usually do. Brady got the MVP cause of his numbers. Manning had the MVP in years past cause of his numbers etc.

Also, alot of people over look forced fumbles. FF are big plays, they can even be better than Interceptions.

I will also compare our very own Troy Polamalu with Sanders.

Just a quick analysis: Last year Sanders had two INTs, 0 Forced Fumbles, and 6 Pass Deflections, along with 97 tackles. But for DBs the tackle stat doesn't mean much.

Sanders: Has played seasons of 6, 14, 4, and 15 games. This past year was the first year he ever recorded a sack. He has had 2 FF in 39 games, and the most Pass Deflections he has had was 6 last year. A total of 13 for his career. Also, someone can correct me if Im wrong, but I believe the Colts play there Safeties very deep, hence never giving up big pass plays. This means Sanders should have much more PD and INTs, but he does not.

Polomalu: Has Played a full season 3 times, and played 13 and 11 games the past two years. Has had 1 FF in each of his first 4 years. And 3 FF this past year. Has had 5 INTs in 2004, 2 in 2005, and 3 in 2006. The least amount of Pass Deflections he has had was 4, in his rookie year where he was a backup. Had more than 8 in every year, and even hit 14 in 2004. That year alone was more then Sanders entire Career. Lastly, Troy had between 1 and 3 sacks in every year but this past year.

Quarterback Peak Years

jason97673 — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 05:56:17 -0000

Quarterbacks Peak Years As was requested on here, I will take a look at some HOF QBs and QBs still playing and try to find a range of ages that Quarterbacks usually hit there peak. This will primarily be statistical analysis using Rating numbers as well as other numbers.

I will look at:

Montana
Marino
Young
Brady
Manning
Elway
Favre

Joe Montana:

-Widely recognized as the greatest ever. Never threw more than 4000 yards and threw more than 30 Touchdowns only once. Had a rating of 100+ 3 times in his career at ages 28, 31, and 33. However his playoff success at ages 32-34 was unmatched through out NFL history posting a rating of 100 or more in 8 consecutive playoff games. During this period, he threw 22 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.

Peak years: 32-34

Marino:

-First two years in the NFL were better than any other QB's first two in NFL history. Rookie year he posted a record 96 rating for a rookie while starting 9 games. His next year was even more record breaking while setting an all time record for highest rating in a single season of 108, he also threw 48 touchdowns, and 5084 yards.

-Best playoff game ever was the AFCCG against the Steelers in 1985. At age 23, he had a 135 rating for the game while throwing for 421 yards on only 32 attempts.

-After age 25, he only threw for 30 touchdowns once while throwing 4000 yards 3 more times.

Peak year: 23

Peyton Manning

-Started for the Colts right out of the gate on a horrible Colts team. He became the best Pure Passer in the NFL in 2003 at age 27 where he recorded a 99 Rating. When its all said and done his next 3 years will be considered his peak. From 2004-2006(Ages 28-30), he lead the league in rating each year with 121, 104, and 101.

-He clearly could still be in his peak, however his numbers have dropped every year since 2004, signaling the end of his peak years.

Peak Years: Ages 28-30

Brett Favre

-The recently retired Brett Favre peaked at an early age. First 3 years(Ages 22-24) in the NFL, threw 37 touchdowns and 37 interceptions(Did not play first year).

-Next 3 years at ages 25-28, he threw a combined 145 touchdowns to only 56 interceptions posting ratings of 90, 95, 99 and 92. This would prove to be his peak years.

-Won one superbowl at age 27. This playoff series he had a rating of 107 in each of his 3 games.

-Also went to 3 Pro Bowls in consecutive years between ages 32 and 34, another great stretch.

Peak Years: Ages 25-28

Steve Young

-Steve Young had a weird situation. He was playing behind HOF QB Joe Montana from 1987-to 1990, but at the same time his first 6 years he still got some good playing time to prepare him for when Montana left. However it wasn't until 1992 where he took over full time. He was already 31 years old. His first 4 years as starter(Ages 30-33), he had ratings of 101, 107, 101, and 112(Previous Record). This would prove to be his peak years.

-As a side note, if you extend farther, Young's next 4 years were almost as outstanding, having Ratings of 92, 97, 104 and 101.

-Also went to many playoff games. Best game in the playoffs came in his only superbowl against the Chargers where he had a rating of 134 and threw 6 touchdowns to no interceptions. This was at age 33.

-Should also note, he started 14 games in his second year in the NFL for Tampa Bay where he was horrible, throwing 8 touchdowns and 13 interceptions for a 65 rating.

Peak Years: Ages 30-33

Tom Brady

--The 3 time Superbowl champion up until this past year clearly has no peak. His numbers were average to good throughout his whole career. He has had no bad years or no off the chart years. Ratings up until last year were 86, 85, 85, 92, 92, and 87. As you can see, very consistant.

-Has never thrown more than 14 interceptions in a year while (Before this year)never throwing more than 30 touchdowns. Also had a YPA above 7 only twice in his first 7 years.

-With last years 50 touchdown display, I believe he is just entering his peak. With Randy Moss, I expect him to hit 40 touchdowns next year with another 100+ rating. When Moss leaves, his peak will probably end and return to where he was before Moss arrived. A very safe and consistent QB without huge numbers. He entered last year at age 30.

Peak Years: Age 30-?

Elway

-Has a completely different story. He was not a very good passer until his last 4 years in the league where he won back to back super bowls. Some interesting numbers - Only threw more than 20 touchdowns once in his first ten years. Never threw 4000 yards until his 11th year(Age 33), which was his only 4000 yard season. Highest rating was 83 until his 11th season

-Peaked in his 11th season at age 33. The next 6 years(Age 33-38) he threw 20 touchdowns in every year but one. During his peak, he also never threw more than 14 interceptions while posting ratings between 85 and 92 every year.

Peak Years: Ages 33-38

As you can see of these Quarterbacks, there are many different ranges for peak years. Favre and Marino were better early on while Montana, Young, especially Elway, and (now) Brady had better numbers at an older age. Manning is in the middle as he peaked late 20s.

As a side note, I only did QBs since 1980 as the passing game has transformed into much higher ratings and touchdowns.

Does Ben Roethlisberger Really Hold the Ball too Long?

jason97673 — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 23:54:31 -0000

New reader jason97673 offers up his second analytical look at Big Ben vs. the rest of NFL QB crop. Check out his first thought-provking entry here. Though the data he offers below certainly calls into quesiton some of the preconceptions many of us hold about Roethlisberger and his procilivites in the pocket, I don't think the data is quite that black and white. Another fine offering though from BTSC's newest contributor. I look forward to some of the comments and questions, and I plan on asking several myself about what exactly these numbers may mean and how they should be interpreted.

-Blitz-

..Or does it just appear that way?

I know a lot of people think he should throw the ball away more. And sometimes he should, but statistically Roethlisberger throws the ball away more than most QBs.

A lot of times we're screaming at the T.V for Ben to get rid of the ball quicker right? Well, I guess you could say he either does need to get rid of it quicker or throw it away.

I agree with the getting rid of it quicker argument. But there could be a bad side of getting rid of it quicker(more later). However, others use the "Throw it away argument" which in my opinion is ridiculous. I believe it only looks like Ben holds onto the ball too long because two seconds after the snap, there is already someone in his face and he needs to start running.

Point is, we don't want our Quarterback to change in this area. Many of his big plays have come from holding onto the ball and not throwing it away.

Palmer was sacked only 17 times last year which would indicate he has a great OLine. However, after reading their boards, and forums, it seems as if there OLine is really bad, but his sack numbers were one of the best in the NFL. I am assuming since I have not watched many cincy games except against the Steelers, that he faces a lot of pressure, but gets rid of quickly to avoid the sack.

In turn, what happened? He tossed 20 interceptions and had I believe 8 or 9 returned for touchdowns.

So the question is, would you rather have Roethlisberger take a sack, or get rid of it quickly when hes not ready and possibly throw an interception? You can overcome sacks, but you can not always overcome interceptions. If you get sacked, unless on third down, you still have another shot for the first. Interception? That drives over. Not too mention, Roethlisberger is unbelievable on third down.

Now, the point of the post. According to sports illustrated, these are the total "Intentional Throw Away Passes" and total attempts which gives you how often he throws a pass away. (Only using last years numbers)

Brady - 16/578 - Every 36 passes
Palmer - 8/575 - Every 71 passes
Roethlisberger - 11/404 - Every 36 passes
Rivers - 24/460 - Every 19 passes
Brees - 14/652 - Every 46 passes
Romo - 2/520 - Every 260 passes
Manning - 13/515 - Every 39 passes

As you can see, he throws the ball away enough. Out of the QBs I looked at, only Rivers throws the ball away more. And is way above other QBs like Palmer, and Romo. Even Favre who is not shown here, threw it away only 3 times last year.

The idea of him getting rid of quicker is a legitimate possibility, but as I displayed with Palmer, it could have consequences.