SB Nation Blog: jason97673

What is an NFL Draft bust?

jason97673 — Wed, 07 May 2008 21:39:05 -0000

I here people talking about how Timmons is already a bust, how if he doesn't start this year he should be qualified as a bust. This is insane. I personally think it is bias against that particular player to call them a bust when they are 21 years old.

I will give a few examples of what a true NFL Draft bust is.

Steelers Historically..and More

jason97673 — Thu, 01 May 2008 00:41:38 -0000

Bumped. Good stuff Jason. - Blitz-

This is my latest article that includes a bunch of random thoughts and statements. I have our historic ranks on both Defense and Offense, to prove that our team is always in pretty good shape.

Some say our Defense "Isn't what it used to be" right after we finished number one in yards allowed and number 2 in points. Our defense collapsed down the stretch for one reason - Athleticism. Our Linebackers, the core of the 3-4 are SLOW. If we had faster Linebackers we would have beaten the Jags in the playoff game. Scrambling/mobile Quarterbacks will always haunt us unless we add athleticism and speed to our Linebacker Corps.

Our Pass Defense, believe it or not, is very good. We had the best Completion % (54.5), and the best YPA (5.3). We acheived these ranks while having an average pass rush. That is really impressive. Outside of Taylor and Polamalu, we do not have anyone else that is really good.

Continuing, we do have one hole on our team, the Offensive Line. Our Defensive Line depth is becoming a problem, but our DLine is still a strength. Our great run stopping ability has a lot more to do with our Linebackers and DLine taking the right angles, then it does pure run stuffing strength. If one of our DLineman get injured again, I am confident our Run D will still be rather good. The playoff loss to Jacksonville proves that. Our personnel that day was the same for the previous few weeks, but somehow we shut the jags run game down. Our players were being smarter that day and not over pursuing.

Our Linebackers will become a strength this year with Woodley taking over for Haggans. Woodley is not fast, but he is much stronger and bigger then Haggans making him harder to block.

Timmons - The key to our defense this year. If we want to be a great team in the clutch , something that we were bad at last year, this guy needs to see the field. He is fast, and will be great in coverage and our ILB blitzes that cross in the middle will be much more effective if we have a fast linebacker.

Bruce Davis - Think Woodley last year. He probably will not have as many sacks(4) as Woodley last year, but I think he will come through with a big one somewhere as long as he gets playing time.

As the title suggests, I am going to take a look at some of the Steelers historic ranks both defensively and offensively.

Defense - Since 1970

22 times in the top 10 in Points Allowed
2 times ranking 20th or above in Points Allowed
25 times in the top 10 in Yards Allowed
3 times ranking 20th or above in Yards Allowed

Offense - Since 1970

19 times in the top 10 in Points Scored
5 times ranking 20th or above in Points Scored
16 times in the top 10 in Yards
10 times ranking 20th or above in Yards

*Keep in mind, most of our bad Ranks came in the 80's.

Obviously we are a defensive team so our D ranks will be better. However, our offense is just as potent. Only reason our O ranks aren't as good is because it is easier to score by throwing the ball, and we are primarily a running team.

The point of displaying our historic ranks is the fact that our front office knows what they are doing. We are consistently a playoff team and Super Bowl contender. When was the last time you went into a season not expecting to get atleast 8 wins?

Here are some more facts concerning our Offensive Line

First 8 weeks of the season, Ben was sacked only 19 times. The second 8 weeks, Ben was sacked 31 times(This includes the playoff game since Ben didn't play the season Finale)

New England, a very good team had only 3 sacks. They are a very good scheming team and tough opponent, but only recorded 3 sacks compared to the Jets and the Dolphins, two of the worst teams, who recorded the highest sack totals against us.

By looking at our sack totals in every game, there is clearly no certain scheme(3-4 or 4-3), or strength of opponent that gives us trouble.

Also, I have not seen a lot of people talk about this: Remember how in training camp, Tomlin was really pushing our guys much more than Cowher ever did? Maybe that is why we had injuries down the stretch and faded record wise. Cowher didn't push our guys as much, and that is why we always started off slower then got on fire much later in the season into the playoffs. I would like to see Tomlin refer back to what Cowher did and not push the players as much.

I will always be optimistic about the Steelers chances because this team has a proven track record. Even with a horrible Offensive Line, we still went 10-6. Out of the 13 teams with the highest sack totals, the Steelers were the only team to make the playoffs.

In 2006, we were ranked 27th in turnover differential, and still went 8-8. We were ranked near Oakland(2-14), Cleveland(4-12), Tampa Bay(4-12), Detroit(3-13), Seattle(9-7), Washington(5-11), Carolina(8-8).

As you can see, the Steelers were very good for how often they turned the ball over in 2006. Most teams who turn the ball over this much range around 4-12. Only the Seahawks, and Panthers were pretty good for turning the ball over a lot.

At the end of the day I know the Steelers will still be in the playoff picture into late December, no matter how bad our Offensive Line is.

Bob Sanders

jason97673 — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 00:04:03 -0000

This is more of a rant, but has statistical truth to it.

Ive seen alot of people talk about how Bob Sanders is the best Safety in the league. He also won Defensive Player of the year last year I believe.

Anyway his numbers for a safety are not what you would expect from a DPOY. I picture a DPOY getting 8-10 interceptions, 15 sacks etc. A guy like Cromartie who had 10 INTs last year. I'm a strong believe that without Cromartie, SD might not have made the playoffs last year.

Numbers don't always tell the whole story but for awards they usually do. Brady got the MVP cause of his numbers. Manning had the MVP in years past cause of his numbers etc.

Also, alot of people over look forced fumbles. FF are big plays, they can even be better than Interceptions.

I will also compare our very own Troy Polamalu with Sanders.

Just a quick analysis: Last year Sanders had two INTs, 0 Forced Fumbles, and 6 Pass Deflections, along with 97 tackles. But for DBs the tackle stat doesn't mean much.

Sanders: Has played seasons of 6, 14, 4, and 15 games. This past year was the first year he ever recorded a sack. He has had 2 FF in 39 games, and the most Pass Deflections he has had was 6 last year. A total of 13 for his career. Also, someone can correct me if Im wrong, but I believe the Colts play there Safeties very deep, hence never giving up big pass plays. This means Sanders should have much more PD and INTs, but he does not.

Polomalu: Has Played a full season 3 times, and played 13 and 11 games the past two years. Has had 1 FF in each of his first 4 years. And 3 FF this past year. Has had 5 INTs in 2004, 2 in 2005, and 3 in 2006. The least amount of Pass Deflections he has had was 4, in his rookie year where he was a backup. Had more than 8 in every year, and even hit 14 in 2004. That year alone was more then Sanders entire Career. Lastly, Troy had between 1 and 3 sacks in every year but this past year.

Quarterback Peak Years

jason97673 — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 05:56:17 -0000

Quarterbacks Peak Years As was requested on here, I will take a look at some HOF QBs and QBs still playing and try to find a range of ages that Quarterbacks usually hit there peak. This will primarily be statistical analysis using Rating numbers as well as other numbers.

I will look at:

Montana
Marino
Young
Brady
Manning
Elway
Favre

Does Ben Roethlisberger Really Hold the Ball too Long?

jason97673 — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 23:54:31 -0000

New reader jason97673 offers up his second analytical look at Big Ben vs. the rest of NFL QB crop. Check out his first thought-provking entry here. Though the data he offers below certainly calls into quesiton some of the preconceptions many of us hold about Roethlisberger and his procilivites in the pocket, I don't think the data is quite that black and white. Another fine offering though from BTSC's newest contributor. I look forward to some of the comments and questions, and I plan on asking several myself about what exactly these numbers may mean and how they should be interpreted.

-Blitz-

..Or does it just appear that way?

I know a lot of people think he should throw the ball away more. And sometimes he should, but statistically Roethlisberger throws the ball away more than most QBs.

A lot of times we're screaming at the T.V for Ben to get rid of the ball quicker right? Well, I guess you could say he either does need to get rid of it quicker or throw it away.

I agree with the getting rid of it quicker argument. But there could be a bad side of getting rid of it quicker(more later). However, others use the "Throw it away argument" which in my opinion is ridiculous. I believe it only looks like Ben holds onto the ball too long because two seconds after the snap, there is already someone in his face and he needs to start running.

Point is, we don't want our Quarterback to change in this area. Many of his big plays have come from holding onto the ball and not throwing it away.

Palmer was sacked only 17 times last year which would indicate he has a great OLine. However, after reading their boards, and forums, it seems as if there OLine is really bad, but his sack numbers were one of the best in the NFL. I am assuming since I have not watched many cincy games except against the Steelers, that he faces a lot of pressure, but gets rid of quickly to avoid the sack.

In turn, what happened? He tossed 20 interceptions and had I believe 8 or 9 returned for touchdowns.

So the question is, would you rather have Roethlisberger take a sack, or get rid of it quickly when hes not ready and possibly throw an interception? You can overcome sacks, but you can not always overcome interceptions. If you get sacked, unless on third down, you still have another shot for the first. Interception? That drives over. Not too mention, Roethlisberger is unbelievable on third down.

Now, the point of the post. According to sports illustrated, these are the total "Intentional Throw Away Passes" and total attempts which gives you how often he throws a pass away. (Only using last years numbers)

Brady - 16/578 - Every 36 passes
Palmer - 8/575 - Every 71 passes
Roethlisberger - 11/404 - Every 36 passes
Rivers - 24/460 - Every 19 passes
Brees - 14/652 - Every 46 passes
Romo - 2/520 - Every 260 passes
Manning - 13/515 - Every 39 passes

As you can see, he throws the ball away enough. Out of the QBs I looked at, only Rivers throws the ball away more. And is way above other QBs like Palmer, and Romo. Even Favre who is not shown here, threw it away only 3 times last year.

The idea of him getting rid of quicker is a legitimate possibility, but as I displayed with Palmer, it could have consequences.

Where Roethlisberger Ranks All Time Statistically

jason97673 — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 23:40:58 -0000

I Just joined and saw the Story about Ben Vs the other QBs in the game. But I guess the topic has been closed, so I would like to provide facts to back up that Roethlisberger historically is the 3rd best in the game today and closing in on Brady and Manning. I see some people talking about how Eli, or Palmer should be listed as better than Ben.